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1.
The 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had a devastating effect on the European air traffic network, preventing air travel throughout most of Europe for 6 days (Oroian in ProEnvironment 3:5–8, 2010). The severity of the disruption was surprising as previous research suggests that this type of network should be tolerant to random hazard (Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000; Strogatz in Nature 410(6825):268–276, 2001). The source of this hazard tolerance lies in the degree distribution of the network which, for many real-world networks, has been shown to follow a power law (Albert et al. in Nature 401(6749):130–131, 1999; Albert et al. in Nature 406(6794):378–382, 2000). In this paper, we demonstrate that the ash cloud was unexpectedly disruptive because it was spatially coherent rather than uniformly random. We analyse the spatial dependence in air traffic networks and demonstrate how the combination of their geographical distribution and their network architectures jeopardises their inherent hazard tolerance.  相似文献   

2.
Applying Fe2+–Mg exchange geothermometers to natural samples may lead to incorrect temperature estimates if significant Fe3+ is present. In order to quantify this effect, high-pressure experiments were carried out in a belt apparatus in a natural system close to CFMAS at 5 GPa and 1,100–1,400 °C. The oxygen fugacity in the experiments was at or below the Re–ReO2 buffer. This is at significantly more oxidized conditions than in previous experiments, and, as consequence, higher Fe3+/Fe2+ ratios were generated. The Fe3+ content of garnet in the experiments was quantified by electron microprobe using the flank method. Making the usual assumption that Fetotal = Fe2+, the two-pyroxene thermometer of Brey and Köhler (J Pet 31:1353–1378, 1990) reproduced the experimental temperature to ±35 °C and the garnet–clinopyroxene Fe2+–Mg exchange thermometer of Krogh (Contrib Miner Pet 99:44–48, 1988) overestimated the temperatures on average by only 25 °C. On the other hand, application of the garnet–olivine (O’Neill and Wood in Contrib Miner Pet 70:59–70, 1979) and garnet–orthopyroxene (Harley in Contrib Miner Pet 86:359–373, 1984) exchange geothermometers yielded an underestimation in calculated temperatures of >200 °C. However, making explicit accounting for Fe3+ in garnet (i.e. using only measured Fe2+) leads to a vast improvement in the agreement between calculated and experimental temperatures, generally to within ±70 °C for the garnet–orthopyroxene geothermometer as well as noticeable improvement of calculated temperatures for the garnet–olivine geothermometer. Our results demonstrate that the two-pyroxene and garnet–clinopyroxene thermometers are rather insensitive to the presence of Fe3+ whilst direct accounting of Fe3+ in garnet is essential when applying the garnet–olivine and garnet–orthopyroxene thermometers.  相似文献   

3.
The authors (Lloret-Cabot et al. in Acta Geotech 1–23, 2017) applied the glasgow coupled model (GCM), originally proposed by Wheeler et al. (Géotechnique 53(1):41–54, 2003), to the simulation of several experimental tests that involve transition between saturated and unsaturated states. The authors show qualitatively, but not quantitatively, predictions of GCM for shrinkage during air drying of normally consolidated samples (Fig. 13) under low mechanical stress conditions, without presenting the material parameters. The discussers, who have worked with GCM to model multilayer deposition of tailings/soft soils (Qi in Numerical investigation for slope stability of expansive soils and large strain consolidation of soft soils. Doctoral dissertation, University of Ottawa, 2017; Qi et al. in J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 143(7):04017018, 2017, Qi et al. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 143(7):04017019, 2017), have made quantitative predictions of similar cases. Satisfactory simulations of such cases using GCM are sensitive to the selection of the coupling parameters k1 and k2. By considering an alternative analytical form of GCM, an analytical procedure can be derived for calibrating the coupling parameters for problems involving virgin drying.  相似文献   

