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1.
The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. This constitutes a new framework in which the AMOC response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. The main mechanisms responsible for the AMOC variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. At high frequencies, the AMOC is directly responding to local changes in the Ekman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. At low frequencies, the AMOC is largely controlled by convection activity south of Greenland. Again, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. Positive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1?year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive NAO-like pattern. Finally, the sensitivity of the AMOC to three different forcing factors is investigated. The major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. Starting in the Industrial Era and continuing in the future scenarios, the AMOC experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. Also, a weak but significant AMOC strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. In contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the AMOC is observed. Indeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the Nordic Seas, with a marginal contribution to the AMOC variability in the ECHO-G runs.  相似文献   

2.
A wide range of statistical tools is used to investigate the decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated key variables in a climate model (CHIME, Coupled Hadley-Isopycnic Model Experiment), which features a novel ocean component. CHIME is as similar as possible to the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) with the important exception that its ocean component is based on a hybrid vertical coordinate. Power spectral analysis reveals enhanced AMOC variability for periods in the range 15–30 years. Strong AMOC conditions are associated with: (1) a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly pattern reminiscent of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) response, but associated with variations in a northern tropical-subtropical gradient; (2) a Surface Air Temperature anomaly pattern closely linked to SST; (3) a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern; (4) a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The primary mode of AMOC variability is associated with decadal changes in the Labrador Sea and the Greenland Iceland Norwegian (GIN) Seas, in both cases linked to the tropical activity about 15 years earlier. These decadal changes are controlled by the low-frequency NAO that may be associated with a rapid atmospheric teleconnection from the tropics to the extratropics. Poleward advection of salinity anomalies in the mixed layer also leads to AMOC changes that are linked to processes in the Labrador Sea. A secondary mode of AMOC variability is associated with interannual changes in the Labrador and GIN Seas, through the impact of the NAO on local surface density.  相似文献   

3.
Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：11  
To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1–3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25–0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.  相似文献   

4.
全球海气耦合模式中热盐环流对大气强迫的响应   总被引：16，自引：4，他引：16  
周天军 《气象学报》2003,61(2):164-179
大气环流与热盐环流 (THC)变化之间的因果关系 ,是海气相互作用研究领域的一个悬而未决的问题。作者利用一个全球海气耦合模式 -挪威卑尔根气候模式 (BCM)的 3 0 0a积分结果 ,讨论了冬季北大西洋涛动 (NAO)对海洋的强迫与热盐环流的年际调整之间的关系。结果发现 ,在NAO活动的正位相 ,伴随着中纬度西风带的加强 ,北大西洋拉布拉多海热通量损失剧增 ,同时海表盐度出现正距平 ,二者的共同作用 ,令表层海水变沉、密度增大 ,海洋层结出现不稳定 ,导致深对流发生。在NAO活动达到最强劲状态之后 3个月 ,拉布拉多海对流也达到最深。北大西洋热盐环流强度变化对拉布拉多海对流活动的响应 ,要滞后 3a左右。而在年际尺度上 ,大西洋的极向热输送变化和热盐环流的变化则基本是同步的。对流活动对大气存在明显的反馈作用。在对流活动深度达到最大之后 1～4个月 ,对流热释放令拉布拉多海表层气温明显升高  相似文献   

5.
The variability of the climate during the last millennium is partly forced by changes in total solar irradiance (TSI). Nevertheless, the amplitude of these TSI changes is very small so that recent reconstruction data suggest that low frequency variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and in the thermohaline circulation may have amplified, in the North Atlantic sector and mostly in winter, the radiative changes due to TSI variations. In this study we use a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate the last millennium. We find that modelled variations of surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere are coherent with existing reconstructions. Moreover, in the model, the low frequency variability of this mean hemispheric temperature is found to be correlated at 0.74 with the solar forcing for the period 1001?C1860. Then, we focus on the regional climatic fingerprint of solar forcing in winter and find a significant relationship between the low frequency TSI forcing and the NAO with a time lag of more than 40?years for the response of the NAO. Such a lag is larger than the around 20-year lag suggested in other studies. We argue that this lag is due, in the model, to a northward shift of the tropical atmospheric convection in the Pacific Ocean, which is maximum more than four decades after the solar forcing increase. This shift then forces a positive NAO through an atmospheric wave connection related to the jet-stream wave guide. The shift of the tropical convection is due to the persistence of anomalous warm SST forcing the anomalous precipitation, associated with the advection of warm SST by the North Pacific subtropical gyre in a few decades. Finally, we analyse the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to solar forcing and find that the former is weakened when the latter increases. Changes in wind stress, notably due to the NAO, modify the barotropic streamfunction in the Atlantic 50?years after solar variations. This implies a wind-driven modification of the oceanic circulation in the Atlantic sector in response to changes in solar forcing, in addition to the variations of the thermohaline circulation.  相似文献   

