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1.
Understanding uncertainty and reducing vulnerability: lessons from resilience thinking 总被引：3，自引：4，他引：3
Fikret Berkes 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(2):283-295
Vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards alone; it also resides in the resilience of the system experiencing
the hazard. Resilience (the capacity of a system to absorb recurrent disturbances, such as natural disasters, so as to retain
essential structures, processes and feedbacks) is important for the discussion of vulnerability for three reasons: (1) it
helps evaluate hazards holistically in coupled human–environment systems, (2) it puts the emphasis on the ability of a system
to deal with a hazard, absorbing the disturbance or adapting to it, and (3) it is forward-looking and helps explore policy
options for dealing with uncertainty and future change. Building resilience into human–environment systems is an effective
way to cope with change characterized by surprises and unknowable risks. There seem to be four clusters of factors relevant
to building resilience: (1) learning to live with change and uncertainty, (2) nurturing various types of ecological, social
and political diversity for increasing options and reducing risks, (3) increasing the range of knowledge for learning and
problem-solving, and (4) creating opportunities for␣self-organization, including strengthening of local institutions and building
cross-scale linkages and problem-solving networks. 相似文献
2.
Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China. 相似文献
3.
The Islands of Réunion and Mayotte are French territories in the Indian Ocean and are prone to numerous and recurrent hazards
as well as to increasing vulnerabilities. This paper examines disaster risk reduction on non-sovereign islands through the
case studies of Réunion and Mayotte. The approach used is embedded in standard geographical approaches to risk analysis, focusing
on place-based vulnerability, in order to understand disaster risk and disaster risk reduction on both islands. In addition
to establishing baseline information and visiting both islands for further data, 21 semi-structured individual interviews
were completed to understand the people’s perceptions of the hazards and of their vulnerabilities. Disaster risk reduction
strategies, and attitudes from governing bodies implementing the strategies, tend to assume similar vulnerability contexts
as mainland France, despite obvious differences on the islands. Many policies are implemented in a top–down manner by those
from mainland France who have little interest in, and who do not fully take into consideration, local realities. This paper
contributes new case studies to the literature, especially in comparing two non-Anglophone non-sovereign islands, and reinforces
recommendations factoring in local contexts when addressing ‘vulnerability of a place’ to disasters. 相似文献
4.
Natural disasters can neither be predicted nor prevented. Urban areas with a high population density coupled with the construction
of man-made structures are subjected to greater levels of risk to life and property in the event of natural hazards. One of
the major and densely populated urban areas in the east coast of India is the city of Chennai (Madras), which was severely
affected by the 2004 Tsunami, and mitigation efforts were severely dampened due to the non-availability of data on the vulnerability
on the Chennai coast to tsunami hazard. Chennai is prone to coastal hazards and hence has hazard maps on its earth-quake prone
areas, cyclone prone areas and flood prone areas but no information on areas vulnerable to tsunamis. Hence, mapping has to
be done of the areas where the tsunami of December 2004 had directly hit and flooded the coastal areas in Chennai in order
to develop tsunami vulnerability map for coastal Chennai. The objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tsunami vulnerability
map for Chennai by using a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements
of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004. World-renowned and the second-longest tourist beach in the world
“Marina” present in this region witnessed maximum death toll due to its flat topography, resulting in an inundation of about
300 m landward with high flow velocity of the order of 2 m/s. 相似文献
5.
China has experienced considerable migration from inland to coastal areas since the reforms of 1978, with migrants becoming
an important population in many coastal cities. Compared with non-migrants (long-term residents), migrant vulnerability to
typhoons is considered high due to limited access to job opportunities, social security, information, and other resources;
however, there is no research on vulnerability of this population sector to natural hazards. This initial study analysed the
perceptions and personal experiences of migrants living in Shanghai of typhoon hazards. During May 2010, empirical data were
collected using an online questionnaire and face–face interviews. Response data indicated that risk knowledge of migrants
was significantly lower than among non- migrants; differing risk perceptions between the groups were consistent with levels
of personal typhoon experience; statistically significant differences in hazard knowledge within the sample also related to
education and occupation; a variety of strategies to cope with typhoon hazards was being applied by residential committees;
and that migrants were not generally recognised as a vulnerable group requiring special consideration in hazard risk management.
To reduce the vulnerability of migrants to typhoons, we recommend expanding the range of accessible communication technologies
distributing warning information; organising more educational and training programmes, at government and corporate level,
to increase community awareness of natural hazards; encouraging local residential committees to promote social networks and
engagement for migrants; and providing corporate incentives to develop insurances specifically for migrant needs. Further
research is necessary to assess the differences in vulnerability between different types of migrants. 相似文献
6.