4.
This study provides new insights into the relationship between radiation-dose-dependent structural damage due to natural U and Th impurities and the anisotropic mechanical properties (Poisson’s ratio, elastic modulus and hardness) of zircon. Natural zircon samples from Sri Lanka (see Muarakami et al. in Am Mineral 76:1510–1532, 1991) and synthetic samples, covering a dose range of zero up to 6.8 × 1018 α-decays/g, have been studied by nanoindentation. Measurements along the [100] crystallographic direction and calculations, based on elastic stiffness constants determined by Özkan (J Appl Phys 47:4772–4779, 1976), revealed a general radiation-induced decrease in stiffness (~54 %) and hardness (~48 %) and an increase in the Poisson’s ratio (~54 %) with increasing dose. Additional indentations on selected samples along the [001] allowed one to follow the amorphization process to the point that the mechanical properties are isotropic. This work shows that the radiation-dose-dependent changes of the mechanical properties of zircon can be directly correlated with the amorphous fraction as determined by previous investigations with local and global probes (Ríos et al. in J Phys Condens Matter 12:2401–2412, 2000a; Farnan and Salje in J Appl Phys 89:2084–2090, 2001; Zhang and Salje in J Phys Condens Matter 13:3057–3071, 2001). The excellent agreement, revealed by the different methods, indicates a large influence of structural and even local phenomena on the macroscopic mechanical properties. Therefore, this study indicates the importance of acquiring better knowledge about the mechanical long-term stability of radiation-damaged materials.  相似文献   

5.
An enhanced SMA based SCS-CN inspired model for watershed runoff prediction   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Incorporation of initial soil moisture (V 0) in the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) methodology helps to avoid the sudden jumps in Curve Number (CN) and, in turn, in computed runoff. It invoked the development of an enhanced (yet simple) Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) procedure-based-SCS-CN inspired model, by incorporating initial moisture (V 0). Its performance is tested using a dataset of 152 small to large watersheds of USDA (total 38,169 storm events), and compared with original SCS-CN method, Mishra and Singh (Acta Geophys Polon 50(3):457–477, 2002), Michel et al. (Water Resour Res 41(2):W02011, 2005) and Singh et al. (Water Resour Manag 29(11): 4111–4127, 2015) model using four statistical indices (RMSE, R 2, PBIAS and NSE) and rank grading system (RGS). The proposed model scores highest (= 691 marks out of maximum 2280 marks) (Rank I) followed by Singh et al. (Water Resour Manag 29(11):4111–4127, 2015) model with 642 marks (Rank II), Michel et al. (Water Resour Res 41(2):W02011, 2005) model with 376 marks (Rank III) and Mishra and Singh model with 362 marks (= Rank IV). The original SCS-CN model, however, performs the poorest of all with 209 marks (Rank V).  相似文献   

6.
The garnet–orthopyroxene pairs are commonly found in the assemblages of basic granulites/charnockite and hence are suitable for estimating equilibrium temperature of these metamorphic rocks. At present, there are many calibrations of garnet–orthopyroxene thermometer that may confuse geologists in choosing a reliable thermometer. To test the accuracy of the garnet–orthopyroxene thermometers, we have applied 14 models formulated by a number of workers since 1980 to date. We have collated 51 samples from the literature all over the world, which has been processed through the “Gt-Opx.EXE” software. Based on the present study, we have identified a set of the best among all the 14 models which were considered under this comparative study. We have concluded that the five garnet–orthopyroxene (Gt-Opx) thermometers are the most valid and reliable of this kind of thermometer: Aranovich and Berman (Am Mineral 82:345–353, 1997), Raith et al. (Earth Sci 73:211–244, 1983), Harley (Contrib Mineral Petrol 86:359–373, 1984), Nimis and Grütter (Contrib Mineral Petrol 159:411–427, 2010), and Sen and Bhattacharya (Contrib Mineral Petrol 88:64–71, 1984).  相似文献   

