首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
In order to zone the territory of Campania Region (southern Italy) with regard to the hazard related to future explosive activity of Somma-Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia Island, we drew a multi-source hazard map for tephra and pyroclastic flows. This map, which merges the areas possibly endangered by the three volcanic sources, takes into account a large set of tephra fall and pyroclastic flow events that have occurred in the last 10 ka. In detail, for fall products at Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio we used the dispersal of past eruption products as deduced by field surveys and their recurrence over the whole area. For pyroclastic flows, the field data were integrated with VEI = 4 simulated events; about 100 simulations sourcing from different points of the area were performed, considering the different probability of vent opening. The spatial recurrence of products of both past eruptions and simulated events was used to assign a weight to the area endangered by the single volcanic sources. The sum of these weights in the areas exposed to the activity of two sources and/or to different kinds of products was used to draw a hazard map, which highlights the spatial trend and the extent of the single equivalent classes at a regional scale. A multi-source risk map was developed for the same areas as the graphic result of the product of volcanic hazard and exposure, assessed in detail from a dasymetric map. The resulting multi-source hazard and risk maps are essential tools for communication among scientists, local authorities, and the public, and may prove highly practical for long-term regional-scale mitigation planning.  相似文献   

2.
The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km2 caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.  相似文献   

3.
Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Eruption forecasting and hazard assessments at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera, within the Neapolitan volcanic area, have been performed using stratigraphical, volcanological, structural and petrological data.On the basis of the reconstructed variation of eruption magnitude through time, we hypothesize that the most probable maximum expected event is a medium-magnitude explosive eruption, fed by trachytic magma. Such an eruption could likely occur in the north-eastern sector of the caldera floor that is under a tensile stress regime, when the ongoing deformation will generate mechanical failure of the rocks. A vent could open also in the western sector, at the intersection of two fault systems contemporaneously activated, as happened in the last eruption at Monte Nuovo. The eruption could likely be preceded by precursors apparent to the population, such as ground deformation, seismicity and increase in gas emissions. It will probably alternate between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases with the generation of tephra fallout, and dilute and turbulent pyroclastic currents. During and/or after the eruption, the re-mobilization of ash by likely heavy rains, could probably generate mud flows.In order to perform a zoning of the territory in relation to the expected volcanic hazards, we have constructed a comprehensive hazard map. On this map are delimited (I) areas of variable probability of opening of a new vent, (II) areas which could be affected by variable load of fallout deposits, and (III) areas over which pyroclastic currents could flow. The areas in which a vent could likely open have been defined on the basis of the dynamics of the ongoing deformation of the caldera floor. To construct the fallout hazard map we have used the frequency of deposition of fallout beds thicker than 10 cm, the frequency of load on the ground by tephra fallout and the direction of dispersal axes of the deposits of the last 5 ka, and the limit load of collapse for the variable types of roof construction. The pyroclastic-current hazard map is based on the areal distribution and frequency of pyroclastic-current deposits of the last 5 ka.Editorial Responsibility: T. Druitt  相似文献   

4.
In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.  相似文献   

5.
In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982–1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.  相似文献   

6.
We describe a numerical simulation of both concentrated and dilute gravity-driven pyroclastic flows on a digital topographic model of the Campi Flegrei volcanic field. Families of numerical flows are generated by sampling a multi-dimensional matrix of vent coordinates, flow properties and dynamical parameters within a wide range of values. Hazard maps are constructed from the data base of simulated flows, using a mixed deterministic–statistical approach. The set of probable vents covers the area of recent eruptions. Results show the key role of topography in controlling the flow dispersion. The maximum hazard appears to be the NE sector of the caldera. Flows in the eastern sector, including the city of Naples, are shown to be efficiently hindered by the Posillipo and Camaldoli hills at the caldera borders, thus reducing the hazard. The results represent the first physically based estimate of hazard from pyroclastic flows in this densely populated area, and can be used for civil defence purposes.  相似文献   

