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1.
Sergey Grinevskiy Elena Filimonova Victor Sporyshev Vsevolod Samartsev Sergey Pozdniakov 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(8):2753-2767
Groundwater pumping and changes in climate-induced recharge lead to lower groundwater levels and significant changes in the water balance of a catchment. Water previously discharged as evapotranspiration can become a source of pumpage. Neglecting this effect leads to overestimated streamflow depletion. A small river basin (Sudogda River Basin, Russia) with a boreal climate and with long-term records of groundwater head and streamflow rate (showing that the measured stream depletion is less than the pumping rate) was investigated. The role of evapotranspiration in the water balance was analyzed by a hydrogeological model using MODFLOW-2005 with the STR package; the annual variation in recharge was obtained with the codes Surfbal and HYDRUS. The Sudogda River Basin was classified according to landscape and unsaturated-zone texture classes, and for each classified zone, the unsaturated-zone flow simulation was used to calculate the annual recharge dynamics for the observation period. Calibration of the regional flow model was conducted using flow and head observations jointly for two steady-state flow conditions—natural (before pumping started) and stressed (pumping). The simulations showed that pumped water originates from three sources: intercepted baseflow (75% of the annual total pumping rate), the capture of groundwater evapotranspiration discharge plus increased groundwater recharge (17%), and induced stream infiltration (8%). Additionally, multi-year precipitation records were analyzed to detect any long-term recharge and pumping water-budget changes. The results showed that increasing groundwater recharge by natural precipitation leads to (1) decreased intercepted baseflow and induced streamflow infiltration and (2) increased intercepted evapotranspiration discharge, thereby reducing stream depletion. 相似文献
2.
在台湾不同时间下之流量均呈现强烈的气候特性,透过具有气候意义的流量模式,可使得模拟模式的结果更接近实际情况.利用台湾的气候特性,将流量区分于不同气候之贡献,初步完成具台湾气候特性的单站流量生成模式.再使用统计方法考虑于同一流域中不同时段与不同河川间之流量,最后形成合适的多站流量模式.经由多站流量生成模式所得之流量,不似单站生成模式缺乏流域整体的考虑,同时也保持河川间的相关性,与流量间时序之关系.将此模式应用在台湾淡水河流域的支流上,已获致颇佳的结果.此具气象性质之多站流量生成模式未来适合推广于台湾其它流域之水资源规划. 相似文献
3.
气候变化对江河流量变化趋势影响研究进展 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
气候变化对基于自然稳定气候假定的流量变化趋势的检测和水资源评价方法提出了挑战。在流量变化趋势的检测中分离出气候变化的影响,不仅对水资源管理和水利工程设计有重要的应用价值,而且有助于了解气候变化以何种方式、在何时、何地、已经或尚未对水文循环产生影响,对改进气候模型的模拟与预测有重要的科学价值。
统计方法是检验流量变化趋势显著性的有效工具。直接用气候模型模拟和预测未来径流变化的可靠性取决于模型对当代降水模拟的可信度。多个气候模型集合分析有可能在一定程度上减少模型对降水、径流模拟的不确定性。近年发展起来的多个气候模型集合分析与统计显著性检验技术结合的方法,有可能模拟并预测出气候强迫导致大尺度径流空间分布的变化。随着气候模型尤其是陆—气耦合的区域气候模型对降水模拟的改进,可以预见径流变化的检测、归因和预测的趋同化模拟已为期不远。将温室气体外强迫导致的水文气候变化作为一个因子引入到水资源评价中,对于水资源管理经济与生态评估,以及未来的发展规划将是一件十分重要的变革。
相似文献
4.
