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1.
Xiaobei Liang Demian Chen Da Ruan Bingyong Tang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):415-423
The financial supply chain is increasingly recognized as an area offering significant potential for generating bottom-line
improvements and creating competitive advantage. Insurers’ appraisal is one of the basic decisions for a company, and the
choosing course has always many criterions. Considering the stability of the financial supply chain, the coordination evaluation
and fuzzy multi-objective evaluation model of insurers’ risk management are firstly studied in this paper by using large system
theory and methods. The corresponding coordination evaluation index model is then established to evaluate, forecast and control
the actuality and the future of risk coordination management, and to improve the durative development for a combination pension
model. The evaluation standards of numerous insurers are established to constitute a set of vectors. By presenting a dimensional
point to each insurer, the optimal or the worst insurer is decided. Finally, the distances of each insurer to the optimal
or the worst insurer on the basis of the Euclidean distance are counted, and the insurers’ ordering according to the value
of distances is sorted out. The financial supply chain and large system theory and methods are combined to contribute new
evaluation models that revise the deficiency of intrinsic model and improve the financial stability. 相似文献
2.
Decisions under uncertainty: a computational framework for quantification of policies addressing infectious disease epidemics 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Armin R. Mikler Sangeeta Venkatachalam Suhasini Ramisetty-Mikler 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):533-543
Emerging infectious diseases continue to place a strain on the welfare of the population by decreasing the population’s general
health and increasing the burden on public health infrastructure. This paper addresses these issues through the development
of a computational framework for modeling and simulating infectious disease outbreaks in a specific geographic region facilitating
the quantification of public health policy decisions. Effectively modeling and simulating past epidemics to project current
or future disease outbreaks will lead to improved control and intervention policies and disaster preparedness. In this paper,
we introduce a computational framework that brings together spatio–temporal geography and population demographics with specific
disease pathology in a novel simulation paradigm termed, global stochastic field simulation (GSFS). The primary aim of this
simulation paradigm is to facilitate intelligent what-if-analysis in the event of health crisis, such as an influenza pandemic.
The dynamics of any epidemic are intrinsically related to a region’s spatio–temporal characteristics and demographic composition
and as such, must be considered when developing infectious disease control and intervention strategies. Similarly, comparison
of past and current epidemics must include demographic changes into any effective public health policy for control and intervention
strategies. GSFS is a hybrid approach to modeling, implicitly combining agent-based modeling with the cellular automata paradigm.
Specifically, GSFS is a computational framework that will facilitate the effective identification of risk groups in the population
and determine adequate points of control, leading to more effective surveillance and control of infectious diseases epidemics.
The analysis of past disease outbreaks in a given population and the projection of current or future epidemics constitutes
a significant challenge to Public Health. The corresponding design of computational models and the simulation that facilitates
epidemiologists’ understanding of the manifestation of diseases represents a challenge to computer and mathematical sciences. 相似文献
3.
Cities’ ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the research on evaluating
cities’ ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake science, social science, economical
science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities’ ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and
the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements — the possible seismic casualty and economic loss during the future
earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surroundings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based
upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating city’s ability reducing
earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty,
the ratio of economic loss and recovery time are gained utilizing the cities’ prediction results of earthquake disasters which
were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities’ ability reducing
earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities’
ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing
cities’ earthquake disasters loss.
Foundation item: State Important Research Project of China (95130603). 相似文献
4.
地震防灾减灾能力是国家的重点需求,针对当前城市抗震应急存在的灵活性差问题,在过去研究的基础上,将GIS系统应用至城市抗震救灾应急响应中,建立的GIS系统利用地震灾害评估模块、数据库管理模块、地震应急响应和指挥决策模块构成城市抗震救灾应急响应框架,完成城市GIS系统的应用分析。地震灾害评估模块中计算震害总体损失、经济损失和生命损失,实现地震灾害评估信息数据的精确性采集;数据库管理模块中的抗灾救灾应急响应数据库主要利用矢量数据、数字正射影像数据和其他专题数据构成,完成一致性访问各种类型数据,提高城市抗震救灾应急响应灵活性;在响应与决策模块中利用核心服务器实现数据信息的上传下达,实现快速救援响应。研究中对这套GIS系统与当前方法做对比,进行抗震救灾过程灵活性、救援数据精准性的比较实验。实验对比结果表明,所提研究成果提供的救援数据精确性强,且运行过程中灵活系数等部分指标高于当前研究。 相似文献
5.
