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1.
流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析是理解气候变化对流域水资源影响的重要手段。本文利用非更新式人工神经网络(ANN)模型,以年平均降雨、年最低气温和最高气温为输入参数,年平均径流量为输出变量,构建了三江平原挠力河流域的径流量预测ANN模型;并根据IPCC第四次报告的气候变化模式,设定了9种不同的气候变化情景,利用构建的ANN模型分析了流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:构建的人工神经网络模型能够较好的模拟径流量,可用于气候变化的敏感性分析;挠力河流域上游径流量对气候变化的敏感性要大于中游区域的,降水变化对径流量的影响大于气温对其产生的影响。 相似文献
2.
China’s dryland region has serious wind erosion problem and is sensitive to climate change due to its fragile ecological condition. Wind erosion climatic erosivity is a measure of climatic factors influencing wind erosion, therefore, evaluation of its intensity and response to recent climate changes can contribute to the understanding of climate change effect on wind erosion risk. Using the FAO equation, GIS and statistical analysis tools, this study quantified the climatic erosivity, analyzed its spatiotemporal variations, and detected the trend and sensitivity to climate factors during 1961–2012. The results indicate that mean annual climatic erosivity was 2–166 at 292 stations and 237–471 at 6 stations, with the spatial distribution highly in accordance with wind speed (R2 = 0.94). The climatic erosivity varied greatly over time with the annual variation (CV) of 14.7%–108.9% and monthly variation (concentration degree) of 0.10–0.71 in the region. Meanwhile, annual erosivity showed a significant downward trend at an annual decreasing rate mostly above 1.0%. This significantly decreasing trend was mainly attributed to the obvious decline of wind speed during the period. The results suggest that the recent climate changes were highly possible to induce a decrease of wind erosion risk in China’s dryland region. 相似文献
3.
近50年安徽省气候年景评估方法 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用安徽省1961～2010年气象观测资料和气象灾情资料,依据极端气候事件及主要气象灾害评估技术规范和相关标准,挑选主要气候事件及气象灾害评估指标。应用主成分分析方法确定各指标权重,通过综合加权分别构建年干旱、雨涝、低温冷冻害、高温、风雹及雾霾等气候异常指数评估模型和灾损模型。在此基础上,利用灰色关联方法构建气候年景模型,反演近50a安徽省年景指数序列,参照世界气象组织推荐的百分位数法划分气候年景等级阈值,分别取0～10%,10%～30%,30%～70%,70%～90%,90%～100%为好、较好、一般、较差和差气候年景。近50a来,1965年、1973年、1975年、1993年和1997年为好气候年景;1966年、1969年、1991年、1996年和1998年气候年景差。通过综合灾损模型以及相关气象灾害文献资料验证表明,气候年景评估方法和等级标准可以较好地反映年度气候的真实状况,可为省、市、县级区域的气候年景评估提供科技支撑。 相似文献
4.
雪岭云杉树轮宽度对气候变化的响应 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
利用新疆伊犁地区雪岭云杉的6个树轮宽度年表 ,通过相关分析的方法,分析不同地形条件下雪岭云杉树轮宽度对于气候要素的响应。统计分析表明,雪岭云杉对气候变化比较敏感,在北天山南坡的森林下限,雪岭云杉生长与生长季7~8月降水关系显著;在南天山北坡的森林下限,雪岭云杉生长对生长季前11-次年1月最低温度存在显著正相关。地形对雪岭云杉与气候要素之间的关系影响较大,在南天山北坡,由于森林上下限树木抗寒性的差异,森林下限树木生长对温度的响应强于上限树木;南北坡引起的降水量水平的差异,使得天山不同坡向的树木生长响应不同的气候要素。 相似文献
5.
C. Sancho A. MuñozP. González-Sampériz M. Cinta Osácar 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(8):742-751
This work presents a palaeoenvironmental interpretation of the Upper Pleistocene-Holocene sedimentary sequence recorded in the Valsalada saline wetland system (Monegros, Central Ebro Basin). This morphosedimentary system developed on karstified, gypsiferous bedrock and was mainly fed by local saline groundwater. Based on geomorphological, sedimentological, palynological and radiocarbon data, three depositional units have been differentiated: 1) a lacustrine unit, which accumulated under cold/cool and humid environmental conditions at 41-40 kyr cal BP, 2) a fluvial unit that was deposited under arid climatic conditions with cold episodic periods from 14 to 3.5 kyr cal BP, and 3) an alluvial slope unit associated with arid climate with human influence during the Late Roman Period (1.5 kyr cal BP). The morphosedimentary evolution of the Valsalada system is strongly influenced by the geomorphic setting (small catchment with karstic depressions and low gradient slopes on gypsum), the hydrological availability (runoff and groundwater discharges) related to climate variability during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene, and the human activities developed in the area during historical times. The response of the Valsalada system displays a low sensitivity to short-term climatic changes but responds to major long-term climatic conditions, improving the regional paleoenvironmental picture of the Late Quaternary in NE Spain. 相似文献
6.
