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1.
Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj?kull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38?%) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7?days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2?mg/m3, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment can help those who devise procedures to minimise the impact of these long-lasting low-intensity volcanic events on civil aviation.  相似文献   

2.
Volcanic ash fallout subsequent to a possible renewal of the Vesuvius activity represents a serious threat to the highly urbanized area around the volcano. In order to assess the relative hazard we consider three different possible scenarios such as those following Plinian, Sub-Plinian, and violent Strombolian eruptions. Reference eruptions for each scenario are similar to the 79 AD (Pompeii), the 1631 AD (or 472 AD) and the 1944 AD Vesuvius events, respectively. Fallout deposits for the first two scenarios are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the 2D advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation. In contrast, fallout following a violent Strombolian event is modeled by means of FALL3D, a numerical model based on the solution of the full 3D advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation which is valid also within the atmospheric boundary layer. Inputs for models are total erupted mass, eruption column height, bulk grain-size, bulk component distribution, and a statistical set of wind profiles obtained by the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. We computed ground load probability maps for different ash loadings. In the case of a Sub-Plinian scenario, the most representative tephra loading maps in 16 cardinal directions were also calculated. The probability maps obtained for the different scenarios are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.  相似文献   

3.
Volcanic eruptions produce ash clouds, which are a major hazard to population centers and the aviation community. Within the North Pacific (NOPAC) region, there have been numerous volcanic ash clouds that have reached aviation routes. Others have closed airports and traveled for thousands of kilometers. Being able to detect these ash clouds and then provide an assessment of their potential movement is essential for hazard assessment and mitigation. Remote sensing satellite data, through the reverse absorption or split window method, is used to detect these volcanic ash clouds, with a negative signal produced from spectrally semi-transparent ash clouds. Single channel satellite is used to detect the early eruption spectrally opaque ash clouds. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are used to provide a forecast of the ash clouds' future location. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) remote sensing ash detection system automatically analyzes satellite data of volcanic ash clouds, detecting new ash clouds and also providing alerts, both email and text, to those with AVO. However, there are also non-volcanic related features across the NOPAC region that can produce a negative signal. These can complicate alerts and warning of impending ash clouds. Discussions and examples are shown of these non-volcanic features and some analysis is provided on how these features can be discriminated from volcanic ash clouds. Finally, there is discussion on how information of the ash cloud such as location, particle size and concentrations, could be used as VATD model initialization. These model forecasts could then provide an improved assessment of the clouds' future movement.  相似文献   

4.
Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.  相似文献   

5.
Ash samples from tephra layers correlated with the Pomici di Avellino (Avellino Pumice) eruption of Somma-Vesuvius were collected in distal archives and their composition and particle morphology investigated in order to infer their behaviour of transportation and deposition. Differences in composition and particle morphologies were recognised for ash particles belonging to the magmatic Plinian and final phreatomagmatic phases of the eruption. The ash particles were dispersed in opposite directions during the two different phases of the eruption, and these directions are also different from that of coarse-grained fallout deposits. In particular, ash generated during magmatic phase and injected in the atmosphere to form a sustained column shows a prevailing SE dispersion, while ash particles generated during the final phreatomagmatic phase and carried by pyroclastic density currents show a general NW dispersion. These opposite dispersions indicate an ash dispersal influenced by both high and low atmosphere dynamics. In particular, the magmatic ash dispersal was first driven by stratospheric wind towards NE and then the falling particles encountered a variable wind field during their settling, which produced the observed preferential SE dispersal. The wind field encountered by the rising ash clouds that accompanied the pyroclastic density currents of the final phreatomagmatic phase was different with respect to that encountered by the magmatic ash, and produced a NW dispersal. These data demonstrate how ash transportation and deposition are greatly influenced by both high and low atmosphere dynamics. In particular, fine-grained particles transported in ash clouds of small-scale pyroclastic density currents may be dispersed over distances and cover areas comparable with those injected into the stratosphere by Plinian, sustained columns. This is a point not completely addressed by present day mitigation plans in case of renewal of activity at Somma-Vesuvius, and can yield important information also for other volcanoes potentially characterised by explosive activity.  相似文献   

