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1.
Continuous wavelet analyses of hourly time series of air temperature, stream discharge, and precipitation are used to compare the seasonal and inter‐annual variability in hydrological regimes of the two principal streams feeding Bow Lake, Banff National Park, Alberta: the glacial stream draining the Wapta Icefields, and the snowmelt‐fed Bow River. The goal is to understand how water sources and flow routing differ between the two catchments. Wavelet spectra and cross‐wavelet spectra were determined for air temperature and discharge from the two streams for summers (June–September) 1997–2000, and for rainfall and discharge for the summers of 1999 and 2000. The diurnal signal of the glacial runoff was orders of magnitude higher in 1998 than in other years, indicating that significant ice exposure and the development of channelized glacial drainage occurred as a result of the 1997–98 El Niño conditions. Early retreat of the snowpack in 1997 and 1998 led to a significant summer‐long input of melt runoff from a small area of ice cover in the Bow River catchment; but such inputs were not apparent in 1999 and 2000, when snow cover was more extensive. Rainfall had a stronger influence on runoff and followed quicker flow paths in the Bow River catchment than in the glacial catchment. Snowpack thickness and catchment size were the primary controls on the phase relationship between temperature and discharge at diurnal time scales. Wavelet analysis is a fast and effective means to characterize runoff, temperature, and precipitation regimes and their interrelationships and inter‐annual variability. The technique is effective at identifying inter‐annual and seasonal changes in the relative contributions of different water sources to runoff, and changes in the time required for routing of diurnal meltwater pulses through a catchment. However, it is less effective at identifying changes/differences in the type of the flow routing (e.g. overland flow versus through flow) between or within catchments. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
This study quantitatively characterizes annual, interannual, and decadal variability of Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) river discharges, MAB surface salinities, Long Island Sound (LIS) surface salinities, and LIS salinity stratification via wavelet analysis. Links among rivers, salinities, and standard climate indices are investigated through correlation analysis of the complete data records and low-pass time series (including periods greater than 1.5 years). All rivers and salinities analyzed have strong annual cycles that are distinguishable from random noise. All records have interannual power, but this variability is indistinguishable from the noise background. Some MAB rivers have significant multi-decadal power (near either 18-year or 26-year periods). Correlations are strong among MAB rivers, salinities at different shelf sections, and salinities at LIS stations. Negative correlations between MAB rivers and surface salinities account for a significant part of the observed variance: up to 29% for shelf salinities and 46% for LIS salinities. Shelf and estuary salinities are positively correlated; accounting for at most 61% of the variance. LIS salinity stratification is positively correlated with river discharge (up to 36% of the variance). Interannual variability exhibits similar statistical relationships with higher correlations. Average annual cycles indicate a 1–2-month sequential lag between peak river discharge, minimum estuary salinity, and minimum shelf salinity. Weak but significant correlations indicate a tendency for high discharge, low LIS salinity, and high LIS stratification to coincide with positive intervals of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.  相似文献   

