首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 531 毫秒
1.
Quantitative analysis of consequences (in terms of expected monetary losses) induced by slow-moving landslide mechanisms to buildings or infrastructure networks is a key step in the landslide risk management framework. It can influence risk mitigation policies as well as help authorities in charge of land management in addressing/prioritizing interventions or restoration works. This kind of analysis generally requires multidisciplinary approaches, which cannot disregard a thorough knowledge of landslide mechanisms, and rich datasets that are seldom available as testified by the limited number of examples in the scientific literature. With reference to the well-documented case study of Lungro town (Calabria region, southern Italy)—severely affected by slow-moving landslides of different types—the present paper proposes and implements a multi-step procedure for monetary loss forecasting associated with different landslide kinematic/damage scenarios. Procedures to typify landslide mechanisms and physical vulnerability analysis, previously tested in the same area, are here appropriately merged to derive both kinematic and damage scenarios to the exposed buildings. Then, the outcomes are combined with economic data in order to forecast monetary loss at municipal scale. The proposed method and the obtained results, once further validated, could stand as reference case for other urban areas in similar geo-environmental contexts in order to derive useful information on expected direct consequences unless slow-moving landslide risk mitigation measures are taken.  相似文献   

2.
Quantitative vulnerability estimation for scenario-based landslide hazards   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  
Within the engineering profession and natural sciences, vulnerability is widely accepted to be defined as the degree of loss (or damage) to a given element or set of elements within the area affected by a threat. The value of vulnerability is expressed nondimensionally between 0 and 1. It is a fundamental component in the evaluation of landslide risk, and its accurate estimation is essential in making a reasonable prediction of the landslide consequences. Obviously, vulnerability to landslides depends not only on the characteristics of the element(s) at risk but also on the landslide intensity. This paper summarizes previous research on vulnerability to landslides and proposes a new quantitative model for vulnerability of structures and persons based on landslide intensity and resistance of exposed elements. In addition, an approximate function is suggested for estimating the vulnerability of persons in structures. Different methods for estimating the vulnerability of various elements to slow or rapid landslides are discussed. Finally, the application of the new model is illustrated through an example.  相似文献   

3.
Landslides are the most common natural disasters in mountainous regions, being responsible for significant loss of life as well as damage to critical infrastructure and properties. As the world population grows, people tend to move to higher locations to construct buildings, thereby making structures vulnerable due to landslides. This paper discusses previous research on the vulnerability assessment of structures exposed to landslides and presents a modified semi-quantitative approach to assess the scenario-based physical vulnerability of buildings based on their resistance ability and landslide intensity. Resistance ability is determined by integrating expert knowledge-based resistance factors assigned to five primary building parameters. Landslide intensity matrix defining different intensity levels is proposed based on combinations of landslide velocity and volume. Physical vulnerability of buildings is estimated and classified as class I, II or III for scenario-based low to very high landslide intensity. Finally, the application of the model is illustrated with a case study of 71 buildings from Garhwal Himalayas, India.  相似文献   

4.
Landslide risk assessment is based on spatially integrating landslide hazard with exposed elements-at-risk to determine their vulnerability and to express the expected direct and indirect losses. There are three components that are relevant for expressing landslide hazard: spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities. At a medium-scale analysis, this is often done by first deriving a landslide susceptibility map, and to determine the three types of probabilities on the basis of landslide inventories linked to particular triggering events. The determination of spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities depend mainly on the availability of sufficiently complete historical records of past landslides, which in general are rare in most countries (e.g., India, etc.). In this paper, we presented an approach to use available historical information on landslide inventories for landslide hazard and risk analysis on a medium scale (1:25,000) in a perennially typical data-scarce environment in Darjeeling Himalayas (India). We demonstrate how the incompleteness in the resulting landslide database influences the various components in the calculation of specific risk of elements-at-risk (e.g., buildings, population, roads, etc.). We incorporate the uncertainties involved in the risk estimation and illustrate the range of expected losses in the form of maximum and minimum loss curves. The study demonstrates that even in data-scarce environments, quantitative landslide risk assessment is a viable option, as long as the uncertainties involved are expressed.  相似文献   

