共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Target factors aim at setting criteria to select foreign vessels that should be inspected by port state control authorities. Although a relative consensus exists on the main factors to consider in selecting vessels, the weight to be given to these factors is still unclear. Using data on 26 515 PSC inspections that took place within the Indian Ocean MoU region from 2002 to 2006, we investigate the determinants of the number of deficiencies and of the probability of detention. Our results show that the main contributors to detention are the age of the vessel at inspection (40%), the recognised organization (31%) and the place where the inspection occurs (17%). Also, differences in detention rates amongst various inspecting authorities are essentially explained by differences in the characteristics of vessels calling in a specific country rather than by differences in the way inspections are done. 相似文献
2.
This article provides a refined technique to measure and interpret variables associated with the quality of an inspection—be it port state control or vetting inspections towards the probability of a very serious, serious or less serious casualty. It concentrates on filtering out the effect of variables such as detention, the port state control regime that inspected the vessel, time in-between inspections, deficiencies found during an inspection and the effect of vetting inspections. The consensus amongst policy makers in the shipping industry is that data cannot be combined to target vessels. While this article does demonstrate that the decrease in the probability of casualty is stronger for the South American Region, the Indian Ocean Region and Australia versus North Europe, North America or the Caribbean, it also demonstrates that the data can be combined to target vessels for inspections. Since the time in-between inspections and detention is mostly not significant towards decreasing the probability of casualty, these results reflect the lack of coordination amongst port state control regimes and industry inspections. Due to this lack of coordination and trust, a ship might be inspected in several regimes during a relative short time period where the benefit of an inspection can be easily saturated. Our recommendation on direct policy implication is to promote the harmonization of inspection databases across port state control regimes, preferably with the coordination of the development of the Global Integrated Ship Information System (GISIS) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to review the policy of a release of a vessel from detention and to increase cooperation amongst regimes with respect to the follow up of the rectification of deficiencies. 相似文献
3.
Due to the shipping industry's international legal framework, there are loopholes in the system, which can increase the risk of incidents with high economic costs due to the substandard operation of vessels. This article uses duration analysis and through the creation of ship life cycles provides insight into the effectiveness of inspections on prolonging ship lives. The analysis accounts for fluctuations in the relevant economic environment and the (possibly time-varying) ship particulars. It is based on a unique dataset containing information on the timing of accidents, inspections and ship particular changes of more than 50,000 vessels over a 29-year time period (1978–2007). The results reveal that the shipping industry is a relatively safe industry but there is a possible over-inspection of vessels. The effect of inspections varies across ship types and the prevention of incidents with high economic costs can be improved by a coordinated approach of all types of inspections that are performed which allows the decrease of unnecessary inspections. Further, more emphasis should be placed on the rectification and follow-up of deficiencies and the implementation of the ISM code. Another added benefit for the industry would be to improve transparency related to class withdrawals and class transfers for all classification societies. Another interesting finding is that for the majority of ship types, an increase in earnings decreases the incident rate. This is in contrast to the industry perception of the impact of earnings. 相似文献
4.
Methods for estimating extreme loads are used in design as well as risk assessment. Regression using maximum likelihood or least squares estimation is widely used in a univariate analysis but these methods favour solutions that fit observations in an average sense. Here we describe a new technique for estimating extremes using a quantile function model. A quantile of a distribution is most commonly termed a ‘return level’ in flood risk analysis. The quantile function of a random variable is the inverse function of its distribution function. Quantile function models are different from the conventional regression models, because a quantile function model estimates the quantiles of a variable conditional on some other variables, while a regression model studies the conditional mean of a variable. So quantile function models allow us to study the whole conditional distribution of a variable via its quantile function, whereas conventional regression models represent the average behaviour of a variable.Little work can be found in the literature about prediction from a quantile function model. This paper proposes a prediction method for quantile function models. We also compare different types of statistical models using sea level observations from Venice. Our study shows that quantile function models can be used to estimate directly the relationships between sea condition variables, and also to predict critical quantiles of a sea condition variable conditional on others. Our results show that the proposed quantile function model and the developed prediction method have the potential to be very useful in practice. 相似文献
5.
The generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) is often used to model the distribution of storm peak wave heights exceeding a high threshold, from which return values can be calculated. There are large differences in the performance of various parameter and quantile estimators for the GPD. Commonly used estimation methods such as maximum likelihood or probability weighted moments are not optimal, especially for smaller sample sizes. The performance of several estimators for the GPD is compared by the Monte Carlo simulation and the implications for estimating return values of significant wave height are discussed. Of the estimators compared, the likelihood-moment (LM) estimator has close to the lowest bias and variance over a wide range of sample sizes and GPD shape parameters. The LM estimator always exists, is simple to compute and has a low sensitivity to choice of threshold. It is recommended that the LM estimator is used for calculating return values of significant wave height when the sample size is less than 500. For sample sizes above 500 the NEW estimator of Zhang and Stephens (2009) can give accurate results for low computational cost. 相似文献
6.
