共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
A general method for estimating ground-water solute mass transfer rate parameters from field test data is presented. The method entails matching solute concentration and hydraulic head data collected during the recovery phase of a pumping test through application of a simulation-regression technique. Estimation of hydraulic conductivity and mass transfer rate parameter values is performed by fitting model simulations to the data. Parameter estimates are utilized to assess cleanup times for pump-and-treat aquifer remediation scenarios. Uncertainty in the cleanup time estimate is evaluated using statistical information obtained with the parameter estimation technique. Application of the method is demonstrated using a hypothetical ground-water flow and solute transport system. Simulations of field testing, parameter estimation, and remedial time frames are performed to evaluate the usefulness of the method. Sets of random noise that signify potential field and laboratory measurement errors are combined with the hypothetical data to provide rigorous testing of the method. Field tests are simulated using ranges of values for data noise, the mass transfer rate parameters, the test pumping rates, and the duration of recovery monitoring to evaluate their respective influence on parameter and cleanup time estimates. The demonstration indicates the method is capable of yielding accurate estimates of the solute mass transfer rate parameters. When the parameter values for the hypothetical system are well estimated, cleanup time predictions are shown to be more accurate than when calculated using the local equilibrium assumption. 相似文献
2.
Sadeghi G Schijven JF Behrends T Hassanizadeh SM Gerritse J Kleingeld PJ 《Ground water》2011,49(1):12-19
Objectives of this work are to investigate effects of pH and ionic strength (IS) on virus transport in saturated soil and to develop a quantitative relationship for these effects. A series of 50-cm column experiments with clean quartz sand under saturated conditions and with pH values of 5, 6, 7, 8, and IS values of 1, 10, and 20 mM were conducted. Bacteriophage PRD1 was used as a model virus. Applying a one-site kinetic model, attachment, detachment, and inactivation rate coefficients were determined from fitting breakthrough curves using the software package Hydrus-1D. Attachment rate coefficients increased with decreasing pH and increasing IS, in agreement with DLVO theory. Sticking efficiencies were calculated from the attachment rate coefficients and used to develop an empirical formula for sticking efficiency as a function of pH and IS. This relationship is applicable under unfavorable conditions for virus attachment. We compared sticking efficiencies predicted by the empirical formula with those from field and column experiments. Within the calibrated range of pH and IS, the predicted and observed sticking efficiencies are in reasonable agreement for bacteriophages PRD1 and MS2. However, the formula significantly overestimates sticking efficiencies for IS higher than 100 mM. In addition, it performs less well for viruses with different surface reactivity than PRD1 and MS2. Effects of pH and IS on detachment and inactivation rate coefficients were also investigated but the experimental results do not allow constraining these parameters with sufficient certainty. 相似文献
3.
In previous publications, we presented a waveform-inversion algorithm for attenuation analysis in heterogeneous anisotropic media. However, waveform inversion requires an accurate estimate of the source wavelet, which is often difficult to obtain from field data. To address this problem, here we adopt a source-independent waveform-inversion algorithm that obviates the need for joint estimation of the source signal and attenuation coefficients. The key operations in that algorithm are the convolutions (1) of the observed wavefield with a reference trace from the modelled data and (2) of the modelled wavefield with a reference trace from the observed data. The influence of the source signature on attenuation estimation is mitigated by defining the objective function as the ℓ2-norm of the difference between the two convolved data sets. The inversion gradients for the medium parameters are similar to those for conventional waveform-inversion techniques, with the exception of the adjoint sources computed by convolution and cross-correlation operations. To make the source-independent inversion methodology more stable in the presence of velocity errors, we combine it with the local-similarity technique. The proposed algorithm is validated using transmission tests for a homogeneous transversely isotropic model with a vertical symmetry axis that contains a Gaussian anomaly in the shear-wave vertical attenuation coefficient. Then the method is applied to the inversion of reflection data for a modified transversely isotropic model from Hess. It should be noted that due to the increased nonlinearity of the inverse problem, the source-independent algorithm requires a more accurate initial model to obtain inversion results comparable to those produced by conventional waveform inversion with the actual wavelet. 相似文献
4.
