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1.
Estimation of seismic hazard in Gujarat region, India 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Sumer Chopra Dinesh Kumar B. K. Rastogi Pallabee Choudhury R. B. S. Yadav 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(2):1157-1178
The seismic hazard in the Gujarat region has been evaluated. The scenario hazard maps showing the spatial distribution of various parameters like peak ground acceleration, characteristics site frequency and spectral acceleration for different periods have been presented. These parameters have been extracted from the simulated earthquake strong ground motions. The expected damage to buildings from future large earthquakes in Gujarat region has been estimated. It has been observed that the seismic hazard of Kachchh region is more in comparison with Saurashtra and mainland. All the cities of Kachchh can expect peak acceleration in excess of 500?cm/s2 at surface in case of future large earthquakes from major faults in Kachchh region. The cities of Saurashtra can expect accelerations of less than 200?cm/s2 at surface. The mainland Gujarat is having the lowest seismic hazard as compared with other two regions of Gujarat. The expected accelerations are less than 50?cm/s2 at most of the places. The single- and double-story buildings in Kachchh region are at highest risk as they can expect large accelerations corresponding to natural periods of such small structures. Such structures are relatively safe in mainland region. The buildings of 3?C4 stories and tall structures that exist mostly in cities of Saurashtra and mainland can expect accelerations in excess of 100?cm/s2 during a large earthquake in Kachchh region. It has been found that a total of 0.11 million buildings in Rajkot taluka of Saurashtra are vulnerable to total damage. In Kachchh region, 0.37 million buildings are vulnerable. Most vulnerable talukas are Bhuj, Anjar, Rapar, Bhachau, and Mandvi in Kachchh district and Rajkot, Junagadh, Jamnagar, Surendernagar and Porbandar in Saurashtra. In mainland region, buildings in Bharuch taluka are more vulnerable due to proximity to active Narmada-Son geo-fracture. The scenario hazard maps presented in this study for moderate as well as large earthquakes in the region may be used to augment the information available in the probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the region. 相似文献
2.
L. Moratto B. Orlecka-Sikora G. Costa P. Suhadolc Ch. Papaioannou C.B. Papazachos 《Tectonophysics》2007,442(1-4):66-82
The maximum expected ground motion in Greece is estimated for shallow earthquakes using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). In order to accomplish this analysis the input data include an homogeneous catalogue of earthquakes for the period 426 BC–2003, a seismogenic source model with representative focal mechanisms and a set of velocity models. Because of the discrete character of the earthquake catalogue and of errors in location of single seismic events, a smoothing algorithm is applied to the catalogue of the main shocks to get a spatially smoothed distribution of magnitude. Based on the selected input parameters synthetic seismograms for an upper frequency content of 1 Hz are computed on a grid of 0.2° × 0.2°. The resultant horizontal components for displacement, velocity, acceleration and DGA (Design Ground Acceleration) are mapped. The maps which depict these results cannot be compared with previously published maps based on probabilistic methodologies as the latter were compiled for a mean return period of 476 years. Therefore, in order to validate our deterministic analysis, the final results are compared with PGA estimated from the maximum observed macroseismic intensity in Greece during the period 426 BC–2003.Since the results are obtained for point sources, with the frequency content scaled with moment magnitude, some sensitivity tests are performed to assess the influence of the finite extent of fault related to large events. Sensitivity tests are also performed to investigate the changes in the peak ground motion quantities when varying the crustal velocity models in some seismogenic areas. The ratios and the relative differences between the results obtained using different models are mapped and their mean value computed. The results highlight the importance in the deterministic approach of using good and reliable velocity models. 相似文献
3.
A seismic hazard evaluation for three dams in the Rocky Mountains of northern Colorado is based on a study of the historical seismicity. To model earthquake occurrence as a random process utilizing a maximum likelihood method, the catalog must exhibit random space-time characteristics. This was achieved using a declustering procedure and correction for completeness of recording. On the basis of the resulting a- and b-values, probabilistic epicentral distances for a 2 × 10–5 annual probability were calculated. For a random earthquake of magnitude M
L
6.0–6.5, this distance is 15 km. Suggested ground motion parameters were estimated using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Critical peak horizontal accelerations at the dams are 0.22g if median values are assumed and 0.39g if variable attenuation and seismicity rates are taken into account. For structural analysis of the dams, synthetic acceleration time series were calculated to match the empirical response spectra. In addition, existing horizontal strong motion records from two Mammoth Lakes, California earthquakes were selected and scaled to fit the target horizontal acceleration response spectra. 相似文献
4.
