共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 515 毫秒
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《山地学报》2017,(3)
边坡稳定性受诸多随机、模糊和不完整因素影响,其评价是一个复杂系统不确定性问题。云模型则是处理随机不确定性问题的有效工具,但传统云模型应用于实际边坡评价时,可能面临指标分布形式不符正态分布的要求,为克服此缺陷,在此基于联系数理论和云模型耦合方法,探讨了边坡稳定性非对称联系云评价模型,即基于边坡分类标准求解非对称联系云数字特征和生成联系云,结合指标权重和实测指标计算综合确定度,以判定边坡的稳定性等级。实例应用和与其他方法对比分析表明,该模型应用于边坡稳定性评价是有效可行的,取得了较好效果,且评价结果的转化态势能用确定度统一定量描述,更加符合边坡情况,为边坡稳定性评价提供了新的参考。 相似文献
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基于模糊理论、统计分析等数学理论,提出一种定量的综合国力模糊综合评价模型.首先对基本数据进行标准化处理和主成分分析,并建立综合国力评判集;其次,根据所选取的主成分及其贡献值建立评判对象因素集,并计算综合国力评判因素权向量;最后,利用综合国力评判集、评判因素权向量及评判对象因素集进行模糊综合评判,根据模糊综合评判模型对13个主要国家的综合国力进行了比较分析. 相似文献
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水资源承载能力的模糊综合评价研究 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
水资源承载力涉及到整个资源、经济、环境大系统,其是否协调是全球关注的重大问题.充分理解水资源承载力的概念,根据水资源承载力分析的结构特点,在传统多目标分析决策技术的基础上,分析了承载力评价的多级模糊综合评判方法,建立了水环境承载力多级模糊综合评判评价模型,并应用于四川省都江堰灌区水资源承载力评价.结果表明,提出的多级模糊综合评判由于综合考虑了评价因素的层次性和模糊性,其结果较一级模糊综合评判方法更符合实际. 相似文献
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边坡稳定性分析及评价是边坡治理的关键。本文分别对土质边坡和岩质边坡进行了变形主要影响因素及破坏模式分析、稳定性分析及评价。 相似文献
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为提高减少气候异常对国民经济影响对策措施的科学性、有效性和针对性,研究开发了对策集成评价模型.评价模型建立了由社会、经济、生态、环境、技术等方面要素组成的评价指标体系,开发了定量与定性相结合的经济效益、社会生态效果和不确定性分析评价方法,设计了客观评估和专家评判相结合的模糊层次综合评价矩阵,可对各种对策措施的投入-产出效益效果进行科学评估,并根据评价量值对对策措施的优劣作出评判. 相似文献
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城市实力综合评价方法初探 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
城市实力综合评价在城市规划，区域规划和社会经济发展规划中具有重要的意义。传统的评价方法往往只采用单一或几个指标进行评价，不能真正地反映城市综合实力指数。本文主要探讨了多指标综合评价城市实力的定量方法－得分法，因子分析法、模糊综合评判法和结构模型解析法，并运用得分法、因子分析法对山东省22个城市的实力进行了综合评价。 相似文献
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斜坡中发育的多种裂面在滑坡形成过程中将组合成多条变形带，随着变形的发展，变形逐渐向最大剪应力处集中，最终形成滑面。斜坡中多变形带稳定性模糊综合评判是采用数理统计的方法，将滑坡发育过程中影响变形带的因素作为不同的评判因子，对其进行模糊综合评判分析，然后确定最不稳定的变形带。文中最后以金龙山滑坡变形带的稳定性分析为例，证明该方法的正确性。 相似文献
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朱静 《云南地理环境研究》1995,7(1):48-57
本文划分出澜沧江中下游斜坡结构类型并分析了各斜坡类型的基本特征、变形机制和演化方式，阐述了斜坡变形破坏对该地区人类经济活动的影响，为评价预测澜沧江中下游斜坡稳定性奠定了基础。 相似文献
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滑坡稳定性判别的非计算方法 总被引：2，自引：6，他引：2
用计算来确定滑坡的稳定性，由于参数选取存不确定因素，就必然导致了其计算结果的不确定性。而滑坡稳定性判别的非计算方法，是通过对滑坡发育程度、形成条件的综合分析来确定滑坡的稳定程度的方法。文中通过归纳分析波坡的形成条件，然后从滑坡地貌条件、动力作用、堆积物特征、诱发因素等方面详细阐述了滑坡稳定性判别的方法，最后，例举了川藏公路102滑坡实例对该方法进行了验证。实践证明该方法是滑坡稳定性中非常实用和有效的方法。 相似文献
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从岩石力学系统运动稳定性的基本理论出发,将边坡力学系统的破坏分成五类,对其中的连续协调变形边坡的稳定性问题进行了描述,并分析了该系统的稳定性及其判据,找出了系统的控制变量是系统的广义刚度系数,同时对影响系统控制变量的因素进行了初探,指出影响边坡系统稳定性的控制变量主要是系统的几何结构因素和系统的力学参数性质,最后提出对系统控制变量进行人为的调控,达到调整系统、加强系统稳定性和防灾的目的． 相似文献
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Pece V. Gorsevski Paul E. Gessler Jan Boll William J. Elliot Randy B. Foltz 《Geomorphology》2006,80(3-4):178-198
Mapping of landslide susceptibility in forested watersheds is important for management decisions. In forested watersheds, especially in mountainous areas, the spatial distribution of relevant parameters for landslide prediction is often unavailable. This paper presents a GIS-based modeling approach that includes representation of the uncertainty and variability inherent in parameters. In this approach, grid-based tools are used to integrate the Soil Moisture Routing (SMR) model and infinite slope model with probabilistic analysis. The SMR model is a daily water balance model that simulates the hydrology of forested watersheds by combining climate data, a digital elevation model, soil, and land use data. The infinite slope model is used for slope stability analysis and determining the factor of safety for a slope. Monte Carlo simulation is used to incorporate the variability of input parameters and account for uncertainties associated with the evaluation of landslide susceptibility. This integrated approach of dynamic slope stability analysis was applied to the 72-km2 Pete King watershed located in the Clearwater National Forest in north-central Idaho, USA, where landslides have occurred. A 30-year simulation was performed beginning with the existing vegetation covers that represented the watershed during the landslide year. Comparison of the GIS-based approach with existing models (FSmet and SHALSTAB) showed better precision of landslides based on the ratio of correctly identified landslides to susceptible areas. Analysis of landslide susceptibility