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1.
Simulations of late 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount from 20 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) dataset are synthesized and assessed. Under recent climatic conditions, GCMs realistically simulate the spatial distribution of Arctic clouds, the magnitude of cloudiness during the warmest seasons (summer–autumn), and the prevalence of low clouds as the predominant type. The greatest intermodel spread and most pronounced model error of excessive cloudiness coincides with the coldest seasons (winter–spring) and locations (perennial ice pack, Greenland, and the Canadian Archipelago). Under greenhouse forcing (SRES A1B emissions scenario) the Arctic is expected to become cloudier, especially during autumn and over sea ice, in tandem with cloud decreases in middle latitudes. Projected cloud changes for the late 21st century depend strongly on the simulated modern (late 20th century) annual cycle of Arctic cloud amount: GCMs that correctly simulate more clouds during summer than winter at present also tend to simulate more clouds in the future. The simulated Arctic cloud changes display a tripole structure aloft, with largest increases concentrated at low levels (below 700 hPa) and high levels (above 400 hPa) but little change in the middle troposphere. The changes in cloud radiative forcing suggest that the cloud changes are a positive feedback annually but negative during summer. Of potential explanations for the simulated Arctic cloud response, local evaporation is the leading candidate based on its high correlation with the cloud changes. The polar cloud changes are also significantly correlated with model resolution: GCMs with higher spatial resolution tend to produce larger future cloud increases. 相似文献
2.
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过合成分析和相关分析,研究了2010年、2013年及2016年夏季江淮地区高温事件发生时,大气环流异常的主要特征及其与北极冷异常的可能联系。结果表明:这3年江淮地区夏季高温事件发生频次明显偏高,期间江淮地区500 hPa位势高度为正异常,对流层中低层平均温度为暖异常,整个对流层和平流层纬向风减弱;而北极500 hPa高度为负异常,对流层中低层平均温度异常偏冷,纬向风明显加强。因此,江淮地区高温事件与对流层纬向风存在密切联系,在东亚中低纬度地区呈负相关,而在北极呈正相关。东亚中低纬度地区对流层西风减弱抑制对流活动,地面吸收太阳短波辐射增加,进而有利于高温事件发生。 相似文献
3.
南半球中高纬度区域不同类型云的辐射特性 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用CloudSat的2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR云分类产品和2B-FLXHR-LIDAR辐射产品4 a（2007-2010年）的数据,定量分析了单层云（高云、中云、低云）和3种双层云（如:高云与中云共存、高云与低云共存以及中云与低云共存）在南半球中高纬度（40°-65°S）的云量、云辐射强迫和云辐射加热率。其中云辐射加热率定义为有云时的大气加热率廓线与晴空大气加热率廓线的差值。结果表明:研究区域盛行单层低云和单层中云,其云量分别为44.1%和10.3%。并且,中云重叠低云在双层云中云量也是最大（8.7%）。不同类型云的云量也显著影响着其云辐射强迫。单层低云在大气层顶、地表以及大气中的净云辐射强迫分别是-64.8、-56.5和-8.4 W/m2,其绝对值大于其他类型云。虽然单层的中云在大气层顶和地表的净辐射强迫也为负值,但其在大气中的净云辐射强迫为正值（2.3 W/m2）。最后,讨论了不同类型云对大气中辐射能量垂直分布的影响。所有类型云的短波（或长波）云辐射加热率都随高度升高表现为由负值转为正值（或由正值转为负值）。对于大部分云,其净云辐射加热率主要由长波云辐射加热率决定。这些研究结果旨在为模式中云重叠参数化方案在区域的适用性评估及改进提供观测依据。 相似文献
4.
The role of cloud cover in determining the sensitivity of climate has been a source of great uncertainty. This article reviews the distributions of cloud cover change from several climate sensitivity experiments conducted at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of NOAA (GFDL) and other institutions. Two of the sensitivity experiments conducted at GFDL used a general circulation model with a limited computational domain and idealized geography, whereas three other experiments were conducted by the use of a global model with realistic geography. A thermal forcing imposed was either a change of solar constant or that of the CO2-concentration in the atmosphere. It was found that in all five cases, clouds were decreased in the moist, convectively active regions such as the tropical and middle latitude rainbelts, whereas they increased in the stable region near the model surface from middle to higher latitudes. In addition, cloud also increased in the lower model stratosphere and generally decreased in the middle and upper troposphere for practically all latitudes.A comparison of the cloud changes obtained from investigations carried out at other institutions reveals certain qualitative (but not necessarily quantitative) similarities to the GFDL results. These similarities include a general reduction of tropospheric cloud cover especially in the vicinity of the rainbelts, a general increase of lower stratospheric cloud cover for almost all latitudes and an increase of low stratiform cloud in high latitudes. 相似文献
5.
