首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 343 毫秒
1.
We present a web service called TNOEPH ( http://asteroid.lowell.edu/)for ephemeris uncertainty prediction and dynamical classification ofshort-arc trans\-neptunian objects (TNOs). User-supplied observations are transformed to a rigorous sky-plane uncertainty map using the technique of statistical orbital ranging. We show examples of thegrowth of ephemeris uncertainty with time, and give the probabilities ofdifferent dynamical classifications for a few short-arc TNOs.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract— We are making an open‐source asteroid orbit computation software package called OpenOrb publicly available. OpenOrb is built on a well‐established Bayesian inversion theory, which means that it is to a large part complementary to orbit‐computation packages currently available. In particular, OpenOrb is the first package that contains tools for rigorously estimating the uncertainties resulting from the inverse problem of computing orbital elements using scarce astrometry. In addition to the well‐known least‐squares method, OpenOrb also contains both Monte‐Carlo (MC) and Markov‐Chain MC (MCMC; Oszkiewicz et al. [2009]) versions of the statistical ranging method. Ranging allows the user to obtain sampled, non‐Gaussian orbital‐element probability‐density functions and is therefore optimized for cases where the amount of astrometry is scarce or spans a relatively short time interval. Ranging‐based methods have successfully been applied to a variety of different problems such as rigorous ephemeris prediction, orbital element distribution studies for transneptunian objects, the computation of invariant collision probabilities between near‐Earth objects and the Earth, detection of linkages between astrometric asteroid observations within an apparition as well as between apparitions, and in the rigorous analysis of the impact of orbital arc length and/or astrometric uncertainty on the uncertainty of the resulting orbits. Tools for making ephemeris predictions and for classifying objects based on their orbits are also available in OpenOrb. As an example, we use OpenOrb in the search for candidate retrograde and/or high‐inclination objects similar to 2008 KV42 in the known population of transneptunian objects that have an observational time span shorter than 30 days.  相似文献   

3.
The orbital evolution of more than 22000 Jupiter-crossing objects under thegravitational influence of planets was investigated. We found that the meancollision probabilities of Jupiter-crossing objects (from initial orbits close tothe orbit of a comet) with the terrestrial planets can differ by more than twoorders of magnitude for different comets. For initial orbital elements close tothose of some comets (e.g., 2P and 10P), about 0.1% of objects got Earth-crossingorbits with semi-major axes a < 2 AU and moved in such orbits for more than a Myr (up to tens or even hundreds of Myrs).Results of our runs testify in favor of at least one of these conclusions: (1) the portionof 1-km former trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) among near-Earth objects (NEOs)can exceed several tens of percent, (2) the number of TNOs migrating inside the solarsystem could be smaller by a factor of several than it was earlier considered, (3) mostof 1-km former TNOs that had got NEO orbits disintegrated into mini-comets and dustduring a smaller part of their dynamical lifetimes if these lifetimes are not small.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract— We present a novel Markov‐Chain Monte‐Carlo orbital ranging method (MCMC) for poorly observed single‐apparition asteroids with two or more observations. We examine the Bayesian a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements using methods that map a volume of orbits in the orbital‐element phase space. In particular, we use the MCMC method to sample the phase space in an unbiased way. We study the speed of convergence and also the efficiency of the new method for the initial orbit computation problem. We present the results of the MCMC ranging method applied to three objects from different dynamical groups. We conclude that the method is applicable to initial orbit computation for near‐Earth, main‐belt, and transneptunian objects.  相似文献   

