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A multi-tiered earthquake hazard model for Australia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Earthquakes result from tectonic processes, and their distribution is strongly influenced by large-scale geology and the tectonic stress field. However, earthquake hazard estimates, particularly ground motion recurrence, have traditionally been computed using source models based primarily on instrumental and historical seismicity. In areas of low to moderate seismicity such as Australia, large earthquakes commonly occur in areas which have experienced little or no recent activity, making it difficult to develop source models based solely on seismicity.
The seismotectonic model developed for Australia that is presented here (AUS5) is based on geology, geophysics, tectonics and seismicity. The model was developed using a number of tiers of information, so that new information can easily be incorporated. The information used includes, but is not limited to, tectonic provinces, basins and ranges, gravity, magnetic, topography, and seismicity, all on a regional scale. On a local scale, for a site-specific earthquake hazard study, active faulting can be incorporated to provide fault source zones.
An earthquake hazard map showing peak ground acceleration with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for southeastern Australia using the geologically defined seismotectonic model AUS5 is presented as an indication of how the model performs. 相似文献
3.
Seismic hazard assessment of slow active fault zones is challenging as usually only a few decades of sparse instrumental seismic monitoring is available to characterize seismic activity. Tectonic features linked to the observed seismicity can be mapped by seismic imaging techniques and/or geomorphological and structural evidences. In this study, we investigate a seismic lineament located in the Swiss Alpine foreland, which was discussed in previous work as being related to crustal structures carrying in size the potential of a magnitude M 6 earthquake. New, low-magnitude (?2.0 ≤ ML ≤ 2.5) earthquake data are used to image the spatial and temporal distribution of seismogenic features in the target area. Quantitative and qualitative analyses are applied to the waveform dataset to better constrain earthquakes distribution and source processes. Potential tectonic features responsible for the observed seismicity are modelled based on new reinterpretations of oil industry seismic profiles and recent field data in the study area. The earthquake and tectonic datasets are then integrated in a 3D model. Spatially, the seismicity correlates over 10–15 km with a N–S oriented sub-vertical fault zone imaged in seismic profiles in the Mesozoic cover units above a major decollement on top of the mechanically more rigid basement and seen in outcrops of Tertiary series east of the city of Fribourg. Observed earthquakes cluster at shallow depth (<4 km) in the sedimentary cover. Given the spatial extend of the observed seismicity, we infer the potential of a moderate size earthquake to be generated on the lineament. However, since the existence of along strike structures in the basement cannot be excluded, a maximum M 6 earthquake cannot be ruled out. Thus, the Fribourg Lineament constitutes a non-negligible source of seismic hazard in the Swiss Alpine foreland. 相似文献
4.
This paper examines the variability of seismic activity observed in the case of different geological zones of peninsular India (10°N–26°N; 68°E–90°E) based on earthquake catalog between the period 1842 and 2002 and estimates earthquake hazard for the region. With compilation of earthquake catalog in terms of moment magnitude and establishing broad completeness criteria, we derive the seismicity parameters for each geologic zone of peninsular India using maximum likelihood procedure. The estimated parameters provide the basis for understanding the historical seismicity associated with different geological zones of peninsular India and also provide important inputs for future seismic hazard estimation studies in the region. Based on present investigation, it is clear that earthquake recurrence activity in various geologic zones of peninsular India is distinct and varies considerably between its cratonic and rifting zones. The study identifies the likely hazards due to the possibility of moderate to large earthquakes in peninsular India and also presents the influence of spatial rate variation in the seismic activity of this region. This paper presents the influence of source zone characterization and recurrence rate variation pattern on the maximum earthquake magnitude estimation. The results presented in the paper provide a useful basis for probabilistic seismic hazard studies and microzonation studies in peninsular India. 相似文献
5.
The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years. 相似文献
6.
Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the sultanate of Oman 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
I. El-Hussain A. Deif K. Al-Jabri N. Toksoz S. El-Hady S. Al-Hashmi K. Al-Toubi Y. Al-Shijbi M. Al-Saifi S. Kuleli 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(1):173-210
This study presents the results of the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the framework of logic tree for Oman. The earthquake catalogue was homogenized, declustered, and used to define seismotectonic source model that characterizes the seismicity of Oman. Two seismic source models were used in the current study; the first consists of 26 seismic source zones, while the second is expressing the alternative view that seismicity is uniform along the entire Makran and Zagros zones. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones were determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the zones of Makran, which were modelled using the characteristic distribution. Maximum earthquakes were determined and the horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships developed based upon seismic data obtained from active tectonic environments similar to those surrounding Oman. The alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and ground-motion prediction relationships were weighted and used to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Hazard maps at rock sites were produced for 5?% damped spectral acceleration (SA) values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0?s spectral periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for return periods of 475 and 2,475?years. The highest hazard is found in Khasab City with maximum SA at 0.2?s spectral period reaching 243 and 397?cm/s2 for return periods 475 and 2,475 years, respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the choice of seismic source model and the ground-motion prediction equation influences the results most. 相似文献
7.
张文佑院士是我国最杰出的构造地质学家和大地构造学家,他提出和倡导的地质构造力学分析和历史分析相结合及断块构造理论符合当代构造地质和构造运动研究的新方向。断块构造是地球构造运动最基本的型式,板块构造是全球范围内的岩石圈构造,是最高一级的岩石圈断块构造。活动断块是现今构造运动最基本的型式,它既控制主要活动构造带和地震活动带的分布,也控制不同地区地震活动特征的差异。断块边界构造带是在构造变形和运动场中的不连续变形带,应力在此释放,应变在此局部化,位移在此发生,其差异活动最为强烈,因此,断块边界构造带是强震发生带,其活动性质会控制震源断层的特性。大地震孕育和发生在边界活动构造带的某些特殊部位,对其成核的构造和物理过程尚需深入进行研究。要特别注意断块整体性活动对地震活动的控制作用,断块的这种整体性活动与一定时期内地震活动主体地区分布有密切关系,所以,在活动构造研究中,要把断块的整体性活动与活动构造带的个体活动结合起来。 相似文献
8.
In estimating the likelihood of an earthquake hazard for a seismically active region, information on the geometry of the potential
source is important in quantifying the seismic hazard. The damage from an earthquake varies spatially and is governed by the
fault geometry and lithology. As earthquake damage is amplified by guided seismic waves along fault zones, it is important
to delineate the disposition of the fault zones by precisely determined hypocentral parameters. We used the double difference
(DD) algorithm to relocate earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone (KWSZ) region, with the P- and S-wave catalog data
from relative arrival time pairs constituting the input. A significant improvement in the hypocentral estimates was achieved,
with the epicentral errors <30 m and focal depth errors <75 m i.e. errors have been significantly reduced by an order of magnitude
from the parameters determined by HYPO71. The earthquake activity defines three different fault segments. The seismogenic volume is shallower in the south by 3 km,
with seismicity in the north extending to a depth of 11 km while in the south the deepest seismicity observed is at a depth
of 8 km. By resolving the structure of seismicity in greater detail, we address the salient issues related to the seismotectonics
of this region. 相似文献
9.
Quantification of seismic activity is one of the most challenging problems faced by earthquake engineers in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Currently, this problem has been attempted using empirical approaches which are based on the regional earthquake recurrence relations from the available earthquake catalogue. However, at a specified site of engineering interest, these empirical models are associated with large number of uncertainties due to lack of sufficient data. Due to these uncertainties, engineers need to develop mechanistic models to quantify seismic activity. A wide range of techniques for modeling continental plates provides useful insights on the mechanics of plates and their seismic activity. Among the different continental plates, the Indian plate experiences diffused seismicity. In India, although Himalaya is regarded as a plate boundary and active region, the seismicity database indicates that there are other regions in the Indian shield reporting sporadic seismic activity. It is expected that mechanistic models of Indian plate, based on finite element method, simulate stress fields that quantify the seismic potential of active regions in India. This article explores the development of a finite element model for Indian plate by observing the simulated stress field for various boundary conditions, geological and rheological conditions. The study observes that the magnitude and direction of stresses in the plate is sensitive to these conditions. The numerical analysis of the models shows that the simulated stress field represents the active seismic zones in India. 相似文献
10.