6.
Ash produced by a volcanic eruption on Iceland can be hazardous for both the transatlantic flight paths and European airports and airspace. In order to begin to quantify the risk to aircraft, this study explored the probability of ash from a short explosive eruption of Hekla Volcano (63.98°N, 19.7°W) reaching European airspace. Transport, dispersion and deposition of the ash cloud from a three hour ‘explosive’ eruption with an initial plume height of 12 km was simulated using the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment, NAME, the model used operationally by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eruptions were simulated over a six year period, from 2003 until 2008, and ash clouds were tracked for four days following each eruption.Results showed that a rapid spread of volcanic ash is possible, with all countries in Europe facing the possibility of an airborne ash concentration exceeding International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) limits within 24 h of an eruption. An additional high impact, low probability event which could occur is the southward spread of the ash cloud which would block transatlantic flights approaching and leaving Europe. Probabilities of significant concentrations of ash are highest to the east of Iceland, with probabilities exceeding 20% in most countries north of 50°N. Deposition probabilities were highest at Scottish and Scandinavian airports. There is some seasonal variability in the probabilities; ash is more likely to reach southern Europe in winter when the mean winds across the continent are northerly. Ash concentrations usually remain higher for longer during summer when the mean wind speeds are lower.  相似文献   

7.
Volcanic ash fallout represents a serious threat to people living near active volcanoes because it can produce several undesirable effects such as collapse of roofs by ash loading, respiratory sickness, air traffic disruption, or damage to agriculture. The assessment of such volcanic risk is therefore an issue of vital importance for public safety and its mitigation often requires to evaluate the temporal evolution of the phenomenon through reliable computational models.We develop an Eulerian model, named FALL3D, for the transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. The model is based on the advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation with a turbulent diffusion given by the gradient transport theory, a wind field obtained from a meteorological limited area model (LAM) and the source term derived from by buoyant plume theory. It can be used to forecast either ash concentration in the atmosphere or ash loading on the ground. Model inputs are topography, meteorological data given by a LAM, mass eruption rate, and a particle settling velocity distribution. A test application to the July 2001 Etna eruption is presented.  相似文献   

8.
Mt Somma-Vesuvius is a composite volcano on the southern margin of the Campanian Plain which has been active since 39 ka BP and which poses a hazard and risk for the people living around its base. The volcano last erupted in 1944, and since this date has been in repose. As the level of volcanic risk perception is very high in the scientific community, in 1995 a hazard and risk evaluation, and evacuation plan, was published by the Italian Department of Civil Protection (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile). The plan considered the response to a worst-case scenario, taken to be a subplinian eruption on the scale of the 1631 AD eruption, and based on a volcanological reconstruction of this eruption, assumes that a future eruption will be preceded by about two weeks of ground uplift at the volcano's summit, and about one week of locally perceptible seismic activity. Moreover, by analogy with the 1631 events, the plan assumes that ash fall and pyroclastic flow should be recognized as the primary volcanic hazard. To design the response to this subplinian eruption, the emergency plan divided the Somma-Vesuvius region into three hazard zones affected by pyroclastic flows (Red Zone), tephra fall (Yellow and Green Zone), and floods (Blue Zone). The plan at present is the subject of much controversy, and, in our opinion, several assumptions need to be modified according to the following arguments: a) For the precursory unrest problem, recent scientific studies show that at present neither forecast capability is realistic, so that the assumption that a future eruption will be preceded by about two weeks of forecasts need to be modified; b) Regarding the exposure of the Vesuvius region to flow phenomena, the Red Zone presents much inconsistency near the outer border as it has been defined by the administrative limits of the eighteen municipality area lying on the volcano. As this outer limit shows no uniformity, a pressing need exists to define appropriately the flow hazard zone, since there are some important public structures not considered in the current Red Zone that could be exposed to flow risk; c) Modern wind records clearly indicate that at the time of a future eruption winds could blow not only from the west, but also from the east, so that the Yellow Zone (the area with the potential to be affected by significant tephra fall deposits) must be redefined. As a result the relationship between the Yellow Zone and Green Zone (the area within and beyond which the impact of tephra fall is expected to be insignificant) must be reconsidered mainly in the Naples area; d) The May 1998 landslide, caused in the Apennine region east of the volcano by continuous rain fall, led to the definition of a zone affected by re-mobilisation of tephra (Blue Zone), confined in the Nola valley. However, as described in the 1631 chronicles of the eruption, if generation of debris flows occurs during and after a future eruption, a much wider region east of the Somma-Vesuvius must be affected by events of this type.  相似文献   