5.
Most extrasolar planets discovered to date are more massive than Jupiter, in surprisingly small orbits (semimajor axes less than 3 AU). Many of these have significant orbital eccentricities. Such orbits may be the product of dynamical interactions in multiplanet systems. We examine outcomes of such evolution in systems of three Jupiter-mass planets around a solar-mass star by integration of their orbits in three dimensions. Such systems are unstable for a broad range of initial conditions, with mutual perturbations leading to crossing orbits and close encounters. The time scale for instability to develop depends on the initial orbital spacing; some configurations become chaotic after delays exceeding 108 y. The most common outcome of gravitational scattering by close encounters is hyperbolic ejection of one planet. Of the two survivors, one is moved closer to the star and the other is left in a distant orbit; for systems with equal-mass planets, there is no correlation between initial and final orbital positions. Both survivors may have significant eccentricities, and the mutual inclination of their orbits can be large. The inner survivor's semimajor axis is usually about half that of the innermost starting orbit. Gravitational scattering alone cannot produce the observed excess of “hot Jupiters” in close circular orbits. However, those scattered planets with large eccentricities and small periastron distances may become circularized if tidal dissipation is effective. Most stars with a massive planet in an eccentric orbit should have at least one additional planet of comparable mass in a more distant orbit.  相似文献   

6.
A substantial fraction of the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt objects are presently known to move in resonance with Neptune (the principal commensurabilities are 1/2, 3/5, 2/3, and 3/4). We have found that many of the distant (with orbital semimajor axes a > 50 AU) trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) also execute resonant motions. Our investigation is based on symplectic integrations of the equations of motion for all multiple-opposition TNOs with a > 50 AU with allowance made for the uncertainties in their initial orbits. Librations near such commensurabilities with Neptune as 4/9, 3/7, 5/12, 2/5, 3/8, 4/27, and others have been found. The largest number of distant TNOs move near the 2/5 resonance with Neptune: 12 objects librate with a probability higher than 0.75. The multiplicity of objects moving in 2/5 resonance and the longterm stability of their librations suggest that this group of resonant objects was formed at early formation stages of the Solar system. For most of the other resonant objects, the librations are temporary. We also show the importance of asymmetric resonances in the large changes in TNO perihelion distances.  相似文献   

7.
We evaluate the asteroid impact risk from the discovery night onwards using six-dimensional statistical orbit computation techniques to examine the a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements. Close to the discovery moment the observational data of an object are typically exiguous: the number of observations is very small and/or the covered orbital arc is very short. For such data, the covariance matrices computed in the linear approximation (e.g., with the least-squares technique) are known to fail to describe the uncertainties in the orbital parameters. The technique of statistical ranging gives us rigorous means to assess the orbital uncertainties already on the discovery night. To examine the time evolution of orbital uncertainties, we make use of a new nonlinear Monte Carlo technique of phase-space sampling using volumes of variation, which complements the ranging technique for exiguous data and the least-squares technique for extensive observational data. We apply the statistical techniques to the near-Earth Asteroid 2004 AS1, which grabbed the attention of asteroid scientists because, for one day, it posed the highest and most immediate impact risk so far recorded. We take this extreme case to illustrate the ambiguities in the impact risk assessment for short arcs. We confirm that the weighted fraction of the collision orbits at discovery was large but conclude that this was mostly due to the discordance of the discovery-night observations. This case study highlights the need to introduce a regularization in terms of an a priori probability density to secure the invariance of the probabilistic analysis especially in the nonlinear orbital inversion for short arcs. We remark that a predominant role of the a priori can give indications of the feasibility of the probabilistic interpretation, that is, how reliable the results derived from the a posteriori probability density are. Nevertheless, the strict mathematical definition of, e.g., the collision probability remains valid, and our nonlinear statistical techniques give us the means to always deduce, at the very least, order-of-magnitude-estimates for the collision probability.  相似文献   

8.
W.M. Grundy  K.S. Noll 《Icarus》2005,176(1):184-191
Discovery of trans-neptunian object (TNO) satellites and determination of their orbits has recently enabled estimation of the size and albedo of several small TNOs, extending the size range of objects having known size and albedo down into the sub-100 km range. In this paper we compute albedo and size estimates or limits for 20 TNOs, using a consistent method for all binary objects and a consistent method for all objects having reported thermal fluxes. As is true for larger TNOs, the small objects show a remarkable diversity of albedos. Although the sample is limited, there do not yet appear to be any trends relating albedo to other observable properties or to dynamical class, with the possible exception of inclination. The observed albedo diversity of TNOs has important implications for computing the size-frequency distribution, the mass, and other global properties of the Kuiper belt derived from observations of objects' apparent magnitudes and may also point the way toward an improved compositional taxonomy based on albedo in addition to color.  相似文献   

