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1.
The conventional integral approach is very well established in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). However, Monte‐Carlo (MC) simulations can become an efficient and flexible alternative against conventional PSHA when more complicated factors (e.g. spatial correlation of ground shaking) are involved. This study aims at showing the implementation of MC simulation techniques for computing the annual exceedance rates of dynamic ground‐motion intensity measures (GMIMs) (e.g. peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration). We use multi‐scale random field technique to incorporate spatial correlation and near‐fault directivity while generating MC simulations to assess the probabilistic seismic hazard of dynamic GMIMs. Our approach is capable of producing conditional hazard curves as well. We show various examples to illustrate the potential use of the proposed procedures in the hazard and risk assessment of geographically distributed structural systems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an “Average Recurrence Interval” of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date.  相似文献   

3.
GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and numerical cartography may greatly facilitate the development and use of statistical models for the assessment of regional landslide hazard. From a small drainage basin located in Central Italy, relevant geological and geomorphological factors were collected and processed by applying GIS technology. In particular, modules were used which both generate high-fidelity digital terrain models and automatically partition the terrain into main slope-units. The resulting information was then analysed by discriminant analysis which enabled landslide hazard and risk to be evaluated in each slope-unit. Although not lacking drawbacks, the method proved to be a feasible and cost-effective approach to landslide susceptibility assessment and mapping.  相似文献   

4.
Permanent fault displacements (PFDs) because of fault ruptures emerging at the surface are critical for seismic design and risk assessment of continuous pipelines. They impose significant compressive and tensile strains to the pipe cross‐section at pipe‐fault crossings. The complexity of fault rupture, inaccurate mapping of fault location and uncertainties in fault‐pipe crossing geometries require probabilistic approaches for assessing the PFD hazard and mitigating pipeline failure risk against PFD. However, the probabilistic approaches are currently waived in seismic design of pipelines. Bearing on these facts, this paper first assesses the probabilistic PFD hazard by using Monte Carlo‐based stochastic simulations whose theory and implementation are given in detail. The computed hazard is then used in the probabilistic risk assessment approach to calculate the failure probability of continuous pipelines under different PFD levels as well as pipe cross‐section properties. Our probabilistic pipeline risk computations consider uncertainties arising from complex fault rupture and geomorphology that result in inaccurate mapping of fault location and fault‐pipe crossings. The results presented in this paper suggest the re‐evaluation of design provisions in current pipeline design guidelines to reduce the seismic risk of these geographically distributed structural systems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
We study the parameters A, B, and C of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE) in the Central Mediterranean area and Alpine region on the basis of a variable space and time scale approach. We make use of regional and local earthquake catalogues. Accordingly, we investigate three different scales: the scale of the Central Mediterranean and Alpine region spanning different geological domains, the scale of the Alps focusing on a single geological entity, and the scale of an active fault system at the junction between the southeastern Alps and the external Dinarides in Northeastern Italy and Western Slovenia. Maps based on the varied time and location scales are compared with each other. The observed temporal variability of the A, B, C coefficients indicates significant changes of seismic activity at the time scales of a few decades. Therefore, it is highly recommended to use all the data available for long-term seismic hazard assessment in conjunction with a real-time monitoring of these characteristics for possible evaluation of time-dependent risk at the intermediate-term scales of a few years. The confirmed fractal nature of earthquakes and their distribution in space implies that the traditional estimations of seismic hazard for cities and urban agglomerations are usually underestimated. The degree of underestimation by traditional methods of seismic risk at a city is illustrated by providing estimates of hazard and related personal hazard, which are oversimplified examples of seismic risk assessment accounting for fractal properties of earthquakes in the major cities of the Central Mediterranean and Alpine region.  相似文献   

6.
Local site effect microzonation of Lorca town (SE Spain)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Local site effect assessment based on subsurface ground conditions is often the key to evaluate urban seismic hazard. The site effect evaluation in Lorca town (south-eastern Spain) started with a classification of urban geology through the geological mapping at scale 1:10,000 and the use of geotechnical data and geophysical surveys. The 17 geological formations identified were classified into 5 geological/seismic formations according to their seismic amplification capacity obtained from ambient vibration measurements as well as from simultaneous strong motion records. The shear-wave velocity structure of each geological/seismic formation was evaluated by means of inversion of Rayleigh wave dispersion data obtained from vertical-component array records of ambient noise. Nakamura’s method was applied to determine a predominant period distribution map. The spectral amplification factors were fourfold the values recorded in a reference hard-rock site. Finally, the capability of this study for explaining the damage distribution caused by the May 11th, 2011 Lorca destructive earthquake (Mw \(=\) 5.2) was examined. The methods used in this work are of assistance to evaluate ground amplification phenomena in urban areas of complex geology as Lorca town due to future earthquakes with applicability on urban seismic risk management.  相似文献   

