首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 136 毫秒
1.
Snow is an important part of the cryosphere and plays an important role in the hydrological cycle and energy balance. Study of the spatiotemporal characteristics of snow cover and its change is the prerequisite for analyzing the formation,distribution and variation of runoff from mountains in inland river basins. In this study,we selected the upper reaches of the Taolai River basin of Qilian Mountains as the study area,used down⁃ scaling methods to obtain high-resolution snow depth data,and adopted methods of spatial statistics,sensitivity analysis and contribution separations to quantify snow cover distribution and variation influenced by terrain and the regional climate during the time period from 2002 to 2018. Results showed that basin early average snow depth ranged from 0 cm to 2. 5 cm,with variation from -0. 19 cm·a-1 to 0. 06 cm·a-1. The area of snow depth re⁃ duction during the study period accounted for 68. 30% of the total area. It was found that the snow depth increase more with altitude and less with the increase of slope. Variation of snow depth increased below 2 500 m a. s. l. and decreased above 2 500 m a. s. l. As the slope increases,it first increases and then decreases;the snow depth of each aspect decreases,especially in the northwest orientation. The sensitivity of snow depth to air tempera⁃ ture and solar radiation were found negative in general,while that of the precipitation was found positive. The precipitation in high-altitude areas has a relatively large contribution to the snow depth variation,while in the val⁃ ley areas,the contribution of temperature to snow cover is more significant. This work provides an example for the study of snow dynamics in the upper reaches of inland river watersheds,and benefits model simulation and prediction of mountain runoff and regional water management. © 2023 The Author(s).  相似文献   

2.
The identification of landslide-prone areas is an essential step in landslide hazard assessment and mitigation of landslide-related losses.In this study,we applied two novel deep learning algorithms,the recurrent neural network(RNN)and convolutional neural network(CNN),for national-scale landslide susceptibility mapping of Iran.We prepared a dataset comprising 4069 historical landslide locations and 11 conditioning factors(altitude,slope degree,profile curvature,distance to river,aspect,plan curvature,distance to road,distance to fault,rainfall,geology and land-sue)to construct a geospatial database and divided the data into the training and the testing dataset.We then developed RNN and CNN algorithms to generate landslide susceptibility maps of Iran using the training dataset.We calculated the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and used the area under the curve(AUC)for the quantitative evaluation of the landslide susceptibility maps using the testing dataset.Better performance in both the training and testing phases was provided by the RNN algorithm(AUC=0.88)than by the CNN algorithm(AUC=0.85).Finally,we calculated areas of susceptibility for each province and found that 6%and 14%of the land area of Iran is very highly and highly susceptible to future landslide events,respectively,with the highest susceptibility in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province(33.8%).About 31%of cities of Iran are located in areas with high and very high landslide susceptibility.The results of the present study will be useful for the development of landslide hazard mitigation strategies.  相似文献   

3.
李诺  韩其飞  马英  黄晓东 《冰川冻土》2022,44(6):1740-1747
Snow cover is of great hydrological,ecological,and climatic significance in the Tibetan Plateau. MODIS snow products are widely used at present but are seriously affected by clouds. Scholars at home and abroad have developed a variety of cloud removal products for raw MODIS daily snow products,but the accuracy of these products in the Tibetan Plateau has not been evaluated comprehensively. Therefore,this paper uses Landsat-8 data with high resolution as the reference value to conduct systematic verification of three datasets of cloud-free snow products released on a daily basis. The results show that compared with the two sets of products （M*D10A1GL06 and MODIS_Dysno_Cloudfree）,which are produced based on raw MODIS daily snow cover product realized by NSIDC（National Snow and Ice Data Center）,the MODIS CGF SCE product produced based on MODIS surface reflectance data,has a great advantage in snow identification accuracy. The MODIS CGF SCE product optimized the NDSI threshold for different land cover types. Although the accuracy of snow identification was significantly improved,the problem of large snow identification error in forest areas was still not effectively resolved,and there was a high underestimate error. © 2022 Science Press (China).  相似文献   