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Horn of Africa is presented. Our seismicity database consists of a revised and up-to-date regional catalogue compiled from different agencies, checked for completeness with respect to time and homogenized with respect to magnitude (Ms). The seismic source zones are based on our present day knowledge of the regional seismotectonics. Among the results we present regional hazard maps for 0.01 annual probability for intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and hazard curves and response spectra for six economical significant sites within the region. The model uncertainties with respect to seismicity are analysed in a novel approach and form part of a sensitivity analysis that quantifies our PSHA modelling uncertainties.
For 0.01 annual probability we find randomly oriented horizontal PGA that exceed just 0.2 g and MM-scale intensity VIII in the Afar depression and southern Sudan. Uncertainties amount to 20% g PGA in some cases, mainly due to attenuation uncertainties. Intensity uncertainties seldom exceed 0.5 intensity units. Relatively large seismic hazard is found for Djibouti (VIII for 0.01 annual probability), slightly lower for the port of Massawa (between VII and VIII for 0.01 annual probability) and low for the port of Assab (between VI and VII for 0.01 annual probability). 相似文献
11.
A simplified tectonic scheme for hazard purposes was recently adopted for northeastern Italy, introducing large generalized seismogenic areas containing systems of complex geometry faults. This scheme considers only major faults with documented seismic activity. In the present analysis, a different tectonic scheme, with linear elements as seismogenic sources, is presented. The assessment of the regional seismic hazard is done with the fault rupture model, its most important advantage being the recognition that the length of fault rupture during an earthquake is an important consideration in probabilistic calculations of seismic hazard. Moreover, some structures with no associated seismicity but with notable neotectonic activity are considered, and their contribution to the results investigated. Important uncertainties such as those in the maximum possible magnitude of future earthquakes, in the location of the fault, in the focal depth, and in the attenuation law are accounted for in the calculations and their influence studied. The results identify a seismic belt running from Lake Garda to Friuli and along the Yugoslav coast and are very similar to those already known for Friuli, with the largest values corresponding to the zone around Gemona. Some slight differences in the shape of the areas of equal acceleration are probably due to the delineation of the seismic sources of the proposed model. For a cautious elaboration, some neotectonic lines without present seismicity were added into the fault model. Their contribution is negligible in the areas of highest acceleration, but increases remarkably in the areas where acceleration is not expected to exceed the medium values. 相似文献
12.
The Makassar Strait region has had the highest frequency of historical tsunamievents for Indonesia. The strait has a seismic activity due to the convergenceof four tectonic plates that produces a complex mixture of structures. The maintsunamigenic features in the Makassar Strait are the Palu-Koro and Pasternostertransform fault zones, which form the boundaries of the Makassar trough.Analysis of the seismicity, tectonics and historic tsunami events indicatesthat the two fault zones have different tsunami generating characteristics.The Palu-Koro fault zone involves shallow thrust earthquakes that generatetsunami that have magnitudes that are consistent with the earthquakemagnitudes. The Pasternoster fault zone involves shallower strike-slipearthquakes that produce tsunami magnitudes larger than would normallybe expected for the earthquake magnitude. The most likely cause for theincreased tsunami energy is considered to be submarine landslidesassociated with the earthquakes. Earthquakes from both fault zonesappear to cause subsidence of the west coast of Sulawesi Island.The available data were used to construct a tsunami hazard map whichidentifies the highest risk along the west coast of Sulawesi Island.The opposite side of the Makassar Strait has a lower risk because it isfurther from the historic tsunami source regions along the Sulawesicoast, and because the continental shelf dissipates tsunami wave energy.The greatest tsunami risk for the Makassar Strait is attributed tolocally generated tsunami due to the very short travel times. 相似文献
13.