9.
Asteroid orbits using phase-space volumes of variation   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
We present a statistical orbit computation technique for asteroids with transitional observational data, that is, a moderate number of data points spanning a moderate observational time interval. With the help of local least-squares solutions in the phase space of the orbital elements, we map the volume of variation as a function of one or more of the elements. We sample the resulting volume using a Monte Carlo technique and, with proper weights for the sample orbital elements, characterize the six-dimensional orbital-element probability density function. The volume-of-variation (VOV) technique complements the statistical ranging technique for asteroids with exiguous observational data (short time intervals and/or small numbers of observations) and the least-squares technique for extensive observational data. We show that, asymptotically, results using the new technique agree closely with those from ranging and least squares. We apply the technique to the near-Earth object 2004 HA39, the main-belt object 2004 QR and the transneptunian object 2002 CX224 recently observed at the Nordic Optical Telescope on La Palma, illustrating the potential of the technique in ephemeris prediction. The VOV technique helps us assess the phase transition in orbital-element probability densities, that is, the non-linear collapse of wide orbital-element distributions to narrow localized ones. For the three objects above, the transition takes place for observational time intervals of the order of 10 h, 5 d and 10 months, respectively, emphasizing the significance of the orbital-arc fraction covered by the observations.  相似文献   

10.
The orbital structure of trans-neptunian objects (TNOs) in the trans-neptunian belt (Edgeworth-Kuiper belt) and scattered disk provides important clues to understand the origin and evolution of the Solar System. To better characterize these populations, we performed computer simulations of currently observed objects using long-arc orbits and several thousands of clones. Our preliminary analysis identified 622 TNOs, and 65 non-resonant objects whose orbits penetrate that of at least one of the giant planets within 1 Myr (the centaurs). In addition, we identified 196 TNOs locked in resonances with Neptune, which, sorted by distance from the Sun, are 1:1 (Neptune trojans), 5:4, 4:3, 11:8, 3:2, 18:11, 5:3, 12:7, 19:11, 7:4, 9:5, 11:6, 2:1, 9:4, 16:7, 7:3, 12:5, 5:2, 8:3, 3:1, 4:1, 11:2, and 27:4. Kozai resonant TNOs are found inside the 3:2, 5:3, 7:4, and 2:1 resonances. We present detailed general features for the resonant populations (i.e., libration amplitude angles, libration centers, Kozai libration amplitudes, etc.). Taking together the simulations of Lykawka and Mukai [Lykawka, P.S., Mukai, T., 2007. Icarus 186, 331-341], an improved classification scheme is presented revealing five main classes: centaurs, resonant, scattered, detached and classical TNOs. Scattered and detached TNOs (non-resonant) have q (perihelion distance) <37 AU and q>40 AU, respectively. TNOs with 37 AU<q<40 AU occupy an intermediate region where both classes coexist. Thus, there are no clear boundaries between the scattered and detached regions. We also securely identified a total of 9 detached TNOs by using 4-5 Gyr orbital integrations. Classical objects are non-resonant TNOs usually divided into cold and hot populations. Their boundaries are as follows: cold classical TNOs (i?5°) are located at 37 AU<a<40 AU (q>37 AU) and 42 AU<a<47.5 AU (q>38 AU), and hot classical TNOs (i>5°) occupy orbits with 37 AU<a<47.5 AU (q>37 AU). However, a more firm classification is found with i>10° for hot classical TNOs. Lastly, we discuss some implications of our classification scheme comparing all TNOs with our model and other past models.  相似文献   