7.
Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Recent earthquakes such as the MJMA 7.2 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake and the M 7.4 Kocaeli earthquake demonstrate once again the need to include detailed soil investigation into hazard evaluation, that is the need of microzonation. Seismic hazard assessment evaluated at a regional scale generally does not consider soil effects but only in a limited way using an attenuation law that can be ‘soft soil’ or ‘rock’. However, the relevant role of seismic hazard in the assessment of seismic coefficients for the definition of the actions in seismic codes must be properly considered. That is to say, the level of protection of buildings is proportional to a definite level of hazard (generally considered to be the ground motion with 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years). When a microzonation is performed, this criterion cannot be ignored, therefore, a clear linkage must be established between hazard (regional scale) and microzonation. The crucial point is represented by the reference motion (or input motion) to be used for site effects analysis, that must be compatible with the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, three different approaches for reference motion evaluation are analysed: probabilistic; stochastic; and deterministic. Through the case history of Fabriano microzonation the three approaches are compared. It is shown that each approach presents advantages and disadvantages with respect to the others. For example, the probabilistic approach (the reference motion is directly derived from the expected response spectra for a given return period) is linked with hazard, but produces an overestimation in short periods range, while the deterministic approach correctly simulates the wave propagation, but it ends with a kind of conditional probability. Until now, clear criteria to choose the right approach do not appear to exist and the expert experience is of fundamental importance.  相似文献   

9.
The cartography of erosion risk is mainly based on the development of models, which evaluate in a qualitative and quantitative manner the physical reproduction of the erosion processes (CORINE, EHU, INRA). These models are mainly semi‐quantitative but can be physically based and spatially distributed (the Pan‐European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment, PESERA). They are characterized by their simplicity and their applicability potential at large temporal and spatial scales. In developing our model SCALES (Spatialisation d'éChelle fine de l'ALéa Erosion des Sols/large‐scale assessment and mapping model of soil erosion hazard), we had in mind several objectives: (1) to map soil erosion at a regional scale with the guarantee of a large accuracy on the local level, (2) to envisage an applicability of the model in European oceanic areas, (3) to focus the erosion hazard estimation on the level of source areas (on‐site erosion), which are the agricultural parcels, (4) to take into account the weight of the temporality of agricultural practices (land‐use concept). Because of these objectives, the nature of variables, which characterize the erosion factors and because of its structure, SCALES differs from other models. Tested in Basse‐Normandie (Calvados 5500 km2) SCALES reveals a strong predisposition of the study area to the soil erosion which should require to be expressed in a wet year. Apart from an internal validation, we tried an intermediate one by comparing our results with those from INRA and PESERA. It appeared that these models under estimate medium erosion levels and differ in the spatial localization of areas with the highest erosion risks. SCALES underlines here the limitations in the use of pedo‐transfer functions and the interpolation of input data with a low resolution. One must not forget however that these models are mainly focused on an interregional comparative approach. Therefore the comparison of SCALES data with those of the INRA and PESERA models cannot result on a convincing validation of our model. For the moment the validation is based on the opinion of local experts, who agree with the qualitative indications delivered by our cartography. An external validation of SCALES is foreseen, which will be based on a thorough inventory of erosion signals in areas with different hazard levels. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Many research tools for lahar hazard assessment have proved wholly unsuitable for practical application to an active volcanic system where field measurements are challenging to obtain. Two simple routing models, with minimal data demands and implemented in a geographical information system (GIS), were applied to dilute lahars originating from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Single-direction flow routing by path of steepest descent, commonly used for simulating normal stream-flow, was tested against LAHARZ, an established lahar model calibrated for debris flows, for ability to replicate the main flow routes. Comparing the ways in which these models capture observed changes, and how the different modelled paths deviate can also provide an indication of where dilute lahars, do not follow behaviour expected from single-phase flow models. Data were collected over two field seasons and provide (1) an overview of gross morphological change after one rainy season, (2) details of dominant channels at the time of measurement, and (3) order of magnitude estimates of individual flow volumes. Modelling results suggested both GIS-based predictive tools had associated benefits. Dominant flow routes observed in the field were generally well-predicted using the hydrological approach with a consideration of elevation error, while LAHARZ was comparatively more successful at mapping lahar dispersion and was better suited to long-term hazard assessment. This research suggests that end-member models can have utility for first-order dilute lahar hazard mapping.  相似文献   