云液态水路径是气候和天气系统分析的重要参数,可以从卫星观测资料反演获得.目前,基于卫星微波探测仪器观测资料的云水算法可由23.8和31.4 GHz两个通道产生.本研究使用先进技术微波探测仪(ATMS)观测数据,对物理和经验两种算法反演出的云液态水路径进行验证评估.结果表明,经验算法和物理算法都可以描述云液态水在全球洋面... 相似文献
6.
To investigate the processes of development and maintenance of low-level clouds during major synoptic events, the cloudy boundary
layer under stormy conditions during the summertime Arctic has been studied using observations from the Surface Heat Budget
of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment and large-eddy simulations (LES). On 29 July 1998, a stable Arctic cloudy boundary-layer
event was observed after the passage of a synoptic low pressure system. The local dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the
boundary layer was determined from aircraft measurements including the analysis of turbulence, cloud microphysics and radiative
properties. After the upper cloud layer advected over the existing cloud layer, the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget
indicated that the cloud layer below 200 m was maintained predominantly by shear production. Observations of longwave radiation
showed that cloud-top cooling at the lower cloud top has been suppressed by radiative effects of the upper cloud layer. Our
LES results demonstrate the importance of the combination of shear mixing near the surface and radiative cooling at the cloud
top in the storm-driven cloudy boundary layer. Once the low-level cloud reaches a certain height, depending on the amount
of cloud-top cooling, the two sources of TKE production begin to separate in space under continuous stormy conditions, suggesting
one possible mechanism for the cloud layering. The sensitivity tests suggest that the storm-driven cloudy boundary layer is
possibly switched to the shear-driven system due to the advection of upper clouds or to the buoyantly driven system due to
the lack of wind shear. A comparison is made of this storm-driven boundary layer with the buoyantly driven boundary layer
previously described in the literature. 相似文献
7.
In recent years, a substantial reduction of the sea ice in the Arctic has been observed. At the same time, the near-surface
air in this region is warming at a rate almost twice as large as the global average—this phenomenon is known as the Arctic
amplification. The role of the ice-albedo feedback for the Arctic amplification is still a matter of debate. Here the effect
of the surface-albedo feedback (SAF) was studied using a coupled climate model CCSM3 from the National Center for Atmospheric
Research. Experiments, where the SAF was suppressed by locking the surface albedo in the entire coupled model system, were
conducted. The results reveal polar temperature amplification when this model, with suppressed albedo, is forced by a doubling
of the atmospheric CO2 content. Comparisons with variable albedo experiments show that SAF amplifies the surface-temperature response in the Arctic
area by about 33%, whereas the corresponding value for the global-mean surface temperature is about 15%. Even though SAF is
an important process underlying excessive warming at high latitudes, the Arctic amplification is only 15% larger in the variable
than in the locked-albedo experiments. It is found that an increase of water vapour and total cloud cover lead to a greenhouse
effect, which is larger in the Arctic than at lower latitudes. This is expected to explain a part of the Arctic surface–air-temperature
amplification. 相似文献
8.
Richard T. Wetherald 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):569-582
The effects that low clouds in sub-tropical to tropical latitudes have in determining a given model’s climate sensitivity is investigated by analyzing the cloud data produced by 16 “slab” or mixed-layer models submitted to the PCMDI and CFMIP archives and their respective response to a doubling of CO2. It is found that, within the context of the 16 models analyzed, changes of these low clouds appear to play a major role in determining model sensitivity but with changes of middle cloud also contributing especially from middle to higher latitudes. It is noted that the models with the smallest overall cloud change produce the smallest climate sensitivities and vice versa although the overall signs of the respective cloud feedbacks are positive. It is also found that the amounts of low cloud as simulated by the respective control runs have very little correlation with their respective climate sensitivities. In general, the overall latitude-height patterns of cloud change as derived from these more recent experiments agree quite well with those obtained from much earlier studies which include increases of the highest cloud, decreases of cloud lower down in the middle and lower tropospheric and small increases of low clouds. Finally, other mitigating factors are mentioned which could also affect the spread of the resulting climate sensitivities. 相似文献
9.