9.
Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region  相似文献   

10.
Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).  相似文献   

11.
Longgang volcano cluster is 150km away from the Tianchi volcano, located in Jingyu and Huinan Counties, Jilin Province, China. It had a long active history and produced hundreds of volcanoes. The latest and largest eruption occurred between 1 500 and 1 600 years ago by Jinlongdingzi(JLDZ)volcano which had several eruptions in the history. This paper discusses the volcanic hazard types, and using the numerical simulations of lava flow obtained with the Volcflow model, proposes the hazard zonation of JLDZ volcano area. JLDZ volcano eruption type is sub-plinian, which produced a great mass of tephra fallout, covering an area of 260km2. The major types of volcanic hazards in JLDZ area are lava flow, tephra fallout and spatter deposits. Volcflow is developed by Kelfoun for the simulation of volcanic flows. The result of Volcflow shows that the flows are on the both sides of the previous lava flows which are low-lying areas now. According to the physical parameters of historical eruption and Volcflow, we propose the preliminary volcanic hazard zonation in JLDZ area. The air fall deposits are the most dangerous product in JLDZ. The highly dangerous region of spatter deposits is limited to a radius of about 2km around the volcano. The high risk area of tephra fallout is between 2km to 9km around the volcano, and between 9km to 14km is the moderate risk area. Out of 14km, it is the low risk area. Lava flow is controlled by topography. From Jinchuan Town to Houhe Village near the volcano is the low-lying area. If the volcano erupts, these areas will be in danger.  相似文献   

12.
Volcanic ash produced during explosive eruptions can have very severe impacts on modern technological societies. Here, we use reconstructed patterns of fine ash dispersal recorded in terrestrial and marine geological archives to assess volcanic ash hazards. The ash-dispersal maps from nine Holocene explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes have been used to construct frequency maps of distal ash deposition over a wide area, which encompasses central and southern Italy, the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas and the Balkans. The maps are presented as two cumulative-thickness isopach maps, one for nine eruptions from different volcanoes and one for six eruptions from Somma-Vesuvius. These maps represent the first use of distal ash layers to construct volcanic hazard maps, and the proposed methodology is easily applicable to other volcanic areas worldwide.  相似文献   

13.
Catastrophic sedimentary processes associated with explosive eruptions represent a significant geologic hazard in volcanic areas. Here we report a striking historic example of an intermediate-scale explosive event whose environmental effects were strongly amplified by secondary rapid mass flows and hydrogeologic disasters. The 472 AD Pollena eruption of Somma-Vesuvius (Campania, Italy) took place in the critical period of the fall of the Western Roman Empire. On the basis of an integrated geologic–archaeologic study we point out evidence of human habitation at the time of the eruption, effects induced and recovery time in a wide territory of Campania, and how the eruption significantly accelerated the deterioration of the local society during the Late Ancient age. The eruption began with a pulsating, sustained eruption column, followed by pyroclastic surges and scoria flows. Hydromagmatism acted early in the event, different from the typical Plinian eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius. Specific facies associations of primary and secondary volcaniclastic deposits characterize three depositional domains, including the volcano slopes, the surrounding alluvial plains and the distal mountains of the Apennine Range. Both volcano slopes and distal mountain slopes supplied loose pyroclastic material to the hyperconcentrated floods and debris flows that spread across the alluvial plains. The great impact of secondary volcaniclastic processes arose from: (1) the high vulnerability of the territory due to its geomorphic context; (2) the humid climatic conditions; (3) the hydromagmatic character of the eruption; (4) the decline of land management at the end of the Roman Empire.  相似文献   

