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1.
Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3
Xiu Yang Erda Lin Shiming Ma Hui Ju Liping Guo Wei Xiong Yue Li Yinlong Xu 《Climatic change》2007,84(1):45-58
Northeast China comprises Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning Provinces, with a total area of 790,000 km2 and a population of about 107 million. Northeast China, located at relatively high latitudes, (from about 39 to 53°N), is
one of the coolest regions in China with long and cold winters, a short growth season and frequent cold extreme events, which
are adverse to agricultural production. However, since the 1980s, Northeast China has experienced significant warming with
annual mean temperature rising by 1.0–2.5°C. The increase of accumulated temperature, the extension of the growth period and
the recession of summer cool disasters all contributed to improved conditions for crop growth and led to a northward movement
of the agricultural climate zone. In addition, the adaptation to warming including the adjustment of crop composition and
structure as well as the adoption of advanced technologies greatly facilitated agricultural development. As a result, total
grain production in the region increased rapidly. This paper describes in detail climate change, adaptation measures and final
agricultural outcomes, alongside with economic and political factors and the role of different political actors in Northeast
China. 相似文献
2.
Fortuniak Krzysztof Przybylak Rajmund Araźny Andrzej Pawlak Włodzimierz Wyszyński Przemysław 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,130(3-4):959-970
Maize is grown by millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia (SA) under diverse environments. The crop is grown in different seasons in a year with varying exposure to weather extremes, including high temperatures at critical growth stages which are expected to increase with climate change. This study assesses the impact of current and future heat stress on maize and the benefit of heat-tolerant varieties in SA. Annual mean maximum temperatures may increase by 1.4–1.8 °C in 2030 and 2.1–2.6 °C in 2050, with large monthly, seasonal, and spatial variations across SA. The extent of heat stressed areas in SA could increase by up to 12 % in 2030 and 21 % in 2050 relative to the baseline. The impact of heat stress and the benefit from heat-tolerant varieties vary with the level of temperature increase and planting season. At a regional scale, climate change would reduce rainfed maize yield by an average of 3.3–6.4 % in 2030 and 5.2–12.2 % in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3–8 % in 2030 and 5–14 % in 2050 if current varieties were grown under the future climate. Under projected climate, heat-tolerant varieties could minimize yield loss (relative to current maize varieties) by up to 36 and 93 % in 2030 and 33 and 86 % in 2050 under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Heat-tolerant maize varieties, therefore, have the potential to shield maize farmers from severe yield loss due to heat stress and help them adapt to climate change impacts. 相似文献
3.
The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Northeast China (NEC) is one of the major agricultural production areas in China and also an obvious region of climate warming. We were motivated to investigate the impacts of climate warming on the northern limits of maize planting. Additionally, we wanted to assess how spatial shifts in the cropping system impact the maize yields in NEC. To understand these impacts, we used the daily average air temperature data in 72 weather stations and regional experiment yield data from Jilin Province. Averaged across NEC, the annual air temperature increased by 0.38 °C per decade. The annual accumulated temperature above 10 °C (AAT10) followed a similar trend, increased 66 °C d per decade from 1961 to 2007, which caused a northward expansion of the northern limits of maize. The warming enabled early-maturing maize hybrids to be sown in the northern areas of Heilongjiang Province where it was not suitable for growing maize before the warming. In the southern areas of Heilongjiang Province and the eastern areas of Jilin Province, the early-maturing maize hybrids could be replaced by the middle-maturing hybrids with a longer growing season. The maize in the northern areas of Liaoning Province was expected to change from middle-maturing to late-maturing hybrids. Changing the hybrids led to increase the maize yield. When the early-maturing hybrids were replaced by middle-maturing hybrids in Jilin Province, the maize yields would increase by 9.8 %. Similarly, maize yields would increase by 7.1 % when the middle-maturing hybrids were replaced by late-maturing hybrids. 相似文献
4.
Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in northern China since the 1970s? 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Wenjiao Shi Fulu Tao Jiyuan Liu Xinliang Xu Wenhui Kuang Jinwei Dong Xiaoli Shi 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):163-177
Improving the understanding of cropland change and its driving factors is a current focus for policy decision-makers in China. The datasets of cropland and cropland changes from the 1970s to the 2000s were used to explore whether climate change has produced spatio-temporal changes to cropland in northern China since the 1970s. Two representative indicators of heat and water resources, which are important determinants of crop growth and productivity, were considered to track climate change, including active accumulated temperatures ≥10 °C (AAT10) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Our results showed that rapid cropland change has occurred in northern China since the 1970s, and the area of cropland reclamation (10.23 million ha) was much greater than that of abandoned cropland (2.94 million ha). In the 2000s, the area of cropland with AAT10 higher than 3,000 °C·d increased, while the area of cropland with an SPEI greater than 0.25 decreased compared to the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. It appears that climate warming has provided thermal conditions that have aided rapid cropland reclamation in northern China since the 1970s, and drier climatic conditions did not become a limiting factor for cropland reclamation, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s. Approximately 70 % of cropland reclamation areas were located in warmer but drier regions from the 1990s to the 2000s, and approximately 40 % of cropland abandonment occurred in warmer and wetter conditions that were suitable for agriculture during the periods from the 1970s to the 1980s and the 1990s to the 2000s. Our results suggest that climate change can be considered a driving factor of cropland change in the past several decades in northern China, in addition to socioeconomic factors. 相似文献
5.
Kate Forrest Brian Tarroja Felicia Chiang Amir AghaKouchak Scott Samuelsen 《Climatic change》2018,147(3-4):395-409
Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate scenarios, assessing their value as climate refugia. In particular, we quantify the aggregated benefit of countries’ emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement), and also of further constraining global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, against an unmitigated scenario of 4.5 °C warming. We also quantify the contribution that can be made by using smart spatial conservation planning to facilitate some levels of autonomous (i.e. natural) adaptation to climate change by dispersal. We find that without mitigation, on average 33% of each conservation area can act as climate refugium (or 18% if species are unable to disperse), whereas if warming is constrained to 2 °C, the average area of climate refuges doubles to 67% of each conservation area (or, without dispersal, more than doubles to 56% of each area). If the country pledges are fulfilled, an intermediate estimate of 47–52% (or 31–38%, without dispersal) is obtained. We conclude that the Nationally Determined Contributions alone have important but limited benefits for biodiversity conservation, with larger benefits accruing if warming is constrained to 2 °C. Greater benefits would result if warming was constrained to well below 2 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement. 相似文献
6.
Scenario Analysis on the Adaptation of Different Maize Varieties to Future Climate Change in Northeast China 
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下载免费PDF全文 Based on gridded meteorological data for the period 1981–2100 from the RegCM3 regional model, the changing trends of climatic resources in Northeast China are analyzed, and the distributions of maize varieties are accordingly adjusted. In order to explore the effects of different adaptation countermeasures on climatic productivity and meteorological suitability in the future, maize cultivars with resistance to high temperatures and/or drought are selected. The results show that, in the future, there is likely to be a significant increase in thermal resources, and potential atmospheric evaporation will increase correspondingly.Meanwhile, radiation is predicted to increase significantly during 2041–2070 in the growing season. However, changes in precipitation are unlikely to be sufficient enough to offset the intensification in atmospheric evaporation caused by the temperature increase. Water resources and high temperatures are found to be the two major factors constraining grain yield. The results also show that the warming climate will be favorable for maize production where thermal resources are already limited, such as in central and northern Heilongjiang Province and eastern Jilin Province; while in areas that are already relatively warm, such as Liaoning Province, climatic productivity will be reduced. The climatic productivity and the meteorological suitability of maize are found to improve when the planting of resistant varieties is modeled. The utilization of agricultural climatic resources through the adaptation countermeasures of maize varieties is to increase obviously with time. Specifically, maize with drought-resistant properties will have a marked influence on meteorological suitability during 2011–2070, with suitable areas expanding. During 2071–2100, those maize varieties with their upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature increased by 2℃, or water requirement reduced to 94%, or upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature increased by 1℃ and water requirement reduced to 98%, all exhibit significant differences in climatic potential productivity, compared to the present-day varieties. The meteorological suitability of maize is predicted to increase in some parts of Heilongjiang Provine, with the eastern boundary of the "unavailable" area shifting westward. 相似文献
7.