3.
Rivers in the Mediterranean region often exhibit an intermittent character. An understanding and classification of the flow regimes of these rivers is needed, as flow patterns control both physicochemical and biological processes. This paper reports an attempt to classify flow regimes in Mediterranean rivers based on hydrological variables extracted from discharge time series. Long‐term discharge records from 60 rivers within the Mediterranean region were analysed in order to classify the streams into different flow regime groups. Hydrological indices (HIs) were derived for each stream and principal component analysis (PCA) and then applied to these indices to identify subsets of HIs describing the major sources of variations, while simultaneously minimizing redundancy. PCA was performed for two groups of streams (perennial and temporary) and for all streams combined. The results show that whereas perennial streams are mainly described by high‐flow indices, temporary streams are described by duration, variability and predictability indices. Agglomerative cluster analysis based on HIs identified six groups of rivers classified according to differences in intermittency and variability. A methodology allowing such a classification for ungauged catchments was also tested. Broad‐scale catchment characteristics based on digital elevation, climate, soil and land use data were derived for each long‐term station where these data were available. By using stepwise multiple regression analysis, statistically significant relationships were fitted, linking the three selected hydrological variables (mean annual number of zero‐flow days, predictability and flashiness) to the catchment characteristics. The method provides a means of simplifying the complexity of river systems and is thus useful for river basin management. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Jan F. Adamowski   《Journal of Hydrology》2008,353(3-4):247-266
In this study, a new method of stand-alone short-term spring snowmelt river flood forecasting was developed based on wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis. Wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis were used to decompose flow and meteorological time series data and to develop wavelet based constituent components which were then used to forecast floods 1, 2, and 6 days ahead. The newly developed wavelet forecasting method (WT) was compared to multiple linear regression analysis (MLR), autoregressive integrated moving average analysis (ARIMA), and artificial neural network analysis (ANN) for forecasting daily stream flows with lead-times equal to 1, 2, and 6 days. This comparison was done using data from the Rideau River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Numerical analysis was performed on daily maximum stream flow data from the Rideau River station and on meteorological data (rainfall, snowfall, and snow on ground) from the Ottawa Airport weather station. Data from 1970 to 1997 were used to train the models while data from 1998 to 2001 were used to test the models. The most significant finding of this research was that it was demonstrated that the proposed wavelet based forecasting method can be used with great accuracy as a stand-alone forecasting method for 1 and 2 days lead-time river flood forecasting, assuming that there are no significant trends in the amplitude for the same Julian day year-to-year, and that there is a relatively stable phase shift between the flow and meteorological time series. The best forecasting model for 1 day lead-time was a wavelet analysis model. In testing, it had the lowest RMSE value (13.8229), the highest R2 value (0.9753), and the highest EI value (0.9744). The best forecasting model for 2 days lead-time was also a wavelet analysis model. In testing, it had the lowest RMSE value (31.7985), the highest R2 value (0.8461), and the second highest EI value (0.8410). It was also shown that the proposed wavelet based forecasting method is not particularly accurate for longer lead-time forecasting such as 6 days, with the ANN method providing more accurate results. The best forecasting model for 6 days lead-time was an ANN model, with the wavelet model not performing as well. In testing, the wavelet model had an RMSE of 57.6917, an R2 of 0.4835, and an EI of 0.4366.  相似文献   

5.
D. Markovic  M. Koch 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2202-2211
Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of mean monthly time series of river flow, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, duration of bright sunshine, degree of cloud cover, short wave radiation, wind speed and potential evaporation within or in vicinity of the German part of the Elbe River Basin are analyzed. Statistically significant correlations between the 2–15 year scale‐averaged wavelet spectra of the hydroclimatic variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation‐ and Arctic Oscillation index are found which suggests that such long‐term patterns in hydroclimatic time series are externally forced. The Hurst parameter estimates (H) based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) indicate persistence for discharge, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and the degree of cloud cover, all having an annual cycle and a broad low‐frequency distribution. Also, DFA H parameter estimates are higher for discharge than for precipitation. The major long‐term quasi‐periodic variability modes of precipitation detected using Singular Spectrum Analysis coincide with those detected in the discharge time series. Upon subtraction of these low‐frequency quasi‐periodic modes, the DFA H parameter estimates suggest absence of the persistence for both precipitation and discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Quantifying geomorphic conditions that impact riverine ecosystems is critical in river management due to degraded riverine habitat, changing flow and thermal conditions, and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Geomorphic complexity at different scales directly impacts habitat heterogeneity and affects aquatic biodiversity resilience. Here we showed that the combination of continuous spatial survey at high resolution, topobathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR), and continuous wavelet analysis can help identify and characterize that complexity. We used a continuous wavelet analysis on 1-m resolution topobathymetry in three rivers in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho (USA), to identify different scales of topographic variability and the potential effects of this variability on salmonid redd site selection. On each river, wavelet scales characterized the topographic variability by portraying repeating patterns in the longitudinal profile. We found three major representative spatial wavelet scales of topographic variability in each river: a small wavelet scale associated with local morphology such as pools and riffles, a mid-wavelet scale that identified larger channel unit features, and a large wavelet scale related to valley-scale controls. The small wavelet scale was used to identify pools and riffles along the entire lengths of each river as well as areas with differing riffle-pool development. Areas along the rivers with high local topographic variability (high wavelet power) at all wavelet scales contained the largest features (i.e., deepest or longest pools) in the systems. By comparing the wavelet power for each wavelet scale to Chinook salmon redd locations, we found that higher small-scale wavelet power, which is related to pool-riffle topography, is important for redd site selection. The continuous wavelet methodology objectively identified scales of topographic variability present in these rivers, performed efficient channel-unit identification, and provided geomorphic assessment without laborious field surveys.  相似文献   