Application of synchrosqueezed wavelet transforms to estimate the reservoir fluid mobility 
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下载免费PDF全文 Ya‐Juan Xue Jun‐Xing Cao Gu‐Lan Zhang Guang‐Hui Cheng Hui Chen 《Geophysical Prospecting》2018,66(7):1358-1371
This paper presents a new methodology for estimating reservoir fluid mobility using synchrosqueezed wavelet transforms. Synchrosqueezed wavelet transforms, which adopts a reassignment method, can improve the temporal and spatial resolutions of conventional time‐frequency transforms. The synchrosqueezed wavelet transforms‐based fluid mobility estimation requires the favourable selection of sensitive low‐frequency segment and more accurate estimation of the change rate of the low frequency segment in the spectrum. The least‐squares fitting method is employed in the synchrosqueezed wavelet transforms‐based fluid mobility estimation for improving the precision of the estimation of change rate of the low‐frequency segment in the spectrum. We validate our approach with a model test. Two field examples are used to illustrate that the fluid mobility estimation using the synchrosqueezed wavelet transforms‐based method gives a better reflection of fluid storage space and monitors hydrocarbon‐saturated reservoirs well. 相似文献
5.
相带控制下协克里金方法孔隙度预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对东营凹陷南坡沙四段浊积岩砂岩储层纵横向物性变化剧烈的特点,在协克里金方法空间估计理论方法基础上,提出相带控制下协克里金孔隙度预测方法.从定量角度对沉积相加以刻画,在三维空间协同克里金估值计算时,使用相控因子对估值进行约束,使得结果能够更好地反映储层物性如孔隙度的空间展布特征.加入相带控制处理后,使变异函数较早达到基台值,减小理论模型拟合误差.利用该技术方法估算了沙四段第1小段的孔隙度,利用抽稀井进行对比分析,估算结果误差较小,预测值接近真实值,证实了该方法的有效性. 相似文献
6.
Estimating Aquifer Properties Using Derivative Analysis of Water Level Time Series from Active Well Fields 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Water level time series from groundwater production wells offer a transient dataset that can be used to estimate aquifer properties in areas with active groundwater development. This article describes a new parameter estimation method to infer aquifer properties from such datasets. Specifically, the method analyzes long‐term water level measurements from multiple, interacting groundwater production wells and relies on temporal water level derivatives to estimate the aquifer transmissivity and storativity. Analytically modeled derivatives are compared to derivatives calculated directly from the observed water level data; an optimization technique is used to identify best‐fitting transmissivity and storativity values that minimize the difference between modeled and observed derivatives. We demonstrate how the consideration of derivative (slope) behavior eliminates uncertainty associated with static water levels and well‐loss coefficients, enabling effective use of water level data from groundwater production wells. The method is applied to time‐series data collected over a period of 6 years from a municipal well field operating in the Denver Basin, Colorado (USA). The estimated aquifer properties are shown to be consistent with previously published values. The parameter estimation method is further tested using synthetic water level time series generated with a numerical model that incorporates the style of heterogeneity that occurs in the Denver Basin sandstone aquifers. 相似文献
7.
The satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide
accurate data that are routinely inverted into spherical harmonic coefficients of the geopotential forming a global geopotential
model (GGM). Mean square errors of these coefficients, in some cases even entire covariance matrices, are included in the
GGM. Due to estimation procedures with a large redundancy and insufficiently propagated observation errors, they often do
not represent the actual accuracy of the harmonic coefficients, thus also gravity field parameters synthesized from the respective
GGM. Since in most cases standard methods validating the GGMs reached their limits, new procedures and independent data are
being currently sought. This article discusses an alternative validation procedure based on comparison of the GGMs with independent
data represented by a set of GPS/leveling stations. Due to a different spectral content of the height anomalies synthesized
from the GGMs and of those derived by combination of GPS-based ellipsoidal and leveled normal heights, the GGM-based low frequency
height anomaly is enhanced for a high frequency component computed from local ground gravity and elevation data. The methodology
is applied on a set of selected points of the European Vertical Reference Network and Czech trigonometric stations. In accordance
with similar tests based on entirely independent data of cross-over altimetry, obtained results seem to indicate low-frequency
deficiencies in the current GGMs, namely in those estimated from data of single-satellite missions. 相似文献
8.
以等效源及位场物性反演为基础,本文提出一种新的求取重磁场源深度的方法.该方法将一层等效源以一定的间隔从浅部向深部移动,并将等效源作为初始模型进行反演,当反演拟合差最小时,停止反演,此时的等效源底深即为所求场源的中心深度.由于仅需要反演一层等效源,比传统的物性反演计算时间大大减少,并且不需要进行深度加权约束.理论模型数据处理结果表明该方法能够获得较准确的场源深度:以长宽比为7.5的薄板模型为例,深度计算误差约为1个点距(25 m);以长宽比为0.5~1.5的厚板模型为例,深度计算误差小于1个点距(25m).将该方法应用于实测航磁梯度数据,计算的磁源中心深度在200~250m之间,钻井资料显示该异常由埋藏深度在200~300m的闪长岩引起,计算结果与钻井资料较吻合. 相似文献
9.