6.
A striking characteristic of glacial climate in the North Atlantic region is the recurrence of abrupt shifts between cold stadials and mild interstadials. These shifts have been associated with abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) mode, possibly in response to glacial meltwater perturbations. However, it is poorly understood why they were more clearly expressed during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3, ~60?C27?ka BP) than during Termination 1 (T1, ~18?C10?ka BP) and especially around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~23?C19?ka BP). One clue may reside in varying climate forcings, making MIS3 and T1 generally milder than LGM. To investigate this idea, we evaluate in a climate model how ice sheet size, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration and orbital insolation changes between 56?ka BP (=56k), 21k and 12.5k affect the glacial AMOC response to additional freshwater forcing. We have performed three ensemble simulations with the earth system model LOVECLIM using those forcings. We find that the AMOC mode in the mild glacial climate type (56k and 12.5k), with deep convection in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, is more sensitive to a constant 0.15?Sv freshwater forcing than in the cold type (21k), with deep convection mainly south of Greenland and Iceland. The initial AMOC weakening in response to freshwater forcing is larger in the mild type due to an early shutdown of Labrador Sea deep convection, which is completely absent in the 21k simulation. This causes a larger fraction of the freshwater anomaly to remain at surface in the mild type compared to the cold type. After 200?years, a weak AMOC is established in both climate types, as further freshening is compensated by an anomalous salt advection from the (sub-)tropical North Atlantic. However, the slightly fresher sea surface in the mild type facilitates further weakening of the AMOC, which occurs when a surface buoyancy threshold (?0.6?kg?m?3 surface density anomaly to the 56k reference state) is stochastically crossed in the Nordic Seas. While described details are model-specific, our results imply that a more northern location of deep convection sites during milder glacial times may have amplified frequency and amplitude of abrupt climate shifts.  相似文献   

7.
20世纪北大西洋温盐环流的年代际变化试评估   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  
根据相对丰富的大气器测资料,综合前人对有限的海洋资料的诊断分析,从北大西洋涛动(NAO)变率、表层海温(SST)变率、格陵兰海和拉布拉多海的深对流活动长期变化等不同角度,对20世纪大洋温盐环流(Thermohaline Circulation,THC)变率进行了试评估.结果表明:(1)19世纪末以来,大西洋温盐环流的变化可分为4个时期:1900年以前的一段时期,THC较强;1904年到1930年,THC较弱;1931年到1972年,THC较强;1973年至1995年,THC较弱,目前则又有所增强.(2)与THC的变化相联系,大西洋主要气候要素的变化,相互间存在着某种协调关系,THC强,NAO弱,北大西洋北部SST升高,格陵兰海的对流活动增强,拉布拉多海的对流活动则减弱.  相似文献   

8.
W. Park  M. Latif 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(7-8):1709-1726
The response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to idealized external (solar) forcing is studied in terms of the internal (unforced) AMOC modes with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model. The statistical investigation of KCM’s internal AMOC variability obtained from a multi-millennial control run yields three distinct modes: a multi-decadal mode with a period of about 60?years, a quasi-centennial mode with a period of about 100?years and a multi-centennial mode with a period of about 300–400?years. Most variance is explained by the multi-centennial mode, and the least by the quasi-centennial mode. The solar constant varies sinusoidally with two different periods (100 and 60?years) in forced runs with KCM. The AMOC response to the external forcing is rather complex and nonlinear. It involves strong changes in the frequency structure of the variability. While the control run depicts multi-timescale behavior, the AMOC variability in the experiment with 100?year forcing period is channeled into a relatively narrow band centered near the forcing period. It is the quasi-centennial AMOC mode with a period of just under 100?years which is excited, although it is heavily damped in the control run. Thus, the quasi-centennial mode retains its period which does not correspond exactly to the forcing period. Surprisingly, the quasi-centennial mode is also most strongly excited when the forcing period is set to 60?years, the period of the multi-decadal mode which is rather prominent in the control run. It is largely the spatial structure of the forcing rather than its period that determines which of the three internal AMOC modes is excited. The results suggest that we need to understand the full modal structure of the internal AMOC variability in order to understand the circulation’s response to external forcing. This could be a challenge for climate models: we cannot necessarily expect that the response to external forcing is realistically captured by a model, even if only strongly damped modes are not well represented that do not account for much variance under present-day conditions.  相似文献   

