共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 671 毫秒
1.
Assessing Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: A Nebraska Case Study 总被引：14，自引：6，他引：14
Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. It was hypothesized that the key biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought vulnerability were climate, soils, land use, and access to irrigation. The framework for derivation of an agricultural drought vulnerability map was created through development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. The results indicate that the most vulnerable areas to agricultural drought were non-irrigatedcropland and rangeland on sandy soils, located in areas with a very high probability of seasonal crop moisture deficiency. The identification of drought vulnerability is an essential step in addressing the issue of drought vulnerability in the state and can lead to mitigation-oriented drought management. 相似文献
2.
Building seismic vulnerability assessment plays an important role in formulating pre-disaster mitigation strategies for developing countries. The occurrence of high-resolution satellite sensors has greatly motivated it by providing a promising approach to obtain building information. However, this also brings a big challenge to the accurate building extraction and its coherent integration with the assessment model. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how to extract building attributes from high-resolution remote sensing imagery using the object-based image analysis (OBIA) method, so as to accurately and conveniently assess building seismic vulnerability by the combination of in situ field data. A general framework for the assessment of building seismic vulnerability is presented, including (1) the extraction of building information using OBIA, (2) building height estimation, and (3) the support vector machine (SVM)-based building seismic vulnerability assessment. Particularly, an integrated solution is proposed that merges the strengths of multiple spatial contextual relationships and some typical image object measures, under the unified framework to improve building information extraction at different scale levels as well as for different interest objects. With the aid of 35 building samples from two powerful earthquakes in China, the cloud-free WorldView-2 images and some building structure parameters from field survey were used to quantity the grades of building seismic vulnerability in Wuhan Optics Valley, China. The results show that all 48 buildings among the study area have been well detected with an overall accuracy of 80.67 % and the mean error of heights estimated from building shadow is less than 2 m. This indicates that the integrated analysis strategy based on OBIA is suitable for extracting the building information from high-resolution remote sensing imagery. Additionally, the assessment results using SVM show that the building seismic vulnerability is statistically significantly related to structure types and building heights. Both the proposed OBIA method and its integration strategy with SVM are easily implemented and provide readily interpretable assessment results for building seismic vulnerability. This reveals that the proposed method has a great potential to assist urban planners for making local disaster mitigation planning through the prioritization of intervention measures, such as the reinforcement of walls and the dismantlement of endangered houses. 相似文献
3.
4.
Shabana Khan 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1587-1607
An understanding of vulnerability is not only crucial for the survival of the exposed communities to extreme events, but also for their adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability affects community participation in hazard mitigation, influences emergency response and governs adaptive capacity for the changing environmental and hazards characteristics. However, despite increased awareness, assessments and understanding of the processes that produce vulnerability, disaster risks prevail. This raises questions on the effectiveness of vulnerability assessments and their applications for hazard mitigation and adaptation. The literature includes a range of vulnerability assessment methods, wherein frequently the selection of any particular method is governed by the research objectives. On the other hand, hazard mitigation plans and policies even though mention vulnerability, their implementation pays less attention to the variations in its nature and underlying causes. This paper explores possible reasons for such gaps by exploring a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand. It brings out the limitations of different vulnerability assessment methods in representing the local vulnerability and challenges they bring in planning for the vulnerability reduction. It argues that vulnerability assessment based on any particular method, such as deprivation index, principle component analysis, composite vulnerability index with or without weight, may not reveal the actual vulnerability of a place, and therefore, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment is needed. 相似文献
5.
An integrated indicator framework for spatial assessment of industrial and social vulnerability to indirect disaster losses 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The focus of this study is on multi-dimensional vulnerability of regions to indirect disaster losses. An integrated indicator framework has been developed which captures the multi-layered vulnerability drivers in industrial production systems and also accounts for the social fragilities and coping capacities in communities. By combining industrial vulnerability and social vulnerability spatially, and proposing a methodology to account between their interactions, the total vulnerability to indirect risks of regions is revealed. The outcome of the framework is a ranking of industrial sectors and geographic areas according to their vulnerability against indirect losses. It answers the question which of the two affected regions is in a better position to cope with indirect consequences in a disaster. Indicators provide a flexible framework for the comparison and integration of different data types and allow the combination of social as well as economic aspects. Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology was applied to analyze direct and indirect dependencies within the selected social and industrial vulnerability indicators. The hierarchical indicator system has been implemented in a software system based on multi-criteria decision theory (MCDA) with an interactive interface to take into account a broader range of expert judgement. The methodology was applied in a case study in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Germany for 16 different industrial sectors. The approach helps to identify particular vulnerable processes and points out where mitigation measures could be implemented most effectively. 相似文献
6.
