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1.
Temporal variations of the maximum (B max) and average (〈B〉) magnetic inductions, minimum (α min) and average (〈α〉) inclination angles of the field lines to the radial direction from the center of the Sun, and areas of the sunspot umbra S in the umbra of single sunspots during their passage across the solar disk are investigated. The variation of the properties of single sunspots has been considered at different stages of their existence, i.e., during formation, the “quiet” period, and the disappearance stage. It has been found that, for the majority of the selected single sunspots, there is a positive correlation between B max and S and between 〈B〉 and S defined at different times during the passage of sunspots across the solar disk. It is shown in this case that the nature of the dependence between the parameters α min and B max, α min and S, as well as between 〈α〉 and 〈B〉, 〈α〉 and S, can vary from sunspot to sunspot, but for many sunspots the inclination angle of the field lines decreases on average with the growth of the sunspot umbra area and the field strength.  相似文献   

2.
The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log10E2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log10E2/3, and log10N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log10E2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log10Ni and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log10Ni time series in the different magnitude ranges (M ≥ Mci) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logN(ΔMi) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log10N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.  相似文献   

3.
Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.  相似文献   

4.
We study the frictional and viscous effects on earthquake nucleation, especially for the nucleation phase, based on a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model with friction and viscosity. The frictional and viscous effects are specified by the characteristic displacement, U c, and viscosity coefficient, η, respectively. Simulation results show that friction and viscosity can both lengthen the natural period of the system and viscosity increases the duration time of motion of the slider. Higher viscosity causes a smaller amplitude of lower velocity motion than lower viscosity. A change of either U c (under large η) or η (under large U c) from a large value (U ch for U c and η h for η) to a small one (U cl for U c and η l for η) in two stages during sliding can result in a clear nucleation phase prior to the P-wave. The differences δU c = U ch ? U cl and δη = η h ? η l are two important factors in producing a nucleation phase. The difference between the nucleation phase and the P-wave increases with either δU c or δη. Like seismic observations, the peak amplitude of P-wave, which is associated with the earthquake magnitude, is independent upon the duration time of nucleation phase. A mechanism specified with a change of either η or U c from a larger value to a smaller one due to temporal variations in pore fluid pressure and temperature in the fault zone based on radiation efficiency is proposed to explain the simulation results and observations.  相似文献   

5.
Parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma during periods of 163 isolated substorms have been studied. It is shown that the solar wind velocity V and plasma density N remain approximately constant for at least 3 h before substorm onset Т o and 1 h after Т o . On average, the velocity of the solar wind exhibits a stable trend toward anticorrelation with its density over the whole data array. However, the situation is different if the values of V and N are considered with respect to the intensity of substorms observed during that period. With the growth of substorm intensity, quantified as the maximum absolute value of AL index, an increase in both the solar wind plasma velocity and density, at which these substorms appear, is obsreved. It has been found that the magnitude of the solar wind dynamic pressure P is closely related to the magnetosphere energy load defined as averaged values of the Kan–Lee electric field EKL and Newell parameter dΦ/dt averaged for 1 h interval before Т o . The growth of the dynamic pressure is accompanied by an increase in the load energy necessary for substorm generation. This interrelation between P and values of EKL and dΦ/dt is absent in other, arbitrarily chosen periods. It is believed that the processes accompanying increasing dynamic pressure of the solar wind result in the formation of magnetosphere conditions that increasingly impede substorm generation. Thus, the larger is P, the more solar wind energy must enter the Earth’s magnetosphere during the period of the growth phase for substorm generation. This energy is later released during the period of the substorm expansion phase and creates even more intense magnetic bays.  相似文献   

6.
The 40-year period of observations of short-term variations (with characteristic times of up to 1–2 days) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) is analyzed. The continuous (with a step of 1 h) series of fluctuations (F) of the foF2 critical frequency (with eliminated daily variations) has been calculated using the hourly variations in foF2 at Moscow stations. The fractal dimension (FRH) of the fluctuations, characterizing short-term variations in foF2, has been determined and analyzed on a 30-day interval, using the Higuchi method. It has been established that FRH estimates substantially change in time. The 11-year cycle, which is in antiphase with the solar cycle, and the total annual and semiannual variations, similar to the variations observed in the normalized critical frequency of the E region and in the electron density of the D region, are clearly defined in these changes. Thus, the parameters of fast variations in the ionospheric F2 layer are affected by the phase of the 11-year solar cycle and by the position of the Earth in the orbit or seasonal variations in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

7.
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8.
The consideration of the relation between the daytime and nighttime values of the critical frequency F2, foF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer, started in the previous publication of the authors, is continued. The main regularities in variations in the correlation coefficient R(foF2) characterizing this relation are confirmed using larger statistical material (more ionospheric stations and longer observational series). Long-term trends in the R(foF2) value are found: at all stations the negative value of R(foF2) increases with time after 1980.  相似文献   

