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1.
基于TOPSIS评价法的城市应急避难所选址适宜性评价研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
由于城市中人口高度聚集,一旦发生灾害需疏散受灾居民到应急避难所中,因此应急避难所选址的合理性与适宜性就成为研究的重点。本文从经济性、效率性、公平性、安全性、可达性及环境因素等6个方面出发,选取12个应急避难所选址适宜性评价因子,并构建评价指标体系;利用TOPSIS评价方法构建适宜性评价模型,对研究区42处备选应急避难所的适宜性进行评价,结果表明:优秀级别8个、良好级别10个、中等级别23个、差等级别1个。研究结果可为应急管理部门在选择应急避难所建设位置时提供决策依据。 相似文献
2.
应急避难场所在城市应急管理体系中占有重要地位，对已建成的应急避难场所选址进行评价，可为应急避难场所个体改进、布局优化和新建选址提供依据。本文在文献研究与天津市城市特点分析的基础上，从有效性、安全性、可达性3个维度构建包含8个评价因子的应急避难场所选址适宜性评价指标体系，应用层次分析法（AHP）确定指标权重。应用GIS空间分析技术建立应急避难场所空间点位分析模型和覆盖范围模型，对天津市27个应急避难场所进行适宜性评价，并对中心城区14个应急避难场所进行满足性评价。结果表明，天津市应急避难场所具有良好的基础，但总体适宜性水平有待进一步提高，尤其是安全性亟需加强；天津市中心城区人口密集，但应急避难场所数量少，服务区域有限，存在较大范围的覆盖盲区，其中和平区人均有效避难面积仅0.2m2，远小于人体最低占用面积0.6m2，达不到人均有效避难要求。 相似文献
3.
地震灾害应对实践表明,社区作为社会治理的基本单元,在抢救生命、安置群众生活等方面发挥着重要作用。应急演练是有效提升民众防灾减灾意识和社区应对灾害能力的重要途径。近年来,社区开展了不同程度的地震应急演练,但在专业性和实效性方面仍存在很大提升空间。本文基于互联网+应急演练理念,提出基于互联网云服务的分布式、多社区、不限人数、同步或异步开展的应急桌面演练新模式,并在青海省海西蒙古族藏族自治州进行了试点应用。实践表明,互联网+社区地震应急桌面演练融合了传统桌面演练与实战演练的优势,可针对社区管理层开展地震灾害全过程桌面推演,能有效促进社区管理层应急组织协调能力的提升。 相似文献
4.
应急科普主要是对自然灾害、事故灾难等突发公共事件预防与处置的知识和能力进行普及,分为日常应急科普和战时应急科普。近年来,我国应急科普研究与实践受到较多关注,专家学者们从应急管理角度开展应急科普体系、体制机制等研究,从传播效果角度开展应急科普内容、渠道等研究。国家对应急管理和科普的高度重视,决定了应急科普研究将持续受到关注。今后将主要聚焦应急科普体系现代化建设、应急科普宣教等主题展开理论研究和实践研究。 相似文献
5.
破坏性地震发生后,相关部门根据地震应急预案启动地震应急响应,由于难以在第一时间得到准确和全面的灾情信息,因此支撑地震应急响应级别的判定因素有限。本文通过专家调查法,梳理出影响地震应急响应级别判定的关键因子,并对其赋予一定的权值,得到地震应急响应级别的阀值。当地震发生后,采用专家打分的形式计算出1个地震应急响应级别的判定值,通过判定值和阀值区间的关系,判定地震应急响应级别。最后,抽取了2011年以来云南境内发生的10次破坏性地震作为检验样本,结果证明该方法对应率较高,具有一定的适用性。 相似文献
6.
The frequent occurrence of sudden water pollution accidents brings enormous risks to water environment safety. Therefore, there is great need for the modeling and development of early warning systems and rapid response procedures for current water pollution situation in China. This paper proposes an emergency response system based on the integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and a hydraulic/water-quality model. Using the spatial analysis and three-dimensional visualization capabilities of GIS technology, we calculated pollutant diffusion measures, and visualized and analyzed the simulation results, in order to provide the services of early warning and emergency response for sudden water pollution accidents in the Xiangjia Dam area on the Yangtze River. The results show that the proposed system offers reliable technological support for emergency response to sudden water pollution events, and it shows good potential for wide applications in various aspects of water resources protection. 相似文献
7.
应急避难场所建设适宜与否,能否在灾时和灾后及时发挥应急避难功能,将直接决定居民的生命安全和财产损失情况。基于抗震防灾规划标准,本文以石家庄为例,从有效性、可达性、安全性三个层面构建了石家庄市应急避难场所适宜性评价指标体系。以GIS软件为数据处理平台,运用熵值权重法结合灰色关联分析的评价模型,对石家庄市应急避难场所进行适宜性评价。结果表明:石家庄市应急避难场所中有3处达到适宜等级,2处达到一般适宜等级,4处是不适宜等级。最后依据评价结果提出建设性建议。结果可检验石家庄已建成应急避难场所的布局合理性,为石家庄市新增避难场所的规划建设提供建议。 相似文献
8.
