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1.
Deciphering the mechanisms through which the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects hydrometeorological parameters in the tropics and extratropics is of great interest. We investigate climatic teleconnections between warm or cold phases of ENSO and streamflow patterns over South Korea using an empirical methodology designed to detect regions showing a strong and consistent hydroclimatic signal associated with ENSO. We calculate not only spatial coherence values by monthly streamflow composite formed over 2‐year ENSO cycle and the first harmonic fit to detect candidate regions but also temporal consistency rates by aggregate composite and index time series to determine core regions. As a result, the core regions, namely, the Han river basin and the Nakdong river basin, are detected with a high level of response of ENSO phenomena to streamflow patterns. The ENSO composites for both core regions indicate drier (wetter) conditions in early autumn of the warm (cold) episode years and wetter (drier) conditions from winter to spring of the following year. For both regions, the spatial coherences are over 92% (82%) and the temporal consistencies are 71% (75%) during the El Niño (La Niña) events. In addition, for the core regions identified by composite‐harmonic analysis for both extreme episodes, the results of comparative analyses by using correlation, annual cycle, and Wilcoxon rank sum test indicate that 2 opposite phases‐streamflow relationships have a tendency of sign reversal of the streamflow anomaly. Also, the positive departures during the El Niño years show more coherent and strong responses than the negative anomalies in the La Niña events. In conclusion, South Korea experiences climatic teleconnection between ENSO forcing and midlatitude streamflow patterns.  相似文献   

2.
Fleming SW  Quilty EJ 《Ground water》2006,44(4):595-599
We used climatological composite analysis to investigate El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals in long-term shallow ground water level observations from four wells in the lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. Significance of differences between warm-phase, cold-phase, and neutral climate states was assessed with a Monte Carlo bootstrap technique. We also considered time series of local precipitation and streamflow for comparison. Composite annual hyetographs suggest that ENSO precipitation impacts are largely limited to winter and spring, with higher and lower rainfall occurring, respectively, under cold-phase and warm-phase episodes. This is consistent with prior work in the region and is found to be directly reflected in both streamflow and ground water level data. The mean magnitude of ENSO terrestrial hydrologic anomalies can be up to approximately 50% of the average seasonal cycle amplitude. ENSO does not appear to systematically affect annual hydrometeorological cycle timing in this study area. However, relative to the surface hydrologic systems considered, aquifers are observed to retain a stronger memory of seasonal ENSO-related precipitation anomalies, with changes potentially extending through the following summer, presumably reflecting storage effects. Most responses appear to be somewhat nonlinear.  相似文献   

3.
ENSO and the natural variability in the flow of tropical rivers   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
This paper examines the relationship between the annual discharges of the Amazon, Congo, Paran á, and Nile rivers and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Since river systems are comprehensive integrators of rainfall over large areas, accurate characterization of the flow regimes in major rivers will increase our understanding of large-scale global atmospheric dynamics. Results of this study reveal that the annual discharges of two large equatorial tropical rivers, the Amazon and the Congo, are weakly and negatively correlated with the equatorial Pacific SST anomalies with 10% of the variance in annual discharge explained by ENSO. Two smaller subtropical rivers, the Nile and the Paraná, show a correlation that is stronger by about a factor of 2. The Nile discharge is negatively correlated with the SST anomaly, whereas the Paraná river discharge shows a positive relation. The tendency for reduced rainfall/discharge over large tropical convection zones in the ENSO warm phase is attributed to global scale subsidence associated with major upwelling in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  相似文献   

4.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(1):57-70
ABSTRACT

Leading patterns of observed seasonal extreme and mean streamflow on the Korean peninsula were estimated using an empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) technique. In addition, statistical correlations on a seasonal basis were calculated using correlation and regression analyses between the leading streamflow patterns and various climate indices based on atmospheric–ocean circulation. The spatio-temporal patterns of the leading EOT modes for extreme and mean streamflow indicate an upstream mode for the Han River, with increasing trends in summer, and a downstream mode for the Nakdong River, with oscillations mainly on inter-decadal time scales in winter. The tropical ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) forcing for both extreme and mean streamflow is coherently associated with summer to winter streamflow patterns. The western North Pacific monsoon has a negative correlation with winter streamflow variability, and tropical cyclone indices also exhibit significant positive correlation with autumn streamflow. Leading patterns of autumn and winter streamflow time series show predictability up to two seasons in advance from the Pacific sea-surface temperatures.  相似文献   

