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1.
Seismic hazard in mega city Kolkata, India   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
The damages caused by recent earthquakes in India have been a wake up call for people to take proper mitigation measures, especially the major cities that lie in the high seismic hazard zones. Kolkata City, with thick sediment deposit (∼12 km), one of the earliest cities of India, is an area of great concern as it lies over the Bengal Basin and lies at the boundary of the seismic zones III and IV of the zonation map of India. Kolkata has been affected by the 1897 Shillong earthquake, the 1906 Calcutta earthquake, and the 1964 Calcutta earthquake. An analysis on the maximum magnitude and b-value for Kolkata City region is carried out after the preparation of earthquake catalog from various sources. Based on the tectonic set-up and seismicity of the region, five seismic zones are delineated, which can pose a threat to Kolkata in the event of an earthquake. They are broadly classified as Zone 1: Arakan-Yoma Zone (AYZ), Zone 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ), Zone 3: Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ), Zone 4: Bay of Bengal Zone (BBZ), and Zone 5: Shield Zone (SZ). The maximum magnitude (m max) for Zones 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 are 8.30 ± 0.51, 9.09 ± 0.58, 9.20 ± 0.51, 6.62 ± 0.43 and 6.61 ± 0.43, respectively. A probability of 10% exceedance value in 50 years is used for each zone. The probabilities of occurrences of earthquakes of different magnitudes for return periods of 50 and 100 years are computed for the five seismic zones. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) obtained for Kolkata City varies from 0.34 to 0.10 g.  相似文献   

2.
The Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone is seismically one of the most active and complex subduction zones that produced the 26 December 2004 mega thrust earthquake (Mw 9.3) and large number of aftershocks. About 8,000 earthquakes, including more than 3,000 aftershocks (M ≥ 4.5) of the 2004 earthquake, recorded during the period 1964–2007, are relocated by the EHB method. We have analysed this large data set to map fractal correlation dimension (Dc) and frequency-magnitude relation (b-value) characteristics of the seismogenic structures of this ~3,000-km-long mega thrust subduction zone in south-east Asia. The maps revealed the seismic characteristics of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java trenches, West Andaman fault (WAF), Andaman Sea Ridge (ASR), Sumatra and Java fault systems. Prominent N–S to NW–SE to E–W trending fractal dimension contours all along the subduction zone with Dc between 0.6 and 1.4 indicate that the epicentres mostly follow linear features of the major seismogenic structures. Within these major contours, several pockets of close contours with Dc ~ 0.2 to 0.6 are identified as zones of epicentre clusters and are inferred to the fault intersections as well as asperity zones along the fault systems in the fore arc. A spatial variation in the b-value (1.2–1.5) is also observed along the subduction zone with several pockets of lower b-values (1.2–1.3). The smaller b-value zones are corroborated with lower Dc (0.5–0.9), implying a positive correlation. These zones are identified to be the zones of more stress or asperity where rupture nucleation of intermediate to strong magnitude earthquakes occurred.  相似文献   

3.
This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M w ) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.  相似文献   

4.
The role of fluid injection on the occurrence and migration path for the aftershocks of 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) and January 2005 Andaman earthquake swarm within the aftershock sequence is investigated here from the viewpoint of pore fluid diffusion process. The Sumatra earthquake created a regionally extensive crustal rupture plane exceeding 1,200 km length below the Andaman Sea. The rt plots (Shapiro et al. 1997) are constructed for these aftershocks in order to examine the role of poroelastic effects as rupturing progressed with time. Their main results are as follows: the rt plot corresponding to first 3 h of aftershock activity (when only 44 events of mb ≥ 4.5 originated) reveals that 95% of the data points occurred below the modelled parabola with relatively high D value of 20 m2/s, whereas a significantly low D value of 3.5 m2/s characterises the aftershock activity for the first 24 h (when 420 events of mb ≥ 4.0 occurred). Here, the Coulomb stress was transferred from the main shock with a rapid imposition of normal stress, thus inducing the pore-pressure change that started diminishing almost immediately by fluid diffusion, at a rate, defined by the diminishing D value. The modelling results for fault seismicity at far off distances from the main epicentre are interpreted here as potential indicators for large-scale sub-seabed rupturing—consequent to stress changes induced by bending of the Indian Ocean plate. Bathymetric slopes under the Andaman subduction zone are particularly amenable to sub-marine slides where crustal E–W hinge faults inferred seismically cut across the N–S trending regional thrust and strike-slip faults. Seabed rupturing appears to allow deep-slab hydration in these areas, producing pressure gradients along the normal faults. These features are important since they can herald marine geohazards in the Andaman region.  相似文献   

