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1.
马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计Mw 7.5、Mw 8.1和Mw 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, Mw 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; Mw 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; Mw 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构... 相似文献
2.
Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province. 相似文献
3.
Bathing beaches are usually the first to suffer disasters when tsunamis occur, owing to their proximity to the sea. Several large seismic fault zones are located off the coast of China. The impact of each tsunami scenario on Chinese bathing beaches is different. In this study, numerical models of the worst tsunami scenarios associated with seismic fault zones were considered to assess the tsunami hazard of bathing beaches in China. Numerical results show that tsunami waves from the Pacific Ocean could affect the East China Sea coast through gaps between the Ryukyu Islands. The Zhejiang and Shanghai coasts would be threatened by a tsunami from Ryukyu Trench, and the coasts of Hainan and Guangdong provinces would be threatened by a tsunami from the Manila Trench. The tsunami hazard associated with the Philippine Trench scenario needs particular attention. Owing to China’s offshore topography, the sequential order of tsunami arrival times to coastal provinces in several tsunami scenarios is almost the same. According to the tsunami hazard analysis results, Yalongwan Beach and eight other bathing beaches are at the highest hazard level. A high-resolution numerical calculation model was established to analyze the tsunami physical characteristics for the high-risk bathing beaches. To explore mitigating effects of a tsunami disaster, this study simulated tsunami propagation with the addition of seawalls. The experimental results show that the tsunami prevention seawalls constructed in an appropriate shallow water location have some effect on reducing tsunami hazard. Seawalls separated by a certain distance work even better. The analysis results can provide a scientific reference for subsequent preventive measures such as facility construction and evacuation. 相似文献
4.
2011 年11 月, 联合国教科文组织政府间海洋学委员会(IOC/UNESCO)发起了代号为“Exercise Pacific Wave 11”的跨国海啸演习, 演习区域为整个太平洋海区。中国应邀参加了本次演习, 演习在我国海域地震带上假设了两个震源, 分别位于琉球海沟和马尼拉海沟。为了评估这两个潜在海啸对我国的影响, 本文采用数值模拟的方式, 对其进行了计算。计算结果表明: 这两处震源所引发的海啸均能对我国造成灾害性影响, 受影响严重的省市有江苏、上海、浙江、福建、广东和海南等; 从传播时间图上看, 若发生大海啸, 海啸波将在5 h 内, 陆续影响沿海各省市; 相比琉球海沟, 马尼拉海沟震源产生的海啸会更快到达我国沿岸。 相似文献
5.
深圳海域潮汐海啸波耦合数值研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
以COMCOT海啸模式和TPXO7.1全球潮汐模式为基础,采用三层嵌套网格,建立了南海海啸与潮汐耦合计算模型,分析深圳海域海啸和潮汐相互作用。潮汐计算结果与实测数据吻合较好,高、低潮位平均误差小于15 cm,20 cm;在潮汐验证的基础上,以马尼拉海沟潜在地震海啸源为案例,进行8.0,9.0级地震海啸与潮汐耦合情景模拟计算,计算结果表明,9级地震海啸在深圳海域外海波高为140~150 cm,如先行波为正波发生在高潮时将产生异常高潮位,负波发生在低潮时将产生异常低潮位,线性叠加计算结果偏大,在25.0 cm之内,到达时间差异小于6 min。 相似文献
6.
南海潜在海啸灾害的模拟 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
结合南海海域的地形条件、地质构造、地震学特征以及历史地震记录，在回顾总结国内外学者研究的基础上，分析了南海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域，并讨论了在我国南海沿岸发生海啸灾害的潜在可能性。采用目前在国际上广泛使用的COMCOT海啸模式，对马尼拉海沟的潜在地震引发的海啸进行了数值模拟计算，计算中包含了由地震参数到海面初始变形的转换、海啸的深水传播过程以及海啸的浅水传播过程。采用三重嵌套网格，外层网格对应于大范围的深水区域，使用球坐标系下的线性控制方程；第二层网格对应中等范围的较浅水区域，使用球坐标系下的非线性控制方程；第三层网格对应小范围的浅水区域，使用直角坐标系下的非线性控制方程。由模拟计算得到的海啸传时分布、近岸海面升降强度、四个特定点上海面高度随时间变化等的结果表明,我国南海沿岸遭受海啸袭击的可能性是存在的，应进一步对南海海啸进行监测、预警和研究。COMCOT模式性能良好，可用于对南海潜在地震海啸的进一步模拟研究。 相似文献
7.