This paper explores changes in climatic variables, including solar radiation, rainfall, fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) and temperature, during wheat season (October to May) and maize season (June to September) from 1961 to 2003 at four sites in the North China Plain (NCP), and then evaluates the effects of these changes on crop growth processes, productivity and water demand by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator. A significant decline in radiation and rainfall was detected during the 43 years, while both temperature and FDR exhibit an increasing trend in both wheat and maize seasons. The average trend of each climatic variable for each crop season from the four sites is that radiation decreased by 13.2 and 6.2 MJ m?2 a?1, precipitation decreased by 0.1 and 1.8 mm a?1, minimum temperature increased by 0.05 and 0.02°C a?1, maximum temperature increased by 0.03 and 0.01°C a?1, FDR increased by 0.21 and 0.38% a?1 during wheat and maize season, respectively. Simulated crop water demand and potential yield was significantly decreased because of the declining trend in solar radiation. On average, crop water demand was decreased by 2.3 mm a?1 for wheat and 1.8 mm a?1 for maize if changes in crop variety were not considered. Simulated potential crop yields under fully irrigated condition declined about 45.3 kg ha?1 a?1 for wheat and 51.4 kg ha?1 a?1 for maize at the northern sites, Beijing and Tianjin. They had no significant changes in the southern sites, Jinan and Zhengzhou. Irrigation, fertilization development and crop variety improvement are main factors to contribute to the increase in actual crop yield for the wheat–maize double cropping system, contrasted to the decline in the potential crop yield. Further research on how the improvement in crop varieties and management practices can counteract the impact of climatic change may provide insight into the future sustainability of wheat–maize double crop rotations in the NCP. 相似文献
8.
作物系数是计算作物蒸散量的关键参数。利用2006—2008年和2011年辽宁锦州玉米农田生态系统的涡度相关、气象、作物发育期及叶面积指数观测数据,分析不受水分胁迫条件下玉米逐日作物系数特征及其与叶面积指数的关系。研究表明:作物系数与玉米农田实际蒸散均呈单峰型变化,约在7月末至8月初达到最大值 (玉米开花吐丝期)。在此基础上,建立了不受水分胁迫条件下玉米逐日作物系数与叶面积指数关系 (达到0.01显著性水平), 同时,采用积温表示的标准化生育期方法模拟相对叶面积指数,并建立了逐日作物系数与相对叶面积指数关系 (达到0.01显著性水平),解决了无叶面积观测地区玉米逐日实际蒸散量的计算。研究结果可为玉米农田用水管理以及灌溉措施的制定提供参考。 相似文献
9.
For almost two decades, politicians have been negotiating temperature limits to which anthropogenic global warming should be restricted, and 2 °C has emerged as benchmark for danger. However, there has been a lack of scientific research into the implications of such a change for African climate. This study aims to provide information for mitigation debates; through an examination of temperature and precipitation changes in Africa associated with 1 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C of global warming. Data from Global Climate Models show little significant precipitation change at 1 °C, then larger anomalies at 2 °C which are strengthened and extended at 3 °C and 4 °C, including a wet signal in East Africa, and dry signals in Southern Africa, the Guinea Coast, and the west of the Sahel. Some of the models project changes with potential for severe societal implications. Despite the uncertainty attached to these projections, they highlight risks associated with 2 °C and beyond. Using these findings as a framework for impact assessment and evaluation, further research has the potential to uncover the implications of global warming for African regions. 相似文献
10.
