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1.
近30年中国东北地区玉米种植体系的时空动态分析(英文)   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  
Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical requirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model(SPAM) has been developed for presenting spatio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980–2010. The simulated results indicated that(1) maize sown area expanded northwards to 48°N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation(less than 100 m) as well as higher elevation(mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m);(2) maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, especially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region;(3) maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.  相似文献   

2.
Agro-meteorological disasters(AMD) have become more frequent with climate warming. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major meteorological disasters on wheat production were firstly explored by analyzing the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations(AMS) of China from 1991 to 2009. Furthermore, impact of climate change on AMD was discussed by comparing the warmer decade(2000–2009) with another decade(1991–2000). It was found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, with a highest proportion of 79%. And the frequency of AMD increased significantly with climate change. Specifically, the main disasters occurred more frequently in the reproductive period than in the vegetative period. Besides, the spatial changes in the AMD frequency were characterized by region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas located on the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. All these results were strongly linked to climate change in China. Therefore, sound adaptation options should be taken based on the latest changes of AMD under global warming to reduce agricultural damages.  相似文献   

3.
With the global warming, crop phenological shifts in responses to climate change have become a hot research topic. Based on the long-term observed agro-meteorological phenological data(1981–2009) and meteorological data, we quantitatively analyzed temporal and spatial shifts in maize phenology and their sensitivities to key climate factors change using climate tendency rate and sensitivity analysis methods. Results indicated that the sowing date was significantly delayed and the delay tendency rate was 9.0 d·10a-1. But the stages from emergence to maturity occurred earlier(0.1 d·10a-1θ1.7 d·10a-1, θ is the change slope of maize phenology). The length of vegetative period(VPL)(from emergence to tasseling) was shortened by 0.9 d·10a-1, while the length of generative period(GPL)(from tasseling to maturity) was lengthened by 1.7 d·10a-1. The growing season length(GSL)(from emergence to maturity) was lengthened by 0.4 d·10a-1. Correlation analysis indicated that maize phenology was significantly correlated with average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days(GDD)(p0.01). Average temperature had significant negative correlation relationship, while precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days had significant positive correlations with maize phenology. Sensitivity analysis indicated that maize phenology showed different responses to variations in key climate factors, especially at different sites. The conclusions of this research could provide scientific supports for agricultural adaptation to climate change to address the global food security issue.  相似文献   

4.
海河流域及周边地区太阳辐射变化成因   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Solar radiation is an important driving force for the formation and evolution of climate system. Analysis of change in solar radiation is helpful in understanding mechanism of climate change. In this study, the temporal and spatial variations of solar radiation and the cause of the change in solar radiation have been analyzed based on meteorological data from 46 national meteorological stations and aerosol index data from TOMS over the Haihe River Basin and surrounding areas. The results have shown that solar radiation and direct radiation significantly decreased, while scattered radiation increased during the period 1957–2008. Spatially, the decreasing trend of solar radiation was more and more significant from low population density areas to high population density areas. The spatial distribution of increase in aerosol index is consistent with that of decrease in solar radiation. The increase in aerosols resulting from human activities was an important reason for the decrease in solar radiation.  相似文献   

5.
Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi- model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C.  相似文献   

6.
China is distinguished by a prominent monsoonal climate in the east of the country, a continental arid climate in the northwest and a highland cold climate on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Because of the long history of Chinese civilization, there are abundant and well-dated documentary records for climate variation over the whole of the country as well as many natural archives(e.g., tree-rings, ice cores, stalagmites, varved lake sediments and corals) that enable high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper, we review recent advances in the reconstruction of climate and extreme events over the last 2000 years in China. In the last 10 years, many new reconstructions, based on multi-proxies with wide spatial coverage, have been published in China. These reconstructions enable us to understand the characteristics of climate change across the country as well as the uncertainties of regional reconstructions. Synthesized reconstructed temperature results show that warm intervals over the last 2000 years occurred in AD 1–200, AD 551–760, AD 951–1320, and after AD 1921, and also show that cold intervals were in AD 201–350, AD 441–530, AD 781–950, and AD 1321–1920. Extreme cold winters, seen between 1500 and 1900, were more frequent than those after 1950. The intensity of regional heat waves, in the context of recent global warming, may not in fact exceed natural climate variability seen over the last 2000 years. In the eastern monsoonal region of China, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial oscillations are seen in rainfall variability. While the ensemble mean for drought/flood spatial patterns across all cold periods shows a meridional distribution, there is a tri-pole pattern with respect to droughts south of 25°N, floods between 25° and 30°N, and droughts north of 30°N for all warm periods. Data show that extreme drought events were most frequent in the periods AD 301–400, AD 751–800, AD 1051–1150, AD 1501–1550, and AD 1601–1650, while extreme flood events were frequent in the periods AD 101–150, AD 251–300, AD 951–1000, AD 1701–1750, AD 1801–1850, and AD 1901–1950. Between AD 1551–1600, extreme droughts and flood events occurred frequently. In arid northwest China, climate was characterized by dry conditions in AD 1000–1350, wet conditions in AD 1500–1850, and has tended to be wet over recent decades. On the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, centennial-scale oscillations in precipitation have occurred over the last 1000 years, interrupted by several multidecadal-scale severe drought events. Of these, the most severe were in the 1480 s and 1710 s. In southwest China, extreme droughts as severe as those seen in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 are known to have occurred during historical times.  相似文献   

