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1.
Adapting water resources management to global climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Philip Williams 《Climatic change》1989,15(1-2):83-93
This paper provides an overview of the impact of global climate change on water resources management. Changes in precipitation and temperature of the scale predicted by General Circulation Models for a doubled CO2 level will significantly affect annual runoff, runoff variability, and seasonal runoff. These in turn will affect water supply, flood protection, hydropower generation, and environmental resources. In addition, climate change will significantly affect the geomorphic response of the watershed, increasing soil erosion and altering the hydrologic response of the watershed. These geomorphic changes will in turn affect water supply, flood hazard, and riparian ecosystems.Possible water resources management responses are identified. This includes reallocation of water supply from less valuable irrigated agriculture to municipal uses; changes in agricultural methods; increasing incentives for integrated flood management; increasing incentives for watershed management; integration of ecosystem needs in water resources planning; and the need to redesign the operation of existing water projects. 相似文献
2.
根据内蒙古黄河流域内72个国家气象站观测的1961—2005年和区域气候模式CCLM模拟的1961—2100年的气温和降水数据,采用BP人工神经网络模型,预估分析3种RCP情景下头道拐水文站2011—2100年流量变化,评估未来气候变化对流域水资源的可能影响。结果表明:①2011—2100年内蒙古黄河流域气温升高,降水变化不明显,年平均流量呈减少趋势,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景分别减少3.6%、2.7%和23.4%。②未来春季流量以增加为主;夏季在不同情景的变化趋势不一致;秋季在21世纪50年代前以增加为主,之后以减少为主;冬季则以减少为主。③未来流域可利用水资源呈减少趋势,尤其夏季水资源的供需矛盾加剧,以及径流季节分配发生变化,可能产生更大的春季径流。 相似文献
3.
Dennis P. Lettenmaier Andrew W. Wood Richard N. Palmer Eric F. Wood Eugene Z. Stakhiv 《Climatic change》1999,43(3):537-579
The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO2 scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO2 scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons. 相似文献
4.
Richard T. Wetherald 《Climatic change》2010,102(3-4):651-670
This paper examines the subject of hydrologic variability and its changes in two separate integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA assuming a 1% per year increase to a doubling and quadrupling of CO2, respectively. Changes in time mean state and variability of precipitation, runoff and soil moisture are evaluated using monthly and seasonal mean data derived from these integrations. Various statistical tests are then performed on the resulting time mean and variability changes. The patterns of hydrologic change for these three quantities are similar to those obtained from previous studies. In northern middle to higher latitudes for the time means, the changes include increases in monthly mean precipitation, increases in monthly mean runoff during the fall, winter and spring seasons and decreases of monthly mean soil moisture during summer. Many of these changes are found to be statistically significant at the 5% significance level for both the time mean and variability especially for the results where CO2 is quadrupled such as monthly mean precipitation. Significant changes also include increases of runoff variability during spring, winter and spring and increases of soil moisture variability during the summer season. These results support statements made in previous IPCC reports that increasing greenhouse gases can lead to more severe and frequent floods and droughts depending upon season and latitude. This study also indicates that the approaches to equilibrium of these two integrations, and the resulting hydrologic changes, take place over time scales of hundreds of years in agreement with several previous investigations. 相似文献
5.
Records of hydrologic parameters, especially those parameters that are directly linked to air temperature, were analyzed to
find indicators of recent climate warming in Minnesota, USA. Minnesota is projected to be vulnerable to climate change because
of its location in the northern temperate zone of the globe. Ice-out and ice-in dates on lakes, spring (snowmelt) runoff timing,
spring discharge values in streams, and stream water temperatures recorded up to the year 2002 were selected for study. The
analysis was conducted by inspection of 10-year moving averages, linear regression on complete and on partial records, and
by ranking and sorting of events. Moving averages were used for illustrative purposes only. All statistics were computed on
annual data.
All parameters examined show trends, and sometimes quite variable trends, over different periods of the record. With the exception
of spring stream flow rates the trends of all parameters examined point toward a warming climate in Minnesota over the last
two or three decades. Although hidden among strong variability from year to year, ice-out dates on 73 lakes have been shifting
to an earlier date at a rate of −0.13 days/year from 1965 to 2002, while ice-in dates on 34 lakes have been delayed by 0.75
days/year from 1979 to 2002. From 1990 to 2002 the rates of change increased to −0.25 days/year for ice-out and 1.44 days/year
for ice-in. Trend analyses also show that spring runoff at 21 stream gaging sites examined occurs earlier. From 1964 to 2002
the first spring runoff (due to snowmelt) has occurred −0.30 days/year earlier and the first spring peak runoff −0.23 days/year
earlier. The stream water temperature records from 15 sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area shows warming by
0.11∘C/year, on the average, from 1977 to 2002. Urban development may have had a strong influence. The analysis of spring stream
flow rates was inconclusive, probably because runoff is linked as much to precipitation and land use as to air temperature.