5.
The aim of this study is to quantify the landslide risk for individual buildings using spatial data in a GIS environment. A landslide-prone area from Prahova Rivers’ Subcarpathian Valley was chosen because of its associated landslide hazards and its impact upon human settlements and activities. The bivariate landslide susceptibility index (LSI) was applied to calculate the spatial probability of landslides occurrence. The Landslide Susceptibility Index map was produced by numerically adding the weighted thematic maps for slope gradient and aspect, water table, soil texture, lithology, built environment and land use. Validation curves were obtained using the random-split strategy for two combinations of variables: (a) all seven variables and (b) three variables which showed highest individual success rates with respect to landslides occurrences (slope gradient, water table and land use). The principal pre-disposing factors were found to be slope steepness and groundwater table. Vulnerability was established as the degree of loss to individual buildings resulting from a potential damaging landslide with a given return period in an area. Risk was calculated by multiplying the spatial probability of landslides by the vulnerability for each building and summing up the losses for the selected return period.  相似文献   

6.
Preparation of reliable landslide hazard and risk maps is crucial for hazard mitigation and risk management. In recent years, various approaches have been developed for quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. However, possibly due to the lack of new data, very few of these hazard and risk maps were updated after their first generation. In this study, aiming at an ongoing assessment, a novel approach for updating landslide hazard and risk maps based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) is introduced. The study was performed in the Arno River basin (central Italy) where most mass movements are slow-moving landslides which are properly within the detection precision of PSI point targets. In the Arno River basin, the preliminary hazard and risk assessment was performed by Catani et al. (Landslides 2:329–342, 2005) using datasets prior to 2002. In this study, the previous hazard and risk maps were updated using PSI point targets processed from 4 years (2003–2006) of RADARSAT images. Landslide hazard and risk maps for five temporal predictions of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30 years were updated with the exposure of losses estimated in Euro (€). In particular, the result shows that in 30 years a potential loss of approximate €3.22 billion is expected due to these slow-moving landslides detected by PSI point targets.  相似文献   

7.
Assessing landslide exposure in areas with limited landslide information   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  
Landslide risk assessment is often a difficult task due to the lack of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance, landslide magnitude and vulnerability. The probability of occurrence of landslides is often very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. In this paper, a qualitative procedure for assessing the exposure of elements at risk is presented for an area of the Apulia region (Italy) where no temporal information on landslide occurrence is available. Given these limitations in data availability, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. The qualitative analysis was carried out using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation method in a global information system. A landslide susceptibility composite index map and four asset index maps (physical, social, economic and environmental) were generated separately through a hierarchical procedure of standardising and weighting. The four asset index maps were combined in order to obtain a qualitative weighted assets map, which, combined with the landslide susceptibility composite index map, has provided the final qualitative landslide exposure map. The resulting map represents the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to demonstrate how such an exposure map could be used in a basic risk assessment, a quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out, and the temporal probability of landslides was estimated, on the basis of the expert knowledge. Although the proposed methodology for the exposure assessment did not consider the landslide run-out and vulnerability quantification, the results obtained allow to rank the municipalities in terms of increasing exposure and risk level and, consequently, to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide risk mitigation plans.  相似文献   

8.
滑坡灾害风险评价的关键理论与技术方法   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
滑坡灾害风险评估主要包括滑坡敏感性分析、危险性评价和风险评估3个不同层次的内容。但是,滑坡地质灾害本身的复杂性和滑坡强度的确定、滑坡发生的时空概率估算、承灾体的易损性时空概率分析等难点问题的存在,无疑阻碍了滑坡风险定量评估的推广和应用。在系统分析国内外滑坡灾害风险评估研究成果的基础上,对滑坡灾害风险评价的技术体系进行了总结,提出了不同层次滑坡灾害的研究内容和相应的评价方法;分析了实现滑坡风险有效评价涉及到的难点问题,并结合降雨和地震诱发的滑坡灾害危险性评价国内外的实践,提出了中国未来滑坡灾害风险评价研究的主要内容和技术方法。  相似文献   