A. P. Nagurnyi 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2009,34(9):613-617
The area integral of the sea ice thickness in the Arctic Basin is estimated from the measurements of sea ice surface fluctuations
at drift-ice stations. The 1970–1990 linear trend is indicative of an approximately 10-cm reduction in the average sea ice
thickness over the entire Arctic Basin, which makes 3% of the average ice thickness (about 3 m). Seasonal changes made 40
cm. The amplitude of variations of the average ice thickness in that period is 20 cm with a period of changes of approximately
6–8 years. The observations were interrupted during 1991–2003 and then resumed in 2004. During 1990–2005, the old ice thickness
over the entire Arctic Basin decreased, on average, by 110 cm. 相似文献
10.
We have studied the role of low-level clouds in modifying the thermodynamic and turbulence properties of the Arctic boundary layer during autumn. This was achieved through detailed analyses of boundary-layer properties in two regions, one with low-level cloud cover and the other free of clouds, using measurements from a research aircraft during the Beaufort and Arctic Storms Experiment (BASE). Both regions were measured on the same day under similar synoptic forcing. The cloudy region was characterized by strong horizontal inhomogeneity in low-level temperature and moisture that varied with the cloud-top height. The clear region was relatively homogeneous in temperature and specific humidity with a strong temperature inversion extending between heights of 100 m and 3 km. From measurements at the lowest levels, we also identified a shallow mixed layer below the deep stable layer in the clear region.Our spectral analyses revealed significant modifications of boundary-layer properties due to the presence of low-level clouds. In the cloudy region, turbulent perturbations dominated the boundary-layer flow and made large contributions to the scalar variances. In the clear boundary-layer, wave motion contributed significantly to the observed variances, while turbulent flow was relatively weak. The clear region was saturated, although no detectable clouds were measured. 相似文献
11.
The Arctic Amplification Debate 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
Rises in surface air temperature (SAT) in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to be amplified in northern high latitudes, with warming most pronounced over the Arctic Ocean owing to the loss of sea ice. Observations document recent warming, but an enhanced Arctic Ocean signal is not readily evident. This disparity, combined with varying model projections of SAT change, and large variability in observed SAT over the 20th century, may lead one to question the concept of Arctic amplification. Disparity is greatly reduced, however, if one compares observed trajectories to near-future simulations (2010–2029), rather than to the doubled-CO2 or late 21st century conditions that are typically cited. These near-future simulations document a preconditioning phase of Arctic amplification, characterized by the initial retreat and thinning of sea ice, with imprints of low-frequency variability. Observations show these same basic features, but with SATs over the Arctic Ocean still largely constrained by the insulating effects of the ice cover and thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Given the general consistency with model projections, we are likely near the threshold when absorption of solar radiation during summer limits ice growth the following autumn and winter, initiating a feedback leading to a substantial increase in Arctic Ocean SATs. 相似文献
12.
Submarine and satellite observations show that the Arctic Ocean ice cover has undergone a large thickness reduction and a decrease in the areal extent during the last decades. Here the response of the Arctic Ocean ice cover to changes in the poleward atmospheric energy transport, F wall, is investigated using coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean column models. Two models with highly different complexity are used in order to illustrate the importance of different internal processes and the results highlight the dramatic effects of the negative ice thickness—ice volume export feedback and the positive surface albedo feedback. The steady state ice thickness as a function of F wall is determined for various model setups and defines what we call ice thickness response curves. When a variable surface albedo and snow precipitation is included, a complex response curve appears with two distinct regimes: a perennial ice cover regime with a fairly linear response and a less responsive seasonal ice cover regime. The two regimes are separated by a steep transition associated with surface albedo feedback. The associated hysteresis is however small, indicating that the Arctic climate system does not have an irreversible tipping point behaviour related to the surface albedo feedback. The results are discussed in the context of the recent reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover. A new mechanism related to regional and temporal variations of the ice divergence within the Arctic Ocean is presented as an explanation for the observed regional variation of the ice thickness reduction. Our results further suggest that the recent reduction in areal ice extent and loss of multiyear ice is related to the albedo dependent transition between seasonal and perennial ice i.e. large areas of the Arctic Ocean that has previously been dominated by multiyear ice might have been pushed below a critical mean ice thickness, corresponding to the above mentioned transition, and into a state dominated by seasonal ice. 相似文献
13.