“情景-应对”型理论体系基于事件静、动态情景分析生成应急决策方案,已成为重大突发事件应急决策的基本范式。近年来,“情景-应对”研究理论的迅速发展极大地拓宽了其应用范围,逐渐被引入地震应急中,在一定程度上能够弥补传统“预测-应对”模式的不足,为震后高效行动及充分应对提供有效支撑。本文从情景识别、情景推演及应对处置方案生成等方面详细介绍了“情景-应对”理论体系发展中涉及的关键技术,阐述了其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用。通过对已有研究的回顾,分析讨论了该领域的最新进展及需进一步解决的问题。 相似文献
9.
A new methodology for water resources multicriteria decision making under uncertainty 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A multiciteria decision making problem in water resource is addressed through the generation of fuzzy Pareto optimal set. Methodology is using positive and negative ideal solutions (Lai, Y.-J., Liu, T.-Y., Hwang, C.L. (1994). TOPSIS for MODM. European Journal of Operational Research 76, 486-500) and a set of weights assigned to the objective functions in fuzzy triangular form. Solution of the problem is obtained by transforming each objective function into a set of three objective functions. A planning problem of multicriteria waste water treatment from the literature is used as an illustrative example to demonstrate the utility of the proposed methodology. The obtained fuzzy Pareto solution set has been compared with the deterministic solution set. It is shown that the proposed approach can: (a) capture the uncertainty associated with the assignment of weights; and (b) provide the decision makers with a wider range of solutions to select from. 相似文献
10.
An integrated fuzzy simulation-assessment method (FSAM) was developed for assessing environmental risks from petroleum hydrocarbon contamination in ground water. In the FSAM, techniques of fuzzy simulation and fuzzy risk assessment were coupled into a general framework to reflect a variety of system uncertainties. A petroleum-contaminated site located in western Canada was selected as a study case for demonstrating applicability of the proposed method. The risk assessment results demonstrated that system uncertainties would significantly impact expressions of risk-level outputs. A relatively deterministic expression of the risks would have clearer representations of the study problem but may miss valuable uncertain information; conversely, an assessment under vaguer system conditions would help reveal potential consequences of adverse effects but would suffer from a higher degree of fuzziness in presenting the modeling outputs. Based on the risk assessment results, a decision analysis procedure was used to calculate a general risk index (GRI) to help identify proper responsive actions. The proposed method was useful for evaluating risks within a system containing multiple factors with complicated uncertainties and interactions and providing support for identifying proper site management strategies. 相似文献
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M. F. Cao G. H. Huang Y. Sun Y. Xu Y. Yao 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(8):1163-1174
This study develops a dual inexact fuzzy chance-constrained programming (DIFCCP) method for planning municipal solid waste
(MSW) management systems. The concept of random boundary interval (RBI) is introduced to address the high uncertain parameters
in the studied system. Fuzzy flexible programming and chance-constrained programming are also introduced to take into account
the uncertainties of RBIs and various uncertainties in MSW management system. Compared with the existing methods, the developed
method could deal with the uncertainty without simplification and thus is more robust. Moreover, the potential system-failure
risks in MSW management system due to the existing uncertainties could be quantified by means of violation levels and satisfaction
levels in DIFCCP. The developed method then is applied to a MSW management system. The obtained solutions could be used for
generating efficient management schemes. The values of violation and satisfaction levels could help decision makers understand
the tradeoffs between system cost and system-failure risk, and identify desired strategy according to the practical economic
and environmental situation. 相似文献
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14.
应急管理部多层级视频会议系统跨网段转发技术 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
介绍应急管理部视频会议系统接入地震系统的基本情况,结合地震应急视频会议系统应用现状,分析多层级跨网视频会议系统的架构特点,着重分析跨网段"背靠背"转发优化技术方案在视频会议系统融合中的实现与应用,以期为类似的应用场景提供参考。 相似文献
15.
Jian Hua Li Zheng Ping Zhang Rui Huan Jing Chong Fu Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):485-492
In this paper, we introduce a value chain approach, on the view of the value chain analytic in business management, to be
the framework of a crisis response system serving for crisis management strategy in identifying risk sources, responding to
unexpected events, and recovering from a shock. This system is not only a computer system but also a system of governmental
emergency response mechanism and it is tremendous and complex. The system integrates and coordinates the correlative resources
of emergency response units of the city. We consider the efficiency of the system. In addition, the run cost of the system
also is taken into account. Based on this framework, the Qingdao’s practical situation is analyzed. As a result, a design
proposal of the Qingdao’s crisis response system is put forward. 相似文献
16.
Stochastic-fuzzy multi criteria decision making for robust water resources management 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Mahdi Zarghami Ferenc Szidarovszky 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):329-339
All realistic Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems in water resources management face various kinds of uncertainty.
