共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
In this work we describe a technique developed to improve medium-term prediction methods of monthly smoothed sunspot numbers.
Each month, the predictions are updated using the last available observations (see the monthly output in real time at ). The improvement of the predictions is provided by applying an adaptive Kalman filter to the medium-term predictions obtained
by any other method, using the six-monthly mean values of sunspot numbers covering the six months between the last available
value of the 13-month running mean (the starting point for the predictions) and the “current time” (i.e. now). Our technique provides an effective estimate of the sunspot index at the current time. This estimate becomes the new
starting point for the updated prediction that is shifted six months ahead in comparison with the last available 13-month
running mean, and it provides an increase of prediction accuracy. Our technique has been tested on three medium-term prediction
methods that are currently in real-time operation: The McNish–Lincoln method (NGDC), the standard method (SIDC), and the combined
method (SIDC). With our technique, the prediction accuracy for the McNish–Lincoln method is increased by 17 – 30%, for the
standard method by 5 – 21% and for the combined method by 6 – 57%. 相似文献
2.
对紫金山天文台(简称紫台)自1954年至2011年共55 yr的手描黑子图进行了数字化.将紫台太阳黑子相对数(PRSN)和黑子群数(PGSN)与国际太阳影响数据分析中心(SIDC)中的对应数据(月平均太阳黑子相对数(IRSN)和月平均黑子群数(IGSN))进行对比研究,发现:(1)紫台黑子数据与SIDC黑子数据有很强的正相关性,说明紫台黑子数据的可靠性;(2) PRSN和IRSN、PGSN和IGSN的系统偏差分别处于7%左右、5%左右,紫台数据与SIDC数据在活动周的极小期的差异性显著大于极大期;(3)紫台的视宁度从1995年开始变差,直接导致了PRSN (PGSN)与IRSN (IGSN)的比值明显变大,表明视宁度的变化影响了紫台黑子的观测质量. 相似文献
3.
In this work, a procedure to elaborate a homogeneous sunspot area series using the Royal Greenwich Observatory/USAF/NOAA data
(from 1874 to the present) and the De la Rue and co-workers data (from 1832 to 1868) is presented. These two data series correspond
to time intervals that do not overlap and a direct comparison between them could not be carried out. We used the International
Sunspot Number (Ri) and the Group Sunspot Number (RG) as a link between the two original series. Thus, two homogeneous sunspot area series have been built using a simple mathematic
procedure based on linear relations. 相似文献
4.
We perform a nonlinear study of the short-term correlation properties of the solar activity (daily range) in order to reveal
their long-life variations. We estimate the lifetime of the high-frequency component of a Markov-type signal when the high-frequency
component is modulated by a slowly varying multiplicative factor. This treatment is applied to different series of solar activity:
Wolf Sunspot numbers (WSN), Sunspot Group numbers (SGN), and Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group series. We obtain
that all the lifetime estimates exhibit similar temporal variations that agree with the variations of the sunspot lifetimes
directly measured from the RGO data and those of the sunspot areas. An increase of lifetimes by a factor 1.4 is observed from
1915 to 1940. At the same time, a stable ratio is observed between the sunspot group’s maximal area and the lifetime, confirming
the Gnevyshev–Waldmeier-type relationship. The analysis identifies also time intervals where the homogeneity of the different
time series may be questioned. 相似文献
5.
C. Verbeeck P. A. Higgins T. Colak F. T. Watson V. Delouille B. Mampaey R. Qahwaji 《Solar physics》2013,283(1):67-95
Since the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) began recording ≈?1 TB of data per day, there has been an increased need to automatically extract features and events for further analysis. Here we compare the overall detection performance, correlations between extracted properties, and usability for feature tracking of four solar feature-detection algorithms: the Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART) detects active regions in line-of-sight magnetograms; the Automated Solar Activity Prediction code (ASAP) detects sunspots and pores in white-light continuum images; the Sunspot Tracking And Recognition Algorithm (STARA) detects sunspots in white-light continuum images; the Spatial Possibilistic Clustering Algorithm (SPoCA) automatically segments solar EUV images into active regions (AR), coronal holes (CH), and quiet Sun (QS). One month of data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and SOHO/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) instruments during 12 May?–?23 June 2003 is analysed. The overall detection performance of each algorithm is benchmarked against National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) catalogues using various feature properties such as total sunspot area, which shows good agreement, and the number of features detected, which shows poor agreement. Principal Component Analysis indicates a clear distinction between photospheric properties, which are highly correlated to the first component and account for 52.86% of variability in the data set, and coronal properties, which are moderately correlated to both the first and second principal components. Finally, case studies of NOAA 10377 and 10365 are conducted to determine algorithm stability for tracking the evolution of individual features. We find that magnetic flux and total sunspot area are the best indicators of active-region emergence. Additionally, for NOAA 10365, it is shown that the onset of flaring occurs during both periods of magnetic-flux emergence and complexity development. 相似文献
6.