《Marine Policy》2017
Discard management needs to draw on scientific research and advice, usually supported by specific statistical modeling analysis. A wide range of statistical analysis methods were applied to fishery data in an attempt to distinguish factors that influence the species discard composition. While such approaches are important, they are still incomplete for disaggregating the economic and spatial-temporal factors for analyzing of this process and obtain a whole view of this issue. Our study aims to fill this gap by identifying, describing, and quantifying factors that influence discards of trawl fisheries using a multivariate approach based on five complementary aspects: “economic”, “vessel characteristics”, “spatial”, “temporal” and “environmental”. In addition, a spatial multi-criteria approach were used to investigate discard hot-spot areas using ecological criteria such as vulnerability and resilience of the discarded species. Using these ecological criteria will concentrate conservation efforts on the most relevant sites minimizing discards of a variety of potentially vulnerable species. This approach was applied to a case study of a multi-species demersal bottom trawl fisheries in north Spain, Cantabrian Sea (ICES area VIIIc). Results showed how spatial and economic factors highly affect species discard composition, identifying specific spatial-temporal discard hot-spots to be preferentially avoided by fishers. Mitigation measures for future fisheries management strategies should be implemented at multiple stages of the discarding process, both in the selection of the fishing grounds and the economic valorization of the discarded species. 相似文献
7.
Owing to high costs and unnecessary inspections necessitated by the traditional inspection planning for ship structures, the risk-based inspection and repair planning should be investigated for the most cost-effective inspection. This paper aims to propose a cost-benefit assessment model of risk-based inspection and repair planning for ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. Then, the benefit-cost ratio is taken to be an index for the selection of the optimal inspection and repair strategy. The planning problem is formulated as an optimization problem where the benefit-cost ratio for the expected lifetime is maximized with a constraint on the minimum acceptalbe reliability index. To account for the effect of corrosion model uncertainty on the cost-benefit assessment, two corrosion models, namgly, Paik＇ s model and Guedes Soares＇ model, are adopted for analysis. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method. Sensitivity studies are also providet. The results indicate that the proposed method of risk-based cost-benefit analysis can effectively integrate the economy with reliability of the inspection and repair planning. A balance can be achieved between the risk cost and total expected inspection and repair costs with the proposed method, which is very. effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. It is pointed out that the corrosion model uncertainty and parametric uncertaintg have a significant impact on the cost-benefit assessment of inspection and repair planning. 相似文献
8.
挥发性卤代烃(Volatile halocarbons,VHCs)是大气中一类重要的痕量温室气体和主要的臭氧层破坏者,在全球气候变化中起着十分重要的作用。大量研究表明海洋是大气中VHCs的重要源汇区,研究海洋中VHCs的生物地球化学循环,对于进一步了解海洋中的VHCs对未来全球气候的影响具有重要意义。本文针对国内、外有关海洋中VHCs生物地球化学循环研究的进展进行了综述,介绍了VHCs在海洋中的来源和产生机制、它的分布规律及其影响因素,从而归纳了VHCs在海洋中的迁移转化过程。针对目前缺乏对于海洋中VHCs的生物、非生物形成机制及其在海洋中迁移转化机制的具体过程的深入研究,以及有限航次的海洋中VHCs的浓度监测数据和源汇收支不平衡的问题,提出未来的研究需要加强海洋中VHCs的来源、生成机制、迁移转化机制及其影响因素的深入探究,开展更系统的长时间尺度和空间维度上的全球海域中VHCs大数据监测,并完善海-气通量的计算方法,准确估算海洋中VHCs的源汇。 相似文献
9.
《Marine Policy》2017
The Panama Ship Registry has its origins in the year 1917. Nowadays, Panama has the largest vessel registry in the world. The second placed registry in the world ranking is Liberia, which does not have even half the number of Panamanian ships. In this Centennial, the aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of the Panamanian Registry, the structure of the Panamanian-flagged fleet and the level of compliance with international standards in relation to maritime safety and working conditions. To undertake the analysis, two different qualitative and quantitative approaches are compared and integrated for the evaluation of the Panama Ship Registry: the degree of ratification and enforcement of the Conventions and Recommendations of the International Maritime Organization and International Labour Organization, and the results of Panamanian flagged vessels in inspections carried out within the major Port State Control Memoranda of Understanding. This paper fills a research gap by discussing an approach to the concept of flag of convenience and flag State, Panama is more an international registry, whose role is becoming less important from the points of view of safety or working conditions. The fleet performance evolution has been very positive as evidenced by the data presented in this article regarding Port State Control. 相似文献
10.