7.
Much of the sediment and nutrient load to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon happens during over bank floods, when discharge can be significantly underestimated by standard river gauges. This paper assesses the potential need for a flood load correction for 28 coastal rivers that discharge into the GBR lagoon. For each river, daily discharge was divided into flows above and below a 'flood' threshold to calculate the mean annual percentage flow above this threshold. Most GBR rivers potentially need a flood load correction as over 15% of their mean annual flow occurs above the minor flood level; only seven rivers need little/no correction as their flood flows were less than 5% of the mean annual flow. Improved assessment of the true load of materials to the GBR lagoon would be an important contribution to the monitoring and reporting of progress towards Reef Plan and associated marine load targets.  相似文献   

8.
Water temperature dynamics in High Arctic river basins   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Despite the high sensitivity of polar regions to climate change and the strong influence of temperature upon ecosystem processes, contemporary understanding of water temperature dynamics in Arctic river systems is limited. This research gap was addressed by exploring high‐resolution water column thermal regimes for glacier‐fed and non‐glacial rivers at eight sites across Svalbard during the 2010 melt season. Mean water column temperatures in glacier‐fed rivers (0.3–3.2 °C) were lowest and least variable near the glacier terminus but increased downstream (0.7–2.3 °C km–1). Non‐glacial rivers, where discharge was sourced primarily from snowmelt runoff, were warmer (mean: 2.9–5.7 °C) and more variable, indicating increased water residence times in shallow alluvial zones and increased potential for atmospheric influence. Mean summer water temperature and the magnitude of daily thermal variation were similar to those of some Alaskan Arctic rivers but low at all sites when compared with alpine glacierized environments at lower latitudes. Thermal regimes were correlated strongly (p < 0.01) with incoming short‐wave radiation, air temperature, and river discharge. Principal drivers of thermal variability were inferred to be (i) water source (i.e. glacier melt, snowmelt, groundwater); (ii) exposure time to the atmosphere; (iii) prevailing meteorological conditions; (iv) river discharge; (v) runoff interaction with permafrost and buried ice; and (vi) basin‐specific geomorphological features (e.g. channel morphology). These results provide insight into the potential changes in high‐latitude river systems in the context of projected warming in polar regions. We hypothesize that warmer and more variable temperature regimes may prevail in the future as the proportion of bulk discharge sourced from glacial meltwater declines and rivers undergo a progressive shift towards snow water and groundwater sources. Importantly, such changes could have implications for aquatic species diversity and abundance and influence rates of ecosystem functioning in high‐latitude river systems. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Stream temperature ranged from 3 to 4°C at an experimental site during snowmelt on Hokkaido Island, Japan, which provided direct evidence of major contributions of subsurface water to stream water. In contrast, stream temperatures during rainstorms in summer decreased gradually after stream flow peaked, attaining a nearly constant temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C. During storm flow recession, stream temperatures during summer or snowmelt were similar to the soil temperature at 1·8 m below the land surface, suggesting that subsurface water contributions to stream flow are derived from this depth. The hygrographs during two rainstorms, August 1987 and September 1989, were separated using temperature. The stream temperature was assumed to depend on the mixing of surface flow, having a temperature ranging from that of rainfall to that of shallow (50 cm deep) soil water, and subsurface flow, having the temperature of the soil at 1·8 m below the land surface. Subsurface flow was estimated to contribute 85–90% of the total stream flow during each rainstorm. A two‐component hydrograph separation was also evaluated using specific conductance. Runoff contributions from the two sources for the temperature and specific conductance analysis were similar. Analysis of the temperature and conductance–discharge hysteresis loop, and of individual flow components for storm hygrographs, provide a general picture of the runoff process in the experimental basin. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Hydrologic models have increasingly been used in forest hydrology to overcome the limitations of paired watershed experiments, where vegetative recovery and natural variability obscure the inferences and conclusions that can be drawn from such studies. Models are also plagued by uncertainty, however, and parameter equifinality is a common concern. Physically‐based, spatially‐distributed hydrologic models must therefore be tested with high‐quality experimental data describing a multitude of concurrent internal catchment processes under a range of hydrologic regimes. This study takes a novel approach by not only examining the ability of a pre‐calibrated model to realistically simulate watershed outlet flows over a four year period, but a multitude of spatially‐extensive, internal catchment process observations not previously evaluated, including: continuous groundwater dynamics, instantaneous stream and road network flows, and accumulation and melt period spatial snow distributions. Many hydrologic model evaluations are only on the comparison of predicted and observed discharge at a catchment outlet and remain in the ‘infant stage’ in terms of model testing. This study, on the other hand, tests the internal spatial predictions of a distributed model with a range of field observations over a wide range of hydroclimatic conditions. Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency was improved over prior evaluations due to continuing efforts in improving the quality of meteorological data collection. Road and stream network flows were generally well simulated for a range of hydrologic conditions, and snowpack spatial distributions were well simulated for one of two years examined. The spatial variability of groundwater dynamics was effectively simulated, except at locations where strong stream–groundwater interactions exist. Model simulations overall were quite successful in realistically simulating the spatiotemporal variability of internal catchment processes in the watershed, but the premature onset of simulated snowmelt for one of the simulation years has prompted further work in model development. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Surface water oxygen and hydrogen isotopic values are commonly used as proxies of precipitation isotopic values to track modern hydrologic processes while proxies of water isotopic values preserved in lake and river sediments are used for paleoclimate and paleoaltimetry studies. Previous work has been able to explain variability in USA river‐water and meteoric‐precipitation oxygen isotope variability with geographic variables. These studies show that in the western United States, river‐water isotopic values are depleted relative to precipitation values. In comparison, the controls on lake‐water isotopic values are not well constrained. It has been documented that western United States lake‐water input values, unlike river water, reflect the monthly weighted mean isotopic value of precipitation. To understand the differing controls on lake‐ and river‐water isotopic values in the western United States, we examine the seasonal distribution of precipitation, evaporation and snowmelt across a range of seasonality regimes. We generate new predictive equations based on easily measured factors for western United States lake‐water, which are able to explain 69–63% of the variability in lake‐water hydrogen and oxygen isotopic values. In addition to the geographic factors that can explain river and precipitation values, lake‐water isotopic values need factors related to local hydrologic and climatic characteristics to explain variability. Study results suggest that the spring snowmelt runs off the landscape via rivers and streams, depleting river and stream‐water isotopic values. By contrast, lakes receive seasonal contributions of precipitation in proportion to the seasonal fraction of total annual precipitation within their watershed. Climate change may alter the ratio of snow to rain fall, affecting water resource partitioning between rivers and lakes and by implication of groundwater. Paleolimnological studies must account for the multiple drivers of water isotopic values; likewise, studies based on the isotopic composition of fossil material need to distinguish between species that are associated with rivers versus lakes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
WANFIS, a conjunction model of discreet wavelet transform (DWT) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was developed for forecasting the current-day flow in a river when only available data are historical flows. Discreet wavelet transform decomposed the observed flow time series (OFTS) into wavelet components which captured useful information on three resolution levels. A smoothened flow time series (SFTS) was formed by filtering out the noise wavelet components and recombining the effective wavelet components. WANFIS model is essentially an ANFIS model with SFTS hydrograph as the input, while ANFIS and autoregression (AR) models, developed for comparison purpose, use OFTS hydrograph as input. For performance evaluation, the developed models were utilized for predicting daily monsoon flows for the Gandak River in Bihar state of India. During monsoon (June–October), this river carries large flows making the entire North Bihar unsafe for habitation or cultivation. Based on various performance indices, it was concluded that WANFIS models simulate the monsoon flows in the Gandak more reliably than ANFIS and AR models. The best performing WANFIS model, with four previous days’ flows as input, predicted the current-day Gandak flows with 80.7% accuracy while ANFIS and AR models predicted it with only 71.8 and 51.2% accuracies.  相似文献   

