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1.
The tsunami warning system in the Russian Far East employs the medium-period magnitude MS (BB) by Vaniek–Soloviev. However, its use may lead to inadequacies and underestimates for the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. Specifically, this can happen in the case of a so-called tsunami–earthquake. This kind of earthquakes with a nonstandard spectrum was revealed by H. Kanamori in 1972. This problem can be overcome by using a magnitude scale that deals with longer period seismic waves. This study develops a technique for determining the magnitudes at regional distances (from 70 to 4500 km) using the amplitudes of surface seismic waves of periods of 40 and 80 s. At distances of 70–250 km, the amplitude of the joint group of shear and surface waves is used. For the new magnitudes designated M S(40) and M S(80), experimental calibration curves are constructed using more than 1250 three-component records at 12 stations of the region. The magnitudes are calibrated so as to produce an unbiased estimate of the moment magnitude M w in the critical range 7.5–8.8. The rms error of the single-station estimate M w is around 0.27. At distances below 250 km and M w ≥ 8.3, the estimate of M w obtained by the proposed technique becomes saturated at the level of M w ~ 8.3, which is acceptable for operative analysis because no missed alarms arise. The technique can be used in operational tsunami warning based on seismological data. This can markedly decrease the number of false alarms.  相似文献   

2.
The features of the seismic regime before the strongest earthquakes of Taiwan in the late 20th (Chi-Chi on September 21, 1999, Mw = 7.6) and the early 21st century (March 31, 2002, Mw = 7.4) are analyzed. Based on 1990–1999 and 1994–2002 data, respectively, retrospective analysis of three seismic regime parameters are studied: the total annual number of earthquakes NΣ in the range of ML = 2.5–5.5 and Mw = 3.0–7.0; the total annual quantity of released seismic energy ΣE, J; and angular coefficient b of earthquake recurrence graphs. Two explicit subperiods are revealed in the course of the seismic regime: quiescence in 1990–1996 before the Chi-Chi earthquake and in 1994–1997 before the March 2002 earthquake; in 1997–1999 and 1998–2002, respectively, seismic activation is observed. Due to the predominance of weak earthquakes during the Chi-Chi earthquake preparation, factor b appeared relatively higher (–1.16 on average); in contrast, before the March 2002 earthquake, due to the occurrence of foreshocks with Mw = 6.8–7.0, the factor b values appeared relatively lower (–0.55 and–0.74 for the quiescence and activation subperiods, respectively). Despite the fundamental difference in the seismotectonic situation between the domains where two mainshocks occurred and significantly difference energy ranges of the initial seismic events, the analysis results are similar for both earthquakes. In both cases, the mainshock occurred at the peak of released energy, which can be considered a coincidence. Solid verification of this positive tendency requires the accumulation of seismological statistics.  相似文献   

3.
Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared.  相似文献   

4.
Seismicity characteristics in the areas of Sarez Lake and the Nurek water reservoir are studied. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges (0–33 and 34–70 km) formed prior to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015 (M w = 7.2). Seismicity rings cross each other near the Usoi Dam, which formed after the strong earthquake in 1911 and led to the formation of Sarez Lake, and near the epicenter of the Pamir earthquake. In addition, three out of the four strongest events (М ≥ 6.0) recorded in the Pamir region at depths of more than 70 km since 1950 have occurred near Sarez Lake. An aggregate of the data allows us to conclude that the Pamir earthquake, despite its very large energy, refers to events related to induced seismicity. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges also formed in the Nurek water reservoir area. It is supposed that the formation of ring-shaped structures is related to the self-organization processes of a geological system, which result in the ascent of deep-seated fluids. In this respect, the lithosphere is gradually adapting to the additional load related to the filling of the water reservoir. The difference between Nurek Dam (and many other hydroelectric power stations as well) and Usoi Dam is the permanent vibration in the former case due to water falling from a height of more than 200 m. Such an effect can lead to gradual stress dissipation, resulting in the occurrence of much weaker events when compared to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015, in the areas of artificial water reservoirs.  相似文献   

