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1.
The study demonstrates the importance, in general, of adopting a geographical (integral) approach and local analysis to determine flood risk in small Mediterranean basins, where normally there is no surface runoff. At the same time, it highlights the possibilities afforded by a post-flood study. More specifically, the study seeks to identify the factors that aggravated the impact of the extreme flood event in the tourist town of Calpe (Alicante, Spain) on 12 October 2007.Our results stress the high volume of discharge that can be generated by small basins in the Mediterranean following intense rainfall events that may exceed 200 mm/day. For the 4.6 km2 drainage network studied here, we calculate a maximum discharge of 143 m3/s, for a return period of 500 years. This natural risk (high potential discharge in what are usually dry basins) is exacerbated by the socio-economic transformations that have taken place along the Mediterranean coast. The expansion of urban land use has increased vulnerability to flooding in highly attractive tourist zones that are now at high risk of flooding. The municipal area recognised as presenting a class “2” qualitative vulnerability (on a scale from 1 to 6, where 1 is the most vulnerable) rose from 1% to 34% between 1956 and 2002. Changes to the basins and the traditional drainage systems in endorheic zones have also increased vulnerability to flood events. For example, the area occupied by the mouth of the main basin analysed here has fallen from 2.4 ha in 1956 to just 0.7 ha in 2002.The study’s main conclusions point to the need to introduce hydrological monitoring networks in small drainage systems in ephemeral river basins. It also stresses the importance of implementing structural actions to facilitate surface runoff discharge. In the mid-to-long term we conclude that there should be a declassification of urban land use zones at high risk of flooding. Moreover, detailed (local) studies which adopt an integral approach in their post-flood analyses should be undertaken to identify levels of flood risk and the appropriate land use regulations required.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT. Meteorological tsunamis, or meteo‐tsunamis, are long‐period waves that possess tsunami characteristics but are meteorological in origin, although they are not storm surges. In this article we investigate the coast of southern Britain‐the English Channel, the Bristol Channel, and the Severn Estuary‐for the occurrence of tsunami‐like waves that, in the absence of associated seismic activity, we recognize as meteo‐tsunamis. The passage of squall lines over the sea apparently generated three of these events, and two seem to have been far‐traveled, long‐period waves from mid‐North Atlantic atmospheric low‐pressure systems. The remaining three wave events appear to have been associated with storms that, among possible explanations, may have induced large‐amplitude standing waves‐such as seiches‐or created long‐period waves through the opposition of onshore gale‐force winds and swells with high ebb tidal current velocities. This coastal hazard has resulted in damage and loss of life and should be considered in future coastal defense strategies and in beachuser risk assessments.  相似文献   

3.
Assessing coastal vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) at local and regional scales is a fundamental step for designing successful long-term coastal management plans. This study was thus designed to assess Kuwait coastal vulnerability to SLR at four scenarios (.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 m). Potential inundated areas and the number of people at risk were estimated based on these SLR scenarios. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) map of Kuwait was then computed based on the lowest scenario using eight parameters: elevation, coastal slope, geomorphology, distance to 20-m isobath, population, land use, cultural heritage and transportation. The geographic distribution of inundated areas at an SLR of .5 m revealed that the northern islands of Kuwait and coastal areas along Kuwait Bay would be highly impacted, whereas the coastal area near Shuaibah Port was the most influenced among the southern coasts. Most of the coastal area exhibited a moderate vulnerability to SLR, especially the northern islands. This study presented an initial vulnerability assessment for Kuwait coasts to SLR, which can be extended with more variables. The integrated remote sensing and geographic information system methodology demonstrated in this study can be applied in similar studies elsewhere.  相似文献   

4.
Investigating survivors' behaviour prior to, during and after a disaster provides emergency management agencies with greater understanding of the complexities which influence public response. This information can then be used to develop better community-based disaster risk-reduction strategies. In this paper, we review three post-tsunami disaster case studies: the Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) on 26 December 2004, the Java tsunami on 17 July 2006 and the South Pacific tsunami on 29 September 2009. The 2004 IOT and 2006 Java tsunami surveys involved delayed-response post-disaster research using video interviewing. The 2009 South Pacific tsunami entailed rapid-response post-disaster research using questionnaire interviews. We highlight the major outcomes of each case study and, based on these, make recommendations for improving tsunami education programs in Australia. These include educating the public about tsunami risk, natural warning signs of tsunamis and regionally specific behavioural response. To help facilitate improvements to future post-disaster research, discussion on survey-related issues from each case study is provided.  相似文献   