针对目前生态环境脆弱性评价中存在的评价指标选取片面性、脆弱性动态变化研究薄弱的问题,基于DPRISM概念框架选取22个指标构建评价指标体系,定量研究岷江上游2000年-2014年生态环境脆弱性动态变化过程。结合岷江上游生态环境特点,建立基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理(DPSIRM)概念框架的生态环境脆弱性评价模型,利用多源数据,包括气象数据,遥感数据,基本地理数据,社会经济数据,计算出EVI(Ecological Vulnerability Index)值,并利用生态环境脆弱性综合指数及其变化率分析研究区生态环境脆弱性时空变化规律。结果表明:①2000年-2014年间研究区生态环境脆弱性呈西部向东部逐渐递减的空间分布特点;②三个时间段内脆弱性均以微度、轻度、中度为主,面积比例分别为:84.15%、84.42%、87.13%;③三个时间段内,研究区生态环境脆弱性综合指数变化率R均小于0,表明研究区生态环境脆弱性值在逐年减小;④14年间,岷江上游生态环境脆弱性呈逐步改善趋势,但该趋势不明显,还需长期坚持生态治理政策。 相似文献
7.
An assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability at the provincial scale in China based on the DEA method 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dapeng Huang Renhe Zhang Zhiguo Huo Fei Mao Youhao E Wei Zheng 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1575-1586
China suffers frequent and severe floods. A lot of studies have been done in the field of flood disaster, including flood vulnerability assessment. This paper develops assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability based on the data envelopment analysis method and identifies multidimensional flood vulnerability??population, death, agriculture and economy??at the provincial scale in China using flood damage data and socioeconomic statistical data from 2001 to 2010. Based on the characteristics of multidimensional flood vulnerability of each province, some suggestions for flood prevention and mitigation are suggested. The assessment models of multidimensional flood vulnerability are simple and can be used for vulnerability analysis of natural disaster at regional or national levels. The assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability can provide multifaceted information that contributes to a deeper understanding of the flood vulnerability and provides a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of flood prevention and mitigation designs. 相似文献
8.
J. Zeng Z. Y. Zhu J. L. Zhang T. P. Ouyang S. F. Qiu Y. Zou T. Zeng 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(1):173-182
Social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards aims to identify vulnerable populations and provide decision makers with
scientific basis for their disaster prevention and mitigation decisions. A new method based on remote sensing is presented
here to establish a model of social vulnerability for county-scale regions that lack of relative data. To calculate population
density, which is the most important indicator in social vulnerability assessment, first, a statistical model is established
to estimate the population on village level. Then a new concept defined as “population density based on land use” is created
to replace the arithmetic population density. The former has taken the dynamic human distribution related to land use into
account; thus, it can map the population distribution more realistically. The other two indicators are age structure and distance
to hospital. The application of this method to the Luogang District of Guangzhou, South China demonstrated its capability
of providing high spatial resolution and reasonable social vulnerability for social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards. 相似文献
9.
Santos Pedro Pinto Tavares Alexandre Oliveira Freire Paula Rilo Ana 《Natural Hazards》2017,93(1):77-95
The assessment of vulnerability provides valuable knowledge in the risk assessment steps of a risk governance process. Given the multiscale, multilevel, and multisectorial aspects of flood risk, the diversified entities that directly and indirectly intervene in risk management require specific outputs from the assessment studies. Urban areas in estuarine margins are particularly exposed and vulnerable to flooding. Such interface conditions are found in the Old City Centre of the Seixal, located in the Tagus estuary, Portugal. Here, two distinct methodologies were applied for the assessment of territorial vulnerability. A regional, lower-scale, methodology explores the application of the statistical procedure based on the SoVI® at the statistical block level. A second, local and higher-scale, methodology is based in data collected through field matrices at the building and statistical sub-block level. Comparison of results revealed that the lower-scale assessment provides information on the vulnerability drivers at the regional and municipal level. Nevertheless, only at a higher-scale, it is possible to characterize and differentiate the smaller geographical units of analysis that compose the Old City Centre of Seixal. The lower-scale vulnerability assessment allows a strategic response, based on adaptation measures such as spatial planning, institutional capacity building and public awareness. The local level assessment provides more accurate knowledge to support local emergency planning and the allocation of operational and material resources at the urban level. Nevertheless, rather than antagonistic, both models can be considered as complementary, having in mind the requirements of an holistic flood risk governance model.
