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1.
Reviewing the existing studies of public perception and drawing analogies from other risk technologies, this paper explores the public positions on research and implementation of geoengineering as a means to combat climate change. Existing studies on geoengineering perceptions show low levels of awareness and a lack of knowledge. Hence, existing attitudes on geoengineering can be judged instable and stimulus-dependent. When judged in isolation, at least one third favors the use of geoengineering technologies preferring CDR over SRM technologies; when judged in comparison to other climate mitigation options, approval rates lose considerably support. Moreover, people seem to cautiously support research but oppose deployment while attitude formation depends on personal values and belief systems. The results of the empirical studies were fed into a Delphi workshop with experts for reflecting on the future development of public opinion and for designing a communication and public involvement process that corresponds to the empirical insights gained from the perception studies. 相似文献
2.
Recent attempts to conduct experiments in climate ‘geoengineering’ have demonstrated the deeply controversial nature of this field of scientific research. Social scientists have begun to explore public perceptions of geoengineering, and have documented a significant degree of concern over the effective governance of research and experimentation in this area. Yet, public perception on what constitutes a legitimate geoengineering experiment and how it should be governed remains under-researched. In this article we report on a series of experimental deliberative workshops with members of the public designed to elicit and explicate diverse understandings of geoengineering experiments and their governance. In contrast to previous methods of invited public deliberation, which privilege egalitarian-consensual models of discourse and decision-making, we test a novel approach that places majoritarian, individualistic, and consensual forms of public deliberation on an equal footing. Our study suggests that the perceived controllability of experimental interventions is central to public views on their acceptability, but that controllability is itself a complex, multifaceted quality, drawing together a set of heterogeneous concerns about the purpose and repercussions of scientific work. The citizens who participated in our workshops employed four criteria to adjudicate the acceptability of geoengineering experiments: (1) the degree of containment; (2) the uncertainty surrounding experimental outcomes; (3) the reversibility of impacts; and (4) the scientific purity of the enterprise. We theorize that the public legitimacy of geoengineering experiments depends on variable, context-specific combinations of these criteria, and that technical determinations of the proper ‘scale’ or ‘location’ for geoengineering research will be poor predictors of the sorts of public concerns that will be triggered by further experimentation in this area. 相似文献
3.
Research on geoengineering – deliberate management of the Earth’s climate system – is being increasingly discussed within the science and policy communities. While justified as necessary in order to expand the range of options available to policy makers in the future, geoengineering research has already engendered public controversy. Proposed projects have been protested or cancelled, and calls for a governance framework abound. In this paper, we consider the reasons why geoengineering research might be subject to additional governance and suggest mechanisms that might be usefully applied in developing such a framework. We consider criteria for governance as raised by a review of the growing literature on geoengineering and other controversial scientific topics. We suggest three families of concern that any governance research framework must respond to: the direct physical risks of the research; the transparency and responsibility in decision making for the research; and the larger societal meanings of the research. We review what mechanisms might be available to respond to these three families of concern, and consider how these might apply to geoengineering research. 相似文献
4.
《巴黎协定》引入了全球应对气候变化的1.5℃温控目标,但是没有就其实现路径做出清晰安排。实现1.5℃目标对全球减排提出更高要求,各国自主贡献目标距离该目标有较大差距,常规减排技术和政策也很难完成任务。在此背景下,国际上有关地球工程的讨论日渐升温。《巴黎协定》实际上已经包含了人工造林,碳捕获与封存/碳捕获与利用技术（CCS/CCUS),生物质能利用加CCS（BECCS）等负排放技术,这些都是地球工程范畴的碳移除技术（CDR),除此之外,更具争议性的太阳辐射管理（SRM）技术也引起更多关注。地球工程作为非常规技术选项,在1.5℃目标下的影响评估、技术选择、伦理学和国际治理等一系列问题的研究和探讨都十分必要。本文在分析和探讨上述问题的基础上,就中国应重视和加强地球工程研究与应对提出一些政策建议,指出要将地球工程纳入中国应对气候变化战略大框架,围绕1.5℃目标加强地球工程科学研究,并积极参与地球工程国际治理,合理发出中国声音。 相似文献
5.