YU Jinhai & ZHANG Chuanding . Institute of Geodesy Geophysics of Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan China . Zhengzhou Information Engineering University Zhengzhou China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(3):398-405
Boundary value problem (BVP) plays a funda-mental role in physical geodesy that aims at determin-ing the earth’s shape and its external gravity field. TheMolodensky BVP and the Stokes BVP are typical inphysical geodesy, and the gravity anomaly is a kind ofbasic data. With the wide use of GPS, measurementaccuracy of the earth’s surface can reach one centime-ter, while that of the gravity measurement can reachμgals. Hence, it is necessary to establish a new kind ofBVP which can satisfy… 相似文献
6.
地震是群灾之首。基层是发挥政府职能、加强危机管理、大力推进地震应急救援能力建设、防范化解地震灾害风险的重要基础。本文结合我国地震应急救援发展与基层地震应急救援管理工作,阐述了凉山州地震应急救援管理工作实践。四川凉山,立足“防大震、抢大险、救大灾”,开展地震灾害风险管理,提高地震应急救援能力,初步形成了以法制体制机制建设促进地震应急救援管理,以地震应急救援管理振兴防震减灾事业,全面推进民族团结进步的新格局。 相似文献
7.
地震应急预案作为地震应急的核心文件之一,存在操作性不强,针对性不足等问题。在分析地震应急预案特点的基础上提出一种地震应急处置方案技术。地震应急处置方案是地震发生后,为指导地震应急救援,针对具体应急事件的应急处置工作方案。阐述了地震应急处置方案的特点及其与地震应急预案的关系。论述了地震应急处置方案的组成,包括:处置方案框架、应急决策知识和信息技术支撑平台。介绍了地震应急处置方案的工作原理,在信息技术支撑平台上应用地震应急决策知识修正应急处置方案框架并动态生成处置方案。以地市级为例论述了地震应急处置方案框架,并介绍地震应急决策知识的组成。从而为地震应急处置方案的生成与应用奠定基础,该方案试图在一定程度上改进地震应急预案的不足。 相似文献
8.
Earthquake engineering in China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
胡聿贤 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2002,1(1):1-9
The development of earthquake engineering in China is described into three stages. The initial stage in 1950’s – 1960’s was
marked with the initiation of this branch of science from its creation in the first national 12-year plan of science and technology
by specifying earthquake engineering as a branch item and IEM was one participant. The first earthquake zonation map and the
first seismic design code were soon completed and used in engineering design. Site effect on structural design and site selection
were seriously studied. The second stage marked with the occurrence of quite a few strong earthquakes in China, from which
many lessons were learned and corresponding considerations were specified in our design codes and followed in construction
practice. The third stage is a stage of disaster management, which is marked by a series of government documentations, leading
by a national law of the People’s Republic of China on the protecting against and mitigating earthquake disasters adopted
at the meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China in 1997, and
then followed by some provincial and municipal laws to force the actions outlined in the national law. It may be expected
that our society will be much more safer to resist the attack of future strong earthquakes with less losses. Lastly, possible
future developments are also discussed. 相似文献
9.
The elasto-gravitational deformation response of the Earth’s solid parts to the perturbations of the pressure and gravity
on the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and the solid inner core boundary (ICB), due to the dynamical behaviors of the fluid outer
core (FOC), is discussed. The internal load Love numbers, which are formulized in a general form in this study, are employed
to describe the Earth’s deformation. The preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) is used as an example to calculate the internal
load Love numbers on the Earth’s surface, CMB and ICB, respectively. The characteristics of the Earth’s deformation variation
with the depth and the perturbation periods on the boundaries of the FOC are also investigated. The numerical results indicate
that the internal load Love numbers decrease quickly with the increasing degree of the spherical harmonics of the displacement
and depend strongly on the perturbation frequencies, especially on the high frequencies. The results, obtained in this work,
can be used to construct the boundary conditions for the core dynamics of the long-period oscillations of the Earth’s fluid
outer core.
