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1.
On the basis of the IPCC B2, A1b and B1 baseline scenarios, mitigation scenarios were developed that stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 650, 550 and 450 and – subject to specific assumptions – 400 ppm CO2-eq. The analysis takes into account a large number of reduction options, such as reductions of non-CO2 gases, carbon plantations and measures in the energy system. The study shows stabilization as low as 450 ppm CO2-eq. to be technically feasible, even given relatively high baseline scenarios. To achieve these lower concentration levels, global emissions need to peak within the first two decades. The net present value of abatement costs for the B2 baseline scenario (a medium scenario) increases from 0.2% of cumulative GDP to 1.1% as the shift is made from 650 to 450 ppm. On the other hand, the probability of meeting a two-degree target increases from 0%–10% to 20%–70%. The mitigation scenarios lead to lower emissions of regional air pollutants but also to increased land use. The uncertainty in the cost estimates is at least in the order of 50%, with the most important uncertainties including land-use emissions, the potential for bio-energy and the contribution of energy efficiency. Furthermore, creating the right socio-economic and political conditions for mitigation is more important than any of the technical constraints.  相似文献   

2.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):87-102
Alternative mechanisms for EU ETS (European Union Emissions Trading Scheme) quota allocations within the Romanian economy were evaluated using a general equilibrium model within a dynamic intertemporal framework. Several distribution rules were simulated based on: the historical emissions, the least-cost approach, and the auctioning scheme with and without a preliminary selection of eligible sectors. We found that the resulting marginal abatement cost in ETS-eligible sectors is only €5.75/tCO2 for reducing pollution by 20.7%. Such a low cost is explained by low energy prices and by substitution possibilities with low carbon content resources (nuclear and hydroelectricity). Including all sectors in the trade creates a more flexible market than in the ETS, since more reduction options are available. The ETS has high feasibility for monitoring. All eligible sectors (except refineries and metallurgy) present the lowest abatement costs in the economy. Auctioning introduces a strong carbon price signal, which reduces emission intensity but creates distortions in terms of trade and worsens the country's energy dependency. Environmental policy has modest macroeconomic results and tends to correct the resources allocation. The strong double dividend obtained under certain circumstances indicates Romania's potential for improving its energy efficiency and carbon intensity.  相似文献   

3.
Various climate protocol proposals oblige different industrialized countries to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions. In principle, the total costs of these obligations could be substantially reduced if emission reductions are implemented in regions with low marginal costs for CO2 reduction. This has been difficult to quantify because of lack of models with suitable regional and sectoral detail. In this paper we perform these calculations by taking advantage of the capability of the IMAGE 2 model to compute regional emissions and costs. Two main options are examined for allocating emission reductions required of industrialized regions in a cost effective manner: (1) allocating them among industrialized regions (2) allocating them among all world regions. The cost savings for each of these options are presented. The main conclusions are that (a) it is of great importance for the cost comparisons of protocols to use a well defined baseline scenario and clearly formulated targets, and (b) large economic benefits, in the order of 35–65%, can accrue from joint-implementation agreements which allocate investments on the basis of net marginal costs of CO2 emission reduction.  相似文献   

4.
100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are used almost universally to compare emissions of greenhouse gases in national inventories and reduction targets. GWPs have been criticised on several grounds, but little work has been done to determine global mitigation costs under alternative physics-based metrics . We used the integrated assessment model MESSAGE to compare emission pathways and abatement costs for fixed and time-dependent variants of the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) with those based on GWPs, for a policy goal of limiting the radiative forcing to a specified level in the year 2100. We find that fixed 100-year GTPs would increase global abatement costs (discounted and aggregated over the 21st century) under this policy goal by 5–20 % relative to 100-year GWPs, whereas time-varying GTPs would reduce costs by about 5 %. These cost differences are smaller than differences arising from alternative assumptions regarding agricultural mitigation potential and much smaller than those arising from alternative radiative forcing targets. Using the land-use model GLOBIOM, we show that alternative metrics affect food production differently in different world regions depending on regional characteristics of future land-use change to meet growing food demand. We conclude that under scenarios of complete participation, the choice of metric has a limited impact on global abatement costs but could be important for the political economy of regional and sectoral participation in collective mitigation efforts, in particular changing costs and gains over time for agriculture and energy-intensive sectors.  相似文献   