Ranking and sorting of annual data shows that a disproportionately large number of early lake ice-out dates has occurred after
1985, but also between 1940 and 1950; similarly late lake ice-in has occurred more frequently since about 1990. Ranking and
sorting of first spring runoff dates also gave evidence of earlier occurrences, i.e. climate warming in late winter.
A relationship of changes in hydrologic parameters with trends in air temperature records was demonstrated. Ice-out dates
were shown to correlate most strongly with average March air temperatures shifting by −2.0 days for a 1°C increase in March air temperature. Spring runoff dates also show a relationship with March air temperatures; spring runoff
dates shift at a rate of −2.5 days/1°C minimum March air temperature change. Water temperatures at seven river sites in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area
show an average rise of 0.46°C in river temperature/1°C mean annual air temperature change, but this rate of change probably includes effects of urban development.
In conclusion, records of five hydrologic parameters that are closely linked to air temperature show a trend that suggests
recent climate warming in Minnesota, and especially from 1990 to 2002. The recent rates of change calculated from the records
are very noteworthy, but must not be used to project future parameter values, since trends cannot continue indefinitely, and
trend reversals can be seen in some of the long-term records. 相似文献
6.
为研究澜沧江源区水文气候变化特征,采用线性回归拟合分析方法、M-K非参数检验法对1960—2010年间澜沧江源区的水文气候变化趋势进行分析,计算了各季节气温变化对年气温变化的贡献量,并基于Pearson相关分析法和贡献率的计算讨论了降水量和气温对径流量变化的影响。结果表明:澜沧江源区年平均气温和各季节平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,其中,冬季的增温对年平均气温增加贡献最大(38%)。澜沧江流域源区年降水量无明显增减趋势,但春季降水量显著增加。澜沧江流域源区年径流量未呈现显著变化趋势,冬季和春季径流量呈现出显著的增加趋势。年际尺度上,径流量的主控因素是降水量,降水量对径流量年内变化的影响主要发生在降水相对丰沛的6—10月份;冬季和初春季节气温上升对径流量的改变存在一定的影响,且气温的贡献率要比降水的贡献率大,原因是气温升高加剧研究区内冰雪的消融,进而导致澜沧江源区的径流增加。 相似文献
7.
A monthly water balance (WB) model was developed for the Yukon River Basin (YRB). The WB model was calibrated using mean monthly values of precipitation and temperature derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set and by comparing estimated mean monthly runoff with runoff measured at Pilot Station, Alaska. The calibration procedure used the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search. Potential hydrologic effects of climate change were assessed for the YRB by imposing changes in precipitation and temperature derived from selected Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) climate simulations. Scenarios from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations were used to provide a range of potential changes. Results from the scenarios indicate an increase in annual runoff in the twenty-first century for the YRB with simulated increases in precipitation having the greatest effect on increases in runoff. Simulated increases in temperature were found to alter the timing of snow accumulation and melt. 相似文献
8.
9.
流域水文模型是区域水资源评价的重要工具,基于普林斯顿全球气象驱动数据集和澜沧江-湄公河流域（简称：澜湄流域）八个水文站实测资料,分析了澜湄流域不同区间的水文特性,采用RCCC-WBM模型（Water Balance Model developed by Research Center for Climate Change,RCCC-WBM）开展了区间径流及水量平衡模拟研究。结果表明：1）澜湄流域不同区间气候水文差异显著,上游气温低且年内变幅大,下游气温高年内变幅小;尽管不同区间降水、径流的年内分配特征总体一致,但径流的年内分布峰值大多滞后降水峰值一个时段。2）RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟出澜湄流域不同区间的径流过程,率定期和验证期的月径流模拟效率系数（Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency,NSE）均在60%以上,总量模拟误差（Relative Error,RE）也均控制在±10%以内,模型具有较好的区域适应性。3）模拟的土壤含水量都具有先衰减后增加再衰减的年内分配特征;不同季节径流和蒸发耗散的水源不同,降水是汛期水分耗散的主要来源,而土壤含水量是非汛期径流和蒸发消耗的主要水源。 相似文献
10.