5.
This paper addresses inhomogeneities in the short-period S-wave attenuation field in the lithosphere beneath Altai. A technique based on the analysis of the amplitude ratios of Sn and Pn waves is used. High S-wave attenuation areas are identified in the West Altai, which are related to the source zones of recent large earthquakes, viz., the 1990 Zaisan earthquake and the 2003 Chuya earthquake. Associated with the Chuya earthquake, a large ringlike seismogenic structure had been formed since 1976. It is also found that ringlike seismogenic structures are confined to high S-wave attenuation areas unrelated to large historical earthquakes. It is supposed that processes paving the way for strong earthquakes are taking place in these areas. The magnitudes of probable earthquakes are estimated using the earlier derived correlation dependences of the sizes of ringlike seismogenic structures and the threshold values of magnitudes on the energy of principal earthquakes with prevailing focal mechanisms taken into consideration. The sources of some earthquakes are likely to occur near to the planned gas pipeline route from Western Siberia to China, which should be taken into account. The relationship of anomalies in the S-wave attenuation field and the ringlike seismogenic structures to a high content of deep-seated fluids in the lithosphere is discussed.  相似文献   

6.
Two earthquakes were recorded by 20 ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) deployed in the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR) area during a three-dimensional seismic survey in 2010. Their magnitudes (both M b = 4.4) and hypocenters have been determined by National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) only using land seismic stations onset times. After the frequency analysis and the band-pass filtering of the OBSs’ data, 7 and 13 P-phase onset times from OBSs were successfully picked for these two events, respectively. Then these two events were relocated by HYPOSAT program with onset times together from OBSs and land seismic stations using different velocity models. These relocation experiments confirm both the importance of adding OBSs’ onset data and the need to apply a local oceanic velocity model for the location of these two events happened on the SWIR. This research has accumulated a wealth of experience for earthquakes observation and research using OBSs in the ocean.  相似文献   

7.
引入拖曳系数参数化的海冰自由漂流模拟研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Many interesting characteristics of sea ice drift depend on the atmospheric drag coefficient(C_a) and oceanic drag coefficient(C_w).Parameterizations of drag coefficients rather than constant values provide us a way to look insight into the dependence of these characteristics on sea ice conditions.In the present study,the parameterized ice drag coefficients are included into a free-drift sea ice dynamic model,and the wind factor α and the deflection angle θ between sea ice drift and wind velocity as well as the ratio of C_a to C_w are studied to investigate their dependence on the impact factors such as local drag coefficients,floe and ridge geometry.The results reveal that in an idealized steady ocean,C_a/C_w increases obviously with the increasing ice concentration for small ice floes in the marginal ice zone,while it remains at a steady level(0.2-0.25) for large floes in the central ice zone.The wind factor α increases rapidly at first and approaches a steady level of 0.018 when A is greater than 20%.And the deflection angle θ drops rapidly from an initial value of approximate 80° and decreases slowly as A is greater than20%without a steady level like α.The values of these parameters agree well with the previously reported observations in Arctic.The ridging intensity is an important parameter to determine the dominant contribution of the ratio of skin friction drag coefficient(C_s' /C_s) and the ratio of ridge form drag coefficient(C_r'/C_r) to the value of C_a/C_w,α,and θ,because of the dominance of ridge form drag for large ridging intensity and skin friction for small ridging intensity among the total drag forces.Parameterization of sea ice drag coefficients has the potential to be embedded into ice dynamic models to better account for the variability of sea ice in the transient Arctic Ocean.  相似文献   

