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1.
DPFT is a lumped approach for operational flash flood forecasting, based on the unit hydrograph. Using a multi-event alternating iterative algorithm, it identifies a robust and stable average transfer function and a consistent set of effective rainfall series associated with each event at the same time. This key ingredient allows an objective calibration of different loss functions, relating gauged precipitation and effective rainfall. A case study based on an operational French basin (545 km2) is presented. Three lumped production functions have been calibrated and compared. The results show that more elaborate models of loss functions must be proposed, and some possible directions for this are pointed out.  相似文献   

2.
The objective of this paper is to develop a spatial temporal runoff modelling of local rainfall patterns effect on the plant cover hilly lands in Kelantan River Basin. Rainfall interception loss based on leaf area index, loss/infiltration on the ground surface, and runoff calculation were considered as the main plant cover effects on the runoff volume. In this regard, a hydrological and geotechnical grid-based regional model (integrated model) was performed using Microsoft Excel® and GIS framework system for deterministic modelling of rainfall-induced runoff by incorporating plant cover effects. The infiltration process of the current model was integrated with the precipitation distribution method and rainfall interception approach while the runoff analysis of integrated model was employed based on loss/infiltration water on the ground surface with consideration of water interception loss by canopy and the remaining surface water. In the following, the spatial temporal analysis of rainfall-induced runoff was performed using 10 days of hourly rainfall events at the end of December 2014 in Kelantan River Basin. The corresponding changes in pressure head and consequent rate of infiltration were calculated during rainfall events. Subsequently, flood volume is computed using local rainfall patterns, along with water interception loss and the remaining surface water in the study area. The results showed the land cover changes caused significant differences in hydrological response to surface water. The increase in runoff volume of the Kelantan River Basin is as a function of deforestation and urbanization, especially converting the forest area to agricultural land (i.e. rubber and mixed agriculture).  相似文献   

3.
The soils of the Atacama Desert in northern Chile have long been known to contain large quantities of unusual salts, yet the processes that form these soils are not yet fully understood. We examined the morphology and geochemistry of soils on post-Miocene fans and stream terraces along a south-to-north (27° to 24° S) rainfall transect that spans the arid to hyperarid transition (21 to ∼2 mm rain y−1). Landform ages are ? 2 My based on cosmogenic radionuclide concentrations in surface boulders, and Ar isotopes in interbedded volcanic ash deposits near the driest site indicate a maximum age of 2.1 My. A chemical mass balance analysis that explicitly accounts for atmospheric additions was used to quantify net changes in mass and volume as a function of rainfall. In the arid (21 mm rain y−1) soil, total mass loss to weathering of silicate alluvium and dust (−1030 kg m−2) is offset by net addition of salts (+170 kg m−2). The most hyperarid soil has accumulated 830 kg m−2 of atmospheric salts (including 260 kg sulfate m−2 and 90 kg chloride m−2), resulting in unusually high volumetric expansion (120%) for a soil of this age. The composition of both airborne particles and atmospheric deposition in passive traps indicates that the geochemistry of the driest soil reflects accumulated atmospheric influxes coupled with limited in-soil chemical transformation and loss. Long-term rates of atmospheric solute addition were derived from the ion inventories in the driest soil, divided by the landform age, and compared to measured contemporary rates. With decreasing rainfall, the soil salt inventories increase, and the retained salts are both more soluble and present at shallower depths. All soils generally exhibit vertical variation in their chemistry, suggesting slow and stochastic downward water movement, and greater climate variability over the past 2 My than is reflected in recent (∼100 y) rainfall averages. The geochemistry of these soils shows that the transition from arid to hyperarid rainfall levels marks a fundamental geochemical threshold: in wetter soils, the rate and character of chemical weathering results in net mass loss and associated volumetric collapse after 105 to 106 years, while continuous accumulation of atmospheric solutes in hyperarid soils over similar timescales results in dramatic volumetric expansion. The specific geochemistry of hyperarid soils is a function of atmospheric sources, and is expected to vary accordingly at other hyperarid sites. This work identifies key processes in hyperarid soil formation that are likely to be independent of location, and suggests that analogous processes may occur on Mars.  相似文献   