三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
利用水循环模型、统计检测、对比分析等手段对三江源区水循环过程进行了分析,模拟和检测了1958-2005 年黄河源区出口唐乃亥站、长江源区直门达站、澜沧江源区昌都站汛期、非汛期和年径流过程的变化趋势。在此基础上,检测CSIRO和NCAR两种气候模式A1B和B1 排放情景下未来2010-2039 年源区出口断面的径流演变趋势,对比分析了气候变化的影响。研究表明过去48 年三江源区出口唐乃亥站年径流和非汛期径流过程呈显著减少趋势,而直门达和昌都站径流过程变化趋势并不显著。这将导致对黄河中下游地区的水资源补给显著减少,加剧黄河流域水资源短缺。气候变化背景下,未来30 年黄河源区径流量与现状相比有所减少,尤其是在非汛期,将持续加剧黄河中下游流域水资源短缺的现象。长江源区径流量将呈增加趋势,而且远远高于现状流量,尤其是在汛期,长江中下游地区防洪形势严峻。而澜沧江源区未来30 年径流量均高于现状流量,但汛期和年径流变化并不显著,而非汛期径流变化存在不确定性,CSIRO模式B1 情景显著减小,而NCAR模式B1 情景显著增加。气候变化对长江源区径流影响最显著,黄河源区其次,而澜沧江源区最小。 相似文献
7.
Climate response and radial growth of Pinus tabulaeformis at different altitudes in Qilian Mountains
In order to test whether the relationship between climate and the radial growth of trees is affected by altitude, altitude variability and time stability of climate-influenced radial growth of a dominant conifer, Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis), in the eastern Qilian Mountains were studied against the background of climate change using dendrochronology. Results show that 1) droughts at the end of the growing season of last year and during the early and middle growing season of the current year were the main limiting factors for the radial growth of Chinese pine at two altitude gradients; this was determined by analyzing the relationship between tree-ring width chronologies and climate factors. 2) The sensitivity of the radial growth of trees to climate change gradually decreased and was affected more by drought stress at a lower altitude. 3) An unstable divergence response was observed in the radial growth at the two altitudes, in response to controlling climatic factors; this observation was based on the moving correlation analysis of growth/climate relationships, and the aggravation of drought stress caused by increasing temperature was the main reason. 4) The growth rate of Chinese pine at the two altitudes increased at first and then decreased, as measured by basal area increment (BAI) modeling. Future temperature rises may have significant effects on mountain forest ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. Effective management and protection measures should be taken, according to the response patterns of trees to climate change at different altitude gradients. 相似文献
8.
Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi- ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini- mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen- erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten- tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta- neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary. 相似文献
9.
Tan Ming Qin Xiaoguang Liu Tungsheng Laboratory of Speleothem Paleoclimatology Institute of Geology CAS Beijing People’s Republic of China 《地理学报(英文版)》1997,(3)
Ｉ.ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｔａｌａｇｍｉｔｅｓｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎａｐｐｌｉｅｄｔｏｕｓｅａｓｈｉｇｈｒｅｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｐａｌｅｏｃｌｉｍａｔｉｃｉｎｄｉｃａｔｏｒｓｓｉｎｃｅｔｈｅａｎｎｕａｌｇｒｏｗｔｈｂａｎｄｉｎｇｗａｓｒｅｃｏｇｎｉｚｅｄｉｎｓｔａｌａｇｍｉｔｅｓ[1,2].Ａｎｎｕａｌｇｒｏｗｔｈｂａｎｄｉｎｇｃａｎｂｅｍａｎｉｆｅｓｔｅｄｉｎｓｅｖｅｒａｌｍａｎｎｅｒｓｄｅｆｉｎｅｄｂｙ1)ａｌｔｅｒｎａｔｉｎｇｆｌｕｏｒｅｓｃｅｎｔａｎｄｎｏｎ-ｆｌｕｏｒｅｓｃｅｎｔｃａｌｃｉｔｅ[3,4];2)… 相似文献
10.
This paper assesses the various factors contributing to climate change in the region of the Kashafroud G-WADI Basin in Iran; quantifies
the local impacts of climate change, especially local water scarcity; and simulates and discusses several proposed methods to
combat these impacts. Hydrologic and climatic data are statistically analyzed and VENSIM modeling is used for various simulations
of water resources in the basin. Results show that the natural climate changes affecting Kashafroud Basin include increased temperature,
less rainfall, more frequent droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns, all of which are local symptoms of climate change in recent
years. However, the most important challenge in the basin is the overexploitation of surface and groundwater resources to meet the
growing water demands, especially domestic needs. Changes in land use, reallocation of water uses, groundwater depletion, and degradation
of the quality of surface waters have all contributed to significant changes in the environmental features of this basin, and are
the main reason why water demands now exceed the renewal capacity of the basin. Proposed response measures include reallocation
of resources among different uses, inter-basin water transfers, drawing water from six small dams on the Kashafroud River, reducing
groundwater extraction, and replacing groundwater extraction for agriculture by reuse of urban wastewater. This study concludes that
although changes in global climatic parameters have altered environmental features in the basin, local factors, such as water utilization
beyond the renewable capacity of the basin, are more significant in worsening the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
11.