7.
Land cover change affects surface radiation budget and energy balance by changing surface albedo and further impacts the regional and global climate. In this article, high spatial and temporal resolution satellite products were used to analyze the driving mechanism for surface albedo change caused by land cover change during 1990–2010. In addition, the annual-scale radiative forcing caused by surface albedo changes in China's 50 ecological regions were calculated to reveal the biophysical mechanisms of land cover change affecting climate change at regional scale. Our results showed that the national land cover changes were mainly caused by land reclamation, grassland desertification and urbanization in past 20 years, which were almost induced by anthropogenic activities. Grassland and forest area decreased by 0.60% and 0.11%, respectively. The area of urban and farmland increased by 0.60% and 0.19%, respectively. The mean radiative forcing caused by land cover changes during 1990–2010 was 0.062 W/m2 in China, indicating a warming climate effect. However, spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing was huge among different ecological regions. Farmland conversing to urban construction land, the main type of land cover change for the urban and suburban agricultural ecological region in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, caused an albedo reduction by 0.00456 and a maximum positive radiative forcing of 0.863 W/m2, which was presented as warming climate effects. Grassland and forest conversing to farmland, the main type of land cover change for the temperate humid agricultural and wetland ecological region in Sanjiang Plain, caused an albedo increase by 0.00152 and a maximum negative radiative forcing of 0.184 W/m2, implying cooling climate effects.  相似文献   

8.
Sea Level Pressure(SLP) data for the period 1950–2012 at 61 stations located in or around the Balkan Peninsula was used. The main concept is that intra-annual course of SLP represents the best different air masses that are situated over the Balkan Peninsula during the year. The method for differentiation of climatic zones is cluster analysis. A hierarchical clustering technique–average linkage between groups with Pearson correlation for measurement of intervals was employed in the research. The climate of the Balkan Peninsula is transitional between oceanic and continental and also between subtropical and temperate climates. Several major changes in atmospheric circulation over the Balkan Peninsula have happened over the period 1950–2012. There is a serious increase of the influence of the Azores High in the period January–Marchwhich leads to an increase of SLP and enhances oceanic influence. There is an increase of the influence of the north-west extension of the monsoonal low in the period June–September. This leads to more continental climatebut also to more tropical air masses over the Balkan Peninsula. Accordinglythe extent of subtropical climate widens in northern direction. There is an increase of the influence of the Siberian High in the period October–December. This influence covers central and eastern part of the peninsula in October and Novemberand it reaches western parts in December. Thusthe climate becomes more continental.  相似文献   

9.
LiJuan M  Yong Luo  DaHe Qin 《寒旱区科学》2012,4(2):0093-0106
Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attending the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979–2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002–2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in warmer seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.  相似文献   