5.
城市暴雨内涝情景模拟与灾害风险评估   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  
Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hot-spots in disaster research.However,up until now,urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes.This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research,which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China.As an example,we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing’an District of Shanghai.Based on the basic concept of disaster risk,this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods.Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure,we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments.A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach,including an urban terrain model,an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model,was applied to simulate inundation area and depth.Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys,which were further applied to analyse vulnerability,exposure and loss assessment.Finally,the ex-ceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities.A framework was also devel-oped for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss.This is a new explora-tion for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.  相似文献   

6.
Globally, many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. Indicator-based vulnerability approaches are flexible and can be adjusted to the different hazards as well as to specific user needs. In this paper, an indicator-based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context. The resulting multi-hazard version of the PTVA consists of four steps: the identification of the study area and relevant hazards as well as the acquisition of hazard information, the determination of vulnerability indicators and collection of data, the weighting of factors and vulnerability assessment and finally, the consideration of hazard interactions. After the introduction of the newly developed methodology a pilot application is carried out in the Faucon municipality located in the Barcelonnette basin, Southern French Alps. In this case study the vulnerability of buildings to debris flows, shallow landslides and river flooding for emergency planning and for general risk reduction purposes is assessed. The implementation of the methodology leads to reasonable results indicating the vulnerable buildings and supporting the priority setting of different end-users according to their objectives. The constraints of the presented methodology are: a) the fact that the method is not hazard-intensity specific, thus, vulnerability is measured in a rather qualitative and relative way and b) the high amount of data required for its performance. However, the advantage is that it is a flexible method which can be applied for the vulnerability analysis in a multi-hazard context but also it can be adjusted to the user-specific needs to support decision-making.  相似文献   

7.
The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km2) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m2) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.  相似文献   

8.
Morphological analysis of the Fortore River coastal plain and the Lesina Lake coastal barrier integrated with radiocarbon age data indicates that the evolution of the coastal landscape has been strongly affected by a number of strong earthquakes and related tsunamis which occurred during the last 3000 years. The first seismic event struck this coastal area in the V century BC. It produced strong erosion of the Fortore River coastal plain and significant emersion of Punta delle Pietre Nere, as well as the large tsunami responsible for the development of the Sant'Andrea washover fan. The second event occurred in 493 AD; it induced severe erosion of the Fortore River coastal plain and triggered the large tsunami that hit the Lesina Lake coastal barrier, producing the Foce Cauto washover fan. Then later in 1627, an earthquake was responsible for the further coseismic uplift of Punta delle Pietre Nere, the subsidence of Lesina village area and the development of a tsunami which produced two washover fans.Morphological analysis points out that seismic events strong enough to control the morphological evolution of local coastal landscapes show a statistical return period of about 1000 years. These major events produced important coseismic vertical movements and large tsunamis. However, the correct identification of the tectonic structure responsible for the generation of these strong earthquakes is still an unsolved problem.  相似文献   

9.
杨新军  张慧  王子侨 《地理科学》2015,35(8):952-959
人地系统及其脆弱性是地理学研究的核心内容。近年来,脆弱性研究对象逐渐由生态系统转变到人地耦合系统即社会-生态系统,由于该耦合系统具有多尺度扰动和多利益主体并存的特点,且易受不确定性的干扰,目前关于系统脆弱性评价方法难以解释系统的不确定性。选择榆中县中连川乡作为研究区域,尝试将社会与生态环境信息结合起来进行脆弱性研究。首先运用情景分析方法,确定当地社会-生态系统未来的情景变化的关键驱动力为干旱气候和政府决策,筛选出在两者组合下系统未来情景概率较高的3种情景S1（干旱减缓,有政策支持）,S2（干旱缓解,无政策支持）和S3（干旱加剧,有政策支持）。通过实地调查,对多利益主体（农户、管理者和科研工作者）进行情景访谈,对不同利益主体对不同情景的可接受程度进行测度,结合社会-生态矩阵分析,得到不同利益主体对系统未来的可接受程度,以此判断利益主体在未来变化情景下的脆弱度。结果显示,在S1情景下,当地农民和管理者的脆弱性较低;在S2和S3情景下,当地农民和管理者的可接受度是负向的,表明其脆弱性增加,干旱加剧是影响当地未来发展的决定因素,政策支持在一定程度上弥补干旱带来的消极影响。根据不同利益主体的态度,提出未来当地发展的相关政策建议。  相似文献   