David R. Morrow 《Climatic change》2014,123(2):95-100
Stephen Gardiner argues that geoengineering does not meet the “canonical technical definition” of a global public good, and that it is misleading to frame geoengineering as a public good. A public good is something that is nonrival and nonexcludable. Contrary to Gardiner’s claims, geoengineering meets both of these criteria. Framing geoengineering as a public good is useful because it allows commentators to draw on the existing economic, philosophical, and social scientific literature on the governance of public goods. 相似文献
6.
Coral reefs are highly vulnerable to the impacts of rising marine temperatures and marine heatwaves. Mitigating dangerous climate change is essential and urgent, but many reef systems are already suffering on current levels of warming. Geoengineering options are worth exploring to protect the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) from extreme warming conditions, but we contend that they require strong governance and public consultation from the outset. Australian governments are currently funding feasibility testing of three geoengineering proposals for the GBR. Each proposal involves manipulating ocean or atmospheric conditions to lower water temperatures and thereby reduce the threat of mass coral bleaching events. Innovative strategies to protect the GBR and field testing of these is essential, but current laws do not guarantee robust governance for field testing of these technologies. Nor do they provide the foundation for a more coherent national policy on climate intervention technologies more generally. Responsible governance frameworks, including detailed risk assessment and early public consultation, are necessary for geoengineering research to build legitimacy and promote scientific progress.
Key policy insights
Marine heatwaves pose a serious threat to coral reefs, including Australia’s iconic Great Barrier Reef.
Australian governments have recognized the threats of warming waters, and are funding research of geoengineering options for the Great Barrier Reef.
The limited earlier field testing of geoengineering demonstrates the need for specific governance to manage risks, build legitimacy and maintain public support.
Australia requires a framework to govern geoengineering research and development before deployment of such technologies.
7.
针对冰盖的定向地球工程研究旨在增强冰盖稳定性和减缓冰盖物质流失,从源头上减少冰盖对海平面上升的贡献,有望为应对气候变化和保护海岸线争取几百年的时间。冰盖地球工程主要作用在冰底和冰架-海洋界面上,主要途径如下：(1)排干或冻结冰盖底部水来干燥冰床,增强冰盖底部摩擦力;(2)在海洋中建造人造岛来支撑漂浮的冰架;(3)在冰架前端建造水下隔离墙,阻止温暖的海水到达冰川底部以减缓其融化。冰盖地球工程包括数值模拟、方案设计、工程试验和政治法律等诸多方面的研究。国际上的研究团队正在开展数值模拟和方案设计方面的研究,工程试验和政治法律等方面的研究尚未起步。预计工程试验的难度阶梯很可能是从实验室试验开始,到小尺度的野外试验,接着到格陵兰冰盖的入海冰川,最后到南极冰盖的入海冰川。针对冰盖的定向地球工程研究很有可能成为21世纪全球变化领域新兴的研究方向。 相似文献
8.
Alan Robock Douglas G. MacMartin Riley Duren Matthew W. Christensen 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):445-458
Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a possible option for offsetting some anthropogenic radiative forcing, with the goal of reducing some of the associated climatic changes. There are clearly significant uncertainties associated with SRM, and even small-scale experiments that might reduce uncertainty would carry some risk. However, there are also natural and anthropogenic analogs to SRM, such as volcanic eruptions in the case of stratospheric aerosol injection and ship tracks in the case of marine cloud albedo modification. It is essential to understand what we can learn from these analogs in order to validate models, particularly because of the problematic nature of outdoor experiments. It is also important to understand what we cannot learn, as this might better focus attention on what risks would need to be solely examined by numerical models. Stratospheric conditions following a major volcanic eruption, for example, are not the same as those to be expected from intentional geoengineering, both because of confounding effects of volcanic ash and the differences between continuous and impulsive injection of material into the stratosphere. Nonetheless, better data would help validate models; we thus recommend an appropriate plan be developed to better monitor the next large volcanic eruption. Similarly, more could be learned about cloud albedo modification from careful study not only of ship tracks, but of ship and other aerosol emission sources in cloud regimes beyond the narrow conditions under which ship tracks form; this would benefit from improved satellite observing capabilities. 相似文献
9.