The cloud variations under subtropical high(STH) conditions during summers over a ten-year period are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.The results reveal that clouds mainly experience an isolated evolution in the STHs,which is designated in this study by the 1540 gpm geopotential lines at 850 hPa.In the STH domain throughout the Northern Hemisphere,the average amount of total clouds exceeds 30%.Low clouds dominate in the STH domain,contributing over 60%of total cloud amount within the Pacific subtropical high and over 40%within the Atlantic subtropical high.The prevalence of low clouds in above regions is determined by the circulation pattern around 150°-180°E and 850 hPa,which suppresses both the upward development of the cloud tops and the water vapor divergences near the surface.Furthermore,clouds present great geographical incoherence within the STH domain.In the eastern STHs,the amount of middle and low clouds increases to peak in the early morning and decreases to a trough in the afternoon,while the amount of high clouds remains stable throughout the day.Conversely,in the western STHs,the diurnal amplitude of low and middle clouds is less than three,while high clouds dramatically reach the maximum in the afternoon and drop to the minimum in the evening.Among the nine cloud categories,stratocumulus clouds with greater optical thickness account for the most under STH conditions,no matter their occurrence or amount,causing more shortwave cloud radiative forcing to cool the local atmosphere and surface as a consequence. 相似文献
14.
In this study,the interdecadal changes in the zonal symmetry of both Arctic Oscillation(AO) and Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) were analyzed.To describe the zonal asymmetry,a local index of AO and AAO was defined using the normalized sea level pressure(SLP) differences between 40° and 65°(latitudes) in both hemispheres.The zonal covariability of local AO and AAO can well represent the zonal symmetry of AO and AAO.Results show that the zonal asymmetry of both AO and AAO significantly changed in the late 1970s.AO was less asymmetric in the zonal direction in the boreal winter season during the latter period,while in the boreal summer it became more asymmetric after 1979.The zonal symmetry of AAO in both austral summer and winter has also significantly decreased since the late 1970s.These changes may imply interdecadal transition in the atmospheric circulation at middle and high latitudes,which is of vital importance to understanding climate variability and predictability across the globe,including the African-Asian-Australian monsoon regions. 相似文献
15.
P. Gloersen H. J. Zwally A. T. C. Chang D. K. Hall W. J. Campbell R. O. Ramseier 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1978,13(1-4):339-359
The time variation of the sea-ice concentration and multiyear ice fraction within the pack ice in the Arctic Basin is examined, using microwave images of sea ice recently acquired by the Nimbus-5 spacecraft and the NASA CV-990 airborne laboratory. The images used for these studies were constructed from data acquired from the Electrically Scanned Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) which records radiation from earth and its atmosphere at a wavelength of 1.55 cm. Data are analyzed for four seasons during 1973–1975 to illustrate some basic differences in the properties of the sea ice during those times. Spacecraft data are compared with corresponding NASA CV-990 airborne laboratory data obtained over wide areas in the Arctic Basin during the Main Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment (1975) to illustrate the applicability of passive-microwave remote sensing for monitoring the time dependence of sea-ice concentration (divergence). These observations indicate significant variations in the sea-ice concentration in the spring, late fall and early winter. In addition, deep in the interior of the Arctic polar sea-ice pack, heretofore unobserved large areas, several hundred kilometers in extent, of sea-ice concentrations as low as 50% are indicated. 相似文献
16.
Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
We investigate the behavior of clouds during rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in the Arctic, as simulated by multiple ensemble projections of the 21st century in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Trends in cloud properties and sea ice coverage during RILEs are compared with their secular trends between 2000 and 2049 during summer, autumn, and winter. The results suggest that clouds promote abrupt Arctic climate change during RILEs through increased (decreased) cloudiness in autumn (summer) relative to the changes over the first half of the 21st century. The trends in cloud characteristics (cloud amount, water content, and radiative forcing) during RILEs are most strongly and consistently an amplifying effect during autumn, the season in which RILEs account for the majority of the secular trends. The total cloud trends in every season are primarily due to low clouds, which show a more robust response than middle and high clouds across RILEs. Lead-lag correlations of monthly sea ice concentration and cloud cover during autumn reveal that the relationship between less ice and more clouds is enhanced during RILEs, but there is no evidence that either variable is leading the other. Given that Arctic cloud projections in CCSM3 are similar to those from other state-of-the-art GCMs and that observations show increased autumn cloudiness associated with the extreme 2007 and 2008 sea ice minima, this study suggests that the rapidly declining Arctic sea ice will be accentuated by changes in polar clouds. 相似文献
17.