三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应(英文) 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Runoff at the three time scales(non-flooding season,flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai(Yellow River Source Region:YeSR),Zhimenda(Yangtze River Source Region:YaSR) and Changdu(Lancang River Source Region:LcSR) by hydrological modeling,trend detection and comparative analysis.Also,future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested.The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR,which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River,and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin,but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years.Compared with the runoff in baseline(1990s),the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years(2010-2039),especially in the non-flooding season.Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously.The runoff in YaSR would increase,especially in the flooding season,thus the flood control situation would be severe.The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff,and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly,while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain.It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model.Furthermore,the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR,followed by YeSR and LcSR. 相似文献
12.
Observational data on the response of lakes during modern-day periods of abundant precipitation and drought may provide analogs
for Holocene stratigraphic records and help elucidate the mechanisms that influence how lakes integrate climate. This study
evaluated the impacts of climatic variation during the past 50 years on the morphometry and salinity of two neighboring lake
systems in the central U.S. The two lakes were chosen, because paleolimnological reconstructions indicated that they had opposing
geochemical responses to climate change at AD1200. This divergence suggested that local differences in hydrological setting
had a major impact on the lake response to climate variation. Changes in surface area and volume were derived from aerial
photographs and historic measurements of lake conductivity to contemporaneous annual precipitation data, the Palmer Drought
Severity Index, and to groundwater table elevation. Hypsographic curves help to illustrate changes in lake surface area to
depth. Both lakes showed predictable changes in surface area, volume, and salinity in response to precipitation change, but
the magnitude of change in surface area and volume varied between the two lakes, likely because of differences in basin morphometry,
but mechanisms remain speculative. These differences in basin size and shape also affected the salinity response over time.
In the modern systems, the influence of groundwater on the chemical budgets appears to be limited and does not clarify the
differential response of the lakes in the past. Yet, in the past the groundwater connection may have been different in turn
changing the way the basins responded to climate. Although this study furthers our understanding of differences in the impacts
of climate variations on Moon and Coldwater Lakes during recent times, it still does not clearly reveal why Moon and Coldwater
Lake show opposite patterns of salinity change at 1200 A.D. 相似文献
13.
Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi-ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini-mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen-erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten-tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta-neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary. 相似文献
14.
东北地区未来气候变化对农业气候资源的影响 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
为探求未来气候变化对东北地区农业气候资源的影响,本文基于区域气候模式系统输出的东北地区IPCC AR5提出的低辐射和高辐射强迫RCP_4.5（低排放）、RCP_8.5（高排放）情景下2005-2099年气象资料,通过与东北地区1961-2010年91个气象站点观测资料同化,分析了历史资料（Baseline）、RCP_4.5、RCP_8.5情景下东北地区农业热量资源和降水资源空间分布及其变化趋势。结果表明：① 年均温度空间分布自南向北降低,未来各地区温度均有升高,RCP_8.5情景下升温更明显,Baseline情景年均温度为7.70 ℃,RCP_4.5和RCP_8.5年均温度分别为9.67 ℃、10.66 ℃;其他农业热量资源随温度变化一致,具体≥ 10 ℃初日提前3 d、4 d,初霜日推迟2 d、6 d,生长季日数延长4 d、10 d,积温增加400 ℃·d、700 ℃·d;水资源稍有增加,但不明显。② 历史增温速率为0.35 ℃/10a,未来增温速率最快为RCP_8.5情景0.48 ℃/10a,高于RCP_4.5的0.19 ℃/10a。21世纪后期,RCP_8.5增温趋势明显快于RCP_4.5,北部地区增温更加速。其他农业热量资源随温度变化趋势相一致,但具体空间分布有所不同。生长季降水总体呈增加趋势,但不显著,年际间变化较大;东部地区降水增加,西部减少。未来东北地区总体向暖湿方向发展,热量资源整体增加,但与降水的不匹配可能将会对农业生产造成不利的影响。 相似文献
15.