Recently, new estimates of the solar cycle length (SCL) have been calculated using the Zurich Sunspot Number (RZ) and the Regression-Fourier-Calculus (RFC)-method, a mathematically rigorous method involving multiple regression, Fourier
approximation, and analytical expressions for the first derivative. In this short contribution, we show estimates of the solar
cycle length using the RFC-method and the Group Sunspot Number (RG) instead the RZ. Several authors have showed the advantages of RG for the analysis of sunspot activity before 1850. The use of RG solves some doubtful solar cycle length estimates obtained around 1800 using RZ. 相似文献
7.
We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot-group data collected since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, and H classes according to the Zurich classification], the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated how many small and large sunspot groups occurred, their sunspot numbers [SSN], and the Zurich numbers [Rz] from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We found that the temporal variations for these three different separations behave similarly. We also analyzed the general shape of solar cycles from Cycle 1 to 23 by using monthly International Sunspot Number [ISSN] data and found that the durations of maxima were about 2.9 years. Finally, we used the ascending time and SSN relationship and found that the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to occur later than 2011. Thus, we conclude that i) one possible reason for a double maximum in solar cycles is the different behavior of large and small sunspot groups, and ii) a double maximum is expected for Solar Cycle 24. 相似文献
8.
Smoothed monthly mean Ap indices are decomposed into two components (Ap)
c and (Ap)
n. The former is directly correlated with the current sunspot numbers, while the latter is shown to achieve its maximum correlation with the sunspot numbers after some time lag. This latter property is used to develop a method for predicting the sunspot maximum based on the observed value of (Ap)
n maximum which occurs during the preceding cycle. The value of R
M for cycle 23 predicted by this method is 149.3 ± 19.9. A method to estimate the rise time (from solar minimum to maximum) has been developed (based on analyses of Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann, 1994) and yields a value of 4.2 years. Using an estimate that the minimum between cycles 22 and 23 occurred in May 1996, it is predicted that the sunspot maximum for cycle 23 will occur in July 2000. 相似文献
9.
The paper presents the effect of solar flare index on Antarctic O3 depletion. Solar flare index is the actual representative of energy output of any flare event. A calibration curve between
solar flare index and relative sunspot number is drawn. (A straight line is obtained and correlation coefficient between two
variables is 0.95, n = 27, P < 0.01).The equation of straight line from least square principle becomes,
Solar Flare Index (If) = 1.0932 * Relative Sunspot Number- 9.4391.
From this equation solar flare index for long period is calculated from known values of relative sunspot numbers. O3 concentration of two antarctic Survey Stations, Halley Bay (76 °S, 27 °W) and McMurdo (78 °S, 166 °E) are considered for
analysis and following results are obtained:
(i) Correlation coefficient between O3 concentration and solar flare index during Antarctic Spring is not so significant.
(ii) It is concluded that dramatic decrease of O3concentration during Antarctic Spring is independent of solar parameters.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
10.
Zhanle Du 《Solar physics》2011,273(1):231-253
The shape of each sunspot cycle is found to be well described by a modified Gaussian function with four parameters: peak size
A, peak timing t
m, width B, and asymmetry α. The four-parameter function can be further reduced to a two-parameter function by assuming that B and α are quadratic functions of t
m, computed from the starting time (T
0). It is found that the shape can be better fitted by the four-parameter function, while the remaining behavior of the cycle
can be better predicted by the two-parameter function when using the data from a few (about two) months after the starting
time defined by the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers. As a new solar cycle is ongoing, its remaining behavior can be
constructed by the above four- or two-parameter function. A running test shows that the maximum amplitude of the cycle can
be predicted to within 15% at about 25 months into the cycle based on the two-parameter function. A preliminary modeling to
the first 24 months of data available for the current cycle indicates that the peak of cycle 24 may probably occur around
June 2013±7 months with a size of 72±11. The above results are compared to those by quasi-Planck functions. 相似文献
11.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):471-485
Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with
the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R
z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R
z) with R
z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R
z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86)
for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc.
377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes
and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present
study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation
+0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R
z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the
sunspot number R
z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R
z(max )=129.7±16.3. 相似文献
12.