相似文献10.
The assessment of vulnerability provides valuable knowledge in the risk assessment steps of a risk governance process. Given the multiscale, multilevel, and multisectorial aspects of flood risk, the diversified entities that directly and indirectly intervene in risk management require specific outputs from the assessment studies. Urban areas in estuarine margins are particularly exposed and vulnerable to flooding. Such interface conditions are found in the Old City Centre of the Seixal, located in the Tagus estuary, Portugal. Here, two distinct methodologies were applied for the assessment of territorial vulnerability. A regional, lower-scale, methodology explores the application of the statistical procedure based on the SoVI® at the statistical block level. A second, local and higher-scale, methodology is based in data collected through field matrices at the building and statistical sub-block level. Comparison of results revealed that the lower-scale assessment provides information on the vulnerability drivers at the regional and municipal level. Nevertheless, only at a higher-scale, it is possible to characterize and differentiate the smaller geographical units of analysis that compose the Old City Centre of Seixal. The lower-scale vulnerability assessment allows a strategic response, based on adaptation measures such as spatial planning, institutional capacity building and public awareness. The local level assessment provides more accurate knowledge to support local emergency planning and the allocation of operational and material resources at the urban level. Nevertheless, rather than antagonistic, both models can be considered as complementary, having in mind the requirements of an holistic flood risk governance model. 相似文献
11.
Land use change scenarios and associated groundwater impacts in a protected peri-urban area 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Land use changes in peri-urban areas are usually associated with significant impacts on groundwater resources due to alteration
of the recharge regime as well as through the establishment of pollution sources. Quantifying the aforementioned impacts and
assessing the vulnerability of the groundwater resources is an important step for the better management and protection of
the aquifers. In the present study, a physically based, distributed hydrologic model has been used to identify the impacts
from specific land use change scenarios in the protected area of Loutraki catchment. A vulnerability assessment method has
been also implemented to provide a decision support tool to the land planning authorities and also hydrologic mitigation measures
for the sustainable development of the area have been proposed. The hydrologic impacts of the land use scenarios include a
5% reduction in the annual recharge of the study aquifer for scenario 1 (doubling of the current urban areas) and 7% decrease
for scenario 2 (tripling of the current urban areas). Nevertheless, these impacts can be minimised if small-scale artificial
recharge infrastructure is developed and the land planning measures suggested through the vulnerability and recharge maps
will be followed. 相似文献
12.
Marwan Ghanem Waseem Ahmad Yacoub Keilan Farah Sawaftah 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(9):347
A groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out in order to understand and control the pollution sources affecting vulnerable regions in two adjacent catchments (Sarida and Natuf), located in the western middle part of the West Bank. The catchments were subjected to groundwater vulnerability mapping and assessment using the modified German State Geological Surveys (GLA method) method called Protective Cover and Infiltration Conditions method (PI method) via ArcGis 2014.2 software package in February of 2016. The results showed that the study area has high effectiveness of protective cover (P-factor), which was obtained by overlying top soil, bedrock, subsoil, and recharge layers. On the other hand, the dominant flow types, land usage, slopes, and topographical classification layers were overlaid to get the infiltration conditions (I-factor). The interaction between the two main factors was carried out in order to obtain the final spatially distributed π-factor values (vulnerability map), which was classified into four vulnerability classes. Statistically, about 4% of the overall area was of extreme vulnerability and concentrated along the sinking streams, while 22% was of low vulnerability and existed outside the main watersheds, followed by high vulnerability with 26%. The largest proportion with 48% of the overall area was of moderate vulnerability to groundwater contamination. 相似文献
13.
Empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings exposed to slow-moving landslides at medium and large scales 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dario Peduto Settimio Ferlisi Gianfranco Nicodemo Diego Reale Giovanni Pisciotta Giovanni Gullà 《Landslides》2017,14(6):1993-2007
Slow-moving landslides yearly induce huge economic losses worldwide in terms of damage to facilities and interruption of human activities. Within the landslide risk management framework, the consequence analysis is a key step entailing procedures mainly based on identifying and quantifying the exposed elements, defining an intensity criterion and assessing the expected losses. This paper presents a two-scale (medium and large) procedure for vulnerability assessment of buildings located in areas affected by slow-moving landslides. Their intensity derives from Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) satellite data analysis, which in the last decade proved to be capable of providing cost-effective long-term displacement archives. The analyses carried out on two study areas of southern Italy (one per each of the addressed scales) lead to the generation, as an absolute novelty, of both empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings in slow-moving landslide-affected areas. These curves, once further validated, can be valuably used as tools for consequence forecasting purposes and, more in general, for planning the most suitable slow-moving landslide risk mitigation strategies. 相似文献
14.
Even advanced technological societies are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and financial disasters, such as the 2008 collapse of the US housing and financial markets. Both resulted from unrecognized or underappreciated weaknesses in hazard assessment and mitigation policies. These policies relied on models that proved inadequate for reasons including inaccurate conceptualization of the problem, use of a too-short historic record, and neglect of interconnections. Japanese hazard models did not consider the possibility of multiple fault segments failing together, causing a much larger earthquake than anticipated, and neglected historical data for much larger tsunamis than planned for. Mitigation planning underestimated the vulnerability of nuclear power plants, due to a belief in nuclear safety. The US economic models did not consider the hazard that would result if many homeowners could not pay their mortgages, and assumed, based on a short history, that housing prices would keep rising faster than interest rates. They did not anticipate the vulnerability of the financial system to a drop in housing prices, due to belief that markets functioned best without government regulation. Preventing both types of disasters from recurring involves balancing the costs and benefits of mitigation policies. A crucial aspect of this balancing is that the benefits must be estimated using models with significant uncertainties to infer the probabilities of the future events, as we illustrate using a simple model for tsunami mitigation. Improving hazard models is important because overestimating or underestimating the hazard leads to too much or too little mitigation. Thus, although one type of disaster has natural causes and the other has economic causes, comparison provides insights for improving hazard assessment and mitigation policies. Instead of viewing such disasters as unpredictable and unavoidable “black swan” events, they are better viewed as “gray swans” that—although novel and outside recent experience—can be better foreseen and mitigated. 相似文献
15.
In the recent past, Australia has experienced several catastrophic hazard events and the frequency and intensity of such events is expected to increase in the future. Natural hazards can rarely be fully prevented, yet their losses can be minimized if the necessary preparedness and mitigation actions are taken before an event occurs. Identification of vulnerable groups is an important first step in any preparedness and emergency management planning process. Social vulnerability refers to population characteristics that influence the capacity of a community to prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. Factors that contribute to social vulnerability are often hidden and difficult to capture. This study analyzes the relative levels of social vulnerability of communities at the urban?Cbush interface in the Blue Mountains and Ku-ring-gai local council areas in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. We tested whether a standardized social vulnerability index could be developed using a pre-existing set of indicators. We created an exploratory principle component analysis model using Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 census data at the Census Collection District (CCD) level. We identified variables contributing to social vulnerability and used the component scores to develop a social vulnerability index. Finally, the social vulnerability index was mapped at the CCD level. Our results indicate that both contributors to and the level of social vulnerability differ between and within communities. In other words, they are spatially variable. They show different spatial patterns across the areas, which provides useful information for identifying communities that are most likely to experience negative disaster impacts due to their socio-demographic characteristics. 相似文献
16.
作为防灾减灾的重要措施之一,滑坡风险评价已经成为近年来国际上滑坡研究的热点,并形成了较为完备的滑坡风险管理体系。国内的滑坡风险研究则起步较晚,滑坡风险评价的关键支撑技术体系尚未建立。本文对滑坡风险评价中的关键理论和方法进行梳理,阐述了国际滑坡风险评价的理论框架和技术流程,介绍了国内外滑坡易发性、危险性和风险评价的最新进展,评述了滑坡易发性评价、扩展范围预测、频率分析以及承灾体易损性评价的主要方法,阐明了现阶段滑坡风险评价的重点领域和前沿科学问题,并对滑坡灾害的风险评价提出了三点展望。 相似文献
17.