5.
It has been suggested that calculations of historical responsibility for global warming should be used to distribute mitigation requirements in future climate agreements. For a medium-term mitigation scenario, we calculate regional mitigation costs resulting from global allocation schemes based on the Brazilian Proposal that solely incorporate historical responsibility as a burden sharing criterion. We find that they are likely to violate ability-to-pay principles. In spite of less stringent abatement requirements, developing country regions experience cost burdens (as a percentage of GDP) in the same range as those of developed countries. We also assess the policy options available for calculating historical responsibility. The periodic updating of responsibility calculations over time, concerns over the robustness and availability of emissions data, and the question of whether past emissions were knowingly harmful, may lead to policy choices that increase the relative historical responsibility attributed to developing countries. This, in turn, would increase their mitigation cost burden.  相似文献   

6.
Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle–climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed to forcings using an impulse–response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO2 to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO2 mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO2, however, increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered, and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus, non-CO2 mitigation is limited and net CO2 emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling, partly masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the century.  相似文献   

7.
A box model is used to explore the detailed chemistry of C2 and C3 organic compounds in the marine troposphere by tracing the individual reaction paths resulting from the oxidation of ethane, ethene, acetylene, propane, propene and acetic acid. The mechanisms include chemical reactions in the gas phase and in the aqueous phase of clouds and aerosol particles at cloud level under conditions resembling those in the northern hemisphere. Organic hydroperoxides are found to be important intermediate products, with subsequent reactions leading partly to the formation of mixed hydroxy or carbonyl hydroperoxides that are readily absorbed into cloud water, where they contribute significantly to the formation of multifunctional organic compounds and organic acids. Organic hydroperoxides add little to the oxidation of sulfur dioxide dissolved in the aqueous phase, which is dominated by H2O2. Next to acetaldehyde and acetone, glycol aldehyde, glyoxal, methyl glyoxal and hydroxy propanone are prominent oxidation products in the gas and the aqueous phase. Acetaldehyde is not efficiently converted to acetic acid in clouds; the major local sources of acetic acid are gas-phase reactions. Other acids produced include hydroperoxy acetic, glycolic, glyoxylic, oxalic, pyruvic, and lactic acid. The mechanism of Schuchmann et al. (1985), which derives glycolic and glyoxylic acid from the oxidation of acetate, is found unimportant in the marine atmosphere. The principal precursors of glyoxylic acid are glyoxal and glycolic acid. The former derives mainly from acetylene and ethene, the latter from glycolaldehyde, also an oxidation product of ethene. The oxidation of glyoxylic acid leads to oxalic acid, which accumulates and is predicted to reach steady state concentrations in the range 30–90 ng m−3. This is greater, yet of the same magnitude, than the concentrations observed over the remote Pacific Ocean.  相似文献   

8.
The comprehensive approach adopted in the Kyoto Protocol relies on the use of 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to convert emissions of various gases to `carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents'. This particular set of weights, or metric, has a limited capacity to handle the large variations in atmospheric adjustment times, and emissions of various gases that are equal in terms of `CO2 equivalents' will not result in equal climatic effects. In this study, the 100-year GWP metric is assessed in the context of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. Using data from Norway, we explore how abatement policy formulated on the basis of 100-year GWPs compares to policies based on other metrics in terms of compliance costs and abatement profile, that is, the composition of the basket of gases reduced. We found that the costs for Norway change significantly when other metrics are used, but changes in the composition of the basket of gases are moderate. However, since compliance costs can be controlled through other mechanisms for post-Kyoto Protocols, the use of 100-year GWPs versus other metrics has little impact on the general formulation of Norwegian climate policy.  相似文献   

