排序方式： 共有27条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Bert Wouters Wilco Hazeleger 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(7-8):1263-1280
Decadal climate predictions may have skill due to predictable components in boundary conditions (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations but also tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol distributions) and initial conditions (mainly the ocean state). We investigate the skill of temperature and precipitation hindcasts from a multi-model ensemble of four climate forecast systems based on coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Regional variations in skill with and without trend are compared with similarly analysed uninitialised experiments to separate the trend due to monotonically increasing forcings from fluctuations around the trend due to the ocean initial state and aerosol forcings. In temperature most of the skill in both multi-model ensembles comes from the externally forced trends. The rise of the global mean temperature is represented well in the initialised hindcasts, but variations around the trend show little skill beyond the first year due to the absence of volcanic aerosols in the hindcasts and the unpredictability of ENSO. The models have non-trivial skill in hindcasts of North Atlantic sea surface temperature beyond the trend. This skill is highest in the northern North Atlantic in initialised experiments and in the subtropical North Atlantic in uninitialised simulations. A similar result is found in the Pacific Ocean, although the signal is less clear. The uninitialised simulations have good skill beyond the trend in the western North Pacific. The initialised experiments show some skill in the decadal ENSO region in the eastern Pacific, in agreement with previous studies. However, the results in this study are not statistically significant (p?≈?0.1) by themselves. The initialised models also show some skill in forecasting 4-year mean Sahel rainfall at lead times of 1 and 5?years, in agreement with the observed teleconnection from the Atlantic Ocean. Again, the skill is not statistically significant (p?≈?0.2). Furthermore, uninitialised simulations that include volcanic aerosols have similar skill. It is therefore still an open question whether initialisation improves predictions of Sahel rainfall. We conclude that the main source of skill in forecasting temperature is the trend forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The ocean initial state contributes to skill in some regions, but variations in boundary forcings such as aerosols are as important in decadal forecasting. 相似文献
2.
Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Doug M. Smith Adam A. Scaife George J. Boer Mihaela Caian Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Virginie Guemas Ed Hawkins Wilco Hazeleger Leon Hermanson Chun Kit Ho Masayoshi Ishii Viatcheslav Kharin Masahide Kimoto Ben Kirtman Judith Lean Daniela Matei William J. Merryfield Wolfgang A. Müller Holger Pohlmann Anthony Rosati Bert Wouters Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888
We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. 相似文献
3.
Tjalling de Haas Wilco van den Berg Lisanne Braat Maarten G. Kleinhans 《Sedimentology》2016,63(6):1596-1619
Alluvial fans develop their semi‐conical shape by quasi‐cyclic avulsions of their geomorphologically active sector from a fixed fan apex. On debris‐flow fans, these quasi‐cyclic avulsions are poorly understood, partly because physical scale experiments on the formation of fans have been limited largely to turbidite and fluvial fans and deltas. In this study, debris‐flow fans were experimentally created under constant extrinsic forcing, and autogenic sequences of backfilling, avulsion and channelization were observed. Backfilling, avulsion and channelization were gradual processes that required multiple successive debris‐flow events. Debris flows avulsed along preferential flow paths given by the balance between steepest descent and flow inertia. In the channelization phase, debris flows became progressively longer and narrower because momentum increasingly focused on the flow front as flow narrowed, resulting in longer run‐out and deeper channels. Backfilling commenced when debris flows reached their maximum possible length and channel depth, as defined by channel slope and debris‐flow volume and composition, after which they progressively shortened and widened until the entire channel was filled and avulsion was initiated. The terminus of deposition moved upstream because the frontal lobe deposits of previous debris flows created a low‐gradient zone forcing deposition. Consequently, the next debris flow was shorter which led to more in‐channel sedimentation, causing more overbank flow in the next debris flow and resulting in reduced momentum to the flow front and shorter runout. This topographic feedback is similar to the interaction between flow and mouth bars forcing backfilling and transitions from channelized to sheet flow in turbidite and fluvial fans and deltas. Debris‐flow avulsion cycles are governed by the same large‐scale topographic compensation that drives avulsion cycles on fluvial and turbidite fans, although the detailed processes are unique to debris‐flow fans. This novel result provides a basis for modelling of debris‐flow fans with applications in hazards and stratigraphy. 相似文献
4.
The Bjerknes feedback in the tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 models 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
5.
Andreas Sterl Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Wilco Hazeleger Gerrit Burgers 《Climate Dynamics》2007,29(5):469-485
Using observations covering the last 128 years we show that apparent changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections can be explained by chance and stem from sampling variability. This result is backed by experiments in which an atmosphere model is driven by 123 years of observed sea surface temperature. The possibility of ENSO teleconnection changes in a warming climate is further investigated using coupled GCMs driven by past and projected future greenhouse gas concentrations. These runs do not exclude physical changes in the teleconnection strength but do not agree on their magnitude and location. If existing at all, changes in the strength of ENSO teleconnection, other than obtained by chance, are small and will only be detectable on centennial time scales. 相似文献
6.
7.
Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Caroline A. Katsman A. Sterl J. J. Beersma H. W. van den Brink J. A. Church W. Hazeleger R. E. Kopp D. Kroon J. Kwadijk R. Lammersen J. Lowe M. Oppenheimer H. -P. Plag J. Ridley H. von Storch D. G. Vaughan P. Vellinga L. L. A. Vermeersen R. S. W. van de Wal R. Weisse 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):617-645
Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta. 相似文献
8.
The sensitivity of tropical Atlantic climate to upper ocean mixing is investigated using an ocean-only model and a coupled
ocean–atmosphere model. The upper ocean thermal structure and associated atmospheric circulation prove to be strongly related
to the strength of upper ocean mixing. Using the heat balance in the mixed layer it is shown that an excessively cold equatorial
cold tongue can be attributed to entrainment flux at the base of the oceanic mixed layer, that is too large. Enhanced entrainment
efficiency acts to deepen the mixed layer and causes strong reduction in the upper ocean divergence in the central equatorial
Atlantic. As a result, the simulated sea surface temperature, thermocline structure, and upwelling velocities are close to
the observed estimates. In the coupled model, the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reduces
when the entrainment efficiency in the oceanic mixed layer is enhanced. The precipitation rates decrease in the equatorial
region and increase along 10°N, resulting in a more realistic Atlantic Marine ITCZ. The reduced meridional surface temperature
gradient in the eastern tropical Atlantic prohibits the development of convective precipitation in the southeastern part of
the tropical Atlantic. Also, the simulation of tropical Atlantic variability as expressed in the meridional gradient mode
and the eastern cold tongue mode improves when the entrainment efficiency is enhanced. 相似文献
9.
Hylke de Vries Tim Woollings James Anstey Reindert J. Haarsma Wilco Hazeleger 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2643-2654
The future changes of atmospheric blocking over the Euro-Atlantic sector, diagnosed from an ensemble of 17 global-climate simulations obtained with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, are shown to be largely explainable from the change of the 500 hPa mean zonal circulation and its variance. The reduction of the blocking frequency over the Atlantic and the increased frequency of easterly upper-level flow poleward of 60°N are well explained by the changes of mean zonal circulation. In winter and autumn an additional downstream shift of the frequency maximum is simulated. This is also seen in a subset of the CMIP5 models with RCP8.5. To explain this downstream shift requires the inclusion of the changing variance. It is suggested that the increased downstream variance is caused by the stronger, more eastward extending future jet, which promotes Rossby wave breaking and blocking to occur further downstream. The same relation between jet-strength and central-blocking longitude is found in the variability of the current climate. 相似文献
10.