4.
This paper examines the soil loss spatial patterns in the Keiskamma catchment using the GIS-based Sediment Assessment Tool for Effective Erosion Control (SATEEC) to assess the soil erosion risk of the catchment. SATEEC estimates soil loss and sediment yield within river catchments using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and a spatially distributed sediment delivery ratio. Vegetation cover in protected areas has a significant effect in curtailing soil loss. The effect of rainfall was noted as two pronged, higher rainfall amounts received in the escarpment promote vegetation growth and vigour in the Amatole mountain range which in turn positively provides a protective cover to shield the soil from soil loss. The negative aspect of high rainfall is that it increases the rainfall erosivity. The Keiskamma catchment is predisposed to excessive rates of soil loss due to high soil erodibility, steep slopes, poor conservation practices and low vegetation cover. This soil erosion risk assessment shows that 35% of the catchment is prone to high to extremely high soil losses higher than 25 ton ha−1 year−1 whilst 65% still experience very low to moderate levels of soil loss of less than 25 ton ha−1 year−1. Object based classification highlighted the occurrence of enriched valley infill which flourishes in sediment laden ephemeral stream channels. This occurrence increases gully erosion due to overgrazing within ephemeral stream channels. Measures to curb further degradation in the catchment should thrive to strengthen the role of local institutions in controlling conservation practice.  相似文献   

5.
Yu  Pao-Shan  Yang  Tao-Chang 《Natural Hazards》1997,15(1):51-70
In real-time flood warning systems, sufficient lead-time is important for people to take suitable actions. Rainfall forecasting is one of the ways commonly used to extend the lead-time for catchments with short response time. However, an accurate forecast of rainfall is still difficult for hydrologists using the present deterministic model. Therefore, a probability-based rainfall forecasting model, based on Markov chain, was proposed in this study. The rainfall can be forecast one to three hours in advance for a specified nonexceeding probability using the transition probability matrix of rainfall state. In this study, the nonexceeding probability, which was hourly updated on the basis of development or decay of rainfall processes, was taken as a dominant variable parameter. The accuracy of rainfall forecasting one to three hours in advance is concluded from the application of this model to four recording rain gauges. A lumped rainfall-runoff forecasting model derived from a transfer function was further applied in unison with this rainfall forecasting model to forecast flows one to four hours in advance. The results of combination of these two models show good performance with agreement between the observed and forecast hydrographs.  相似文献   

6.
Groundwater levels in hard-rock areas in India have shown very large declines in the recent past. The situation is becoming more critical due to a paucity of rainfall, limited surface water resources and an increasing pattern of groundwater extraction in these areas. Consequently, the Ground Water Department with the aid of World Bank has implemented the water structuring programme to mitigate groundwater scarcity and to develop a viable solution for sustainable development in the region. The present study has been undertaken to assess the impact of artificial groundwater recharge structures in the hard-rock area of Rajasthan, India. In this study groundwater level data (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon) of 85 dug-wells are used, spread over an area of 413.59 km2. The weathered and fractured gneissic basement rocks act as major aquifer in the area. Spatial maps for pre- and post-monsoon groundwater levels were prepared using the kriging interpolation technique with best fitted semi-variogram models (Spherical, Exponential and Gaussian). The groundwater recharge is calculated spatially using the water level fluctuation method. The entire study period (2004–2011) is divided into pre- (2004–2008) and post-intervention (2009–2011) periods. Based on the identical nature of total monsoon rainfall, two combinations of average (2007 and 2009) and more than average (2006 and 2010) rainfall years are selected from the pre- and post-intervention periods for further comparisons. All of the water harvesting structures are grouped into the following categories: as anicuts (masonry overflow structure); percolation tanks; subsurface barriers; and renovation of earthen ponds/nadis. A buffer of 100 m around the intervention site is taken for assessing the influence of these structures on groundwater recharge. The relationship between the monsoon rainfall and groundwater recharge is fitted by power and exponential functions for the periods of 2004–2008 and 2008–2011 with R 2 values of 0.95 and 0.98, respectively. The average groundwater recharge is found to be 18% of total monsoon rainfall prior to intervention and it became 28% during the post-intervention period. About 70.9% (293.43 km2) of the area during average rainfall and more than 95% (396.26 km2) of the area during above-average rainfalls show an increase in groundwater recharge after construction of water harvesting structures. The groundwater recharge pattern indicates a positive impact within the vicinity of intervention sites during both average and above-average rainfall. The anicuts are found to be the most effective recharge structures during periods of above-average rainfall, while subsurface barriers are responded well during average rainfall periods. In the hard-rock terrain, water harvesting structures produce significant increases in groundwater recharge. The geo-spatial techniques that are used are effective for evaluating the response of different artificial groundwater recharge techniques.  相似文献   

