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1.
Earthquake precursors: spatial-temporal gravity changes before the great earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan area 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Using multiple-scale mobile gravity data in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Province Ms6.5 earthquake and the 2014 Kangding Ms6.3, 2013 Lushan Ms7.0, and 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. (1) Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, gravity anomalies occur in a large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress, as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes. (2) Continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields, as well as greater gravity changes with larger time scales, can be regarded as medium-range precursors of large earthquakes. The subsequent large earthquakes always occur in the area where the gravity changes greatly. (3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are very useful in determining the epicenter of coming large earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful to determine the general areas of coming large earthquakes. However, the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore, denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasts of the epicenters of large earthquakes. (4) Using gravity changes from mobile observation data, we made medium-range forecasts of the Kangding, Ludian, Lushan, and Wenchuan earthquakes, with especially successful forecasts of the location of their epicenters. Based on the above discussions, we emphasize that medium-/long-term potential for large earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Thus, the monitoring should be strengthened. 相似文献
2.
Shmuel M. Rubinstein Itay Barel Ze’ev Reches Oleg M. Braun Michael Urbakh Jay Fineberg 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(12):2151-2166
Faults are intrinsically heterogeneous with common occurrences of jogs, edges and steps. We therefore explore experimentally
and theoretically how fault edges may affect earthquake and slip dynamics. In the presented experiments and accompanying theoretical
model, shear loads are applied to the edge of one of two flat blocks in frictional contact that form a fault analog. We show
that slip occurs via a sequence of rapid rupture events that initiate from the loading edge and are arrested after propagating
a finite distance. Each successive event extends the slip size, transfers the applied shear across the block, and causes progressively
larger changes of the contact area along the contact surface. Resulting from this sequence of events, a hard asperity is dynamically
formed near the loaded edge. The contact area beyond this asperity is largely reduced. These sequences of rapid events culminate
in slow slip events that precede a major, unarrested slip event along the entire contact surface. We suggest that the 1998
M5.0 Sendai and 1995 off-Etorofu earthquake sequences may correspond to this scenario. Our work demonstrates, qualitatively,
how the simplest deviation from uniform shear loading may significantly affect both earthquake nucleation processes and how
fault complexity develops. 相似文献
3.
L. J. Ruff 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1999,154(3-4):409-431
—Stress drop is a fundamental parameter of earthquakes, but it is difficult to obtain reliable stress drop estimates for most earthquakes. Static stress drop estimates require knowledge of the seismic moment and fault area. Dynamic stress drop estimates are based entirely upon the observed source time functions. Based on analytical formulas that I derive for the crack and slip-pulse rupture models, the amplitude and time of the initial peak in source time functions can be inverted for dynamic stress drop. For multiple event earthquakes, this method only gives the dynamic stress drop of the first event. The Michigan STF catalog provides a uniform data base for all large earthquakes that have occurred in the past four years. Dynamic stress drops are calculated for the nearly 200 events in this catalog, and the resultant estimates scatter between 0.1 and 100 MPa. There is some coherent tectonic signal within this scatter. In the Sanriku (Japan) and Mexico subduction zones, underthrusting earthquakes that occur at the up-dip and down-dip edges of the seismogenic zone have correspondingly low and high values of stress drop. A speculative picture of the stress state of subduction zones emerges from these results. A previous study found that the absolute value of shear stress linearly increases down the seismogenic interface to a value of about 50 MPa at the down-dip edge. In this study, the dynamic stress drop of earthquakes at the up-dip edge is about 0.2 MPa, while large earthquakes at the down-dip edge of the seismogenic plate interface have dynamic stress drops of up to 5 MPa. These results imply that (1) large earthquakes only reduce the shear stress on the plate interface by a small fraction of the absolute level; and thus (2) most of the earthquake energy is partitioned into friction at the plate interface. 相似文献
4.
