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1.
The most recent eruptive cycle of Tungurahua volcano began in May 2004, and reached its highest level of activity in July 2004. This activity cycle is the last one of a series of four cycles that followed the reawakening and major eruption of Tungurahua in 1999. Between June 30 and August 12, 2004, three temporary seismic and infrasonic stations were installed on the flanks of the volcano and recorded over 2,000 degassing events. The events are classified by waveform character and include: explosion events (the vast majority, spanning three orders of pressure amplitudes at 3.5 km from the vent, 0.1–180 Pa), jetting events, and sequences of repetitive infrasonic pulses, called chugging events. Travel-time analysis of seismic first arrivals and infrasonic waves indicates that explosions start with a seismic event at a shallow depth (<200 m), followed ∼1 s later by an out-flux of gas, ash and solid material through the vent. Cluster analysis of infrasonic signals from explosion events was used to isolate four groups of similar waveforms without apparent correlation to event size, location, or time. The clustering is thus associated with source mechanism and probably spatial distribution. Explosion clusters do not exhibit temporal dependence. 相似文献
2.
Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955–2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on the phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996–2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. 相似文献
3.
云计算下采用三点阵次声源定位方法,在自动识别震前震源次声波过程中不能自动筛选识别大量的异常次声波数据,导致震前监测准确度不高且效率低下。因此提出一种云计算环境下震前震源异常次声波自动识别方法,构建JNS异常次声波数据采集筛查模组,全天候实时扫描访问端口,快速反馈异常次声波数据,采用NDS异常次声波数据序列异常检测算法快速识别错误序阵,准确回查、定位和锁定异常次声波数据;利用震前震源异常次声波自动识别方法分类识别异常次声波信号,判断该信号是否是地震可疑信号。实验结果表明,所提方法可有效自动识别震前震源异常次声波信号类型,信号分类准确率最大值达到99.99%;多次识别耗时最大均值仅为1.3min,具有准确率高和效率快的优势。 相似文献
4.
During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO2 gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma. 相似文献
5.
引入非线性动力学理论和混沌时间序列分析方法考察强震地面运动加速度时程的非线性特征。首先采用功率谱分析法、主成份分析法和Cao方法定性判断地震动加速度时程具有混沌特性,然后应用混沌时间序列分析方法定量计算了30条地震动加速度时程的三个非线性特征参数。计算表明,这些地震动时程的关联维数为2．0～4．0的分数维,Kolmogorov熵K2为大于零的有限正值,最大Lyapunov指数在o～i．0之间。结果说明,强震地面运动具有混沌特性,地震动的高度不规则和复杂性是地震过程强非线性的反映。 相似文献
6.
在地震与固体潮台站的日常监测中,常发现有一些异常"脉动"信号叠加在固体潮曲线上.这些异常"脉动"与宽频带数字地震计的观测在时间上同步、一致,其中的一部分由发生在西太平洋上的热带气旋引起,而其他的则大多与强地震相伴随,统称为震颤异常波.本文介绍了华中科技大学的地震与固体潮观测台站(HUST)的概况,报道了该台应用 DZW重力仪和VS-1倾斜仪观测记录到的大量震颤异常波事例.大量观测事实表明:中国固体潮台站记录的震颤异常波,绝大多数只在DZW重力仪和VS-1倾斜仪的低通滤波1 通道(LP1)出现,而在其低通滤波2通道(LP2)和其他固体潮仪器中则罕有发现;震颤异常波的包络线大多呈"纺锤状"或"尾巴状",持续时间多为1~3天. 通过对震颤异常波和固体潮观测仪器的分析研究,得到以下结论:震颤异常波实际上就是一种来源复杂的地球脉动信号,响应范围广泛,可被宽频带数字地震计和固体潮仪器记录.由西太平洋上的热带气旋引起的震颤异常波的主要周期在3~7 s范围,而强震前的震颤异常波则除此外,还包含10~60 s及更长周期的信号.固体潮仪器对震颤异常波响应的差异是因为仪器的传递函数不同和特性所致. DZW重力仪和VS-1倾斜仪分钟值采样数据中的震颤异常波,只是真实信号的一种"混叠"或映射.强震前的震颤异常波是否与地震有关？是否是震兆？尚需做更深入细致的分析和研究. 相似文献
7.