13.
The morphological active width, defined as the lateral extent of bed material displacement over time, is a fundamental parameter in multi‐threaded gravel‐bed rivers, linking complex channel dynamics to bedload transport. Here, results are presented from five constant discharge experiments, and three event hydrographs, covering a range of flow strengths and channel configurations for which morphological change, bedload transport rates, and stream power were measured in a physical model. Changes in channel morphology were determined via differencing of photogrammetrically‐derived digital elevation models (DEMs) of the model surface generated at regular intervals over the course of ~115 h of experimental runs. Independent measures of total bedload output were made using downstream sediment baskets. Results indicate that the morphological active width increases with total and dimensionless stream power and is strongly and positively correlated with bulk change (total volume of bed material displaced over time) and active braiding intensity (ABI). Although there is considerable scatter due to the inherent variability in braided river morphodynamics, the active width is positively correlated with independent measurements of bedload transport rate. Active width, bulk change, and bedload transport rates were all negligible below a dimensionless stream power threshold value of ~ 0.09, above which all increase with flow strength. Therefore, the active width could be used as a general predictor of bulk change and bedload transport rates, which in turn could be approximated from total and dimensionless stream power or ABI in gravel‐bed braided rivers. Furthermore, results highlight the importance of the active width, rather than the morphological active depth, in predicting volumes of change and bedload transport rates. The results contribute to the larger goals of better understanding braided river morphodynamics, creating large high‐resolution datasets of channel change for model calibration and validation, and developing morphological methods for predicting bedload transport rates in braiding river systems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Extreme hydrological events are often triggered by exceptional co-variations of the relevant hydrometeorological processes and in particular by exceptional co-oscillations at various temporal scales. Wavelet and cross wavelet spectral analysis offers promising time-scale resolved analysis methods to detect and analyze such exceptional co-oscillations. This paper presents the state-of-the-art methods of wavelet spectral analysis, discusses related subtleties, potential pitfalls and recently developed solutions to overcome them and shows how wavelet spectral analysis, if combined to a rigorous significance test, can lead to reliable new insights into hydrometeorological processes for real-world applications. The presented methods are applied to detect potentially flood triggering situations in a high Alpine catchment for which a recent re-estimation of design floods encountered significant problems simulating the observed high flows. For this case study, wavelet spectral analysis of precipitation, temperature and discharge offers a powerful tool to help detecting potentially flood producing meteorological situations and to distinguish between different types of floods with respect to the prevailing critical hydrometeorological conditions. This opens very new perspectives for the analysis of model performances focusing on the occurrence and non-occurrence of different types of high flow events. Based on the obtained results, the paper summarizes important recommendations for future applications of wavelet spectral analysis in hydrology.  相似文献   