Foundation item: State Natural Science Foundation of China (40174022 and 49925411) and the Projects from Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-106
and KZ952-J1-411). 相似文献
10.
11.
Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard management on Ambae Island,Vanuatu 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
Ambae Island is the largest of Vanuatus active volcanoes. It is also one of the nations potentially most dangerous, with 60 million m3 of lake-water perched at over 1340 m in the summit caldera and over the active vent. In 1995, small phreatic explosions, earthquake swarms and heightened gas release led to calls for evacuation preparation and community volcanic hazard awareness programs for the ~9500 inhabitants. Differences in perspective or world-view between the island dwellers adhering to traditional beliefs (Kastom) and external scientists and emergency managers led to a climate of distrust following this crisis. In an attempt to address these issues, rebuild dialogue and respect between communities, outside scientists and administrators, and move forward in volcanic hazard education and planning for Ambae, we adapted and applied Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) approaches. Initial gender-segregated PRA exercises from two representative communities provided a mechanism for cataloguing local traditional viewpoints and hazard perceptions. Ultimately, by combining elements of these viewpoints and perceptions with science-based management structures, we derived volcanic hazard management guidelines, supported by an alert system and map that were more readily accepted by the test communities than the earlier top-down plans imposed by outside governmental and scientific agencies. The strength of PRA approaches is that they permit scientists to understand important local perspective issues, including visualisations of volcanic hazards, weaknesses in internal and external communication systems, and gender and hierarchy conflicts, all of which can hinder community emergency management. The approach we describe has much to offer both developing and industrialised communities that wish to improve their awareness programs and mitigative planning. This approach should also enhance communication and understanding between volcanologists and the communities they serve. 相似文献
12.
2-D crustal Poisson’s ratio from seismic travel time inversion in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Based on the inversion method of 2D velocity structure and interface, the crustal velocity structures of P-wave and S-wave
along the profile L
1 are determined simultaneously with deep seismic sounding data in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region, and then its Poisson’s
ratio is obtained. Calculated results show that this technique overcomes some defects of traditional forward calculation method,
and it is also very effective to determine Poisson’s ratio distribution of deep seismic sounding profile, especially useful
for study on volcanic magma and crustal fault zone. Study result indicates that there is an abnormally high Poisson’s ratio
body that is about 30 km wide and 12 km high in the low velocity region under Tianchi crater. Its value of Poisson’s ratio
is 8% higher than that of surrounding medium and it should be the magma chamber formed from melted rock with high temperature.
There is a high Poisson’s ratio zone ranging from magma chamber to the top of crust, which may be the uprise passage of hot
substance. The lower part with high Poisson’s ratio, which stretches downward to Moho, is possibly the extrusion way of hot
substance from the uppermost mantle. The conclusions above are consistent with the study results of both tomographic determination
of 3D crustal structure and magnetotelluric survey in this region.
Foundation item: Key Project from China Earthquake Administration and the Project (95-11-02-01) from Ministry of Science and Technology (2001DIA10003).
Contribution No. RCEG200401, Geophysical Exploration Center, China Earthquake Administration. 相似文献
13.
14.
Robert Tenzer Pavel Novák Ilya Prutkin Artu Ellmann Peter Vajda 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2009,53(2):157-167
To reduce the numerical complexity of inverse solutions to large systems of discretised integral equations in gravimetric
geoid/quasigeoid modelling, the surface domain of Green’s integrals is subdivided into the near-zone and far-zone integration
sub-domains. The inversion is performed for the near zone using regional detailed gravity data. The farzone contributions
to the gravity field quantities are estimated from an available global geopotential model using techniques for a spherical
harmonic analysis of the gravity field. For computing the far-zone contributions by means of Green’s integrals, truncation
coefficients are applied. Different forms of truncation coefficients have been derived depending on a type of integrals in
solving various geodetic boundary-value problems. In this study, we utilise Molodensky’s truncation coefficients to Green’s
integrals for computing the far-zone contributions to the disturbing potential, the gravity disturbance, and the gravity anomaly.