9.
利用一个全球海气耦合模式--卑尔根气候模式的积分结果,揭示了与大西洋热盐环流(THC)年代际和年际振荡相对应的气候异常型.年代际振荡发生在全海盆尺度,伴有亚速尔高压的增强、冰岛低压的加深;年际振荡发生在局地尺度,伴有亚速尔高压的减弱.这两种海平面气压异常型都反映了北大西洋涛动(NAO)活动中心的强度变化,两种变率型对应的拉布拉多海对流活动都加剧.但伴随局地尺度的THC调整,伊尔明格海的对流活动减弱.蒸发异常对拉布拉多海表层盐度异常的影响较为显著.分析表明,局地尺度的THC振荡主要是对大气强迫的被动响应,而海盆尺度THC振荡的实质是反映整个输送带的强度变化,其气候意义要大于THC的局地振荡.  相似文献   

10.
Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in FGOALS-g2简   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） in the pre-industrial control experiment of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 （FGOALS-g2） was investigated using the model outputs with the most stable state in a 512-yr time window from the total 1500-yr period of the experiment. The period of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is double peaked at 20 and 32 years according to the power spectrum, and 22 years according to an auto-correlation analysis, which shows very obvious decadal variability. Like many other coupled climate models, the decadal variability of AMOC in FGOALS-g2 is closely related to the convection that occurs in the Labrador Sea region. Deep convection in the Labrador Sea in FGOALS-g2 leads the AMOC maximum by 3-4 years. The contributions of thermal and haline effects to the variability of the convection in three different regions [the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland-Iceland- Norwegian （GIN） Seas] were analyzed for FGOALS-g2. The variability of convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas is thermally dominant, while that in the colder GIN Seas can be mainly attributed to salinity changes due to the lower thermal expansion. By comparing the simulation results from FGOALS-g2 and 11 other models, it was found that AMOC variability can be attributed to salinity changes for longer periods （longer than 35 years） and to temperature changes for shorter periods.  相似文献   

11.
Variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been analysed using a 600-year pre-industrial control simulation with the Bergen Climate Model. The typical AMOC variability has amplitudes of 1?Sverdrup (1 Sv?=?106?m3?s?1) and time scales of 40–70?years. The model is reproducing the observed dense water formation regions and has very realistic ocean transports and water mass distributions. The dense water produced in the Labrador Sea (1/3) and in the Nordic Seas, including the water entrained into the dense overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR; 2/3), are the sources of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) forming the lower limb of the AMOC’s northern overturning. The variability in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas convection is driven by decadal scale air-sea fluxes in the convective region that can be related to opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Labrador Sea convection is directly linked to the variability in AMOC. Linkages between convection and water mass transformation in the Nordic Seas are more indirect. The Scandinavian Pattern, the third mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, is a driver of the ocean’s poleward heat transport (PHT), the overall constraint on northern water mass transformation. Increased PHT is both associated with an increased water mass exchange across the GSR, and a stronger AMOC.  相似文献   

12.
Global North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) oceanic precipitation features in the latter half of the twentieth century are documented based on the intercomparison of multiple state-of-the-art precipitation datasets and the analysis of the NAO atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies. Most prominent precipitation anomalies occur over the ocean in the North Atlantic, where in winter a “quadrupole-like” pattern is found with centers in the western tropical Atlantic, sub-tropical Atlantic, high-latitude eastern Atlantic and over the Labrador Sea. The extent of the sub-tropical and high-latitude center and the amount of explained variance (over 50%) are quite remarkable. However, the tropical Atlantic center is probably the most intriguing feature of this pattern apparently linking the NAO with ITCZ variability. In summer, the pattern is “tripole-like” with centers in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, the North Sea/Baltic Sea and in the sub-polar Atlantic. In the eastern Indian Ocean, the correlation is positive in winter and negative in summer, with some link to ENSO variability. The sensitivity of these patterns to the choice of the NAO index is minor in winter while quite important in summer. Interannual NAO precipitation anomalies have driven similar fresh water variations in these “key” regions. In the sub-tropical and high-latitude Atlantic in winter precipitation anomalies have been roughly 15 and 10% of climatology per unit change of the NAO, respectively. Decadal changes of the NAO during the last 50 years have also influenced precipitation and fresh water flux at these time-scales, with values lower (higher) than usual in the high-latitude eastern North Atlantic (Labrador Sea) in the 1960s and the late 1970s, and an opposite situation since the early 1980s; in summer the North Sea/Baltic region has been drier than usual during the period 1965–1975 when the NAO was generally positive.  相似文献   