7.
the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT) (12 ka BP) is considered to be the product of a single eruption. Two different members (A and B) have been identified and can be correlated around the whole of Campi Flegrei. Member A is made up of at least 6 fall units including both ash and lapilli horizons. The basal stratified ash unit (A1) is interpreted to be a phreatoplinian fall deposit, since it shows a widespread dispersal (>1000 km2) and a constant thickness over considerable topography. The absence of many lapilli fall units in proximal and medial areas testifies to the erosive power of the intervening pyroclastic surges. The overlying member B was formed by many pyroclastic flows, radially distributed around Campi Flegrei, that varied widely in their eruptive and emplacement mechanisms. In some of the most proximal exposures coarse scoria and lithic-rich deposits, sometimes welded, have been identified at the base of member B. Isopach and isopleth maps of fall-units, combined with the distribution of the coarse proximal facies, indicate that the eruptive vent was located in the NE area of Campi Flegrei. It is considered that the NYT eruption produced collapse of a caldera approximately 10 km diameter within Campi Flegrei. The caldera rim, located by geological and borehole evidence, is now largely buried by the products of more recent eruptions. Initiation of caldera collapse may have been contemporaneous with the start of the second phase (member B). It is suggested that there was a single vent throughout the eruption rather than the development of multiple or ring vents. Chemical data indicate that different levels of a zoned trachyte-phonolite magma chamber were tapped during the eruption. The minimum volume of the NYT is calculated to be about 50 km3 (DRE), of which 35 km3 (70%) occurs within the caldera.  相似文献   

8.
The Campi Flegrei hosts numerous monogenetic vents inferred to be younger than the 15 ka Neapolitan Yellow Tuff. Sanidine crystals from the three young Campi Flegrei vents of Fondi di Baia, Bacoli and Nisida were dated using 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. These vents, together with several other young edifices, occur roughly along the inner border of the Campi Flegrei caldera, suggesting that the volcanic conduits are controlled by caldera-bounding faults. Plateau ages of ∼9.6 ka (Fondi di Baia), ∼8.6 ka (Bacoli) and ∼3.9 ka (Nisida) indicate eruptive activity during intervals previously interpreted as quiescent. A critical revision, involving calendar age correction of literature 14C data and available 40Ar/39Ar age data, is presented. A new reference chronostratigraphic framework for Holocene Phlegrean activity, which significantly differs from the previously adopted ones, is proposed. This has important implications for understanding the Campi Flegrei eruptive history and, ultimately, for the evaluation of related volcanic risk and hazard, for which the inferred history of its recent activity is generally taken into account.  相似文献   

9.
We report laboratory measurements of P- and S-wave velocities on samples of tuff from Campi Flegrei (Italy), and a new tomographic velocity map of the Campi Flegrei caldera. Laboratory measurements were made in a hydrostatic pressure vessel during both increasing and decreasing effective pressure cycles. Selected samples were also thermally stressed at temperatures up to 600°C to induce thermal crack damage. Acoustic emission output was recorded throughout each thermal stressing experiment, and velocities were measured after thermal stressing. Laboratory P- and S-wave velocities are initially low for the tuff, which has an initial porosity of ~45%, but both increase by between 25 and 50% over the effective pressure range of 5 to 80 MPa, corresponding to a decrease of porosity of ~70%. Marked velocity hysteresis, due to inelastic damage processes, is also observed in samples subjected to a pressurization-depressurization cycle. Tomographic seismic velocity distributions obtained from field recordings are in general agreement with the laboratory measurements. Integration of the laboratory ultrasonic and seismic tomography data indicates that the tuffs of the Campi Flegrei caldera can be water or gas saturated, and shows that inelastic pore collapse and cracking produced by mechanical and thermal stress can significantly change the velocity properties of Campi Flegrei tuffs at depth. These changes need to be taken into account in accurately interpreting the crustal structure from tomographic data.  相似文献   