可靠地划分地震区可奠定地震预测与地震危险性评价的地质基础,具有十分重要的意义。笔者等通过研究分析指出板内孕震构造块体侧向边界可由区域性大断层或由区域性大断层与板块边界界定,底边界为康拉德面或低速高导层;板间孕震构造块体为俯冲板块,可由区域性大断层和(或)板块边界约束;在同一个孕震构造块体和同一轮地震周期的地震具有内在联系。因此,地震区可定义为代表相应孕震构造块体地震活动的区域,其可表征该块体内源自锁固段破裂的地震活动。基于笔者等提出的孕震构造块体和相应地震区边界确定原则,把全球两大地震带(环太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带)划分为62个地震区;每个地震区的分区方案均通过了多锁固段脆性破裂理论的检验,这说明方案可靠。进而,笔者等归纳总结了地震区划分方法。 相似文献
14.
The first step in a seismicity analysis usually consists of defining the seismogenic units, seismic zones or individual faults. The worldwide delimitation of these zones involves an enormous effort and is often rather subjective. Also, a complete recording of faults will not be available for a long time yet. The seismicity model presented in this paper therefore is not based on individually defined seismic zones but rather on the assumption that each point in a global 1/2° grid of coordinates represents a potential earthquake source. The corresponding seismogenic parameters are allocated to each of these points. The earthquake occurrence frequency, one of the most important parameters, is determined purely statistically by appropriately spreading out the positions of past occurrences. All the other significant seismicity characteristics, such as magnitude-frequency relations, maximum possible magnitude and attenuation laws including the dependence on focal depth are determined in a global 1/2° grid of co-ordinates. This method of interpreting seismicity data allows us to establish a transparent, sufficiently precise representation of seismic hazard which is ideally suited for computer-aided risk analyses. 相似文献
15.
A systematization of active faults has been developed based on the progress of scientists from the leading countries in the
world in the study of seismotectonics and seismic hazard problems. It is underlain by the concept of the fault-block structure
of the geological-geophysical environment governed by the interaction of differently oriented active faults, which are divided
into two groups—seismogenic and nonseismogenic faults. In seismogenic fault zones, the tectonic stress accumulated is relieved
by means of strong earthquakes. Nonseismogenic fault zones are characterized by creep displacement or short-term, oscillatory,
and reciprocal movements, which are referred to local superintense deformations of the Earth’s crust (according to the terminology
used by Yu.O. Kuz’min). For a situation when a strong earthquake happens, a subgroup of seismodistributing faults has been
identified that surround the seismic source and affect the distribution of the seismic waves and, as a consequence, the pattern
of the propagation of the coseismic deformations in the fault-block environment. Seismodistributing faults are divided into
transit and sealing faults. Along transit faults, secondary coseismic effects (landfalls, landslides, ground fractures, liquefaction,
etc) are intensified during earthquakes. In the case of sealing faults, enhancement of the coseismic effects can be observed
on the disjunctive limb nearest to the epicenter, whereas, on the opposite limb, the intensity of such effects appreciably
decreases. Seismogenic faults or their systems are associated with zones of earthquake source origination (ESO), which include
concentrated seismicity regions. In such zones, each earthquake source is related to the evolution of a fault system. ESO
zones also contain individual seismogenic sources being focuses of strong earthquakes with M of ≥5.5 in the form of ruptures, which can be graphically represented in 2D or 3D as a surface projection of the source.
Depending on the type of data based on which they are identified, individual seismogenic sources are divided into geological-geophysical
and macroseismic sources. The systematization presented is the theoretical basis for and the concept of the relational database
that is being developed by the authors as an information system for the generation of seismotectonic GIS projects required
for the subsequent analysis of the seismic hazard and the assessment of the probability of the origination of macroseismic
earthquake effects in a predetermined location. 相似文献
16.