Yan-Fang Sang Zhonggen Wang Changming Liu Jingjie Yu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(1-2):187-195
This study analyzed the inter- and inner-annual variations of discharge regimes in the upper and mid reaches of the Heihe River basin. These variations then correlated with temperature and precipitation variations in the area. The differences between the runoff regimes at the upper and mid reaches were compared, and the human impacts on discharge variations in the Heihe River were discussed. The results indicate that in the upper reaches, the long-term trends and periods of discharge and precipitation correlate well. In the mid reaches, the discharge and temperature trends correlate well, and the short discharge and precipitation periods correlate well. Precipitation increases would generate more runoff in both the upper and mid reaches, but the effects of temperature increases on discharge are different in the upper and mid reaches. Temperature increases would enhance the glacial ablation processes and increase runoff in the upper reaches. However, temperature increases would increase the evaporation and decrease runoff in the mid reaches. After the 1980s, higher temperature enhanced snow and glacial melt, and increasing precipitation increased the discharge in the upper reaches. Although increasing precipitation increased some discharge, great human activities caused a notable discharge decrease in the 1990s in the mid reaches, especially during the spring to autumn when large amounts of water resources were used for irrigation. In summary, both precipitation and temperature impact the availability of water resources in the study area, and active and effective adaptation strategies should be developed to improve the efficiency of water resource exploration and to prevent the desertification processes in the arid Heihe River basin. 相似文献
11.
水文模式DHSVM与区域气候模式RegCM2/China嵌套模拟试验 总被引：17，自引：4，他引：17
本研究在改进水文 -土壤 -植被模式DHSVM ,用气候观测资料驱动DHSVM进行模拟试验的基础上 ,建立了区域气候模式RegCM2 /China与水文模式DHSVM的嵌套系统 ,将区域气候模式对中国和东亚地区控制试验 (目前气候情景 )和敏感性试验 (未来 2×CO2 气候情景 )结果用双线性插值方法降尺度 (downscaling)到滦河、桑干河流域的 8个气象站点 ,然后再用数字高程模式DEM插值到DHSVM的细网格点 ,驱动水文模式进行嵌套模拟试验。试验结果表明 ,滦河、桑干河流域在未来大气中CO2 浓度加倍情况下 ,地面气温呈一致的增加趋势 ,年平均气温增加2 .8℃ ;两流域未来降水也呈增加趋势 ,滦河、桑干河流域年降水量分别增加 6mm和 4 6mm ;两流域未来蒸发量有所增加 ,年均蒸发量增加 2 9mm ;未来滦河流域年径流深减少 2 7mm ,流量减少 14 .72× 10 8m3 ,桑干河流域径流深增加 2 6mm ,流量增加 12 .2 2× 10 8m3 ,两流域合计 ,流量减少 2 .5× 10 8m3 ;未来滦河、桑干河流域径流深趋向一致 ,分别为 74和 71mm ,约为全国目前平均径流深 2 84mm的 1/ 4。可见 ,两流域未来总体上仍呈现暖干化趋势。本研究发展的嵌套模式系统具有一定的预测能力 ,而且通过参数移植 ,可应用于中国其他流域 相似文献
12.
应用开都河下游大山口水文站径流和博斯腾湖1956-2009年的逐月水位数据和流域内各气象站的气象数据,通过模糊聚类等统计方法,分析了博斯腾湖水位变化趋势及其可能影响因子.结果表明:博斯腾湖的水位年际变化受开都河流域径流的影响很大,当开都河流域径流量大时博湖水位较高,且开都河径流与其上、下游气温和降水关系密切.博斯腾湖水位逐年的月变化基本上可以分为5类,其中最主要的为第一类型和第二类型:第一类为递减型,特征为季节变化不明显,水位在春季较高,以后逐渐降低;第二类为递增型,特点是季节变化较第一大类明显,水位在夏末秋初的时候较高,整体呈现上升趋势.递增、递减型出现的主要原因是受上下游降水和大山口径流的影响,当上下游降水和径流偏多时水位月际变化出现递增型,反之易出现递减型. 相似文献
13.