区域土地生产潜力对全球气候变化的响应评价——以中国北方农牧交错带中段为例 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
由于气候变化的不确定性,尤其由于区域对气候变化响应评价工作直接关系到区域气候变化对策的制定和区域发展,进行针对气候变化的响应研究比气候变化的影响评价研究更具现实意义。气候变化对区域土地利用会产生一系列的影响,这种影响作用下的区域的反应-相应的变化、必要的适应性调整和适应能力-即是对气候变化的响应。以敏感度和适应能力度量的脆弱性作为衡量区域对气候变化响应的指标,增强了不同研究工作的比较性,正在日益为有关学者接受,并在全球开始研究工作。本文对应用脆弱性理论进行区域气候变化响应研究做了有益的探索。选择气候变化的时间、空间变化明显的中国北方农牧业交错带的中段作为研究案例,分别对农牧业土地生产潜力相对气候变化的敏感度和区域对气候变化的适应能力进行了定量和半定量的计算与评价,从这两个方面给出脆弱性的表述作为对研究区域土地生产潜力对全球气候变化的响应评价。 相似文献
16.
17.
内蒙古浑善达克沙地近五千年内沙漠化过程的研究 总被引：16，自引：1，他引：16
本文通过对历史气候与地层剖面的综合分析,研究了浑善达克地区近5 000年内沙漠化的正、逆过程,提出该地区的沙漠化发展过程是一个以气候波动为主导作用的自然过程。 相似文献
18.
Dozens of references recognizing pediment landforms in widely varying lithologic, climatic, and tectonic settings suggest a ubiquity in pediment forming processes on mountain piedmonts worldwide. Previous modeling work illustrates the development of a unique range in arid/semiarid piedmont slope (< 0.2 or 11.3°) and regolith thickness (2–4 m) that defines pediments, despite varying the initial conditions and domain characteristics (initial regolith thickness, slope, distance from basin to crest, topographic perturbations, and boundary conditions) and process rates (fluvial sediment transport efficiency and weathering rates). This paper expands upon the sensitivity analysis through numerical simulation of pediment development in the presence of spatially varying rock type, various base level histories, various styles of sediment transport, and various rainfall rates to determine how pediment development might be restricted in certain environments. This work suggests that in landscapes characterized by soil and vegetation types that favor incisive fluvial sediment transport styles coupled with incisive base level conditions, pediment development will be disrupted by the roughening of sediment mantled surfaces, thereby creating spatial variability in topography, regolith thickness, and bedrock weathering rates. Base level incision rates that exceed the integrated sediment flux along a hillslope derived from upslope weathering and sediment transport on the order of 10− 3 m y− 1 restrict pediment development by fostering piedmont incision and/or wholesale removal (stripping) of regolith mantles prior to footslope pediment development. Simulations illustrate an insensitivity to alternating layers of sandstone and shale 3–15 m thick oriented in various geometric configurations (vertical, horizontal, and dip-slope) and generating different regolith hydrologic properties and exhibiting weathering rate variations up to 3-fold. Higher fluxes and residence times of subsurface groundwater in more humid environments, as well as dissolution-type weathering, lead to a thickening of regolith mantles on erosional piedmonts on the order of 101 m and an elimination of pediment morphology. An initial test of the model sensitivity analysis in arid/semiarid environments, for which field reconnaissance and detailed geomorphic mapping indicate the presence of pediments controlled by climatic conditions (soil hydrologic properties, vegetation characteristics, and bedrock weathering style) that are known and constant, supports our modeling results that pediments are more prevalent in hydrologically-open basins. 相似文献
19.
全球气候变化对黄河流域天然径流量影响的情景分析 总被引：23，自引：6，他引：23
本文从干旱指数蒸发率函数出发,以HadCM3 GCM对降水和温度的模拟结果为基础,在IPCC不同发展情景下,分析了未来近100年内黄河流域天然径流量的变化趋势。研究结果表明,在不同气候变化情景下,多年平均年径流量的变化随着区域的不同而有显著差异,其变化幅度在-48.0%203.0%之间。全球气候变化引起的多年平均天然径流量的变化从东向西逐渐减小。就黄河流域而言,20062035年、20362065年、20662095年A2情景下（人口快速增长、经济发展缓慢）多年平均天然径流量的变化量分别为5.0%、11.7%、8.1%,B2情景下（强调社会技术创新）相应的变化分别为7.2%、-3.1%、2.6%。 相似文献
20.
依据红河县气象站及保护区附近4个气象哨的气象观测资料,结合野外实地考察和访谈所得非常规资料,采用理论推算方法对保护区气候资源的时空变化特征进行系统分析.结果表明：保护区光、热、水资源的时空分布变化显著.随着海拔升高年均温、年日照时数、年积温逐渐下降,年降水量和年太阳总辐射量逐渐增多.一年中,光、热、水资源夏季最多,冬季最少,山地南坡较北坡多.针对热量和水分资源垂直分异特征将保护区划分为4个垂直气候带,可为保护区及附近社区自然资源的合理开发利用、保护和管理气候资源提供理论依据. 相似文献