5.
Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated, the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and stream-flow was detected, and the possible association between the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years, the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%, nearly 1℃rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s, and a significant increase in the 1980s and 1990s, the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and  相似文献   

6.
The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation along the Peruvian Pacific coast is investigated over 1964–2011 on the basis of a variety of indices accounting for the different types of El Niño events and atmospheric and oceanographic manifestations of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. We show the existence of fluctuations in the ENSO/precipitation relationship at decadal timescales that are associated with the ENSO property changes over the recent decades. Several indices are considered in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño, namely, the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño, as well as the influence of large‐scale atmospheric variability associated to the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. Three main periods are identified that correspond to the interleave periods between the main climatic transitions over 1964–2011, i.e. the shifts of the 1970s and the 2000s, over which ENSO experiences significant changes in its characteristics. We show that the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the western coast of Peru has experienced significant decadal change. Whereas El Niño events before 2000 lead to increased precipitation, in the 2000s, ENSO is associated to drier conditions. This is due to the change in the main ENSO pattern after 2000 that is associated to cooler oceanic conditions off Peru during warm events (i.e. central Pacific El Niño). Our analysis also indicates that the two extreme El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 have overshadowed actual trends in the relationship between interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and precipitation along the coast of Peru. Overall, our study stresses on the complexity of the hydrological cycle on the western side of the Andes with regard to its relationship with the interannual to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
We investigate a new proxy for ENSO climate variability based on particle‐size data from long‐term, coastal sediment records preserved in a barrier estuary setting. Corresponding ~4–8 year periodicities identified from Wavelet analysis of particle‐size data from Pescadero Marsh in Central Coast California and rainfall data from San Francisco reflect established ENSO periodicity, as further evidenced in the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and thus confirms an important ENSO control on both precipitation and barrier regime variability. Despite the fact that barrier estuary mean particle size is influenced by coastal erosion, precipitation and streamflow, balanced against barrier morphology and volume, it is encouraging that considerable correspondence can also be observed in the time series of MEI, regional rainfall and site‐based mean particle size over the period 1871–2008. This correspondence is, however, weakened after c.1970 by temporal variation in sedimentation rate and event‐based deposition. These confounding effects are more likely when: (i) accommodation space may be a limiting factor; and (ii) particularly strong El Niños, e.g. 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, deposit discrete >cm‐thick units during winter storms. The efficacy of the sediment record of climate variability appears not to be compromised by location within the back‐barrier setting, but it is limited to those El Niños that lead to barrier breakdown. For wider application of this particle size index of ENSO variability, it is important to establish a well‐resolved chronology and to sample the record at the appropriate interval to characterize deposition at a sub‐annual scale. Further, the sample site must be selected to limit the influence of decreasing accommodation space through time (infilling) and event‐based deposition. It is concluded that particle‐size data from back‐barrier sediment records have proven potential for preserving evidence of sub‐decadal climate variability, allowing researchers to explore temporal and spatial patterns in phenomena such as ENSO. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Daily precipitation/temperature data collected at 74 weather stations across the Pearl River basin of China (PRBC), for the years 1952–2013, were used to analyse extreme precipitation (EP) processes at annual and seasonal scales in terms of precipitation magnitude, occurrence rates, and timing. Peak‐over‐threshold sampling, modified Mann‐Kendall trend tests, and Poisson regression model were utilized in this study. Causes driving the observed statistical behaviours of EP were investigated, focusing particularly on the impacts of temperature change and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). EP events, which occur mainly during April and September, are most frequent in June. At an annual scale, they are subject to relatively even interannual distributions during the wet season. Significant trends were observed in the magnitude, frequency, and timing of EP events during the dry seasons, although no such trends were seen during the wet seasons. Seasonal shifts in EP can easily trigger sudden flood or drought events and warming temperatures, and ENSO events also have significant impacts on EP processes across the PRBC, as reflected by their increased magnitude and frequency in the western PRBC and decreased precipitation magnitudes in the eastern PRBC during ENSO periods. These results provide important evidence of regional hydrological responses to global climate changes in terms of EP regimes in tropical and subtropical zones.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