11.
Objects in 3:2 mean motion resonance with Neptune are protected from close encounters with Neptune by the resonance. Bodies in orbits with semi-major axis between 39.5 and about 42 AU are not protected by the resonance; indeed due to overlapping secular resonances, the eccentricities of orbits in this region are driven up so that a close encounter with Neptune becomes inevitable. It is thus expected that such orbits are unstable. The list of known Trans-Neptunian objects shows a deficiency in the number of objects in this gap compared to the 43–50 AU region, but the gap is not empty. We numerically integrate models for the initial population in the gap, and also all known objects over the age of the Solar System to determine what fraction can survive. We find that this fraction is significantly less than the ratio of the population in the gap to that in the main belt, suggesting that some mechanism must exist to introduce new members into the gap. By looking at the evolution of the test body orbits, we also determine the manner in which they are lost. Though all have close encounters with Neptune, in most cases this does not lead to ejection from the Solar System, but rather to a reduced perihelion distance causing close encounters with some or all of the other giant planets before being eventually lost from the system, with Saturn appearing to be the cause of the ejection of most of the objects.  相似文献   

12.
By telescopic tracking, we have established that the transneptunian object (TNO) 2000 CR105 has a semimajor axis of 220±1 AU and perihelion distance of 44.14±0.02 AU, beyond the domain which has heretofore been associated with the “scattered disk” of Kuiper Belt objects interacting via gravitational encounters with Neptune. We have also firmly established that the TNO 1995 TL8 has a high perihelion (of 40.08±0.02 AU). These objects, and two other recent discoveries which appear to have perihelia outside 40 AU, have probably been placed on these orbits by a gravitational interaction which is not strong gravitational scattering off of any of the giant planets on their current orbits. Their existence may thus have profound cosmogonic implications for our understanding of the formation of the outer Solar System. We discuss some viable scenarios which could have produced these objects, including long-term diffusive chaos and scattering off of other massive bodies in the outer Solar System. This discovery implies that there must be a large population of TNOs in an “extended scattered disk” with perihelia above the previously suggested 38 AU boundary. The total population is difficult to estimate due to the ease with which such objects would have been lost. This illustrates the great value of frequent and well time-sampled recovery observations of trans-neptunian objects within their discovery opposition.  相似文献   

13.
We present here the latest B−V, V−R, and R−I color measurements obtained with the CFH12K mosaic camera of the 3.6-m Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). This work is the latest extension of the Meudon Multicolor Survey (2MS) and extends the total number of Centaurs and trans-neptunian objects (TNOs) in the dataset to 71. With this large and homogeneous dataset, we performed relevant statistical analyses to search for correlations with physical and orbital parameters and interrelations with related populations (cometary nuclei and irregular satellites). With a larger dataset, we confirm the correlations found for the Classical TNOs in our previous survey: some colors are significantly correlated with perihelion distance and inclination. The only exception is with the eccentricity. However, results strongly depend on which objects are considered Classicals, and with a dynamically more restricted definition these correlations are no longer present. We also find that strongly significant trends with orbital parameters are not detected for Centaurs, Plutinos or scattered disk objects (SDOs). We also make for the first time reliable statistical comparison between TNOs and related populations (e.g., Centaurs, irregular satellites, short period comets—i.e., SPCs). We find that (1) the colors of SPCs do not match either their TNO or Centaur precursors, and this suggests that some process modifies the surface of SPCs at entry into the inner Solar System. The only exception concerns colors of SDOs from which we could statistically assess that SPCs and SDOs could be drawn from a same single parent distribution. (2) Not surprisingly, Centaurs are compatible with each of the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt dynamical groups at a highly significant level except with the SDOs. (3) Centaurs' colors still present a strong dichotomy between a neutral/slightly red group (e.g., Chiron) and a very red group (e.g., Pholus). (4) The irregular satellite population is not compatible with any of the Centaur, Plutino or Classical populations; however, the similarity of their color properties with SDOs suggests that both groups can be extracted from the same parent distribution. However, due to the small number of Centaurs and SDOs these conclusions cannot be taken as definitive.  相似文献   