15.
Understanding low flow variability is critical for assessing water quality and health of riverine ecosystems in a river basin. Low flows are dependent on human water abstraction as well as the climate variability. This paper investigates the changing nature of low flows and their association with large-scale climate variability for different watersheds in the State of Texas, USA. For this purpose, we employed trend, wavelet analysis and linear as well as nonlinear correlations to identify important changes in low flow characteristics for three stream-gauging stations selected from different (i.e. Brazos, Colorado and Trinity) river basins located in Texas for the time period of 1916–1959 and 1960–2003. We also investigated the teleconnections between low flow variables and the large-scale climate indices (NINO 3.4, SOI and PDO) using cross wavelet analysis as well as their linear and non-linear correlation relationship. Our results indicated that the low flow magnitudes have shown considerable different characteristics for selected river basins during two separate time periods (1916–1959 and 1960–2003). Based on cross wavelet analysis, we identified that the low flows in selected stations of Colorado and Trinity River basins are likely to be influenced by all three large-scale climate indices. In addition to that, we identified that low flows are more nonlinearly associated with climate indices. Among the selected River basins, the stronger association between low flows and large scale climate indices are observed for Trinity River basin. The results from this study can help in better understanding of low flow hydrology and their potential relationship with large scale indices.  相似文献   

16.
Streamflow variability in space and time critically affects anthropic water uses and ecosystem services. Unfortunately, spatiotemporal patterns of flow regimes are often unknown, as discharge measurements are usually recorded at a limited number of hydrometric stations unevenly distributed along river networks. Advances in understanding the physical processes that control the spatial patterns of river flows are therefore necessary to predict water availability at ungauged locations or to extrapolate pointwise streamflow observations. This work explores the use of the spatial correlation of river flows as a metric to quantify the similarity between hydrological responses of two catchments. Following a stochastic framework, 340,000 cross‐correlations between pairs of daily streamflows time series are predicted at a seasonal timescale across the contiguous United States using 413 catchments of the MOPEX dataset. Model predictions of streamflow correlation obtained in absence of run‐off information are successfully used to identify catchment outlets sharing similar discharge dynamics and flow regimes across a broad range of geomorphoclimatic conditions, without relying on calibration. The selection of reference streamgauges based on predicted streamflow correlation generally outperforms the selection based on spatial proximity, especially as the density of available gauged sections decreases. Interestingly, correlated outlets share a broad spectrum of hydrological signatures (mean discharge, flow variability, and recession properties), suggesting that catchments forced by analogous frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events might exhibit common geomorphoecological traits leading to similar hydrological responses. The proposed framework provides a physical basis to assist the regionalization of flow dynamics and to interpret the spatial variability of flow regimes along stream networks.  相似文献   