9.
Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used.  相似文献   

10.
In hilly areas, highway projects can be a cause of landslides as well as an element of vulnerability due to landslides. Hence, landslide susceptibility mapping of highway corridors can substantially mitigate loss of life and property. For this, a Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Model (LSAM) was developed for a corridor of 27 km along NH 10 in the East Sikkim. Landslide inducing factors viz. Aspect, Distance from Fault, Distance from Road, Drainage Density, Land use and Land cover, Lithology, Plan Curvature, Rainfall, Slope, Soil Depth, and Soil Texture were considered for the study. Results show that areas in proximity to the highway and areas with steeper slope had a higher landslide susceptibility than otherwise. Spatial explicit sensitivity analysis indicated that LSAM was sensitive to distance from the highway and slope. Vehicle vulnerability assessment of base year and horizon years showed that vulnerability increased through time. LSAM is appropriate for hazard mitigation for areas with poor historical data on landslides.  相似文献   

11.
区域滑坡灾害人口易损性及人口伤亡风险预测研究是区域滑坡灾害预警预报工作的一个重要环节,该研究对提高预警预报工作的针对性和有效性具有关键作用.在对浙江省永嘉县有关资料进行分析的基础上,从研究区人口年龄结构、居民对滑坡灾害风险的防范意识、政府对滑坡灾害的重视程度及滑坡灾害预警预报体系的完善程度4个方面评价了研究区人口易损性,并给出了计算人口易损性的公式,据此得到了永嘉县人口易损性分布图.根据永嘉县的实际情况,提出了耕地人口密度的概念.综合人口易损性分布图、人口密度分布图和滑坡灾害易发性预测图得到了研究区受威胁人口伤亡风险预测图,为当地政府职能部门实施滑坡灾害风险的控制和管理提供决策依据.  相似文献   

12.
分析了滑坡灾害风险评估的基本方法,通过西五路工程实例介绍滑坡灾害风险评估的基本步骤:(1)全面勘察该地区地理地质环境,包括滑坡各项性质及该地区地面设施和人员分布。(2)进行危险性和易损性分析,包括计算滑坡稳定性和滑坡失稳概率。(3)在危险性和易损性分析基础上进行期望损失分析。  相似文献   

13.
A procedure for landslide risk assessment is presented. The underlying hypothesis is that statistical relationships between past landslide occurrences and conditioning variables can be used to develop landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk models. The latter require also data on past damages. Landslides occurred during the last 50 years and subsequent damages were analysed. Landslide susceptibility models were obtained by means of Spatial Data Analysis techniques and independently validated. Scenarios defined on the basis of past landslide frequency and magnitude were used to transform susceptibility into quantitative hazard models. To assess vulnerability, a detailed inventory of exposed elements (infrastructures, buildings, land resources) was carried out. Vulnerability values (0–1) were obtained by comparing damages experienced in the past by each type of element with its actual value. Quantitative risk models, with a monetary meaning, were obtained for each element by integrating landslide hazard and vulnerability models. Landslide risk models showing the expected losses for the next 50 years were thus obtained for the different scenarios. Risk values obtained are not precise predictions of future losses but rather a means to identify areas where damages are likely to be greater and require priority for mitigation actions.  相似文献   

14.
Landslide hazard, vulnerability, and risk-zoning maps are considered in the decision-making process that involves land use/land cover (LULC) planning in disaster-prone areas. The accuracy of these analyses is directly related to the quality of spatial data needed and methods employed to obtain such data. In this study, we produced a landslide inventory map that depicts 164 landslide locations using high-resolution airborne laser scanning data. The landslide inventory data were randomly divided into a training dataset: 70 % for training the models and 30 % for validation. In the initial step, a susceptibility map was developed using logistic regression approach in which weights were assigned to every conditioning factor. A high-resolution airborne laser scanning data (LiDAR) was used to derive the landslide conditioning factors for the spatial prediction of landslide hazard areas. The resultant susceptibility was validated using the area under the curve method. The validation result showed 86.22 and 84.87 % success and prediction rates, respectively. In the second stage, a landslide hazard map was produced using precipitation data for 15 years. The precipitation maps were subsequently prepared and show two main categories (two temporal probabilities) for the study area (the average for any day in a year and abnormal intensity recorded in any day for 15 years) and three return periods (15-, 10-, and 5-year periods). Hazard assessment was performed for the entire study area. In the third step, an element at risk map was prepared using LULC, which was considered in the vulnerability assessment. A vulnerability map was derived according to the following criteria: cost, time required for reconstruction, relative risk of landslide, risk to population, and general effect to certain damage. These criteria were applied only on the LULC of the study area because of lack of data on the population and building footprint and types. Finally, risk maps were produced using the derived vulnerability and hazard information. Thereafter, a risk analysis was conducted. The LULC map was cross-matched with the results of the hazard maps for the return period, and the losses were aggregated for the LULC. Then, the losses were calculated for the three return periods. The map of the risk areas may assist planners in overall landslide hazard management.  相似文献   