Winter mean 700-hectoPascal (hPa) height anomalies, representing the average atmospheric circulation during the snow season, are compared with annual streamflow measured at 140 streamgauges in the western United States. Correlation and anomaly pattern analyses are used to identify relationships between winter mean atmospheric circulation and temporal and spatial variability in annual streamflow. Results indicate that variability in winter mean 700-Hpa height anomalies accounts for a statistically significant portion of the temporal variability in annual streamflow in the western United States. In general, above-average annual streamflow is associated with negative winter mean 700-Hpa height anomalies over the eastern North Pacific Ocean and/or the western United States. The anomalies produce an anomalous flow of moist air from the eastern North Pacific Ocean into the western United States that increases winter precipitation and snowpack accumulations, and subsequently streamflow. Winter mean 700-hPa height anomalies also account for statistically significant differences in spatial distributions of annual streamflow. As part of this study, winter mean atmospheric circulation patterns for the 40 years analysed were classified into five winter mean 700-hPa height anomaly patterns. These patterns are related to statistically significant and physically meaningful differences in spatial distributions of annual streamflow.  相似文献   

10.
The Georgia Basin–Puget Sound Lowland region of British Columbia (Canada) and Washington State (USA) presents a crucial test in environmental management due to its combination of abundant salmonid habitat, rapid population growth and urbanization, and multiple national jurisdictions. It is also hydrologically complex and heterogeneous, containing at least three streamflow regimes: pluvial (rainfall-driven winter freshet), nival (melt-driven summer freshet), and hybrid (both winter and summer freshets), reflecting differing elevation ranges within various watersheds. We performed bootstrapped composite analyses of river discharge, air temperature, and precipitation data to assess El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) impacts upon annual hydrometeorological cycles across the study area. Canadian and American data were employed from a total of 21 hydrometric and four meteorological stations. The surface meteorological anomalies showed strong regional coherence. In contrast, the seasonal impacts of coherent modes of Pacific circulation variability were found to be fundamentally different between streamflow regimes. Thus, ENSO and PDO effects can vary from one stream to the next within this region, albeit in a systematic way. Furthermore, watershed glacial cover appeared to complicate such relationships locally; and an additional annual streamflow regime was identified that exhibits climatically driven non-linear phase transitions. The spatial heterogeneity of seasonal flow responses to climatic variability may have substantial implications to catchment-specific management and planning of water resources and hydroelectric power generation, and it may also have ecological consequences due to the matching or phase-locking of lotic and riparian biological activity and life cycles to the seasonal cycle. The results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that assessments of the streamflow impacts of ocean–atmosphere circulation modes must accommodate local hydrological characteristics and dynamics. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. The copyright in Paul H. Whitfield's contribution belongs to the Crown in right of Canada and such copyright material is reproduced with the permission of Environment Canada.  相似文献   