Akihiko Ito 《Climatic change》2017,142(1-2):53-66
Geoengineering such as solar radiation management (SRM) can be an emergent option to avoid devastating climatic warming, but its ramifications are barely understood. The perturbation of the Earth’s energy balance, atmospheric dynamics, and hydrological cycling may exert unexpected influences on natural and human systems. In this study, I evaluate the impacts of SRM deployment on terrestrial ecosystem functions using a process-based ecosystem model (the Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases, VISIT) driven by the climate projections by multiple climate models. In the SRM-oriented climate projections, massive injection of sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere lead to increased scattering of solar radiation and delayed anthropogenic climate warming. The VISIT simulations show that canopy light absorption and gross primary production are enhanced in subtropics in spite of the slight decrease of total incident solar radiation. The retarded temperature rise during the deployment period leads to lower respiration, and consequently, an additional net terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake by about 20%. After the SRM termination, however, along with the temperature rise, this carbon is released rapidly to the atmosphere. As a result of altered precipitation and radiation budget, simulated runoff discharge is suppressed mainly in the tropics. These SRM-induced influences on terrestrial ecosystems occurr heterogeneously over the land surface and differed among the ecosystem functions. These responses of terrestrial functions should be taken into account when discussing the costs and benefits of geoengineering. 相似文献
10.
Steve Rayner Clare Heyward Tim Kruger Nick Pidgeon Catherine Redgwell Julian Savulescu 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):499-512
Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols. 相似文献
11.
Stephen M. Gardiner 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):513-525
In early policy work, climate engineering is often described as a global public good. This paper argues that the paradigm example of geoengineering—stratospheric sulfate injection (hereafter ‘SSI’)—does not fit the canonical technical definition of a global public good, and that more relaxed versions are unhelpful. More importantly, it claims that, regardless of the technicalities, the public good framing is seriously misleading, in part because it arbitrarily marginalizes ethical concerns. Both points suggest that more clarity is needed about the aims of geoengineering policy—and especially governance—and that this requires special attention to ethics. 相似文献
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13.
Solar radiation management techniques are a class of geoengineering methods designed to reflect some of the inbound sunlight back into space with the intended effect of arresting further warming of the planet and thus counteracting global warming. In this article we examine current debates on solar radiation management governance, clarifying a number of assumptions that persist and why these require further scrutiny. Building on existing research we articulate a more critical role that the social sciences should be playing in public engagement with solar radiation management. We develop a deliberative focus group methodology that aims to open up deliberation on the technology, focusing explicitly on the kinds of world that its deployment would bring into being. Our findings, based on an analysis of public discourse, suggest that solar radiation management would be publicly acceptable only under very specific, and highly contingent, conditions. Given the sensed implausibility of these conditions being realised in the real world, we set out the implications for solar radiation management governance. We explain why solar radiation management was perceived as likely to create a particular kind of world, one with an increased probability of geopolitical conflict, a new condition of global experimentality, and major threats to democratic governance. How to bring these issues into solar radiation management governance entails an important but challenging role for the social sciences. 相似文献
14.