D Anantha Rao Pradeep K Naik Sunil K Jain K Vinod Kumar E N Dhanamjaya Rao 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(4):49
Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution is an essential pre-requisite for better planning of an area. We present the groundwater vulnerability assessment in parts of the Yamuna Nagar District, Haryana State, India in an area of about \(800 \hbox { km}^{2}\), considered to be a freshwater zone in the foothills of the Siwalik Hill Ranges. Such areas in the Lower Himalayas form good groundwater recharge zones, and should always be free from contamination. But, the administration has been trying to promote industrialization along these foothill zones without actually assessing the environmental consequences such activities may invite in the future. GIS-DRASTIC model has been used with field based data inputs for studying the vulnerability assessment. But, we find that inclusion electrical conductivity (EC) as a model parameter makes it more robust. Therefore, we rename it as GIS-DRASTIC-EC model. The model identifies three vulnerability zones such as low, moderate and high with an areal extent of 5%, 80% and 15%, respectively. On the basis of major chemical parameters alone, the groundwater in the foothill zones apparently looks safe, but analysis with the help of GIS-DRASTIC-EC model gives a better perspective of the groundwater quality in terms of identifying the vulnerable areas. 相似文献
18.
Saurabh Baruah Goutam Kashyap Boruah Sangeeta Sharma Washim Akram Hoque Timangshu Chetia Chandan Dey 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2020,14(2):112-127
ABSTRACTThe concept of seismic vulnerability is a yard-stick of damage estimation from a probable earthquake considering physical cum social dimension and enables a basis for decision-makers to develop preparedness and mitigation strategies. We aim at vulnerability assessment of the typical urban system of capital city Shillong situated on hilly terrain. High-resolution satellite imagery of Shillong facilitates analysis of building footprints, communication network, and open ground. Different building typologies are identified taking into account the building’s structural configuration assessed through a rapid visual survey of more than 15% of total residential households. Slope map demarcates the landslide-prone area through discrete elevation modelling. A methodology incorporating several parameters e.g. building typology, slope angle, shear wave velocity characteristics, geomorphology, and the number of occupants in correlation with a physical measurement of vulnerability is presented and is applied to estimate the dimension of vulnerability. Additionally, MASW survey indicates lithology up to 30?m deep along with the existence of stiff soil and rocks at different depths whereas resonant frequency is identified to be in the range of 6–8?Hz through H/V ratio. Integrating all, it is observed that more than 60% of Shillong city falls under moderate to higher vulnerability and the rest is less vulnerable. 相似文献
19.
Flood risks in a dynamic urban agglomeration: a conceptual and methodological assessment framework 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Annemarie Müller 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1931-1950
The analysis of risk and its causes is a crucial prerequisite for the development of risk prevention and mitigation measures in the scope of disaster risk management. This paper investigates on the problem of annually occurring floods in Santiago de Chile applying a framework for risk assessment, especially developed for the usage in a large urban area. A case-specific set of variables and indicators was compiled to show the relevant components and their interrelations influencing the flood risk and to provide a tool for monitoring and evaluating their changes over time. Methods for gathering information about the three components of risk, that is, hazard, elements at risk, and vulnerability, comprise the interpretation of very high resolution satellite data, the analysis of GIS, and census data as well as household surveys and expert interviews. The work shows how the assessment framework can be applied in practice to derive a geodata-based flood risk map at the scale of the administrative unit of a building block that can be used as a local decision-making tool. 相似文献
20.
地质灾害易发性评价是国土空间规划和区域地质灾害防灾减灾的重要依据。为探索适合云南高原低山丘陵区地质灾害易发性评价方法,论文选择云南省昆明市五华区为典型研究区,选择工程地质岩组、距断裂构造线距离、高程、坡度、坡向、坡面曲率、距公路线距离和土地利用类型等8个因素,应用基于贝叶斯理论的证据权法进行地质灾害易发性评价,通过对各因素各分级（分类）综合证据权重的近似学生化检验（Student-T）优化了各因素的分级（分类）方案。采用文中所构建模型评价得出的易发性分区结果表明,89.9%和9.1%的地灾点落入高和中易发区,对比分析显示建模结果与地质灾害发育情况吻合度高,较好地揭示了研究区地质灾害易发性特征,可为昆明市五华区及云南高原其它低山丘陵区地质灾害防治规划提供参考。 相似文献