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1.
Delineating geographic shifts in crop cultivation under future climate conditions provides information for land use and water management planning, and insights to meeting future demand. A suitability modeling approach was used to map the thermal niche of almond cultivation and phenological development across the Western United States (US) through the mid-21st century. The Central Valley of California remains thermally suitable for almond cultivation through the mid-21st century, and opportunities for expansion appear in the Willamette Valley of western Oregon, which is currently limited by insufficient heat accumulation. Modeled almond phenology shows a compression in reproductive development under future climate. By the mid-21st century, almond phenology in the Central Valley showed ~?2-week delay in chill accumulation and ~?1- and ~?2.5-week advance in the timing of bloom and harvest, respectively. Although other climatic and non-climatic restrictions to almond cultivation may exist, these results highlight opportunities for shifts in the geography of high-value cropping systems, which may influence growers’ long-term land use decisions, and shape regional water and agricultural industry discussions regarding climate change adaptation options.  相似文献   

2.
We use the geo-referenced June Agricultural Survey of the U.S. Department of Agriculture to match values of individual farms in California with a measure of water availability as mediated through irrigation districts, and degree days, a nonlinear transformation of temperature, controlling for other influences on value such as soil quality, to examine the potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture in California. Water availability strongly capitalizes into farmland values. The predicted decrease in water availability in the latest climate change scenarios downscaled to California can therefore be expected to have a significant negative impact on the value of farmland.  相似文献   

3.
In this study, the influence of land use change and irrigation in the California Central Valley is quantified using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupled with the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3). The simulations were forced with modern-day and presettlement land use types at 30-km spatial resolution for the period 1 October 1995 to 30 September 1996. This study shows that land use change has significantly altered the structure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that affects near-surface temperature. In contrast, many land-use change studies indicate that albedo and evapotranspiration variations are the key processes influencing climate at local-to-regional scales. Our modeling results show that modern-day daily maximum near-surface air temperature (Tmax) has decreased due to agricultural expansion since presettlement. This decrease is caused by weaker sensible heat flux resulting from the lower surface roughness lengths associated with modern-day crops. The lower roughness lengths in the Central Valley also result in stronger winds that lead to a higher PBL. The higher PBL produces stronger sensible heat flux, causing nighttime warming. In addition to land use change, cropland irrigation has also affected hydroclimate processes within the California Central Valley. We generated a 10-member MM5-CLM3 ensemble simulation, where each ensemble member was forced by a fixed volumetric soil water content (SWC) between 3% and 30%, at 3% intervals, over the irrigated areas during a spring?Csummer growing season, 1 March to 31 August 1996. The results show that irrigation lowers the modern-day cropland surface temperature. Daytime cooling is produced by irrigation-related evaporation enhancement. This increased evaporation also dominates the nighttime surface cooling process. Surface cooling and the resulting weaker sensible heat flux further lower the near-surface air temperature. Thus, irrigation strengthens the daytime near-surface air temperature reduction that is caused by land use change, and a similar temperature change is seen for observations over irrigated cropland. Based on our modeling results, the nighttime near-surface warming induced by land use change is alleviated by low-intensity irrigation (17%?<?SWC?<?19%), but such warming completely reverses to a cooling effect under high-intensity irrigation (SWC?>?19%). The land use changes discussed in this study are commonly observed in many regions of the world, and the physical processes identified here can be used to better understand temperature variations over other areas with similar land cover changes.  相似文献   

4.
Spatial models of present-day mountain permafrost probability were perturbed to examine potential climate change impacts. Mean annual air temperature (MAAT) changes were simulated by adjusting elevation in the models, and cloud cover changes were examined by altering the partitioning of direct beam and diffuse radiation within the calculation for potential incoming solar radiation (PISR). The effects of changes in MAAT on equilibrium permafrost distribution proved to be more important than those due to cloud cover. Under a ?2 K scenario (approximating Little Ice Age conditions), permafrost expanded into an additional 22?C43% of the study areas as zonal boundaries descended by 155?C290 m K???1. Under warming scenarios, permafrost probabilities progressively declined and zonal boundaries rose in elevation. A MAAT change of +5 K, caused two of the areas to become essentially permafrost-free. The absolute values of these predictions were affected up to ±10% when lapse rates were altered by ±1.5 K km???1 but patterns and trends were maintained. A higher proportion of diffuse radiation (greater cloud cover) produced increases in permafrost extent of only 2?C4% while decreases in the diffuse radiation fraction had an equal but opposite effect. Notwithstanding the small change in overall extent, permafrost probabilities on steep south-facing slopes were significantly impacted by the altered partitioning. Combined temperature and PISR partitioning scenarios produced essentially additive results, but the impact of changes in the latter declined as MAAT increased. The modelling illustrated that mountain permafrost in the discontinuous zone is sensitive spatially to long-term climate change and identified those areas where changes may already be underway following recent atmospheric warming.  相似文献   