7.
Micro-mechanical failure analysis of wet granular matter   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
We employ a novel fluid–particle model to study the shearing behavior of granular soils under different saturation levels, ranging from the dry material via the capillary bridge regime to higher saturation levels with percolating clusters. The full complexity of possible liquid morphologies Scheel et al. (Nat Mater 7(3):189–193, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nmat2117) is taken into account, implying the formation of isolated arbitrary-sized liquid clusters with individual Laplace pressures that evolve by liquid exchange via films on the grain surface Melnikov et al. (Phys Rev E 92(022):206, 2015. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.022206). Liquid clusters can grow in size, shrink, merge and split, depending on local conditions, changes of accessible liquid and the pore space morphology determined by the granular phase. This phase is represented by a discrete particle model based on contact dynamics Brendel et al. (Contact dynamics for beginners. Wiley-VCH, Weinheim, 2005. doi: 10.1002/352760362X.ch14), where capillary forces exerted from a liquid phase add to the motion of spherical particles. We study the macroscopic response of the system due to an external compression force at various liquid contents with the help of triaxial shear tests. Additionally, the change in liquid cluster distributions during the compression due to the deformation of the pore space is evaluated close to the critical load.  相似文献   

8.
The echinoid fauna from the Miocene sedimentary succession cropping out south Wadi Tweirig, and Wadi Hommath, south Gebel Ataqa, NW Gulf of Suez, has been examined with the aim to known their stratigraphic and paleogeographic distribution. The Miocene succession includes two formations: Sadat Formation, unconformably overlying the middle/upper Eocene rocks at the base and Hommath Formation at the top. Twenty-eight echinoid species (8 regular and 20 irregular) belonging to 18 genera, 13 families, and 7 orders have been identified, systematically described, and illustrated in this work. Eleven species are recorded for the first time from Egypt: ten of these came from the Hommath Formation (Schizechinus cf. serresii Desor (1856), Schizechinus pentagonus Kier 1972, Clypeaster cf. martini des Moulins 1837, Scutella checchiae occidentalis Desio 1934, Scutella melitensis Airaghi 1902, Echinodiscus desori Duncan and Sladen 1883, Echinolampas cf. zeitensis Fourtau 1920, Schizaster lovisatoi Cotteau 1895, Agassizia (Agassizia) powersi Kier 1972, and Hemipatagus ocellatus Defrance (1827)), and one from the Sadat Formation (Clypeaster campanulatus Schlotheim (1820)). The identified fauna shows a strong affinity with the Mediterranean bio-province.  相似文献   

9.
Wang et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 171:62, 2016a) present data on composition of xenolith from Southern Tibet and conclude that ulrapotassic melts from the region formed by melting mantle, and complex interaction with a crustal component. In this discussion we demonstrate that numerous observations presented by Wang et al. (2016a) can be explained by partial melting of crust followed by interaction between that melt and the mantle. We show that this model can explain the variability of magmas in such suits without evoking occurrence of coincidental, unrelated events. Moreover we demonstrate that our model of a crustal origin of the proto-shoshonite melts is now supported by independent lines of evidence such as geochemistry of restites after high- and ultrahigh- pressure melting and melt inclusion studies.  相似文献   

10.
This paper presents a simulation of three components of near-field ground shaking recorded during the main shock at three stations of the September 16, 1978, Tabas (M w = 7.4), Iran, earthquake, close to the causative fault. A hybrid method composed of a discrete wavenumber method developed by Bouchon (Bouchon in Bull Seismol Soc Am 71:959–971, 1981; Cotton and Coutant in Geophys J Int 128:676–688, 1997) and a stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency proposed by Motazedian and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005), modified by Assatourians and Atkinson (Bull Seismol Soc Am 97:935–1949, 2007), is used for generating the seismograms at low (0.1–1.0 Hz) and high frequencies (1.0–20.0 Hz), respectively. The results are validated by comparing the simulated peak acceleration, peak velocity, peak displacement, Arias intensity, the integral of velocity squared, Fourier spectrum and acceleration response spectrum on a frequency-by-frequency basis, the shape of the normalized integrals of acceleration and velocity squared, and the cross-correlation with the observed time-series data. Each characteristic is compared on a scale from 0 to 10, with 10 being perfect agreement. Also, the results are validated by comparing the simulated ground motions with the modified Mercalli intensity observations reported by reconnaissance teams and showed reasonable agreement. The results of the present study imply that the damage distribution pattern of the 1978 Tabas earthquake can be explained by the source directivity effect.  相似文献   