Seismic activity at Stromboli Volcano is characterized by a variety of signals, emanating from three vents. For a long time, the northwest vent has been in constant activity. Periodically, large explosions occur and material is ejected beyond the crater walls. These large explosions are accompanied by sonic and infrasonic pressure waves in the atmosphere, and explosion quakes. Apart from large explosions, there is constant activity in the form of continuous gas bursts which are related to low infrasonic pulses in the atmosphere and volcanic tremor. We assume that volcanic tremor and low pressure infrasonics are generated by gas bubbles inside the volcanic conduit, and accordingly, we compute synthetic tremor by modeling the source function as a pressure variation in a spherical cavity that propagates through a finely layered medium, by means of Haskell's formalism. To simulate a tremor, we superpose in time domain a large number of such pulses of varying amplitudes and time delays, according to the observed infrasonic series. In addition to the spectral similarity, the observed and synthetic tremor display the same autocorrelation and Hurst exponents, implying similar long-term correlation. We present strong evidence in favour of an interpretation of the spectral peaks of the volcanic tremor at Stromboli in terms of resonances of the layered structure, hence, as a path effect rather than a source effect. 相似文献
8.
Z. Vörös 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1994,38(2):168-186
Summary In order to study the nonlinear physical processes connected with substorm activity we analyse time series of local geomagnetic
field variations. The concepts of deterministic chaos and magnetospheric chaotic attractors are examined. The general objective
of this article is to detect low dimensional magnetosphere chaos and to properly interpret it as a consequence of magnetosphere
— ionosphere informational — energetic coupling. 相似文献
9.
In the present study, the deterministic chaotic behaviour of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) under various geomagnetic conditions of low and high solar active periods was analyzed, using the time series of IMF |B| and Bz, by employing chaotic quantifiers like, Lyapunov exponent, Tsallis entropy, correlation dimension, and non-linear prediction error. We have investigated whether the chaotic behaviour of interplanetary magnetic field would modify, when it produces major geomagnetic storms, and how it depends on the phase of solar activity. The yearly average values of Lyapunov exponent for the time series of IMF |B| and Bz, show solar flux dependence, whereas those values of entropy, correlation dimension and non-linear prediction error had no significant solar flux dependence. The yearly average values of entropy for quiet periods are higher compared to those values for major storm periods belonging to low/high solar active conditions, for both the time series |B| and Bz. 相似文献
10.
Rayleigh面波地震背景噪声成像技术已被成功运用到全球范围不同尺度的地球内部结构的研究中,并以背景噪声场是时空均匀分布为前提假设.然而真实的噪声源分布的时空非均匀性将导致经验格林函数提取存在偏差,最终影响噪声成像结果的精准性.近年来,噪声源分布特征研究逐步成为提高噪声成像精准度、深化地震背景噪声成像的关键问题.本文利用频率-波束域分析法对中国西北地区的一个大孔径台阵(WuTan Array,简称WTA)在2014全年的垂直分量连续记录做了聚束分析,研究了Rayleigh波噪声源分布特征.结果显示:WTA台阵成功探测到了10～20s周期范围的来自于全球不同方位的Rayleigh波噪声信号,其源区分布具有明显的季节变化特征:冬季集中分布在北大西洋方位,而夏季则转为印度洋方位噪声信号最强.此外,Rayleigh波噪声源区空间分布还表现出一定的频率依赖性,即在较低频段(0.0488～0.0635Hz)在北大西洋、北太平洋、印度洋及西太平洋四个方位均有分布;而在频率较高频段(0.0928～0.1025Hz)则集中分布于西太平洋方位.Rayleigh波噪声源时空分布特征和频率依赖性与海洋活动本身的季节性变化和频谱特征有关.并初步推测本文所观测到的Rayleigh波是由加剧的海浪运动直接作用于海岸、大陆架或海底而激发产生的第一类地脉动噪声信号. 相似文献
11.