7.
Soil moisture balance studies provide a convenient approach to estimate aquifer recharge when only limited site-specific data are available. A monthly mass-balance approach has been utilized in this study to estimate recharge in a small watershed in the coastal bend of South Texas. The developed lumped parameter model employs four adjustable parameters to calibrate model predicted stream runoff to observations at a gaging station. A new procedure was developed to correctly capture the intermittent nature of rainfall. The total monthly rainfall was assigned to a single-equivalent storm whose duration was obtained via calibration. A total of four calibrations were carried out using an evolutionary computing technique called genetic algorithms as well as the conventional gradient descent (GD) technique. Ordinary least squares and the heteroscedastic maximum likelihood error (HMLE) based objective functions were evaluated as part of this study as well. While the genetic algorithm based calibrations were relatively better in capturing the peak runoff events, the GD based calibration did slightly better in capturing the low flow events. Treating the Box-Cox exponent in the HMLE function as a calibration parameter did not yield better estimates and the study corroborates the suggestion made in the literature of fixing this exponent at 0.3. The model outputs were compared against available information and results indicate that the developed modeling approach provides a conservative estimate of recharge.  相似文献   

8.
Taiwan is located in an area affected by Northwest Pacific typhoons, which are also one of the most important sources of rainfall to the island. Unfortunately, the abundant rainfall brought by typhoons frequently produces hazards. In recent years, typhoons and floods have caused serious damage, especially Typhoon Morakot in 2009. In this study, a probabilistic model is developed based on historical events which can be used to assess flood risk in Taiwan. There are 4 separate modules in this model, including a rainfall event module, a hydraulic module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Local data obtained from the Taiwan government are used to construct this model. Historical rainfall data for typhoon and flood events that have occurred since 1960, obtained from the Central Weather Bureau, are used for computing the maximum daily rainfall for each basin. In addition, the latest flood maps from the Water Resources Agency are collected to assess the probable inundation depth. A case study using the local data is carried out. Assessment is made to predict possible economic loss from different financial perspectives such as the total loss, insured loss, and loss exceeding probabilities. The assessment results can be used as a reference for making effective flood risk management strategies in Taiwan.  相似文献   

9.
The present study reports on perturbations of the water column by large rainfall at Lake Alchichica, a saline lake in Central Mexico. Alchichica is located in the “Llanos de San Juan,” a high-altitude plateau with a minimum elevation of 2,300 m above sea level. The climate is arid with annual precipitation less than 400 mm and annual evaporation of 500–600 mm. A single day large rainfall event delivered 1,810,000 m3 of water to the basin, raising the lake’s water level by about 1 m. Temperature and salinity profiles showed an atypical temperature inversion up to 1°C in the upper layer accompanied by salinity decrease up to 0.5 g l−1. Transparency and pH were slightly altered, but dissolved oxygen, nutrients and chlorophyll a concentrations were not changed. In spite of the heavy rainfall and associated wind, the effects of the event were limited to the upper half of the epilimnion. After 2 days, the lake water level returned to its original level. The rapid leakage of the runoff minimized any long-term effects of the large rainfall.  相似文献   

10.
Regulatory actions taken in the Adra River basin (746 km2), located south of the Sierra Nevada Mountains (SE Spain), are analyzed. The Benínar Reservoir (60 hm3), which entered into service in 1983, has suffered from severe leakage from the outset, preventing it from performing the water management functions originally foreseen for it; however, it has also made it possible to determine the response of the underlying carbonate aquifer into which the reservoir water is draining. This response has been studied based on historical data as well as the occurrence of an extraordinary recharge produced by a period of exceptionally heavy rainfall. A conceptual model of the system’s functioning has been established by analyzing leakage rates, piezometric variations, the discharge through the only spring in the area (the Fuentes de Marbella spring) and the physical-chemical characteristics of the aquifer water. Geological and structural aspects of the carbonate formation were also included. An alternative solution for water regulation in the river basin is proposed: the construction of a smaller dam downstream from the spring. This dam would induce recharge through the permeable base of the reservoir, raise the piezometric level and thus increase its storage capacity, as well as control and regulate the water discharged from the spring.  相似文献   