In this paper the aim is to investigate whether there are differences between the dispersion and non-dispersion solutions on tsunami propagation. For this purpose, two numerical models of tsunami propagation are compared. One of these numerical models is a nondispersive model that uses Saint Venant equations and the other is a dispersive model that uses Boussinesq equations. The tsunamis resulting from a submarine mass failure (SMF) which is settled at the bottom of the north eastern Sea of Marmara are examined. An analytical solution considering wave dispersion is developed for obtaining near-field tsunami amplitudes above the submarine mass failure. Numerical modeling is used at the sea surface from the common boundary called as liquid boundary with incident waves up to the coastal regions to get the tsunami amplitudes. The output of the analytical model is taken as the disturbances for the numerical method. In the numerical solutions TELEMAC-2D software system is used for both dispersive and nondispersive modeling. The results of the dispersive and nondispersive models are compared to each other. Both temporal and spatial differences in the amplitudes and wave shapes are examined. The obtained results demonstrate that there are no noticeable differences between the dispersion and non-dispersion solutions except some special cases and some special landslide velocities. 相似文献
8.
浙江沿海潜在区域地震海啸风险分析 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示,大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15%以内,表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源,通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险,计算结果表明,海啸波产生后可在3~8h内传至浙江省沿岸,海啸波达1~3m,最大可达4m,此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ~Ⅳ级海啸风险,达到淹没至严重淹没等级。 相似文献
9.
“3.11”日本地震海啸及南海和琉球群岛假想地震海啸对福建近海影响的数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
福建地处西北太平洋沿岸,在环太平洋地震带附近,是海啸灾害潜在风险区.＂3.11＂日本地震海啸,福建沿岸验潮站就监测到其海啸波.利用CTSU地震海啸数值模式,模拟了＂3.11＂日本地震海啸对福建近海的影响,模拟结果与实况较吻合.同时,利用该数值模式模拟分析了可能来自于琉球群岛和南海附近海域的地震海啸对福建近海的影响,分析表明,如果在琉球群岛海域（28.0°N,129.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4.5 h左右抵达福建北部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达2 m;如果在马尼拉海沟附近海域（17.5°N,119.0°E）发生8.8级地震,引发的海啸波将在4 h左右抵达福建南部海岸,最大海啸波幅可达3 m,均会给福建沿海地区带来灾害性影响.为此,本文亦针对性提出了防范地震海啸的一些措施与建议,为福建省海洋防灾减灾提供参考. 相似文献
10.
南海海啸在泰国湾海域的共振响应 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
马尼拉海沟具备引发地震海啸的条件,是南中国海主要的潜在海啸发生区。南中国海西南部泰国湾海域和纳土纳海域地形复杂、多独立的半封闭水域,海啸波极易在该区域形成水波共振,加剧其灾害影响。采用COMCOT海啸模型模拟了马尼拉海沟断裂带发生9.3级地震时引发海啸的长时间传播过程,并基于水波共振理论分析其在不同尺度下的共振特性。结果表明,海啸波在曼谷湾至邦加—勿里洞岛间引起了明显的纵向第一、二模态(3 360.0 min、1 440.0 min)水波共振,在泰国湾至邦加—勿里洞岛之间引起了明显的纵向第二、三、四模态(775.4 min、560.0 min、373.3 min)共振,而在泰国湾至印度尼西亚沿岸引起了明显的纵向第二、三、五、七模态(1 008.0 min、630.0 min、373.3 min、252.0 min)水波共振。此外,海啸波不仅在泰国湾引起了明显的纵向第一、三、四模态(560. 0 min、252. 0 min、179. 4 min)共振,还在其横向出现了明显的第一、二、三模态(480.0 min、252.0 min、179.4 min)共振。 相似文献
11.
越洋海啸的数值模拟及其对我国的影响分析 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
简要介绍了地震海啸产生的物理机制、海啸波在大洋中的传播特性以及海啸所具有的超强破坏力可能引发的巨大灾害;概述了全球地震海啸发生的频率和太平洋区域历史海啸的时空分布;整理分析了我国沿海发生海啸的频次和空间分布。针对越洋海啸传播的特点,采用基于波浪追逐原理和自适应网格加密技术的海啸数值模型对1960智利海啸进行了数值模拟,将模拟的结果与历史记录进行了对比,验证了模型的可靠性。通过对数值模拟结果的分析,初步讨论了我国沿海地区越洋海啸的危险性,并定量阐述了越洋海啸对我国各海区的影响。 相似文献
12.