0.003~1 Hz频段的地脉动主要来源于海浪运动与固体地球的耦合作用,台风引起的强烈海浪运动往往可使地脉动能量显著增强.由于涉及大气-海洋-固体地球三个圈层之间的复杂动量传递与耦合过程,迄今为止,关于台风激发地脉动的具体源区位置及激发机制尚存在争议.本文选取日本、中国东南沿海及台湾地区的地震台站波形连续记录,研究了2008年台风"森拉克"和"黑格比"激发地脉动的时频特征,开展相应数值模拟,并与观测数据进行了对比分析研究.结果表明台风激发第二类地脉动存在两种主要模式:(1)近岸源区激发,即台风引起波浪入射至海岸反射并与后续来波相互作用形成驻波作用于海底而激发;(2)台风中心附近源区激发,即台风中心移动过程中不同时期激发的同频率波浪相向传播、相互作用产生驻波作用于海底而激发,源区位置主要集中于台风中心左后方.此外,结合波浪再分析数据、台风风场特征,我们进一步对第二类地脉动激发过程中的影响因素进行了分析,发现:第一种模式激发的地脉动与近岸源区波浪场强度、观测点至源区距离及台风中心至海岸线距离等因素相关;而第二种模式激发的地脉动则主要受台风中心附近波浪场的频率成分与传播方向影响. 相似文献
12.
Nonlinear and multifractal approaches of the geomagnetic field 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
L. Hongre P. Sailhac M. Alexandrescu J. Dubois 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1999,110(3-4):157-190
Recent nonlinear dynamics techniques have been developed to analyse chaotic time series data. We first summarize the procedure which gives an appropriate reconstruction of the unknown dynamics from scalar measurements in a pseudophase space. It permits, firstly, the representation of the trajectories of the dynamical system—they define an attractor when the system is dissipative—by preserving its topological properties. We then present the invariant measures and ergodic quantities such as the multifractal spectrum and Lyapunov exponents which can be estimated on the reconstructed attractor. The multifractal analysis provides us with a characterization of the scaling energy of the process whereas the Lyapunov exponent gives another statistical measure of the stability of the dynamics. The estimation of these quantities was tested on synthetic data. The nonlinear and multifractal analyses were finally applied to the hourly mean values of the magnetic field recorded at the Eskdalemuir (ESK) observatory over 79 years (692,520 data measurements for each component). The estimations of a 5-dimensional pseudo-phase space and a positive Lyapunov exponent confirm the possibility of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in the magnetic field observations at ESK observatory. The correlation between the solar activity (the Wolf number), the unstable nature of the magnetic field, and the singularity spectrum points out the forcing of the solar cycles on the dynamics of the magnetic field at ESK observatory. 相似文献
13.
14.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract Abstract Identification of the presence of scaling in the river flow process has been a challenging problem in hydrology. Studies conducted thus far have viewed this problem essentially from a stochastic perspective, because the river flow process has traditionally been assumed to be a result of a very large number of variables. However, recent studies employing nonlinear deterministic and chaotic dynamic concepts have reported that the river flow process could also be the outcome of a deterministic system with only a few dominant variables. In the wake of such reports, a preliminary attempt is made in this study to investigate the type of scaling behaviour in the river flow process (i.e. chaotic or stochastic). The investigation is limited only to temporal scaling. Flow data of three different scales (daily, 5-day and 7-day) observed in each of three rivers in the USA: the Kentucky River in Kentucky, the Merced River in California and the Stillaguamish River in Washington, are analysed. It is assumed that the dynamic behaviour of the river flow process at these individual scales provides clues about the scaling behaviour between these scales. The correlation dimension is used as an indicator to distinguish between chaotic and stochastic behaviours. The results are mixed with regard to the type of flow behaviour at individual scales and, hence, to the type of scaling behaviour, as some data sets show chaotic behaviour while others show stochastic behaviour. They suggest that characterization (chaotic or stochastic) of river flow should be a necessary first step in any scaling study, as it could provide important information on the appropriate approach for data transformation purposes. 相似文献
15.