5.
In this study, regional climate changes for seventy years (1980–2049) over East Asia and the Korean Peninsula are investigated using the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario via a high-resolution regional climate model, and the impact of global warming on extreme climate events over the study area is investigated. According to future climate predictions for East Asia, the annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.8°C and precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day?1 (2030–2049). The maximum wind intensity of tropical cyclones increases in the high wind categories, and the intra-seasonal variation of tropical cyclone occurrence changes in the western North Pacific. The predicted increase in surface air temperature results from increased longwave radiations at the surface. The predicted decrease in precipitation is caused primarily by northward shift of the monsoon rain-band due to the intensified subtropical high. In the nested higher-resolution (20 km) simulation over the Korean Peninsula, annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C and annual mean precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day?1. Future surface air temperature over the Korean Peninsula increases in all seasons due to surface temperature warming, which leads to changes in the length of the four seasons. Future total precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is decreased, but the intensity and occurrence of heavy precipitation events increases. The regional climate changes information from this study can be used as a fruitful reference in climate change studies over East Asia and the Korean peninsula.  相似文献   

6.
The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO2 concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO2 concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.  相似文献   

7.
The applicability is analyzed of the modeling system consisting of the MGO regional climate model and multilevel atmospheric boundary layer model for the mesoscale climate change evaluation in the regions with irrigated land use. Based on these models, the Aral Sea evolution impact on the spatial distribution of temperature and humidity in the vicinity of irrigated land is assessed. Numerical experiments cover climate evolution during 1979–2011. It is shown that in the middle of the 20th century the Aral Sea impact was manifested in the temperature and humidity distributions up to the altitude of 200–300 m at the distance of about 40 km off the seashore. The effect of advection on the calculated values of evapotranspiration in irrigated areas located at different distances from the sea is also investigated. Different methods for the determination of evapotranspiration over the irrigated cotton fields are intercompared. The influence of different resolution of surface temperature distribution on total evapotranspiration estimates is analyzed.  相似文献   

8.
Freshwater discharge is one main element of the hydrological cycle that physically and biogeochemically connects the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean and directly responds to changes in pCO2. Nevertheless, while the effect of near-future global warming on total river runoff has been intensively studied, little attention has been given to longer-term impacts and thresholds of increasing pCO2 on changes in the partitioning of surface and subsurface flow paths across broad climate zones. These flow paths and their regional responses have a significant role for vegetation, soils, and nutrient leaching and transport. We present climate simulations for modern, near-future (850?ppm), far-future (1880?ppm), and past Late Cretaceous (1880?ppm) pCO2 levels. The results show large zonal mean differences and the displacement of flows from the surface to the subsurface depending on the respective pCO2 level. At modern levels the ratio of deeper subsurface to near-surface flows for tropical and high northern latitudes is 1:4.0 and 1:0.5, respectively, reflecting the contrast between permeable tropical soils and the areas of frozen ground in high latitudes. There is a trend toward increased total flow in both climate zones at 850?ppm, modeled to be increases in the total flow of 34 and 51%, respectively, with both zones also showing modest increases in the proportion of subsurface flow. Beyond 850?ppm the simulations show a distinct divergence of hydrological trends between mid- to high northern latitudes and tropical zones. While total wetting reverses in the tropics beyond 850?ppm due to reduced precipitation, with average zonal total runoff decreasing by 46% compared to the 850?ppm simulation, the high northern latitude zone becomes slightly wetter with the average zonal total runoff increasing by a further 3%. The ratio of subsurface to surface flows in the tropics remains at a level similar to the present day, but in the high northern latitude zone the ratio increases significantly to 1:1.6 due to the loss of frozen ground. The results for the high pCO2 simulations with the same uniform soil and vegetation cover as the Cretaceous are comparable to the results for the Cretaceous simulation, with higher fractions of subsurface flow of 1:5.4 and 1:5.6, respectively for the tropics, and 1:2.2 and 1:1.6, respectively for the high northern latitudes. We suggest that these fundamental similarities between our far future and Late Cretaceous models provide a framework of possible analogous consequences for (far-) future climate change, within which the integrated human impact over the next centuries could be assessed. The results from this modeling study are consistent with climate information from the sedimentary record which highlights the crucial role of terrestrial-marine interactions during past climate change. This study points to profound consequences for soil biogeochemical cycling, with different latitudinal expressions, passing of climate thresholds at elevated pCO2 levels, and enhanced export of nutrients to the ocean at higher pCO2.  相似文献   

