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1.
The record of felt earthquakes around Naples Bay in southern Italy is probably complete since the mid-15th century. According to this record, intense earthquake swarms originating beneath Campi Flegrei, an explosive caldera located along the north coast of Naples Bay, have occurred only twice: (1) before the only historical eruption in Campi Flegrei in 1538; and (2) from mid-1983 to December 1984. Earthquake activity during the earlier period, which began at least a few years, and possibly as many as 30 years, before the 1538 eruption, damaged many buildings in the city of Pozzuoli, located near the center of Campi Flegrei. Minor seismic activity, which consisted of only a few felt earthquakes, occurred from 1970 to 1971. The second period of intense earthquake swarms lasted from mid-1983 to 1984, again damaging many buildings in Pozzuoli. Two periods of uplift along the shoreline within Campi Flegrei have also been noted since the mid-15th century: (1) during the few decades before the 1538 eruption; and (2) as two distinct episodes since 1968. Uplift of a few meters probably occurred a few decades before the 1538 eruption; uplift of as much as 3.0 m has occurred in Pozzuoli since 1968.These similarities strongly suggest that, for the first time in 440 years, the same process that caused intense local earthquake swarms and uplift in the early 1500's and led to an eruption in 1538, has again occurred beneath Campi Flegrei. Though no major seismicity or uplift has occurred since December 1984, because of the large amount of extensional strain accumulated during the past two decades, if a third episode of seismicity and rapid uplift occurs, it may lead to an eruption within several months after the resumption of activity.  相似文献   

2.
Geodetic observations at Campi Flegrei caldera were initiated in 1905. Historical observations and the few measurements made before 1970 suggested a deflationary trend. Since 1969, the ground started to inflate during two major uplift episodes in 1969–72 and 1982–1985. We collected and reanalyzed all available punctual observations of vertical ground displacement taken in the period 1905–2009 with special attention to the period before 1969, to reconstruct in greater detail the deformation history of the caldera. We make use of the many photographs of the sea level in a roman ruin (the Serapeum Market) taken during the period between 1905 and 1969 to infer with more accuracy its relative height with respect to the sea level. We identify a previously disregarded major episode of ground uplift occurred between 1950 and 1952 with a maximum uplift of about 73 cm. This finding suggests that Campi Flegrei is currently experiencing a prolonged period of unrest longer than previously thought. The higher seismicity associated with the later episodes of unrest suggests that the volcano has approached an instability threshold, which may eventually result in a volcanic eruption.  相似文献   

3.
The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.  相似文献   

4.
We report laboratory measurements of P- and S-wave velocities on samples of tuff from Campi Flegrei (Italy), and a new tomographic velocity map of the Campi Flegrei caldera. Laboratory measurements were made in a hydrostatic pressure vessel during both increasing and decreasing effective pressure cycles. Selected samples were also thermally stressed at temperatures up to 600°C to induce thermal crack damage. Acoustic emission output was recorded throughout each thermal stressing experiment, and velocities were measured after thermal stressing. Laboratory P- and S-wave velocities are initially low for the tuff, which has an initial porosity of ~45%, but both increase by between 25 and 50% over the effective pressure range of 5 to 80 MPa, corresponding to a decrease of porosity of ~70%. Marked velocity hysteresis, due to inelastic damage processes, is also observed in samples subjected to a pressurization-depressurization cycle. Tomographic seismic velocity distributions obtained from field recordings are in general agreement with the laboratory measurements. Integration of the laboratory ultrasonic and seismic tomography data indicates that the tuffs of the Campi Flegrei caldera can be water or gas saturated, and shows that inelastic pore collapse and cracking produced by mechanical and thermal stress can significantly change the velocity properties of Campi Flegrei tuffs at depth. These changes need to be taken into account in accurately interpreting the crustal structure from tomographic data.  相似文献   

