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Dagmara Oszkiewicz Karri Muinonen Jenni Virtanen Mikael Granvik 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(12):1897-1904
Abstract— We present a novel Markov‐Chain Monte‐Carlo orbital ranging method (MCMC) for poorly observed single‐apparition asteroids with two or more observations. We examine the Bayesian a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements using methods that map a volume of orbits in the orbital‐element phase space. In particular, we use the MCMC method to sample the phase space in an unbiased way. We study the speed of convergence and also the efficiency of the new method for the initial orbit computation problem. We present the results of the MCMC ranging method applied to three objects from different dynamical groups. We conclude that the method is applicable to initial orbit computation for near‐Earth, main‐belt, and transneptunian objects. 相似文献
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Coastal imagery obtained from a coastal video monitoring station installed at Faro Beach, S. Portugal, was combined with topographic
data from 40 surveys to generate a total of 456 timestack images. The timestack images were processed in an open-access, freely
available graphical user interface (GUI) software, developed to extract and process time series of the cross-shore position
of the swash extrema. The generated dataset of 2% wave run-up exceedence values R
2 was used to form empirical formulas, using as input typical hydrodynamic and coastal morphological parameters, generating
a best-fit case RMS error of 0.39 m. The R
2 prediction capacity was improved when the shore-normal wind speed component and/or the tidal elevation η
tide were included in the parameterizations, further reducing the RMS errors to 0.364 m. Introducing the tidal level appeared
to allow a more accurate representation of the increased wave energy dissipation during low tides, while the negative trend
between R
2 and the shore-normal wind speed component is probably related to the wind effect on wave breaking. The ratio of the infragravity-to-incident
frequency energy contributions to the total swash spectra was in general lower than the ones reported in the literature E
infra/E
inci > 0.8, since low-frequency contributions at the steep, reflective Faro Beach become more significant mainly during storm
conditions. An additional parameterization for the total run-up elevation was derived considering only 222 measurements for
which η
total,2 exceeded 2 m above MSL and the best-fit case resulted in RMS error of 0.41 m. The equation was applied to predict overwash
along Faro Beach for four extreme storm scenarios and the predicted overwash beach sections, corresponded to a percentage
of the total length ranging from 36% to 75%. 相似文献
3.
Dagmara Anna Oszkiewicz Edward Bowell L.H. Wasserman Karri Muinonen Antti Penttilä Tuomo Pieniluoma David E. Trilling Cristina A. Thomas 《Icarus》2012,219(1):283-296
We explore the correlation between an asteroid’s taxonomy and photometric phase curve using the H, G12 photometric phase function, with the shape of the phase function described by the single parameter G12. We explore the usability of G12 in taxonomic classification for individual objects, asteroid families, and dynamical groups. We conclude that the mean values of G12 for the considered taxonomic complexes are statistically different, and also discuss the overall shape of the G12 distribution for each taxonomic complex. Based on the values of G12 for about half a million asteroids, we compute the probabilities of C, S, and X complex membership for each asteroid. For an individual asteroid, these probabilities are rather evenly distributed over all of the complexes, thus preventing meaningful classification. We then present and discuss the G12 distributions for asteroid families, and predict the taxonomic complex preponderance for asteroid families given the distribution of G12 in each family. For certain asteroid families, the probabilistic prediction of taxonomic complex preponderance can clearly be made. In particular, the C complex preponderant families are the easiest to detect, the Dora and Themis families being prime examples of such families. We continue by presenting the G12-based distribution of taxonomic complexes throughout the main asteroid belt in the proper element phase space. The Nysa–Polana family shows two distinct regions in the proper element space with different G12 values dominating in each region. We conclude that the G12-based probabilistic distribution of taxonomic complexes through the main belt agrees with the general view of C complex asteroid proportion increasing towards the outer belt. We conclude that the G12 photometric parameter cannot be used in determining taxonomic complex for individual asteroids, but it can be utilized in the statistical treatment of asteroid families and different regions of the main asteroid belt. 相似文献
4.
The present study describes a new genus and species Unicohormaphis sorini, which belongs to the subfamily Cerataphidinae. The contemporary distribution of aphids belonging to the Hormaphididae family is summarized and analyzed. According to the obtained data, the climate warming in Eocene was conducive to the expansion of the family over the areas of Europe. Subsequent climate changes, resulting from epeirogenic and orogenic movements towards the end of Eocene, led to a considerable cooling and drying of climate in the northern hemisphere. These processes contributed to the shrinking down of areas covered by subtropical forests, which constituted the habitat of Hormaphididae (Cerataphidinae). Retaining their way of life, the Cerataphidinae were forced to limit their distribution, and the representatives of the family in Europe became completely extinct. 相似文献
5.
Mikael Granvik Jenni Virtanen Dagmara Oszkiewicz Karri Muinonen 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(12):1853-1861
Abstract— We are making an open‐source asteroid orbit computation software package called OpenOrb publicly available. OpenOrb is built on a well‐established Bayesian inversion theory, which means that it is to a large part complementary to orbit‐computation packages currently available. In particular, OpenOrb is the first package that contains tools for rigorously estimating the uncertainties resulting from the inverse problem of computing orbital elements using scarce astrometry. In addition to the well‐known least‐squares method, OpenOrb also contains both Monte‐Carlo (MC) and Markov‐Chain MC (MCMC; Oszkiewicz et al. [2009]) versions of the statistical ranging method. Ranging allows the user to obtain sampled, non‐Gaussian orbital‐element probability‐density functions and is therefore optimized for cases where the amount of astrometry is scarce or spans a relatively short time interval. Ranging‐based methods have successfully been applied to a variety of different problems such as rigorous ephemeris prediction, orbital element distribution studies for transneptunian objects, the computation of invariant collision probabilities between near‐Earth objects and the Earth, detection of linkages between astrometric asteroid observations within an apparition as well as between apparitions, and in the rigorous analysis of the impact of orbital arc length and/or astrometric uncertainty on the uncertainty of the resulting orbits. Tools for making ephemeris predictions and for classifying objects based on their orbits are also available in OpenOrb. As an example, we use OpenOrb in the search for candidate retrograde and/or high‐inclination objects similar to 2008 KV42 in the known population of transneptunian objects that have an observational time span shorter than 30 days. 相似文献
6.
E. Bowell D. A. Oszkiewicz L. H. Wasserman K. Muinonen A. Penttilä D. E. Trilling 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(1):95-102
By analyzing brightness variation with ecliptic longitude and using the Lowell Observatory photometric database, we estimate spin‐axis longitudes for more than 350,000 asteroids. Hitherto, spin‐axis longitude estimates have been made for fewer than 200 asteroids. We investigate longitude distributions in different dynamical groups and asteroid families. We show that asteroid spin‐axis longitudes are not isotropically distributed as previously considered. We find that the spin‐axis longitude distribution for Main Belt asteroids is clearly nonrandom, with an excess of longitudes from the interval 30°–110° and a paucity between 120° and 180°. The explanation of the nonisotropic distribution is unknown at this point. Further studies have to be conducted to determine if the shape of the distribution can be explained by observational bias, selection effects, a real physical process, or other mechanism. 相似文献
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