4.
Analysis and assessment of landslide susceptibility using 3S technology and mathematical statistical model is still the current hot topics. It is very important for selection of unit and factor and model to the landslide susceptibility assessment reasonably. Tianshui City is selected as the study area which is in the typical regions of Longzhong ecologically vulnerable area. Based on the weights-of-evidence approach（WOE）and two kinds of assessment units（grid-unit,GU,slope-unit,SU）and also two resolutions（30 m,10 m）,a total of four differ⁃ ent data sets（GU30,SU30,GU10,SU10）is established. Then quantitative analysis and contrast assessment di⁃ vision of the loess landslide susceptibility in the study area though selected four kinds of thirteen factors. The re⁃ sults show that stratum lithology,altitude,relief amplitude,roughness and slope are the key control factors of landslide development in the area. The geological factors and topographic factors control and determine the for⁃ mation and development of the landslides in study area. The susceptibility value of stratum lithology is the high⁃ est value. Statistical analysis of susceptibility division is carried out according to the point and area of landslide respectively. The landslide ratio shows that the division based on the slope-unit is higher than that of the grid-unit. Landslide susceptibility area in highest division based on the slope-unit and 10m high resolution is account⁃ ed for the highest. Therefore,it has higher precision in landslide susceptibility analysis and assessment that us⁃ ing the slope-unit and high resolution data. The landslide susceptibility result is consistent with the actual land⁃ slide development in the study area. The division results can also be used for the landslide prevention and control and national spatial planning in the study area. © 2023 Chinese Journal of General Practitioners. All rights reserved.  相似文献   

5.
The current study aimed at evaluating the capabilities of seven advanced machine learning techniques(MLTs),including,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Random Forest(RF),Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline(MARS),Artificial Neural Network(ANN),Quadratic Discriminant Analysis(QDA),Linear Discriminant Analysis(LDA),and Naive Bayes(NB),for landslide susceptibility modeling and comparison of their performances.Coupling machine learning algorithms with spatial data types for landslide susceptibility mapping is a vitally important issue.This study was carried out using GIS and R open source software at Abha Basin,Asir Region,Saudi Arabia.First,a total of 243 landslide locations were identified at Abha Basin to prepare the landslide inventory map using different data sources.All the landslide areas were randomly separated into two groups with a ratio of 70%for training and 30%for validating purposes.Twelve landslide-variables were generated for landslide susceptibility modeling,which include altitude,lithology,distance to faults,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),landuse/landcover(LULC),distance to roads,slope angle,distance to streams,profile curvature,plan curvature,slope length(LS),and slope-aspect.The area under curve(AUC-ROC)approach has been applied to evaluate,validate,and compare the MLTs performance.The results indicated that AUC values for seven MLTs range from 89.0%for QDA to 95.1%for RF.Our findings showed that the RF(AUC=95.1%)and LDA(AUC=941.7%)have produced the best performances in comparison to other MLTs.The outcome of this study and the landslide susceptibility maps would be useful for environmental protection.  相似文献   

6.
Natural hazards in Nordic Countries   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Compared to many areas of the world, the human losses caused by natural hazards are smaller in Nordic countries. This is mainly due to the low population density in the exposed areas. However, the economic losses are significant and the geohazards picture varies among the countries. The predominant natural hazards in Nordic countries are floods, landslides, and, with the exception of Denmark, snow avalanche. Volcanoes and earthquakes are major geohazards in Iceland, and parts of Norway are susceptible to seismic activity. Slidetriggered tsunamis also represent a threat to parts of the coastal areas of Nordic countries and Greenland.  相似文献   