5.
the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT) (12 ka BP) is considered to be the product of a single eruption. Two different members (A and B) have been identified and can be correlated around the whole of Campi Flegrei. Member A is made up of at least 6 fall units including both ash and lapilli horizons. The basal stratified ash unit (A1) is interpreted to be a phreatoplinian fall deposit, since it shows a widespread dispersal (>1000 km2) and a constant thickness over considerable topography. The absence of many lapilli fall units in proximal and medial areas testifies to the erosive power of the intervening pyroclastic surges. The overlying member B was formed by many pyroclastic flows, radially distributed around Campi Flegrei, that varied widely in their eruptive and emplacement mechanisms. In some of the most proximal exposures coarse scoria and lithic-rich deposits, sometimes welded, have been identified at the base of member B. Isopach and isopleth maps of fall-units, combined with the distribution of the coarse proximal facies, indicate that the eruptive vent was located in the NE area of Campi Flegrei. It is considered that the NYT eruption produced collapse of a caldera approximately 10 km diameter within Campi Flegrei. The caldera rim, located by geological and borehole evidence, is now largely buried by the products of more recent eruptions. Initiation of caldera collapse may have been contemporaneous with the start of the second phase (member B). It is suggested that there was a single vent throughout the eruption rather than the development of multiple or ring vents. Chemical data indicate that different levels of a zoned trachyte-phonolite magma chamber were tapped during the eruption. The minimum volume of the NYT is calculated to be about 50 km3 (DRE), of which 35 km3 (70%) occurs within the caldera.  相似文献   

6.
The central Campanian Plain is dominated by the structural depression of Acerra whose origin is tectonic, but may have been enlarged and further depressed after the eruption of the Campanian Ignimbrite (42-25 ka). The deposits of the Campanian Ignimbrite are possibly the results of multiple eruptions with huge pyroclastic deposits that covered all the Campanian Plain.The more recent activity of Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Procida occurred on the borders of Acerra depression and resulted from a reactivation of regional faults after the Campanian Ignimbrite cycle. The activity of Vesuvius produced the building of a stratovolcano mostly by effusive and plinian explosive eruptions. The Campi Flegrei area, on the contrary, was dominated by the eruption of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff at 12 ka that produced a caldera collapse of the Gulf of Pozzuoli. The caldera formation controlled the emplacement of the recent activity of Campi Flegrei and the new volcanoes were formed only within the caldera or along its rim.  相似文献   

7.
The civil defense of Italy and the European community have planned to reformulate the volcanic risk in several volcanic areas of Italy, among which Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, by taking into account the possible occurrence of damaging pre- or syn-eruptive seismic events. Necessary to achieve this goal is the detailed knowledge of the local attenuation–distance relations. In the present note, we make a survey of the estimates of seismic quality factor (the inverse is proportional to the attenuation coefficient with distance) reported in literature for the area of Campi Flegrei where many, but sometimes contradictory results have been published on this topic. We try to review these results in order to give indications for their correct use when calculating the attenuation laws for this area.  相似文献   

8.
Digital marine seismic reflection data acquired in 1973 in the Bay of Pozzuoli, and recently reprocessed, were used to study the volcanological evolution of the marine sector of Campi Flegrei Caldera during the last 37 ka. In order to gain more information, interpretation also involved estimation of the "pseudo-velocity" and the "pseudo-density" from the resistivity logs of two onshore deep exploration wells. The main results are: (1) discovery of ancient pre-18 ka and post-37 ka submarine and mainly effusive volcanic activity, along coeval emission centers located at the edges of Campi Flegrei Caldera; (2) confirmation that the caldera collapse in the marine sector of Campi Flegrei seems strongly controlled by regional NE–SW and NW–SE structural discontinuities; (3) the finding of at least two episodes of collapse in the bay; and (4) identification of a post-18 ka volcanic deflation phase that has caused about 150–200 m of subsidence in the central sector of the Bay of Pozzuoli in the last 18 ka.Editorial responsibilty: T. Druitt  相似文献   

9.
In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982–1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.  相似文献   