A non-parametric automatic blending methodology to estimate rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Carlos A. Velasco-Forero Daniel Sempere-Torres Eduardo F. Cassiraga J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández 《Advances in water resources》2009
Quantitative estimation of rainfall fields has been a crucial objective from early studies of the hydrological applications of weather radar. Previous studies have suggested that flow estimations are improved when radar and rain gauge data are combined to estimate input rainfall fields. This paper reports new research carried out in this field. Classical approaches for the selection and fitting of a theoretical correlogram (or semivariogram) model (needed to apply geostatistical estimators) are avoided in this study. Instead, a non-parametric technique based on FFT is used to obtain two-dimensional positive-definite correlograms directly from radar observations, dealing with both the natural anisotropy and the temporal variation of the spatial structure of the rainfall in the estimated fields. Because these correlation maps can be automatically obtained at each time step of a given rainfall event, this technique might easily be used in operational (real-time) applications. This paper describes the development of the non-parametric estimator exploiting the advantages of FFT for the automatic computation of correlograms and provides examples of its application on a case study using six rainfall events. This methodology is applied to three different alternatives to incorporate the radar information (as a secondary variable), and a comparison of performances is provided. In particular, their ability to reproduce in estimated rainfall fields (i) the rain gauge observations (in a cross-validation analysis) and (ii) the spatial patterns of radar fields are analyzed. Results seem to indicate that the methodology of kriging with external drift [KED], in combination with the technique of automatically computing 2-D spatial correlograms, provides merged rainfall fields with good agreement with rain gauges and with the most accurate approach to the spatial tendencies observed in the radar rainfall fields, when compared with other alternatives analyzed. 相似文献
10.
A conceptual mathematical model was developed to describe the simultaneous transport (cotransport) of viruses and colloids in three-dimensional, water saturated, homogeneous porous media with uniform flow. The model accounts for the migration of individual virus and colloid particles as well as viruses attached onto colloids. Viruses can be suspended in the aqueous phase, attached onto suspended colloids and the solid matrix, and attached onto colloids previously attached on the solid matrix. Colloids can be suspended in the aqueous phase or attached on the solid matrix. Viruses in all four phases (suspended in the aqueous phase, attached onto suspended colloid particles, attached on the solid matrix, and attached onto colloids previously attached on the solid matrix) may undergo inactivation with different inactivation coefficients. The governing coupled partial differential equations were solved numerically using finite difference methods, which were implemented explicitly or implicitly so that both stability and speed factors were satisfied. Furthermore, the experimental data collected by Syngouna and Chrysikopoulos [1] were satisfactorily fitted by the newly developed cotransport model. 相似文献
11.
Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) is a technique that can be used to detect and characterize slope movements. It is investigated here as a tool for establishing a detailed overview of complex slope movements at a regional scale in an Alpine context. This paper gives specific recommendations to use and to understand DInSAR signals in mountainous areas located above the tree line, excluding glaciated areas. It proposes a systematic procedure based on accurate interpretations of interferometric signals from a large DInSAR dataset to locate and estimate the displacement rate of moving zones. The methodology was successfully applied in the Western Swiss Alps, where about 1500 moving objects were detected above the tree line using a large dataset of ERS and JERS interferograms dating from the 1990s. The DInSAR‐detected movements had a displacement rate ranging from a few centimeters to several meters per year and were attributed to various types of mass wasting phenomena (rock glaciers, landslides, etc.). This kind of inventory derived from DInSAR can be used as a preliminary tool for natural hazard management and process understanding in mountain areas. As automatic data archiving and systematic acquisition of SAR data are ensured worldwide for most SAR sensors, a similar methodology can basically be applied in many other parts of the globe – also by using data from current SAR sensors – as long as a high resolution DEM is available. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
A new information criterion, the extended information criterion (EIC) was applied in order to determine an optimum solution in simultaneous iterative reconstruction technique (SIRT) P-wave velocity tomography. The EIC is derived from information theory and statistics, and it measures the goodness-of-fit between the true (unknown) data distribution and the observed data distribution: the former gives the probability of data realization from the true (unknown) model, whereas the latter gives a probability of data realization calculated from a particular model of which parameters are estimated. The EIC is calculated using bootstrap statistics, a numerical technique for calculating statistical estimators. Bootstrap statistics enables us to obtain the bias between the log likelihood and the expected log likelihood, and then to obtain the expected log likelihood from the log likelihood. Since the EIC is obtained numerically, we can use it for most problems of model parameter estimation without employing the maximum likelihood method. Taking weak anisotropy into account, we reconstructed the P-wave velocity structure of a rock sample during water infiltration under differential stress loading conditions. The results indicate that we can remove unrealistic solutions sometimes encountered when too many iterations are made. In spite of much computation time, the EIC is a promising technique for the near future, prompted by the rapid progress in current computer technology. 相似文献
13.