13.
Observations show a multidecadal signal in the North Atlantic ocean, but the underlying mechanism and cause of its timescale remain unknown. Previous studies have suggested that it may be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the dominant pattern of winter atmospheric variability. To further address this issue, the global ocean general circulation model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), is driven using a 2,000 years long white noise forcing associated with the NAO. Focusing on key ocean circulation patterns, we show that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Sub-polar gyre (SPG) strength both have enhanced power at low frequencies but no dominant timescale, and thus provide no evidence for a oscillatory ocean-only mode of variability. Instead, both indices respond linearly to the NAO forcing, but with different response times. The variability of the AMOC at 30°N is strongly enhanced on timescales longer than 90 years, while that of the SPG strength starts increasing at 15 years. The different response characteristics are confirmed by constructing simple statistical models that show AMOC and SPG variability can be related to the NAO variability of the previous 53 and 10 winters, respectively. Alternatively, the AMOC and the SPG strength can be reconstructed with Auto-regressive (AR) models of order seven and five, respectively. Both statistical models reconstruct interannual and multidecadal AMOC variability well, while on the other hand, the AR(5) reconstruction of the SPG strength only captures multidecadal variability. Using these methods to reconstruct ocean variables can be useful for prediction and model intercomparision.  相似文献   

14.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a 600?years pre-industrial run of the newly developed EC-EARTH model features marked interdecadal variability with a dominant time-scale of 50–60?years. An oscillation of approximately 2 Sverdrup (1?Sv?=?106?m3?s?1) is identified, which manifests itself as a monopole causing the overturning to simultaneously strengthen (/weaken) and deepen (/shallow) as a whole. Eight years before the AMOC peaks, density in the Labrador-Irminger Sea region reaches a maximum, triggering deep water formation. This density change is caused by a counterclockwise advection of temperature and salinity anomalies at lower latitudes, which we relate to the north-south excursions of the subpolar-subtropical gyre boundary and variations in strength and position of the subpolar gyre and the North Atlantic Current. The AMOC fluctuations are not directly forced by the atmosphere, but occur in a delayed response of the ocean to forcing by the North Atlantic Oscillation, which initiates “intergyre”-gyre fluctuations. Associated with the AMOC is a 60-year sea surface temperature variability in the Atlantic, with a pattern and timescale showing similarities with the real-world Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. This good agreement with observations lends a certain degree of credibility that the mechanism that is described in this article could be seen as representative of the real climate system.  相似文献   

15.
Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of observations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal correlates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.  相似文献   

16.
Sea ice plays an important role in the variability of the Labrador Sea especially in its most western part adjacent to an important region of deep convection. Winter-to-winter re-emergence and propagation of both sea-ice concentration (SIC) and sea surface temperature anomalies have been observed following years of high SIC in this region. They have potentially important links to water mass properties and freshwater and heat transports in the subpolar North Atlantic. This article builds on the results of two precursor papers and presents results from a coupled sea-ice–ocean model study of the interannual variability of sea ice in the Labrador Sea. The relationships between SIC and water column properties in the subpolar North Atlantic are assessed. Winters with high SIC and strong surface cooling are found to be conducive to intensified convection. Surface and mid-depth temperature and salinity anomalies are observed in the Labrador Sea and the northwestern North Atlantic during winters with anomalous Labrador Sea SIC. These anomalies are found to propagate along the major circulation patterns in the subpolar North Atlantic and to persist for up to three years.  相似文献   