9.
Black carbon concentration and weather data were online monitored continuously from March 2008 to February 2009 at the Akedala regional atmosphere station in the arid region of Central Asia. We present the daily, monthly and seasonal variations of BC concentration in the atmosphere and discuss the possible emission sources. Black carbon concentration in this region varies in the range of 43.7–1,559.2?ng/m3. A remarkable seasonal variation of BC in the aerosol was observed in the order of winter?>?spring?>?autumn?>?summer. The peak value of BC appeared at 10:00–13:00 while the lowest one at 7:00–9:00 each day. Air masses backward trajectories show the potential emission sources in the northwest from spring to autumn. Through back trajectory also revealed that BC in winter might be attributed to the emission from the anthropogenic activities, including domestic heating, cooking, combustion of oil and natural gas, and the medium-range transport from those cities in northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and Siberia. Some BC aerosols from the arid region of Central Asia were transported to the Pacific Ocean by the Westerlies.  相似文献   

10.
We present evidence of climate change impact upon recent changes of glaciers within Lombardy region, in Northern Italy. We illustrate the recent area evolution of a set of 249 glaciers in the area using three surface area records for 1991, 1999 and 2003. The 1999 and 2003 surface area data are processed by combining glacier limits manually digitized upon registered color orthophotos and differential GPS (DGPS) glaciers’ surveys. Glaciers’ area was 117.4?km2 in 1991, 104.7?km2 in 1999, and to 92.4?km2 2003, with a 21% reduction. Glaciers smaller than 1?km2 accounted for 53% of the total loss in area (13.1?km2 during 1991–2003). The area change rate was higher lately, with ca. 11.7 % reduction during 1999–2003. We split Alps and fore Alps of Lombardy into six mountain groups, and we separately investigate relative area variations. We use climate series from local stations within each group to assess climate change during a 30-year window (1976–2005). We focus upon temperature and snow cover depth at thaw, known to impact glaciers’ changes. We compare local year-round temperature anomalies against global ones to evidence enhanced warming within this area, and we investigate the correlation of our target climate variables against NAO. Eventually, we highlight the link between the rate of change of our climate variables to the observed scaling of area loss against glaciers’ size, showing that in rapidly warming areas glaciers’ size affects less relative melting.  相似文献   

11.
Summary The energy and water cycle over the Tibetan Plateau play an important role in the Asian monsoon system, which in turn is a major component of both the energy and water cycles of the global climate system. Using field observational data observed from the GAME/Tibet (GEWEX (Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment) Asian Monsoon Experiment on the Tibetan Plateau) and the CAMP/Tibet (CEOP (Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period) Asia-Australia Monsoon Project (CAMP) on the Tibetan Plateau), some results on the local surface energy partitioning (diurnal variation, inter-monthly variation and vertical variation etc.) are presented in this study.The study on the regional surface energy partitioning is of paramount importance over heterogeneous landscape of the Tibetan Plateau and it is also one of the main scientific objectives of the GAME/Tibet and the CAMP/Tibet. Therefore, the regional distributions and their inter-monthly variations of surface heat fluxes (net radiation flux, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux) are also derived by combining NOAA-14/AVHRR data with field observations. The derived results were validated by using the ground truth, and it shows that the derived regional distributions and their inter-monthly variations of land surface heat fluxes are reasonable by using the method proposed in this study. Further improvement of the method and its applying field were also discussed.  相似文献   