We present a methodology for global optimal design of ground water quality monitoring networks using a linear mixed-integer formulation. The proposed methodology incorporates ordinary kriging (OK) within the decision model formulation for spatial estimation of contaminant concentration values. Different monitoring network design models incorporating concentration estimation error, variance estimation error, mass estimation error, error in locating plume centroid, and spatial coverage of the designed network are developed. A big-M technique is used for reformulating the monitoring network design model to a linear decision model while incorporating different objectives and OK equations. Global optimality of the solutions obtained for the monitoring network design can be ensured due to the linear mixed-integer programming formulations proposed. Performances of the proposed models are evaluated for both field and hypothetical illustrative systems. Evaluation results indicate that the proposed methodology performs satisfactorily. These performance evaluation results demonstrate the potential applicability of the proposed methodology for optimal ground water contaminant monitoring network design. 相似文献
14.
The state-space estimation technique presented herein provides a method for obtaining optimal estimates of concentrations for two-dimensional plumes in ground water. The concentration of a plume was defined as the state variable. The technique uses the Kalman filter and involves combining two independent estimates of plume concentrations. One estimate is called the process modeling data and the other is called the “measurement” data. The process modeling data is obtained from a numerical model. The “measurement” data is obtained from field measurements; however, for illustration in this paper it was generated by a different numerical model than the one used to obtain the process modeling data. The state-space technique produces a distribution of contaminant concentrations that is more accurate than either of the distributions generated by the process modeling or the “measurement” data. An example is presented to show that the technique produces significant improvements in the prediction of plume concentration distributions. 相似文献
15.
The paper aims to develop researches on the spatial variability of heavy rainfall events estimation using spatial copula analysis. To demonstrate the methodology, short time resolution rainfall time series from Stuttgart region are analyzed. They are constituted by rainfall observations on continuous 30 min time scale recorded over a network composed by 17 raingages for the period July 1989–July 2004. The analysis is performed aggregating the observations from 30 min up to 24 h. Two parametric bivariate extreme copula models, the Husler–Reiss model and the Gumbel model are investigated. Both involve a single parameter to be estimated. Thus, model fitting is operated for every pair of stations for a giving time resolution. A rainfall threshold value representing a fixed rainfall quantile is adopted for model inference. Generalized maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation is adopted with censoring by analogy with methods of univariate estimation combining historical and paleoflood information with systematic data. Only pairs of observations greater than the threshold are assumed as systematic data. Using the estimated copula parameter, a synthetic copula field is randomly generated and helps evaluating model adequacy which is achieved using Kolmogorov Smirnov distance test. In order to assess dependence or independence in the upper tail, the extremal coefficient which characterises the tail of the joint bivariate distribution is adopted. Hence, the extremal coefficient is reported as a function of the interdistance between stations. If it is less than 1.7, stations are interpreted as dependent in the extremes. The analysis of the fitted extremal coefficients with respect to stations inter distance highlights two regimes with different dependence structures: a short spatial extent regime linked to short duration intervals (from 30 min to 6 h) with an extent of about 8 km and a large spatial extent regime related to longer rainfall intervals (from 12 h to 24 h) with an extent of 34 to 38 km. 相似文献
16.
Yeou-koung Tung Chi-leung Wong 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):583-592
Hydrologic engineering designs and analyses often require the specification of design storm which involves rainfall amount, duration and hyetograph. In practice, the determination of design rainfall in hydrologic engineering applications involves the frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls of different durations and the establishment of rainfall hyetograph for the design event under consideration. Sampling errors exist in the estimation of rainfall depth (or intensity) quantiles from frequency analysis, which will be transmitted in the process of determining the design rainfall hyetograph. This paper presents a practical methodological framework based on the bootstrap resampling scheme to assess the uncertainty features associated with the magnitude of estimated rainfall depth/intensity quantiles and the corresponding design hyetographs. The procedure is implemented to quantify uncertainty of design rainfall hyetograph following the Stormwater Drainage Manual of Hong Kong involving the use of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) model. Of particular interesting is that the bootstrap resampling scheme implemented herein is modified to handle unequal record period of annual maximum rainfall data series of different durations and to account for their intrinsic correlations. According to the adopted rainfall IDF model, the design rainfall hyetograph is a function of the IDF model coefficients. Due to the correlation among rainfall quantiles of different durations, the IDF coefficients are found to be strongly related in a nonlinear fashion which should not be ignored in the establishment of the design hyetographs. 相似文献
17.