10.
We present here a consistent model, which explains the mechanisms of unrest phenomena at Campi Flegrei (Italy), both at short-term (years) and at secular scales. The model consists basically of two effects: the first one is related to the elastic response of the shallow crust to increasing pressure within a shallow magma chamber; the second involves the fluid-dynamics of shallow aquifers in response to increasing pressure and/or temperature at depth. The most important roles in the proposed model are played by the effect of lateral stress–strain discontinuities marking the inner caldera borders and by the response of the geothermal system to the increase of pressure and/or temperature coming from the magma chamber. The model takes into account most results of recent research, and it is able to explain in a unitary way most of geophysical observations recently collected at Campi Flegrei. Some new results, presented in this paper, explain the mechanism of generation of seismicity in terms of Coulomb stress changes, and the difference between secular and short-term deformations, in terms of the non linear effect of the bordering discontinuities. The coupled effects of magma chamber stresses with the dynamics of shallow fluids provide results for a semi-quantitative interpretation of observed ground deformation, seismicity and of their time evolution. The model has very important implications for the hazard assessment during unrest phenomena. It represents, for the part involving the fluid-dynamical response, the ideal continuation of the basic, fundamental models and intuitions of Oliveri del Castillo and coworkers (Oliveri del Castillo, A., Quagliariello, M.T., 1969. Sulla genesi del bradisimo flegro. Atti Associazione Geofisica Italiana, 18th Congress, Napoli, pp. 557–594; Casterano, L., Oliveri del Castillo, A., Quagliariello, M.T., 1976. Hydromdynamics and geodynamics in the Phlegraean Fields area of Italy. Nature, 264, 161–154).  相似文献   

11.
The Campi Flegrei (Campanian Region, Italy) experienced two cataclysmic caldera-forming eruptions which produced the Campanian Ignimbrite (39 ka, CI) and the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (15 ka, NYT). We studied the minor eruptions before both these large events to understand magma chamber evolution leading towards such catastrophic eruptions. Major, trace element, and Sr and Nd isotope compositions of pre-Campanian Ignimbrite and pre-Neapolitan Yellow Tuff products define distinct geochemical groups, which are here interpreted as distinct magma batches. These batches do not show any transitional trend towards the CI and NYT eruptions. The CI and NYT systems are decoupled geochemically and isotopically. At least one of the pre-CI and one of the pre-NYT erupted magma batches qualifies as mixing endmembers for the large CI and NYT eruptions, and thus, must have been stored in reservoirs for some time to remain available for the CI and NYT eruptions. The least evolved, isotopically distinct magma compositions that are typical of the last phases of the NYT and CI eruptions did not occur before caldera-forming events. Based on the new data, we propose the following scenario: Multiple magma chambers with distinct compositions existed below the Campi Flegrei before the CI and NYT eruptions and remained generally separated for some time unless new magma was recharged. In each case, one of the residing magma reservoirs was recharged by a new large-volume magma input of intermediate composition from a deeper differentiating magma reservoir. This may have triggered the coalescence of the previously separated reservoirs into one large chamber which fed the cataclysmic caldera-forming eruption. Large magma chambers in the Campi Flegrei may therefore be ephemeral features, interrupted by periods of evolution in individual, separated magma reservoirs.  相似文献   

12.
A method is presented to analyze the effect of stress-strain discontinuities on the ground deformations generated by a pressure source. This is meant to simulate the effects due to caldera structures, likely to present fractured zones at the borders of the collapsed area. A method originally developed by Crouch (1976) to solve plane-strain problems has been used to simulate deformation curves for several source and discontinuity geometries. The main result is that the location of the discontinuities controls the extension of the deformed zone, and always reduces it with respect to a continuous medium. With respect to a homogeneous medium the presence of lateral discontinuities also acts towards lowering the overpressure required to produce a given amount of deformation. These results indicate that, when analyzing ground deformations in calderas, the use of classical methods involving continuous media should be avoided, or at least taken with caution. These methods, in fact, assume that the extension of the deformed zone is only linked to the source depth.Some examples of ground deformations in active calderas have been analyzed in the framework of the results obtained from theoretical modeling. Four calderas recently affected by ground deformations have been considered: Rabaul (New Guinea), Campi Flegrei (Italy), Long Valley and Yellowstone (U.S.A.). The effects of collapsed structures on the deformation field are possibly evidenced for all the four calderas. At Rabaul and Campi Flegrei, the fracture systems mainly affecting the ground deformations probably represent younger, innermost collapses and are well evidenced by seismicity studies. Ground deformations are here concentrated in an area much smaller than the one enclosed by geologically visible caldera rims. In particular, at Rabaul, the effect of the innermost collapse can explain the high concentration of the uplift in the period 1971–1985, previously modeled by a very shallow source (1–3 km) in terms of overpressure in the main magma chamber, probably located at 4–5 km of depth.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.  相似文献   