5.
Spatial and temporal analysis of global seismological data 1964–2005 reveals a distinct teleseismic earthquake activity producing a columnar-like formation in the continental wedge between the Krakatau volcano at the surface and the subducting slab of the Indo-Australian plate. These earthquakes occur continuously in time, are in the body-wave (m b) magnitude range 4.5–5.3 and in the depth range 1–100 km. The Krakatau earthquake cluster is vertical and elongated in the azimuth N30°E, suggesting existence of a deep-rooted fault zone cutting the Sunda Strait in the SSW-NNE direction. Possible continuation of the fault zone in the SW direction was activated by an intensive 2002/2003 aftershock sequence, elongated in the azimuth of N55°E. Beneath the Krakatau earthquake cluster, an aseismic gap exists in the Wadati-Benioff zone of the subducting plate at the depths 100–120 km. We interpret this aseismic gap as a consequence of partial melting inhibiting stress concentration necessary to generate stronger earthquakes, whereas the numerous earthquakes observed in the overlying lithospheric wedge beneath the volcano probably reflect magma ascent in the recent plumbing system of the Krakatau volcano. Focal depth of the deepest events (~100 km) of the Krakatau cluster constrains the location of the primary magma generation to greater depths. The ascending magmatic fluids stress fault segments within the Sunda Strait fault zone and change their friction parameters inducing the observed tectonic earthquakes beneath Krakatau.  相似文献   

6.
In the present study, the cumulative seismic energy released by earthquakes (M w ≥ 5) for a period of 1897 to 2009 is analyzed for northeast (NE) India. For this purpose, a homogenized earthquake catalogue in moment magnitude (M w ) has been prepared. Based on the geology, tectonics and seismicity, the study region is divided into three source zones namely, 1: Arakan-Yoma Zone (AYZ), 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ) and 3: Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ). The maximum magnitude (M max ) for each source zone is estimated using Tsuboi’s energy blocked model. As per the energy blocked model, the supply of energy for potential earthquakes in an area is remarkably uniform with respect to time and the difference between the supply energy and cumulative energy released for a span of time, is a good indicator of energy blocked and can be utilized for the estimation of maximum magnitude (M max ) earthquakes. The proposed process provides a more consistent model of gradual accumulation of strain and non-uniform release through large earthquakes can be applied in the assessment of seismic hazard. Energy blocked for source zone 1, zone 2 and zone 3 regions is 1.35×1017 Joules, 4.25×1017 Joules and 7.25×1017 Joules respectively and will act as a supply for potential earthquakes in due course of time. The estimated M max for each source zone AYZ, HZ, and SPZ are 8.2, 8.6, and 8.7 respectively. M max obtained from this model is well comparable with the results of previous workers from NE region.  相似文献   

7.
Probabilistic seismic hazard of Pakistan, Azad-Jammu and Kashmir   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
The seismic hazard study for Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir has been conducted by using probabilistic approach in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in m/s2 and also seismic hazard response spectra for different cities. A new version of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53, 2005) ground acceleration model is used, and parameterization is based on most recent updated earthquake catalogs that consisted of 14,000 events. The threshold magnitude was fixed at M w 4.8, but seismic zones like northern Pakistan–Tajikistan, Hindukush and northern Afghanistan–Tajikistan border had M w 5.2. The average normalized ‘a’ and ‘b’ values for all zones are 6.15 and 0.95, respectively. Seismicity of study area was modeled, and ground motion was computed for eight frequencies (0.025, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 s) for different annual exceedance rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, 0.002 and 0.001 (return periods 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1,000 years) for stiff rocks at the gridding of 0.1° × 0.1°. Seismic hazard maps based on computed PGA for 0.02, 0.01 and 0.002 annual exceedance are prepared. These maps indicate the earthquake hazard of Pakistan and surrounding areas in the form of acceleration contour lines, which are in agreement with geological and seismotectonic characteristics of the study area. The maximum seismic hazard values are found at Muzaffarabad, Gilgit and Quetta areas.  相似文献   