A novel methodology for simultaneous discharge and channel roughness estimation is developed and applied to data sets available at three experimental sites. The methodology is based on the synchronous measurement of water level data in two river sections far some kilometers from each other, as well as on the use of a diffusive flow routing solver and does not require any direct velocity measurement. The methodology is first analyzed for the simplest case of a channel with a large slope, where the kinematic assumption holds. A sensitivity and a model error analysis are carried out in this hypothesis in order to show the stability of the results with respect to the error in the input parameters in the case of homogeneous roughness and to analyze the effect of unknown roughness heterogeneity on the estimated discharges. The methodology is then extended to the more general case of channels with mild slope and validated using field data previously collected in three Italian rivers: the Arno (in Tuscany), the Tiber (in Latium) and the Vallo di Diana, a small tributary of the Tanagro river (in Southern Italy). The performance of the proposed algorithm has been investigated according to three performance criteria estimating the quality of the match between the measured and the computed stage and discharge hydrographs. Results of the field tests can be considered good, despite the uncertainties of the field data and of the measured values. 相似文献
18.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(15):1803-1823
ABSTRACTA new methodology is proposed for improving the accuracy of groundwater-level estimations and increasing the efficiency of groundwater-level monitoring networks. Three spatio-temporal (S-T) simulation models, numerical groundwater flow, artificial neural network and S-T kriging, are implemented to simulate water-table level variations. Individual models are combined using model fusion techniques and the more accurate of the individual and combined simulation models is selected for the estimation. Leave-one-out cross-validation shows that the estimation error of the best fusion model is significantly less than that of the three individual models. The selected fusion model is then considered for optimal S-T redesign of the groundwater monitoring network of the Dehgolan Plain (Iran). Using a Bayesian maximum entropy interpolation technique, soft data are included in the geostatistical analyses. Different scenarios are defined to incorporate economic considerations and different levels of precision in selecting the best monitoring network; a network of 37 wells is proposed as the best configuration. The mean variance estimation errors of all scenarios decrease significantly compared to that of the existing monitoring network. A reduction in equivalent uniform annual costs of different scenarios is achieved. 相似文献
19.
The combined estimation of model state and parameters is investigated by using an ensemble Kalman filter in a 1-D numerical study of the temperature profile at a North Sea station located at 55°30??North and 0°55??East. This simplified model implementation allows to test many configurations for the sampling of the model error for the model state as well as for the parameters. Temperature profiles from thermistor data are assimilated. The influence of a vertically or non-vertically correlated model error is examined through the computation of correlation coefficients, root mean square errors, and model bias. As the CS station is located in the North Sea region stratified in summer, vertically non-correlated model error terms have a slight positive impact on the assimilative runs. The benefit of the combined estimation of the model state and parameters is examined by comparison of a simulation where the model parameters are not adjusted to simulations with the combined estimation of the model state either with one parameter or with a set of parameters related to the surface heat exchange. The optical attenuation coefficient, the sensible, and latent heat exchange coefficients are considered. The best results are obtained when a set of parameters are simultaneously adjusted. 相似文献
20.
Jenő Reiczigel Katharina Brugger Franz Rubel Norbert Solymosi Zsolt Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(3):455-462
The Usutu virus is an arbovirus transmitted by mosquitoes and causing disease in birds. The virus was detected in Austria
for the first time in 2001, while a major outbreak occurred in 2003. Rubel et al. (2008) developed a nine-compartment deterministic SEIR model to explain the spread of the disease. We extended this to a hierarchical
Bayes model assuming random variation in temperature data, in reproduction data of birds, and in the number of birds found
to be infected. The model was implemented in R, combined with the FORTRAN subroutine for the original deterministic model.
Analysis was made by MCMC using a random walk Metropolis scheme. Posterior means, medians, and credible intervals were calculated
for the parameters. The hierarchical Bayes approach proved to be fruitful in extending the deterministic model into a stochastic
one. It allowed for Bayesian point and interval estimation and quantification of uncertainty of predictions. The analysis
revealed that some model parameters were not identifiable; therefore we kept constant some of them and analyzed others conditional
on them. Identifiability problems are common in models aiming to mirror the mechanism of the process, since parameters with
natural interpretation are likely to exhibit interrelationships. This study illustrated that Bayesian modeling combined with
conditional analysis may help in those cases. Its application to the Usutu model improved model fit and revealed the structure
of interdependencies between model parameters: it demonstrated that determining some of them experimentally would enable estimation
of the others, except one of them, from available data. 相似文献