采用地面雨量站点观测降水作为基准数据,评估热带降雨观测计划（TRMM）最新一代卫星降水产品3B42V7的精度;利用站点和卫星两种降水数据驱动栅格新安江模型,采用SCEM-UA算法考虑模型参数不确定性,进行流量过程模拟,评估TRMM 3B42V7在流域水文模拟和预报中的应用能力。数据精度评估显示:在平均意义上,TRMM 3B42V7日降水精度较高,较站点观测低估了6.68%;但在绝对值意义上,TRMM 3B42V7日降水精度较低,绝对偏差达到57.76%;TRMM 3B42V7经过了地面月降水量偏差校准,其精度在月尺度上有较大提高。径流模拟结果表明:TRMM 3B42V7模拟的日径流过程精度较低,有部分洪峰没有捕捉到,但仍能表征径流的日变化特征;月尺度上模拟径流与实测径流吻合较好,能表征径流的季节性和年内变化特征;计算的日尺度和月尺度95%置信区间包含大部分实测流量过程。 相似文献
5.
A conceptual model of groundwater occurrence was developed for a dike-intruded aquifer system in M??kaha valley, O??ahu, Hawai??i, USA, and used to explain the impacts of water resource development on groundwater levels and streamflow. Time-series analyses were applied to two subsets of daily rainfall, total flow, and baseflow??from the third (1946?C1968) and fourth (1968?C1991) periods of development??to evaluate changes in streamflow response. Autocorrelation, cross-correlation, squared coherency and phase functions were used to estimate the decorrelation lag time, and the correlation length, linearity with frequency, and frequency response delay between rainfall and streamflow. The decorrelation lag time for total flow and baseflow declined by 16?C20?days (d). The correlation length between rainfall and streamflow declined 4?C7?d for total flow and 10?C13?d for baseflow. The squared coherency function indicates an overall decline in linearity between rainfall and total flow across most frequencies. The changes in hydrologic response following increased water-resource development is consistent with a model of groundwater depletion resulting in less groundwater discharge and more induced groundwater recharge. Changes in streamflow response are inconsistent with observed changes in rainfall and imply that streamflow decline is more likely to be the result of groundwater pumping. 相似文献
6.
A combined-water-system approach for tackling water scarcity: application to the Permilovo groundwater basin,Russia 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The suitability of a combined water system (CWS) is assessed for meeting drinking-water demand for the city of Arkhangelsk (northwestern Russian Federation), instead of using the polluted surface water of the Northern Dvina River. An appropriate aquifer system (Permilovo groundwater basin) was found and explored in the 1980s, and there were plans then to operate an abstraction scheme using traditional pumping methods. However, the 1980s planned water system was abandoned due to projected impermissible stream depletion such that complete interception of the cone of depression with the riverbed would cause the riverbed to become dry. The design of a CWS is now offered as an approach to addressing this environmental problem. Several sets of major pumping wells associated with the CWS are located on the banks of Vaymuga River and induce infiltration from the stream. The deficiency of the stream flow in dry seasons is compensated for by pumping from aquifer storage. A numerical model was constructed using MODFLOW-2000. The results of the simulation showed the efficiency of the compensation pumping. The streamflow depletion caused by the CWS is equal to the minimum permissible stream flow and is lower than the depletion projected by the abandoned plan. Application of the CWS in the Permilovo groundwater basin makes it possible to meet water demands during water-limited periods and to avoid environmental problems. 相似文献
7.
The dependence of stream depletion by seasonal pumping on various hydraulic characteristics and engineering factors 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Compensation pumping is used to alleviate deficiencies in streamflow discharge during dry seasons. Short-term groundwater pumping can use aquifer storage instead of catchment-zone water until the drawdown reaches the edge of the stream. The capacitance is a complex, dimensionless parameter of an aquifer system that defines the delayed effect on streamflow when there is groundwater pumping. This parameter is a function of aquifer hydraulic characteristics, pumping time, and distance between the well and stream edge; the latter can involve stream leakance and vertical leakance of an associated aquitard. Three typical hydraulic cases of combined water systems (major catchment-zone wells close to the stream and compensation pumping wells) were classified depending on their capacitance structure (i.e. the relationship between surface water and groundwater): (1) perfect hydraulic connection between the stream and aquifer; (2) imperfect hydraulic connection between the stream and aquifer; and (3) essentially imperfect hydraulic connection between the stream and the underlying confined aquifer. The impact of various hydraulic characteristics and engineering factors on stream depletion was examined by conceptual and numerical modeling. To predict the suitability and efficiency of a combined water system application, regression tests were undertaken on unit stream depletion and capacitance, and power dependencies were defined. 相似文献
8.