Seismic hazard maps are constructed by extrapolating from the frequency of small earthquakes, the annual probability of large, infrequent, earthquakes. Combining the potential contribution from all seismically active volumes, one calculates the peak ground acceleration with a probability to be exceeded by 10?% in 50?years at any given point. The consequential risk, the losses to be expected, derives from the damage the calculated shaking causes to buildings, and the impact on occupants due to collapsing structures. We show that the numbers of fatalities in recent disastrous earthquakes were underestimated by the world seismic hazard maps by approximately two to three orders of magnitude. Thus, seismic hazard maps based on the standard method cannot be used to estimate the risk to which the population is exposed due to large earthquakes. 相似文献
5.
A method of seismic zonation based on the deterministic modeling of rupture planes is presented. Finite rupture planes along
identified lineaments are modeled in the Uttarakhand Himalaya based on the semi empirical technique of Midorikawa (Tectonophysics
218:287–295, 1993). The expected peak ground acceleration thus estimated from this technique is divided into different zones
similar to zones proposed by the Bureau of Indian standard, BIS (Indian standards code of practice for earthquake-resistant
design of structures, 2002). The proposed technique has been applied to Kumaon Himalaya area and the surrounding region for
earthquakes of magnitude M > 6.0. Approximately 56000 km2 study area is classified into the highest hazard zone V with peak accelerations of more than 400 cm/s2. This zone V includes the cities of the Dharchula, Almora, Nainital, Haridwar, Okhimath, Uttarkashi, Pithorahargh, Lohaghat,
Munsiari, Rudraprayag, and Karnprayag. The Sobla and Gopeshwar regions belong to zone IV, where peak ground accelerations
of the order from 250 to 400 cm/s2 can be expected. The prepared map shows that epicenters of many past earthquakes in this region lie in zone V, and hence
indicating the utility of developed map in defining various seismic zones. 相似文献
6.
Probabilistic seismic hazard of Pakistan, Azad-Jammu and Kashmir 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
The seismic hazard study for Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir has been conducted by using probabilistic approach in terms
of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in m/s2 and also seismic hazard response spectra for different cities. A new version of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53,
2005) ground acceleration model is used, and parameterization is based on most recent updated earthquake catalogs that consisted
of 14,000 events. The threshold magnitude was fixed at M
w 4.8, but seismic zones like northern Pakistan–Tajikistan, Hindukush and northern Afghanistan–Tajikistan border had M
w 5.2. The average normalized ‘a’ and ‘b’ values for all zones are 6.15 and 0.95, respectively. Seismicity of study area was modeled, and ground motion was computed
for eight frequencies (0.025, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 s) for different annual exceedance rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.005,
0.002 and 0.001 (return periods 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1,000 years) for stiff rocks at the gridding of 0.1° × 0.1°. Seismic
hazard maps based on computed PGA for 0.02, 0.01 and 0.002 annual exceedance are prepared. These maps indicate the earthquake
hazard of Pakistan and surrounding areas in the form of acceleration contour lines, which are in agreement with geological
and seismotectonic characteristics of the study area. The maximum seismic hazard values are found at Muzaffarabad, Gilgit
and Quetta areas. 相似文献
7.
A probabilistic procedure was applied to assess seismic hazard for the sites of five Greek cities (Athens, Heraklion, Patras, Thessaloniki and Volos) using peak ground acceleration as the hazard parameter. The methodology allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or a combination of both. It has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at a given site and does not require any specification of seismic sources or/and seismic zones. A new relation for the attenuation of peak ground acceleration was employed for the shallow seismicity in Greece. The computations involved the area- and site-specific parts. When assessing magnitude recurrence for the areas surrounding the five cities, the maximum magnitude, mmax, was estimated using a recently derived equation. The site-specific results were expressed as probabilities that a given peak ground acceleration value will be exceeded at least once during a time interval of 1, 50 and 100 years at the sites of the cities. They were based on the maximum peak ground acceleration values computed by assuming the occurrence of the strongest possible earthquake (of magnitude mmax) at a very short distance from the site and using the mean value obtained with the help of the attenuation law. This gave 0.24 g for Athens, 0.53 g for Heraklion (shallow) and 0.39 g Heraklion (intermediate-depth seismicity), 0.30 g for Patras, 0.35 g for Thessaloniki and 0.30 g for Volos. In addition, the probabilities of exceedance of the estimated maximum peak ground acceleration values were calculated for the sites. The standard deviation of the new Greek attenuation law demonstrates the uncertainty and large variation of predicted peak ground acceleration values. 相似文献
8.