The heat budget of the upper Arctic Ocean is examined in an ensemble of coupled climate models under idealised increasing CO2 scenarios. All of the experiments show a strong amplification of surface air temperatures but a smaller increase in sea surface temperature than the rest of the world as heat is lost to the atmosphere as the sea-ice cover is reduced. We carry out a heat budget analysis of the Arctic Ocean in an ensemble of model runs to understand the changes that occur as the Arctic becomes ice free in summer. We find that as sea-ice retreats heat is lost from the ocean surface to the atmosphere contributing to the amplification of Arctic surface temperatures. Furthermore, heat is mixed upwards into the mixed layer as a result of increased upper ocean mixing and there is increased advection of heat into the Arctic as the ice edge retreats. Heat lost from the upper Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere is therefore replenished by mixing of warmer water from below and by increased advection of warm water from lower latitudes. The ocean is therefore able to contribute more to Arctic amplification. 相似文献
18.
This paper addresses the problem of modelling the summertime Arctic cloudy boundary layer. Specifically we consider the problem of multi-layered clouds in the boundary layer that includes the decoupling of the turbulence between upper and lower clouds. A high-resolution one-dimensional model with second-order turbulence closure and spectral radiative transfer is used to simulate a case study that was obtained during the 1980 Arctic Stratus Experiment. The effects of radiation, large-scale vertical motion and drizzle are investigated in sensitivity studies. Results of this study show that radiative transfer is important to the maintenance of the multiple cloud layers, and suggest that weak rising vertical motion is the most favorable situation to maintain two separate cloud layers. 相似文献
19.
Charles A. Brock Lawrence F. Radke Jamie H. Lyons Peter V. Hobbs 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1989,9(1-3):129-148
Airborne observations during August 1985 over Greenland and the North American Arctic revealed that dense, discrete haze layers were common above 850 mb. No such hazes were found near the surface in areas remote from local sources of particles. The haze layers aloft were characterized by large light-scattering coefficients due to dry particles (maximum value 1.24 × 10–4m–1) and relatively high total particle concentrations (maximum value 3100 cm–3). Sulfate was the dominant ionic component of the aerosol (0.06 – 1.9 g m–3); carbon soot was also present. Evidence for relatively fresh aerosols, accompanied by NO2 and O3 depletion, was found near, but not within, the haze layers. The hazes probably derived from anthropogenic sources and/or biomass burning at midlatitudes.It is hypothesized that the scavenging of particles by stratus clouds plays an important role in reducing the frequency and intensity of hazes at the surface in the Arctic in summer. Since the detection of haze layers aloft through measurements of column-integrated parameters from the surface (e.g., by lidar) cannot be carried out reliably when clouds are present, such measurements have likely underestimated the occurrence of haze layers in the Arctic, particularly in summer. 相似文献
20.
基于美国AMF寿县观测的云特性研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
美国能源部大气辐射观测计划移动观测ARMAMF（atmospheric radiation measurement mobile facility）2008年首次在我国寿县开展综合观测,为研究云特性提供了很好的资料平台。本文在此次云雷达等观测资料基础上,研究了寿县秋末冬初云高、云厚、云量及其辐射特性,结果发现,寿县有76．3％的观测日有云出现,54．0％的观测时间有云覆盖,中云（以下简称M云）和高云（以下简称H云）出现频率占全部云系的76．7％,天气系统对寿县云系形成有较大影响;云底高度大于3km的降水性云（以下简称P云）出现频率占全部P云的67．7％,是云底高度小于3kmP云的5．3倍,发生在下午的降水占全部P云的47．8％,气溶胶可能对P云的这种分布有较大影响;云和气溶胶减少地面短波辐射的日均值达一99．1W／m。,其中气溶胶减少约占25．1％。不同高度和厚度云对地面辐射通量的影响有较大差异,P云产生最大的冷却效应（一201．9W／m。）,厚度小于2km的H云对地面辐射通量的减少量最少（一32．9w／m。）。另外,用地面单点云辐射观测与中分辨率成像光谱仪MODIS（moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer）资料估计结果对比发现,两种资料有较大差异,差异可达-1．9～-36．9W／m。 相似文献