9.
This paper analyzes the regional distribution of climate change mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime. Four stylized burden-sharing rules are considered, ranging from GDP-based permit allocations to schemes that foresee a long-term convergence of per-capita emission permits. The comparison of results from three structurally different hybrid, integrated energy-economy models allows us to derive robust insights as well as identify sources of uncertainty with respect to the regional distribution of the costs of climate change mitigation. We find that regional costs of climate change mitigation may deviate substantially from the global mean. For all models, the mitigation cost average of the four scenarios is higher for China than for the other macro-regions considered. Furthermore, China suffers above-world-average mitigation costs for most burden-sharing rules in the long-term. A decomposition of mitigation costs into (a) primary (domestic) abatement costs and (b) permit trade effects, reveals that the large uncertainty about the future development of carbon prices results in substantial uncertainties about the financial transfers associated with carbon trade for a given allocation scheme. This variation also implies large uncertainty about the regional distribution of climate policy costs.  相似文献   

10.
This paper studies the interplay between climate, health, and the economy in a stylized world with eleven heterogeneous regions, with special emphasis on USA, Europe, China, India, and Africa. We introduce health impacts into a simple economic integrated assessment model where both the local cooling effect of SO 2 and the global warming effect of CO 2 are endogenous, and investigate how these factors affect the equilibrium path. Regions do not respond in the same way to climate change. In particular, emission abatement rates and health costs depend on the economic and geographical characteristics of each region. Two policy scenarios are considered, Nash and Optimal, for which we present both global and regional results. Results for Africa and China are highlighted.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

In the long term, the Kyoto Protocol will be insufficient to stabilize the greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere; quantified commitments will also be essential for major developing countries (and the US). International cooperation mechanisms, such as permit trading systems, can help achieve global economic efficiency. However, the initial allocation of emission permits raises many debates on equity. The main objective is to propose a decision aid tool for decision makers, which is capable of providing relevant information on various equitable permit allocation schemes and burden sharing. A dynamic multicriteria model is proposed to share the global quantity of permits among 15 regions, taking into account multiple definitions of equity and regional interests. The World-MARKAL energy model is used to compute the gross reduction cost (before permit exchanges) for each region. Afterward, it is possible to calculate their net reduction costs (after permit exchanges) according to different allocation schemes. A realistic simulation of the tool provides examples of results, i.e. ranges of permit allocations and net costs for each region. Finally, some recommendations are proposed to policy makers to design a decision process adapted to the global context of negotiations.  相似文献   

12.
This paper investigates the potential impacts of alternative international climate change scenarios based on different policies and technological circumstances on future emission pathways and abatement costs. It also examines if these hypothetical scenarios could result in significant emission reductions required to control the global temperature from rising to no more than 2.5 °C above preindustrial level. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper examines these issues under 12 scenarios derived from four policy perspectives and three technology dimensions. Results show that the no-policy-change baseline scenarios lead to high global average temperatures in the future. To control the temperature efficiently, every global region will be required to undertake considerable abatement efforts. Current country pledges alone, even if fully implemented, cannot control the global temperature in the future to within a comfortable zone. There will still be large gap between the reductions needed to meet the 2.5 degree objective, associated with 550 ppm and the reductions associated with existing abatement efforts. Further stringent policies together with favourable technological conditions may lead to the desired level of temperature control. Participation by only a subset of nations not only makes achieving the temperature goal difficult but also costly. To achieve temperature control efficiently, global coordination and full participation by all regions are necessary and global participation may reduce global abatement costs. It is worth noting that abatement costs vary widely across regions under different policy and technology scenarios.  相似文献   

13.
The new European Council Directive (PE-CONS 3696/07) frames the inhalable (PM10) and fine particles (PM2.5) on priority to chemically characterize these fractions in order to understand their possible relation with health effects. Considering this, PM2.5 was collected during four different seasons to evaluate the relative abundance of bulk elements (Cl, S, Si, Al, Br, Cu, Fe, Ti, Ca, K, Pb, Zn, Ni, Mn, Cr and V) and water soluble ions (F−, Cl−, NO2 −, NO3 −, SO4 2−, Na+, NH4 +, Ca2+ and Mg2+) over Menen, a Belgian city near the French border. The air quality over Menen is influenced by industrialized regions on both sides of the border. The most abundant ionic species were NO3 −, SO4 2− and NH4 +, and they showed distinct seasonal variation. The elevated levels of NO3 − during spring and summer were found to be related to the larger availability of the NOx precursor. The various elemental species analyzed were distinguished into crustal and anthropogenic source categories. The dominating elements were S and Cl in the PM2.5 particles. The anthropogenic fraction (e.g. Zn, Pb, and Cu) shows a more scattered abundance. Furthermore, the ions and elemental data were also processed using principal component analysis and cluster analysis to identify their sources and chemistry. These approach identifies anthropogenic (traffic and industrial) emissions as a major source for fine particles. The variations in the natural/anthropogenic fractions of PM2.5 were also found to be a function of meteorological conditions as well as of long-range transport of air masses from the industrialized regions of the continent. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