17.
The mechanisms by which natural forcing factors alone could drive simulated multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are assessed in an ensemble of climate model simulations. It is shown for a new state-of-the-art general circulation model, HadGEM2-ES, that the most important of these natural forcings, in terms of the multidecadal response of the AMOC, is solar rather than volcanic forcing. AMOC strengthening occurs through a densification of the North Atlantic, driven by anomalous surface freshwater fluxes due to increased evaporation. These are related to persistent North Atlantic atmospheric circulation anomalies, driven by forced changes in the stratosphere, associated with anomalously weak solar irradiance during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Within a period of approximately 100 years the 11-year smoothed ensemble mean AMOC strengthens by 1.5 Sv and subsequently weakens by 1.9 Sv, representing respectively approximately 3 and 4 standard deviations of the 11-year smoothed control simulation. The solar-induced variability of the AMOC has various relevant climate impacts, such as a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, anomalous Amazonian rainfall, and a sustained increase in European temperatures. While this model has only a partial representation of the atmospheric response to solar variability, these results demonstrate the potential for solar variability to have a multidecadal impact on North Atlantic climate.  相似文献   

18.
The response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) to a persistent positive (or negative) phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model forced with idealized atmospheric reanalysis fields. The integrations are analyzed with reference to a base-line integration for which the model is forced with idealized fields representing a neutral state of the NAO. In the positive NAO case, the results suggest that the well-known cooling and strengthening of the SPG are, after about 10 years, replaced by a warming and subsequent weakening of the SPG. The latter changes are caused by the advection of warm water from the subtropical gyre (STG) region, driven by a spin-up of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the effect of an anomalous wind stress curl in the northeastern North Atlantic, which counteracts the local buoyancy forcing of the SPG. In the negative NAO case, however, the SPG response does not involve a sign reversal, but rather shows a gradual weakening throughout the integration. The asymmetric SPG-response to the sign of persistent NAO-like forcing and the different time scales involved demonstrate strong non-linearity in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation response to atmospheric forcing. The latter finding indicates that analysis based on the arithmetic difference between the two NAO-states, e.g. NAO+ minus NAO?, may hide important aspects of the ocean response to atmospheric forcing.  相似文献   

19.
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is investigated in a millennial control simulation with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model. An oscillatory mode with approximately 60 years period and characteristics similar to observations is identified with the aid of three-dimensional temperature and salinity joint empirical orthogonal function analysis. The mode explains 30 % of variability on centennial and shorter timescales in the upper 2,000 m of the North Atlantic. It is associated with changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of ±1–2 Sv and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of ±0.2 °C. AMV in KCM results from an out-of-phase interaction between horizontal and vertical ocean circulation, coupled through Irminger Sea convection. Wintertime convection in this region is mainly controlled by salinity anomalies transported by the Subpolar Gyre (SPG). Increased (decreased) dense water formation in this region leads to a stronger (weaker) AMOC after 15 years, and this in turn leads to a weaker (stronger) SPG after another 15 years. The key role of salinity variations in the subpolar North Atlantic for AMV is confirmed in a 1,000 year long simulation with salinity restored to model climatology: No low frequency variations in convection are simulated, and the 60 year mode of variability is absent.  相似文献   

20.
《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):81-92
Abstract

Evidence based on numerical simulations is presented for a strong correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Using an ensemble of numerical experiments with a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model including both natural and anthropogenic forcings, it is shown that the weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) could be delayed in response to a sustained upward trend in the NAO, which was observed over the last three decades of the twentieth century, 1970–99. Overall warming and enhanced horizontal transports of heat from the tropics to the subpolar North Atlantic overwhelm the NAO‐induced cooling of the upper ocean layers due to enhanced fluxes of latent and sensible heat, so that the net effect of warmed surface ocean temperatures acts to increase the vertical stability of the ocean column. However, the strong westerly winds cause increased evaporation from the ocean surface, which leads to a reduced fresh water flux over the western part of the North Atlantic. Horizontal poleward transport of salinity anomalies from the tropical Atlantic is the major contributor to the increasing salinities in the sinking regions of the North Atlantic. The effect of positive salinity anomalies on surface ocean density overrides the opposing effect of enhanced warming of the ocean surface, which causes an increase in surface density in the Labrador Sea and in the ocean area south of Greenland. The increased density of the upper ocean layer leads to deeper convection in the Labrador Sea and in the western North Atlantic. With a lag of four years, the meridional overturning circulation of the North Atlantic shows strengthening as it adjusts to positive density anomalies and enhanced vertical mixing. During the positive NAO trend, the salinity‐driven density instability in the upper ocean, due to both increased northward ocean transports of salinity and decreased atmospheric freshwater fluxes, results in a strengthening overturning circulation in the North Atlantic when the surface atmospheric temperature increases by 0.3°C and the ocean surface temperature warms by 0.5° to 1°C.  相似文献   

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