新疆于田地区位于青藏高原与塔里木盆地相交会的地方, 强震频发。 2008年以来, 该地区陆续发生的4次M6以上强震都位于阿尔金断裂带南分支的龙木错—郭扎错断裂带附近。 这些地震的发生为研究于田地区中强震活动的空间分布及其之间的相互作用及提供了很好的实例。 首先, 利用小震目录对区域地震活动进行分析, 给出了地震活动性参数b值的空间分布。 然后, 采用分层黏弹性模型研究了区域4次中强地震所造成的区域应力转移。 我们发现, 于田地区近年来强震活动的时空分布特征可能与区域地壳应力水平的差异有关。 康西瓦断裂带上历史强震活跃, 但是现今地震较平静, b值较高; 而龙木错—郭扎错断裂带附近的b值相对较低, 现今强震活动频繁。 于田地区4次中强震造成的应力转移则比较复杂, 2012年地震受到2008年地震的卸载作用, 而2014年和2020年2次地震的发生均受到前序地震的促进作用。 综合区域地震活动和强震之间应力转移的分析, 可以认为阿尔金断裂带南支的龙木错—郭扎错断裂带上, 应力水平仍然相对较高, 未来的地震危险性仍然较大。 相似文献
5.
Evolving Towards a Critical Point: A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/Energy Release Prior to Large and Great Earthquakes 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
—There is growing evidence that some proportion of large and great earthquakes are preceded by a period of accelerating seismic activity of moderate-sized earthquakes. These moderate earthquakes occur during the years to decades prior to the occurrence of the large or great event and over a region larger than its rupture zone. The size of the region in which these moderate earthquakes occur scales with the size of the ensuing mainshock, at least in continental regions. A number of numerical simulation studies of faults and fault systems also exhibit similar behavior. The combined observational and simulation evidence suggests that the period of increased moment release in moderate earthquakes signals the establishment of long wavelength correlations in the regional stress field. The central hypothesis in the critical point model for regional seismicity is that it is only during these time periods that a region of the earth’s crust is truly in or near a "self-organized critical" (SOC) state, such that small earthquakes are capable of cascading into much larger events. The occurrence of a large or great earthquake appears to dissipate a sufficient proportion of the accumulated regional strain to destroy these long wavelength stress correlations and bring the region out of a SOC state. Continued tectonic strain accumulation and stress transfer during smaller earthquakes eventually re-establishes the long wavelength stress correlations that allow for the occurrence of larger events. These increases in activity occur over longer periods and larger regions than quiescence, which is usually observed within the rupture zone of a coming large event. The two phenomena appear to have different physical bases and are not incompatible with one another. 相似文献
6.
Gregory C. McLaskey Brian D. Kilgore David A. Lockner Nicholas M. Beeler 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(10):2601-2615
We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes. 相似文献
7.
利用双差定位法对江苏地区2009-2015年地震记录进行重新定位。结果显示,重新定位后的结果比原有定位精度有了较好的改进,地震序列在空间分布上更加集中;从平面分布上看,重新定位后的地震更加集中于断裂带附近,较多地震呈丛集状出现;从震源深度分布看,研究区内重新定位后地震震源深度有明显收敛,大多集中在5~20km,表明研究区孕震层基本位于地壳的中上部。同时通过对江苏省不同时期发生的几个震群地震构造活动进行分析(分析各个地震序列的走向、是否产生新的断裂带、与原有断裂带走向是否一致等问题),认为其具有十分重要的意义。 相似文献
8.
以南北地震带北部的青藏高原东北边缘与华北构造区过渡部位为例,通过建立地震构造模型,计算静态库仑破裂应力改变量（ΔCFS）,研究了该区1561~1920年360年间5次M≥7级地震之间的触发过程.结果表明,在1561年罗山东麓71/4级地震之后,下一次地震无一例外地发生在前面地震产生的应力触发区（ΔCFS>0）.在4条被触发的发震断裂中,有3条发震断裂的平均ΔCFS>0.2×105 Pa,最大可达0.62×105 Pa,超出目前普遍认为触发应力阀值（0.1×105 Pa）.根据断裂库仑破裂应力变化量（ΔCFS）和构造应力累计率（δτ）,计算获得了下一次地震发生的提前量（ΔT）,地震活动提前量最大可以达到160a.在一条重要活动构造带或地区上,一次地震发生对下一次地震的触发缩短了地震重复发生所需要的累积时间,使得地震可以提前发生,这一方面使得某一特定的发震断裂在时间尺度表现出准周期性,另一方面使得空间上不同发震断裂的地震活动表现出丛集发生的现象.此项研究有助于认识断裂间相互作用特点、揭示地震丛集发生规律以及预测未来地震危险区. 相似文献
9.