A non-traditional fuzzy quantification method is presented in the modeling of an extreme significant wave height. First, a set of parametric models are selected to fit time series data for the significant wave height and the extrapolation for extremes are obtained based on high quantile estimations. The quality of these results is compared and discussed. Then, the proposed fuzzy model, which combines Poisson process and generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) model, is applied to characterizing the wave extremes in the time series data. The estimations for a long-term return value are considered as time-varying as a threshold is regarded as non-stationary. The estimated intervals coupled with the fuzzy theory are then introduced to construct the probability bounds for the return values. This nontraditional model is analyzed in comparison with the traditional model in the degree of conservatism for the long-term estimate. The impact on the fuzzy bounds of extreme estimations from the non stationary effect in the proposed model is also investigated. 相似文献
11.
Kose E. Gosine R.G. Dunwoody A.B. Calisal S.M. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》1995,20(1):13-22
This paper describes an intelligent monitoring and advisory system for vessel safety. This system uses environmental information obtained from a number of sensors and proposes corrective action based on a rule-base derived from human expertise, experiments, and theoretical research. The architecture of the monitoring and advisory system is described. Capsizing modes of a ship at sea are explained, and the fuzzy expert system used in the decision-making process is detailed. Simulations of various sea conditions leading to capsize are presented, and the vessel response to the corrective action suggested by the advisory system is illustrated 相似文献
12.
The paper presents a theoretical and an experimental investigation into the plastic collapse of circular steel corrugated cylinders under external hydrostatic pressure. The experimental investigation gives a detailed study of 9 steel corrugated cylinders which were tested to destruction. Six of these cylinders failed by plastic non-symmetric bifurcation buckling and three failed by plastic axisymmetric deformation. The results of these tests were used, together with the results obtained from previous tests, to present a design chart for the plastic collapse of these vessels. The design chart was obtained by a semi-empirical approach, where the thinness ratios of the vessels were plotted against their plastic knockdown factors. The process of using the design chart is to calculate the theoretical elastic instability pressure for a perfect vessel by the finite element method and also to calculate the thinness ratio for this vessel. Using the appropriate value of the thinness ratio, the plastic knockdown factors are obtained from the design chart. To obtain the actual collapse pressure of the vessel, the theoretical elastic instability pressure for a perfect vessel is divided by the plastic knockdown factor. This work is of importance in ocean engineering. A large safety factor must also be introduced. 相似文献
13.
The quasi-steady resonant vibration of a flexible seagoing vessel under resonant wave excitation force, called springing, is studied in this paper. A higher-order B-spline Rankine panel method is used to represent the effects of the fluid motion surrounding this flexible seagoing vessel, and a finite element formulation based on Vlasov beam is employed for structural response. The boundary integral equation and finite element equation, both for fluid and structural domains, are fully coupled with each other using an iterative implicit method in the time domain. Coupling between the two field equations is achieved by relying on fixed-point iteration with relaxation aided by Aitken's δ2 process to maximize convergence speed. The steady-unsteady coupling term or m-term in the linearized body boundary condition derived by Timman and Newman is taken into account for accurate prediction of flexible body motion when forward speed is present. The 2nd derivative of basis potential in the m-term is obtained by modifying Nakos approach, which was originally developed using the Stokes theorem for rigid body ship motion problem. For the solution of the FE equation, instead of conventionally used modal superposition method, a direct integration scheme based on Newmark method is employed. It is believed that this technique is more attractive in the sense that it allows us free from the selection of optimum number of mode-shapes in the computation. 相似文献
14.
船只目标SAR、HFSWR和AIS多手段融合探测的点迹关联分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
A space-borne synthetic aperture radar （SAR）, a high frequency surface wave radar （HFSWR）, and a ship automatic identification system （AIS） are the main remote sensors for vessel monitoring in a wide range. These three sensors have their own advantages and weaknesses, and they can complement each other in some situations. So it would improve the capability of vessel target detection to use multiple sensors including SAR, HFSWR, and A/S to identify non-cooperative vessel targets from the fusion results. During the fusion process of multiple sensors＇ detection results, point association is one of the key steps, and it can affect the accuracy of the data fusion and the efficiency of a non-cooperative target＇s recognition. This study investigated the point association analyses of vessel target detection under different conditions： space- borne SAR paired with AIS, as well as HFSWR, paired with AIS, and the characteristics of the SAR and the HFSWR and their capability of vessel target detection. Then a point association method of multiple sensors was proposed. Finally, the thresholds selection of key parameters in the points association （including range threshold, radial velocity threshold, and azimuth threshold） were investigated, and their influences on final association results were analyzed. 相似文献
15.