17.
Human‐accelerated climate change is quickly leading to glacier‐free mountains, with consequences for the ecology and hydrology of alpine river systems. Water origin (i.e., glacier, snowmelt, precipitation, and groundwater) is a key control on multiple facets of alpine stream ecosystems, because it drives the physico‐chemical template of the habitat in which ecological communities reside and interact and ecosystem processes occur. Accordingly, distinct alpine stream types and associated communities have been identified. However, unlike streams fed by glaciers (i.e., kryal), groundwater (i.e., krenal), and snowmelt/precipitation (i.e., rhithral), those fed by rock glaciers are still poorly documented. We characterized the physical and chemical features of these streams and investigated the influence of rock glaciers on the habitat template of alpine river networks. We analysed two subcatchments in a deglaciating area of the Central European Alps, where rock glacier‐fed, groundwater‐fed, and glacier‐fed streams are all present. We monitored the spatial, seasonal, and diel variability of physical conditions (i.e., water temperature, turbidity, channel stability, and discharge) and chemical variables (electrical conductivity, major ions, and trace element concentrations) during the snowmelt, glacier ablation, and flow recession periods of two consecutive years. We observed distinct physical and chemical conditions and seasonal responses for the different stream types. Rock glacial streams were characterized by very low and constant water temperatures, stable channels, clear waters, and high concentrations of ions and trace elements that increased as summer progressed. Furthermore, one rock glacier strongly influenced the habitat template of downstream waters due to high solute export, especially in late summer under increased permafrost thaw. Given their unique set of environmental conditions, we suggest that streams fed by thawing rock glaciers are distinct river habitats that differ from those normally classified for alpine streams. Rock glaciers may become increasingly important in shaping the hydroecology of alpine river systems under continued deglaciation.  相似文献   

18.
To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R2 about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R2 = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Temporal and spatial variability in extreme quantile anomalies of seasonal and annual maximum river flows was studied for 41 gauging stations at rivers in the Upper Vistula River basin, Poland. Using the quantile perturbation method, the temporal variability in anomalies was analysed. Interdecadal oscillating components were extracted from the series of anomalies using the Hilbert‐Huang transform method. Period length, part of variance of each component, and part of unexplained variance were assessed. Results show an oscillating pattern in the temporal occurrence of extreme flow quantiles with clusters of high values in the 1960–1970s and since the late 1990s and of low values in the 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s. The anomalies show a high variability on the right bank of the Upper Vistula River basin during the summer season with the highest values in catchments located in the western and south‐western parts of the basin. River flow extreme quantiles were found to be associated with large‐scale climatic variables from the regions of the North Atlantic Ocean, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Asia, and, to a lesser extent, the Pacific Ocean. Similarities between temporal variability of river flows and climatic factors were revealed. Results of the study are important for flood frequency analysis because a long observation period is necessary to capture clusters of high and low river flows.  相似文献   

20.
Solute transport in rivers is controlled by surface hydrodynamics and by mass exchanges with distinct retention zones. Surface and hyporheic retention processes can be accounted for separately in solute transport models with multiple storage compartments. In the simplest two component model, short term storage can be associated to in-channel transient retention, e.g. produced by riparian vegetation or surface dead zones, and the long-term storage can be associated to hyporheic exchange. The STIR (Solute Transport In Rivers) multiple domain transport model is applied here to tracer test data from three very different Mediterranean streams with distinctive characteristics in terms of flow discharge, vegetation and substrate material. The model is used with an exponential residence time distribution (RTD) to represent surface storage processes and two distinct modeling closures are tested to simulate hyporheic retention: a second exponential RTD and a power-law distribution approximating a known solution for bedform-induced hyporheic exchange. Each stream shows distinct retention patterns characterized by different timescales of the storage time distribution. Both modeling closures lead to very good approximations of the observed breakthrough curves in the two rivers with permeable bed exposed to the flow, where hyporheic flows are expected to occur. In the one case where the occurrence of hyporheic flows is inhibited by bottom vegetation, only the two exponential RTD model is acceptable and the time scales of the two components are of the same magnitude. The significant finding of this work is the recognition of a strong signature of the river properties on tracer data and the evidence of the ability of multiple-component models to describe individual stream responses. This evidence may open a new perspective in river contamination studies, where rivers could possibly be classified based on their ability to trap and release pollutants.  相似文献   

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