8.
传统的渔业资源评估方法对数据有一定的要求,而现有的许多渔业缺乏相关数据,造成了渔业评估和管理上的障碍。特别是自然死亡率,由于观测和计算的困难,研究中一般通过经验公式等方法进行假话,而不同来源的数据和估算方法的结果存在较大差异,可能导致在渔业资源评估和管理中很大的不确定性。本研究以蓝点马鲛(Scomberomorus niphonius)为例,利用MSE比较了22种基于有限数据的渔业管理规程(MP),筛选出DCAC、SPMSY、curE75、minlenLopt1 4种对于M不确定性较为稳健的的管理方法,并针对不同年代的自然死亡率以及通过不同计算方法得出的自然死亡率对这4种MP进行了管理策略评价。结果表明:M自1980s至今的不同年代间有显著降低趋势,该变化对MP管理效果产生了较强影响。随着M降低,种群B>0.5BMSY的概率显著上升,而过度捕捞可能性在不同MP间有方向性的差异。M变化对对curE75、minlenLopt1的长期产量的影响较小,而对DCAC、SPMSY的AAVY<15%的可能性变化较大,即降低产量的波动。不同M估算方法的估计值相差不大,对MP管理影响不明显。综合结果来看,Cur75受自然死亡率不确定性影响较小,对于渔业资源的开发和保护两个方面有着最好的权衡,最适用于我国蓝点马鲛渔业的管理。  相似文献   

9.
Through the flexural behavior test of coral aggregate reinforced concrete beams (CARCB) and ordinary Portland reinforced concrete beams (OPRCB), and based on the parameters of concrete types, concrete strength grades and reinforcement ratios, the crack development, failure mode, midspan deflection and flexural capacity were studied, the relationships of bending moment-midspan deflection, load-longitudinal tensile reinforcement strain, load-maximum crack width were established, and a calculation model for the flexural capacity of CARCB was suggested. The results showed that with the increase in the reinforcement ratio and concrete strength grade, the crack bending moment (Mcr) and ultimate bending moment (Mu) of CARCB gradually increased. The characteristics of CARCB and OPRCB are basically the same. Furthermore, through increasing the concrete strength grade and reinforcement ratio, Mcr/Mu could be increased to delay the cracking of CARCB. As the load increased, crack width (w) would also increase. At the beginning of the loading, w increased slowly. And then it increased rapidly when the load reached to the ultimate load, which then led to beam failure. Meanwhile, with a comprehensive consideration of the effects of steel corrosion on the loss of steel section and the decrease of steel yield strength, a more reasonable calculation model for the flexural capacity of CARCB was proposed.  相似文献   

10.
The current study was carried out from May 2014 to April 2015 to estimate the stock status of P. viridis in Marudu Bay. The gonad development was monitored by histological examination, while the population parameters including asymptotic length (L), growth coefficient (K), mortality rate (Z, F and M), exploitation level (E) and recruitment of P. viridis were estimated using the lengthfrequency data. Results of the current study demonstrated that P. viridis in Marudu Bay spawned throughout the year with two major peaks, one in April to May and another one in October to December. The recruitment pattern was continuous with the peak in May to June 2014, which corresponded to the first spawning peak in April. However, no significant recruitment was observed from the second spawning peak due to the difference in spawning timing between male and female populations. The estimated asymptotic length (L), growth coefficient (K), total mortality (Z), natural mortality (M), fishing mortality (F) and growth performance (ф) of P. viridis in Marudu Bay were estimate to be 117 mm, 0.97 yr-1, 4.39 yr-1, 1.23 yr-1, 3.16 yr-1 and 4.123, respectively. The exponent b of the lengthweight relationship was 2.4 and exploitation level (E) was 0.72. The high mortality, low condition indices and negative allometric of P. viridis in Marudu Bay is caused by a lack of suitable food in the surrounding water.  相似文献   