Seismicity of Gujarat 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Paper describes tectonics, earthquake monitoring, past and present seismicity, catalogue of earthquakes and estimated return periods of large earthquakes in Gujarat state, western India. The Gujarat region has three failed Mesozoic rifts of Kachchh, Cambay, and Narmada, with several active faults. Kachchh district of Gujarat is the only region outside Himalaya-Andaman belt that has high seismic hazard of magnitude 8 corresponding to zone V in the seismic zoning map of India. The other parts of Gujarat have seismic hazard of magnitude 6 or less. Kachchh region is considered seismically one of the most active intraplate regions of the World. It is known to have low seismicity but high hazard in view of occurrence of fewer smaller earthquakes of M????6 in a region having three devastating earthquakes that occurred during 1819 (M w7.8), 1956 (M w6.0) and 2001 (M w7.7). The second in order of seismic status is Narmada rift zone that experienced a severely damaging 1970 Bharuch earthquake of M5.4 at its western end and M????6 earthquakes further east in 1927 (Son earthquake), 1938 (Satpura earthquake) and 1997 (Jabalpur earthquake). The Saurashtra Peninsula south of Kachchh has experienced seismicity of magnitude less than 6. 相似文献
17.
Past studies of seismic hazard in the U.K. that have used modern probabilistic methods of hazard assessment have been site-specific studies, mostly in connection with nuclear installations. There has been a need for general-purpose maps of seismic hazard to show relative variation of exposure within the U.K. and to give some guidance on absolute values. Such maps have now been produced, incorporating, for the first time, the wealth of new information on historical earthquakes in Britain that has been gathered over the last 15 years. The hazard calculations were undertaken using a new computer code based on the USGS program SEISRISK III, but incorporating a logic tree approach to model variation in the input parameters (e.g. focal depth) or uncertainty in the formulation of the model (e.g. attenuation parameters). An innovative approach was taken to the formulation of seismic source zones, in which two overlapping models were employed. The first of these uses relatively broad source zones based loosely on an interpretation of seismicity and tectonics, while the second uses numerous small zones that reflect the locations of past significant earthquakes. This double approach (using the logic tree methodology) has the merit of both considering the general trend of earthquake activity as well as focusing in on known danger spots. The results show that the areas of highest hazard are western Scotland, north-western England and Wales, where the intensity with 90% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years is 6 EMS. 相似文献
18.
A general overview of some of the problems involved in earthquake catalogue handling is given as part of the works carried out into the ESC/SC8-TERESA project related with the seismic hazard assessment in two selected test areas: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). Furthermore, the necessary input data to be used in the calculation of seismic hazard has been obtained, including earthquake source zones and their seismic hazard parameters.The importance is pointed out of detailed analysis of seismic catalogues, mainly in relation to the use of aftershock information, the historical records of the region, and the possible temporal and spatial variation of seismicity, which could have an important influence on short-term hazard assessment. 相似文献
19.
I. El-Hussain Y. Al-Shijbi A. Deif A. M. E. Mohamed M. Ezzelarab 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(15):435
A seismic source model is developed for the entire Arabian Plate, which has been affected by a number of earthquakes in the past and in recent times. Delineation and characterization of the sources responsible for these seismic activities are crucial inputs for any seismic hazard study. Available earthquake data and installation of local seismic networks in most of the Arabian Plate countries made it feasible to delineate the seismic sources that have a hazardous potential on the region. Boundaries of the seismic zones are essentially identified based upon the seismicity, available data on active faults and their potential to generate effective earthquakes, prevailing focal mechanism, available geophysical maps, and the volcanic activity in the Arabian Shield. Variations in the characteristics given by the above datasets provide the bases for delineating individual seismic zones. The present model consists of 57 seismic zones extending along the Makran Subduction Zone, Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt, Eastern Anatolian Fault, Aqaba-Dead Sea Fault, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Owen Fracture Zone, Arabian Intraplate, and a background seismic zone, which models the floating seismicity that is unrelated to any of the distinctly identified seismic zones. The features of the newly developed model make the seismic hazard results likely be more realistic. 相似文献
20.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mark D. Petersen James Dewey Stephan Hartzell Charles Mueller Stephan Harmsen ArthurD. Frankel Ken Rukstales 《Tectonophysics》2004,390(1-4):141-158
The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults. 相似文献