径流相似性分区对径流资料插补移用和区域洪水频率分析具有重要意义。为准确识别水文站网中各站径流特征的相似性和差异性, 提高径流相似性分区结果的准确性, 引入Copula熵方法估算基于互信息的R统计量, 以度量各径流序列间的非线性相关性。在此基础上, 应用复杂网络理论构建以水文站为节点、以对应径流序列间R统计量是否大于给定阈值为节点间连边存在判别依据的径流相似性分区模型, 采用基于边介数的社团检测算法(GN算法)进行径流相似性分区。以鄱阳湖水系的水文站网为实例, 研究结果表明: 径流相似性分区模型具有较高的稳定性和效率; R统计量阈值为0.80时, 径流相似性分区结果最优, 此时水文站网划分为南北两部分共12类分区, 其中北部仅含1类分区; 相比于K均值聚类方法, 复杂网络方法表现更优, 其最优分区结果更为合理。 相似文献
9.
水平井和大斜度井中阵列侧向测井响应数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对水平井和大斜度井中阵列侧向电极系的工作原理,利用多电场叠加方式进行电场合成,采用三维有限元方法模拟仿真各个分电场的场分布,进而利用电场线性叠加原理得到阵列侧向测井响应。在基于计算机仿真的基础上,得到阵列侧向五条测井曲线的径向探测深度,阵列侧向径向探测深度要小于深侧向探测深度。考察了三维地层模型下井斜和侵入深度变化对阵列侧向测井响应的影响,分析了水平井和大斜度井中阵列侧向测井响应特征。模拟结果表明,在井斜小于15°时,阵列侧向测井响应受井斜影响小,可以不进行井斜校正;井斜超过60°的大斜度井以及水平井中,阵列侧向测井响应视地层厚度逐渐增大,测井响应值与直井条件下响应值差别较大,必须进行井斜校正。 相似文献
10.
分布式水文模型DHSVM在西北高寒山区流域的适用性研究 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
分布式水文-土壤-植被模型（Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model,DHSVM）是基于栅格离散的分布式水文模型,对地表水热循环的各个过程能进行很精细地刻画,被广泛应用于世界各地很多类型的流域的高时空分辨率的水文模拟,然而它在高寒山区的适用性并不清楚。基于300 m数字高程模型,应用DHSVM模型对典型的高寒山区流域八宝河流域2001-2009年的水文过程展开模拟,并采用流域出口祁连站的水文实测数据对模型进行了精度评价。参数敏感性分析表明,土壤横向导水率、田间持水量和植被反照率等是该区域主要的敏感性参数。模型默认参数会高估高寒山区流域的潜在蒸散发量,导致夏季径流量远小于观测值。通过参数率定,模型校准期（2001-2004）的模拟日径流和月径流Nash效率系数分别达到0.72和0.87;而模型验证期（2005-2009）分别为0.60和0.74。结果表明,DHSVM模型基本具备了模拟高寒山区流域降水-径流过程的能力。然而,由于DHSVM模型缺少对高寒山区流域土壤的冻融过程的刻画,春季径流的模拟精度明显受到影响,需要在将来重点改进。 相似文献
11.