7.
The distribution of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea and adjacent areas is closely related to the structural pattern that helped to define the controlling effect of deep processes on oil-bearing basins.Igneous rocks can record important information from deep processes.Deep structures such as faults,basin uplift and depression,Cenozoic basement and magnetic basement are all the results of energy exchange within the earth.The study of the relationship between igneous rocks and deep structures is of great significance for the study of the South China Sea.By using the minimum curvature potential field separation technique and the correlation analysis technique of gravitational and magnetic anomalies,the fusion of gravitational and magnetic data reflecting igneous rocks can be obtained,through which the igneous rocks with high susceptibility/high density or high susceptibility/low density can be identified.In this study area,igneous rocks do not develop in the Yinggehai basin,Qiongdongnan basin,Zengmu basin and Brunei-Sabah basin whilst igneous rocks with high susceptibility/high density or high susceptibility/low density are widely-developed in other basins.In undeveloped igneous areas,faults are also undeveloped the Cenozoic thickness is greater,the magnetic basement depth is greater and the Cenozoic thickness is highly positively correlated with the magnetic basement depth.In igneously developed regions,the distribution pattern of the Qiongtai block is mainly controlled by primary faults,while the distribution of the Zhongxisha block,Xunta block and Yongshu-Taiping block is mainly controlled by secondary faults,the Cenozoic thickness having a low correlation with the depth of the magnetic basement.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract: The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and geo-hazards triggered by the earthquake caused large injuries and deaths as well as destructive damage for infrastructures like construction, traffic and electricity. It is urgent to select relatively secure areas for townships and cities constructed in high mountainous regions with high magnitude earthquakes. This paper presents the basic thoughts, evaluation indices and evaluation methods of geological security evaluation, water and land resources security demonstration and integrated assessments of geo-environmental suitability for reconstruction in alp and ravine with high magnitude earthquakes, which are applied in the worst-hit areas (12 counties). The integrated assessment shows that: (1) located in the Longmenshan fault zone, the evaluated area is of poor regional crust stability, in which the unstable and second unstable areas account for 79% of the total; (2) the geo-hazards susceptibility is high in the evaluation area. The spots of geo-hazards triggered by earthquake are mainly distributed along the active fault zone with higher distribution in the moderate and high mountains area, in which the areas of high and moderate susceptibility zoning accounts for 40.1% of the total; (3) geological security is poor in the evaluated area, in which the area of the unsuitable construction occupies 73.1%, whereas in the suitable construction area, the areas of geological security, second security and insecurity zoning account for 8.3%, 9.3% and 9.3% of the evaluated area respectively; (4) geo-environmental suitability is poor in the evaluated area , in which the areas of suitability and basic suitability zoning account for 3.5% and 7.3% of the whole evaluation area.  相似文献   

