共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
We have used time-delay feed-forward neural networks to compute the geomagnetic-activity index Dst one hour ahead from a temporal sequence of solar-wind data. The input data include solar-wind density n, velocity V and the southward component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field. Dst is not included in the input data. The networks implement an explicit functional relationship between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbance, including both direct and time-delayed non-linear relations. In this study we especially consider the influence of varying the temporal size of the input-data sequence. The networks are trained on data covering 6600 h, and tested on data covering 2100 h. It is found that the initial and main phases of geomagnetic storms are well predicted, almost independent of the length of the input-data sequence. However, to predict the recovery phase, we have to use up to 20 h of solar-wind input data. The recovery phase is mainly governed by the ring-current loss processes, and is very much dependent on the ring-current history, and thus also the solar-wind history. With due consideration of the time history when optimizing the networks, we can reproduce 84% of the Dst variance. 相似文献
2.
A superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic storms has been undertaken. The storms are categorised via their intensity (as defined by the Dst index). Storms have also been classified here as either storm sudden commencements (SSCs) or storm gradual commencements (SGCs, that is all storms which did not begin with a sudden commencement). The prevailing solar wind conditions defined by the parameters solar wind speed (vsw), density (sw) and pressure (Psw) and the total field and the components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during the storms in each category have been investigated by a superposed epoch analysis. The southward component of the IMF, appears to be the controlling parameter for the generation of small SGCs (-100 nT< minimum Dst\leq-50 nT for\geq4 h), but for SSCs of the same intensity solar wind pressure is dominant. However, for large SSCs (minimum Dst\leq-100 nT for \geq4 h) the solar wind speed is the controlling parameter. It is also demonstrated that for larger storms magnetic activity is not solely driven by the accumulation of substorm activity, but substantial energy is directly input via the dayside. Furthermore, there is evidence that SSCs are caused by the passage of a coronal mass ejection, whereas SGCs result from the passage of a high speed/ slow speed coronal stream interface. Storms are also grouped by the sign of Bz during the first hour epoch after the onset. The sign of Bz at t=+1 h is the dominant sign of the Bz for \sim24 h before the onset. The total energy released during storms for which Bz was initially positive is, however, of the same order as for storms where Bz was initially negative. 相似文献
3.
Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data with the use of a neural network 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
An artificial feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer and error back-propagation learning is used to predict the geomagnetic activity index (Dst) one hour in advance. The Bz-component and
4.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2007,69(15):1851-1863
Geomagnetic storms are large disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere caused by enhanced solar wind–magnetosphere energy transfer. One of the main manifestations of a geomagnetic storm is the ring current enhancement. It is responsible for the decrease in the geomagnetic field observed at ground stations. In this work, we study the ring current dynamics during two different levels of magnetic storms. Thirty-three events are selected during the period 1981–2004. Eighteen out of 33 events are very intense (or super-intense) magnetic storms (Dst ⩽−250 nT) and the remaining are intense magnetic storms (−250<Dst ⩽−100 nT). Interplanetary data from spacecraft in the solar wind near Earth's orbit (ACE, IMP-8, ISEE-3) and geomagnetic indices (Dst and Sym-H) are analyzed. Our aim is to evaluate the interplanetary characteristics (interplanetary dawn–dusk electric field, interplanetary magnetic field component BS), the ε parameter, and the total energy input into the magnetosphere (Wε) for these two classes of magnetic storms. Two corrections on the ε energy coupling function are made: the first one is an already known correction in the magnetopause radius to take into account the variation in the solar wind pressure. The second correction on the Akasofu parameter, first proposed in this work, accounts for the reconnection efficiency as a function of the solar wind ram pressure. Geomagnetic data/indices are also employed to study the ring current dynamics and to search for the differences in the storm evolution during these events. Our corrected ε parameter is shown to be more adequate to explain storm energy balance because the energy input and the energy dissipated in the ring current are in better agreement with modern estimates as compared with previous works. For super-intense storms, the correction of the Akasofu ε is on average a scaling factor of 3.7, whilst for intense events, this scaling factor is on average 3.4. The injected energy during the main phase using corrected ε can be considered a criterion to separate intense from very intense storms. Other possibilities of cutoff values based on the energy input are also investigated. A threshold value for the input energy is much more clear when a new classification on Dst=−165 nT is considered. It was found that the energy input during storms with Dst<−165 nT is double of the energy for storms with Dst>−165 nT. 相似文献
5.