11.
The mass concentration M of surface submicron aerosol and its condensation activity χ were measured at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, in 2001–2006. Variations in these quantities on scales of several days to several months are analyzed. It is shown that the occurrence of dense and superdense hazes over central Russia became more frequent during these years. This resulted in a change in the character of the seasonal dependence of the mass aerosol concentration M: ordered oscillations whose amplitude increases from year to year appeared in the seasonal cycle of M. Due to more frequent cases of dense and superdense hazes in 2002–2006, a significant monotonic increase is observed in the annual means of M. The annual mean of M increased more than twofold in 2005 (56 μm/m3) compared to 2001 (23 μm/m3). The time regimes of M and χ are characterized by variations with periods in the vicinity of 10, 20, and 40–50 days, as well as variations with longer periods within 70–100 days. In addition, the variability of mass concentration is of a strongly intermittent character. A cross-spectral analysis has shown that, on the whole, variations in M are coherent with those in χ. If the parameters M and χ vary on the same time scales, then, as a rule, variations in M lag behind variations in χ by several days. To understand the relationship between the parameters M and χ, special investigations, including studies of aerosol composition, are needed.  相似文献   

12.
海水石油类物质吸收系数遥感化提取算法研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Establishing the remote sensing algorithm of retrieving the absorption coefficient of seawater petroleum substances is an efficient way to improve the accuracy of retrieving a seawater petroleum concentration using a remote sensing technology. A remote sensing reflectance is a basic physical parameter in water color remote sensing. Apply it to directly retrieve the absorption coefficient of seawater petroleum substances is of potential advantage. The absorption coefficient of waters containing petroleum [ACWCP, a_o(λ)], consists of the absorption coefficient of pure water [ACPW, a_w(λ)], plankton [ACP, a_(ph)(λ)], colored scraps [ACCS, a_(d,g)(λ)], and petroleum substance [ACPS, a_(oil)(λ)]. Among those, ACCS consists of the absorption coefficient of nonalgal particle [ACNP, a_d(λ)] and colored dissolved organic matter [ACCDOM, a_g(λ)]. For waters containing petroleum, the retrieved ACCS using the existing method is a combination absorption coefficient of ACNP,ACCDOM and ACPA [CAC, a_(d,g,oil)(λ)]. Therefore, the principle question is how to extract ACPS from CAC.Through the analysis of the three proportion tests conducted between the year of 2013 and 2015 and the corresponding remote sensing data, an algorithm of retrieving the absorption coefficient of petroleum substances is proposed based on remote sensing reflectance. First of all, ACPS and CAC are retrieved from the reflectance using the quasi-analytical algorithm(QAA), with some parameter modified. Secondly, given the fact that the backscatter coefficient [BC, b_(bp)(555)] of total particles at 555 nm can be obtained completely from the reflectance, the relation between BC and ACNP in petroleum contaminated water can be established. As a result, ACNP can be calculated. Then, combining the remote sensing retrieving algorithm of a_g(440), the method of achieving the spectral slope of the absorption coefficient can be established, from which ACCDOM,can be calculated. Finally, ACPS can be computed as the residual. The accuracy of ACPS based on this algorithm is 86% compared with the in situ measurements.  相似文献   

13.
The species composition, phytoplankton abundance, and relative yield of the variable fluorescence (F v /F m ) were determined in the mesotrophic Nhatrang Bay in October–November of 2004. The species diversity (250 taxonomic units) and heterogeneity of the phytoplankton structure were high. With respect to the number of species and their abundance, diatoms prevailed. In selected parts of the bay, dinoflagellates dominated. The mean biomass in the water column under 1 m2 (B t ) varied from 2.3 to 64.4 mg C/m3 being 31.0 mg C/m3 on average. The values of B t were the lowest at the stations nearest to the river mouth. Seaward, B t increased. The values of B t increased with depth at some stations and decreased at others. In the surface sea layers, the biomass was lower than that in the underlying waters. The values of F v /F m ranged from 0.10 to 0.64 (at a mean value of 0.49). The lowest values of F v /F m were observed in the area close to the seaport. Over the greater part of the bay, the values of F v /F m were higher than 0.47. Such values are indicative of the relatively high potential photosynthetic activity of the phytoplankton. The abundance and species diversity were higher than those in the dry season (March–April).  相似文献   

