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1.
Tornado shelters and the manufactured home parks market 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Manufactured or mobile homes represent a fast growing portion of the housing market but are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes.
In the US over 40% of tornado fatalities occur in mobile homes even though they comprise about 8% of US housing units. We
examine the market for tornado shelters in manufactured home parks in Oklahoma. Almost 60% of parks in the state have shelters,
with 90% of the shelters underground. Parks with shelters are not concentrated in urban areas but spread across the state,
with parks with shelters in 32 counties. We find that rents for lots in parks with shelters are 5–8% higher, which generates
sufficient revenue to approximately pay for shelters, but the point estimate is statistically significant in only one specification.
相似文献
| Daniel Sutter (Corresponding author)Email: |
2.
Kevin D. Ash 《GeoJournal》2017,82(3):533-552
Occupants of mobile or manufactured homes in the United States of America (USA) are highly exposed and susceptible to injury or death from tornado hazards. This problem is most pronounced in the southern and eastern USA, where tornadoes are frequent and mobile homes comprise upwards of 15 % of the housing stock. Recognizing this vulnerability, emergency management entities and the USA National Weather Service often recommend that mobile home residents evacuate to a nearby sturdy building or a specially-built tornado shelter when tornadoes threaten their communities. Previous research suggests, however, that only 30 % of residents follow this recommendation. In this research I aim to provide insight as to why many mobile home residents seldom undertake the suggested course of action for tornadoes. Using excerpts from twenty semi-structured interviews conducted during 2013 in South Carolina, I show that some individuals understand physical characteristics of tornadoes very differently than experts do. In addition, mobile home residents may also hold views that differ from experts about the ability of their homes to withstand tornadic winds and debris. Even if mobile home occupants pay close attention to thunderstorm hazards and might be willing to evacuate, they may prioritize protective actions for lightning or flash flooding over those recommended for tornadoes. Finally, the interviews reveal that there is much confusion over where to go, when to leave, and which route to take to arrive safely at a sheltering place for tornado hazards. I discuss some of the potential ramifications of the findings for theory and practice and suggest how future research might build on this work. 相似文献
3.
Tornado shelter-seeking behavior and tornado shelter options among mobile home residents in the United States 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Residents of 401 mobile homes in Georgia, Mississippi, Illinois, and Oklahoma were surveyed after they heard a tornado warning.
Most residents (69%) did not seek shelter during the warning. Half of those who sought shelter went to the frame house of
a friend, neighbor, or relative, and 25% of those sought shelter in a basement or underground shelter. Some of the places
where residents sought shelter were of dubious quality, such as their own mobile home, another mobile home, or in an out-building.
Twenty-one percent of mobile home residents believed that they had a basement or underground shelter available as shelter
during a tornado warning, and about half of those said they would drive to the shelter. Residents said they would drive if
the shelter was more than 200 m away. Fifteen percent actually had a basement or underground shelter suitable as shelter within
200 m of their mobile home, but only 43% of the residents would use those shelters. The most common reason cited for not using
the shelters was that they did not know the people who lived there. Likewise, a frame house or other sturdy building was within
200 m of 58% of the mobile homes, but only 35% of the residents stated they would use those houses for shelter. Thirty-one
percent of mobile home residents had a ditch that was at least 0.5 m deep within 200 m of the mobile home. However, 44% of
these ditches had utility lines overhead, 23% had water in them, and 20% had trees overhead. The limited tornado shelter options
among mobile home residents in the United States needs to be incorporated into safety instructions so that residents without
nearby shelter are allowed to drive to safer shelter. 相似文献
4.
Bimal Kanti Paul 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(2):289-304
Cyclone Sidr, a Category IV storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on November 15, 2007 killing 3,406 people.
Despite a similar magnitude, Sidr claimed far fewer lives than Cyclone Gorky, also a Category IV storm, which struck Bangladesh
in 1991 causing an estimated 140,000 fatalities. The relatively low number of deaths experienced with Sidr is widely considered
the result of Bangladesh government’s efforts to provide timely cyclone forecasting and early warnings, and successful evacuation
of coastal residents from the projected path of Cyclone Sidr. Using information collected from both primary and secondary
sources, this study identified several other reasons for the unexpectedly lower mortality associated with Cyclone Sidr relative
to Cyclone Gorky. Fewer casualties may be attributed to a number of physical characteristics of Cyclone Sidr, such as duration
of the storm and storm surge, landfall time and site, varied coastal ecology, and coastal embankment. This article recommends
improvements to the cyclone warning systems, establishment of more public cyclone shelters, and implementation of an education
campaign in coastal areas to increase the utilization of public shelters for future cyclone events. 相似文献
5.