14.
We have documented 80 tephra beds dating from ca. 9.5 to >50 ka, contained within continuously deposited palaeolake sediments from Onepoto Basin, a volcanic explosion crater in Auckland, New Zealand. The known sources for distal (>190 km from vent) tephra include the rhyolitic Taupo Volcanic Centre (4) and Okataina Volcanic Centre (14), and the andesitic Taranaki volcano (40) and Tongariro Volcanic Centre (3). The record provides evidence for four new events between ca. 50 and 28 ka (Mangaone Subgroup) suggesting Okataina was more active than previously known. The tephra record also greatly extends the known northern dispersal of other Mangaone Subgroup tephra. Ten rhyolitic tephra pre-date the Rotoehu eruption (>ca. 50 ka), and some are chemically dissimilar to post-50 ka rhyolites. Some of these older tephra were produced by large-magnitude events; however, their source remains uncertain. Eight tephra from the local basaltic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) are also identified. Interpolation of sedimentation rates allow us to estimate the timing of 12 major explosive eruptions from Taranaki volcano in the 27.5-9.5-ka period. In addition, 28 older events are recognised. The tephra are trachytic to rhyolitic in composition. All have high K2O contents (>3 wt%), and there are no temporal trends. This contrasts with the proximal lava record that shows a trend of increasing K2O with time. By combining the Onepoto tephra record with that of the previously documented Pukaki crater, 15 AVF basaltic fall events are constrained at: 34.6, 30.9, 29.6, 29.6, 25.7, 25.2, 24.2, 23.8, 19.4, 19.4, 15.8 and 14.5 ka, and three pre-50 ka events. This provides some of the best age constraints for the AVF, and the only reliable data for hazard recurrence calculations. The minimum event frequency of both distal and local fall events can be estimated, and demonstrates the Auckland City region is frequently impacted by ash fall from many volcanoes.  相似文献   

15.
Merapi volcano, in Central Java, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. At least 23 of the 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s have produced source deposits for lahars. The combined lahar deposits cover about 286 km2 on the flanks and the surrounding piedmonts of the volcano. At Merapi, lahars are commonly rain-triggered by rainfalls having an average intensity of about 40 mm in 2 h. Most occur during the rainy season from November to April, and have average velocities of 5–7 m/s at 1000 m in elevation. A wide range of facies may be generated from a single flow, which may transform downvalley from debris flow to hyperconcentrated streamflow.Because of the high frequency and magnitude of the lahar events, lahar-related hazards are high below about 450–600 m elevation in each of the 13 rivers which drain the volcano. Hazard-zone maps for lahar were produced by Pardyanto et al. (Volcanic hazard map, Merapi volcano, Central Java (1/100,000). Geol. Surv. of Indonesia, Bandung, II, 4, 1978) and the Japanese–Indonesian Cooperation Agency (Master plan for land conservation and volcanic debris control in the area of Mt Merapi, Jakarta, 1980), but these maps are of a very small scale to meet modern zoning requirements. More recently, a few large-scale maps (1/10,000- and 1/2000-scale) and risk assessments have been completed for a few critical river systems.  相似文献   