11.
A reply essay is presented on the rebuttal article by Parise (Environ Earth Sci 75(23):1476, 2016) suggesting that qanat is not a hazard. It is presented as a refutation on the paper by Abbasnejad et al. (Environ Earth Sci 75:1306, 2016) in which the authors have explained the etiology, the impacts and remedies of a qanat hazard in Iranian urban areas. Since the majority of qanats in Iranian urban areas are abandoned, useless and threatening, according to definition and in comparison with similar features introduced as a hazard, they are considered as a hazard too. However, this does not mean, and Abbasnejad et al. (in Environ Earth Sci 75:1306, 2016) have not claimed, that all qanats are hazardous. In addition, the authors who have studied qanats in Iranian urban areas, before Abbasnejad et al. (in Environ Earth Sci 75:1306, 2016), have also considered qanats as a hazard.  相似文献   

12.
We present a new statistical framework to analyze the diffusion data for divalent cations (Fe, Mg, Mn, and Ca) in aluminosilicate garnet using published experimental data and an Arrhenius relationship that accounts for dependence on temperature, pressure, garnet unit-cell dimension, and oxygen fugacity. The regression is based on Bayesian statistics and is implemented by the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. All reported experimental uncertainties are incorporated, and the data are weighted by the precision of the experimental conditions. We also include a new term, the inter-experiment bias, to compensate for possible inconsistencies among experiments and to represent any experimental variability not explicitly presented in the Arrhenius relationship (e.g., water content, defect density). At high temperatures where most experiments were conducted, the diffusion coefficients calculated with the new parameters agree well with previous diffusion models (e.g., Chakraborty and Ganguly in Contrib Mineral Petrol, 111:74–86, 1992; Carlson in Am Mineral, 91:1–11, 2006). However, the down-temperature extrapolation leads to notable differences at lower temperatures for common petrological applications. For example, at 600 °C, the diffusion coefficients of Fe and Mn are one half-to-one order of magnitude faster and the diffusion coefficient of Ca is about one order of magnitude slower than calculated with parameters in Carlson (2006). Our statistical analysis also provides well-defined uncertainty bounds for timescale estimates based on garnet diffusion profiles. Application of the newly derived coefficients indicates that the timescale of the thermal peak of Barrovian metamorphism (Dalradian belt of Scotland) is about four to seven times longer than that estimated using previously published diffusion coefficients. The peak is still geologically brief, however—of the order of 106 years (0.75 Myr +0.70/?0.36 Myr; ±1σ). This brevity requires pulsed advective heat input, as provided by syn-orogenic mafic magmatism in these rocks.  相似文献   

13.
This study proposes a simplified 1-parameter SCS-CN model (M5) based on Mishra-Singh (2002) model and soil moisture accounting (SMA) procedure for surface runoff estimation and compares its performance with the existing SCS-CN method (SCS, 1956) (M1), Michel 1-P model (Water Resour Res 41:1-6, 2005) (M2), Sahu 1-P model (Hydrol Process 21:2872-2881, 2007) (M3), and Ajmal et al. model (J Hydrol 530:623-633, 2015) (M4) using large rainfall–runoff dataset of 48,763 events from123 USDA-ARS watersheds. The performance of models was evaluated using three statistical error indices such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), percentage bias (PBIAS), and rank and grading system (RGS). Based on the results obtained, the models can be ranked as follows: M5?>?M4?>?M3?>?M1?>?M2, i.e., model M5 outperformed all the remaining four models M1–M4 and hence is recommended for field applications.  相似文献   