Phase Space Structure, Attractor Dimension, Lyapunov Exponent and Nonlinear Prediction from Earth’s Atmospheric Angular Momentum Time Series 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
--On a short time scale, Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) has been demonstrated to be essentially the sole excitation source of LOD variations. The LOD variation, therefore, merely reflects the AAM variation (LOD as proxy for AAM). The study of the nonlinear nature of AAM variability (e.g., its orbital complexity, dimensionality and extreme sensitivity to the initial conditions) may provide a physical premise for theoretical modelling of the earth-atmosphere-ocean system. Analysis of the high quality of detailed daily LOD/AAM variations time series, spanning the period of 1962-1992, reveals a non-zero and low positive Lyapunov exponent value which suggests possible evidence of deterministic chaos in the underlying dynamics. Application of modern nonlinear prediction techniques capable of distinguishing chaos and random fractals to the data set, further support the above findings and render a predictive time limit of approximately 12-15 days. A low dimensional strange attractor and a low average Lyapunov exponent suggest a low level of unpredictability and stability in the system dynamics. It is argued here that a possible source of the raised entropy in LOD/AAM systems possibly stems from a conceivable nonlinear interaction between the seasonal cycle and inter- or intra-annual fluctuations due to thermodynamics properties of the atmosphere-ocean system. 相似文献
16.
In the present study, a digital waveform dataset of 216 local earthquakes recorded by the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) was used to estimate the attenuation of seismic wave energy in the greater Cairo region. The quality factor and the frequency dependence for Coda waves and S-waves were estimated and clarified. The Coda waves (Q c) and S-waves (Q d) quality factor were estimated by applying the single scattering model and Coda Normalization method, respectively, to bandpass-filtered seismograms of frequency bands centering at 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24?Hz. Lapse time dependence was also studied for the area, with the Coda waves analyzed through four lapse time windows (10, 20, 30 and 40?s). The average quality factor as function of frequency is found to be Q c?=?35?±?9f 0.9±0.02 and Q d?=?10?±?2f 0.9±0.02 for Coda and S-waves, respectively. This behavior is usually correlated with the degree of tectonic complexity and the presence of heterogeneities at several scales. The variation of Q c with frequency and lapse time shows that the lithosphere becomes more homogeneous with depth. In fact, by using the Coda Normalization method we obtained low Q d values as expected for a heterogeneous and active zone. The intrinsic quality factor (Q i ?1 ) was separated from the scattering quality factor (Q s ?1 ) by applying the Multiple Lapse Time Domain Window Analysis (MLTWA) method under the assumption of multiple isotropic scattering with uniform distribution of scatters. The obtained results suggest that the contribution of the intrinsic attenuation (Q i ?1 ) prevails on the scattering attenuation (Q s ?1 ) at frequencies higher than 3?Hz. 相似文献
17.