11.
A simplified regression model is here calibrated on the basis of rainfall data records of Sicily (southern Italy), in order to show the model reliability in assessing the R-factor of the Universal Soil Loss Equation and its revised version (RUSLE) and to provide an estimate of long-term rainfall erosivity at medium-regional scale. The proposed model is a rearrangement of a former simplified model, formulated for the Italian environment, grouping three easily available rainfall variables on various time scales, which has been shown to be more successful than others in reproducing the rainfall erosive power over different locations of Italy. A geostatistical interpolation procedure is then applied for generating the regional long-term erosivity map with associated standard error. Areas with severe erosive rainfalls (from 2,000 up to more than 6,000 MJ mm ha−1 h−1) are pointed out which will correspond to areas suffering from severe soil erosion. Solving the problem of calculating the R-factor value in the RUSLE equation by means of such a simplified model here formulated will allow to predict the related soil loss. Moreover, given the availability of long time-series of concerned rainfall data, it will be possible to analyse the variability of rainfall erosivity within the last 50 years, and to investigate the application of RUSLE or similar soil erosion models with forecasting purposes of soil erosion risk.  相似文献   

12.
In the present study, diagnostic studies were undertaken using station-based rainfall data sets of selected stations of Guyana to understand the variability of rainfall. The multidecadal variation in rainfall of coastal station Georgetown and inland station Timehri has shown that the rainfall variability was less during the May–July (20–30%) of primary wet season compared to the December--January (60–70%) of second wet season. The rainfall analysis of Georgetown based on data series from 1916 to 2007 shows that El Niño/La Niña has direct relation with monthly mean rainfall of Guyana. The impact is more predominant during the second wet season December--January. A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model was made operational to generate real-time forecasts up to 84 h based on 00 UTC global forecast system (GFS), NCEP initial condition. The model real-time rainfall forecast during July 2010 evaluation has shown a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the heavy rainfall events and major circulation features for day-to-day operational forecast guidance. In addition to the operational experimental forecast, as part of model validation, a few sensitivity experiments are also conducted with the combination of two cloud cumulus (Kain--Fritsch (KF) and Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ)) and three microphysical schemes (Ferrier et al. WSM-3 simple ice scheme and Lin et al.) for heavy rainfall event occurred during 28–30 May 2010 over coastal Guyana and tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’ formed during 25 August–04 September 2010 over east Caribbean Sea. It was observed that there are major differences in the simulations of heavy rainfall event among the cumulus schemes, in spite of using the same initial and boundary conditions and model configuration. Overall, it was observed that the combination of BMJ and WSM-3 has shown qualitatively close to the observed heavy rainfall event even though the predicted amounts are less. In the case of tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’, the forecast track in all the six experiments based on 00 UTC of 28 August 2010 initial conditions for the forecast up to 84 h has shown that the combination of KF cumulus and Ferrier microphysics scheme has shown less track errors compared to other combinations. The overall average position errors for all the six experiments taken together work out to 103 km in 24, 199 km in 48, 197 km in 72 and 174 km in 84 h.  相似文献   

13.
Flash flood forecasting of catchment systems is one of the challenges especially in the arid ungauged basins. This study is attempted to estimate the relationship between rainfall and runoff and also to provide flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins based on the hydrological characteristics using geographic information system (GIS). Morphometric characteristics of drainage basins provide a means for describing the hydrological behavior of a basin. The study examined the morphometric parameters of Wadi Rabigh with emphasis on its implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), and geological maps (1,250,000) which were subject to field confirmation. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated, and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for the evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine effective morphometric parameters that directly influence on the hydrologic behavior of the Wadi through time of concentration, the flash flood hazard of the Rabigh basin and its subbasins was identified and classified into three groups (High, medium, and low hazard degree). The present work proved that the physiographic features of drainage basin contribute to the possibility of a flash flood hazard evaluation for any particular drainage area. The study provides details on the flash flood prone subbasins and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. Based on two historical data events of rainfall and the corresponding maximum flow rate, morphometric parameters and Stormwater Management and Design Aid software (SMADA 6), it could be to generate the hydrograph of Wadi Rabigh basin. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Rabigh basin, a rainfall event of a total of 22 mm with a duration of 5 h at the station nearby the study area, which has an exceedance probability of 50 % and return period around 2 years, produces a discharge volume of 15.2?×?106 m3 at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 12.5 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge).  相似文献   