14.
We present three improved and five new mutual orbits of transneptunian binary systems (58534) Logos-Zoe, (66652) Borasisi-Pabu, (88611) Teharonhiawako-Sawiskera, (123509) 2000 WK183, (149780) Altjira, 2001 QY297, 2003 QW111, and 2003 QY90 based on Hubble Space Telescope and Keck II laser guide star adaptive optics observations. Combining the five new orbit solutions with 17 previously known orbits yields a sample of 22 mutual orbits for which the period P, semimajor axis a, and eccentricity e have been determined. These orbits have mutual periods ranging from 5 to over 800 days, semimajor axes ranging from 1600 to 37,000 km, eccentricities ranging from 0 to 0.8, and system masses ranging from 2 × 1017 to 2 × 1022 kg. Based on the relative brightnesses of primaries and secondaries, most of these systems consist of near equal-sized pairs, although a few of the most massive systems are more lopsided. The observed distribution of orbital properties suggests that the most loosely-bound transneptunian binary systems are only found on dynamically cold heliocentric orbits. Of the 22 known binary mutual orbits, orientation ambiguities are now resolved for 9, of which 7 are prograde and 2 are retrograde, consistent with a random distribution of orbital orientations, but not with models predicting a strong preference for retrograde orbits. To the extent that other perturbations are not dominant, the binary systems undergo Kozai oscillations of their eccentricities and inclinations with periods of the order of tens of thousands to millions of years, some with strikingly high amplitudes.  相似文献   

15.
  相似文献   

16.
Summary. The trans-neptunian objects (TNOs) constitute a new class of solar system object that was discovered only recently to exist beyond the orbit of Neptune. About 400 trans-neptunian objects have been detected over the past nine years and more than ten new objects are being discovered every month. All of the TNOs known to date fit into three dynamical classes: the classical, the resonant and the scattered objects. The total mass of the TNOs currently orbiting the Sun is estimated from the observed luminosity distribution to be of the order of 10–20% of the Earth's mass. However, theoretical investigations of the formation and evolution of the trans-neptunian belt into its currently observed shape suggest that it was much more massive in the past. The physical characterisation of TNOs starts to reveal some of the basic properties of these objects, such as size, shape and rotation and provides a first glance into the diversity of their surfaces. TNOs cover a very diverse range of colours, possibly reflecting different surface compositions. First evidence for the presence of water ice was found in a spectrum of one TNO while others do not show the characteristic absorption bands. The TNOs are now regarded as the likely source of some short-period comets. Owing to giant-planet and collisional perturbations, some TNOs may evolve into Centaurs, i.e. objects orbiting the Sun in the region between Jupiter and Neptune, which are further perturbed to become Jupiter-family short-period comets. Together with smaller debris generated by collisional shattering, the TNOs might represent a belt that has evolved from a more massive circumstellar disc into its present structure. Received 15 May 2001 / Published online 5 October 2001  相似文献   

17.
We study two and three-dimensional resonant periodic orbits, usingthe model of the restricted three-body problem with the Sun andNeptune as primaries. The position and the stability character ofthe periodic orbits determine the structure of the phase space andthis will provide useful information on the stability and longterm evolution of trans-Neptunian objects. The circular planarmodel is used as the starting point. Families of periodic orbitsare computed at the exterior resonances 1/2, 2/3 and 3/4 withNeptune and these are used as a guide to select the energy levelsfor the computation of the Poincaré maps, so that all basicresonances are included in the study. Using the circular planarmodel as the basic model, we extend our study to more realisticmodels by considering an elliptic orbit of Neptune and introducingthe inclination of the orbit. Families of symmetric periodicorbits of the planar elliptic restricted three-body problem andthe three-dimensional problem are found. All these orbitsbifurcate from the families of periodic orbits of the planarcircular problem. The stability of all orbits is studied. Althoughthe resonant structure in the circular problem is similar for allresonances, the situation changes if the eccentricity of Neptuneor the inclination of the orbit is taken into account. All theseresults are combined to explain why in some resonances there aremany bodies and other resonances are empty.  相似文献   