Climate change can bring positive and negative effects on Chinese agriculture, but negative impacts tend to dominate. The annual mean surface temperature has risen about 0.5–0.8 °C. The precipitation trends have not been identified during the past 100 years in China, although the frequency and intensity of extreme weather/climate events have increased, especially of drought. Water scarcity, more frequent and serious outbreaks of insects and diseases, and soil degradation caused by climate change have impacted agro-environmental conditions. However, temperature rise prolonged the crop growth seasons and cold damages have reduced in Northeast China. The projection of climate change indicates that the surface temperature will continue to increase with about 3.9 to 6.0 °C and precipitation is expected to increase by 9 to 11 % at the end of 21st century in China. Climate warming will provide more heat and as a consequence, the boundary of the triple-cropping system (TCS) will extend northwards by as much as 200 to 300 km, from the Yangtze River Valley to the Yellow River Basin, and the current double-cropping system (DCS) will move to the central part of China, into the current single cropping system (SCS) area which will decrease in SCS surface area of 23.1 % by 2050. Climate warming will also affect the optimum location for the cultivation of China’s main crop varieties. If no measures are taken to adapt to climate changes, compared with the potential yield in 1961–1990, yields of irrigated wheat, corn and rice are projected to decrease by 2.2–6.7 %, 0.4 %–11.9 % and 4.3–12.4 % respectively in the 2050s. Climate warming will enhance potential evaporation and reduce the availability of soil moisture, thus causing a greater need for agricultural irrigation, intensifying the conflict between water supply and demand, especially in arid and semi-arid areas of China. With adequate irrigation, the extent of the reduction in yield of China’s corn and wheat can be improved by 5 % to 15 %, and rice by 5 % or so than the potential yield in 1961–1990. Adaptive measures can reduce the agricultural loss under climate change. If effective measures are taken in a timely way, then climate change in the next 30–50 years will not have a significant influence on China’s food security. 相似文献
11.
Igor V. Polyakov Vladimir A. Alexeev Uma S. Bhatt Evgenia I. Polyakova Xiangdong Zhang 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):439-457
Climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean have wide-spread implications for Europe, Africa, and the Americas. This study assesses the relative contribution of the long-term trend and variability of North Atlantic warming using EOF analysis of deep-ocean and near-surface observations. Our analysis demonstrates that the recent warming over the North Atlantic is linked to both long-term (including anthropogenic and natural) climate change and multidecadal variability (MDV, ~50–80 years). Our results suggest a general warming trend of 0.031 ± 0.006°C/decade in the upper 2,000 m North Atlantic over the last 80 years of the twentieth century, although during this time there are periods in which short-term trends were strongly amplified by MDV. For example, MDV accounts for ~60% of North Atlantic warming since 1970. The single-sign basin-scale pattern of MDV with prolonged periods of warming (cooling) in the upper ocean layer and opposite tendency in the lower layer is evident from observations. This pattern is associated with a slowdown (enhancement) of the North Atlantic thermohaline overturning circulation during negative (positive) MDV phases. In contrast, the long-term trend exhibits warming in tropical and mid-latitude North Atlantic and a pattern of cooling in regions associated with major northward heat transports, consistent with a slowdown of the North Atlantic circulation as evident from observations and confirmed by selected modeling results. This localized cooling has been masked in recent decades by warming during the positive phase of MDV. Finally, since the North Atlantic Ocean plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating the global thermohaline circulation, the multidecadal fluctuations discussed here should be considered when assessing long-term climate change and variability, both in the North Atlantic and at global scales. 相似文献
12.
Multiple cropping, defined as harvesting more than once a year, is a widespread land management strategy in tropical and subtropical agriculture. It is a way of intensifying agricultural production and diversifying the crop mix for economic and environmental benefits. Here we present the first global gridded data set of multiple cropping systems and quantify the physical area of more than 200 systems, the global multiple cropping area and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. We use national and sub-national data on monthly crop-specific growing areas around the year 2000 (1998–2002) for 26 crop groups, global cropland extent and crop harvested areas to identify sequential cropping systems of two or three crops with non-overlapping growing seasons. We find multiple cropping systems on 135 million hectares (12% of global cropland) with 85 million hectares in irrigated agriculture. 34%, 13% and 10% of the rice, wheat and maize area, respectively are under multiple cropping, demonstrating the importance of such cropping systems for cereal production. Harvesting currently single cropped areas a second time could increase global harvested areas by 87–395 million hectares, which is about 45% lower than previous estimates. Some scenarios of intensification indicate that it could be enough land to avoid expanding physical cropland into other land uses but attainable intensification will depend on the local context and the crop yields attainable in the second cycle and its related environmental costs. 相似文献
13.
Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°–15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°–60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°–45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°–45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects. 相似文献
14.
长江中下游地区类寒潮发生频次的变化特征分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文采用中国国家气候中心提供的1957-2008年中国753个台站逐日13温度资料,挑选出长江中下游地区(27.5°～32.5°N、112°～123°E)的51个测站,对该地区类寒潮发生频次特征进行分析,得出主要结论:长江中下游地区类寒潮的发生随着全球变暖的气候趋势,总体频次减少.有明显的年代际特征,20世纪60-80年代,类寒潮发生频次逐渐减少,90年代类寒潮又略增多,1973年前后出现突变.长江中下游地区主要以5年和14年信号周期变化,长江中下游地区类寒潮发生频次最高的月份分别为每年3月和11月,但存在明显的年际差异,年际差异最大的区域在皖南、赣北和浙西. 相似文献
15.
Lima D. Martins Marcelo A. Tomaz Fernando C. Lidon Fábio M. DaMatta José C. Ramalho 《Climatic change》2014,126(3-4):365-379
Modelling studies predicted that climate change will have strong impacts on the coffee crop, although no information on the effective impact of elevated CO2 on this plant exists. Here, we aim at providing a first glimpse on the effect of the combined impact of enhanced [CO2] and high temperature on the leaf mineral content and balance on this important tropical crop. Potted plants from two genotypes of Coffea arabica (cv. Icatu and IPR 108) and one from C. canephora (cv. Conilon Clone 153) were grown under 380 or 700 μL CO2 L?1 air, for 1 year, after which were exposed to an stepwise increase in temperature from 25/20 °C (day/night) up to 42/34 °C, over 8 weeks. Leaf macro???(N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S) and micronutrients (B, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) concentrations were analyzed at 25/20 °C (control), 31/25 °C, 37/30 °C and 42/34 °C. At the control temperature, the 700 μL L?1 grown plants showed a moderate dilution effect (between 7 % and 25 %) in CL 153 (for N, Mg, Ca, Fe) and Icatu (for N, K and Fe), but not in IPR 108 (except for Fe) when compared to the 380 μL L?1 plants. For temperatures higher than control most nutrients tended to increase, frequently presenting maximal contents at 42/34 °C (or 37/30 °C), although the relation between [CO2] treatments did not appreciably change. Such increases offset the few dilution effects observed under high growth [CO2] at 25/20 °C. No clear species responses were found considering [CO2] and temperature impacts, although IPR 108 seemed less sensitive to [CO2]. Despite the changes promoted by [CO2] and heat, the large majority of mineral ratios were kept within a range considered adequate, suggesting that this plant can maintain mineral balances in a context of climate changes and global warming. 相似文献
16.
17.