6.
In this paper we reanalyse the set of ten major geomagnetic storms which occurred between August 1978 and December 1979. We relate them to the characteristics of the solar wind disturbances which caused them and the solar sources of such disturbances as tracked by means of interplanetary scintillation. It seems to us that the shock causing the sudden commencement and the plasma behind it with an important long-lasting Bz south component (Bz 相似文献
7.
Geomagnetic storms and substorms develop under strong control of the solar wind. This is demonstrated by the fact that the geomagnetic activity indices Dst and AE can be predicted from the solar wind alone. A consequence of the strong control by a common source is that substorm and storm indices tend to be highly correlated. However, a part of this correlation is likely to be an effect of internal magnetospheric processes, such as a ring-current modulation of the solar wind-AE relation. The present work extends previous studies of nonlinear AE predictions from the solar wind. It is examined whether the AE predictions are modulated by the Dst index.This is accomplished by comparing neural network predictions from Dst and the solar wind, with predictions from the solar wind alone. Two conclusions are reached: (1) with an optimal set of solar-wind data available, the AE predictions are not markedly improved by the Dst input, but (2) the AE predictions are improved by Dst if less than, or other than, the optimum solar-wind data are available to the net. It appears that the solar wind-AE relation described by an optimized neural net is not significantly modified by the magnetosphere’s Dst state. When the solar wind alone is used to predict AE, the correlation between predicted and observed AE is 0.86, while the prediction residual is nearly uncorrelated to Dst. Further, the finding that Dst can partly compensate for missing information on the solar wind, is of potential importance in operational forecasting where gaps in the stream of real time solar-wind data are a common occurrence. 相似文献
8.
Atmospheric gravity waves, detected over Kiruna (67.8°N, 20.4°E) during geomagnetic storms, are presented and analysed. The data include direct measurements of the OI 630.0 nm emission line intensity, the x-component of the local geomagnetic field and thermospheric (meridional and zonal) wind velocities derived from the OI 630.0 nm Doppler shift observed with an imaging Fabry-Perot interferometer (IFPI). A low pass band filter technique was used to determine short-period variations in the thermospheric meridional wind velocities observed during geomagnetic storms. These short-period variations in the meridional wind velocities, which are identified as due to gravity waves, are compared to the corresponding variations observed in the OI 630.0 nm emission line intensity, x-component of the local geomagnetic field and the location of the auroral electrojet. A cross-correlation analysis was used to calculate the propagation velocities of the observed gravity waves. 相似文献
9.
Dependence of geomagnetic activity during magnetic storms on the solar wind parameters for different types of streams 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The dependence of the maximal values of the |Dst| and AE geomagnetic indices observed during magnetic storms on the value of the interplanetary electric field (E
y
) was studied based on the catalog of the large-scale solar wind types created using the OMNI database for 1976–2000 [Yermolaev
et al., 2009]. An analysis was performed for eight categories of magnetic storms caused by different types of solar wind streams:
corotating interaction regions (CIR, 86 storms); magnetic clouds (MC, 43); Sheath before MCs (ShMC, 8); Ejecta (95); Sheath (ShE, 56); all ICME events (MC + Ejecta, 138); all compression regions Sheaths before MCs and Ejecta (ShMC + ShE, 64); and an indeterminate type of storm (IND, 75). It was shown that the |Dst| index value increases with increasing electric field E
y
for all eight types of streams. When electric fields are strong (E
y
> 11 mV m−1), the |Dst| index value becomes saturated within magnetic clouds MCs and possibly within all ICMEs (MC + Ejecta). The AE index value during magnetic storms is independent of the electric field value E
y
for almost all streams except magnetic clouds MCs and possibly the compressed (Sheath) region before them (ShMC). The AE index linearly increases within MC at small values of the electric field (E
y
< 11 mV m−1) and decrease when these fields are strong (E
y
> 11 mV m−1). Since the dynamic pressure (Pd) and IMF fluctuations (σB) correlate with the E
y
value in all solar wind types, both geomagnetic indices (|Dst| and AE) do not show an additional dependence on Pd and IMF δB. The nonlinear relationship between the intensities of the |Dst| and AE indices and the electric field E
y
component, observed within MCs and possibly all ICMEs during strong electric fields E
y
, agrees with modeling the magnetospheric-ionospheric current system of zone 1 under the conditions of the polar cap potential
saturation. 相似文献
10.