James K. Mitchell 《GeoJournal》1995,37(3):303-311
Changes in global urbanization and emerging patterns of disaster losses suggest that it may now be time to refocus the hazards research agenda on problems of very large cities. The resolution of urban disaster issues will require development of new collaborative strategies between victims, researchers, managers, policy makers and stakeholders in the hazards community and their counterparts in other urban interest groups. The experience of megacities in the United States and elsewhere that have been affected by recent major disasters and continuing hazards is examined to identify opportunities for initiating new policies and programs. Implications for hazard research and the concept of urban sustainability are noted.This paper is based on presentations to the International Symposium on Urban Growth and Natural Hazards, Universite Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand, France, December 2–3 and the annual conference of the Institute of British Geographers, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, 3–4 January, 1995. It also draws on material which is more fully reported in the forthcoming bookMegacity and Natural Disasters to be published by the United Nations University Press. 相似文献
7.
Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries. 相似文献
8.
Analysis of social vulnerability to hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
To improve natural disaster management, it is important to recognize the variability of the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop location-based emergency plans accordingly. This paper presents a mathematical model to establish a model of social vulnerability index (SoVI), which includes 12 social variables, and the regional social vulnerability to natural hazards was formulated by them. Taking a city as statistical unit, the variability of vulnerability to natural hazards was explored among the 323 cities based on the SoVI. The results indicate that vulnerability is a location-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities being located in the southwest of China and the eastern areas being generally less vulnerable. The results will be helpful for policy makers to formulate disaster management plans, which can be beneficial for people in more vulnerable areas who are responding to, coping with, and recovering from natural disasters. 相似文献
9.
George D. Bathrellos Kalliopi Gaki-Papanastassiou Hariklia D. Skilodimou Dimitrios Papanastassiou Konstantinos G. Chousianitis 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(2):537-548
During the planning of an urban environment, usually only economic and social parameters are taken into account. As a result,
urban areas are susceptible to natural disasters, which cause extensive damages in them, because the cities or towns have
been repeatedly located in vulnerable areas. In this study, for the protection of human environment, is proposed a unique
approach of urban planning and sustainable development. The study area is Trikala Prefecture (Western Thessaly, Central Greece).
An integrated evaluation of the suitable areas for urban growth and light industry development is proposed by using mainly
natural hazards as well as geological–geomorphological–geographical characteristics of the study area. The used parameters
were correlated by using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method and incorporated into a geographic information system
(GIS) in order to produce the corresponding suitability maps. The study area is classified in five categories of very high,
high, moderate, low, and very low suitability for urban growth and industrial development. Moreover, the spatio-temporal changes
of the urban limits are studied since 1885 for the three major towns (Trikala, Kalambaka and Pyli) of the study area. These
changes sketch out the urban growth trend. The comparison between the urban growth trend with the potential suitability for
urban growth and industrial development of these towns lead to discrepancies. These can be attributed mainly to the fact that
in the majority of cases, only geographical, social, and economical factors were used for urban development, whereas in our
study, natural hazards, geomorphological, and geographical parameters were quantified and taken into account. 相似文献
10.
Yong Shi 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):1189-1203
Waterlogging is one of the most serious hazards in cities. People are the core of the human social system and the main group affected by disasters. This research introduces a method of scenario simulation which provides a basis for the accurate measurement of exposure to waterlogging. Then based on the concept and structure of vulnerability, representative indicators are selected to develop an indicator system based on objective weights derived from principal components analysis. The method is then used to conduct a population vulnerability assessment in Xuhui District of Shanghai city based on scenario simulation of rainstorm-induced waterlogging over a 50-year period. The final assessment results show that the population vulnerability is greatest for Tianlin Street, Lingyun Street, Changqiao Street, Fenglin Street, and Caohejing Street, while Tianping Street, Xujiahui Street, and Xietulu Street have medium levels of vulnerability. Hongmei Road Street, Healthy Village Street, Longhua Street, and Hunan Road Street have low levels of vulnerability, and Huajing Town is the area with the lowest population vulnerability. The results provide both necessary information and guidance for the government to improve the flood management. 相似文献
11.
P. J. Ward M. A. Marfai F. Yulianto D. R. Hizbaron J. C. J. H. Aerts 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(3):899-916
Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors
to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised
that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point,
since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future
coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed
assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and
1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these
events increases by a factor 4–5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly
due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario
for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above
which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical
user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need
for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases
in damage exposure. 相似文献
12.
Megacities are likely to present the greatest future challenges for hazard management. In them increasingly complex societies are continually modifying responses to dynamic sets of external risks. Although most have proven resilient to past disasters, new types of threat are emerging. London — which is both the world's oldest megacity and one of its most resilient — has long experience of the transformation of hazards in time and space. Although not as hazard-prone as some megacities, this one is increasingly exposed to a wide range of interactive hazards. Here trends of flooding, air pollution and terrorism are discussed together with policy responses. London demonstrates that robust action can be successful in reducing high-intensity hazards but it also shows that contemporary management is characterised by top-down technological fixes whose long-term effectiveness is questionable. In general, anticipatory responses have been limited and present-day London has not capitalised on its rich legacy of successful experience in coping with hazard. 相似文献
13.