海域溢油环境敏感性评价工作是溢油应急规划的基础,有利于溢油事故的应急处理。本文对海岸线的溢油环境敏感型的主要评价方法和选取的评价指标进行了总结;在溢油环境敏感性评价中采用的方法主要包含指数法、层次分析法、德尔菲法、模糊综合评价法等;在研究中,各类方法具有不同特点,多为各种方法同时使用。目前,国内外研究中选取的各类指标可总结归为物理指标、生物指标、社会-经济指标三大类,并且针对部分指标选取的理论依据进行了论述。探讨了较为系统化的评价指标体系的构建。综述了海岸线溢油环境敏感性评价的国内外的主要研究进展。最后指出当前溢油环境敏感性评价中存在的不足,如评价体系系统性差、评价指标科学性低及评价过程主观性强等,而加强学科交叉的同时对目前研究中不足深入研究将是后续的研究重点。 相似文献
16.
A model for the economics of marine conservation is developed and tested using data from a global sample of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Results from logistic regressions indicate that significant determinants of positive MPA effects vary among MPA subgroups. These significant regressors include enforcement in later time periods and certain “goodwill building activities” carried out by MPA management, as well as a number of institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of the communities. Policy implications and recommendations for additional research are discussed. 相似文献
17.
《Marine Policy》2017
The fisheries sector is a significant contributor to the Egyptian economy. Recently, issues relating to fishing ports have been highlighted in port planning, availability of facilities, management, and environmental issues. Additional problems include Egypt's lack of specific guidelines for planning and design of fishing ports. This paper aims to assess the current status of five fishing ports (both natural and artificial) located along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Data were collected via a questionnaire supplied directly to the fishermen. The questionnaire contains two sections that cover information regarding the fishermen and fishing vessels. There are sections to assess the degree of satisfaction of the fishermen regarding economic, environmental, planning, facilities, and managerial issues. 250 fishermen received the questionnaire. The data were analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively. The results confirm that the fishing ports are negatively affected by a number issues, as well as management deficiencies, resulting in several weaknesses. The main issues include pollution, sedimentation, deterioration of infrastructure, and lack of port facilities. It is recommended that decision-makers should develop monitoring tools and improve infrastructure and services. Recommendations are made for future development to enable the expansion in the fishing industry and improve the sustainability of fishing ports. 相似文献
18.
针对热红外遥感图像由于低对比度、条带噪声、低空间分辨率等特点而导致的检测效果不佳问题,提出了一种近岸舰船目标尺度自适应选择分层多阈值检测方法。采用舰船模板图像尺度归一化高斯拉普拉斯函数取极大值准则进行尺度自适应选择,利用所选的高斯多尺度空间差分多阈值筛选进行近岸舰船检测,并根据不同类型舰船模板图像尺度和分块数选择对热红外图像舰船目标检测的影响进行验证实验。实验结果表明:所提方法能根据模板尺度特征滤除相似区域,通过设置合理尺度和阈值参数能实现有效检测,且具有一定的抗噪能力。 相似文献
19.
Design Curves for Mooring Lines of Turret Mooring Systems 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Gao Jie Tan Jiahua Chen Xiaohong
Associate Professor Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai
Professor Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai
Lecturer Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai 《中国海洋工程》1997,(4)
This paper presents a series of design curves to aid in the selection of turret mooring systemsfor tankers based Floating Production Storage and Offloading(FPSO)systems.These curves are appropri-ate to water depths ranging from 100m to 600m.The curves can be used as a preliminary design tool,al-lowing the designer to quickly evaluate alternative mooring system configurations,including the numberof mooring lines,the characteristics of chain and wire rope to be deployed and the initial tension.With aknowledge of the total environmental force and vessel motion characteristics,the designer can determinethe appropriate system for closer evaluation. 相似文献
20.
Quality control in mud coring 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
W. R. Parker 《Geo-Marine Letters》1991,11(3-4):132-137
Consideration of factors influencing the interaction between a corer and sediment suggest the likelihood of significant and
anisotropic straining of the particle framework during coring. Direct observations allow the coring process to be discretised,
the relative motion of corer, core and sediment to be visualized and confirm that the development of differences between corer
penetration and core length is not a continuous process. Records suggest the possibility of dislocation of the relative positions
of porewater and particle framework, which may lead to the disequilibration of sorbed species. 相似文献