11.
The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.  相似文献   

12.
Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.  相似文献   

13.
Earthquake-resistant design and seismic analysis often require the earthquake action to be represented in the form of acceleration time-histories. Real accelerograms can be selected based on matching an earthquake scenario, defined by magnitude and distance, and scaled if necessary. The scaled accelerograms should reflect the hazard in terms of the parameters that characterise the inelastic demand on structures, including response spectral ordinates, duration and energy content. In order to maintain realistic ground motions, the scaling factors should not differ greatly from unity. It is found that in many cases, where the hazard is influenced by more than one seismic source, it is impossible to define a single earthquake scenario that is compatible with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Even if a hazard-consistent scenario can be defined, there are difficulties encountered in using the results to select and scale real accelerograms.  相似文献   

14.
The MS7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan Province of 8 August 2017 triggered a large number of landslides. A comprehensive and objective panorama of these landslides is of great significance for understanding the mechanism, intensity, spatial pattern and law of these coseismic landslides, recovery and reconstruction of earthquake affected area, as well as prevention and mitigation of landslide hazard. The main aim of this paper is to present the use of remote sensing images, GIS technology and Logistic Regression(LR)model for earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping related to the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. On the basis of a scene post-earthquake Geoeye-1 satellite image(0.5m resolution), we delineated 4834 co-seismic landslides with an area of 9.63km2. The ten factors were selected as the influencing factors for earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping of Jiuzhaigou earthquake, including elevation, slope angle, aspect, horizontal distance to fault, vertical distance to fault, distance to epicenter, distance to roads, distance to rivers, TPI index, and lithology. Both landsliding and non-landsliding samples were needed for LR model. Centroids of the 4834 initial landslide polygons were extracted for landslide samples and the 4832 non-landslide points were randomly selected from the landslide-free area. All samples(4834 landslide sites and 4832 non-landslide sites)were randomly divided into the training set(6767 samples)and validation set(2899 samples). The logistic regression model was used to carry out the landslide hazard assessment of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake and the results show that the landslide hazard assessment map based on LR model is very consistent with the actual landslide distribution. The areas of Wuhuahai-Xiamo, Huohuahai and Inter Continental Hotel of Jiuzhai-Ruyiba are high hazard areas. In order to quantitatively evaluate the prediction results, the trained model calculated with the training set was evaluated by training set and validation set as the input of the model to get the output results of the two sets. The ROC curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The ROC curve for LR model was drawn and the AUC values were calculated. The evaluation result shows good prediction accuracy. The AUC values for the training and validation data set are 0.91 and 0.89, respectively. On the whole, more than 78.5% of the landslides in the study area are concentrated in the high and extremely high hazard zones. Landslide point density and landslide area density increase very rapidly as the level of hazard increases. This paper provides a scientific reference for earthquake landslides, disaster prevention and mitigation in the earthquake area.  相似文献   

15.
 Volcanoes in humid tropical environments are frequently cloud covered, typically densely vegetated and rapidly eroded. These factors complicate field and laboratory studies and even the basic identification of potentially active volcanoes. Numerous previous studies have highlighted the potential value of radar remote sensing for volcanology in equatorial regions. Here, cloud- and vegetation-penetrating LHH-band (λ≈24 cm) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the Japanese Earth Resources Satellite (JERS-1) are used to investigate persistently active volcanoes and prehistoric calderas in East Java, Indonesia. The LHH-band JERS-1 SAR produces high-spatial-resolution (18 m) imagery with relatively high incidence angle that highlights structures and topographic variations at or greater than the wavelength scale while minimising geometrical distortions such as layover and foreshortening. These images, along with Internet browse data derived from the Canadian RADARSAT mission, provide new evidence relating regional tectonics to volcanism throughout East Java. Volcanic events, such as caldera collapse at the Tengger caldera, appear to have been partly controlled by northwest-aligned faults related to intra-arc sedimentary basins. Similar regional controls appear important at historically active Lamongan volcano, which is encircled by numerous flank maars and cinder cones. A previously undocumented pyroclastic sheet and debris avalanche deposit from the Jambangan caldera complex is also manifested in the synoptic radar images. At the currently active Semeru volcano these data permit identification of recent pyroclastic flow and lahar deposits. Radar data therefore offer a valuable tool for mapping and hazard assessment at late Quaternary volcanoes. The criteria developed in the analysis here could be applied to other regions in the humid tropics. Received: 25 June 1998 / Accepted: 20 January 1999  相似文献   