9.
In this study, continuous wavelet transform is applied to estimate the frequency-dependent quality factor of shear waves, Q S , in northwestern Iran. The dataset used in this study includes velocigrams of more than 50 events with magnitudes between 4.0 and 6.5, which have occurred in the study area. The CWT-based method shows a high-resolution technique for the estimation of S-wave frequency-dependent attenuation. The quality factor values are determined in the form of a power law as Q S (f)?=?(147?±?16)f 0.71?±?0.02 and (126?±?12)f 0.73?±?0.02 for vertical and horizontal components, respectively, where f is between 0.9 and 12 Hz. Furthermore, in order to verify the reliability of the suggested Q S estimator method, an additional test is performed by using accelerograms of Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes on August 11, 2012, of moment magnitudes 6.4 and 6.3 and their aftershocks. Results indicate that the estimated Q S values from CWT-based method are not very sensitive to the numbers and types of waveforms used (velocity or acceleration).  相似文献   

10.
The planet Earth is continuously changing in time, so there are phenomena that require continuous observation, including tidal parameters. The main goal of this study is to analyze time changes of the Love potential tidal parameters. This paper concerns an analysis of the estimated Love numbers k for the second and the third degree tides (numbers k2 and k3), associated with the tide variations of the satellite motion. The measured data used for determining the parameters k2, k3 were conducted within the period of January 1, 2014 until July 1, 2016 by LAGEOS-1 and LAGEOS-2 satellites. The results were compared with our previous determination of these parameters from LAGEOS data during the period from January 1, 2005 until July 1, 2007 to examine whether any systematic differences and time evolution occur. The adjusted values for k2 equalling 0.29842 ± 0.00008 and k3 equalling 0.0901 ± 0.0034 are discussed and compared with the nominal values given in International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service standards. The differences between the k2 and k3 values obtained for the time interval 2005.0–2007.5 and the results for 2014.0–2016.5 interval are –0.00288 for k2 and 0.0042 for k3. The obtained differences in the k2 and k3 values may indicate their evolution in time.  相似文献   

11.
A visibility graph (VG) is a rather novel statistical method in earthquake sequence analysis; it maps a time series into networks or graphs, converting dynamical properties of the time series into topological properties of networks. By using the VG approach, we defined the parameter window mean interval connectivity time <Tc>, that informs about the mean linkage time between earthquakes. We analysed the time variation of <Tc> in the aftershock-depleted catalogue of Kachchh Gujarat (Western India) seismicity from 2003 to 2012, and we found that <Tc>: i) changes through time, indicating that the topological properties of the earthquake network are not stationary; and, ii) appeared to significantly decrease before the largest shock (M5.7) that occurred on March 7, 2006 near the Gedi fault, an active fault in the Kachchh region.  相似文献   

12.
Line-of-sight magnetograms acquired by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) and by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for 14 emerging ARs were used to study the derivative of the total unsigned flux–the flux emergence rate, R(t). We found that the emergence regime is not universal: each AR displays a unique emergence process. Nevertheless, two types of the emergence process can be identified. First type is a “regular” emergence with quasi-constant behavior of R(t) during a 1–3 day emergence interval with a rather low magnitude of the flux derivative, Rmax = (0.57 ± 0.22) × 1022 Mx day–1. The second type can be described as “accelerated” emergence with a long interval (>1 day) of the rapidly increasing flux derivative R(t) that result in a rather high magnitude of Rmax= (0.92 ± 0.29) × 1022 Mx day–1, which later changes to a very short (about a one third of day) interval of R(t) = const followed by a monotonous decrease of R(t). The first type events might be associated with emergence of a flux tube with a constant amount of flux that rises through the photosphere with a quasi-constant speed. Such events can be explained by the traditional largescale solar dynamo generating the toroidal flux deep in the convective zone. The second-type events can be interpreted as a signature of sub-surface turbulent dynamo action that generates additional magnetic flux (via turbulent motions) as the magnetic structure makes its way up to the solar surface.  相似文献   

13.
The results of studying the atmospheric and ionospheric variability in the region of Eastern Siberia are presented. The analysis involved data on the atmosphere temperature at mesopause heights (Tm) and vertical sounding data on the peak electron density (NmF2). The data on temperature were obtained by spectrometric observations of the hydroxyl molecule emission (band ОН (6-2), 834.0 nm, maximum emission height ~87 km). The analysis covers the period from 2008 to 2015. Seasonal and year-to-year variations in the variability of Tm and NmF2 were studied and compared in different time periods: day-to-day variations (T > 24 h), tidal variations (8 h ≤ T ≤ 24 h), and variations with periods of internal gravity waves (T < 8 h). Both common features and distinctions in the behavior of the analyzed parameters have been found, and their possible physical causes are analyzed.  相似文献   