11.
Relative little is known about the interaction between climate change and groundwater. Analysis of aquifer response to climatic variability could improve the knowledge related to groundwater resource variations and therefore provides guidance on water resource management. In this work, seasonal and annual variations of groundwater levels in Kumamoto plain (Japan) and their possible interactions with climatic indices and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were analyzed statistically. Results show the following: (1) The water level in the recharge area mainly fluctuates at 1‐ and 2‐year periods, whereas the significant periodicity for water level oscillation in the coastal aquifer is 0.5 year. (2) The aquifer water levels are possibly influenced by variability in precipitation, air temperature, barometric pressure, humidity variances and ENSO. Relative high correlations and large proportions of similarities in wavelet power patterns were found between these variables and water levels. (3) Aquifer response to climatic variances was evaluated using cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence. In recharging aquifers, the ENSO‐induced annual variations in precipitation, air temperature, humidity and barometric pressure affect aquifer water levels. The precipitation, air temperature and humidity respond to ENSO with a 4‐, 6‐ and 8‐month time lag, respectively, whereas the ENSO imparts weak influence on the barometric pressure. Significant biennial variation of water levels during 1991–1995 is caused primarily by precipitation and humidity variations. In the coastal aquifer, the 0.5‐year variability in ENSO is transferred by precipitation, barometric pressure and humidity to aquifer water levels, and the precipitation/humidity influence is more significant comparing with the barometric pressure. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
In conjunction with available climate data, surface runoff is investigated at 12 gauges in the Quesnel watershed of British Columbia to develop its long‐term (1926–2004) hydroclimatology. At Quesnel itself, annual mean values of air temperature, precipitation and runoff are 4·6 °C, 517 and 648 mm, respectively. Climate data reveal increases in precipitation, no significant trend in mean annual air temperature, but an increasing trend in mean minimum temperatures that is greatest in winter. There is some evidence of decreases in winter snow depth. On the water year scale (October–September), a strong positive correlation is found between discharge and precipitation (r = 0·70, p < 0·01) and a weak negative correlation is found between precipitation and temperature (r = ? 0·36, p < 0·01). Long‐term trends using the Mann‐Kendall test indicate increasing annual discharge amounts that vary from 8 to 14% (12% for the Quesnel River, p = 0·03), and also a tendency toward an earlier spring freshet. River runoff increases at a rate of 1·26 mm yr?1 m?1 of elevation from west to east along the strong elevation gradient in the basin. Discharge, temperature and precipitation are correlated with the large‐scale climate indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El‐Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
In this study, the regional tree‐ring chronology of Picea crassifolia was used to estimate annual (September to August) streamflow of the Shiyang River for the period from AD 1765 to 2010. The linear regression model was stable and could explain 41.5% of the variance for the calibration period of 1955–2005. According to the streamflow reconstruction, dry periods with below average streamflow occurred in AD 1775–1804, 1814–1823, 1831–1856, 1862–1867, 1877–1885, 1905–1910, 1926–1932, 1948–1951, 1960–1963 and 1989–2002. Periods of relatively wet years are identified for AD 1765–1774, 1805–1813, 1824–1830, 1857–1861, 1868–1876, 1886–1904, 1911–1925, 1933–1947, 1952–1959, 1964–1988 and 2003–2010. Comparisons with the precipitation reconstructions from surrounding areas supplied a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction. Our reconstructed streamflow is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean. The Multitaper spectral and correlation analyses also suggested that the reconstructed streamflow variation in the Shiyang River could be associated with large‐scale atmospheric‐oceanic variability, such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The linkages among the streamflow reconstruction, NAO and ENSO suggest the connection of regional streamflow variations to the Asian monsoon and westerlies circulations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
This study evaluates changes in streamflow, temperature and precipitation over a time span of 105 years (1906–2010) in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Monthly precipitation and temperature data for 29 climate divisions, and streamflow data for 29 naturalized gauges were analyzed. Two variations of the Mann-Kendall test, considering lag-1 auto correlation and long-term persistence, and the Pettitt test were employed to assess trends and shifts, respectively. Results indicated that streamflow increased during the winter–spring months and decreased during the summer– autumn period. Decreasing trends in winter precipitation were identified over snow-dominated regions in the upper basin. Significant increases in temperature were detected over several months. Major shifts were noticed in 1964, 1968 and in the late 1920s. Increasing temperature while decreasing streamflow and precipitation were noticed after major shifts in the 1930s, and these shifts coincided with coupled phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch  相似文献   

15.
In a water‐stressed region, such as the western United States, it is essential to have long lead times for streamflow forecasts used in reservoir operations and water resources management. Current water supply forecasts provide a 3‐month to 6‐month lead time, depending on the time of year. However, there is a growing demand from stakeholders to have forecasts that run lead times of 1 year or more. In this study, a data‐driven model, the support vector machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory, was used to predict annual streamflow volume with a 1‐year lead time. Annual average oceanic–atmospheric indices consisting of the Pacific decadal oscillation, North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), and a new sea surface temperature (SST) data set for the ‘Hondo’ region for the period of 1906–2006 were used to generate annual streamflow volumes for multiple sites in the Gunnison River Basin and San Juan River Basin, both located in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Based on the performance measures, the model showed very good forecasts, and the forecasts were in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Inclusion of SST information from the Hondo region improved the model's forecasting ability; in addition, the combination of NAO and Hondo region SST data resulted in the best streamflow forecasts for a 1‐year lead time. The results of the SVM model were found to be better than the feed‐forward, back propagation artificial neural network and multiple linear regression. The results from this study have the potential of providing useful information for the planning and management of water resources within these basins. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
长江流域近50年降水变化及其对干流洪水的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
根据我国长江流域气象观测站近42年的资料,分析了整个流域年和季节平均面雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨量的变化特征,以及降水对流域径流和洪水的影响.长江流域年和夏季平均面雨量存在明显的年际和年代变化特征,也表现出比较显著的趋势变化特点.大部分测站年平均面雨量呈增加趋势,夏季和冬季平均面雨量的增加趋势尤其明显;秋季平均面雨量呈显著下降趋势.同时,年和夏季暴雨日数和暴雨量也在较大范围内呈显著增加趋势.长江流域的降水对干流平均流量具有重要影响.1973年、1983年和1998年的洪水主要是由明显高于平均的流域面雨量引起的;长江下游平均流量变化趋势也同流域年平均面雨量、夏季平均面雨量变化趋势基本一致,特别是70年代末以来,下游平均流量和流域面雨量的上升趋势更加明显,并同时在1998年达到最高值.长江流域大的丰水年一般对应El Nino年或El Nino次年,表明E1 Nino对长江较大洪水可能具有一定影响.  相似文献   