Sankar Kumar Nath Kiran Kumar Singh Thingbaijam Abhishek Raj 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(2):809-831
A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds — a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of M W 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes — geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications — ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain. 相似文献
9.
10.
This paper deals with the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis carried out in the Oran region, situated in the Northwest of Algeria. This part of Algeriawas historically struck by strong earthquakes. It was particularly affected during theOctober 9, 1790 Oran earthquake of intensity X. The main purpose of this work is to assessseismic hazard on rocks in order to provide engineers and planners with a basic tool for seismicrisk mitigation. The probabilistic approach is used in order to take into account uncertaintiesin seismic hazard assessment. Seismic sources are defined in the light of the most recentresults obtained from seismotectonics analyses carried out in North Algeria.Source parameters such as b-values, slip rate and maximum magnitude are assessed for eachseismic source. The attenuation of ground shaking motion with distance is estimated byusing attenuation relationships developed elsewhere throughout the world (Sadigh et al., 1993; Ambraseys and Bommer, 1991). The two relationships agree well with the local data. Differentchoices of source parameter values and attenuation relationships are assigned weights in alogic tree model. Results are presented as relationships between values of peak groundacceleration (PGA) and annual frequency of exceedance, and maps of hazard for returnperiods of 200 years and 500 years. A maximum peak ground acceleration of 0.42 g is obtainedfor the Oran site for a return period of 500 years. 相似文献
11.
This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic
map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The
region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories:
one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes
the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the
damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface
rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes
match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also
marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes
relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released
the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in
the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source
and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified
and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M
w
) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional
rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA)
due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum
of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map
developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes
gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones,
as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources. 相似文献
12.
The aim of this study was to provide a contribution to seismic hazard assessment of the Salento Peninsula (Apulia, southern Italy). It is well known that this area was struck by the February 20, 1743, earthquake (I 0 = IX and M w = 7.1), the strongest seismic event of Salento, that caused the most severe damage in the towns of Nardò (Lecce) and Francavilla Fontana (Brindisi), in the Ionian Islands (Greece) and in the western coast of Albania. It was also widely felt in the western coast of Greece, in Malta Islands, in southern Italy and in some localities of central and northern Italy. Moreover, the area of the Salento Peninsula has also been hit by several low-energy and a few high-energy earthquakes over the last centuries; the instrumental recent seismicity is mainly concentrated in the western sector of the peninsula and in the Otranto Channel. The Salento area has also experienced destructive seismicity of neighboring regions in Italy (the Gargano Promontory in northern Apulia, the Southern Apennines chain, the Calabrian Arc) and in the Balkan Peninsula (Greece and Albania). Accordingly, a critical analysis of several documentary and historical sources, as well as of the geologic–geomorphologic ground effects due to the strong 1743 Salento earthquake, has been carried out by the authors in this paper; the final purpose has been to re-evaluate the 1743 MCS macroseismic intensities and to provide a list of newly classified localities according to the ESI-07 scale on the base of recognized Earthquake Environmental Effects. The result is a quite different damage scenario due to this earthquake that could raise the seismic potential currently recognized for the Salento area, and consequently upgrade the seismic hazard classification of the Salento. Indeed it is important to remind that currently, despite the intense earthquake activity recorded not only in the Otranto Channel, but especially in Greece and Albania, this area is classified in the least dangerous category of the Seismic Classification of the Italian territory (IV category).
相似文献13.