14.
The Campi Flegrei hosts numerous monogenetic vents inferred to be younger than the 15 ka Neapolitan Yellow Tuff. Sanidine crystals from the three young Campi Flegrei vents of Fondi di Baia, Bacoli and Nisida were dated using 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. These vents, together with several other young edifices, occur roughly along the inner border of the Campi Flegrei caldera, suggesting that the volcanic conduits are controlled by caldera-bounding faults. Plateau ages of ∼9.6 ka (Fondi di Baia), ∼8.6 ka (Bacoli) and ∼3.9 ka (Nisida) indicate eruptive activity during intervals previously interpreted as quiescent. A critical revision, involving calendar age correction of literature 14C data and available 40Ar/39Ar age data, is presented. A new reference chronostratigraphic framework for Holocene Phlegrean activity, which significantly differs from the previously adopted ones, is proposed. This has important implications for understanding the Campi Flegrei eruptive history and, ultimately, for the evaluation of related volcanic risk and hazard, for which the inferred history of its recent activity is generally taken into account.  相似文献   

15.
Ground motion produced by low magnitude earthquakes can be used to predict peak values in high seismic risk areas where large earthquakes data are not available. In the present work 20 local earthquakes (MD∈[?0.3, 2.2]) occurred in the Campi Flegrei caldera during the last decade were analyzed. We followed this strategy: empirical relations were used to calibrate synthetic modeling, accounting for the source features and wave propagation effects. Once the source and path parameters of ground motion simulation were obtained from the reference data set, we extrapolated scenarios for stronger earthquakes for which real data are not available. The procedure is structured in two steps: (1) evaluation of ground motion prediction equation for Campi Flegrei area and assessment of input parameters for the source, path and site effects in order to use the finite fault stochastic approach (EXSIM code); (2) simulation of two moderate-to-large earthquake scenarios for which only historical data or partial information are available (Mw4.2 and Mw5.4). The results show that the investigated area is characterized by high attenuation of peak amplitude and not negligible site effects. The stochastic approach has revealed a good tool to calibrate source, path and site parameters on small earthquakes and to generate large earthquake scenario. The investigated magnitude range represents a lower limit to apply the stochastic method as a calibration tool, due to the small size of involved faults (fault length around 200/300 m).  相似文献   

16.
Volcanological analysis of the 10 000 yr –1538 explosive activity at Campi Flegrei shows that the most common explosive eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of flow or surge deposits, originating from the interaction between magma and shallow and/or sea water. The minimum volumes of pyroclastic products range between 0.04 and 0.7 km3; the proximal areas covered by these products range from 3–4 to 40–50 km2. The pyroclastic flow and surge deposits occurring inside the caldera have been strongly controlled by pre-existent morphology; because of this, the area of present Napoli city was blanketed by approximately 5 m of pyroclastic deposits, during the last 5000 yr.Previous analysis suggests that the presence of even very low topographic obstacles may influence pyroclastic density current run out such that future eruptive deposits would mainly be confined inside the caldera rim. We suggest that a future eruption at Campi Flegrei would not seriously involve the urbanized area of Napoli city located on the hills. On the contrary, the plains located on the eastern side of the caldera (Fuorigrotta, Bagnoli) would be the most damaged area.  相似文献   