The purpose of the present study is to develop an empirical model based on precursors in the preceding solar cycle that can
be used to forecast the peak sunspot number and ascent time of the next solar cycle. Statistical parameters are derived for
each solar cycle using “Monthly” and “Monthly smoothed” (SSN) data of international sunspot number (R
i). Primarily the variability in monthly sunspot number during different phases of the solar cycle is considered along with
other statistical parameters that are computed using solar cycle characteristics, like ascent time, peak sunspot number and
the length of the solar cycle. Using these statistical parameters, two mathematical formulae are developed to compute the
quantities [Q
C]
n
and [L]
n
for each nth solar cycle. It is found that the peak sunspot number and ascent time of the n+1th solar cycle correlates well with the parameters [Q
C]
n
and [L]
n
/[S
Max]
n+1 and gives a correlation coefficient of 0.97 and 0.92, respectively. Empirical relations are obtained using least square fitting,
which relates [S
Max]
n+1 with [Q
C]
n
and [T
a]
n+1 with [L]
n
/[S
Max]
n+1. These relations predict a peak of 74±10 in monthly smoothed sunspot number and an ascent time of 4.9±0.4 years for Solar
Cycle 24, when November 2008 is considered as the start time for this cycle. Three different methods, which are commonly used
to define solar cycle characteristics are used and mathematical relations developed for forecasting peak sunspot number and
ascent time of the upcoming solar cycle, are examined separately. 相似文献
13.
H. Kiliç 《Solar physics》2009,255(1):155-162
The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the
Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum,
and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities
in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion
of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys.
129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys.
65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum
ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23. 相似文献
14.
Most of the present models and reconstructions of solar irradiance use the concept of Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) to account for the influence of sunspots on solar brightness. Since PSI is based on measured sunspot areas a firm database of such areas is essential. We show, however, that a significant disagreement exists between the data provided by the Royal Greenwich Observatory (from 1874 to 1976) and newer measurements provided by the observatories of Rome, Yunnan, Catania, and the US Air Force. The overlap of the time intervals over which sunspot areas were measured at Greenwich and Rome allows us to quantify the difference between the Greenwich and other data sets. We find that the various data sets differ, at least in a statistical sense, mainly by a correction factor of between 1.15 and 1.25.The revised time series of sunspot areas correlates well with the Zürich sunspot relative numbers over the last 120 years, with the relationship between sunspot areas and sunspot numbers changing only slightly from one cycle to the next. In particular, no indication exists for any extraordinary magnetic behavior of the Sun during the last 2 decades, as might falsely be concluded if the various sunspot area data sets are uncritically combined. There are, however, some indications that cycles 15 and 16 deviate from the rest. We expect that our results should have a significant influence on the reconstruction of the historical solar irradiance. 相似文献
15.
A stochastic prediction model for the sunspot cycle is proposed. The prediction model is based on a modified binary mixture
of Laplace distribution functions and a moving-average model over the estimated model parameters. A six-parameter modified
binary mixture of Laplace distribution functions is used for the modeling of the shape of a generic sunspot cycle. The model
parameters are estimated for 23 sunspot cycles independently, and the primary prediction-model parameters are derived from
these estimated model parameters using a moving-average stochastic model. A correction factor (hump factor) is introduced
to make an initial prediction. The hump factor is computed for a given sunspot cycle as the ratio of the model estimated after
the completion of a sunspot cycle (post-facto model) and the prediction of the moving-average model. The hump factors can be applied one at a time over the moving-average
prediction model to get a final prediction of a sunspot cycle. The present model is used to predict the characteristics of
Sunspot Cycle 24. The methodology is validated using the previous Sunspot Cycles 21, 22, and 23, which shows the adequacy
and the applicability of the prediction model. The statistics of the variations of sunspot numbers at high solar activity
are used to provide the lower and upper bound for the predictions using the present model. 相似文献
16.