Daily and sub-daily weather data are often required for hydrological and environmental modeling. Various weather generator programs have been used to generate synthetic climate data where observed climate data are limited. In this study, a weather data generator, ClimGen, was evaluated for generating information on daily precipitation, temperature, and wind speed at four tropical watersheds located in Hawai??i, USA. We also evaluated different daily to sub-daily weather data disaggregation methods for precipitation, air temperature, dew point temperature, and wind speed at M??kaha watershed. The hydrologic significance values of the different disaggregation methods were evaluated using Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. MuDRain and diurnal method performed well over uniform distribution in disaggregating daily precipitation. However, the diurnal method is more consistent if accurate estimates of hourly precipitation intensities are desired. All of the air temperature disaggregation methods performed reasonably well, but goodness-of-fit statistics were slightly better for sine curve model with 2?h lag. Cosine model performed better than random model in disaggregating daily wind speed. The largest differences in annual water balance were related to wind speed followed by precipitation and dew point temperature. Simulated hourly streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge were less sensitive to the method of disaggregating daily air temperature. ClimGen performed well in generating the minimum and maximum temperature and wind speed. However, for precipitation, it clearly underestimated the number of extreme rainfall events with an intensity of >100 mm/day in all four locations. ClimGen was unable to replicate the distribution of observed precipitation at three locations (Honolulu, Kahului, and Hilo). ClimGen was able to reproduce the distributions of observed minimum temperature at Kahului and wind speed at Kahului and Hilo. Although the weather data generation and disaggregation methods were concentrated in a few Hawaiian watersheds, the results presented can be used to similar mountainous location settings, as well as any specific locations aimed at furthering the site-specific performance evaluation of these tested models. 相似文献
14.
近50年黄河上游径流量与气候变化特征研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据1956-2010年唐乃亥水文站逐月径流量资料和1961-2009年黄河上游兴海、泽库、玛沁、达日、久治、玛多6个代表站的降水量、气温资料,分析了唐乃亥站径流量与黄河上游地区降水和气温的气候变化特征及其关系.结果表明:春、夏、秋、冬季的径流量分别占年径流量的14.9%、2.9%、34.7%、7.5%;唐乃亥站年和四... 相似文献
15.
Projections of a drier, warmer climate in the U.S. Southwest would complicate management of the Colorado River system—yet these projections, often based on coarse resolution global climate models, are quite uncertain. We present an approach to understanding future Colorado River discharge based on land surface characterizations that map the Colorado River basin’s hydrologic sensitivities (e.g., changes in streamflow magnitude) to annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes. The approach uses a process-based macroscale land surface model (LSM; in this case, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model, although methods are applicable to any LSM) to develop sensitivity maps (equivalent to a simple empirical model), and uses these maps to evaluate long-term annual streamflow responses to future precipitation and temperature change. We show that global climate model projections combined with estimates of hydrologic sensitivities, estimated for different seasons and at different change increments, can provide a basis for approximating cumulative distribution functions of streamflow changes similar to more common, computationally intensive full-simulation approaches that force the hydrologic model with downscaled future climate scenarios. For purposes of assessing risk, we argue that the sensitivity-based approach produces viable first-order estimates that can be easily applied to newly released climate information to assess underlying drivers of change and bound, at least approximately, the range of future streamflow uncertainties for water resource planners. 相似文献
16.
D. Yu. Vasil’ev N. K. Gavra E. S. Kochetkova Yu. I. Ferapontov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2013,38(5):351-358
Presented are the results of analyzing the correlation between the total winter and autumn precipitation and the parameters of spring water runoff in the Belaya River basin for the period of 1936–2000. Five regions are defined, and major factors influencing the runoff formation in each of them are listed. The correlation between the runoff characteristics and the total precipitation is estimated; it can be used for developing the methodological instructions for the runoff forecast in different areas of Bashkortostan. 相似文献
17.