A. Hayir B. Seseogullari İ. Kilinc A. Erturk H.K. Cigizoglu M.S. Kabdasli O. Yagci K. Day 《Coastal Engineering》2008
In this paper the tsunamis resulting from a submarine mass failure such as slides and slumps triggered by earthquakes or other environmental effects, which is settled at the bottom of the north eastern Sea of Marmara are examined in one sample region. As the solution method, one hybrid method is developed. The main objective of this method is to combine an analytical solution presenting near-field tsunami amplitudes above the submarine mass failure with a numerical solution indicating the tsunami amplitudes in the coastal regions. For this purpose, one common linear boundary between analytical and numerical solution domains is defined. Movements of Submarine Mass Failures (SMF) are modeled using one simple kinematics source model and the amplitudes of the tsunamis at the region that are closer to the landslide are computed by using the analytical method. SMF is modeled approximately from the bottom geometry, and an average depth is used. Scenarios of SMF are established depending on the velocities and thicknesses of the failure, and near-field tsunami amplitudes are obtained in the open sea during the source time. After the source times, the solutions are found in the numerical region using TELEMAC-2D software system with the mentioned boundary above. In this boundary, the output of the analytical solutions is taken as the boundary conditions or the disturbances for the numerical method. With these disturbances, the numerical method is performed and the amplitudes are calculated in the coastal area. The generation, propagation and coastal amplifications of the tsunamis are illustrated at some certain points and regions both in the open sea and near the coast line. The results have been visualized and discussed. 相似文献
13.
我国南海历史性水域线的地质特征 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
40a的海洋地质、地球物理实测研究表明,九段线不仅是显示我国南海主权的历史性水域线,而且总体上也是南海与东部、南部和西部陆区及岛区的巨型地质边界线。根据实测数据,本文将从地质成因、来源、演化的角度论述此南海历史性水域线的合理性。主要结论包括:历史性水域线的东段在地形上基本与马尼拉海沟一致,海沟西侧为南海中央海盆洋壳区,东侧为菲律宾群岛。根据国际地质研究的资料,菲律宾群岛始新世以前位于较偏南的纬度,后来于中晚中新世(距今16~10Ma)仰冲于南海中央海盆之上,因此菲律宾群岛是一个外来群岛。而黄岩岛在马尼拉海沟以西,是中央海盆洋壳区的一个岛礁,与菲律宾群岛成因不同。南海历史性水域线的南段在地形上基本与南沙海槽一致,伴随南沙地块由北部陆缘向南裂离,古南海洋壳沿此海槽以南俯冲至加里曼丹岛陆壳之下,因此南沙地块与加里曼丹陆块为两个来历不同的地块。南海历史性水域线西段的分布在地形上与越东巨型走滑断裂带基本一致,可能与西沙地块、中沙地块、南沙地块从南海北部陆缘向南滑移有关。南沙地块北缘陡直的正断层结构,突显中央海盆是拉裂形成,其基底和中新生代地层与北部珠江口盆地的地层结构可以对比,说明南沙岛礁原属我国华南大陆南缘,后因南海的形成裂离至现今的位置。 相似文献
14.
The linear model of long waves is used for the evaluation of the parameters of tsunami waves along the South Coast of Crimea,
in the near-Kerch zone, and near the northeast coast of the Black Sea. Our numerical investigations are carried out for 24
probable locations of the elliptic zones of tsunami generation over the continental slope of the basin. The amplitude characteristics
of tsunamis are computed for 27 sites of the Black-Sea coast. It is shown that significant strengthening of tsunami waves
is possible in the course of their propagation toward the coast. The highest waves are formed at the sites of the coast closest
to the seismic source. The dependence of the intensity of tsunami waves along the Black-Sea coast on the location of the seismic
source and its magnitude is analyzed. 相似文献
15.