9.
There is a severe phenomenon of blowing snow by wind in winter in Mayitas area of Xinjiang. Road traffic interruptions and casualties caused by wind and snow disasters often occur. The existing engineering measures can alleviate the problems of low visibility and problems with accumulating snow on pavement caused by wind and snow to a certain extent, but cannot completely eliminate the impact. Aiming at the problem that the blowing snow disaster difficult to be completely cured under strong wind conditions, a shed tunnel engineering treatment scheme is proposed, and a wind tunnel simulation experiment is carried out on the shed tunnel form and snow prevention scheme at the entrance of the tunnel. The wind tunnel experimental section is 8 m long, 1. 3 m horizontally wide and 1 m high. The shed tunnel model is made by 1:60 scale 3D printing method, the snow barrier model is made of wooden strips, and the simulation medium is made of fine sand, refined salt and sawdust. Firstly, three kinds of shed structures, including fully enclosed, overhanging and ventilated, were simulated under the condition of 90° wind direction, and compared with the form of blowing snow stacking. Three parameters for similarity were used:density, particle size and stacking shape. The similarity is determined by weighted Euclidean distance between simulation medium and blowing snow, the similarity of the slump angle of the predecessors is verified, and the most suitable medium for simulating blowing snow is deduced. According to the experimental results, combined with the actual situation of wind blowing and snow disasters in Mayitas, flow field of the closed shed tunnel by a wind direction angle of 30° has been separately conducted with or without protective measures. The results show that when the wind tunnel stacking experiment is used to study the deposition state of blowing snow under non-low temperature conditions, the sawdust has good similarity with the blowing snow in the process of wind and snow movement. A large amount of medium was poured into the ventilated shed during the experiment, which proved that its anti-wind and snow performance was not ideal. By contrast, the closed shed and the overhanging shed have better wind and snow prevention effects. The snow barrier has a good blowing snow inhibition function at the entrance. From the stacking experiment, in the comparison with and without snow barrier, volume of the medium in the shed is very different, which proves that the snow barrier can effectively prevent the blowing snow from entering the shed. Among them, the difference in wind speed inside and outside the shed is obvious, which proves that snow barrier can significantly reduce the wind speed outside the shed and has the function of inhibiting the formation of weak wind areas inside the shed. The study has confirmed that the shed tunnel project with suitable snow barrier layout plan for tunnel entrance protection is an effective means to control wind and snow disasters. For highway traffic in Xinjiang, it is a feasible solution to use shed tunnel engineering to control blowing snow disasters. After dealing with the snow deposition at the entrance of shed tunnel, the shed tunnel engineering form of low-cost environment integration and the vehicle operation safety guarantee measures of long-distance shed tunnel are the problems that need to be solved in the future. © 2022 Tianjin Press of Chinese Herbal Medicines. All rights reserved.  相似文献   

10.
The pores in shales are mainly of nanometer-scale, and their pore size distribution is very important for the preservation and exploitation of shale gas. This study focused on the organic-rich Lower Silurian black shale from four wells in the Upper Yangtze Platform, and their TOC, mineralogical composition and pore characterization were investigated. Low pressure N2 and CO2 adsorption were conducted at 77.35 K and 273.15 K, respectively, and the pore structures were characterized by modified Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET), Dubinin-Radushkevich (DR), t-plot, Barrett-Joyner-Halenda (BJH) and density functional theory (DFT) methods and then the relationship between pore structure and shale gas sorption capacity was discussed. The results indicate that (1) The Lower Silurian shale has high TOC content of 0.92%–4.96%, high quartz content of 30.6%–69.5%, and high clays content of 24.1%–51.2%. The total specific surface area varies from 7.56 m2/g to 25.86 m2/g. Both the total specific surface area and quartz content are positively associated with the TOC content. (2) Shale samples with higher TOC content have more micropores, which results in more complex nanopore structure. Micropore volumes/surface areas and non-micropore surface areas all increase with the increasing TOC content. (3) A combination of N2 and CO2 adsorption provides the most suitable detection range (~0.3–60 nm) and has high reliability and accuracy for nanopore structure characterization. (4) The TOC content is the key factor to control the gas sorption capacity of the Lower Silurian shale in the Upper Yangtze Platform.  相似文献   

11.
藏东南帕隆藏布流域雪崩关键影响因素与易发性区划研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
雪崩灾害是青藏高原广泛分布的一类灾害,通过对雪崩的关键影响因素分析,构建雪崩灾害易发性评价体系,可为布局在青藏高原的川藏铁路等重大工程建设的防灾减灾工作提供科学支撑。本文以藏东南帕隆藏布流域为例,基于遥感解译和野外调查,识别出381个崩至林线以下的沟槽型雪崩范围,综合选取了18个雪崩影响因子,运用主成分分析法(PCA)对影响因子进行分析,获得了帕隆藏布流域雪崩发育的关键影响因素,并赋予各影响因素权重,通过加权信息量(PCA-Ⅰ)和加权确定性系数(PCA-CF)进行雪崩易发性区划,采用ROC曲线进行精度检验。结果表明,帕隆藏布流域内雪崩活动的关键影响因素可归纳为气候气象、宏观地形、微观地形和抑制作用成分4类主成分因素,其中气候气象解释了30.61%的数据变异,地形地貌解释了21.23%的数据变异;PCA-Ⅰ模型计算的雪崩易发性区划指数在[-2.41,1.365]区间内,PCA-CF得到雪崩易发性区划指数在[-0.549,0.424]区间内,两者ROC曲线的AUC均大于0.70;但PCA-Ⅰ模型计算的雪崩易发性结果在帕隆藏布下游通麦段的河谷区呈现明显的异常区,相对而言,PCA-CF模型计算的雪崩易发性区划指数更合理,且其ROC曲线的AUC评价精度高达0.913。整体结果表明雪崩高易发区域主要分布于帕隆藏布上游窄谷段(然乌至玉普段)、中下游(玉普至通麦段)两岸山岭的山脊部位和各支流窄谷段。  相似文献   