Samanthi W. Durage Lina Kattan S. C. Wirasinghe Janaka Y. Ruwanpura 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):1495-1517
With increasing concerns over the possibility of tornadoes in highly populated areas in Canada, emergency managers are looking into ways to mitigate the impacts of tornadoes. Given that tornadoes can cause enormous destruction, early warnings and proper evacuation actions are critically important in helping save lives. In this paper, a survey was conducted to analyse the evacuation behaviour of households and drivers during a hypothetical tornado warning situation in the city of Calgary, Alberta. Nearly 500 Calgarians took part in the online survey and provided information on how they would respond to tornado warnings after receiving them. This paper presents the results of the survey. Using probit models, the factors influencing these evacuation decisions are identified and discussed in detail. The results of the household evacuation model show the importance of improving awareness about the safest locations during a tornado. It further highlights the need for targeting the population under the age of 30, who are more likely to take unsafe evacuation actions. The model for evacuation of drivers shows that several factors, such as knowing the difference between a watch and a warning, awareness of safe cover, receipt of warnings through natural environmental cues and the level of education, trigger evacuation actions in avoiding a tornado threat. 相似文献
6.
A May 2007 tornado destroyed 95% of aging, declining Greensburg, Kansas. The city took the opportunity to build back “stronger,
better, and greener,” enforcing upgraded codes, requiring city-owned buildings to meet LEED Platinum level standards, and
recommending energy-efficiency housing in a new Sustainable Comprehensive Plan. Using information collected from surveys of
Greensburg tornado survivors, interviews, and publications, we examined the housing-related recovery, including the emergency
provision of temporary shelter and rebuilding permanently. Although temporary shelter kept residents nearby for rebuilding,
given the gap between insurance policy limits on the aging housing stock and rebuilding costs, housing affordability is a
critical issue in Greensburg’s recovery. Local, state, and federal support have made construction of municipal buildings at
LEED Platinum level and some affordable and green housing projects possible. However, far greater public and private sector
funding for affordable workforce housing, in conjunction with broader economic and job development, is needed. 相似文献
7.
This research provides an overview and discussion of language used in tornado safety recommendations along with development of a rubric for scaled tornado safety recommendations. Residents living in affected areas and those temporarily housed at relief stations were surveyed to collect information on their experiences during a 2-week period following the April 27, 2011 Tuscaloosa, Alabama EF4 tornado. Respondents were asked about their refuge plans during the storm and about any future changes to those plans. A specific focus of this research evaluated the adequacy of each respondent’s plan. Each refuge plan was compared using a tornado refuge rubric developed through the use of enhanced Fujita (EF) scale degree of damage ratings for available damage indicators. There was a significant difference in the counts of refuge adequacy for Tuscaloosa residents when holding the locations during the April 27 tornado constant and comparing adequacy ratings for weak (EF0–EF1), strong (EF2–EF3), and violent (EF4–EF5) tornadoes. There was also a significant difference when comparing the future tornado refuge plans of those same participants to the adequacy ratings for weak, strong, and violent tornadoes. This research introduces renewed discussion on proper refuge and shelter alternatives for days when violent tornadoes are forecasted. 相似文献
8.
Anytime that tornadoes interface with people, the results are often grim. The varied characteristics of tornado windfields
and the diverse techniques of home construction complicate the expected outcomes of such interactions. Since it is now known
that tornadoes do not produce unfathomable winds, engineers have developed techniques for increasing a home’s tornado resistance;
thus, increasing the odds of survival of the inhabitants. Even considering these advances, tornadoes still wreak havoc and
cause much causality every year. The story of tornado survival is partly chance, partly knowledge, and partly science. This
essay utilizes analogies between a popular motion picture and the state of the art of tornado-resistant construction to illustrate
the good, the bad, and the ugly facts of tornado survival. First examined are the positive aspects of tornado probability.