14.
The estimated characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer, obtained by the simulation of wind wave fields using three versions of the WAM numerical model are compared with the well-known empirical dependences of drag coefficient C d on wind speed U 10 and wave age A, as well as with the dependence of dimensionless roughness height z n on inverse wave age u*/с р. Calculations carried out for several years in the areas of the Pacific and Indian oceans, based on the ERA-interim and CFSR wind reanalyses have shown good agreement between the model and empirical dependences C d (U 10) and C d (A). The range of estimated variability for z n (u*/с р ) has been found to be significantly less than empirical. It has been also found that estimated values of wind speed U 10W (t) are overestimated from 5 to 10% in all versions of WAM models compared with the input wind reanalysis U 10R (t) at the moments of appearance maximum values of wind U 10R (t). The reasons for the established features of the WAM model and their dependence on the model version are discussed.  相似文献   

15.
The results of a simulation of the combined tidal ice drift corresponding to a linear superposition of the M 2, S 2, K 1, and O 1 harmonics of the tidal generating force are discussed. Also, ice-induced maximal (during the tropical month, i.e., over 27.322 mean solar days) values of the dynamic and energy characteristics of combined motions are estimated in the marginal seas of the Siberian continental shelf. Special attention was paid to the revealing of zones of compression-rarefaction and zones of ice floe ridging.  相似文献   

16.
Using the three-dimensional nonlinear finite-element thermohydrodynamic model QUODDY-4, we obtain two solutions giving an idea of the role of the nonlinear interaction of tidal harmonics in the formation of their spatial structure. The first solution is induced by the total tide (M 2 + S 2 + K 1 + O 1) at the open boundary and by the total static tide inside the area under consideration; then, the solution obtained is subject to harmonic analysis. The second solution is obtained by specifying such tidal sea level elevations at the open boundary that meet individual tidal harmonics. These two solutions are compared. It is shown that the differences between the solutions for the S 2, K 1, and O 1 waves can be significant, especially near the open boundary between the White and Barents seas. This conclusion remains valid also for the maximum velocities (major semiaxes of the ellipses) of the barotropic (depth-average) tidal current as well as for the average (over the tidal cycle) densities of the total tidal energy and components of the tidal-energy budget. The emergence of this feature indicates that there are resonance modes with frequencies that differ from those of the S 2, K 1, and O 1 harmonics to a lesser extent than the M 2 harmonic frequency. The same conclusion can be made by comparing the values of the amplification factor, which is defined as the ratio between the actual and static tides, for the system of the Barents and White seas as a whole and for Mezen Bay in the White Sea and Czech Bay in the Barents Sea, taken separately.  相似文献   

17.
New experimental data that make it possible to explain and predict the observed variability of turbulent-energy dissipation in the upper ocean are discussed. For this purpose, the dependence of the energy dissipation rate of breaking wind waves on their propagation velocity (see [1]) is used. The turbulent-energy dissipation values obtained earlier in [2, 3] by a direct method are compared to the results of radar measurements of individual breaking events presented in [1]. On the basis of this comparison, a strong dependence of the turbulent-energy dissipation value on the stage of wind-wave development, which is characterized by the ratio U a /c p (U a is the wind speed and c p is the phase speed of the peak of the wind-wave spectrum) is confirmed. This dependence was found earlier purely empirically. Moreover, it is shown that the theoretically obtained dependence (c p /U a )4, does not contradict the available empirical data. The results of this study opens possibilities for scientifically substantiated calculations of greenhouse-gas exchange (specifically, CO2 exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere).  相似文献   