We also demonstrate that Molodensky’s truncation coefficients can be uniformly applied to all types of Green’s integrals used
in solving the boundaryvalue problems. The numerical example of the far-zone contributions to the gravity field quantities
is given over the area of study which comprises the Canadian Rocky Mountains. The coefficients of a global geopotential model
and a detailed digital terrain model are used as input data. 相似文献
15.
Two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming: application to water resources management under dual uncertainties 总被引：7，自引：7，他引：0
P. Guo G. H. Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):349-359
In this study, a two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming (TFCCP) approach is developed for water resources management
under dual uncertainties. The concept of distribution with fuzzy probability (DFP) is presented as an extended form for expressing
uncertainties. It is expressed as dual uncertainties with both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. As an improvement upon
the conventional inexact linear programming for handling uncertainties in the objective function and constraints, TFCCP has
advantages in uncertainty reflection and policy analysis, especially when the input parameters are provided as fuzzy sets,
probability distributions and DFPs. TFCCP integrates the two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) and fuzzy chance-constrained
programming within a general optimization framework. TFCCP incorporates the pre-regulated water resources management policies
directly into its optimization process to analyze various policy scenarios; each scenario has different economic penalty when
the promised amounts are not delivered. TFCCP is applied to a water resources management system with three users. Solutions
from TFCCP provide desired water allocation patterns, which maximize both the system’s benefits and feasibility. The results
indicate that reasonable solutions were generated for objective function values and decision variables, thus a number of decision
alternatives can be generated under different levels of stream flows, α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices. 相似文献
16.
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17.
L. Egyed 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1956,33(1):42-48
Summary It is shown that paleogeographical data give evidence for the increase of the Earth’s radius. The average annual increase
computed is 0.5 mm/year. The formation of the continents and ocean basins may be easily explained on the basis of the Earth’s
expansion. The rate of the annual radius increase derived from this explanation is in good agreement with the value determined
from paleogeographical data. The theoretically computed duration of a transgression-regression period corresponds also with
geological observations.
Prof. Dr. L. Egyed, Geophysical Institute, E?tv?s-University,Budapest (Hungary). 相似文献
18.
Hwa-Lung Yu Alexander Kolovos George Christakos Jiu-Chiuan Chen Steve Warmerdam Boris Dev 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):647-572
This paper describes the spatiotemporal epistematics knowledge synthesis and graphical user interface (SEKS–GUI) framework
and its application in medical geography problems. Based on sound theoretical reasoning, the interactive software library
of SEKS–GUI explores heterogeneous (spatially non-homogeneous and temporally non-stationary) health attribute distributions
(disease incidence, mortality, human exposure, epidemic propagation etc.); expresses the health system’s dependence structure
using (ordinary and generalized) spatiotemporal covariance models; synthesizes core knowledge bases, empirical evidence and
multi-sourced system uncertainty; and generates a meaningful picture of the real-world system using space–time dependent probability
functions and associated maps of health attributes. The implementation stages of the SEKS–GUI library are described in considerable
detail using appropriate screens. The wide applicability of SEKS–GUI is demonstrated by reviewing a selection of real-world
case studies.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
19.
20.
A method of urban ecological risk assessment: combining the multimedia fugacity model and GIS 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Hui Min Song Lin Yu Xu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(5):713-719
Industrial pollution has caused serious human health risk because the pollutants can be accumulated in human body via multi
routes in a long term, especially in areas of rapid industrialization. It is of great importance to obtain the pollutants’
information, including the transport routes and spatial distribution in the various environmental media of different sub-regions,
to facilitate more accurate risk assessment and more effective risk management in urban ecosystems. In this article, we proposed
a research framework of urban ecological risk assessment method, which combines the multimedia fugacity model, the multi-route
exposure model, exposure-risk relationships and geographic information system (GIS). An urban ecological risk assessment of
a hypothetical region indicates that it is possible and feasible to introduce GIS into the previous method to satisfy the
requirements of risk management. The assessment results can be further utilized for industrial pollution emission control. 相似文献