16.
This paper compares the seismic demands obtained from an intensity‐based assessment, as conventionally considered in seismic design guidelines, with the seismic demand hazard. Intensity‐based assessments utilize the distribution of seismic demand from ground motions that have a specific value of some conditioning intensity measure, and the mean of this distribution is conventionally used in design verification. The seismic demand hazard provides the rate of exceedance of various seismic demand values and is obtained by integrating the distribution of seismic demand at multiple intensity levels with the seismic hazard curve. The seismic demand hazard is a more robust metric for quantifying seismic performance, because seismic demands from an intensity‐based assessment: (i) are not unique, with different values obtained using different conditioning intensity measures; and (ii) do not consider the possibility that demand values could be exceeded from different intensity ground motions. Empirical results, for a bridge‐foundation‐soil system, illustrate that the mean seismic demand from an intensity‐based assessment almost always underestimates the demand hazard value for the exceedance rate considered, on average by 17% and with a large variability. Furthermore, modification factors based on approximate theory are found to be unreliable. Adopting the maximum of the mean values from multiple intensity‐based assessments, with different conditional intensity measures, provides a less biased prediction of the seismic demand hazard value, but with still a large variability, and a proportional increase the required number of analyses. For an equivalent number of analyses, direct computation of the seismic demand hazard is a more logical choice and provides additional performance insight. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
This paper investigates damping modification factors in eastern Canada based on historical and simulated records compatible with seismic hazard in this region. Damping modification factors are characterized as a function of magnitude, distance, site condition, and damping ratio. Damping modification factors corresponding to historical and simulated ground motions on rock sites are shown to exhibit the same trends for all damping levels. In addition to period dependency of damping modification factors, we demonstrate their sensitivity to magnitude variations at longer periods. The effect of distance is shown to be less pronounced. It is also observed that soil conditions affect damping modification factors at short as well as longer periods. Period-dependent equations are proposed for practical assessment of damping modification factors corresponding to damping ratios between 1 and 40%, considering different magnitude–distance combinations and soil conditions representative of seismic hazard in eastern Canada.  相似文献   

18.
 A desktop image processing and photogrammetric method was developed for digitizing black-and-white aerial photographs. The technique was applied to airborne optical images of Mt. Pelée, Martinique, a historically active volcano in the tropical Lesser Antilles island arc, to evaluate its utility for rapid geologic mapping and hazard assessment in vegetated areas. The digital approach provides several advantages over traditional air-photo interpretation by allowing for change detection in time-series images, morphologic characterization, development of digital elevation models from stereopairs, and geo-referencing with other digital data sets. A digital mosaic of Mt. Pelée was created from air photos acquired in 1951, which covered the region affected by the 1902 eruption. Severe mismatches occurred along edges of adjacent photographs prior to correction, which precluded quantitative morphologic analysis of the volcanic edifice. Geometric corrections and histogram equalization of digitized air photos allowed creation of a continuous mosaic. Comparison of the mosaic and a map based on differences in gray scale and texture to a volcanostratigraphic map revealed that not only the various deposits produced during the 1902 event were easily differentiated, but that older eruptive products were identified, suggesting that this approach may be used for rapid hazard evaluation of historically active tropical volcanoes. Received: 22 January 1996 / Accepted: 26 July 1996  相似文献   

19.
盘锦、海城、营口地区是辽宁省内地震活动性最强、地震危险性最高的地区。该地区开展了大量重点工程地震安全性评价、区域性地震区划和地震小区划工作，但尚未开展基于场地条件的区域尺度地震危险性研究。独有的沉积特点使该地区场地条件较复杂，因此在地震危险性概率分析中考虑场地条件是必要的。本文基于新一代中国地震动参数区划图基本原理和技术原则，结合盘锦、海城、营口地区场地条件特征，采用基于地形坡度的方法对场地条件进行分类，确定场地地震动影响系数，给出该地区基于区域场地条件的地震危险性分布，相关研究结果可为地震风险评估和防震减灾规划提供参考。  相似文献   

20.
A homogeneous and internally consistent body of regional magnitudes is needed not only for the statistical study of seismicity but also for the modelling of seismic sources and for the hazard assessment of engineering sites. Also the assessment of the design ground motions for engineering projects requires homogeneous magnitude estimates. The nature of the available data for U.K. and Northwestern European earthquakes, and of the events themselves, is such that we are concerned with the assessment of magnitudes at the lower end of the scale, and thus great importance focuses on the uniform calculation of magnitudes within a relatively narrow range of M values. The purpose of this study is to present the uniform re-assessment of magnitudes for British and Northwestern European earthquakes for the period 1900 to 1984. It is shown that, for the larger events, surface-wave magnitudes can be estimated uniformly and that neither a period constraint at 20 seconds nor distance effects for the regional conditions considered appear to play an important role. For smaller events, crustal phases at short distances have been used to derive calibration curves for a magnitude which, at larger distances and longer periods would fit the magnitude scale of surface waves.  相似文献   

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