15.
Landslide hazard or susceptibility assessment is based on the selection of relevant factors which play a role on the slope instability, and it is assumed that landslides will occur at similar conditions to those in the past. The selected statistical method compares parametric maps with the landslide inventory map, and results are then extrapolated to the entire evaluated territory with a final product of landslide hazard or susceptibility map. Elements at risk are defined and analyzed in relation with landslide hazard, and their vulnerability is thus established. The landslide risk map presents risk scenarios and expected financial losses caused by landslides, and it utilizes prognoses and analyses arising from the landslide hazard map. However, especially the risk scenarios for future in a selected area have a significant importance, the literature generally consists of the landslide susceptibility assessment and papers which attempt to assess and construct the map of the landslide risk are not prevail. In the paper presented herein, landslide hazard and risk assessment using bivariate statistical analysis was applied in the landslide area between Hlohovec and Sered?? cities in the south-western Slovakia, and methodology for the risk assessment was explained in detail.  相似文献   

16.
Kurseong hill subdivision, being one of the three (Kurseong, Sadar and Kalingpong) subdivisions of the hilly portions of the Darjeeling district, West Bengal, India, is affected by severe landslide incidence in the rainy season every year. These landslides and related phenomena frequently create social and economic instability disrupting communication system, claiming property and even sometimes life. Curbing landslide threat, therefore, becomes very much essential over this area. Individual landslide treatments are seen to be taken up by the construction engineers and geo-technical experts almost every year from government level. But reoccurrence of landslides on the same spots or surrounding places clearly reveals that construction works and filling procedures (usually taken up) are not the adequate measures to heal up the problem unless the area is treated as zones of landslides than individual spots of landslide occurrences. Therefore, the assessment of spatial probability of landslide occurrence in various magnitudes in the form of landslide vulnerability zones becomes essential. This spatial probability should also be compared with temporal probability based on the data of landslide incidence of the area for justification of match or mismatch between the inference drawn from the diagnostic criteria based assessment of the possibility level of landslide occurrence and the reality of the landslide scenario in the light of historical perspective of the area. This comparison will finally help to achieve the predicted vulnerability zones of landslide with desirable accuracy to put forward for planning decision. Moreover, such predicted vulnerability zonation can be taken as a standard estimate to use in planning purpose for the areas where historical data of landslide incidences are inadequate or unavailable. With this view in mind, the present paper takes an attempt to verify and compare landslide vulnerability zones derived from Spatial Terrain Parameter Evaluation (STPE) and Anthropogenic Criteria Identification (ACI) methods with the landslide hazard zones prepared from historical data, i.e. landslide inventory of certain length of time. Careful observation reveals that different degrees of landslide vulnerability zones significantly correspond with the similar magnitudes of the landslide hazard zones determined by past occurrence data of landslides over this hill subdivision and therefore validate the predictability procedure of landslide vulnerability zonation. The accuracy performance of the landslide vulnerability zonation model has further been verified by the occurrence dataset of landslide events through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis where area under curve evaluation showed 81.77 % correctness.  相似文献   