采用包含一个内变量的连续化St Venant模型,即连续的Masing-Iwan模型,模拟桩-土界面扰动区土体的非线性行为。基于两种分析单桩的荷载传递模型,假设桩-土-桩相互作用为弹性且服从叠加原理,推导出了适用于群桩中基桩的两种荷载传递新模型。采用荷载传递法建立了单桩和群桩的非线性控制方程,提出了近似求解该控制方程的摄动分析法,得出了单桩和群桩的荷载沉降和轴力分布方程。所得结果表明,在低荷载水平下严格趋近于弹性解;而在高荷载水平下,能够反映直到破坏阶段的桩的荷载-沉降特性。通过一个现场试验的理论预测结果与实测数据的对比分析,验证了方法的有效性和适用性。 相似文献
12.
K T SENZEBA S RAJKUMARI A BHADRA A BANDYOPADHYAY 《Journal of Earth System Science》2016,125(3):443-457
Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143–4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006–2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR’s GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment. A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. 相似文献
13.
George Christakos 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(2):111-133
Recursive algorithms for estimating states of nonlinear physical systems are presented. Orthogonality properties are rediscovered and the associated polynomials are used to linearize state and observation models of the underlying random processes. This requires some key hypotheses regarding the structure of these processes, which may then take account of a wide range of applications. The latter include streamflow forecasting, flood estimation, environmental protection, earthquake engineering, and mine planning. The proposed estimation algorithm may be compared favorably to Taylor series-type filters, nonlinear filters which approximate the probability density by Edgeworth or Gram-Charlier series, as well as to conventional statistical linearization-type estimators. Moreover, the method has several advantages over nonrecursive estimators like disjunctive kriging. To link theory with practice, some numerical results for a simulated system are presented, in which responses from the proposed and extended Kalman algorithms are compared. 相似文献
14.
水平受荷长桩弹塑性计算解析解 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
当考虑桩侧土体非线性本构关系时对水平受荷桩的计算一般需采用数值方法,解析结果相对较少。基于Winkler地基模型和桩侧土体简化的弹塑性本构关系,对均质地基中水平荷载作用下桩头嵌固的长桩进行了解析推导,得到了桩身最大挠度及最大弯矩与荷载关系的统一解析表达式,并采用相同的方法求得高桩情形下桩头挠度的计算式。计算表明,联合荷载作用下桩身泥面处的挠度和转角不等于单个荷载作用时的线性叠加,采用常规的线性叠加法计算将偏于不安全。所求解析式借助计算器即可进行最大挠度和最大弯矩的计算,大大方便了工程的计算应用。 相似文献
15.
Xianglian Li Xiusheng Yang Qiong Gao Yu Li Suocheng Dong 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2009,3(2):198-207
This study presents a basin-scale integrative hydrological, ecological, and economic (HEE) modeling system, aimed at evaluating
the impact of resources management, especially agricultural water resources management, on the sustainability of regional
water resources. The hydrological model in the modeling system was adapted from SWAT, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool,
to simulate the water balance in terms of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and streamflow. An ecological model was integrated
into the hydrological model to compute the ecosystem production of biomass production and yield for different land use types.
The economic model estimated the monetary values of crop production and water productivity over irrigated areas. The modeling
system was primarily integrated and run on a Windows platform and was able to produce simulation results at daily time steps
with a spatial resolution of hydrological response unit (HRU). The modeling system was then calibrated over the period from
1983 to 1991 for the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin, China. Calibration results showed that the efficiencies
of the modeling system in simulating monthly streamflow over 5 hydrological stations were from 0.54 to 0.68 with an average
of 0.64, indicating an acceptable calibration. Preliminary simulation results from 1986 to 1995 revealed that water use in
the study region has largely reduced the streamflow in many parts of the area except for that in the riverhead. Spatial distribution
of biomass production, and crop yield showed a strong impact of irrigation on agricultural production. Water productivity
over irrigated cropland ranged from 1 to 1640 USD/(ha·mm−1), indicating a wide variation of the production conditions within the study region and a great potential in promoting water
use efficiency in low water productivity areas. Generally, simulation results from this study indicated that the modeling
system was capable of tracking the temporal and spatial variability of pertinent water balance variables, ecosystem dynamics,
and regional economy, and provided a useful simulation tool in evaluating long-term water resources management strategies
in a basin scale. 相似文献
16.