Mariza Costa-Cabral Sujoy B. Roy Edwin P. Maurer William B. Mills Limin Chen 《Climatic change》2013,116(1):97-109
Precipitation from the Eastern Sierra Nevada watersheds of Owens Lake and Mono Lake is one of the main water sources for Los Angeles’ over 4 million people, and plays a major role in the ecology of Mono Lake and of these watersheds. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model at daily time scale, forced by climate projections from 16 global climate models under greenhouse gas emissions scenarios B1 and A2, to evaluate likely hydrologic responses in these watersheds for 1950–2099. Comparing climate in the latter half of the 20th Century to projections for 2070–2099, we find that all projections indicate continued temperature increases, by 2–5 °C, but differ on precipitation changes, ranging from ?24 % to +56 %. As a result, the fraction of precipitation falling as rain is projected to increase, from a historical 0.19 to a range of 0.26–0.52 (depending on the GCM and emission scenario), leading to earlier timing of the annual hydrograph’s center, by a range of 9–37 days. Snowpack accumulation depends on temperature and even more strongly on precipitation due to the high elevation of these watersheds (reaching 4,000 m), and projected changes for April 1 snow water equivalent range from ?67 % to +9 %. We characterize the watershed’s hydrologic response using variables integrated in space over the entire simulated area and aggregated in time over 30-year periods. We show that from the complex dynamics acting at fine time scales (seasonal and sub-seasonal) simple dynamics emerge at this multi-year time scale. Of particular interest are the dynamic effects of temperature. Warming anticipates hydrograph timing, by raising the fraction of precipitation falling as rain, reducing the volume of snowmelt, and initiating snowmelt earlier. This timing shift results in the depletion of soil moisture in summer, when potential evapotranspiration is highest. Summer evapotranspiration losses are limited by soil moisture availability, and as a result the watershed’s water balance at the annual and longer scales is insensitive to warming. Mean annual runoff changes at base-of-mountain stations are thus strongly determined by precipitation changes. 相似文献
18.
California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco Estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Previous work has shown that a projected warming would result in a reduction of snowpack storage leading to higher winter and lower spring-summer streamflows and increased spring-summer salinities in the estuary. The present work shows that these hydrologic changes exhibit a strong dependence on elevation, with the greatest loss of snowpack volume in the 1300–2700 m elevation range. Exploiting hydrologic and estuarine modeling capabilities to trace water as it moves through the system reveals that the shift of water in mid-elevations of the Sacramento river basin from snowmelt to rainfall runoff is the dominant cause of projected changes in estuarine inflows and salinity. Additionally, although spring-summer losses of estuarine inflows are balanced by winter gains, the losses have a stronger influence on salinity since longer spring-summer residence times allow the inflow changes to accumulate in the estuary. The changes in inflows sourced in the Sacramento River basin in approximately the 1300–2200 m elevation range thereby lead to a net increase in estuarine salinity under the projected warming. Such changes would impact ecosystems throughout the watershed and threaten to contaminate much of California's freshwater supply. 相似文献
19.
Marketa M. Elsner Lan Cuo Nathalie Voisin Jeffrey S. Deems Alan F. Hamlet Julie A. Vano Kristian E. B. Mickelson Se-Yeun Lee Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):225-260
Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydrology is particularly sensitive to changes in climate because snowmelt dominates seasonal runoff, and temperature changes impact the rain/snow balance. Based on results from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), we updated previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology. PNW 21st century hydrology was simulated using 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over Washington and the greater Columbia River watershed, with additional focus on the Yakima River watershed and the Puget Sound which are particularly sensitive to climate change. We evaluated projected changes in snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow for A1B and B1 emissions scenarios for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s. April 1 SWE is projected to decrease by approximately 38–46% by the 2040s (compared with the mean over water years 1917–2006), based on composite scenarios of B1 and A1B, respectively, which represent average effects of all climate models. In three relatively warm transient watersheds west of the Cascade crest, April 1 SWE is projected to almost completely disappear by the 2080s. By the 2080s, seasonal streamflow timing will shift significantly in both snowmelt dominant and rain–snow mixed watersheds. Annual runoff across the State is projected to increase by 2–3% by the 2040s; these changes are mainly driven by projected increases in winter precipitation. 相似文献
20.
本研究在对SWAT模型进行参数化的基础上,采用淮河干流吴家渡和鲁台子水文控制站1971-1990年和1991-2014年的月径流观测数据对SWAT模型进行了率定和验证。模拟效果评估结果显示：不论是率定期还是验证期,Nash-Sutcliffe系数Ens和确定系数R2均>0.8,相对误差Re<1%,模型能够较好地再现月尺度的降雨-径流过程。淮河中上游年径流深线性变化趋势不明显,但子流域空间差异显著,径流深上游及南部呈线性减小趋势,其他子流域呈增大趋势。从年水量平衡要素来看,蒸散量和渗漏量对水量平衡贡献最大。主成分分析表明,平均气温、降水量及蒸散量是淮河中上游水文要素变化的关键因子。剔除人为因素的影响,1971-2014年淮河中上游地区水资源量呈减少趋势,这可能是年平均气温升高、年降 水量略有减少以及年蒸散量减少综合作用的结果。本文研究成果可为淮河中上游水资源管理和相关政策的制定提供技术支撑。 相似文献