Examining bathymetric and seismic reflection data collected from the deep-sea region between Taiwan and Luzon in 2006 and
2008, we identified a connection between a submarine canyon, a deep-sea channel, and an oceanic trench in the northern South
China Sea. The seafloor of the South China Sea north of 21°N is characterized by two broad slopes: the South China Sea Slope
to the west, and the Kaoping Slope to the east, intersected by the prominent Penghu Canyon. This negative relief axis parallels
the strike of the Taiwan orogen, extends downslope in an approx. N–S direction, and eventually merges with the northern Manila
Trench via a hitherto unidentified channel. The discovery of this channel is pivotal, because it allows connecting the Penghu
Canyon to the Manila Trench. This channel is 80 km long and 20–30 km wide, with water depths of 3,500–4,000 m. The progressive
morphological changes recorded in the aligned canyon, channel, and trench suggest that they represent three distinct segments
of the same longitudinal sediment conduit from southern Taiwan to the northern Manila Trench. Major sediment input would be
via the Kaoping Canyon and Kaoping Slope, with a smaller contribution from the South China Sea Slope. We determined the northern
end of the Manila Trench to be located at about 20°15′N, 120°15′E, where sediment accumulation has produced a bathymetry shallower
than 4,000 m, thereby abruptly terminating the trench morphology. Comparison with existing data reveals a similarity with,
for example, the Papua New Guinea–Solomon Sea Plate convergent zone, another modern analog of a mountain source to oceanic
sink longitudinal sediment transport system comprising canyon–channel–trench interconnections. 相似文献
16.
海啸波对近岸岛礁影响的数值模拟研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于Okada有限断层模型和非线性浅水波方程,结合高精度嵌套网格建立了越洋（中国近海）-局部-近岸岛礁的海啸生成与传播的数值模型。以三亚凤凰岛为例,首先针对2011日本地震海啸,模拟分析了海啸波沿中国沿海大陆架的传播特征及对凤凰岛的影响规律。在取得验证结果的基础上,进一步讨论了中国近海的马尼拉海沟和琉球海沟的潜在海啸源,以及环太平洋的21个潜在特大越洋海啸对凤凰岛的影响特征。依据海啸波在抵达凤凰岛的波浪特征,结合傅里叶频谱分析方法,探索了近岸岛礁对海啸波的放大效应。结果表明,中国近海一般震级的海啸和特大越洋海啸对凤凰岛存在一定影响,最大波幅接近1 m,传播时间从3 h到27 h不等。受三亚东南半岛的影响,琉球海沟激发的海啸和越洋海啸在凤凰岛的放大效应相对于马尼拉海沟较小,其频率集中在0.8×10-4~2×10-4 Hz。马尼拉海沟产生的海啸波在凤凰岛产生了较为显著的放大效应,对于凤凰岛是值得关注的高风险海啸源。 相似文献
17.
2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况, 并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响特性。2016年全年国家海洋环境预报中心总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期, 没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸, 以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律, 模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件, 本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响; 针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸, 探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。 相似文献
18.
Geological Characteristics and Distribution of Submarine Physiographic Features in the Taiwan Region
Ho-Shing Yu 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2003,21(3):139-153
The sea floor topography around Taiwan is characterized by the asymmetry of its shallow and flat shelves to the west and markedly deep troughs and basins to the south and east. Tectonics and sedimentation are major controls in forming the submarine physiographic features around Taiwan. Three Pliocene-Quaternary shelves are distributed north and west of Taiwan: East China Sea Shelf (passive margin shelf), the Taiwan Strait Shelf (foreland shelf), and Kaoping Shelf (island shelf) from north to south parallel to the strike of Taiwan orogen. Off northeastern Taiwan major morpho/tectonic features associated with plate subduction include E-W trending Ryukyu Trench, Yaeyama accretionary wedge, forearc basins, the Ryukyu Arcs, and the backarc basin of southern Okinawa Trough. Off eastern Taiwan lies the deep Huatung Basin on the Philippine Sea plate with a relatively flat floor, although several large submarine canyons are eroding and crossing the basin floor. Off southeastern Taiwan, the forearc region of the Luzon Arc has been deformed into five alternating N-S trending ridges and troughs during initial arc-continent collision. Among them, the submarine Hengchun Ridge is the seaward continuation of the Hengchun peninsula in southern Taiwan. Off southwestern Taiwan, the broad Kaoping Slope is the major submarine topographic feature with several noticeable submarine canyons. The Penghu Canyon separates this slope from the South China Sea Slope to the west and merges southwards into the Manila Trench in the northern South China Sea. Although most of sea floors of the Taiwan Strait are shallower than 60 m in water depth, there are three noticeable bathymetric lows and two highs in the Taiwan Strait. There exists a close relationship between hydrography and topography in the Taiwan Strait. The circulation of currents in the Taiwan Strait is strongly influenced by seasonal monsoon and semidiurnal tides. The Penghu Channel-Yunchang Ridge can be considered a modern tidal depositional system. The Taiwan Strait shelf has two phases of development. The early phase of the rift margin has developed during Paleoocene-Miocene and it has evolved to the foreland basin in Pliocene-Quaternary time. The present shelf morphology results mainly from combined effects of foreland subsidence and modern sedimentation overprinting that of the Late Pleistocene glaciation about 15,000 years ago. 相似文献
19.