14.
Output and abatement effects of allocation readjustment in permit trade   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
In permit trading systems, free initial allocation is common practice. A recent example is the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). We investigate effects of different free allocation schemes on incentives and identify significant perverse effects on abatement and output employing a simple multi-period model. Firms have incentives for strategic action if allocation in one period depends on their actions in previous ones and thus can be influenced by them. These findings play a major role where trading schemes become increasingly popular as environmental or resource use policy instruments. This is of particular relevance in the EU-ETS where the current period is a trial-period before the first commitment period of the Kyoto protocol. Finally, this paper fills a gap in the literature by establishing a consistent terminology for initial allocation.  相似文献   

15.
A regional surface carbon dioxide (CO2) flux inversion system, the Tan-Tracker-Region, was developed by incorporating an assimilation scheme into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional chemical transport model to resolve fine-scale CO2 variability over East Asia. The proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation approach (POD-4DVar) is the core algorithm for the joint assimilation framework, and simultaneous assimilations of CO2 concentrations and surface CO2 fluxes are applied to help reduce the uncertainty in initial CO2 concentrations. A persistence dynamical model was developed to describe the evolution of the surface CO2 fluxes and help avoid the “signal-to-noise” problem; thus, CO2 fluxes could be estimated as a whole at the model grid scale, with better use of observation information. The performance of the regional inversion system was evaluated through a group of single-observation-based observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). The results of the experiments suggest that a reliable performance of Tan-Tracker-Region is dependent on certain assimilation parameter choices, for example, an optimized window length of approximately 3 h, an ensemble size of approximately 100, and a covariance localization radius of approximately 320 km. This is probably due to the strong diurnal variation and spatial heterogeneity in the fine-scale CMAQ simulation, which could affect the performance of the regional inversion system. In addition, because all observations can be artificially obtained in OSSEs, the performance of Tan-Tracker-Region was further evaluated through different densities of the artificial observation network in different CO2 flux situations. The results indicate that more observation sites would be useful to systematically improve the estimation of CO2 concentration and flux in large areas over the model domain. The work presented here forms a foundation for future research in which a thorough estimation of CO2 flux variability over East Asia could be performed with the regional inversion system.  相似文献   

16.
The recent rise in agricultural commodity prices and the expectation that high price will persist have triggered a wave of farmland expansion in regions where land resources are still available. One such region is the former Soviet Union, where the collapse of socialism caused massive agricultural abandonment and where some of these lands are now being brought back into production. Yet, the extent and spatial patterns of recultivation, and what determines these patterns, remains unclear. We examined the extent of recultivation of abandoned agricultural land in Ukraine since 2007 using a new, satellite-based recultivation map and assessed the effect of biophysical and socioeconomic determinants on recultivation patterns using boosted regression trees. We found key predictors of recultivation to be related to the suitability of land for agriculture (i.e., soil quality, temperature). Accessibility to major cities was also important, with most recultivation happening closer to settlements, but this influence varied across Ukraine. Variables related to agricultural management (fertilizer input, mechanization) and demography were negligible in explaining recultivation in our analyses. These factors suggest that recultivation patterns were primarily driven by factors related to land productivity, with recultivation focusing on the most promising areas. Given the remaining large amount of unused agricultural land in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, and considering that much abandonment occurred in areas only marginally suited to agriculture, our findings provide important insights into where recultivation can be expected to happen and thus for assessing the potential socioeconomic and environmental impacts of recultivation.  相似文献   