14.
Earth Science community depends on the exploration, analysis and reprocessing of high volumes of data as well as the modeling and simulation of complex coupled systems on multiple scales. The main aim of this article is to introduce a new hydrological modeling service based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (Arnold et al. J American Water Resour Assoc 34(1), 73–89, 1998 ; Arnold and Fohrer Hydrol Process 19(3), 563–572, 2005) model using high efficiency, resource sharing and low cost cloud computing resources (Astsatryan et al. International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research 1(1), 1130–1133, 2014). Such a Desktop as a Service (DaaS) approach allowing users to work from anywhere, and gives centralized desktop management and great performance. Within the Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) and cloud platform, the DaaS service gives secure access to the model and a centralized data storage to get a SWAT model input. The article illustrates the analyses of the implementation of the SWAT model for the Sotk watershed of Lake Sevan in Armenia (Sargsyan 2007).  相似文献   

15.
Impacts of climate change have been observed in natural systems and are expected to intensify in future decades (IPCC in Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPC, Geneva, 2014). Governments are seeking to establish adaptive measures for minimizing the effects of climate change on vulnerable citizen groups, economic sectors and critical infrastructure (Adger et al. in Global Environ Change 15(2):77–86, 2005. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005; Smit and Wandel in Global Environ Change 16(3):282–292, 2006. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008). Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to changing conditions due to rising sea levels and storm event intensification that produce new flood exposures (Richards and Daigle in Government of Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Nova Scotia, 2011 http://www.gov.pe.ca/photos/original/ccscenarios.pdf). However, communities oftentimes lack access to locally-relevant climate change information that can support adaptation planning. This research introduces the use of a Geoweb tool for supporting local climate change adaptation efforts in coastal Canadian communities. The Geoweb tool (called “AdaptNS”) is a web-based visualization tool that displays interactive flood exposure maps generated using local climate change projections of sea level rise and storm surge impacts between the years 2000 and 2100. AdaptNS includes participatory features that allow users to identify and share specific locations to protect against present and future coastal flood events. By soliciting feedback from community members, AdaptNS is shown to support local adaptation through the provision of flood exposure visuals, as a platform for identifying adaptation priorities, and as an avenue to communicate local risks to external entities that could facilitate local adaptation initiatives (e.g. upper levels of government). Future Geoweb research directions include improving the visualization of climate change projection uncertainties, the expansion of informational and participation capabilities, and understanding the potential for long-term adoption of Geoweb tools in adaptation decision-making.  相似文献   

16.
Stepanov et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol, 2017) question our conclusion that the UPVs in southern Tibet were derived by partial melting of an old, metasomatized subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) of the subducted Indian plate. Instead, they propose that these ultrapotassic volcanic rocks (UPVs) are shoshonitic and were generated in two steps: direct melting of crustal rocks first, and then the melts interacted with mantle peridotite. However, the trace element, isotopic, thermal, structural, and seismic evidence is consistent with the xenolith evidence (Wang et al in Contrib Mineral Petrol 172:62, 2016) for hybridisation of ascending Indian subcontinental lithospheric mantle-derived UPV magmas with the deep, isotopically unevolved, Tibetan crust. This necessitates a model whereby partial melting of subducting Indian SCLM generates the UPV suite of southern Tibet.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, we develop a multiscale model reduction technique that describes shale gas transport in fractured media. Due to the pore-scale heterogeneities and processes, we use upscaled models to describe the matrix. We follow our previous work (Akkutlu et al. Transp. Porous Media 107(1), 235–260, 2015), where we derived an upscaled model in the form of generalized nonlinear diffusion model to describe the effects of kerogen. To model the interaction between the matrix and the fractures, we use Generalized Multiscale Finite Element Method (Efendiev et al. J. Comput. Phys. 251, 116–135, 2013, 2015). In this approach, the matrix and the fracture interaction is modeled via local multiscale basis functions. In Efendiev et al. (2015), we developed the GMsFEM and applied for linear flows with horizontal or vertical fracture orientations aligned with a Cartesian fine grid. The approach in Efendiev et al. (2015) does not allow handling arbitrary fracture distributions. In this paper, we (1) consider arbitrary fracture distributions on an unstructured grid; (2) develop GMsFEM for nonlinear flows; and (3) develop online basis function strategies to adaptively improve the convergence. The number of multiscale basis functions in each coarse region represents the degrees of freedom needed to achieve a certain error threshold. Our approach is adaptive in a sense that the multiscale basis functions can be added in the regions of interest. Numerical results for two-dimensional problem are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of proposed approach.  相似文献   