8.
Statistics of the recurrence times of great earthquakes at the Pacific subduction margins are made. The mean return period of great earthquakes is different from zone to zone, ranging from 27 to 117 years. The standard deviation of the return period proves to be very small, several years say, in some cases. The probabilities of a great earthquake recurring in each zone are estimated on the basis of Weibull distribution analysis.The mean return periods thus estimated are combined with the relative plate velocities at respective zones as obtained in the plate tectonics in order to estimate the ultimate displacement to rupture at the interface of the continental plate and the downgoing oceanic plate. It is presumed that great earthquakes at subduction zones occur as a result of a rebound of the continental plate at the time of rupture. The ultimate displacement thus estimated ranges from 2 to 8 m, and seems somewhat larger than that estimated on the basis of seismic observations, although the value of ultimate displacement seems to harmonize roughly with estimates based on geodetic observations on land. However, the ultimate displacement at the Aleutian—Alaska zone as estimated here seems much smaller than that estimated from actual observations.The ultimate strains, which are deduced from the displacements obtained on the assumption that the logarithmic extent of the deformed area is proportional to earthquake magnitude, are then calculated, and compared with those estimated for large inland earthquakes as revealed by repetition of geodetic surveys. The mean ultimate strain is estimated as 4.3 · 10−5 for subduction-zone earthquakes while that for inland earthquakes has been estimated as 4.7 · 10−5. As the agreement between both the ultimate strains is fairly good, it is tentatively concluded that the strength of the plate interface under the sea bottom is more or less the same as that in the crust on land.  相似文献   

9.
To explore the local tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone we (1) evaluate geologically reasonable variability of the earthquake rupture process, (2) specify 25 deterministic earthquake sources, and (3) use resulting vertical coseismic deformations for simulation of tsunami inundation at Cannon Beach, Oregon. Maximum runup was 9–30 m (NAVD88) from earthquakes with slip of ~8–38 m and M w ~8.3–9.4. Minimum subduction zone slip consistent with three tsunami deposits was 14–15 m. By assigning variable weights to the source scenarios using a logic tree, we derived percentile inundation lines that express the confidence level (percentage) that a Cascadia tsunami will not exceed the line. Ninety-nine percent of Cascadia tsunami variation is covered by runup ≤30 m and 90% ≤16 m with a “preferred” (highest weight) value of ~10 m. A hypothetical maximum-considered distant tsunami had runup of ~11 m, while the historical maximum was ~6.5 m.  相似文献   

10.
Earthquake hazard zonation of Sikkim Himalaya using a GIS platform   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
An earthquake hazard zonation map of Sikkim Himalaya is prepared using eight thematic layers namely Geology (GE), Soil Site Class (SO), Slope (SL), Landslide (LS), Rock Outcrop (RO), Frequency–Wavenumber (F–K) simulated Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Predominant Frequency (PF), and Site Response (SR) at predominant frequencies using Geographic Information System (GIS). This necessitates a large scale seismicity analysis for seismic source zone classification and estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude or maximum credible earthquake to be used as a scenario earthquake for a deterministic or quasi-probabilistic seismic scenario generation. The International Seismological Center (ISC) and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogues have been used in the present analysis. Combining b-value, fractal correlation dimension (Dc) of the epicenters and the underlying tectonic framework, four seismic source zones are classified in the northeast Indian region. Maximum Earthquake of M W 8.3 is estimated for the Eastern Himalayan Zone (EHZ) and is used to generate the seismic scenario of the region. The Geohazard map is obtained through the integration of the geological and geomorphological themes namely GE, SO, SL, LS, and RO following a pair-wise comparison in an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Detail analysis of SR at all the recording stations by receiver function technique is performed using 80 significant events recorded by the Sikkim Strong Motion Array (SSMA). The ground motion synthesis is performed using F–K integration and the corresponding PGA has been estimated using random vibration theory (RVT). Testing for earthquakes of magnitude greater than M W 5, a few cases presented here, establishes the efficacy and robustness of the F–K simulation algorithm. The geohazard coverage is overlaid and sequentially integrated with PGA, PF, and SR vector layers, in order to evolve the ultimate earthquake hazard microzonation coverage of the territory. Earthquake Hazard Index (EHI) quantitatively classifies the terrain into six hazard levels, while five classes could be identified following the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) PGA nomenclature for the seismic zonation of India. EHI is found to vary between 0.15 to 0.83 quantitatively classifying the terrain into six hazard levels as “Low” corresponding to BIS Zone II, “Moderate” corresponding to BIS Zone III, “Moderately High” belonging to BIS Zone IV, “High” corresponding to BIS Zone V(A), “Very High” and “Severe” with new BIS zones to Zone V(B) and V(C) respectively.  相似文献   