14.
Simultaneous observations of high-latitude long-period irregular pulsations at frequencies of 2.0–6.0 mHz (ipcl) and magnetic field disturbances in the solar wind plasma at low geomagnetic activity (Kp ~ 0) have been studied. The 1-s data on the magnetic field registration at Godhavn (GDH) high-latitude observatory and the 1-min data on the solar wind plasma and IMF parameters for 2011–2013 were used in an analysis. Ipcl (irregular pulsations continuous, long), which were observed against a background of the IMF Bz reorientation from northward to southward, have been analyzed. In this case other solar wind plasma and IMF parameters, such as velocity V, density n, solar wind dynamic pressure P = ρV2 (ρ is plasma density), and strength magnitude B, were relatively stable. The effect of the IMF Bz variation rate on the ipcl spectral composition and intensity has been studied. It was established that the ipcl spectral density reaches its maximum (~10–20 min) after IMF Bz sign reversal in a predominant number of cases. It was detected that the ipcl average frequency (f) is linearly related to the IMF Bz variation rate (ΔBz/Δt). It was shown that the dependence of f on ΔBz/Δt is controlled by the α = arctan(By/Bx) angle value responsible for the MHD discontinuity type at the front boundary of magnetosphere. The results made it possible to assume that the formation of the observed ipcl spectrum, which is related to the IMF Bz reorientation, is caused by solar wind plasma turbulence, which promotes the development of current sheet instability and surface wave amplification at the magnetopause.  相似文献   

15.
The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.  相似文献   

16.
A search for trends k(foE) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer at Juliusruh and Slough stations is performed by the method often used by the authors to analyze trends in the F2-layer parameters. It is found that k(foE) could differ in both magnitude and even sign within different time intervals. However, the k(foE) trends have been stably negative over the last two decades for both stations and all months of the year. The k(foE) values averaged over a year are ?0.012 and ?0.005 MHz per year for Juliusruh and Slough stations, respectively. The method used in the recent paper by La?tovi?ka et al. (2016) to determine foE trends is analyzed, and it is shown that the difference in linear approximation of the dependence of the observed foE values on F10.7 within different time intervals could be interpreted not as the presence of a different foE dependence on the F10.7 index within these intervals but as the presence within them of foE trends that change the slope of the linear approximation.  相似文献   

17.
The hourly values of the F-layer critical frequency from the ionospheric sounder in Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) during the time interval from 1957 to 2010, comprising five solar cycles, were analyzed for the effects of the solar activity. The hourly time series were reduced to hourly monthly medians which in turn were used for fitting a single station foF2 monthly median model. Two functional approaches have been investigated: a statistical approach and a spectral approach. The solar flux F10.7 is used to model the dependence of foF2 on the solar activity and is incorporated into both models by a polynomial expression. The statistical model employs polynomial functions to fit the F-layer critical frequency while the spectral model is based on spectral decomposition of the measured data and offers a better physical interpretation of the fitting parameters. The daytime and nighttime foF2 values calculated by both approaches are compared during high and low solar activity. In general, the statistical model has a slightly lower uncertainty at the expense of the larger number of fitting parameters. However, the spectral approach is superior for modeling the periodic effects and performs better when comparing the results for high and low solar activity. Comparison with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2012) shows that both local models are better at describing the local values of the F-layer critical frequency.  相似文献   

18.
The construction of a shale rock physics model and the selection of an appropriate brittleness index (BI) are two significant steps that can influence the accuracy of brittleness prediction. On one hand, the existing models of kerogen-rich shale are controversial, so a reasonable rock physics model needs to be built. On the other hand, several types of equations already exist for predicting the BI whose feasibility needs to be carefully considered. This study constructed a kerogen-rich rock physics model by performing the selfconsistent approximation and the differential effective medium theory to model intercoupled clay and kerogen mixtures. The feasibility of our model was confirmed by comparison with classical models, showing better accuracy. Templates were constructed based on our model to link physical properties and the BI. Different equations for the BI had different sensitivities, making them suitable for different types of formations. Equations based on Young’s Modulus were sensitive to variations in lithology, while those using Lame’s Coefficients were sensitive to porosity and pore fluids. Physical information must be considered to improve brittleness prediction.  相似文献   

19.
Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (Amax) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of Amax and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of Amax on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the Amax is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of Amax for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.  相似文献   

20.
The observations of spread F during the nighttime hours (0000–0500 LT) have been statistically analyzed based on data of Tokyo, Akita, Wakkanai, and Yamagawa Japan vertical ionospheric sounding stations for the time intervals a month before and a month after an earthquake. The disturbances in the probability of spread F appearance before an earthquake are revealed against a background of the variations depending on season, solar activity cycle, geomagnetic and solar disturbances. The days with increased solar (Wolf number W > 100) and geomagnetic (ΣK > 30) activity are excluded from the analysis. The spread F effects are considered for more than a hundred earthquakes with magnitude M > 5 and epicenter depth h < 80 km at distances of R < 1000 km from epicenters to the vertical sounding station. An average decrease in the spread F occurrence probability one-two weeks before an earthquake has been revealed using the superposed epoch method (the probability was minimal approximately ten days before the event and then increased until the earthquake onset). Similar results are obtained for all four stations. The reliability of the effect has been estimated. The dependence of the detected effect on the magnitude and distance has been studied.  相似文献   

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