10.
The ground level in the Campi Flegrei caldera has never been stationary in the last 2,000 years. Historical data, and a nearly continuous tide-gauge record 20 years long, show that uplift and sinking have taken place on a variety of different time scales. In addition, the Campi Flegrei volcanic system appears to be sensitive to weak external forces such as tidal forces. We infer from these elements that the Campi Flegrei system is far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and suggest that its dynamics may be chaotic. We analyze the short-term variations of the ground level, and find that they can be described in a low-dimensional phase space. The dynamics of the Campi Flegrei system seems to have been phase-locked with tidal forces in the period following the 1970–1972 climax, and to have undergone a transition to chaos in some moment that preceded the presently continuing sinking phase.  相似文献   

11.
BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.  相似文献   

12.
Structural interpretations of negative gravity anomalies at Campi Flegrei and Campania are reviewed. The interpretations are not uniquely determined, as different models correspond to equally good anomaly fits.These models are examined using a new method based on the interpretation of the apparent density map computed from the gravity anomaly map.As regards the Campi Flegrei anomaly, a funnel-shaped caldera 3D model is readily obtained. This is more appropriate than previous interpretations, as not only anomaly but also apparent densities are fitted.As about the regional structures, the used approach suggests that the more pertinent model is a large magmatic intrusion, 9 to 14 km deep.A final scheme is proposed linking this intrusion to the funnel-shaped caldera as the main regional reservoir.  相似文献   

13.
Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  
Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m2. These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.  相似文献   

14.
Digital marine seismic reflection data acquired in 1973 in the Bay of Pozzuoli, and recently reprocessed, were used to study the volcanological evolution of the marine sector of Campi Flegrei Caldera during the last 37 ka. In order to gain more information, interpretation also involved estimation of the "pseudo-velocity" and the "pseudo-density" from the resistivity logs of two onshore deep exploration wells. The main results are: (1) discovery of ancient pre-18 ka and post-37 ka submarine and mainly effusive volcanic activity, along coeval emission centers located at the edges of Campi Flegrei Caldera; (2) confirmation that the caldera collapse in the marine sector of Campi Flegrei seems strongly controlled by regional NE–SW and NW–SE structural discontinuities; (3) the finding of at least two episodes of collapse in the bay; and (4) identification of a post-18 ka volcanic deflation phase that has caused about 150–200 m of subsidence in the central sector of the Bay of Pozzuoli in the last 18 ka.Editorial responsibilty: T. Druitt  相似文献   

15.
Understanding deformation of active calderas allows their dynamics to be defined and their hazard mitigated. The Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera (Italy) is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in the world, characterized by post-collapse resurgence, eruptions, ground deformation, and seismicity. An original structural analysis provides an overview of the main fracture zones. NW-SE and NE-SW fractures (normal or transtensive faults and extensional fractures) predominate along the rim and within the caldera, suggesting a regional control, both during and after the collapses. While the NE-SW fractures are ubiquitous in the deposits of the last ∼37 ka, NW-SE fractures predominate in the last 4.5 ka, during resurgence. The most recently (<4.5 ka) strained area lies in the caldera center (Solfatara area), where the faults, with an overall ∼ENE-WSW extension direction, appear to be associated with the bending due to resurgence. Solfatara lies immediately to the east of the most uplifted part of the caldera (Pozzuoli area), where domes form and culminate both on the long-term (resurgence, accompanied by volcanic activity) and short-term deformation (1982–1984 bradyseism, accompanied by seismic and hydrothermal activity). Similar volcano-tectonic behavior characterizes the short- and long-term uplifts, and only the intensity of the tectonic and volcanic activity varies, being related to varying amounts of uplift. Seismicity and hydrothermal manifestations occur during the bradyseisms, with moderate uplift, while surface faulting and eruptions occur during resurgence, with higher uplift. The features observed at Campi Flegrei are found at other major calderas, suggesting consistent behavior of large magmatic systems.  相似文献   