showed that (1) the proportion of susceptible and non-susceptible cells changes spatially and temporally, (2) changed cells were a function of effective precipitation and soil storage amount, and (3) cell stability increased over time especially for clear-cut areas as root strength increased and vegetation transitioned to regenerated forest. Our modeling results showed that landslide susceptibility is strongly influenced by natural processes and human activities in space and time; while results from simulated outputs show the potential for decision-making in effective forest planning by using various management scenarios and controlling factors that influence landslide susceptibility. Such a process-based tool could be used to deal with real-dynamic systems to help decision-makers to answer complex landslide susceptibility questions. 相似文献
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基于遥感与地理信息系统的分布式斜坡稳定性定量评估模型 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
文章介绍一种进行斜坡稳定性定量研究的分布式模型——SINMAP模型。该模型以水文学理论为基础,耦合稳定状态水文模型TOPMODEL与大范围斜坡稳定性模型,在充分考虑各种影响因素的基础上,对研究区域进行斜坡稳定性评价。选取汉江江口流域作为试验研究区,以DEM、遥感影象、各种专题图件及地面考察资料作为信息源,利用SINMAP方法获得可视化的研究区地表稳定性指数专题图。经实际资料检验表明,该模型可获取较高的预测精度,尤其在流域尺度上具有极大的应用价值。 相似文献
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This study presents scenario models for historical variations of climate and slope stability. A model for historical annual patterns of temperature and rainfall was established on the basis of seasonal proxies. A process-based, spatio-temporal model for groundwater variations and slope stability was developed using the GIS environment of the software PCRaster. We applied the slope stability model to study the effects of the different climate scenarios on slope stability for three different hillslopes in the area around Bonn (Germany). The findings indicate three climatic phases with different annual temperature and precipitation patterns over the historic period. The modeling results show that a climatic scenario representing unstable conditions of a transition from the more humid Little Ice Age to dryer recent climate produces the highest slope instabilities. The intensity of this impact, however, varies with the sensitivity of the geomorphic system, i.e. local landforms and lithology, and cannot be generally related to the stability of a specific hillslope. More unstable areas are not necessarily more sensitive to climatic changes: the location of permeable layers (prone to groundwater rise) in relation to sensitive layers (lower strength) and higher gradients (higher stress) influences the sensitivity of a site with respect to climate changes. The presented method is capable of modeling landscape sensitivity to climate change with respect to groundwater-controlled landslides. 相似文献
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对国道321线七宝莲边坡的气候、地质、地貌、水文等条件进行了综合分析，认为该边坡是潜伏着危险的不稳定边坡，其中地质构造、岩体结构、地表水和地下水作用是边坡变表破坏的主要影响因素，建议采用预应力框架挡土墙对边坡进行加固的防护措施。 相似文献
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Landslide stability analysis increasingly utilises high-resolution coupled hydrology–slope stability models (CHASM) to improve stability assessments in areas subject to dynamic pore pressure regimes. In such environments, the estimation of soil hydraulic conductivity (K) is a key parameter but one which is not always readily available or determined with the required resolution. By using basic soil particle-size distribution (PSD) data, we evaluate the microscopic composition of the actual soil, and applying the analytical relations obtain by a Self-Consistent Method (SCM) approach, we determine an appropriate value of K. This is of importance in that it allows within-soil type variability to be reflected in terms of K and hence within the model structure. The SCM methodology is briefly reviewed and an illustrative application is undertaken for a slope typical of Hong Kong. The results show model output sensitivity in terms of moisture content and factor of safety (FOS) when comparing K values determined using the SCM approach and the conventional field determination. In attempting to determine slope hydrological processes and attendant stability conditions, we conclude that the application of SCM approach offers a novel methodology for potentially improving the parameterisation of hydrology–slope stability models. 相似文献