10.
以福建泰宁县城区为例,基于PGIS 和概率（情景）风险分析方法,开展社区尺度的洪涝灾害风险研究。利用1949-2011年13 次历史洪灾资料,计算了洪水的强度—超越概率,得出大于洪峰流量2929.18 m3/s 和洪峰水位281.50 m的年超越概率为1.6%。在此情景下,县城淹没面积达1.3 km2（占总面积31.0%）,最大淹没深度超过3.5 m,最长淹没时间超过10小时,共有1846 幢建筑物（占全部建筑的42.2%）受影响。分别针对受灾区域房屋建筑、住宅室内财产和商户室内财产,建立灾损方程,评估损失价值,并绘制灾损地图。结果表明,洪涝灾害对社区造成的影响显著,有必要制定应急预案,建立早期预警等进行防灾降险。  相似文献   

11.
杨佩国  靳京  赵东升  李静 《地理科学》2016,36(5):733-741
基于历史暴雨洪涝灾情数据构建脆弱性曲线,定量研究北京市在不同降雨量下的宏观脆弱性。分析显示,在现有的抗灾能力下,相同降雨量所导致的农作物受灾率值最高,死亡失踪率值最低;随着最大2 d降雨量增大,承灾体的损失率增加明显,当最大2 d降雨量重现周期达到百年一遇时,在现有的社会经济暴露状况下,受灾人口数将达到147.4万人,死亡失踪人数也将有可能达到50人左右,农作物受灾面积有可能达到7万hm2,倒塌和损坏房屋将可能达到60万间,直接经济损失可能超过400亿元。北京市的洪涝灾害风险管理力度还有待加强。  相似文献   

12.
This study presents estimates of the impact adaptation costs due to damage to coastal and marine structures located along the Mediterranean coast of Israel caused by sea-level rise in the 21st century. The study examines the effects on various types of constructions, including seaports, power plants, marinas, desalination plants, sea walls, detached breakwaters, and bathing beach infrastructures for sea-level rises of 0.5 m and 1 m. To this end, we conduct an analysis of hydrodynamic forces on the structures and an uncertainty analysis of their occurrence. The study find that the impact of wave overtopping of breakwaters can lead to extensive damage to port infrastructure and to the vessels moored inside. Adaptation costs are computed as the corrective measures to be taken to maintain the functionality of the structures.  相似文献   

13.
基于PGIS方法,以上海市杨浦区富禄里居委地区为案例,开展给定概率下的社区台风风险分析。结果表明,近60 a影响上海市区的台风中,最大风速大于17.2 m/s的超越概率(AEP)为12%。在此情景下,共有52幢建筑物(占全部建筑物的15.3%)有台风大风损失。上海市区最大的一次台风过程雨量达306.5 mm,其超越概率为1.8%。在该情景下,研究区地面积水最深处达0.61 m,有115幢建筑物(占全部建筑物的33.8%)有经济损失。在上述情景下,台风大风与过程雨量造成的损失对当地居民尚属可接受风险范围。  相似文献   