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is developed here using maximum credible earthquake magnitude statistics and earthquake perceptibility hazard. Earthquake perceptibility hazard is defined as the probability a site perceives ground shaking equal to or greater than a selected ground motion level X, resulting from an earthquake of magnitude M, and develops estimates for the most perceptible earthquake magnitude, M P(max). Realistic and usable maximum magnitude statistics are obtained from both whole process and part process statistical recurrence models. These approaches are extended to develop relationships between perceptible earthquake magnitude hazard and maximum magnitude recurrence models that are governed by asymptotic and finite return period properties, respectively. Integrated perceptibility curves illustrating the probability of a specific level of perceptible ground motion due to all earthquakes over the magnitude range extending from ?∞ to a magnitude M i are then developed from reviewing site-specific magnitude perceptibility. These lead on to achieving site-specific annual probability of exceedance hazard curves for the example cities of Sofia and Thessaloniki for both horizontal ground acceleration and ground velocity. Both the maximum credible earthquake magnitude M 3 and the most perceptible earthquake magnitude M P(max) are of importance to the earthquake engineer when approaching anti-seismic building design. Both forms of hazard are illustrated using contoured hazard maps for the region bounded by 39°–45°N, 19°–29°E. Patterns are observed for these magnitude hazard estimates—especially M P(max) specific to horizontal ground acceleration and horizontal ground velocity—and compared to inferred patterns of crustal deformation across the region. The full geographic region considered is estimated to be subject to a maximum credible earthquake magnitude M 3—estimated using cumulative seismic moment release statistics—of 7.53 M w, calculated from the full content of the adopted earthquake catalogue, while Bulgaria’s capital, Sofia, is estimated a comparable value of 7.36 M w. Sofia is also forecast most perceptible earthquake magnitudes for the lowest levels considered for horizontal ground acceleration of M PA(50) = 7.20 M w and horizontal ground velocity of M PV(5) = 7.23 M w for a specimen focal depth of 15 km. 相似文献
14.
Abdallah I. Husein Malkawi Robert Y. Liang Jamal H. Nusairat Azm S. Al-Homoud 《Natural Hazards》1995,12(2):139-151
Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate
4 and the upper bound magnitudem
1 are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures. 相似文献
15.
We apply the general concept of seismic risk analysis based on morphostructural analysis of the territory, pattern recognition of earthquake-prone nodes, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, in another seismic region of Russia to the west from Lake Baikal, i.e., Altai–Sayan Region. The USLE generalizes the empirical Gutenberg–Richter relationship making use of apparently fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size: \( \log_{10} N\left( {M,L} \right)\, = \,A\, + \,B \cdot \left( {5\, - \,M} \right)\, + \,C \cdot \log_{10} L, \) where N (M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The local estimates of A, B, and C allow determination of the expected maximum credible magnitude in a given time interval and the associated spread around ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macroseismic intensity, I0). Compilation of the corresponding seismic hazard map of Altai–Sayan Region and its rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past is used to model regional maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. 相似文献
16.
Indian peninsular shield, which was once considered to be seismically stable, is experiencing many earthquakes recently. As
part of the national level microzonation programme, Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India has initiated microzonation
of greater Bangalore region. The seismic hazard analysis of Bangalore region is carried out as part of this project. The paper
presents the determination of maximum credible earthquake (MCE) and generation of synthetic acceleration time history plot
for the Bangalore region. MCE has been determined by considering the regional seismotectonic activity in about 350 km radius
around Bangalore city. The seismotectonic map has been prepared by considering the faults, lineaments, shear zones in the
area and historic earthquake events of more than 150 events. Shortest distance from the Bangalore to the different sources
is measured and then peak ground acceleration (PGA) is calculated for the different source and moment magnitude. Maximum credible
earthquake found in terms of moment magnitude is 5.1 with PGA value of 0.146 g at city centre with assuming the hypo central
distance of 15.88 km from the focal point. Also, correlations for the fault length with historic earthquake in terms of moment
magnitude, yields (taking the rupture fault length as 5% of the total fault length) a PGA value of 0.159 g. Acceleration time
history (ground motion) and a response acceleration spectrum for the corresponding magnitude has been generated using synthetic
earthquake model considering the regional seismotectonic parameters. The maximum spectral acceleration obtained is 0.332 g
for predominant period of 0.06 s. The PGA value and synthetic earthquake ground motion data from the identified vulnerable
source using seismotectonic map will be useful for the PGA mapping and microzonation of the area. 相似文献
17.