Adam Corner Karen Parkhill Nick Pidgeon Naomi E. Vaughan 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):938-947
Anthropogenic influence on the climate – and possible societal responses to it – offers a unique window through which to examine the way people think about and relate to the natural world. This paper reports data from four, one-day deliberative workshops conducted with members of the UK public during early 2012. The workshops focused on geoengineering – the deliberate, large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment – as one of three possible responses to climate change (alongside mitigation and adaptation). Here, we explore one of the most pervasive and wide-ranging themes to emerge from the workshops: whether geoengineering represented an unprecedented human intervention into ‘nature’, and what the moral consequences of this might be. Using the concept of ‘messing with nature’ as an analytical lens, we explore public perceptions of geoengineering. We also reflect on why ‘messing with nature’ was such a focal point for debate and disagreement, and whether the prospect of geoengineering may reveal new dimensions to the way that people think about the natural world, and their relationship to it. 相似文献
15.
Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》1996,33(3):291-302
Schemes to modify large-scale environment systems or to control climate have been seriously proposed for over 50 years, some to (1) increase temperatures in high latitudes, (2) increase precipitation, (3) decrease sea ice, (4) create irrigation opportunities or to offset potential global warming by spreading dust in the stratosphere to reflect away an equivalent amount of solar energy. These and other proposed geoengineering schemes are briefly reviewed from a historical perspective. More recently, many such schemes to advertently modify climate have been proposed as cheaper methods to counteract inadvertent climatic modifications than conventional mitigation techniques such as carbon taxes or pollutant emissions regulations. Whereas proponents argue cost effectiveness, critics of geoengineering argue that there is too much uncertainty to either (1) be confident that any geoengineering scheme would work as planned, or (2) that the many decades of international political stability and cooperation needed for the continuous maintenance of such schemes to offset century long inadvertent efforts is problematic. Moreover, there is potential for transboundary conflicts should negative climatic events occur during geoengineering activities since, given all the large uncertainties, it could not be assured to victims of such events that the schemes were entirely unrelated to their damages. Nevertheless, although I believe it would be irresponsible to implement any large-scale geoengineering scheme until scientific, legal and management uncertainties are substantially narrowed, I do agree that, given the potential for large inadvertent climatic changes now being built into the earth system, more systematic study of the potential for geoengineering is probably needed. 相似文献
16.
The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth’s climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of learning and has a very simplistic representation of climate change impacts. Our analysis suggests three main conclusions. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for CO2 abatement can be an economically ineffective strategy. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on, thus far, deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace CO2 abatement in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement can fail an ethical test regarding intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, in violation of principles of intergenerational justice which demands that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations. 相似文献
17.