我国雷电灾害及相关因素分析 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
为了更好地揭示雷电灾害的时空分布规律和成因机制过程,在1997—2006年全国雷电灾害数据库和星载闪电探测数据的基础上,分析研究了雷电灾害及相关因素的特征,包括雷电灾情、孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体及其相互作用,得到以下一些结果:①雷灾事故数、雷灾人员伤亡数与我国不同地区的致灾因子(闪电活动)、承灾体(人口和经济发展现况)成正相关;雷电灾情不同类型与承灾体类型(城乡人口比例、经济发展现况)有密切关系;②我国雷电灾情和闪电活动的时间特征是紧密相关的,同时雷电灾情的时间特征与人们的作息时间相关;③不同的孕灾环境下造成雷电伤害人员的方式特征不同,雷击死亡人数在农田最多,而受伤人数在建构筑物内最多;④80%的雷灾伤亡人员事故只涉及1~2人的生命安全,其中1人遭受雷击的占总事件的61%;⑤重大雷灾伤亡事件直接与承灾体的脆弱性有关。 相似文献
14.
Naomi W. Lazarus 《GeoJournal》2014,79(5):635-648
The discussion on the social-ecological dimensions of hazards is constantly evolving. This paper explores the trajectory of research relating to hazards and their impact on vulnerable human populations. Interpretations of disaster risk have included estimating losses in terms of human life and property, and analyzing the social mechanisms in place that exacerbate or mitigate a population’s sensitivity to hazard events. In keeping with recent trends in research relating to disaster risk, the paper focuses on the social dimension of vulnerability and the contribution of social structures and relationships in building community resilience. Institutional frameworks and policies in particular determine the quantity and quality of resources and services available to people that contribute to resilience over time. The hazard-risk-location-model (HRLM) is proposed that is based on re-specifying disaster risk in terms of exposure and coping ability to capture the focus on social vulnerability and resilience. The framework of the HRLM incorporates the following components: (1) linkages within existing social capital; (2) spatial variation in social and institutional frameworks; (3) positive and negative feedbacks; and (4) characteristics of the hazard event. The model contributes to the range of place-based assessments designed to address the human-environmental impacts of hazards and disasters. 相似文献
15.
Most U.S. metropolitan regions have experienced urban “sprawl,” or the outward spreading of urban development from city centers.
For cities lying in areas prone to severe weather, the sprawl phenomenon exposes greater numbers of developed areas and inhabitants
to a variety of thunderstorm hazards. This study’s principal goal is to determine how urbanization growth patterns affect
a region’s vulnerability to severe weather events. To assess how sprawl may impact vulnerability to tornadoes, hail, and convective
wind events, an analysis examining potential loss may be utilized. This study employs two distinct approaches to examine how
the Atlanta area’s rapid and extensive development during the latter half of the twentieth Century has affected its overall
potential exposure to thunderstorm hazards. First, archived census data are used to estimate overall impacts from hypothetical
significant tornado, nontornadic convective wind, and hail events occurring at different time periods throughout several locations
in the Atlanta metropolitan region. Second, economic factors are integrated into the analysis, which assists in determining
how these hypothetical severe event scenarios may have changed from a cost standpoint if they were to occur in 2006 as opposed
to 1960. 相似文献
16.
Multi-hazard risk mapping and assessment on an active volcano: the GRINP project at Mount Cameroon 总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1
Pierre Thierry Laurent Stieltjes Emmanuel Kouokam Pierre Nguéya Paul M. Salley 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(3):429-456
To help improve the safety of its population faced with natural disasters, the Cameroon Government, with the support of the
French Government, initiated a programme of geological risk analysis and mapping on Mount Cameroon. This active volcano is
subject to a variety of hazards: volcanic eruptions, slope instability and earthquakes. Approximately 450,000 people live
or work around this volcano, in an area which includes one of Cameroon’s main economic resources. An original methodology
was used for obtaining the information to reply to questions raised by the authorities. It involves several stages: identifying
the different geological hazard components, defining each phenomenon’s threat matrix by crossing intensity and frequency indices,
mapping the hazards, listing and mapping the exposed elements, analysing their respective values in economic, functional and
strategic terms, establishing typologies for the different element-at-risk groups and assessing their vulnerability to the
various physical pressures produced by the hazard phenomena, and establishing risk maps for each of the major element-at-risk
groups (population, infrastructures, vegetation, atmosphere). At the end of the study we were able (a) to identify the main
critical points within the area, and (b) provide quantified orders of magnitude concerning the dimensions of the risk by producing
a plausible eruption scenario. The results allowed us to put forward a number of recommendations to the Cameroon Government
concerning risk prevention and management. The adopted approach corresponds to a first level of response to the authorities.