Geological Characteristics and Distribution of Submarine Physiographic Features in the Taiwan Region
《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2013,31(3-4):139-153
The sea floor topography around Taiwan is characterized by the asymmetry of its shallow and flat shelves to the west and markedly deep troughs and basins to the south and east. Tectonics and sedimentation are major controls in forming the submarine physiographic features around Taiwan. Three Pliocene-Quaternary shelves are distributed north and west of Taiwan: East China Sea Shelf (passive margin shelf), the Taiwan Strait Shelf (foreland shelf), and Kaoping Shelf (island shelf) from north to south parallel to the strike of Taiwan orogen. Off northeastern Taiwan major morpho/tectonic features associated with plate subduction include E-W trending Ryukyu Trench, Yaeyama accretionary wedge, forearc basins, the Ryukyu Arcs, and the backarc basin of southern Okinawa Trough. Off eastern Taiwan lies the deep Huatung Basin on the Philippine Sea plate with a relatively flat floor, although several large submarine canyons are eroding and crossing the basin floor. Off southeastern Taiwan, the forearc region of the Luzon Arc has been deformed into five alternating N-S trending ridges and troughs during initial arc-continent collision. Among them, the submarine Hengchun Ridge is the seaward continuation of the Hengchun peninsula in southern Taiwan. Off southwestern Taiwan, the broad Kaoping Slope is the major submarine topographic feature with several noticeable submarine canyons. The Penghu Canyon separates this slope from the South China Sea Slope to the west and merges southwards into the Manila Trench in the northern South China Sea. Although most of sea floors of the Taiwan Strait are shallower than 60?m in water depth, there are three noticeable bathymetric lows and two highs in the Taiwan Strait. There exists a close relationship between hydrography and topography in the Taiwan Strait. The circulation of currents in the Taiwan Strait is strongly influenced by seasonal monsoon and semidiurnal tides. The Penghu Channel-Yunchang Ridge can be considered a modern tidal depositional system. The Taiwan Strait shelf has two phases of development. The early phase of the rift margin has developed during Paleoocene-Miocene and it has evolved to the foreland basin in Pliocene-Quaternary time. The present shelf morphology results mainly from combined effects of foreland subsidence and modern sedimentation overprinting that of the Late Pleistocene glaciation about 15,000 years ago. 相似文献
20.
海啸波传播的线性和非线性特征及近海陆架效应影响的数值研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
浅水方程被广泛应用于海啸预警报业务及研究,而针对线性浅水方程与非线性浅水方程在不同海区水深地形条件下的适用范围、计算效率问题是海啸研究人员急需了解的。本文应用基于浅水方程的海啸数值预报模型就海啸波在南海、东海传播的线性、非线性特征以及陆架对其传播之影响进行了数值分析研究。海啸波在深水的传播表征为强线性特征,此时线性系统对海啸波幅的模拟计算具有较高的精度和效率,而弱的非线性特征及弱的色散特征对海啸波幅的预报影响甚微,可以忽略不计。海啸波传播至浅水大陆架后受海底坡度变化、海底粗糙度等因素影响,波动的非线性效应迅速传播、积累,与线性浅水方程计算的海啸波相比表现出较大差异,主要表现为:在南海区,水深小于100m时,海啸波首波以后的系列波动非线性特征比较明显,两者波幅差别较大,但首波波幅的区别不大,因此对于该区域在不考虑海啸爬高的情况下,应用线性系统计算得到的海啸波幅也可满足海啸预警报的要求;在东海区由于陆架影响,海啸波非线性特征明显增强,水深小于100m区域,首波及其后系列波波幅均差异较大,故在该区域必须考虑海啸波非线性作用。本文就底摩擦项对海啸波首波波幅的影响进行了数值对比分析,结果表明:底摩擦作用对海啸波首波波幅影响仅作用于小于100m水深。最后,该文通过敏感性试验,初步分析了陆架宽度及陆架边缘深度对海啸波波幅的影响,得出海啸波经陆架传播共振、变形后,海啸波幅的放大或减小与陆架的宽度及陆架边缘水深有关。 相似文献