18.
Extensive laboratory model tests have been carried out on a strip footing resting over dry sand bed subjected to eccentrically inclined load to determine the ultimate bearing capacity (Patra et al. in Int J Geotech Eng 6(3):343–352, 2012a.  https://doi.org/10.3328/IJGE.2012.06.03.343-352, Int J Geotech Eng 6(4):507–514, b.  https://doi.org/10.3328/IJGE.2012.06.04.507-514). Similarly, lower bound calculations based on finite element method were performed to compute the bearing capacity of a strip footing subjected to an eccentric and inclined load lying over a cohesionless soil with varying embedment depth and relative density (Krabbenhoft et al. in Int J Geomech ASCE, 2014.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0000332). The load may be applied in two ways namely, towards the center line and away from the center line of the footing. Based on the results (both experimental and numerical analyses), a neural network model is developed to predict the reduction factor that will be used in computing the ultimate bearing capacity of an eccentrically inclined loaded strip footing. This reduction factor (RF) is the ratio of the ultimate bearing capacity of the footing subjected to an eccentrically inclined load to the ultimate bearing capacity of the footing subjected to a centric vertical load. A thorough sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the parameters affecting the reduction factor. Based on the weights of the developed neural network model, a neural interpretation diagram is developed to find out whether the input parameters have direct or inverse effect on the output. A prediction model equation is framed with the trained weights of the neural network as the model parameters. The predictions from ANN, and those from other approaches, are compared with the results computed from both experimentation and FEM analyses. The ANN model results are found to be more accurate and well matched with other results.  相似文献   

19.
We discuss the experimental results of silicon and oxygen self-diffusion coefficients in forsterite and iron-bearing olivine from the perspective of defect chemistry. Silicon diffusion is dominated by VO ··-associated VSi″″, whereas oxygen diffusion is dominated by hopping of VO ·· under anhydrous conditions, and by (OH)O · under hydrous conditions. By considering the charge neutrality condition of [(OH)O ·] = 2[VMe″] in hydrous forsterite and iron-bearing olivine, we get D Si ∝ (\(C_{{{\text{H}}_{2} {\text{O}}}}\))1/3 and D O ∝ (\(C_{{{\text{H}}_{2} {\text{O}}}}\))0, which explains the experimental results of water effects on oxygen and silicon self-diffusion rates (Fei et al. in Nature 498:213–215, 2013; J Geophys Res 119:7598–7606, 2014). The \(C_{{{\text{H}}_{2} {\text{O}}}}\) dependence of creep rate in the Earth’s mantle should be close to that given by Si and O self-diffusion coefficients obtained under water unsaturated conditions.  相似文献   

20.
In a fluid system in which two immiscible layers are separated by a sharp free interface, there can be strong coupling between large amplitude nonlinear waves on the interface and waves in the overlying free surface. We study the regime where long waves propagate in the interfacial mode, which are coupled to a modulational regime for the free-surface mode. This is a system of Boussinesq equations for the internal mode, coupled to the linear Schrödinger equations for wave propagation on the free surface, and respectively a version of the Korteweg-de Vries equation for the internal mode in case of unidirectional motions. The perturbation methods are based on the Hamiltonian formulation for the original system of irrotational Euler’s equations, as described in (Benjamin and Bridges, J Fluid Mech 333:301–325, 1997, Craig et al., Comm Pure Appl Math 58:1587–1641, 2005a, Zakharov, J Appl Mech Tech Phys 9:190–194, 1968), using the perturbation theory for the modulational regime that is given in (Craig et al. to appear). We focus in particular on the situation in which the internal wave gives rise to localized bound states for the Schrödinger equation, which are interpreted as surface wave patterns that give a characteristic signature of the presence of an internal wave soliton. We also comment on the discrepancies between the free interface-free surface cases and the approximation of the upper boundary condition by a rigid lid.  相似文献   

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