We present results from a detailed analysis of seismic and infrasonic data recorded over a four day period prior to the Vulcanian eruptive event at Sakurajima volcano on May 19, 1998. Nearly one hundred seismic and infrasonic events were recorded on at least one of the nine seismic–infrasonic stations located within 3 km of the crater. Four unique seismic event types are recognized based on the spectral features of seismograms, including weak seismic tremor characterized by a 5–6 Hz peak mode that later shifted to 4–5 Hz. Long-period events are characterized by a short-duration, wide spectral band signal with an emergent, high-frequency onset followed by a wave coda lasting 15–20 s and a fundamental mode of 4.2–4.4 Hz. Values of Q for long-period events range between 10 and 22 suggesting that a gas-rich fluid was involved. Explosive events are the third seismic type, characterized by a narrow spectral band signal with an impulsive high-frequency onset followed by a 20–30 second wave coda and a peak mode of 4.0–4.4 Hz. Volcano-tectonic earthquakes are the fourth seismic type. Prior to May 19, 1998, only the tremor and explosion seismic events are found to have an infrasonic component. Like seismic tremor, infrasonic tremor is typically observed as a weak background signal. Explosive infrasonic events were recorded 10–15 s after the explosive seismic events and with audible explosions prior to May 19. On May 19, high-frequency impulsive infrasonic events occurred sporadically and as swarms within hours of the eruption. These infrasonic events are observed to be coincident with swarms of long-period seismic events. Video coverage during the seismic–infrasonic experiment recorded intermittent releases of gases and ash during times when seismic and acoustic events were recorded. The sequence of seismic and infrasonic events is interpreted as representing a gas-rich fluid moving through a series of cracks and conduits beneath the active summit crater. 相似文献
18.
使用山东遥测台网1994－2000年（ML2.8-4.2级）间75次地震的300多条模拟地震资料和部分数字化资料，1）测定了尾波振幅比和能量比，并估算了山东地区的尾波值和平均自由程，进而试求了吸收品质因子Qi的散射品质因子Qs，得出山东地区地震尾波的衰减主要是由散射所造成；2）检验了用来定量描述尾波振幅随时间衰减状态的参数－－尾波时间熵ST，得出山东地区中强震前尾波时间熵下降是明显的，对中强震的预报效能是可行的。 相似文献
19.
Rahman Khatibi Mohammad Ali Ghorbani Mohammad Taghi Aalami Kasim Kocak Oleg Makarynskyy Dina Makarynska Mahdi Aalinezhad 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(11):1797-1807
Water level forecasting using recorded time series can provide a local modelling capability to facilitate local proactive
management practices. To this end, hourly sea water level time series are investigated. The records collected at the Hillarys
Boat Harbour, Western Australia, are investigated over the period of 2000 and 2002. Two modelling techniques are employed:
low-dimensional dynamic model, known as the deterministic chaos theory, and genetic programming, GP. The phase space, which
describes the evolution of the behaviour of a nonlinear system in time, was reconstructed using the delay-embedding theorem
suggested by Takens. The presence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the phase space reconstruction and correlation
dimension methods, and also the predictability into the future was calculated by the largest Lyapunov exponent to be 437 h
or 18 days into the future. The intercomparison of results of the local prediction and GP models shows that for this site-specific
dataset, the local prediction model has a slight edge over GP. However, rather than recommending one technique over another,
the paper promotes a pluralistic modelling culture, whereby different techniques should be tested to gain a specific insight
from each of the models. This would enable a consensus to be drawn from a set of results rather than ignoring the individual
insights provided by each model. 相似文献
20.
The Theory of Coda Wave Interferometry 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Roel Snieder 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(2-3):455-473
Coda waves are sensitive to changes in the subsurface because the strong scattering that generates these waves causes them
to repeatedly sample a limited region of space. Coda wave interferometry is a technique that exploits this sensitivity to
estimate slight changes in the medium from a comparison of the coda waves before and after the perturbation. For spatially
localized changes in the velocity, or for changes in the source location, the travel-time perturbation may be different for
different scattering paths. The coda waves that arrive within a certain time window are therefore subject to a distribution
of travel-time perturbations. Here I present the general theory of coda wave interferometry, and show how the time-shifted
correlation coefficient can be used to estimate the mean and variance of the distribution of travel-time perturbations. I
show how this general theory can be used to estimate changes in the wave velocity, in the location of scatterer positions,
and in the source location. 相似文献