伽师序列中小地震震源机制分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
采用点源位错模型,层状介质速度结构,通过计算理论地震图,与观测的地震垂直向记录的直达P、S波最大振幅拟合,反演震源机制的方法。系统查阅了万余张地震记录图件,得到可信的小地震震源机制共计554个。有震源机制的地震完全覆盖了序列的震区范围,时间上也分布于序列的各个阶段,因此认为这些小地震对于地震序列具有一定的代表性。计算2个震源机制的2个P轴在三维空间中的夹角和2个T轴之间的夹角,再以2个夹角之和作为距离,采用系统聚类的方法对大量地震震源机制解进行分类。取和主体破裂方向(NE)一致的两类正断层地震,求其占全部类型的地震数目的比例,用来刻画应力场的变动情况。对照伽师序列的6级强震,两类正断层地震出现3次显著的增加。3组强震都在其后发生,这就给出了确切的前兆信息。小地震震源机制显示出的变化,表明它们对于强震孕育发生非常灵敏。文章最后提出伽师强震序列的块体旋转成因模型。 相似文献
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Stress Changes Modelled for the Sequence of Strong Earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone Since 1706 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The South Iceland seismic zone is, roughly speaking, situated between two sections of the mid-Atlantic ridge, i.e., the Reykjanes Ridge southwest of Iceland and the Eastern Volcanic Zone on the island. It is a transform zone, where earthquakes are expected to occur on E-W-trending left-lateral shear faults, equivalent to conjugate, N-S-oriented right-lateral, rupture planes. In fact, earthquakes take place on en-échelon N-S-oriented faults, which is indicated by the distribution of main shock intensities, aftershocks as well as by surface fault traces. The stress field continuously generated in the fault zone by opening of the adjacent ridges is computed and superimposed on the stress field changes induced by a series of 13 earthquakes (M 6) between 1706 and 2000. The level of the pre-seismic stress field is analysed as well as the size of the area under high stress. Finally, the post-seismic stress field of June 2000 is analysed, to see where high stresses might have accumulated. The modelling indicates that the rupture planes located on separated parallel N-S-striking zones are dense enough to lead to an area-wide stress release by the series of events. The obtained pre-seismic stress level for most events is high and stable with the exception of situations when several strong shocks occur over a time span of several days, i.e., display typical main shock-aftershock patterns. The size of areas under high stress aside from of the rupture plane, i.e., where no event occurs at the specific time, is of medium to small size. 相似文献