17.
Photochemical indicators for determination of O3–NOx–ROG sensitivity and their sensitivity to model parameters are studied for a variety of polluted conditions using a comprehensive mixed-phase chemistry box model and the novel automatic differentiation ADIFOR tool. The main chemical reaction pathways in all phases, interfacial mass transfer processes, and ambient physical parameters that affect the indicators are identified and analyzed. Condensed mixed-phase chemical mechanisms are derived from the sensitivity analysis.Our results show that cloud chemistry has a significant impact on the indicators and their sensitivities, particularly on those involving H2O2, HNO3, HCHO, and NOz. Caution should be taken when applying the established threshold values of indicators in regions with large cloud coverage. Among the commonly used indicators, NOy and O3/NOy are relatively insensitive to most model parameters, whereas indicators involving H2O2, HNO3, HCHO, and NOz are highly sensitive to changes in initial species concentrations, reaction rate constants, equilibrium constants, temperature, relative humidity, cloud droplet size, and cloud water content.  相似文献   

18.
Air pollution has been recognized as a significant problem in China. In its Twelfth Five Year Plan, China proposes to reduce SO2 and NOx emissions significantly, and here we investigate the cost of achieving those reductions and the implications of doing so for CO2 emissions. We extend the analysis through 2050, and either hold emissions policy targets at the level specified in the Plan, or continue to reduce them gradually. We apply a computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy that includes a representation of pollution abatement derived from detailed assessment of abatement technology and costs. We find that China's SO2 and NOx emissions control targets would have substantial effects on CO2 emissions leading to emissions savings far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet its CO2 intensity targets. However, the cost of achieving and maintaining the pollution targets can be quite high given the growing economy. In fact, we find that the near term pollution targets can be met while still expanding the use of coal, but if they are, then there is a lock-in effect that makes it more costly to maintain or further reduce emissions. That is, if firms were to look ahead to tighter targets, they would make different technology choices in the near term, largely turning away from increased use of coal immediately.  相似文献   

19.
In this two-part paper we evaluate the effect of “endogenizing” technological learning and strategic behavior of agents in economic models used to assess climate change policies. In the first part we show the potential impact of R&D policies or demonstration and deployment (D&D) programs in the context of stringent stabilization scenarios. In the second part we show how game-theoretic methods can be implemented in climate change economic models to take into account three types of strategic interactions: (i) the market power of the countries benefiting from very low abatement costs on international markets for CO2 emissions, (ii) the strategic behavior of governments in the domestic allocation of CO2 emissions quotas, and (iii) the non-cooperative behavior of countries and regions in the burden sharing of CO2 concentration stabilization. The two topics of endogenous learning and game-theoretic approach to economic modeling are two manifestations of the need to take into account the strategic behavior of agents in the evaluation of climate change policies. In the first case an R&D policy or a demonstration and deployment (D&D) program are put in place in order to attain a cost reduction through the learning effect; in the second case the agents (countries) reply optimally to the actions decided by the other agents by exploiting their strategic advantages. Simulations based on integrated assessment models illustrate the approaches. These studies have been conducted under the Swiss NCCR-Climate program.  相似文献   

20.
Increases in extreme precipitation greater than in the mean under increased greenhouse gases have been reported in many climate models both on global and regional scales. It has been proposed in a previous study that whereas global-mean precipitation change is primarily constrained by the global energy budget, the heaviest events can be expected when effectively all the moisture in a volume of air is precipitated out, suggesting the intensity of these events increases with availability of moisture, and significantly faster than the global mean. Thus under conditions of constant relative humidity one might expect the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to give a constraint on changes in the uppermost quantiles of precipitation distributions. This study examines if the phenomenon manifests on regional and seasonal scales also. Zonal analysis of daily precipitation in the HadCM3 model under a transient CO2 forcing scenario shows increased extreme precipitation in the tropics accompanied by increased drying at lower percentiles. At mid- to high-latitudes there is increased precipitation over all percentiles. The greatest agreement with Clausius–Clapeyron predicted change occurs at mid-latitudes. This pattern is consistent with other climate model projections, and suggests that regions in which the nature of the ambient flows change little give the greatest agreement with Clausius–Clapeyron prediction. This is borne out by repeating the analyses at gridbox level and over season. Furthermore, it is found that Clausius–Clapeyron predicted change in extreme precipitation is a better predictor than directly using the change in mean precipitation, particularly between 60°N and 60°S. This could explain why extreme precipitation changes may be more detectable then mean changes.  相似文献   

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