In this study the evaluations of the alternatives with respect to the criteria will be assumed to be stochastic. Fuzzy linguistic
quantifiers will be used to obtain the uncertain optimism degree of the Decision Maker (DM). A new approach for stochastic-fuzzy
modeling of MCDM problems will be then introduced by merging the stochastic and fuzzy approaches into the Ordered Weighted
Averaging (OWA) operator. The results of the new approach, entitled SFOWA, give the expected value and the variance of the
combined goodness measure for each alternative, which are essential for robust decision making. In order to combine these
two characteristics, a composite goodness measure will be defined. By using this measure the model will give more sensitive
decisions to the stakeholders whose optimism degrees are different than that of the decision maker. The methodology will be
illustrated by using a water resources management problem in the Central Tisza River in Hungary. Finally, SFOWA will be compared
to other methods known from the literature to show its suitability for MCDM problems under uncertainty. 相似文献
17.
An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for assessing health-impact risk from air pollution 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
Heng L. Li Guo H. Huang Yun Zou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(6):789-803
High concentrations of air pollutants in the ambient environment can result in breathing problems with human communities.
Effective assessment of health-impact risk from air pollution is important for supporting decisions of the related detection,
prevention, and correction efforts. However, the quality of information available for environmental/health risk assessment
is often not satisfactory enough to be presented as deterministic numbers. Stochastic method is one of the methods for tackling
those uncertainties, by which uncertain information can be presented as probability distributions. However, if the uncertainties
can not be presented as probabilities, they can then be handled through fuzzy membership functions. In this study, an integrated
fuzzy-stochastic modeling (IFSM) approach is developed for assessing air pollution impacts towards asthma susceptibility.
This development is based on Monte Carlo simulation for the fate of SO2 in the ambient environment, examination of SO2 concentrations based on the simulation results, quantification of evaluation criteria using fuzzy membership functions, and
risk assessment based on the combined fuzzy-stochastic information. The IFSM entails (a) simulation for the fate of pollutants
in ambient environment, with the consideration of source/medium uncertainties, (b) formulation of fuzzy air quality management
criteria under uncertain human-exposure pathways, exposure dynamics, and SPG-response variations, and (c) integrated risk
assessment under complexities of the combined fuzzy/stochastic inputs of contamination level and health effect (i.e., asthma
susceptibility). The developed IFSM is applied to a study of regional air quality management. Reasonable results have been
generated, which are useful for evaluating health risks from air pollution. They also provide support for regional environmental
management and urban planning. 相似文献
18.
Two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming: application to water resources management under dual uncertainties 总被引：7，自引：7，他引：0
P. Guo G. H. Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):349-359
In this study, a two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming (TFCCP) approach is developed for water resources management
under dual uncertainties. The concept of distribution with fuzzy probability (DFP) is presented as an extended form for expressing
uncertainties. It is expressed as dual uncertainties with both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. As an improvement upon
the conventional inexact linear programming for handling uncertainties in the objective function and constraints, TFCCP has
advantages in uncertainty reflection and policy analysis, especially when the input parameters are provided as fuzzy sets,
probability distributions and DFPs. TFCCP integrates the two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) and fuzzy chance-constrained
programming within a general optimization framework. TFCCP incorporates the pre-regulated water resources management policies
directly into its optimization process to analyze various policy scenarios; each scenario has different economic penalty when
the promised amounts are not delivered. TFCCP is applied to a water resources management system with three users. Solutions
from TFCCP provide desired water allocation patterns, which maximize both the system’s benefits and feasibility. The results
indicate that reasonable solutions were generated for objective function values and decision variables, thus a number of decision
alternatives can be generated under different levels of stream flows, α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices. 相似文献
19.
青岛市地震应急指挥决策支持软件的设计与开发 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于空间决策支持技术设计与开发了城市地震应急指挥决策支持软件,在软件的总体设计、功能模块、数据库建设、接口设计与模块集成等方面进行了研究与开发,并在青岛市地震应急指挥系统中得到实际应用和检验。实践表明,该软件能实时收集地震现场灾害信息,给出地震灾害现状图,并且实时跟踪灾情发展及变化,智能制定各种地震应急指挥指令,可视化绘出应急指挥决策图,从而有效提高地震应急指挥的效率和响应速度,为地震现场应急指挥工作提供了更实用、可推广的技术平台,这对全国大中城市地震应急指挥技术系统的建设具有实际意义。 相似文献
20.
Seismic intensity measure (IM) selection is associated with consideration of multiple criteria, and there are uncertainties within the selection process. In this paper, a novel multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach by incorporating stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) with technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is proposed to solve the stochastic decision making problem of IM selection. TOPSIS provides an alternative rank function, and the SMAA is used to address the uncertainties within the IM selection. The performance criteria (e.g., efficiency, proficiency, practicality, sufficiency, and correlation) are evaluated for the investigated structural components, and the decision matrix is formulated based on the criteria of each IM alternative. Furthermore, the importance of the component to system reliability is quantified in a probabilistic manner using nonlinear time history analysis and serves as the weighting factors in MCDM stage. The holistic acceptability indices indicating the overall acceptability levels of IM alternatives are computed by the proposed approach. Additionally, the effects of different IMs (e.g., average spectral acceleration, peak ground velocity, and spectral acceleration) on probabilistic seismic loss and resilience are investigated to further support the IM selection. The proposed approach is illustrated on a highway bridge, and the results are presented. 相似文献