12.
梅里雪山雪崩多发,但缺乏系统监测和研究。1991年1月3日梅里雪山发生了造成中日联合登山队17名队员遇难的巨大雪崩事件。2019年安装在明永冰川末端附近的物候相机拍摄到临近梅里雪山明永冰川的一次雪崩事件。两次事件类型不同,这对我们进行雪崩预测预警有良好的指示作用。本研究以RAMMS(Rapid Mass Movement System)模型为手段,利用经验值和经验公式确定影响模拟结果的主要模型参数和积雪可能断裂深度,在优化分析的基础上,对两次雪崩事件进行重建,定量分析雪崩堆积量、堆积范围等。结果显示:1991年雪崩共持续了192s,雪崩体从海拔5730m处断裂,沿坡面崩塌而下最终堆积在海拔约5000m的冰川粒雪盆地区,形成面积为0.6km^(2),体积约67×10^(4)m^(3)的堆积体。2019年雪崩共持续了158s,雪崩流最大高度35.91m,最大速度79.34m·s,堆积量76.2×10^(4)m^(3),雪崩堆积范围与野外观测到的一致。两次雪崩事件发生地位于雪崩极高危险区和高危险区,在一定程度上验证了风险评估的准确性。研究结果可为梅里雪山地区未来潜在雪崩灾害的风险评估提供依据,为雪崩预测预警提供良好的参考。  相似文献   

13.
青藏高原高山峡谷区常发育崩滑碎屑流,这种灾害具有发育边坡高陡、碎屑流高能且坡脚撞击剧烈等特点。为了解这种碎屑流的运动规律及其堆积特征,设计并建立了自由下落的碎屑集合体撞击与停积过程的模型实验装置。考虑撞击过程对碎屑流运动和堆积的影响,获取不同粒径大小、体积、下落高度条件下,碎屑集合体的运动与堆积图像和定量化数据,并据此观察分析碎屑流的运动规律和堆积特征。主要结论如下:（1）碎屑集合体底部首先撞击地面,随后颗粒挤压形成剪切面,颗粒在剪切面上进行扩散运动并最终堆积。（2）撞击阶段,颗粒之间显著的动量传递作用致使碎屑集合体前缘颗粒运动速度较快、距离更远,并产生离散堆积现象。（3）自堆积重心至边缘,碎屑集合体的堆积厚度逐渐减小;堆积形态在运动初期呈近圆形,最终形态呈近菱形;运动中的力学过程导致出现横向脊和X型共轭脊现象。（4）碎屑集合体的粒径越小,体积越大,其主体运动距离、主体覆盖面积越大以及运动速度越快;体积与最大堆积厚度呈正相关关系;下落高度越小,其最大堆积厚度越大,运动速度越慢,与主体覆盖面积大体上呈负相关关系。（5）体积条件对碎屑集合体的堆积特征影响最大,粒径大小其次,下落高度影响最小。该研究可为川藏铁路沿线的工程结构设计及碎屑流的防治工作提供理论基础。  相似文献   