10.
Soil carbon sequestration and potential has been a focal issue in global carbon research. Under the background of global change, the estimation of the size as well as its change of soil organic carbon（SOC） storage is of great importance. Based on soil data from the second national soil survey and field survey during 2011–2012, by using the regression method between sampling soil data and remote sensing data, this paper aimed to investigate spatial distribution and changes of topsoil（0–20 cm） organic carbon storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s. The results showed that：（1） the SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s was estimated to be 2.05 and 2.17 Pg C, with an average density of 3.48 and 3.69 kg C·m–2, respectively. The SOC storage was mainly distributed in the typical steppe and meadow steppe, which accounted for over 98% of the total SOC storage. The spatial distribution showed a decreased trend from the meadow steppe, typical steppe to the desert steppe, corresponding to the temperature and precipitation gradient.（2） SOC changes during 1982–2012 were estimated to be 0.12 Pg C, at 7.00 g C·m–2·yr–1, which didn＇t show a significant change, indicating that SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable over this period. However, topsoil organic carbon showed different trends of carbon source/sink during the past three decades. Meadow steppe and typical steppe had sequestered 0.15 and 0.03 Pg C, respectively, served as a carbon sink; while desert steppe lost 0.06 Pg C, served as a carbon source. It appears that SOC storage in grassland ecosystem may respond differently to climate change, related to vegetation type, regional climate type and grazing intensity. These results might give advice to decision makers on adopting suitable countermeasures for sustainable grassland utilization and protection.  相似文献   

11.
Soil carbon sequestration and potential has been a focal issue in global carbon research. Under the background of global change, the estimation of the size as well as its change of soil organic carbon(SOC) storage is of great importance. Based on soil data from the second national soil survey and field survey during 2011–2012, by using the regression method between sampling soil data and remote sensing data, this paper aimed to investigate spatial distribution and changes of topsoil(0–20 cm) organic carbon storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s. The results showed that:(1) the SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s was estimated to be 2.05 and 2.17 Pg C, with an average density of 3.48 and 3.69 kg C·m–2, respectively. The SOC storage was mainly distributed in the typical steppe and meadow steppe, which accounted for over 98% of the total SOC storage. The spatial distribution showed a decreased trend from the meadow steppe, typical steppe to the desert steppe, corresponding to the temperature and precipitation gradient.(2) SOC changes during 1982–2012 were estimated to be 0.12 Pg C, at 7.00 g C·m–2·yr–1, which didn't show a significant change, indicating that SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable over this period. However, topsoil organic carbon showed different trends of carbon source/sink during the past three decades. Meadow steppe and typical steppe had sequestered 0.15 and 0.03 Pg C, respectively, served as a carbon sink; while desert steppe lost 0.06 Pg C, served as a carbon source. It appears that SOC storage in grassland ecosystem may respond differently to climate change, related to vegetation type, regional climate type and grazing intensity. These results might give advice to decision makers on adopting suitable countermeasures for sustainable grassland utilization and protection.  相似文献   

12.
Explicitly identifying the spatial distribution of ecological transition zones(ETZs) and simulating their response to climate scenarios is of significance in understanding the response and feedback of ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, a quantitative spatial identification method was developed to assess ETZ distribution in terms of the improved Holdridge life zone(iHLZ) model. Based on climate observations collected from 782 weather stations in China in the T0(1981–2010) period, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(IPCC CMIP5) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate scenario data in the T1(2011–2040), T2(2041–2070), and T3(2071–2100) periods, the spatial distribution of ETZs and their response to climate scenarios in China were simulated in the four periods of T0, T1, T2, and T3. Additionally, a spatial shift of mean center model was developed to quantitatively calculate the shift direction and distance of each ETZ type during the periods from T0 to T3. The simulated results revealed 41 ETZ types in China, accounting for 18% of the whole land area. Cold temperate grassland/humid forest and warm temperate arid forest(564,238.5 km~2), cold temperate humid forest and warm temperate arid/humid forest(566,549.75 km~2), and north humid/humid forest and cold temperate humid forest(525,750.25 km~2) were the main ETZ types, accounting for 35% of the total ETZ area in China. Between 2010 and 2100, the area of cold temperate desert shrub and warm temperate desert shrub/thorn steppe ETZs were projected to increase at a rate of 4% per decade, which represented an increase of 3604.2, 10063.1, and 17,242 km~2 per decade under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The cold ETZ was projected to transform to the warm humid ETZ in the future. The average shift distance of the mean center in the north wet forest and cold temperate desert shrub/thorn grassland ETZs was generally larger than that of other ETZs, with the mean center moving to the northeast and the shift distance being more than 150 km during the periods from T0 to T3.In addition, with a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation, the ETZs in northern China displayed a shifting northward trend, while the area of ETZs in southern China decreased gradually, and their mean center moved to high-altitude areas. The effects of climate change on ETZs presented an increasing trend in China, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.  相似文献   