Impacts of climate change on crop evapotranspiration with ensemble GCM projections in the North China Plain 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
As one of the key grain-producing regions in China, the agricultural system in the North China Plain (NCP) is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited water resources and strong dependence on irrigation for crop production. Exploring the impacts of climate change on crop evapotranspiration (ET) is of importance for water management and agricultural sustainability. The VIP (Vegetation Interface Processes) process-based ecosystem model and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) modeling system are applied to quantify ET responses of a wheat-maize cropping system to climate change. The ensemble projections of six General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the B2 and A2 scenarios in the 2050s over the NCP are used to account for the uncertainty of the projections. The thermal time requirements (TTR) of crops are assumed to remain constant under air warming conditions. It is found that in this case the length of the crop growth period will be shortened, which will result in the reduction of crop water consumption and possible crop productivity loss. Spatially, the changes of ET during the growth periods (ETg) for wheat range from ?7 to 0 % with the average being ?1.5?±?1.2 % under the B2 scenario, and from ?8 to 2 % with the average being ?2.7?±?1.3 % under the A2 scenario/consistently, changes of ETg for maize are from ?10 to 8 %, with the average being ?0.4?±?4.9 %, under the B2 scenario and from ?8 to 8 %, with the average being ?1.2?±?4.1 %, under the A2 scenario. Numerical analysis is also done on the condition that the length of the crop growth periods remains stable under the warming condition via breeding new crop varieties. In this case, TTR will be higher and the crop water requirements will increase, with the enhancement of the productivity. It is suggested that the options for adaptation to climate change include no action and accepting crop loss associated with the reduction in ETg, or breeding new cultivars that would maintain or increase crop productivity and result in an increase in ETg. In the latter case, attention should be paid to developing improved water conservation techniques to help compensate for the increased ETg. 相似文献
18.
采用中国地区137个探空站及地面160站资料,分析了1980—2009年中国东部上空温度变化特征。近30年来中国东部对流层上层至平流层中下层的降温幅度大于对流层中下层的增温幅度。东北地区上空温度季节变化幅度较大,东南地区上空温度季节变化幅度较小。中国东部中低空（近地面至500 hPa）温度在不同区域、不同季节对全球变暖的响应不同：35°N以北无降温,以南有降温;冬季均升温,夏季有降温。 相似文献
19.
中国东部北方地区冬季降雪的时空特征及其与全球异常海温的联系 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于中国东部北方地区279个气象台站1961-2008年的观测资料,以及1°×1°的全球海表温度资料,运用主成分分析、小波分析、相关分析等方法探讨中国东部北方地区冬季降雪的时空特征及同期全球海温与其的相关性。研究发现：中国东部北方区域（以下简称研究区）冬季降雪量存在2-3a、7-8a的高频振荡周期,及一个准16a的年代际尺度的低频振荡周期。在1961-2008年间,研究区域冬季降雪量总体呈现上升趋势,特别是45°N以北的研究区北部区域冬季降雪量在48年问增加显著,而45°N以南的研究区南部区域冬季降雪量变化并不明显。分析发现,位于北大西洋上30°-50°N,10°-40°W海区的海温与研究区域降雪的第一、二特征向量均为显著的正相关,研究区北部冬季降雪量与海温关系密切,南部区域冬季降雪量与全球海温的相关性不明显,海温变暖可能是导致研究区北部降雪显著增加的重要因素。 相似文献
20.
A multicore from Emerald Basin, on the continental margin off Nova Scotia, has a modern 14C age at the top, and other 14C dates indicate a linear sedimentation rate of ~30 cm/ka to 1600 calendar years BP. This rate is great enough to record century-to-millennial scale changes in the surface and deep (~250 m) waters in the basin that are influenced by the Labrador Current. We applied five proxies for seawater temperature changes to the sediments of Emerald Basin, including the percent abundance and the oxygen isotope ratio (d 18O) of the polar planktonic foraminifer N. pachyderma (s.), the unsaturation ratio of alkenones (U k' 37) produced by prymnesiophyte phytoplankton, and the d 18O and Mg/Ca of benthic foraminifera. All five proxies indicate the ocean warmed suddenly sometime in the past 150 years or so. The exact timing of this event is uncertain because 14C dating is inaccurate in recent centuries, but this abrupt warming probably correlates with widespread evidence for warming in the Arctic in the nineteenth century. Because the Canadian Archipelago is one of the two main sources for the Labrador Current, warming and melting of ice caps in that region may have affected Labrador Current properties. Before this recent warming, sea surface temperature was continually lower by 1–2 °C, and bottom water was colder by about 6 °C in Emerald Basin. These results suggest that there was no Medieval Warm Period in the coastal waters off Nova Scotia. Because there is also no evidence of medieval warming in the Canadian archipelago, it seems likely that coastal waters from Baffin Bay to at least as far south as Nova Scotia were continually cold for ~1500 of the past 1600 years. 相似文献