12.
There is not much information in the literature about the energy partitioning and micrometeorological features of sunn hemp. Therefore, in this study, the variations in the energy-balance components and plant characteristics such as aerodynamic and surface conductance, crop coefficient, albedo, short- and long wave down- and upward radiation have been measured and estimated for the time period from August to October 2004 over an irrigated sand field at the Arid Land Research Center in Tottori, Japan. The Bowen ratio energy-balance method was used to calculate the partitioning of heat fluxes of sunn hemp. The Bowen ratio values at the first growing stages in August were found to be higher than the Bowen ratio values at the latest growing stages in September and October because of the heavy rain and high soil-water content. The daytime averaged Bowen ratio was 0.19. During the measurement period, the daytime average net radiation, and soil, latent and sensible heat fluxes were approximately 231, 28, 164, and 39 W m–2, respectively. The net radiation and soil heat flux showed decreasing trends from the beginning to the end of the experiment period due to the atmospheric and crop growth conditions. The daytime averages of aerodynamic and surface conductance for sunn hemp were around 31 and 17 mm s–1, respectively. Also, the daytime average albedo of sunn hemp was around 19%. Finally, the high precipitation amount due to typhoons, high soil-water content, low available energy and low vapor-pressure deficit lead to decreasing trend of the energy fluxes during the generative phase of sunn hemp.  相似文献   

13.
Climate is an important resource for many types of tourism. One of several metrics for the suitability of climate for sightseeing is Mieczkowski’s “Tourism Climatic Index” (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. By means of the TCI, we analyse the present climate resources for tourism in Europe and projected changes under future climate change. We use daily data from five regional climate models and compare the reference period 1961–1990 to the A2 scenario in 2071–2100. A comparison of the TCI based on reanalysis data and model simulations for the reference period shows that current regional climate models capture the important climatic patterns. Currently, climate resources are best in Southern Europe and deteriorate with increasing latitude and altitude. With climate change the latitudinal band of favourable climate is projected to shift northward improving climate resources in Northern and Central Europe in most seasons. Southern Europe’s suitability for sightseeing tourism drops strikingly in the summer holiday months but is partially compensated by considerable improvements between October and April.  相似文献   

14.
Richard VanCuren 《Climatic change》2012,112(3-4):1071-1083
Exploiting surface albedo change has been proposed as a form of geoengineering to reduce the heating effect of anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Recent modeling experiments have projected significant negative radiative forcing from large-scale implementation of albedo reduction technologies (“cool” roofs and pavements). This paper complements such model studies with measurement-based calculations of the direct radiation balance impacts of replacement of conventional roofing with “cool” roof materials in California. This analysis uses, as a case study, the required changes to commercial buildings embodied in California’s building energy efficiency regulations, representing a total of 4300 ha of roof area distributed over 16 climate zones. The estimated statewide mean radiative forcing per 0.01 increase in albedo (here labeled RF01) is ?1.38 W/m2. The resulting unit-roof-area mean annual radiative forcing impact of this regulation is ?44.2 W/m2. This forcing is computed to counteract the positive radiative forcing of ambient atmospheric CO2 at a rate of about 41 kg for each square meter of roof. Aggregated over the 4300 ha of cool roof estimated built in the first decade after adoption of the State regulation, this is comparable to removing about 1.76 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 from the atmosphere. The point radiation data used in this study also provide perspective on the spatial variability of cool roof radiative forcing in California, with individual climate zone effectiveness ranging from ?37 to ?59 W/m2 of roof. These “bottom-up” calculations validate the estimates reported for published “top down” modeling, highlight the large spatial diversity of the effects of albedo change within even a limited geographical area, and offer a potential methodology for regulatory agencies to account for the climate effects of “cool” roofing in addition to its well-known energy efficiency benefits.  相似文献   

15.
The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth’s climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO2 forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m?2 K?1 (0.60 W m?2 K?1) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m?2 K?1 and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m?2 K?1; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m?2 K?1, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight the fundamental importance of the global water cycle to Earth’s climate sensitivity.  相似文献   