14.
The Piemonte regional warning system service, managed by the Environmental Protection Agency of Piemonte (“ARPA Piemonte” as official Italian acronym), is based on an advanced meteo-hydrological automatic monitoring system, and it is integrated with forecasting activities of severe weather-related natural hazards. At present, a meteo-hydrological chain is operated to provide flood forecasting on the main river pattern. The development of a forecasting tool for shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall is presented. Due to the difficulties in modelling shallow landslides triggering in a large and complex area like the Piemonte region, an empirical model is developed on the basis of the correlation between rainfall and previous landslides in historical documents. The research focuses on establishing rainfall thresholds for landslides triggering, differentiating the critical rainfall values through a geological characterisation of the different territories. The period from 1990 to 2002 is considered. A total number of 160 landslides with hourly information and time of triggering are used to calibrate the system. As a first outcome, two different zones have been identified: (1) zones in alpine environments, principally characterised by a bedrock composed of metamorphic rocks, igneous rocks, dolostones or limestones that require high values of critical rainfall and (2) zones in hilly environments, principally characterised by sedimentary bedrock that require low values of critical rainfall. Verification has been performed on a total number of 429 landslides with known date of occurrence. The results show a good agreement with the model with no missed alarms and a very low number of false alarms, thus suggesting an effective operational implementation.  相似文献   

15.
Engineered (structural) debris-flow mitigation for all creeks with elements at risk and subject to debris flows is often outside of the financial capability of the regulating government, and heavy task-specific taxation may be politically undesirable. Structural debris-flow mitigation may only be achieved over long (decadal scale) time periods. Where immediate structural mitigation is cost-prohibitive, an interim solution can be identified to manage residual risk. This can be achieved by implementing a debris-flow warning system that enables residents to reduce their personal risk for loss of life through timely evacuation. This paper describes Canada??s first real-time debris-flow warning system which has been operated for 2 years for the District of North Vancouver. The system was developed based on discriminant function analyses of 20 hydrometric input variables consisting of antecedent rainfall and storm rainfall intensities for a total of 63 storms. Of these 27 resulted in shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, while 36 storms were sampled that did not reportedly result in debris flows. The discriminant function analysis identified as the three most significant variables: the 4-week antecedent rainfall, the 2-day antecedent rainfall, and the 48-h rainfall intensity during the landslide-triggering storm. Discriminant functions were developed and tested for robustness against a nearby rain gauge dataset. The resulting classification functions provide a measure for the likelihood of debris-flow initiation. Several system complexities were added to render the classification functions into a usable and defensible warning system. This involved the addition of various functionality criteria such as not skipping warning levels, providing sufficient warning time before debris flows would occur, and hourly adjustment of actual rainfall vs. predicted rainfall since predicted rainfall is not error-free. After numerous iterations that involved warning threshold and cancelation refinements and further model calibrations, an optimal solution was found that best matches the actual debris-flow data record. Back-calculation of the model??s 21-year record confirmed that 76% of all debris flows would have occurred during warning or severe warning levels. Adding the past 2 years of system operation, this percentage increases marginally to 77%. With respect to the District of North Vancouver boundaries, all debris flows occur during Warning and Severe Warnings emphasizing the validity of the system to the area for which it was intended. To operate the system, real-time rainfall data are obtained from a rain gauge in the District of North Vancouver. Antecedent rainfall is automatically calculated as a sliding time window for the 4-week and 2-day periods every hour. The predicted 48-h storm rainfall data are provided by the Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Centre at the Earth and Ocean Science Department at the University of British Columbia and is updated every hour as rainfall is recorded during a given storm. The warning system differentiates five different stages: no watch, watch level 1 (the warning level is unlikely to be reached), watch level 2 (the warning level is likely to be reached), warning, and severe warning. The debris-flow warning system has operated from October 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010 and October 1, 2010 and April 30, 2011. Fortunately, we were able to evaluate model performance because the exact times of debris flows during November 2009 and January 2010 were recorded. In both cases, the debris flows did not only occur during the warning level but coincided with peaks in the warning graphs. Furthermore, four debris flows occurred during a warning period in November 2009 in the Metro Vancouver watershed though their exact time of day is unknown. The warning level was reached 13 times, and in four of these cases, debris flows were recorded in the study area. One debris flow was recorded during watch II level. There was no severe warning during the 2 years of operation. The current warning level during the wet season (October to April) is accessible via District of North Vancouver??s homepage (www.dnv.org) and by automated telephone message during the rainy season.  相似文献   