14.
青藏高原中东部积雪深度时空变化特征及其成因分析   总被引：6，自引：5，他引：1  
基于逐日积雪深度（雪深）、逐月气温和逐月降水量地面观测资料,利用数理统计方法分析了青藏高原中东部地区1961-2014年雪深时空变化特征及其成因,结果表明：青藏高原雪深空间分布不均,存在喜马拉雅山脉南坡（高原西南部）、念青唐古拉山-唐古拉山-巴颜喀拉山-阿尼玛卿山（高原中部）和祁连山脉（高原东北部）三处雪深高值区,冬季最大,其次是春秋季,夏季仅在纬度或海拔较高处才有雪深记录;从长期来看雪深以减少为主,尤其是夏秋季。在青藏高原普遍"增温增湿"背景下,雪深表现为先增后减的变化特征;雪深随海拔升高而增加,但最大雪深并非出现在最高海拔处;在不同季节雪深的气象要素成因上,冬季由降水主导,其余季节由气温主导。1961-1998年冬春季雪深增加与降水增多有关,而1998-2014年气温的上升以及降水的减少共同导致了雪深的减少,夏秋季雪深持续减少与同期气温持续升高有关。  相似文献   

15.
泥石流灾害是青藏高原地区最为发育的灾害类型之一,因其暴发突然、运动过程剧烈和破坏性强的特点而对川藏铁路工程建设和生命财产安全构成一定的威胁。地质灾害危险性评估是防灾减灾管理和防治环节中的有效措施之一,为合理量化线路沿程泥石流灾害危险性空间分布特征,研究以林芝市波密县境内的川藏铁路孜热—波密段为试验区,应用基于贝叶斯优化算法的随机森林和梯度提升树模型对该线路段的泥石流危险性进行定量化计算和危险性区划的判定。模型的输入信息包括172个历史泥石流点和11个特征参数,输出信息为每个预测单元泥石流暴发的危险性概率。最后,利用ROC-AUC方法对两种预测模型进行评估结果的检验。计算结果显示,在TBOR与TBOG模型中,川藏铁路孜然—波密线路段总体的泥石流危险性水平较高,两种模型在较高-高危险性区间内的危险分区比例分别达56.439%和66.580%,对应的灾害点密度分别为最高的12.577处/(102 km2)和12.940处/(102km2)。相比于TBOG模型的ROC-AUC值,TBOR模型的计算结果为0.89,高于TBOR的0.83。因此,TBOR模型具有更好的预测精度。本文的研究成果可为川藏铁路沿线防灾减灾防护工程建设和其他线路段危险性评价提供必要的参考。  相似文献   

16.
The occurrence of wet-snow avalanches is, in general, poorly understood. For 20 years (winters of 1975–1976 to 1994–1995), the avalanche activity has been observed in the Dischma valley near Davos (Eastern Swiss Alps). The study area comprises a large starting zone of north-easterly aspect (2,300 m a.s.l.) with several avalanche paths. We have analyzed the occurrence data in combination with meteorological and snowpack data collected at an elevation of 2,090 m a.s.l. During the 20-year observation period, almost 800 wet-snow avalanches were observed, about 4.5 times more loose snow avalanches than slab avalanches. Considering both types of avalanches jointly, snow depth, precipitation and air temperature showed the highest correlation with avalanche activity. Most loose snow avalanches occurred when air temperature was high and/or after a precipitation period. Slab avalanches occurrence was primarily related to warm air temperatures and snowpack properties such as the isothermal state and the existence of capillary barriers. Radiation did not show up as a significant variable. The results suggest that in a transitional snow climate wet-snow avalanches are, as dry snow avalanches, often related to precipitation events, and that wet slab instability strongly depends on snowpack properties in relation to warming of the snowpack and melt water production.  相似文献   