18.
We present the data acquisition strategy and characterization procedures for the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS), a sub-component of the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey. The survey began in early 2003 and as of summer 2005 has covered 430 square degrees of sky within a few degrees of the ecliptic. Moving objects beyond the orbit of Uranus are detected to a magnitude limit of mR=23-24 (depending on the image quality). To track as large a sample as possible and avoid introducing followup bias, we have developed a multi-epoch observing strategy that is spread over several years. We present the evolution of the uncertainties in ephemeris position and orbital elements of a small 10-object sample of objects tracked through these epochs as part of a preliminary presurvey starting a year before the main CFEPS project. We describe the CFEPS survey simulator, to be released in 2006, which allows theoretical models of the Kuiper belt to be compared with the survey discoveries. The simulator utilizes the well-documented pointing history of CFEPS, with characterized detection efficiencies as a function of magnitude and rate of motion on the sky. Using the presurvey objects we illustrate the usage of the simulator in modeling the classical Kuiper belt. The primary purpose of this paper is to allow a user to immediately exploit the CFEPS data set and releases as they become available in the coming months.  相似文献   

19.
We report 43 new visible colors of Centaurs and TNOs, obtained at NTT and VLT telescopes under the “ESO large program on physical properties of Centaurs and TNOs.” Merging these new measurements with those obtained during the first part of the program (Boehnhardt et al., 2002, Astron. Astrophys. 395, 297-303) and the “Meudon Multicolor Survey” (Doressoundiram et al., 2002, Astron. J. 124, 2279-2296) we have a unique dataset of 109 objects. We checked for correlations and trends between colors, physical and orbital parameters, carrying out an analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation to account for observational error bars. Centaurs show no evidence for correlation between V−R vs. R−I colors which raises the hypothesis that more than one single coloring process might be acting on their surfaces. Classical objects seem to be composed of two different color populations: objects with i<4.5° display only red colors while those with i>4.5° display the whole range of colors from blue to very red. The possibility that the low inclined population is misguiding global conclusions is analyzed. Classical objects also show a stronger color-perihelion correlation for intrinsically brighter objects, corresponding to critical estimated sizes of different formation/evolutionary histories. Scattered disk objects show color resemblances with the classical objects at i>12°, hence surface reflectivities resemblances, pointing to a common origin. No color-aphelion trend is found for SDOs, as expected from the intense irradiation by galactic cosmic-rays beyond the solar wind termination shock. Plutinos show a color-absolute magnitude trend, in which all the intrinsically faintest objects are blue. We see many red Plutinos in highly inclined and highly eccentric orbits, that should have originated in a primordial inner disk under Gomes (2003, Icarus 161, 404-418) migration scenario. This seems to invalidate the assumption that objects originated in this inner disk are mainly blue. Finally, we also find six candidates for light-curve studies: four objects (1998 WU31, 1999 OE4, 1999 OX3, and 2001 KP77) present significant short term R-magnitude variability, and two objects (1999 XX143 and 2000 GP183) evidence possible color variations with rotation.  相似文献   

20.
近地小行星(10302) 1989 ML和(4660) Nereus作为下一代深空探测的候选目标一直备受关注. 在考虑太阳系主要天体的动力学背景下, 通过计算最大Lyapunov指数(MLE)及MEGNO (Mean Exponential Growth factor of Nearby Orbits)指数讨论它们的稳定性. 同时, 对每个小行星, 在其观测误差范围内按多元正态分布各选取1000个克隆粒子, 通过统计分析显示这两个小行星在10万年内可能的运动范围, 给出半长径-偏心率空间中的出现次数分布图, 并统计小行星与地球或其他大行星之间的密近交汇及碰撞的概率. 此外还对这两个小行星的标称轨道进行长期共振、Kozai共振及平运动共振的动力学分析. 综上得出结论, 1989 ML处在平运动共振主导的区域, 发生密近交汇的概率较小, 从而其轨道相对较稳定; 而Nereus处在地球的密近交汇区域, 轨道极不稳定.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号