16.
A Regional Climate Chemistry Modeling System that employed empirical parameterizations of aerosol-cloud microphysics was applied to investigate the spatial distribution, radiative forcing (RF), and climate effects of black carbon (BC) over China. Results showed high levels of BC in Southwest, Central, and East China, with maximum surface concentrations, column burden, and optical depth (AOD) up to 14 μg?m?3, 8 mg?m?2, and 0.11, respectively. Black carbon was found to result in a positive RF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to its direct effect while a negative RF due to its indirect effect. The regional-averaged direct and indirect RF of BC in China was about +0.81 and ?0.95 W?m?2, respectively, leading to a net RF of ?0.15 W?m?2 at the TOA. The BC indirect RF was larger than its direct RF in South China. Due to BC absorption of solar radiation, cloudiness was decreased by 1.33 %, further resulting in an increase of solar radiation and subsequently a surface warming over most parts of China, which was opposite to BC’s indirect effect. Further, the net effect of BC might cause a decrease of precipitation of ?7.39 % over China. Investigations also suggested large uncertainties and non-linearity in BC’s indirect effect on regional climate. Results suggested that: (a) changes in cloud cover might be more affected by BC’s direct effect, while changes in surface air temperature and precipitation might be influenced by BC’s indirect effect; and (b) BC second indirect effect might have more influence on cloud cover and water content compared to first indirect effect. This study highlighted a substantial role of BC on regional climate changes.  相似文献   

17.
The exact relationship between people’s climate change attitudes and behaviour is a topic that engages policy-makers and researchers worldwide. Do climate change attitudes influence behaviour or is it possible that behaviour can change attitudes? This study uses a unique repeated survey dataset of 275 farmers (irrigators) in the southern Murray-Darling Basin from 2010–11 to 2015–16, to explore the dynamic relationship between climate change risk perceptions and farm adaptation behaviour. Farmers who had an increased risk exposure (expressed through higher debt, larger irrigated areas, greater share of permanent crops, and located in areas with higher temperatures and less rainfall) were more likely to agree climate change posed a risk. Whilst farmers became more accepting towards climate change over the time-period, a significant percentage of these attitudes were unstable. One reason suggested for this instability is the presence of a feedback loop between risk perceptions and behaviour. Namely, new evidence was found that farmers who agreed climate change was a risk in 2010–11, were more likely to undertake farm production decisions to reduce that risk (e.g. changing crop mix, reducing irrigated area and consequently selling water entitlements) – which had the impact of negatively feeding back and reducing their stated climate change risk perceptions in 2015–16. Conversely, farmers who were originally deniers were more likely to undertake somewhat riskier farm production decisions (e.g. increasing water utilisation rates and irrigation areas) – which consequently had the impact of positively increasing their climate change risk perceptions in 2015–16.  相似文献   

18.
Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.  相似文献   

19.
The Yangtze River Delta Economic Belt is one of the most active and developed areas in China and has experienced quick urbanization with fast economic development. The weather research and forecasting model (WRF), with a single-layer urban canopy parameterization scheme, is used to simulate the influence of urbanization on climate at local and regional scales in this area. The months January and July, over a 5-year period (2003–2007), were selected to represent the winter and summer climate. Two simulation scenarios were designed to investigate the impacts of urbanization: (1) no urban areas and (2) urban land cover determined by MODIS satellite observations in 2005. Simulated near-surface temperature, wind speed and specific humidity agree well with the corresponding measurements. By comparing the simulations of the two scenarios, differences in near-surface temperature, wind speed and precipitation were quantified. The conversion of rural land (mostly irrigation cropland) to urban land cover results in significant changes to near-surface temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation. The mean near-surface temperature in urbanized areas increases on average by 0.45?±?0.43°C in winter and 1.9?±?0.55°C in summer; the diurnal temperature range in urbanized areas decreases on average by 0.13?±?0.73°C in winter and 0.55?±?0.84°C in summer. Precipitation increases about 15% over urban or leeward areas in summer and changes slightly in winter. The urbanization impact in summer is stronger and covers a larger area than that in winter due to the regional east-Asian monsoon climate characterized by warm, wet summers and cool, dry winters.  相似文献   

20.
Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.  相似文献   

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