14.
Low-lying atoll islands appear highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and extreme natural events. Potentially disastrous effects of future sea-level rise have been inferred in many studies, and the actual impacts of tropical storms on island destruction and formation have been well documented. In contrast, the role of tsunami in the geomorphic development of atoll islands has not been investigated. The Sumatran earthquake of 26 December 2004 generated a tsunami that reached the Maldives 2500 km away, with waves up to 2.5 m high. Observations on the geomorphic changes resulting from the tsunami are detailed here, based on pre-and post-tsunami profile measurements of island, beach and reef topography, and GPS surveys of the planform shape of islands and beaches of 11 uninhabited islands in South Maalhosmadulu atoll, Maldives. Erosional and depositional impacts were observed on all islands and these have been quantified. In general the changes were of a minor nature with a maximum reduction in island area of 9% and average of 3.75%. Rather, the tsunami accentuated predictable seasonal oscillations in shoreline change, including localised erosion reflected in fresh scarps and seepage gullies. Depositional features in the form of sand sheets and sand lobes emplaced on the vegetated island surfaces provide clear evidence that the tsunami waves washed over parts of all the islands. Both erosional scarps and overwash deposits were concentrated at the tsunami-exposed eastern sides of the islands. Impacts on leeward shores were primarily accretionary, in the form of spit and cuspate foreland extension. Whereas the nature and magnitude of intra-and inter-island impacts was variable, an east to west decline in aggregate effects was noted. Detailed consideration of the morphodynamic interaction between the tsunami waves and island morphology, show that this cross-atoll gradient resulted not just from the reduction in tsunami energy as it passed through the atoll, but also from variations in elevation of the encircling island ridge, and the quantity and distribution of sediment in the antecedent beach. A conceptual model identifying the sequence of changes to individual islands supports the observational data and the pattern of geomorphic changes resulting from the tsunami. This model leads to consideration of the longer-term impacts of the tsunami on the future stability of islands. Four scenarios are presented, each of which has a different island-beach sediment budget, and different relaxation time to achieve dynamic equilibrium.  相似文献   

15.
The Mjølnir impact crater in the Norwegian Barents Sea features among the 20 largest impact craters listed in the Earth Impact Database. The impact is dated to 142 ± 2.6 Ma, corresponding closely to the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary in the Boreal stratigraphy. Multidisciplinary studies carried out over the last three decades have suggested that the up to 40 km wide crater was created by a 1–3 km diameter impactor colliding with a shallow epicontinental sea, causing regional havoc and a regional ecological crisis that followed in its wake. Only minor evidence for the consequences of the impact for the surrounding depositional basins has been documented so far. This study describes a large submarine slump penetrated by hydrocarbon exploration well 7121/9-1, located in the southern Hammerfest Basin and approximately 350 km away from the impact site. The slump is dated by a black shale drape, which contains characteristic impact-related biotic assemblages and potential ejecta material. This precise dating enables us to associate the slump with large-scale fault movements and footwall collapse along the basin-bounding Troms-Finnmark Fault Complex, which we conclude were caused by shock waves from the Mjølnir impact and the passage of associated tsunami trains. The draping black shale is interpreted to represent significant reworking of material from the contemporary seabed by tsunamis and currents set up by the impact.  相似文献   

16.
In the Mediterranean area, forest fires have become a first-order environmental problem. Increased fire frequency progressively reduces ecosystem recovery periods. The fire season, usually followed by torrential rains in autumn, intensifies erosion processes and increases desertification risk. In this work, the effect of repeated experimental fires on soil response to water erosion is studied in the Permanent Field Station of La Concordia, Valencia, Spain. In nine 80 m2 plots (20 m long × 4 m wide), all runoff and sediment produced were measured after each rainfall event. In 1995, two fire treatments with the addition of different biomass amounts were applied. Three plots were burned with high fire intensity, three with moderate intensity, and three were unburned to be used as control. In 2003, the plots with the fire treatments were burned again with low fire intensities. During the 8-year interval between fires, plots remained undisturbed, allowing regeneration of the vegetation–soil system. Results obtained during the first 5 months after both fire experiments show the high vulnerability of the soil to erosion after a repeated fire. For the burned plots, runoff rates increased three times more than those of 1995, and soil losses increased almost twice. The highest sediment yield (514 g m− 2) was measured in 2003, in the plots of the moderate fire intensity treatment, which yielded only 231 g m− 2 of sediment during the corresponding period in 1995. Runoff yield from the control plots did not show significant temporal changes, while soil losses decreased from 5 g m− 2 in the first post-fire period to 0.7 g m− 2 in the second one.  相似文献   