提出了一种基于水文系统理论的分布式水文模拟方法,它将集总的水文非线性系统模型通过GIS平台,结合单元水文模拟,拓展到分布式流域水文模拟。它既具有分布式水文概念性模拟的特征,同时又具有水文系统分析适应能力强的优点。实例分析表明:在黄河板桥流域,通过考虑时变增益因子G的空间变异性,该模型吸纳了局部高强度降水信息,对分布式空间降水输入能够产生积极的响应,获得了比集总模型更好的峰值模拟效果;在华北潮白河流域,通过分析不同森林覆盖率下的G值变化曲线,初步揭示了潮白河流域土地利用变化的水文响应趋势,即在相同的土壤湿度条件下,随着森林覆盖率的增加,G值呈减小趋势,地表产流能力降低。 相似文献
17.
Previous studies showed that the climatic processes drive the streamflow of the inland river in Northwest China. However, it is difficult to quantitatively assess the climatic-hydrological processes in the ungauged mountainous basins because of the scarce data. This research developed an integrated approach for multi-temporal scale modeling the climatic-hydrological processes in data-scarce mountain basins of Northwest China by combining downscaling method (DM), backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN), and wavelet regression (WR). To validate the approach, we also simulated the climatic-hydrological processes at different temporal scales in a typical data-scarce mountain basin, the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. The main results are as follows: (i) the streamflow is related with regional climatic change as well as atmosphere-ocean variability, (ii) the BPANN model well simulated the nonlinear relationship between the streamflow and temperature and precipitation at the monthly temporal scale, and (iii) although the annual runoff (AR) appears to have fluctuations, there are significant correlations among AR, annual average temperature (AAT), annual precipitation (AP), and oscillation indices, which can be simulated by equations of WR at different temporal scales of years. 相似文献
18.
近年来伴随气候变化地表径流呈极端化分布，为水电生态调度带来了挑战。为探究气候变化对电站发电和生态调度的影响、发电和生态目标间协调关系对气候变化的响应，以澜沧江下游梯级电站为例，结合多模式多情景未来径流预估结果及水库发电调度模型，针对发电及生态效益目标实施了单/多目标最优化。结果表明:在气候变化影响下，未来澜沧江径流总量将有所增加，水文变率将显著增强，河道生态所受影响也将增大；电站发电保证率及生态流量破坏率指标受不同调度方案的影响程度较气候变化影响更高，未来发电和生态效益的冲突依然存在；气候变化导致的水文变率增强可加剧发电与生态效益间的冲突，导致保持现有发电效益的同时增大对河道生态的影响。 相似文献
19.
The electricity generation capacity in the Limay River basin is approximately 26% of the total electrical power generation
in Argentina. Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of this basin is an important issue
for water resources management. This study explores the presence of trends in streamflow series, evaluates climate sensitivity
and studies the effects on the flow regime of predicted changes in precipitation in the basin. In order to identify and quantify
changes in observed streamflow series, the Mann–Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, and an estimator
of the magnitude of the trend are applied. In order to evaluate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in climate, the concept
of elasticity is used. Precipitation elasticity of streamflow is used to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow to changes
in precipitation and is estimated using a power law model and a linear statistical model in two sub-basins, Aluminé and Nahuel
Huapi. The effects on flow regime of the predicted changes in precipitation under different scenarios are studied. Climatic
results for different scenarios of growth in greenhouse gases from some General Circulation Models are used as inputs into
the proposed models. The analysis identifies decreasing trends in mean and minimum annual flows and in the low flow season.
The estimates of the precipitation elasticity imply that changes in precipitation produce similar changes in streamflow and
the climatic results for different scenarios show that the variations are moderate. 相似文献