The odds of experiencing a tornado are so low that massive expenditures are not necessarily cost effective. Next, various
techniques of tornado-resistant construction practices are included for new and existing structures. Introduction of equations
for predicting debris penetration are compared with various building techniques to describe the viability of tornado protection.
The negative aspect of tornado/structure interfaces describes the fact that despite contemporary construction and prevention
exercise, the unpredictability of the tornado windfield causes tremendous damage and loss of life. The final section examines
the interface between tornadoes and mobile homes. This proves very ugly in every aspect of the word. Statistics and equations
confirm the inherent dangers of such an interaction. Also, described is a novel approach to the design of a portable tornado
shelter. 相似文献
9.
Tornadoes are one of the most powerful and destructive weather events. The frequency of tornado occurrence is highest in North America, especially in the US Canada is second only to the US, and approximately, 80 occurrences are reported annually. Communities are impacted only when and if a tornado touches down on the ground. Early recognition of tornadoes and proper communication of warnings in the pre-touchdown phase helps the public to be ready and respond appropriately and effectively. Given that tornadoes are hard to predict and the warnings give only a very brief window of opportunity to prepare for evacuation to a secure underground or other location, each activity in the detection and warning phases is critically important. This study is focused on conducting a detailed comparison of the tornado detection and warning systems in the US and Canada. The sequences of activities and their interrelationships in the tornado detection and warning systems of each country are identified and developed as networks. A detection and warning network for Canada is developed, using Calgary as a case study, whereas a separate network is developed for the US, showing how local residents receive tornado warnings initiated by a local weather forecast office. Moreover, collaborating partners are identified, and their involvement at each level of the information flow is recognized. The two networks are compared and critically analyzed, focusing on the key issues, such as prediction/detection capabilities, warning decision-making, warning dissemination methods, and the spotters’ role. This qualitative comparison supports the recognition of key areas that need to be considered in improving the tornado detection and warning system in Canada. 相似文献
10.
Extreme meteorological conditions favor the development of severe storms and tornadoes that may have largely impacts on the population despite its relatively short life. Tornadic severe storms have been documented around the World. In Mexico (MEX), the study of the occurrence of tornadoes and severe storms is relatively new. In this research, we have selected an event of severe tornadic storm in Ciudad Acuña, Mexico. The storm was driven by a frontal system moving southward from USA converging with a warmer moist air flux from the Gulf of Mexico. The tornado strikes on the Northeast of Mexico, in Coahuila State, on May 25, 2015. Imagery of infrared channel from GOES 13 satellite and the presence of a hook echo in radar data of May 25, 2015, indicate a supercell structure. The maximum values of radial velocity were about ?20 and 15 m s?1. In this study, the WRF model was used in order to simulate the mesoscale meteorological conditions of the tornado. Model simulations capture atmospheric features observed in Doppler radar. The simulated storm-relative helicity values were between 400 and 500 m2 s?2. The simulated convective available potential energy values were of 3000 J kg?1. These values were higher than values for convective storms, located over the region of Ciudad Acuña in Mexico and Del Rio in USA. The supercell was a result of high humidity and temperature gradients, conditioned by frontal activity and moisture flux intensifications from the Gulf of Mexico.
相似文献11.
Kathleen Sherman-Morris 《Natural Hazards》2010,52(3):623-638
An online survey was completed by 2,921 students and employees at a large university following a tornado near-miss that required
taking shelter. During this event, the university’s emergency alert messaging system was tested. The first alert message was
received by over 66% of the sample within 15 min, and cell phones were the most common means of receiving this message—especially
for students. Employees relied more on computer instant messaging than did students. Interpersonal communication was also
important. The majority could correctly define tornado watch, tornado warning and shelter in place. Age and frequency of use
of weather information were of mixed significance as predictors. Finally, over three quarters of respondents reported taking
shelter during the event. Being female and being an employee made a respondent more likely to take shelter. 相似文献
12.