16.
The eruption of Novarupta within the Katmai Volcanic Cluster, south-west Alaska, in June 1912 was the most voluminous eruption of the twentieth century but the distal distribution of tephra deposition is inadequately quantified. We present new syntheses of published tephrostratigraphic studies and a large quantity of previously un-investigated historical records. For the first time, we apply a geostatistical technique, indicator kriging, to integrate and interpolate such data. Our results show evidence for tephra deposition across much of Alaska, Yukon, the northern Pacific, western British Columbia and northwestern Washington. The most distal tephra deposition was observed around 2,500?km downwind from the volcano. Associated with tephra deposition are many accounts of acid deposition and consequent impacts on vegetation and human health. Kriging offers several advantages as a means to integrate and present such data. Future eruptions of a scale similar to the 1912 event have the potential to cause widespread disruption. Historical records of tephra deposition extend far beyond the limit of deposition constrained by tephrostratigraphic records. The distal portion of tephra fallout deposits is rarely adequately mapped by tephrostratigraphy alone; contemporaneous reports of fallout can provide important constraints on the extent of impacts following large explosive eruptions.  相似文献   

17.
Lateral blasts at andesitic and dacitic volcanoes can produce a variety of direct hazards, including ballistic projectiles which can be thrown to distances of at least 10 km and pyroclastic density flows which can travel at high speed to distances of more than 30 km. Indirect effect that may accompany such explosions include wind-borne ash, pyroclastic flows formed by the remobilization of rock debris thrown onto sloping ground, and lahars.Two lateral blasts occurred at a lava dome on the north flank of Mount St. Helens about 1200 years ago; the more energetic of these threw rock debris northeastward across a sector of about 30° to a distance of at least 10 km. The ballistic debris fell onto an area estimated to be 50 km2, and wind-transported ash and lapilli derived from the lateral-blast cloud fell on an additional lobate area of at least 200 km2. In contrast, the vastly larger lateral blast of May 18, 1980, created a devastating pyroclastic density flow that covered a sector of as much as 180°, reached a maximum distance of 28 km, and within a few minutes directly affected an area of about 550 km2. The May 18 lateral blast resulted from the sudden, landslide-induced depressurization of a dacite cryptodome and the hydrothermal system that surrounded it within the volcano.We propose that lateral-blast hazard assessments for lava domes include an adjoining hazard zone with a radius of at least 10 km. Although a lateral blast can occur on any side of a dome, the sector directly affected by any one blast probably will be less than 180°. Nevertheless, a circular hazard zone centered on the dome is suggested because of the difficulty of predicting the direction of a lateral blast.For the purpose of long-term land-use planning, a hazard assessment for lateral blasts caused by explosions of magma bodies or pressurized hydrothermal systems within a symmetrical volcano could designate a circular potential hazard area with a radius of 35 km centered on the volcano. For short-term hazard assessments, if seismicity and deformation indicate that magma is moving toward the flank of a volcano, it should be recognized that a landslide could lead to the sudden unloading of a magmatic or hydrothermal system and thereby cause a catastrophic lateral blast. A hazard assessment should assume that a lateral blast could directly affect an area at least 180° wide to a distance of 35 km from the site of the explosion, irrespective of topography.  相似文献   

18.
通过对2016年全球活动火山监测信息的统计,2016年共有96座火山记录到喷发活动,主要分布在环太平洋俯冲带及印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞边界上。火山预警等级共有4个,可以标识火山的危险程度,本文根据火山每个预警等级在全年52次监测信息报道中的出现次数,将96座活动火山按危险程度划为4类,并对每类的火山活动作出了详细描述。2016年的火山喷发也造成了人员伤亡和财产损失,印度尼西亚是受火山灾害影响最严重的国家。此外,根据火山灰柱海拔高度的整理及近年活动火山数量的调查,推测2016年的火山活动仅会使火山附近区域的天气受到影响,应不会引起全球性的气候异常。   相似文献   