18.
Instead of approximation formula ln(E(t)/E(0)) = [(a ? bt)t/(c + T)] commonly used at present for representing dependence of pressure of saturated streams of liquid water E upon temperature we suggested new approximation formula of greater accuracy in the form ln(E(t)/E(0)) = [(A ? Bt + Ct 2)t/T], where t and T are temperature in °C and K respectively. For this formula with parameters A = 19.846, B = 8.97 × 10?3, C = 1.248 × 10?5 and E(0) = 6.1121 GPa with ITS-90 temperature scale and for temperature range from 0°C to 110°C relative difference of approximation applying six parameter formula by W. Wagner and A. Pruß 2002, developed for positive temperatures, is less than 0.005%, that is approximately 15 times less than accuracy obtained with the firs formula. Increase of temperature range results in relative difference increasing, but for even temperature range from 0°C to 220°C it does not higher than 0.1%. For negative temperatures relative difference between our formula and a formula of D. M. Murphy and T. Koop, 2005, is less than 0.1% for temperatures higher than ?25°C. This paper also presents values of coefficients for approximation of Goff and Grach formula recommended by IMO. The procedure of finding dew point T d for known water steam pressure e n based on our formula adds up to solving an algebraic equation of a third degree, which coefficients are presented in this paper. For simplifying this procedure this paper also includes approximation ratio applying a coefficient A noted above, in the form T d (e n ) = \(\frac{{AT_0 }}{{A - \varepsilon }}\) + 0.0866?2 + 0.0116?10/3, where ? = ln(e n /E(T 0)). Error of dew point recovery in this ratio is less than 0.005 K within the range from 0 to 50°C.  相似文献   

19.
To explore the effects of temperature changes on dinoflagellate bloom succession in the coastal waters of the East China Sea, changes in the growth, photophysiology, and Rubisco gene expression of Prorocentrum donghaiense and Karenia mikimotoi, two harmful algal species, were investigated at different temperatures (16 to 28°C). The maximal specific growth rate and the maximal mRNA expression of Rubisco gene in P. donghaiense and K. mikimotoi occurred at 20 and 24°C, respectively. The photosynthetic activity of P. donghaiense was generally stable, but K. mikimotoi photosynthesis increased when temperatures rose from 16 to 28°C. The effective photochemical efficiency (F q /F m ) and the maximal relative electron transfer rate (rETRmax) of K. mikimotoi increased significantly with increasing temperature, and the lowest and highest values occurred at 16 and 28°C, respectively. It seems that P. donghaiense has higher photosynthetic capacity than K. mikimotoi due to its higher F q /F m , rETRmax, and photosynthetic efficiency (α). However, K. mikimotoi has a higher growth rate than P. donghaiense. These results suggest that the photosynthetic activity and genetic responses of dinoflagellates are species-dependent. It is likely that temperature changes affect species composition during blooms, leading to the observed patterns of bloom succession.  相似文献   

20.
The paper presents a new model of electronic-vibrational kinetics of the products of ozone and molecular oxygen photodissociation in the terrestrial middle atmosphere. The model includes 45 excited states of the oxygen molecules O2(b 1, Σ g + ,v= 0−2), O2 (a 1Δ g , v= 0−5), and O2(X 3Σ g , v= 1−35) and of the metastable atom O (1 D) and over 100 aeronomic reactions. The model takes into account the dependence of quantum yields of the production of O2(a 1Δ g , v= 0−5) in a singlet channel of ozone photolysis in the Hartley band on the wavelength of photolytic emission. Taking account of the electronic-vibrational kinetics is important in retrieval of the vertical profiles of ozone concentration from measured intensities of the Atm and IR Atm emissions of the oxygen bands above 65 km and leads to an increase in the ozone concentration retrieved from the 1.27-μm emission, in contrast to the previous model of pure electronic kinetics. Sensitivity analysis of the new model is made for variations in the concentrations of atmospheric constituents ([O2], [N2], [O(3P)], [O3], [CO2]), the gas temperature, rate constants of the reactions, and quantum yields of the reaction products. A group of reactions that most strongly affect the uncertainty of ozone retrieval from measured intensities of atmospheric emissions of molecular oxygen O2(b 1Σ g + , v) and O2(a 1Δ g , v) has been determined. Original Russian Text ? V.A. Yankovsky, V.A. Kuleshov, R.O. Manuilova, A.O. Semenov, 2007, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2007, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 557–569.  相似文献   

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