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小微震事件的震源机制是区域应力场及诸多地球动力学研究的基础资料。陕西地区为多个地震带的交汇区,近些年积累了丰富的小微震波形资料。运用新近发展的适用于求解小微震震源机制的广义极性振幅技术(GPAT),结合陕西2015地壳速度模型,求解陕西测震台网2011年4月至2015年12月间记录的121次ML1.5~3.5事件的震源机制。反演结果表明:(1)以上事件的震源机制大部分为走滑及正断类型,其比例占64.5%;逆断型机制占22.3%。(2)反演震源机制得到的震源深度与定位深度具有良好的一致性;矩震级与近震震级间存在差别,且这种差别随事件的变小而增大。(3)对比渭河断陷带相关研究成果,验证了该区域震源机制以正断型为主,具有拉张应力状态。 相似文献
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2008年5月12日四川汶川发生MS8.0地震发生之后, 先后于2013年4月20日和2014年11月22日分别在汶川MS8.0地震震中西南约80 km的芦山县和约178 km的康定县发生了MS7.0和MS6.3地震。 芦山地震位于龙门山前主边界处, 康定地震位于鲜水河断裂带上。 芦山地震发生前有几位作者先后计算了汶川MS8.0地震引起的库仑破裂应力, 分析了其对周围断层的影响。 本文对这些研究结果进行了简要回顾, 并根据芦山地震和康定地震的实际发震断层面参数, 计算了汶川MS8.0地震在芦山地震和康定地震震源深度处的水平面上以及其发震断层面上产生的库仑破裂应力, 还给出了其震中处库仑破裂应力随深度的变化。 结果表明, 汶川MS8.0地震发生使芦山地震震源断层面上有利于其错动发震的应力大面积增加而使康定地震震源断层面上有利于其错动发震的应力大面积减小。 在芦山地震初始破裂点处引起的库仑破裂应力达0.245 MPa, 在康定地震初始破裂点处引起的库仑破裂应力为-0.00063 MPa。 因此, 汶川MS8.0地震的发生对芦山地震具有明显的促进作用, 而对康定地震的作用不明显。 在目标断层面参数已知的情况下, 根据库仑破裂应力在目标断层面上的分布, 可能为未来地震发生的地点提供线索, 进而对地震发生的危险性进行预测。 若一次地震的发生使目标断层面上有利于其错动发震的应力大面积显著增加, 这种情况下库仑破裂应力对未来地震具有预测意义。 相似文献
16.
利用广东新丰江锡场2012和2013年2次MS4.8地震震中附近的2009年1月至2015年6月精定位小震资料,依据小震丛集发生在大震断层面及附近的原则,采用模拟退火算法和高斯-牛顿算法相结合的方法,反演得到了锡场附近2条相交断层的详细参数及地理分布。NEE向断层F1的走向为78.5°,倾角为87.7°,长度约8.2km,以右旋走滑错动为主;NW向断层F2的走向为137.3°,倾角为87.9°,长度约5.9km,以左旋走滑错动为主。用断层附近ML3以上地震的震源机制解证明反演结果是可靠的,并由2次4.8级地震的震源机制解判断出各自的发震断层。 相似文献
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由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性 总被引：38，自引：0，他引：38
根据最近28年的区域台网地震资料,利用b值空间分布及断裂带分段的多地震活动参数值的组合方法,结合历史强震背景,分析了沿川北龙门山-岷山断裂带不同断裂段的现今活动习性,并初步判别出了潜在的强震危险段落。研究结果表明:龙门山断裂带中-南段存在6个具有不同现今活动习性的段落,其中,绵竹-茂县段处于相对高应力背景下的频繁中-小震活动状态,被认为是龙门山断裂带上未来最可能发生强震的地段;江油-平武段处于相对高应力背景下的稀疏中-小震活动状态,未来有可能发生中强地震。而岷山断裂带中的岷江断裂段和虎牙断裂段,以及叠溪隐伏逆断层地区均具有相对偏低的应力水平,可能与其不久前分别发生过大地震和强震有关,未来不太长的时期内复发大地震的可能性较小。 相似文献
19.
S. G. Abaimov D. L. Turcotte R. Shcherbakov J. B. Rundle G. Yakovlev C. Goltz W. I. Newman 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(3-4):777-795
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere. 相似文献
20.
加卸载响应比是一种中短期地震预测方法.按照该方法,通常在大地震发生之前加卸载响应比时间序列会出现明显的异常高值.早先的研究发现,震前临界区域的选择对加卸载响应比的计算有很大影响.我们发展了一种使用震前应力积累区域取代传统圆形区域计算加卸载响应比的算法,提高了加卸载响应比的地震预测能力,其震前库仑应力场分布采用地震断层位错模型将同震滑移量反向滑移的方法计算.美国南加州近20年来发生的4次M6.5地震以及2008年中国汶川MS8.0地震的研究事实表明,使用库仑应力算法得到的加卸载响应比时间序列,前兆变化相对于圆形区域算法更为明显,且对目标地震的位置、震级预测更为明确.库仑应力算法的这一独特性质,使我们可以针对不同地区的活动构造特征对未来地震发生的地点和大小提供信息和约束. 相似文献