17.
A Cascadia subduction-zone earthquake has the potential to generate tsunami waves which would impact more than 1000 km of coastline on the west coast of the United States and Canada. Although the predictable extent of tsunami inundation is similar for low-lying land throughout the region, human use of tsunami-prone land varies, creating variations in community exposure and potential impacts. To better understand such variations, land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery (e.g., 30-m-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery) was coupled with tsunami-hazard information to describe tsunami-prone land along the Oregon coast. Land-cover data suggest that 95% of the tsunami-prone land in Oregon is undeveloped and is primarily wetlands and unconsolidated shores. Based on Spearman rank correlation coefficients (rs), correlative relationships are strong and statistically significant (p < 0.05) between city-level estimates of the amount of land-cover pixels classified as developed (impervious cover greater than 20%) and the amount of various societal assets, including residential and employee populations, homes, businesses, and tax-parcel values. Community exposure to tsunami hazards, described here by the amount and relative percentage of developed land in tsunami-prone areas, varies considerably among the 26 communities of the study area, and these variations relate to city size. Correlative relationships are strong and significant (p < 0.05) for community exposure rankings based on land-cover data and those based on aggregated socioeconomic data. In the absence of socioeconomic data or community-based knowledge, the integration of hazards information and land-cover information derived from midresolution remotely-sensed imagery to estimate community exposure may be a useful first step in understanding variations in community vulnerability to regional hazards.  相似文献   

18.
We study how the tsunami mode is generated by a scaled double-couple seismic source, and how it propagates in realistic oceanic models. The method developed and used is the direct extension to tsunami waves propagating in multilayered oceanic media of the well-known Haskell method. The most intensive tsunamis may be expected from sources located within the crust in the deep-water parts of the ocean. The extension to laterally heterogeneous structures shows that, if the thickness of the ocean liquid layer diminishes, the maximum amplitude of the tsunami wave train increases.  相似文献   

19.
Soil erosion by water (WSE) has become a relevant issue at the Mediterranean level. In particular, natural conditions and human impact have made the Calabria (southern Italy) particularly prone to intense WSE. The purpose of this investigation is to identify areas highly affected by WSE in Calabria by comparing the scenarios obtained by assuming control and preventive measures and actions, as well as actual conditions generated by forest fires, also in the presence of conditions of maximum rainfall erosion.Geographic Information System techniques have been adopted to treat data of reasonable spatial resolution obtained at a regional scale for application to the RUSLE model. This work is based on the comparison of such data with a basic scenario that has been defined by the present situation (present scenario). In this scenario: (i) R has been assessed by means of an experimental relation adjusted to Calabria on the basis of 5-min observations; (ii) K has been drawn from the soil map of Calabria including 160 soilscapes; (iii) LS has been estimated according to the RUSLE2 model by using (among other subfactors) a 40-m square cell DTM; (iv) C has been derived by processing the data inferred from the project Corine Land Cover, whose legend includes 35 different land uses on three levels; and (v) P has been hypothesized as equal to 1.For the remaining three hypothesized scenarios, the RUSLE factors have been adjusted according to experimental data and to data in the literature. In particular, forest areas subject to fire have been randomly generated as far as fire location, extension, structure, and intensity are concerned.The values obtained by the application of the RUSLE model have emphasized that land management by means of measures and actions for reducing WSE causes a notable reduction of the erosive rate decreasing from ~30 to 12.3 Mg ha− 1 y− 1. On the other hand, variations induced by hypothetical wildfires in forests on 10% of the regional territory bring WSE over the whole region to values varying from 30 to 116 Mg ha− 1 y− 1.This study can be offered to territorial planning authorities as an evaluation instrument as it highlights the merits and limitations of some territorial management actions. In fact, in Calabria no observations exist concerning the implications of these actions.  相似文献   

20.
A quantitative procedure for mapping landslide risk is developed from considerations of hazard, vulnerability and valuation of exposed elements. The approach based on former work by the authors, is applied in the Bajo Deba area (northern Spain) where a detailed study of landslide occurrence and damage in the recent past (last 50 years) was carried out. Analyses and mapping are implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS).The method is based on a susceptibility model developed previously from statistical relationships between past landslides and terrain parameters related to instability. Extrapolations based on past landslide behaviour were used to calculate failure frequency for the next 50 years. A detailed inventory of direct damage due to landslides during the study period was carried out and the main elements at risk in the area identified and mapped. Past direct (monetary) losses per type of element were estimated and expressed as an average ‘specific loss’ for events of a given magnitude (corresponding to a specified scenario). Vulnerability was assessed by comparing losses with the actual value of the elements affected and expressed as a fraction of that value (0–1).From hazard, vulnerability and monetary value, risk was computed for each element considered. Direct risk maps (€/pixel/year) were obtained and indirect losses from the disruption of economic activities due to landslides assessed. The final result is a risk map and table combining all losses per pixel for a 50-year period. Total monetary value at risk for the Bajo Deba area in the next 50 years is about 2.4 × 106 Euros.  相似文献   

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