16.
Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.  相似文献   

17.
Soil erosion is one of the serious and urgent issues in the Loss Plateau of China. Chinese government has implemented Grain for Green Project to restore the ecological environment since 1999. In order to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of erosion and sediment yield before and after Grain for Green Project in the Loss Plateau, annual soil loss of Yulin from 2000 to 2013 is estimated by Chinese Water Erosion on Hillslope Prediction Model in conjunction with Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems. This model has the characteristics of a simple algorithm and can be applied to predict erosion in the Loss Plateau. The result shows that vegetation cover increased significantly after Grain for Green Project, and the annual average value of NDVI increased from 0.20 to 0.33. The spatiotemporal variations of soil erosion are largely related to rainfall erosion distribution, slope, and land use type. The overall soil erosion categories in the south region are higher than those of the northwest. Mid slopes and valleys are the major topographic contributors to soil erosion. With the growth of slope gradient, soil erosion significantly increased. The soil loss has a decreasing tendency after Grain for Green Project. Although the rainfall of 2002 and 2013 is similar, the soil loss decreased from 5192.86 to 3598.94 t/(km2 a), decreasing by 30.33%. It is also expressed that soil loss appears a reducing trend in the same degree of slope and elevation in 2002, 2007, and 2013. Under the simulation of the maximum and the minimum rainfall, soil erosion amount in 2013 decreased by 29.16 and 30.88%. The study proved that GFG has already achieved conservation of water and soil. The results indicate that the vegetation restoration as part of the Grain for Green Project on the Loss Plateau is effective.  相似文献   

18.
Flood loss analysis and quantitative risk assessment in China   总被引：9，自引：4，他引：5  
Risk assessment is a prerequisite for flood risk management. Practically, most of the decision making requires that the risks and costs of all risk mitigation options are evaluated in quantified terms. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of possible flood loss is very important, especially for emergency planning and pre-disaster preparedness. This paper presents a preliminary methodology and an operational approach for assessing the risk of flood loss to the population, crops, housing, and the economy at county level in China. The present work assesses the risk of loss for each element (people, crops, and so on) under low-, moderate-, and high-intensity flood using intensity-loss curves and loss rates based on historical flood data from 1990 to 2008. Results show that the counties with high flood risk are primarily located in North, East, Central, and South China, particularly in the lower reaches of rivers. On the other hand, the risk of most counties in the western region is generally lower than that of counties in the eastern region. However, for the entire country, the high-risk regions have both a substantial amount of rainfall and low terrain, making such regions highly prone to flooding. Moreover, these high-risk regions present both high population and wealth density.  相似文献   

19.
A process chain for the definition and the performance assessment of an operational regional warning model for rainfall-induced landslides, based on rainfall thresholds, is proposed and tested in a landslide-prone area in the Campania region, southern Italy. A database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003–2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall threshold equations are defined applying a well-known frequentist method to all the reconstructed rainfall conditions responsible for the documented landslides in the area of analysis. Several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities (percentiles) are evaluated, and nine different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, for each combination, the issuing of warning levels is computed by comparing, over time, the measured rainfall with the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system, i.e. the one providing the best model performance in terms of success and error indicators, is selected employing the “event, duration matrix, performance” (EDuMaP) method.  相似文献   

20.
In this study, multi-linear regression (MLR) approach is used to construct intermittent reservoir daily inflow forecasting system. To illustrate the applicability and effect of using lumped and distributed input data in MLR approach, Koyna river watershed in Maharashtra, India is chosen as a case study. The results are also compared with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. MLR attempts to model the relationship between two or more independent variables over a dependent variable by fitting a linear regression equation. The main aim of the present study is to see the consequences of development and applicability of simple models, when sufficient data length is available. Out of 47 years of daily historical rainfall and reservoir inflow data, 33 years of data is used for building the model and 14 years of data is used for validating the model. Based on the observed daily rainfall and reservoir inflow, various types of time-series, cause-effect and combined models are developed using lumped and distributed input data. Model performance was evaluated using various performance criteria and it was found that as in the present case, of well correlated input data, both lumped and distributed MLR models perform equally well. For the present case study considered, both MLR and ARIMA models performed equally sound due to availability of large dataset.  相似文献   

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