17.
This paper highlights how the emerging record of satellite observations from the Earth Observation System (EOS) and A-Train constellation are advancing our ability to more completely document and understand the underlying processes associated with variations in the Earth’s top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation budget. Large-scale TOA radiation changes during the past decade are observed to be within 0.5?Wm?2 per decade based upon comparisons between Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments aboard Terra and Aqua and other instruments. Tropical variations in emitted outgoing longwave (LW) radiation are found to closely track changes in the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During positive ENSO phase (El Ni?o), outgoing LW radiation increases, and decreases during the negative ENSO phase (La Ni?a). The coldest year during the last decade occurred in 2008, during which strong La Nina conditions persisted throughout most of the year. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations show that the lower temperatures extended throughout much of the troposphere for several months, resulting in a reduction in outgoing LW radiation and an increase in net incoming radiation. At the global scale, outgoing LW flux anomalies are partially compensated for by decreases in midlatitude cloud fraction and cloud height, as observed by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer, respectively. CERES data show that clouds have a net radiative warming influence during La Ni?a conditions and a net cooling influence during El Ni?o, but the magnitude of the anomalies varies greatly from one ENSO event to another. Regional cloud-radiation variations among several Terra and A-Train instruments show consistent patterns and exhibit marked fluctuations at monthly timescales in response to tropical atmosphere-ocean dynamical processes associated with ENSO and Madden–Julian Oscillation.  相似文献   

18.
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19.
Runoff signatures, including low flow, high flow, mean flow and flow variability, have important implications on the environment and society, predominantly through drought, flooding and water resources. Yet, the response of runoff signatures has not been previously investigated at the global scale, and the influencing mechanisms are largely unclear. Hence, this study makes a global assessment of runoff signature responses to the El Niño and La Niña phases using daily streamflow observations from 8217 gauging stations during 1960–2015. Based on the Granger causality test, we found that ~15% of the hydrological stations of multiple runoff signatures show a significant causal relationship with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO). The quantiles of all runoff signatures were larger during the El Niño phase than during the La Niña phase, implying that the entire flow distribution tends to shift upward during El Niño and downward during La Niña. In addition, El Niño has different effects on low and high flows: it tends to increase the low and mean flow signatures but reduces the high flow and flow variability signatures. In contrast, La Niña generally reduces all runoff signatures. We highlight that the impacts of ENSO on streamflow signatures are manifested by its effects on precipitation (P), potential evaporation (PET) and leaf area index (LAI) through ENSO-induced atmospheric circulation changes. Overall, our study provides a comprehensive picture of runoff signature responses to ENSO, with valuable insights for water resources management and flood and drought disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

20.
《Journal of Hydrology》2003,270(1-2):135-144
The interannual variability in streamflow presents challenges in managing the associated risks and opportunities of water resources systems. This paper investigates the use of seasonal streamflow forecasts to help manage three water resources systems in south-east Australia. The seasonal streamflow forecasts are derived from the serial correlation in streamflow and the relationship between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and streamflow. This paper investigates the use of ENSO and serial correlation in reservoir inflow to optimise water restriction rules for an urban township and the use of seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow to help make management decisions in two irrigation systems. The results show a marginal benefit in using seasonal streamflow forecasts in the three management examples. The results suggest that although the ENSO–streamflow teleconnection and the serial correlation in streamflow are statistically significant, the correlations are not sufficiently high to considerably benefit the management of conservative low-risk water resources systems. However, the seasonal forecasts can be used in the system simulations to provide an indication of the likely increases in the available water resources through an irrigation season, to allow irrigators to make more informed risk-based management decisions.  相似文献   

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