K. F. Tapping D. Boteler P. Charbonneau A. Crouch A. Manson H. Paquette 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):309-326
We develop a model for estimating solar total irradiance since 1600 AD using the sunspot number record as input, since this
is the only intrinsic record of solar activity extending back far enough in time. Sunspot number is strongly correlated, albeit
nonlinearly with the 10.7-cm radio flux (F
10.7), which forms a continuous record back to 1947. This enables the nonlinear relationship to be estimated with usable accuracy
and shows that relationship to be consistent over multiple solar activity cycles. From the sunspot number record we estimate
F
10.7 values back to 1600 AD. F
10.7 is linearly correlated with the total amount of magnetic flux in active regions, and we use it as input to a simple cascade
model for the other magnetic flux components. The irradiance record is estimated by using these magnetic flux components plus
a very rudimentary model for the modulation of energy flow to the photosphere by the subphotospheric magnetic flux reservoir
feeding the photospheric magnetic structures. Including a Monte Carlo analysis of the consequences of measurement and fitting
errors, the model indicates the mean irradiance during the Maunder Minimum was about 1 ± 0.4 W m−2 lower than the mean irradiance over the last solar activity cycle. 相似文献
17.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2006,233(1):107-115
This paper examines the variations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) during solar cycle 23
and compares these with those of several other indices. During cycle 23, solar and interplanetary parameters had an increase
from 1996 (sunspot minimum) to ∼2000, but the interval 1998–2002 had short-term fluctuations. Sunspot numbers had peaks in
1998, 1999, 2000 (largest), 2001 (second largest), and 2002. Other solar indices had matching peaks, but the peak in 2000
was larger than the peak in 2001 only for a few indices, and smaller or equal for other solar indices. The solar open magnetic
flux had very different characteristics for different solar latitudes. The high solar latitudes (45∘–90∘) in both N and S hemispheres had flux evolutions anti-parallel to sunspot activity. Fluxes in low solar latitudes (0∘–45∘) evolved roughly parallel to sunspot activity, but the finer structures (peaks etc. during sunspot maximum years) did not
match with sunspot peaks. Also, the low latitude fluxes had considerable N–S asymmetry. For CMEs and ICMEs, there were increases
similar to sunspots during 1996–2000, and during 2000–2002, there was good matching of peaks. But the peaks in 2000 and 2001
for CMEs and ICMEs had similar sizes, in contrast to the 2000 peak being greater than the 2001 peak for sunspots. Whereas
ICMEs started decreasing from 2001 onwards, CMEs continued to remain high in 2002, probably due to extra contribution from
high-latitude prominences, which had no equivalent interplanetary ICMEs or shocks. Cosmic ray intensity had features matching
with those of sunspots during 2000–2001, with the 2000 peak (on a reverse scale, actually a cosmic ray decrease or trough)
larger than the 2001 peak. However, cosmic ray decreases started with a delay and ended with a delay with respect to sunspot
activity. 相似文献
18.
The monthly number of polar faculae of the Sun were determined from white-light images at spectral band (eff) = (4100 ± 200) Å obtained at the Kislovodsk Solar Station during 1960–1994. Corrected monthly numbers were obtained with the help of the visibility function. The level of polar activity larger than 1 above the monthly running mean was calculated, and the relation between the polar faculae and sunspot cycle was studied. We confirmed earlier results (Makarov and Makarova, 1987) that the monthly number of polar faculae, NPF
m
(t) correlates with the monthly sunspot area A
m
(Sp)(t + T) with a time shift T 6 yr. The new polar faculae cycle began in the middle of 1991. Peculiarities of the first part of sunspot cycle 23 are discussed.Guest scientist with the University of Arizona and Zetetic Institute. Tucson, Arizona 85719, U.S.A. 相似文献
19.
The distributions of sunspot longitude at first appearance and at disappearance display an east-west asymmetry that results
from a reduction in visibility as one moves from disk centre to the limb. To first order, this is explicable in terms of simple
geometrical foreshortening. However, the centre-to-limb visibility variation is much larger than that predicted by foreshortening.
Sunspot visibility is also known to be affected by the Wilson effect: the apparent ‘dish’ shape of the sunspot photosphere
caused by the temperature-dependent variation of the geometrical position of the τ=1 layer. In this article we investigate the role of the Wilson effect on the sunspot appearance distributions, deducing a
mean depth for the umbral τ=1 layer of 500 – 1500 km. This is based on the comparison of observations of sunspot longitude distribution and Monte Carlo
simulations of sunspot appearance using different models for spot growth rate, growth time and depth of Wilson depression. 相似文献
20.
Results are presented from a study of solar radius measurements taken with the solar astrolabe at the TUBITAK National Observatory
(TUG) over seven years, 2001–2007. The data series with standard deviation of 0.35 arcsec shows the long-term variational
trend with 0.04 arcsec/year. On the other hand, the data series of solar radius are compared with the data of sunspot activity
and H-α flare index for the same period. Over the seven year trend, we have found significant linear anti-correlations between the
solar radius and other indicators such as sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and H-α flare index. While the solar radius displays the strongest anti-correlation (−0.7676) with sunspot numbers, it shows a significant
anti-correlation of −0.6365 with sunspot areas. But, the anti-correlation between the solar radius and H-α flare index is found to be −0.4975, slightly lower than others. In addition, we computed Hurst exponent of the data sets
ranging between 0.7214 and 0.7996, exhibiting the persistent behavior for the long term trend. In the light of the strong
correlations with high significance, we may suggest that there are a causal relationship between the solar radius and solar
time series such as sunspot activity and H-α flare index. 相似文献