Seismic Hazard and Loss Estimation for Central America 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2
A new methodology of seismic hazard and loss estimation has been proposed by Chen et al. (Chen et al., 1998; Chan et al., 1998) for the study of global seismic risk. Due to its high adaptability for regions of different features and scales, the methodology was applied to Central America. Seismic hazard maps in terms of both macro-seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are provided. The maps are all based on the global instrumental as well as historical seismic catalogs and available attenuation relations. Employing the population-weighted gross domestic product (GDP) data, the expected earthquake loss in 50 years for Central America is also estimated at a 5' latitude × 5' longitude resolution. Besides the seismic risk index, a measure of the relative loss or risk degree is calculated for each individual country within the study area. The risk index may provide a useful tool to help allocations of limited mitigation resources and efforts for the purpose of reduction of seismic disasters. For expected heavy loss locations, such as the Central American capital cities, earthquake scenario analysis is helpful in providing a quick overview of loss distribution assuming a major event occurs there. Examples of scenario analysis are given for San Jose, capital of Costa Rica, and Panama City, capital of Panama, respectively. 相似文献
18.
China is prone to highly frequent earthquakes due to specific geographical location, which could cause significant losses to society and economy. The task of seismic hazard analysis is to estimate the potential level of ground motion parameters that would be produced by future earthquakes. In this paper, a novel method based on fuzzy logic techniques and probabilistic approach is proposed for seismic hazard analysis (FPSHA). In FPSHA, we employ fuzzy sets for quantification of earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance, and fuzzy inference rules for ground motion attenuation relationships. The membership functions for earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance are provided based on expert judgments, and the construction of fuzzy rules for peak ground acceleration relationships is also based on expert judgment. This methodology enables to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the process of seismic hazard analysis. The advantage of the proposed method is in its efficiency, reliability, practicability, and precision. A case study is investigated for seismic hazard analysis of Kunming city in Yunnan Province, People’s Republic of China. The results of the proposed fuzzy logic-based model are compared to other models, which confirms the accuracy in predicting the probability of exceeding a certain level of the peak ground acceleration. Further, the results can provide a sound basis for decision making of disaster reduction and prevention in Yunnan province. 相似文献
19.
Iranian strong motion records as well as detailed conditions of their instrument sites and the characteristics of their causative seismic sources are compiled and processed. The dataset consists of 2286 three-component records from 461 Iranian earthquakes with at least two high-quality records having moment magnitude from 3.9 to 7.3. These records are about 20% of the Iranian database and are suitable for seismic hazard analysis and engineering applications. Perhaps for the first time in the literature, the distance to the surface projection of the fault is reported for a great number of records corresponding to earthquakes with M > 6.0. The raw accelerations are processed using the wavelet de-noising method. Having corrected and filtered these raw data, the pseudospectral accelerations are calculated for each of the three components of time series, separately. In addition to the ground motion parameters, a large and comprehensive list of metadata characterizing the recording conditions of each record is also developed. Moreover, careful revision of the characteristics of the earthquakes such as location, magnitude, style of faulting and fault rupture plane geometry, if available, is carried out using the best available information in a scientifically sound manner. Finally, we also focus on special ground motion records including records with peak ground acceleration (PGA) >300 cm/s2 and distances less than 30 km. These are “exceptional” records in the Iranian dataset and include less than 2% of the selected dataset. 相似文献
20.
This article presents probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of northern Pakistan region carried out to produce macro-seismic hazard maps for the region that define new regional ground motion design parameters for 95-, 475-, 975- and 2475-year return period earthquakes as regional contour maps and horizontal uniform hazard at important cities. The Cornell–McGuire approach (Cornell in Bull Seismol Soc Am 58(05):1583–1606, 1968; McGuire in FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis. US Geological Survey, Open file Report, 76-6768, 1976) is used to carry out the analyses at 0.1° rectangular grid. The seismotectonic model of the region used in analysis consists of shallow and deep area zones differentiated based on the focal depths of the earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue compiled and used in the analysis is a composite catalogue composed of 19,373 events. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used are calibrated using goodness-of-fitness measures and visual inspection with local strong motion data. Epistemic uncertainty in the GMPEs is taken into account through the logic tree approach. Comparison of ground motions due to deep earthquakes is made for the first time for the region. The comparison between ground motion due to shallow and deep earthquakes indicates that the seismic hazard would be underestimated if the deep earthquakes are excluded. Ground motion values obtained in this study considering all the earthquakes suggest ground motions are dominant towards the north east of the region. The proposed study indicates that the ground motion hazard values suggested by the current Building Code of Pakistan underestimate the seismic hazard. Final results of this study are in close agreement with the recent studies on the region. 相似文献