Effects of solar radiation modification on the ocean carbon cycle: An earth system modeling study 
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下载免费PDF全文 Solar radiation modification (SRM, also termed as geoengineering) has been proposed as a potential option to counteract anthropogenic warming. The underlying idea of SRM is to reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the atmosphere and surface, thus offsetting some amount of global warming. Here, the authors use an Earth system model to investigate the impact of SRM on the global carbon cycle and ocean biogeochemistry. The authors simulate the temporal evolution of global climate and the carbon cycle from the pre-industrial period to the end of this century under three scenarios: the RCP4.5 CO2 emission pathway, the RCP8.5 CO2 emission pathway, and the RCP8.5 CO2 emission pathway with the implementation of SRM to maintain the global mean surface temperature at the level of RCP4.5. The simulations show that SRM, by altering global climate, also affects the global carbon cycle. Compared to the RCP8.5 simulation without SRM, by the year 2100, SRM reduces atmospheric CO2 by 65 ppm mainly as a result of increased CO2 uptake by the terrestrial biosphere. However, SRM-induced change in atmospheric CO2 and climate has a small effect in mitigating ocean acidification. By the year 2100, relative to RCP8.5, SRM causes a decrease in surface ocean hydrogen ion concentration ([H+]) by 6% and attenuates the seasonal amplitude of [H+] by about 10%. The simulations also show that SRM has a small effect on globally integrated ocean net primary productivity relative to the high-CO2 simulation without SRM. This study contributes to a comprehensive assessment of the effects of SRM on both the physical climate and the global carbon cycle.摘要太阳辐射干预地球工程是应对气候变化的备用应急措施. 其基本思路是通过减少到达大气和地表的太阳辐射, 从一定程度上抵消温室效应引起的全球变暖. 本研究使用地球系统模式模拟理想化太阳辐射干预方法对海洋碳循环的影响. 模拟试验中, 通过直接减少太阳辐射将RCP8.5 CO2排放情景下的全球平均温度降低到RCP4.5情景下的温度. 模拟结果表明, 到2100年, 相对于RCP8.5情景, 减少太阳辐射通过增加陆地碳汇, 使大气CO2浓度降低了65 ppm. 减少太阳辐射对海洋酸化影响很小. 到 2100 年, 相对于RCP8.5情景, 减少太阳辐射使海表平均氢离子浓度减少6%, pH上升0.03, 同时使海表平均氢离子浓度的季节变化振幅衰减约10%. 模拟结果还表明, 减少太阳辐射对全球海洋净初级生产力的影响较小. 本研究有助于深化我们对太阳辐射干预地球工程的气候和碳循环效应的认知和综合评估. 相似文献
18.
研究地球工程对海洋酸化的影响对于评估地球工程对全球气候和环境的影响有重要意义。文中使用中等复杂程度的地球系统模式,模拟了典型CO2高排放情景RCP8.5下,实施太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋表面的pH和文石（碳酸钙的一种亚稳形态）饱和度的影响,并定量分析了各环境因子对海洋酸化影响的机理。模拟结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年,相对于工业革命前水平,全球海洋表面平均pH下降了0.43,文石饱和度下降了1.77。相对于RCP8.5情景,2100年地球工程情景下全球海洋表面平均pH增加了0.003,而文石饱和度降低了0.16。地球工程通过改变溶解无机碳、碱度、温度等环境因子影响海洋酸化。相对于RCP8.5情景,实施地球工程引起的溶解无机碳浓度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均减小,碱度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均增大,温度的降低使pH增大而使文石饱和度减小。总体而言,太阳辐射管理地球工程可以降低全球温度,但无法减缓海洋酸化。 相似文献
19.
In this paper, we extend the work of Goes, Tuana, and Keller (Climatic Change 2011; GTK) by reexamining the economic benefit, of aerosol geoengineering. GTK found that a complete substitution of geoengineering for CO2 abatement fails a cost-benefit test over a wide range of scenarios regarding (i) the probability that such a program would be aborted and (ii) the economic damages caused by geoengineering itself. In this paper, we reframe the conditions under which GTK assumed geoengineering would/could be used. In so doing, we demonstrate that geoengineering may pass a cost-benefit test over a wide range of scenarios originally considered by GTK. 相似文献
20.
地球工程作为人类影响全球气候的重要工程手段,具有重要的现实意义和科学价值。目前学界在地球工程对极端降水的影响研究方面还处于初始阶段。在这种背景下,基于BNU-ESM模式中地球工程(G4实验)和非地球工程(RCP4.5)情景下的日值降水数据,以95%和99%分位数作为强降水和极端强降水的阈值,分别对比分析两种情景下中国及七大地理分区的强降水和极端强降水在2010—2099年(整个研究时段)、2020—2069年(地球工程实施期间)和2070—2099年(地球工程实施结束)的差异特征。结果表明:(1) 2010—2099年地球工程有利于中国多数地区强降水量和极端强降水量的增加;(2)在实施地球工程的2020—2069年,整体上抑制了中国多数地区强降水量和极端强降水量;(3)在地球工程实施结束后的2070—2099年,地球工程后续影响整体上有利于中国多数地区强降水量和极端强降水量的增加;(4)不同研究时段中国七大地理分区的强降水量和极端强降水量变化趋势均有一定区域差异,且这种差异特征在不同研究时期表现在不同地区。 相似文献