17.
The late Pleistocene trachytic Campanian Ignimbrite underlies much of the Campanian Plain near Naples, Italy, and occurs in valleys in the mountainous area surrounding the plain out to about 80 km from its source, the Campi Flegrei caldera. At sites within 15 km of the Campi Flegrei, anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) principal directions indicate that, in the absence of significant topography, deposition came from a flow moving in a roughly radial direction. AMS studies of the more distal ignimbrite reveal downhill and/or downvalley flow directions prior to deposition, even where these directions are at high angles to a generally radial transport direction from the vent. On the flanks of Roccamonfina Volcano, flow was directly downhill, as if the source of the ignimbrite was the summit of the volcano. In most localities, the ignimbrite consists of a single massive deposit. In a few localities in the Apennine Mountains, however, the confluence of multiple drainage systems off mountains resulted in multiple local flow units that cannot be correlated between valleys. A detailed study of the ignimbrite in the flat Titerno River valley near Massa shows that the AMS fabrics are not due to late-stage creeping during deposition or compaction. Well-defined, but non-parallel AMS fabrics from vertical and lateral sections in the Massa area are best explained by the merging of gravity currents flowing down the valley and steep valley sides to form a single aggradational deposit. Clast compositions and AMS axes at Mondragone indicate that the pyroclastic flow encountered the Monte Massico massif and was partially blocked, so that flow during deposition was toward the Campi Flegrei. Similar AMS data from sites along the edge of the Campanian Plain indicate back-flow off the first ridge of the Apennine Mountains reached at least 5 km from their base. The Campanian Ignimbrite was deposited from a density-stratified pyroclastic flow. The depositional system consisted of the lower, denser portion of the current, and was controlled by topography. The grouping of the AMS axes is interpreted to indicate that deposition occurred under laminar flow conditions.  相似文献   

18.
Structural interpretations of negative gravity anomalies at Campi Flegrei and Campania are reviewed. The interpretations are not uniquely determined, as different models correspond to equally good anomaly fits.These models are examined using a new method based on the interpretation of the apparent density map computed from the gravity anomaly map.As regards the Campi Flegrei anomaly, a funnel-shaped caldera 3D model is readily obtained. This is more appropriate than previous interpretations, as not only anomaly but also apparent densities are fitted.As about the regional structures, the used approach suggests that the more pertinent model is a large magmatic intrusion, 9 to 14 km deep.A final scheme is proposed linking this intrusion to the funnel-shaped caldera as the main regional reservoir.  相似文献   

19.
In the present paper, we analyse long-period (LP) events and seismic noise recorded at Campi Flegrei during the uplift episode of 2004–2006. The results of a detailed polarization analysis indicate that the large number of LPs detected during the seismic crisis were accompanied by a sustained activity consisting of very low-energy volcanic signals. These weak volcanic signals, which are usually absent in ambient noise recorded in the studied area, and LP events have similar properties, namely they are radially polarized towards the same LP source. The large dataset analysed allows us to study the statistics of the polarization, leading to the extraction of the average properties of the volcanic signals. An estimate of the complexity of the system can be provided by the degrees of freedom necessary to describe the asymptotic dynamics in a reconstructed phase space. This analysis shows that both LPs and low-energy signals can be described by a low-dimensional dynamical system, while ambient noise unrelated to volcanic activity is higher dimensional. Based on these observations, we interpret the phenomena observed during the seismic crisis in the framework of the theory of self-oscillating systems, in which LPs and low-energy signals represent self-oscillations generated by a persistent hydrothermal source.  相似文献   

20.
The lithological and compositional characteristics of eighteen different pyroclastic deposits of Campanian origin, dated between 125 cal ky BP and 22 cal ky BP, were described. The pyroclastic deposits were correlated among different outcrops mainly located on the Apennine slopes that border the southern Campanian Plain. They were grouped in two main stratigraphic and chronologic intervals of regional significance: a) between Pomici di Base (22.03 cal ky BP; Somma–Vesuvius) and Campanian Ignimbrite (39 cal ky BP; Campi Flegrei) eruptions; and b) older than Campanian Ignimbrite eruption. Three new 14C AMS datings support the proposed correlations. Six eruptions were attributed to the Pomici di Base-Campanian Ignimbrite stratigraphic interval, while twelve eruptions are older than Campanian Ignimbrite. Of the studied deposits two originated from Ischia island, five are related to Campi Flegrei, and three to Somma–Vesuvius. Two eruptions have an uncertain correlation with Somma–Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei, while six eruptions remain of uncertain source. Minimum volumes of five eruptions were assessed, ranging between 0.5 km3 and 4 km3. Two of the studied deposits were correlated with Y-3 and X-5 tephra layers, which are widely dispersed in the central Mediterranean area. The new stratigraphic and chronologic data provide an upgraded chrono-stratigraphy for the explosive activity of Neapolitan volcanoes in the period between 125 and 22 cal ky BP.  相似文献   

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