16.
The central Campanian Plain is dominated by the structural depression of Acerra whose origin is tectonic, but may have been enlarged and further depressed after the eruption of the Campanian Ignimbrite (42-25 ka). The deposits of the Campanian Ignimbrite are possibly the results of multiple eruptions with huge pyroclastic deposits that covered all the Campanian Plain.The more recent activity of Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Procida occurred on the borders of Acerra depression and resulted from a reactivation of regional faults after the Campanian Ignimbrite cycle. The activity of Vesuvius produced the building of a stratovolcano mostly by effusive and plinian explosive eruptions. The Campi Flegrei area, on the contrary, was dominated by the eruption of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff at 12 ka that produced a caldera collapse of the Gulf of Pozzuoli. The caldera formation controlled the emplacement of the recent activity of Campi Flegrei and the new volcanoes were formed only within the caldera or along its rim.  相似文献   

17.
The civil defense of Italy and the European community have planned to reformulate the volcanic risk in several volcanic areas of Italy, among which Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, by taking into account the possible occurrence of damaging pre- or syn-eruptive seismic events. Necessary to achieve this goal is the detailed knowledge of the local attenuation–distance relations. In the present note, we make a survey of the estimates of seismic quality factor (the inverse is proportional to the attenuation coefficient with distance) reported in literature for the area of Campi Flegrei where many, but sometimes contradictory results have been published on this topic. We try to review these results in order to give indications for their correct use when calculating the attenuation laws for this area.  相似文献   

18.
This paper presents an automatic system for the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps and scenarios. The methodology used for the generation of both maps is based on the use of numerical simulation of eruptive processes. The system has been developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) framework, where models for the numerical simulation of different volcanic hazards have been integrated. The user can select in a toolbar one hazard and then decide whether to generate a scenario map (usually with a unique vent) or a hazard map (generally with a broader source area). Once the input parameters are selected, the system automatically generates the corresponding map. The system also incorporates a module to determine the spatial probability of vent opening, as this could be an important parameter for the computation of hazard maps. The tool has been designed in such a way that the inclusion of new numerical models and functionalities is rather easy. Each numerical model is programmed and implemented as an independent program that is launched from the system and, when it finishes the computation, returns the control to the GIS, where the results are shown. This structure allows that further analyses (specifically, risk analyses, that use as an input a hazard or a scenario map), could be also automated inside the system. Additional information, including tutorial and downloadable files can be found in www.gvb-csic.es.  相似文献   

19.
Volcanological analysis of the 10 000 yr –1538 explosive activity at Campi Flegrei shows that the most common explosive eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of flow or surge deposits, originating from the interaction between magma and shallow and/or sea water. The minimum volumes of pyroclastic products range between 0.04 and 0.7 km3; the proximal areas covered by these products range from 3–4 to 40–50 km2. The pyroclastic flow and surge deposits occurring inside the caldera have been strongly controlled by pre-existent morphology; because of this, the area of present Napoli city was blanketed by approximately 5 m of pyroclastic deposits, during the last 5000 yr.Previous analysis suggests that the presence of even very low topographic obstacles may influence pyroclastic density current run out such that future eruptive deposits would mainly be confined inside the caldera rim. We suggest that a future eruption at Campi Flegrei would not seriously involve the urbanized area of Napoli city located on the hills. On the contrary, the plains located on the eastern side of the caldera (Fuorigrotta, Bagnoli) would be the most damaged area.  相似文献   

20.
Geodetic observations at Campi Flegrei caldera were initiated in 1905. Historical observations and the few measurements made before 1970 suggested a deflationary trend. Since 1969, the ground started to inflate during two major uplift episodes in 1969–72 and 1982–1985. We collected and reanalyzed all available punctual observations of vertical ground displacement taken in the period 1905–2009 with special attention to the period before 1969, to reconstruct in greater detail the deformation history of the caldera. We make use of the many photographs of the sea level in a roman ruin (the Serapeum Market) taken during the period between 1905 and 1969 to infer with more accuracy its relative height with respect to the sea level. We identify a previously disregarded major episode of ground uplift occurred between 1950 and 1952 with a maximum uplift of about 73 cm. This finding suggests that Campi Flegrei is currently experiencing a prolonged period of unrest longer than previously thought. The higher seismicity associated with the later episodes of unrest suggests that the volcano has approached an instability threshold, which may eventually result in a volcanic eruption.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号