11.
An Oligocene paleosurface (regolith) lies on top of the high-pressure metamorphic rocks of the Sesia–Lanzo Zone near Biella, NW Italy. Only the saprock, the lowermost part in a regolith profile, is preserved. No evidence for any paleosoil can be observed. Field observations indicate that the regolith developed through in situ mechanical fracturing of the rocks of the Sesia–Lanzo Zone in a continental environment. Density estimations of the regolith and the underlying rocks of the Sesia–Lanzo Zone confirm the field observations and imply that a relatively small amount of alteration minerals was formed. The main detected alteration phases are chlorite, various carbonates, quartz, clay minerals, Fe-oxides, and Fe-hydroxides. Chlorite differing in chemistry and crystallographic ordering demonstrates different stages of alteration. Oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of carbonates suggests temperatures higher than surface conditions. Illite and chlorite thermometry indicates temperatures related to the anchizone (~250–300°C). These data are considered as a robust indication of the re-burial of the regolith together with its substrate and its volcanic cover. The burial is closely related to the tilting of the preserved stratigraphic sequence formed by the rocks of the Sesia–Lanzo Zone, the regolith, and the rocks of the Biella Volcanic Suite (Lanza, in Schweiz Miner Petrogr MItt 57: 281–290, 1977; Lanza, in Geologishe Rundschau 68: 83–92, 1979). Furthermore, the burial is consistent with this sequence of subaerial rocks being very close to the intrusion depth of the Valle del Cervo Pluton at the time of its emplacement (4–7 km; Zanoni et al., in Rend Online SGI Note Brevi 1: 199–202, 2008; Zanoni et al., in Int Geol Rev 52: 1244–1267, 2010 and references therein).  相似文献   

12.
Indian Ocean subduction zone is one of the most active plate margins of the globe as evident from its vast record of great magnitude earthquake and tsunami events. We use Bouguer admittance (Morlet isostatic response function) in Sumatra-Java subduction zones comprising both the subduction and over-riding plates to determine the lithospheric mechanical strength variations. We determine effective elastic thickness (T e ) for five oceanic windows (size 990 × 990 km2) by analyzing the admittance using Bouguer gravity and bathymetry data. The results show bimodal T e values < 20 km for Sumatra and 20−40 km for Java. The lower bimodal values obtained for Sumatra appears to correlate well with the zones of historical seismicity. This is in sharp contrast with Java subduction zone, which shows higher T e values (20–40 km) and apparently associated with low magnitude earthquakes. We suggest a strong and wide interseismic coupling for Sumatra between the subducting and over-riding plates, and deeper mantle contributing to low strength, shallow focus — high magnitude seismicity and vice versa for Java, leading to their seismogenic zonation.  相似文献   

13.
The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M W ≥ 3.  相似文献   

14.
Quantitative thermobarometry of inclusions in zoned garnet from a Franciscan eclogite block record a counter-clockwise PT path from blueschist to eclogite and back. Garnet retains prograde zoning from inclusion-rich Alm52Grs30Pyp6Sps12 cores to inclusion-poor Alm62Grs25Pyp12Sps1 mantles, with overgrowths of highly variable composition. Barometry using the Waters–Martin version of the garnet–phengite–omphacite thermobarometer yields conditions of 7–15 kbar, 400–500°C (garnet cores), 18–22 kbar, ∼550°C (mantles), and 10–14 kbar, 350–450°C (overgrowths), in agreement with clinozoisite–sphene–rutile–garnet–quartz barometry. These pressures are ∼10–15 kbar less than those obtained using more recent, fully thermodynamic calibrations of the phengite–omphacite–garnet thermobarometer. Low early temperatures suggest that the block was subducted in a thermally mature subduction zone and not at the inception of subduction when prograde temperature is expected to be higher. Franciscan high-grade blocks likely represent crust subducted throughout the history of this convergent margin, rather than only at the inception of the subduction zone.  相似文献   