13.
Understanding the spatial and temporal variations of cropping systems is very important for agricultural policymaking and food security assessment,and can provide a basis for national policies regarding cropping systems adjustment and agricultural adaptation to climate change.With rapid development of society and the economy,China's cropping structure has profoundly changed since the reform and opening up in 1978,but there has been no systematic investigation of the pattern,process and characteristics of these changes.In view of this,a crop area database for China was acquired and compiled at the county level for the period 1980–2011,and linear regression and spatial analysis were employed to investigate the cropping structure type and cropping proportion changes at the national level.This research had three main findings:(1) China's cropping structure has undergone significant changes since 2002;the richness of cropping structure types has increased significantly and a diversified-type structure has gradually replaced the single types.The single-crop types—dominated by rice,wheat or maize—declined,affected by the combination of these three major food crops in mixed plantings and conversion of some of their planting area to other crops.(2) In the top 10 types,82.7% of the county-level cropping structure was rice,wheat,maize and their combinations in 1980;however,this proportion decreased to 50.7% in 2011,indicating an adjustment period of China's cropping structure.Spatial analysis showed that 63.8% of China's counties adjusted their cropping structure,with the general change toward reducing the main food types and increasing fruits and vegetables during 1980–2011.(3) At the national level,the grain-planting pattern dominated by rice shifted to coexistence of rice,wheat and maize during this period.There were significant decreasing trends for 47% of rice,61% of wheat and 29.6% of maize cropping counties.The pattern of maize cropping had the most significant change,with the maize proportion decreasing in the zone from northeastern to southwestern China during this period.Cities and their surroundings were hotspots for cropping structural adjustment.Urbanization has significantly changed cropping structure,with most of these regions showing rapid increases in the proportion of fruit and vegetables.Our research suggests that the policy of cropping structural adjustment needs to consider geographical characteristics and spatial planning of cropping systems.In this way,the future direction of cropping structural adjustment will be appropriate and scientifically based,such as where there is a need to maintain or increase rice and wheat cropping,increase soybean and decrease maize,and increase the supply of fruit and vegetables.  相似文献   

14.
To understand the variations in vegetation and their correlation with climate factors in the upper catchments of the Yellow River, China, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) time series data from 2000 to 2010 were collected based on the MOD13Q1 product. The coefficient of variation, Theil–Sen median trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test were combined to investigate the volatility characteristic and trend characteristic of the vegetation. Climate data sets were then used to analyze the correlation between variations in vegetation and climate change. In terms of the temporal variations, the vegetation in this study area improved slightly from 2000 to 2010, although the volatility characteristic was larger in 2000–2005 than in 2006–2010. In terms of the spatial variation, vegetation which is relatively stable and has a significantly increasing trend accounts for the largest part of the study area. Its spatial distribution is highly correlated with altitude, which ranges from about 2000 to 3000 m in this area. Highly fluctuating vegetation and vegetation which showed a significantly decreasing trend were mostly distributed around the reservoirs and in the reaches of the river with hydropower developments. Vegetation with a relatively stable and significantly decreasing trend and vegetation with a highly fluctuating and significantly increasing trend are widely dispersed. With respect to the response of vegetation to climate change, about 20–30% of the vegetation has a significant correlation with climatic factors and the correlations in most areas are positive: regions with precipitation as the key influencing factor account for more than 10% of the area; regions with temperature as the key influencing factor account for less than 10% of the area; and regions with precipitation and temperature as the key influencing factors together account for about 5% of the total area. More than 70% of the vegetation has an insignificant correlation with climatic factors.  相似文献   

15.
To understand the variations in vegetation and their correlation with climate factors in the upper catchments of the Yellow River, China, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index（NDVI） time series data from 2000 to 2010 were collected based on the MOD13Q1 product. The coefficient of variation, Theil–Sen median trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test were combined to investigate the volatility characteristic and trend characteristic of the vegetation. Climate data sets were then used to analyze the correlation between variations in vegetation and climate change. In terms of the temporal variations, the vegetation in this study area improved slightly from 2000 to 2010, although the volatility characteristic was larger in 2000–2005 than in 2006–2010. In terms of the spatial variation, vegetation which is relatively stable and has a significantly increasing trend accounts for the largest part of the study area. Its spatial distribution is highly correlated with altitude, which ranges from about 2000 to 3000 m in this area. Highly fluctuating vegetation and vegetation which showed a significantly decreasing trend were mostly distributed around the reservoirs and in the reaches of the river with hydropower developments. Vegetation with a relatively stable and significantly decreasing trend and vegetation with a highly fluctuating and significantly increasing trend are widely dispersed. With respect to the response of vegetation to climate change, about 20–30% of the vegetation has a significant correlation with climatic factors and the correlations in most areas are positive： regions with precipitation as the key influencing factor account for more than 10% of the area; regions with temperature as the key influencing factor account for less than 10% of the area; and regions with precipitation and temperature as the key influencing factors together account for about 5% of the total area. More than 70% of the vegetation has an insignificant correlation with climatic factors.  相似文献   