Motor vehicles historically have been dangerous locations to shelter in during tornado events. Throughout the twentieth century, motor vehicle design has become safer while tornado forecasting has become better understood. Despite such advances, tornado fatalities in motor vehicles still occur today, and some events periodically result in high numbers of deaths (e.g., ten motor vehicle occupants were killed by a single tornado in Garland, Texas, in 2015). We seek to examine all US tornado-induced motor vehicle fatalities documented between 1991 and 2015. Our findings indicate that motor vehicle fatalities have not significantly changed during this study period. We attribute annual fatality totals to persons lacking awareness of impending dangers coupled with numbers of significant tornado events for a given year. We find most fatalities result when vehicles are lofted or passengers are ejected, and this most typically occurs at the EF3–EF5 intensity thresholds. Fatalities that occur at weaker tornado winds (EF0–EF2) are most often attributed to collapsing debris (mostly trees) on vehicles. Spatially, motor vehicle fatalities are greatest in the Deep South and southern Great Plains regions where overall tornado and nighttime tornado frequencies are greatest. Some of the largest motor vehicle fatality events have resulted from tornadoes not being distinctly visible to motorists; such events have been characterized by tornadoes occurring at night or by tornadoes not appearing as “classic funnels.” 相似文献
13.
This study examines the effect of severe wind events on the mean and variance of housing price indices of six metropolitan
statistical areas (MSA) that are vulnerable to hurricanes and/or tornadoes. The research focuses on three areas that experienced
significant tornado activity (Fort Worth-Arlington, Nashville, and Oklahoma City) and three hurricane-prone areas (Corpus
Christi, Miami, and Wilmington, NC). An econometric time series model that captures the housing market responses to severe
windstorms is utilized. The model estimates changes in the local housing price index (HPI) as a function of several control
variables as well as dichotomous variables that correspond to the tornadoes and hurricanes. As expected, the statistical findings
indicate an immediate but short-lived decline in housing prices following a tornado or hurricane. Somewhat surprising is the
result that the impact on the housing market is remarkably consistent whether the wind event was a hurricane or a tornado.
Hurricanes and tornadoes are vastly different in terms of the point probabilities of a hit, the scope of the affected area
and the lead time that supports last minute preparation to mitigate damage. It appears that the market response to destruction
of real property does not distinguish between the types of wind event that produced the damage to the region. Results suggest
that windstorms result in an immediate one-half to two percent reduction in total MSA housing value. This corresponds to a
range of $34 million to $580 million in lost housing value. Estimates indicate some differences in how long market values
continue to decline in the periods following the wind event; however, most of the decline occurs within four quarters after
the windstorm. These differences can be attributed to the particular time series characteristics of the specific housing markets
and their respective housing price indices. The market serves the purpose of integrating and normalizing the losses. In so
doing the market provides a metric— a method for calibrating and comparing structural damage caused by different phenomenon.
相似文献
| Yongsheng WangEmail: |
14.
This article examines the spatial dependence among housing losses due to tornadoes using data from the May 1999 Oklahoma City
tornado. In order to examine the existence of spatial dependence and its impacts on the damage analysis, we compare an estimation
based on a traditional ordinary least square model with the general spatial model. The results show that housing damage in
this disaster area is highly correlated. Monetary losses not only depend on the tornado that struck residences, but are related
to the damage magnitudes of neighboring houses. Average losses as well as the loss ratio increase with the Fujita Scale damage
rating. We conclude that the general spatial model provides unbiased estimates compared to the ordinary least square model.
In order to construct appropriate home insurance policies for tornado disasters or to improve the damage resistance capabilities
of houses, it is necessary for insurance underwriters and builders to consider spatial correlation of tornado damage.
相似文献
| Yongsheng Wang (Corresponding author)Email: |
15.
Krocak Makenzie J. Ernst Sean Allan Jinan N. Wehde Wesley Ripberger Joseph T. Silva Carol L. Jenkins-Smith Hank C. 《Natural Hazards》2020,102(3):1351-1368
When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service.
相似文献16.
National Weather Service issues deterministic warnings in a tornado event. An alternative system is being researched at National Severe Storms Laboratory to issue Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI). This study investigated how providing the uncertainty information about the tornado occurrence through PHI changes people’s protective actions. In an experiment, visual displays of the probabilistic information and deterministic warnings were presented to fifty participants to report their expected protective actions in different scenarios. It was found that the percentage of people who expected to immediately take shelter right after receiving the weather information increased exponentially as their proximity to the threat decreased. When there was more chance that the information about occurrence of a particular tornado was false rather than true, in scenarios that the likelihood of the threat occurrence was less than 50%, providing it through PHI lowered the percentage of people who immediately took shelter. The ordinal logistic regression models showed that the probability of taking protective actions significantly changes by providing the uncertainty information when people have less than 20 min lead time before getting impacted by the threat. When the lead time is less than 10 min, the probability of immediately taking shelter increases to 94 from 71%, and when the lead time is more than 10 but less than 20 min, that probability increases from 53 to 70%, if they are provided with the probabilistic information. Presenting the likelihood of any tornado formation in the area did not have significant effect on the people’s protective actions. 相似文献
17.