17.
In Taiwan, the hillside is about 70 % of total area. These areas also have steep topography and geological vulnerability. When an event of torrential rain comes during a typhoon, the landslide disasters usually occur at these areas due to the long duration and high intensity of rainfall. Therefore, a design which considers the potential landslide has become an important issue in Taiwan. In this study, a temporal characteristic of landslide fragility curve (LFC) was developed, based on the geomorphological and vegetation factors using landslides at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed in Taiwan, during Typhoon Sinlaku (September 2008) and Typhoon Morakot (August 2009). This study addressed an effective landslide hazard assessment process, linking together the post-landslide damage and post-rainfall data for LFC model. The Kriging method was used to interpolate the rainfall indices (R 0, R, I) for numerical analysis. Remote sensing data from SPOT images were applied to analyze the landslide ratio and vegetation conditions. The 40-m digital elevation model was used for slope variation analysis in the watershed, and the maximum likelihood estimate was conducted to determine the mean and standard deviation parameters of the proposed empirical LFC model. This empirical model can express the probability of exceeding a damage state for a certain classification (or conditions) of landslides by considering a specific hazard index for a given event. Finally, the vulnerability functions can be used to assess the loss from landslides, and, in the future, to manage the risk of debris flow in the watershed.  相似文献   

18.

Landslides are the main secondary effects of earthquakes in mountainous areas. The spatial distribution of these landslides is controlled by the local seismic ground motion and the local slope stability. While gravitational instabilities in arid and semi-arid environments are understudied, we document the landslides triggered by the Sarpol Zahab earthquake (November 12, 2017, Mw7.3, Iran/Iraq border), the largest event ever recorded in the semi-arid Zagros Mountains. An original earthquake-induced landslide inventory was derived, encompassing landslides of various sizes and velocities (from rapid disrupted rockfalls to slow-moving coherent landslides). This inventory confirms the low level of triggered landslides in semi-arid environments. It also displays clear differences in the spatial and volumetric distributions of earthquake-induced landslides, having 386 rockfalls of limited size triggered around the epicenter, and 9 giant (areas of ca. 106 m2) active and ancient deep-seated landslides coseismically accelerated at locations up to 180 km from the epicenter. This unusual distant triggering is discussed and interpreted as an interaction between the earthquake source properties and the local geological conditions, emphasizing the key role of seismic ground motion variability at short spatial scales in triggering landslides. Finally, the study documents the kinematics of slow-moving ancient landslides accelerated by earthquakes, and opens up new perspectives for studying landslide triggering over short (~?1–10 years) and long-time (~?1000–10,000 years) periods.

  相似文献   

19.
滑坡危险性定量评估是滑坡风险评估中的关键和难点,也是当前国际风险管理研究中的热点问题.以滑坡密集分布的黑方台南塬为研究区,以32处典型滑坡为研究对象,依据多期三维数字高程模型(DEM),提出了一种基于强度的滑坡危险性定量评估技术方法.根据多期三维地形信息的解译及野外调查,编制多期滑坡分布图,计算滑坡活动的频率.利用GIS技术,利用滑坡体积与速度的乘积计算滑坡强度.将滑坡危险性定义为滑坡频率和滑坡强度的乘积,同时调查和分析了黑方台地区各类承灾体的类型、价值及其在相应滑坡强度下的易损性,在此基础上开展了单体滑坡风险评估和黑方台南塬滑坡风险区划.  相似文献   

20.
Recent investigations have sought to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of landslides in Teziutlán, Puebla, a municipality historically affected by landslides. The latest initiative, under the umbrella of the ICL-IPL Project “Landslide disaster risk communication in mountain areas,” was the publication of a book of Atlas type comprising a collection of 142 maps and their corresponding explanatory texts that included a context analysis of landslide disaster risk drivers at various scales, from regional to local. This paper aims to recognise and address the necessity to further enhance the guiding principle of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to focus on the understanding of disaster risk drivers at local level, for the determination of measures to reduce disaster risk. We present an initial contribution to promote landslide disaster risk awareness in the urban area of Teziutlán by providing to the community direct access to maps of landslide disaster risk at local scale; this is a first step towards the establishment of a robust strategy to communicate landslide risk in the long term. Effective implementation calls for decreasing vulnerability and exposure. Beyond contexts of vulnerability reflected by social, economic, cultural, political, and institutional conditions, it may be difficult to picture the spatial interactions of exposure of communities, assets, and the environment because the means of analysing spatial relationships between society and nature are not commonly available in mountain areas. Therefore, for people to better understand risk, maps of landslide susceptibility and risk exposure present a good way for the inhabitants to familiarise themselves with the spatial context of the dynamics in which they are immersed.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号