Later developments should make it possible to refine the quality of the methodology. 相似文献
17.
Assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step to understand natural hazard risks and to enhance effective response capabilities. Although significant achievements have been made in social vulnerability researches, little is know about the comprehensive profile of regional social vulnerability in China. In this study, the social vulnerability to natural hazards was firstly divided into socioeconomic and built environmental vulnerability. Then, using factor analysis, we identified the dominant factors that influence the provincial social vulnerability in China to natural hazards based on the socioeconomic and built environmental variables in 2000 and 2010 and explored the spatial patterns of social vulnerability. The results indicated that the provincial social vulnerability in China showed significant regional differences. The social vulnerability in the southeastern and eastern regions of China was greater than its northern and central parts over the past decade. Economic status, rural (proportion of agricultural population and percentage of workers employed in primary industries), urbanization, and age structure (children) were the dominant driving forces of variations in provincial socioeconomic vulnerability in two studied years, while lifelines and housing age could explain most of changes in built environmental vulnerability in 2000 and 2010. There were no statistically significant correlations between social vulnerability and disaster losses (p > 0.05), indicating the impact of disasters was also related to the intensity of hazards and exposure. Disaster relief funds allocated to each province of China depended more on its disaster severity than the regional integrated social vulnerability over the past decade. These findings would provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China. 相似文献
18.
CLIVE OPPENHEIMER 《Geology Today》1991,7(1):19-23
Many of the world's most dangerous volcanoes are located in developing countries, which often lack resources for adequate hazard mitigation efforts. Despite technological advances in volcano monitoring, the increasing populations that crowd fertile ash slopes exacerbate the threat of future major volcanic disasters. 相似文献
19.
Iuliana Arma? 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(2):1129-1156
The expansive infrastructure, along with the high population density, makes cities highly vulnerable to the severe impacts of natural hazards. In the context of an explosive increase in value of the damage caused by natural disasters, the need for evaluating and visualizing the vulnerability of urban areas becomes a necessity in helping practitioners and stakeholders in their decision-making processes. The paper presented is a piece of exploratory research. The overall aim is to develop a spatial vulnerability approach to address earthquake risk, using a semi-quantitative model. The model uses the analytical framework of a spatial GIS-based multi-criteria analysis. For this approach, we have chosen Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, based on its high vulnerability to earthquakes due to a rapid urban growth and the advanced state of decay of the buildings (most of the building stock were built between 1940 and 1977). The spatial result reveals a circular pattern, pinpointing as hot spots the Bucharest historic centre (located on a meadow and river terrace, and with aged building stock) and peripheral areas (isolated from the emergency centers and defined by precarious social and economic conditions). In a sustainable development perspective, the example of Bucharest shows how spatial patterns shape the ??vulnerability profile?? of the city, based on which decision makers could develop proper prediction and mitigation strategies and enhance the resilience of cities against the risks resulting from the earthquake hazard. 相似文献
20.
Hazardous industrial sites have always represented a threat for the community often provoking major accidents overcoming the
boundaries of the plants and affecting the surrounding urban areas. If the industrial sites are located in natural hazard-prone
areas, technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating so-called na-tech events which may modify and
increase the impact and the overall damage in the areas around them. Nevertheless, natural and technological hazards are still
treated as two separate issues, and up to now the methods for na-tech risk assessment have been developed mainly for specific
natural hazards, generally restricted to some plant typologies and to the area of the plant itself. Based on a review of the
current na-tech literature, this article illustrates a risk assessment method as a supporting tool for land use planning strategies
aimed at reducing na-tech risk in urban areas. More specifically, a multi attribute decision-making method, combined with
fuzzy techniques, has been developed. The method allows planners to take into account, according to different territorial
units, all the individual na-tech risk factors, measured through both quantitative and qualitative parameters, while providing
them with a na-tech risk index, useful to rank the territorial units and to single out the priority intervention areas. The
method is designed to process information generally available about hazardous plants (safety reports), natural hazards (hazard
maps) and features of urban systems mainly influencing their exposure and vulnerability to na-tech events (common statistical
territorial data). Furthermore, the method implemented into a GIS framework should easily provide planners with comparable
maps to figure out the hazard factors and the main territorial features influencing the exposure and vulnerability of urban
systems to na-tech events. The method has been tested on a middle-sized Municipality in the Campania Region, identified as
2nd class seismic zone, according to the Ordinance 3274/2003, in which a LPG storage plant, classified as a plant with major
accident potential by the Seveso II Directive (art. 9), is located just within the city core. 相似文献