Sergey A. Arsen’yev 《地学前缘(英文版)》2011,2(2):215-221
Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity.Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds.A theory of the squall storms is proposed.The squall storm is modeled by running perturbation of... 相似文献
18.
Bangladesh is highly susceptible to tropical cyclones. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of climatological studies on the tropical
cyclones of Bangladesh. The Global Tropical Cyclone Climatic Atlas (GTCCA) lists historical storm track information for all
the seven tropical cyclone ocean basins including the North Indian Ocean. Using GIS, tropical cyclones that made landfall
in Bangladesh during 1877–2003 are identified and examined from the climatological perspective. For the convenience of study,
the coast of Bangladesh is divided into five segments and comparisons are made among the coastal segments in terms of cyclone
landfall and vulnerability. There is a large variability in the year-to-year occurrence of landfalling tropical cyclones in
Bangladesh. Most of the tropical cyclones (70%) hit in the months of May–June and October–November generally show the well-known
pattern of pre- and post-monsoon cyclone seasons in that region. 相似文献
19.
M. Shamsudduha L. J. Marzen A. Uddin M.-K. Lee J. A. Saunders 《Environmental Geology》2009,57(7):1521-1535
The present study has examined the relationship of groundwater arsenic (As) levels in alluvial aquifers with topographic elevation,
slope, and groundwater level on a large basinal-scale using high-resolution (90 m × 90 m) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
(SRTM) digital elevation model and water-table data in Bangladesh. Results show that high As (>50 μg/l) tubewells are located
in low-lying areas, where mean surface elevation is approximately 10 m. Similarly, high As concentrations are found within
extremely low slopes (<0.7°) in the country. Groundwater elevation (weekly measured by Bangladesh Water Development Board)
was mapped using water-table data from 950 shallow (depth <100 m) piezometers distributed over the entire country. The minimum,
maximum and mean groundwater elevation maps for 2003 were generated using Universal Kriging interpolation method. High As
tubewells are located mainly in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, Sylhet Trough, and recent floodplains, where groundwater
elevation in shallow aquifers is low with a mean value of 4.5 m above the Public Works Datum (PWD) level. Extremely low groundwater
gradients (0.01–0.001 m/km) within the GBM delta complex hinder groundwater flow and cause slow flushing of aquifers. Low
elevation and gentle slope favor accumulation of finer sediments, As-carrying iron-oxyhydroxide minerals, and abundant organic
matter within floodplains and alluvial deposits. At low horizontal hydraulic gradients and under reducing conditions, As is
released in groundwater by microbial activity, causing widespread contamination in the low-lying deltaic and floodplain areas,
where As is being recycled with time due to complex biogeochemical processes. 相似文献
20.
Thomas W. Schmidlin 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(1):13-25
There were 407 deaths from wind-related tree failures in the United States, 1995–2007. The most common cause of the deadly
fallen tree was a thunderstorm (41%), followed by nonconvective high winds (35%), tropical cyclones (14%), tornadoes (7%),
and snow and ice (3%). Most (62%) of the deaths were males while the median age was 44 years. The most common location of
the fatality was in a vehicle struck by the tree or a vehicle that crashed into a downed tree on the road (44%), followed
by persons outdoors (38%), in mobile homes (9%), and in frame houses (9%). Persons killed by wind-related tree failures during
tropical cyclones and tornadoes were more commonly at home (40%) when struck than those killed at home by thunderstorm and
nonconvective high winds (13%). Seasonality of the deaths varied by weather type with deaths in thunderstorms clustered during
May–August, nonconvective high winds October–April, tropical cyclones August–October, tornadoes in April and November, and
snow and ice December–April. Regional patterns result from frequency of the wind events, population density, and tree cover.
Suggestions are made for hazard reductions. 相似文献