Regular measurements of the velocity and direction of the horizontal wind in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) region
at a height of ∼95 km have been conducted since 1975 over Eastern Siberia (Badary observatory near Irkutsk), using the spaced-diversity
reception method in the LF range. The accumulated database of measurement results (for more than 20 years, from 1974 to 1996)
makes it possible to get information on the impact on wind in the MLT region from both below (stratospheric warmings) and
above (geomagnetic storms as a consequence of magnetospheric disturbances) with sufficient statistical reliability. Effects
of stratospheric warmings and strong geomagnetic storms in the prevailing wind and amplitude of the semidiurnal tide are evaluated
by the superposed epoch method. It is shown that the effects of stratospheric warmings depend on the type (intensity) of stratospheric
warming and on the phase of quasi-biennial oscillations of the wind in the equatorial stratosphere at the 30 hPa level. The
response of MLT winds to external impacts is different for the 21st and 22nd cycles of solar activity. Effects of geomagnetic
storms (A
p > 100) are manifested in the decrease in the eastward prevailing wind and increase in the semidiurnal tide amplitude. 相似文献
11.
During five intense geomagnetic storms with main phases occurring around local dusk sector, equatorial ionosonde and electrojet data, VHF/UHF scintillation data of Calcutta, and several solar wind parameters are investigated to ascertain the polarity of prompt penetration electric field (PPEF). Abrupt increases in AE, ASY-H and/or sharp decreases in Dst/SYM-H with strong southward IMF Bz may symbolize eastward PPEF to equatorial latitude leading to evolution of density irregularities if the period is associated with arrival and sustenance of large magnetospheric shock compression. On the contrary, westward PPEF is more feasible if the shock reduces suddenly or fluctuates with small values. 相似文献
12.
Different solar wind structures are observed: magnetic clouds (MC), recurrent streams (RS), and regions of their interaction with undisturbed solar wind (Sheath and CIR). Three of these structures, Sheath, CIR, MC, are the sources of geomagnetic storms. We have searched for distinctions in the development of substorm bulges occurring during geomagnetic storms connected with the MC, Sheath and CIR. Solar wind parameters were taken from the Wind spacecraft and the auroral bulge parameters were obtained from the Ultra Violet Imager onboard Polar spacecraft. We determined the dimensions of the auroral bulges, the poleward aurora propagation, and the onset latitude of auroral bulges. It is shown that auroral bulges “geometry” is different for the examined types of storms. In consequence, the ratio between longitudinal and latitudinal sizes is also different. 相似文献
13.
A previous application of extreme-value statistics to the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844–1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868– 1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844–1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily measure of geomagnetic activity over an interval of 150 years. As in the earlier investigation, analytic expressions giving the probabilities of the three greatest storms (extreme values) per solar cycle, as continuous functions of storm magnitude (ad), are obtained by least-squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme-value probability functions. These expressions are used to obtain the statistical characteristics of the extreme values; namely, the mode, median, mean, standard deviation and relative dispersion. Since the Ak index may not provide an entirely homogeneous extension of the aa index, the statistical analysis is performed separately for twelve solar cycles (1868–1993), as well as nine solar cycles (1868–1967). The results are utilized to determine the expected ranges of the extreme values as a function of the number of solar cycles. For fourteen solar cycles, the expected ranges of the daily aa index for the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle decrease monotonically in magnitude, contrary to the situation for the half-daily aa index over nine solar cycles. The observed range of the first extreme daily aa index for fourteen solar cycles is 159–352 nT and for twelve solar cycles is 215–352 nT. In a group of 100 solar cycles the expected ranges are expanded to 137–539 and 177–511 nT, which represent increases of 108% and 144% in the respective ranges. Thus there is at least a 99% probability that the daily aa index willAlso Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK 相似文献
14.