19.
Cotopaxi, the highest active volcano on earth and one of the most dangerous of Ecuador is constituted by a composite cone made up of lava and tephra erupted from the summit crater. The activity of the present volcano begun with large-volume plinian eruptions followed by a succession of small-volume lava emissions and pyroclastic episodes which led to the edification of a symmetrical cone. The growth of the cone was broken by an episode of slope failure, the scar of which is now obliterated by recent and historical products. Volcanic history, eruptive frequency and characteristics of the activity were investigated by studying the stratigraphy of tephra and carrying out fifteen new 14C dating on paleosols and charcoals. The investigated period is comprised between the slope failure and the present. The deposit of the volcanic landside (dry debris avalanche of Rio Pita), previously believed to be between 13,000 and 25,000 yr B.P., is now considered to have an age slightly older than 5000 yr B.P. The stratigraphy of tephra of the last 2000 years reveals the existence of 22 fallout layers. Seven of them were dated with 14C whereas three were ascribed to the eruptions of 1534, 1768 and 1877 on the basis of comparison with historical information.Maximum clast size distribution (isopleths) of 9 tephra layers points out that the sustained explosive eruptions of Cotopaxi during the last 2000 years are characterized by very high dispersive power (plinian plumes with column heights between 28 and 39 km) and high intensity (peak mass discharges from 1.1 to 4.1 × 108kg/s). The magnitude (mass) of tephra fallout deposits calculated from distribution of thickness (isopaches) are, however, moderate (from 0.8 to 7.2 × 1011 kg). The limited volume of magma erupted during each explosive episode is consistent with the lack of caldera collapses. Small-volume pyroclastic flows and surges virtually accompanied all identified tephra fallouts. During such an activity large scale snow/ice melting of the summit glacier produced devastating mudflows comparable in scale to those of 1877 eruption. By assuming a 1:1 correspondence between fallout episodes and generation of large-scale lahar, we have estimated an average recurrence of one explosive, lahartriggering event every 117 years over the last two millennia. This value compares well with that calculated by considering the period since Spanish Conquest. The probability of having an eruption like this in 100 or 200 years is respectively of 0.57 and 0.82. Such an high probability underscores the need for quick actions aimed at the mitigation of Cotopaxi lahar hazard along all the main valleys which originate from the volcano.  相似文献   

20.
The dispersal of volcanic ash from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) has been simulated using the Lagrangian ash-tracking model PUFF. Previous applications of the model were limited to smaller, short-lived eruptions with ash dispersal occurring mainly within the troposphere. Two high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR-40) allowed MSH ash cloud dispersal to be simulated up to 30 km elevation. The 1980 eruption was divided into two distinct eruptive phases, (1) an initial, relatively short-lived blast/surge phase that injected ash up to 30 km and (2) a subsequent nine-hour plinian phase that maintained an average eruption column height of 16 km. Using PUFF, the two phases of the MSH eruption were modeled separately based on a range of individual input parameters and then combined to produce an integrated simulation of the entire eruption. The trajectory and areal extent of the modeled atmospheric ash cloud best match the actual distribution of MSH ash when input parameters are set to values inferred from satellite and radar data collected on May 18, 1980. The prevailing wind field exerts the strongest control on the advection and ultimate position of the modeled ash cloud, making the maximum column height and the vertical distribution of ash the most sensitive of the PUFF input parameters for this event. The results indicate that the PUFF model works well at simulating the dispersal of ash injected well into the lower stratosphere from a moderate, relatively long-lived eruption, such as MSH. However, attempts to use PUFF to recreate some granulometric aspects of the MSH fallout deposit, such as the maximum particle size as a function of distance from source, were not successful. PUFF consistently predicts much greater fallout distances for small ash particles (< 500 µm) than actually observed in the MSH deposit. The effective settling velocities used by the PUFF model appear to be too slow to accurately predict fallout distances of small ash particles. As a consequence the PUFF model may overestimate the duration of ash loading in the atmosphere associated with the distal fine ash component of explosive eruptions.  相似文献   

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