16.
In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources in the region. This research is based on the output meteorological data from the regional climate model system for Northeast China from 2005 to 2099, under low and high radiative forcing scenarios RCP4.5(low emission scenario) and RCP8.5(high emission scenario) as proposed in IPCC AR5. Model outputs under the baseline scenario, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were assimilated with observed data from 91 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 to perform the analyses. The results indicate that:(1) The spatial distribution of temperature decreases from south to north, and the temperature is projected to increase in all regions, especially under a high emission scenario. The average annual temperature under the baseline scenario is 7.70°C, and the average annual temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 9.67°C and 10.66°C, respectively. Other agricultural heat resources change in accordance with temperature changes. Specifically, the first day with temperatures ≥10°C arrives 3 to 4 d earlier, the first frost date is delayed by 2 to 6 d, and the duration of the growing season is lengthened by 4 to 10 d, and the accumulated temperature increases by 400 to 700°C·d. Water resources exhibit slight but not significant increases.(2) While the historical temperature increase rate is 0.35°C/10 a, the rate of future temperature increase is the highest under the RCP8.5 scenario at 0.48°C/10 a, compared to 0.19°C/10 a under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the later part of this century, the trend of temperature increase is significantly faster under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario, with faster increases in the northern region. Other agricultural heat resources exhibit similar trends as temperature, but with different specific spatial distributions. Precipitation in the growing season generally shows an increasing but insignificant trend in the future, with relatively large yearly fluctuations. Precipitation in the eastern region is projected to increase, while a decrease is expected in the western region. The future climate in Northeast China will change towards higher temperature and humidity. The heat resource will increase globally, however its disparity with the change in precipitation may negatively affect agricultural activities.  相似文献   

17.
Maintenance of steady streamflow is a critical attribute of the continental river systems for safeguarding downstream ecosystems and agricultural production.Global climate change imposes a potential risk to water supply from the headwater by changing the magnitude and frequency of precipitation and evapotranspiration in the region.To determine if and to what extent the recent climate changes affected streamflow in major river systems,we examined the pattern of temporal variations in precipitation,temperature,evapotranspiration and changes in runoff discharge during 1958–2017 in the headwater region of the Yellow River in northeastern Tibetan Plateau.We identified 1989 as the turning point for a statistically significant 14% reduction in streamflow discharge(P 0.05) for the period 1989–2017 compared with 1958–1988,approximately coinciding with changes in the monthly distribution but not the interannual variations of precipitation,and detected a mismatch between precipitation and runoff after 2000.Both annual precipitation and runoff discharge displayed fourand eight-year cyclic patterns of changes for the period 1958–1988,and a six-year cyclic pattern of changes for the period 1989–2017,with two intensified two-year cyclic patterns in the changes of precipitation and a three-year cyclic pattern in the change of runoff further detected for the later period.Our results indicate that the temporal changes in runoff are not strictly consistent with the temporal variations of precipitation in the headwater region of Yellow River during the period 1958–2017.In particular,a full recovery in annual precipitation was not reflected in a full recovery in runoff toward the end of the study period.While a review of literature yielded no apparent evidence of raised evapotranspiration in the region due to recent warming,we draw attention to increased local retention of rainwater as a possible explanation of differential changes in precipitation and runoff.  相似文献   