V. I. Degtyarev S. E. Chudnenko I. P. Kharchenko B. Tsegmed B. Xue 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2009,49(8):1208-1217
The relation of the maximal daily average values of the relativistic electron fluxes with an energy higher than 2 MeV, obtained
from the measurements on GOES geostationary satellites, during the recovery phase of magnetic storms to the solar wind parameters
and magnetospheric activity indices has been considered. The parameters of Pc5 and Pi1 geomagnetic pulsations and the relativistic
electron fluxes during the prestorm period and the main phase of magnetic storms have been used together with the traditional
indices of geomagnetic activity (A
E, K
p, D
st). A simple model for predicting relativistic electron fluxes has been proposed for the first three days of the magnetic storm
recovery phase. The predicted fluxes of the outer radiation belt relativistic electrons well correlate with the observed values
(R ∼ 0.8–0.9). 相似文献
15.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2005,67(15):1403-1410
The time separations between events in an extended list of occurrence times may reveal recurrence patterns of predictive and interpretive value. A strategy for extracting the period and amplitude of cyclic or recurrent phenomena from lists of event times is developed and applied to 119 years of geomagnetic storm data. The ensemble of time intervals separating pairs of sudden commencement geomagnetic storms (SSCs) differs significantly from that expected for randomly occurring events, permitting the detection of preferred intervals between event occurrences and a determination of the strength and significance of recurrence patterns. Through 11 sunspot cycles, SSCs show persistent nonrandomness at the solar rotation period and its low multiples. The recurrence period is shorter on descending cycle phase than on the ascending phase. The strength of SSC recurrence near 27 days is comparable on ascending and descending phases, in contrast with the behavior of gradual commencement storms triggered by corotating solar wind streams. 相似文献
16.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2007,69(9):1075-1094
The short-term regional responses of the mesosphere–lower thermosphere (MLT) dynamics over Scandinavia to the exceptionally strong solar storms with their accompanying solar proton fluxes on the Earth in late October 2003 have been investigated using radar measurements at Andenes (69°N, 16°E) and Esrange (68°N, 21°E). Several solar activity storms resulted in solar proton events (SPEs) at this time, but a particularly active period of high proton fluxes occurred between 28 and 31 October 2003. The significant temperature drop (∼25 K), detected by the meteor radar at Andenes at altitude ∼90 km, was in line with the enhancement of the proton fluxes and was caused by the dramatic reduction of the ozone in the high-latitude middle atmosphere monitored by satellite measurements. This exceptionally strong phenomenon in late October 2003 was composed of three geomagnetic storms, with the first one occurring in the daytime of 29 October and the other two storms in the nighttime of 29 and 30 October, respectively. The responses of the prevailing wind and the main tides (24- and 12-h tides) were studied in detail. It was found that the response of the MLT dynamics to the first geomagnetic storm occurring in the daytime and accompanied by solar proton fluxes is very different from those to the second and third geomagnetic storms with onsets during the nighttime. Some physical mechanisms have been suggested in order to explain the observed short-term variability of the MLT dynamics. This case study revealed the impact of the SPEs observed in late October 2003 and the timing of the geomagnetic storms on the MLT neutral wind responses observed over Scandinavia. 相似文献
17.