15.
Cumulative stress energy in an earthquake preparation zone under operating tectonic force manifests various observable signs of the impending earthquake, i.e., earthquake precursors. This energy transformation may result in enhanced transient thermal infrared (TIR) emission, which can be detected through satellites equipped with thermal sensors like AVHRR (NOAA), MODIS (Terra/Aqua). This paper presents observations made using NOAA-AVHRR data–derived land surface temperature (LST) and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) values in case of two moderate earthquakes (22 July 2007, Yamnotri earthquake, India and 27 October 2004, Vrancea earthquake, Romania) using anomalous TIR signals as reflected in LST rise and high OLR values can be seen conspicuously and following similar growth pattern spatially and temporally. In both the cases, data analysis revealed a transient thermal infrared rise in LST ranging 5–10°C around epicentral areas. The thermal anomalies started developing about 7–8 days prior to the main event depending upon the magnitude and focal depth and disappeared after the main shock. Similarly, the OLR values ~30–45 W/m2 higher than the normal were observed 7–8 days prior to the main event. The rise in LST can be attributed to enhanced greenhouse gas emission from the squeezed rock pore spaces and/or to the activation of p-holes in stressed rock volume and their further recombination at rock-air interface. OLR is temperature and humidity dependent, and any change in these variables may be responsible for anomalous OLR values.  相似文献   

16.
We have experimentally determined the tracer diffusion coefficients (D*) of 44Ca and 26Mg in a natural diopside (~Di96) as function of crystallographic direction and temperature in the range of 950–1,150 °C at 1 bar and f(O2) corresponding to those of the WI buffer. The experimental data parallel to the a*, b, and c crystallographic directions show significant diffusion anisotropy in the a–c and b–c planes, with the fastest diffusion being parallel to the c axis. With the exception of logD*(26Mg) parallel to the a* axis, the experimental data conform to the empirical diffusion “compensation relation”, converging to logD ~ −19.3 m2/s and T ~ 1,155 °C. Our data do not show any change of diffusion mechanism within the temperature range of the experiments. Assuming that D* varies roughly linearly as a function of angle with respect to the c axis in the a–c plane, at least within a limited domain of ~20° from the c-axis, our data do not suggest any significant difference between D*(//c) and D*(⊥(001)), the latter being the diffusion data required to model compositional zoning in the (001) augite exsolution lamellae in natural clinopyroxenes. Since the thermodynamic mixing property of Ca and Mg is highly nonideal, calculation of chemical diffusion coefficient of Ca and Mg must take into account the effect of thermodynamic factor (TF) on diffusion coefficient. We calculate the dependence of the TF and the chemical interdiffusion coefficient, D(Ca–Mg), on composition in the diopside–clinoenstatite mixture, using the available data on mixing property in this binary system. Our D*(Ca) values parallel to the c axis are about 1–1.5 log units larger than those Dimanov et al. (1996). Incorporating the effect of TF, the D(Ca–Mg) values calculated from our data at 1,100–1,200 °C is ~0.6–0.7 log unit greater than the experimental quasibinary D((Ca–Mg + Fe)) data of Fujino et al. (1990) at 1 bar, and ~0.6 log unit smaller than that of Brady and McCallister (1983) at 25 kb, 1,150 °C, if our data are normalized to 25 kb using activation volume (~4 and ~6 cm3/mol for Mg and Ca diffusion, respectively) calculated from theoretical considerations.  相似文献   

17.
Eclogite and garnet glaucophanite lenses from the Punta Balandra unit of the Samaná basement complex (northern Hispaniola) preserve information of the early metamorphic and tectonic history of subduction in the Caribbean island-arc and its collision with the North America plate. For this reason, PT paths were reconstructed from the interpretation of meso- and microfabrics, mineral assemblages and chemistry, with the aid of equilibrium phase diagrams calculated for specific bulk compositions in the CKNFMASH system and isopleths for selected solution end-members. The obtained results suggest that the subduction-related prograde path evolved from garnet-free and garnet-bearing lawsonite-blueschist facies, to phengite eclogite facies conditions at P=22–24 kbar and T=610–625°C, with a probable intermediate stage of low-P lawsonite eclogite facies. The subsequent retrograde PT path entered the epidote-blueschist (garnet-free) facies and ended within the greenschist facies field, similar to the prograde evolution at low-P. Eclogites and garnet glaucophanites formed in a subduction zone in which oceanic lithosphere was subducted WSW/W beneath the Caribbean plate.  相似文献   