18.
In view of the lack of comprehensive evaluation and analysis from the combination of natural and human multi-dimensional factors, the urban surface temperature patterns of Changsha in 2000, 2009 and 2016 are retrieved based on multi-source spatial data(Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 satellite image data, POI spatial big data, digital elevation model, etc.), and 12 natural and human factors closely related to urban thermal environment are quickly obtained. The standard deviation ellipse and spatial principal component analysis(PCA) methods are used to analyze the effect of urban human residential thermal environment and its influencing factors. The results showed that the heat island area increased by 547 km~2 and the maximum surface temperature difference reached 10.1℃ during the period 2000–2016. The spatial distribution of urban heat island was mainly concentrated in urban built-up areas, such as industrial and commercial agglomerations and densely populated urban centers. The spatial distribution pattern of heat island is gradually decreasing from the urban center to the suburbs. There were multiple high-temperature centers, such as Wuyi square business circle, Xingsha economic and technological development zone in Changsha County, Wangcheng industrial zone, Yuelu industrial agglomeration, and Tianxin industrial zone. From 2000 to 2016, the main axis of spatial development of heat island remained in the northeast-southwest direction. The center of gravity of heat island shifted 2.7 km to the southwest with the deflection angle of 54.9° in 2000–2009. The center of gravity of heat island shifted to the northeast by 4.8 km with the deflection angle of 60.9° in 2009–2016. On the whole, the change of spatial pattern of thermal environment in Changsha was related to the change of urban construction intensity. Through the PCA method, it was concluded that landscape pattern, urban construction intensity and topographic landforms were the main factors affecting the spatial pattern of urban thermal environment of Changsha. The promotion effect of human factors on the formation of heat island effect was obviously greater than that of natural factors.The temperature would rise by 0.293℃ under the synthetic effect of human and natural factors. Due to the complexity of factors influencing the urban thermal environment of human settlements, the utilization of multi-source data could help to reveal the spatial pattern and evolution law of urban thermal environment, deepen the understanding of the causes of urban heat island effect, and clarify the correlation between human and natural factors, so as to provide scientific supports for the improvement of the quality of urban human settlements.  相似文献   

19.
The Heihe River Basin is located in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China.Here,the terrestrial ecosystem is vulnerable,making it necessary to identify the factors that could affect the ecosystem.In this study,MODIS-NDVI data with a 250-m resolution were used as a proxy for the terrestrial ecosystem.By combining these with environmental factors,we were able to explore the spatial features of NDVI and identify the factors influencing the NDVI distribution in the Heihe River Basin during the period of 2000–2016.A geographical detector(Geodetector) was employed to examine the spatial heterogeneity of the NDVI and to explore the factors that could potentially influence the NDVI distribution.The results indicate that:(1) the NDVI in the Heihe River Basin appeared high in the southeast while being low in the north,showing spatial heterogeneity with a q-statistic of 0.38.The spatial trend of the vegetation in the three sub-basins generally increased in the growing seasons from 2000 to 2016;(2) The results obtained by the Geodetector(as denoted by the q-statistic as well as the degree of spatial association between the NDVI and environmental factors) showed spatial heterogeneity in the associations between the NDVI and the environmental factors for the overall basin as well as the sub-basins.Precipitation was the dominant factor for the overall basin.In the upper basin,elevation was found to be the dominant factor.The dominant factor in the middle basin was precipitation,closely followed by the soil type.In the lower basin,the dominant factor was soil type with a lower q-statistic of 0.13,and the dominant interaction between the elevation and soil type was nonlinearly enhanced(q-statistic = 0.22).  相似文献   

20.
The 1998–2012 global warming hiatus has aroused great public interest over the past several years. Based on the air temperature measurements from 622 meteorological stations in China, the temperature response to the global warming hiatus was analyzed at national and regional scales. We found that air temperature changed –0.221℃/10 a during 1998–2012, which was lower than the long-term trend for 1960–1998 by 0.427℃/10 a. Therefore, the warming hiatus in China was more pronounced than the global mean. Winter played a dominant role in the nationwide warming hiatus, contributing 74.13%, while summer contributed the least among the four seasons. Furthermore, the warming hiatus was spatial heterogeneous across different climate conditions in China. Comparing the three geographic zones, the monsoon region of eastern China, arid region of northwestern China, and high frigid region of the Tibetan Plateau, there was significant cooling in eastern and northwestern China. In eastern China, which contributed 53.79%, the trend magnitudes were 0.896℃/10 a in winter and 0.134℃/10 a in summer. In the Tibetan Plateau, air temperature increased by 0.204℃/10 a, indicating a lack of a significant warming hiatus. More broadly, the warming hiatus in China may have been associated with the negative phase of PDO and reduction in sunspot numbers and total solar radiation. Finally, although a warming hiatus occurred in China from 1998 to 2012, air temperature rapidly increased after 2012 and will likely to continuously warm in the next few years.  相似文献   

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