17.
选择了5种机器学习模型,即k最近邻方法（KNN）、多元自回归样条方法（MARS）、支持向量机（SVM）、多项对数线性模型（MLM）和人工神经网络（ANN）,利用海拔、相对湿度、坡向、植被、风速、气温和坡度等因子订正ITPCAS和CMORPH两种常用的青藏高原日降水数据集。五折交叉验证表明,KNN的订正精度最高。在三个验证站点（唐古拉、西大滩和五道梁）的误差分析,以及对青藏高原年降水量的空间分析均表明,KNN对CMORPH的订正效果显著,对ITPCAS在局部区域有一定订正效果,ITPCAS及其订正值的降水空间分布准确度高于CMORPH的订正值。主成分分析法表明降水订正是气象和环境因子综合作用的结果。  相似文献   

18.
D. M. McClung 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(3):1635-1645
In North America and Europe, most fatalities due to snow avalanches occur in the backcountry during recreational pursuits. Of these, more than 90% of the fatal avalanches are triggered by the victims themselves. This pattern suggests that the primary cause of avalanche fatalities for human-triggered avalanches is a failure in human perception. For the latter, people thought that the state of stability or instability of the snow cover was different than it actually was. In this paper, the strength and weight of evidence used to make decisions in backcountry travel are discussed from: (a) the perspective of the favored hypothesis to proceed for good recreational enjoyment based on stability evaluation and (b) the null hypothesis based on an assessment of instability. Based on the facts about snow slab avalanche release, it is argued that instability analysis is the best framework for avalanche forecasting, whereas human action is most closely related to the favored hypothesis (stability evaluation). Using scaling laws derived from: (a) fracture mechanics about the size of imperfections causing avalanches and (b) avalanche dimensions, it is suggested that a snow slab could show stability over more than 99% of the total area. From the concepts of Bayesian probability, it is shown that overconfidence about stability can arise when the weight of the likelihood is high and the weight of prior is low. Similarly, underconfidence (excessive conservatism) often results when the weight of the prior is high with little regard for the likelihood, which may be low. Overconfidence about stability is considered to be a prime source of accidents.  相似文献   

19.
奎屯河新龙口右岸山体崩塌原因及再次失稳可能性分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
奎屯河新龙口段山体历史上多次发生山体塌滑破坏,最近一次山体崩塌较为反常地发生在1月寒冷季节,而不是通 常的7、8月雨季,针对该段山体频繁发生破坏而且还出现反季节崩塌这种特殊情况,从区域地质背景、地震作用、地形地貌、气 候及降水等几个方面分别详细论述了产生崩塌的原因,同时指出这次反季节崩塌产生的触发原因在于气候反常造成雪水入 渗、短时间内发生多次冻融,裂隙中液态水结冰产生膨胀力诱发了此次山体崩塌。采用赤平投影分析论证了潜在崩塌的可能 性问题,指出发生此次崩塌后的右岸山体仍然未达到稳定状态,还可能再次发生破坏,同时应用实体比例投影法圈定了最有 可能破坏的山体位置并对崩塌方量进行了计算,从而对山体潜在崩塌可能性及规模有了一定把握,对该段山体崩塌的防治具 有实际的工程意义。  相似文献   

20.
P. Höller 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):1259-1288
Snow gliding is a downhill motion of snow on the ground; it is able to affect afforestation (uprooting of plants) and to cause soil erosion. Once the glide motion turns into an avalanche movement, the process is called a glide avalanche. Winters with continuing snow gliding and a high activity of glide avalanches might be called ‘glide winters’. The most recent ‘glide winter’ in the European Alps was 2011/2012. Glide avalanches have the ability to cause damage to buildings and infrastructure. This review describes the progress in research, from basic snow glide measurements via the design of sophisticated models through to comprehensive investigations concerning glide avalanche formation. However, despite the great progress made in this field of research, there are still some unsolved problems, such as the influence of soil conditions on snow gliding or the prediction of glide avalanches.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号