18.
Saraf  Arun K.  Rawat  Vineeta  Das  Josodhir  Zia  Mohammed  Sharma  Kanika 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(2):861-872
Prior to the occurrence of an earthquake, the region undergoes intensive physiochemical changes. Such changes trigger degassing charge generation leading to positive change in the thermal regime and consequently creation of an earthquake preparation zone. These changes in thermal regime can be detected by the thermal sensors onboard various polar orbiting satellites. Recent researches have demonstrated that thermal infrared sensors onboard satellites (e.g., NOAA-AVHRR and Terra/Aqua-MODIS) can detect temporal transient thermal infrared anomalies prior to an earthquake. The paper presents satellite-based thermal observations associated with Yamnotri (July 22, 2007, India), Ravar (October 14, 2004, Iran) and Dalbandin (January 19, 2011, Pakistan) earthquakes. In the case of Yamnotri earthquake, the region attained around 5–8°C higher than the normal temperature on July 21, 2007 in the area, just 1 day before the earthquake. Whereas, in the case of Ravar earthquake, the region has shown 5–7°C higher temperature on October 06, 2004 about 6 days before the occurrence of the main earthquake event. Dalbandin earthquake showed a maxima on January 17, 2011, just 2 days before the main shock with the raised temperature of around 8–10°C. Another common observation in all these earthquakes is the disappearance of short-term transient thermal anomaly just before the main shock.  相似文献   

19.
The Burmese Arc seismic activity is not uniform for its ∼ 1100 km length; only the Northern Burmese Arc (NBA) is intensely active. Six large earthquakes in the magnitude range 6.1–7.4 have originated from the NBA Benioff zone between 1954–2011, within an area of 200 × 300 km2 where the Indian plate subducts eastward to depths beyond 200 km below the Burma plate. An analysis on seismogenesis of this interplate region suggests that while the subducting lithosphere is characterized by profuse seismicity, seismicity in the overriding plate is rather few. Large earthquakes occurring in the overriding plate are associated with the backarc Shan-Sagaing Fault (SSF) further east. The forecasting performance of the Benioff zone earthquakes in NBA as forerunner is analysed here by: (i) spatial earthquake clustering, (ii) seismic cycles and their temporal quiescence and (iii) the characteristic temporal b-value changes. Three such clusters (C1–C3) are identified from NBA Benioff Zones I & II that are capable of generating earthquakes in the magnitude ranges of 7.38 to 7.93. Seismic cycles evidenced for the Zone I displayed distinct quiescence (Q1, Q2 and Q3) prior to the 6th August 1988 (M 6.6) earthquake. Similar cycles were used to forecast an earthquake (Dasgupta et al. 2010) to come from the Zone I (cluster C1); which, actually struck on 4 February 2011 (M 6.3). The preparatory activity for an event has already been set in the Zone II and we speculate its occurrence as a large event (M > 6.0) possibly within the year 2012, somewhere close to cluster C3. Temporal analysis of b-value indicates a rise before an ensuing large earthquake.  相似文献   

20.
The Algerian margin is a seismically active region, where during the last century, several large magnitude earthquakes took place. This study combines geotechnical and sedimentological data with numerical modelling to quantitatively assess the present-day slope stability of the Algerian margin. Geotechnical laboratory tests, such as cyclic triaxial tests, oedometric tests and vane shear tests were carried out on sediment cores collected on the study area. The liquefaction potential of a sediment column located about 30 km from the Boumerdès earthquake epicentre of 21st May 2003 was evaluated theoretically for an earthquake of M w  = 6.8. We show that thin sand and silt beds such as those described on recovered sediment cores are the main cause of sediment deformation and liquefaction during earthquakes. Numerical calculations showed that the slope failure may occur during an earthquake characterised by a PGA in excess of 0.1g, and also that, under a PGA of 0.2g liquefaction could be triggered in shallow silty–sandy deposits. Moreover, comparison of the predicted slope failure with failure geometries inferred from seafloor morphology showed that earthquakes and subsequent mass movements could explain the present-day morphology of the study area.  相似文献   

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