日冕物质抛射(Coronal Mass Ejection,简称CME)和共转相互作用区(Corotating Interaction Region,简称CIR)是造成日地空间行星际扰动和地磁扰动的两个主要原因,提供了地球磁暴的主要驱动力,进而显著影响地球空间环境.为深入研究太阳风活动及受其主导影响的地磁活动的时间分布特征,本文对大量太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的数据进行了详细分析.首先,采用由NASA OMNIWeb提供的太阳风参数及地磁活动指数的公开数据,通过自主编写matlab程序对第23太阳活动周期(1996-01-01—2008-12-31)的数据包括行星际磁场Bz分量、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压等重要太阳风参数及Dst指数、AE指数、Kp指数等主要的地磁指数进行统计分析,建立了包括269个CME事件和456个CIR事件列表的数据库.采用事例分析法和时间序列叠加法分别对两类太阳活动的四个重要太阳风参数(IMF Bz、太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度、太阳风动压)和三个主要地磁指数(Dst、AE、Kp)进行统计分析,并研究了其统计特征.其次,根据Dst指数最小值确定了第23太阳活动周期内的355个孤立地磁暴事件,并以Dst指数最小值为标准将这些磁暴进一步分类为145个弱磁暴、123个中等磁暴、70个强磁暴、12个剧烈磁暴和5个巨大磁暴.最后,采用时间序列叠加法对不同强度磁暴的太阳风参数和地磁指数进行统计分析.统计分析表明,对于CME事件,Nsw/Pdyn(Nsw表示太阳风质子密度,Pdyn表示太阳风动压)线性拟合斜率一般为正;对于CIR事件,Nsw/Pdyn线性拟合斜率一般为负,这可作为辨别CME和CIR事件的一种有效方法.从平均意义上讲,相较于CIR事件,CME事件有更大的南向IMF Bz分量、太阳风动压Pdyn、AE指数、Kp指数以及更小的Dstmin.一般情况下,CME事件有更大的可能性驱动极强地磁暴.总体而言,对于不同强度的地磁暴,Dst指数的变化呈现出一定的相似性,但随着地磁暴强度的增强,Dst指数衰减的速度变快.CME和CIR事件以及其各自驱动的地磁暴事件有着很多不同,因此,需要将CME事件驱动的磁暴及CIR事件驱动的磁暴分开研究.建立CME、CIR事件及地磁暴的数据库以及获取的统计分析结果,将为深入研究地球磁层等离子体片、辐射带及环电流对太阳活动的响应特征提供有利的帮助. 相似文献
18.
Vivek Gupta 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2009,71(8-9):885-896
We consider five different solar wind structures to study their relative geo-effectiveness in producing major geomagnetic perturbations. Geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters during major storms have been utilized to understand the physical mechanism(s) during the passage of structures with distinct structural and dynamical properties. Attempt has been made to find distinct features of the structures responsible for large-intensity and/or long-duration geomagnetic storms. We search for precursors of major storms that may be useful for space-weather predictions. Average recovery characteristics of storms and the influence of solar wind speed on the recovery have been discussed. 相似文献
19.
The paper analyses the development of the main phase of magnetic storms with Dst ≤ −50 nT, the interplanetary source of which consists of eight types of solar wind streams: magnetic clouds (MC, 17 storms);
corotating interaction regions (CIR, 49 storms); Ejecta (50 storms); compressed region (Sheath) before Ejecta ShE (34 storms); the Sheath before a magnetic cloud ShMC (6 storms); all Sheath before all ICME, ShE + ShMC (40 storms); all ICME, MC + Ejecta (67 storms); and an indeterminate type of stream IND (34 storms). 相似文献
20.
Summary In this work the previous author's results concerning the geomagnetic effect of the interplanetary parameters in dependence on geomagnetic latitude are verified, complemented and presented with better accuracy. Data of 7 intensive storms recorded in 1973–79 at 5 observatories with slight differences in local time and with the appropriate latitude distribution limited by real possibilities have been analysed. Even in these cases the derived values of the constants determining the dependence of storm-time variations of the geomagnetic field upon both the dynamic pressure of the solar wind(P) and the interplanetary electric field(Ey) vary relatively regularly with geomagnetic latitude. The anomaly of Dst and DR-variations from the Almeria Observatory (AE) evident in some intensive storms is pointed out here. Unlike the previous work the time characteristics () of the ring current decay have been studied from the standpoint of the main (m) and recovery (r) phases of the storm. This yields higher values of r as compared to from the above mentioned work. On the other hand, a large decrease in the values of r was observed in some cases at a latitude of about 40°, as in the earlier study. Actually this phenomenon does not occur in all intensive storms as could be expected. As to the investigated storms, m seems to be independent of geomagnetic latitude and much lower in its magnitude than r. 相似文献