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1.
In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies.  相似文献   

2.
This article presents a sensitivity analysis investigating the impact of using high-resolution site conditions databases in portfolio earthquake loss estimation. This article also estimates the effects of variability in the site condition databases on probabilistic earthquake loss ratios and their geographical pattern with respect to structural characteristics of different building types. To perform the earthquake loss estimation here, the OpenQuake software developed by Global Earthquake Model is implemented in Clemson University’s supercomputer. The probabilistic event-based risk analysis is employed considering several notional portfolios of different building types in the San Francisco area as the inventory exposure. This analysis produces the stochastic event sets worth for 10,000 years including almost 8000 synthetically simulated earthquakes. Then, the ground motion prediction equations are used to calculate the ground motion per event and incorporate the effect of five site conditions, on amplifying or de-amplifying the ground motions on notional building exposure locations. Notional buildings are used to account for various building characteristics in conformance with the building taxonomy represented in HAZUS software. The HAZUS damage functions are applied to model the vulnerability of various structural types of buildings. Finally, the 50-year average mean loss and probabilistic loss for multiple values for probability of exceedance (2, 10, 20, and 40%) in 50 years are calculated, and the impact of different site condition databases on portfolio loss ratios is investigated for different structural types and heights of buildings. The results show the aggregated and geographical variation of loss and loss ratio throughout the region for various site conditions. Comparing the aggregated loss and loss ratio, while considering different databases, represents normalized differences that are limited to 6% for all building taxonomy with various heights and for all PoEs. However, site-specific loss ratio errors are significantly greater and in some cases are more than 20%.  相似文献   

3.

Large-scale impacts from natural disasters suffered by society encourage researchers and public agencies to develop methods to evaluate, mitigate, respond, and recover from these events. A key aspect for the calculation of the potential earthquake losses is to properly describe the characteristics and value of assets exposed to seismic hazard. This article describes a methodology to develop an exposure model at a census-block resolution for residential structures in Chile using statistical data. The methodology is based on three steps: (1) obtaining dwelling count, construction material and location from census data, (2) defining classification rules for dwellings associated with houses and apartment buildings, and (3) assigning structural typologies and replacement cost. The resulting exposure model consists of a database with the number of residential structures classified into 18 structural typologies at each census block and the associated replacement cost. A total of 4,259,804 residential structures were identified in the national exposure model. Overall, clay brick and concrete block masonry account for 53.5 % of the structures of the country followed by timber (33.7 %), reinforced concrete (8.1 %), and adobe (4.6 %). Also, a methodology using remote digital survey techniques is proposed and used to obtain local exposure models for the cities of Iquique, Rancagua, and Osorno. The results of the national exposure model are compared with the local exposure models. An important feature of the proposed methodologies is that the building stock is classified into structural typologies, which is a key aspect for conducting seismic risk assessment. The methodologies used to construct the national and local exposure models may be extrapolated to other countries by adjusting the classification rules. The exposure models that were constructed represent an important input for risk calculations, by improving the technical capabilities for seismic risk management of the country.

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4.
Economic damage assessment for flood risk estimation is established in many countries, but attentions have been focused on macro- or meso-scale approaches and less on micro-scale approaches. Whilst the macro- or meso-scale approaches of flood damage assessment are suitable for regional- or national-oriented studies, micro-scale approaches are more suitable for cost–benefit analysis of engineered protection measures. Furthermore, there remains lack of systematic and automated approaches to estimate economic flood damage for multiple flood scenarios for the purpose of flood risk assessment. Studies on flood risk have also been driven by the assumption of stationary characteristic of flood hazard, hence the stationary-oriented vulnerability assessment. This study proposes a novel approach to assess vulnerability and flood risk and accounts for adaptability of the approach to nonstationary conditions of flood hazard. The approach is innovative in which an automated concurrent estimation of economic flood damage for a range of flood events on the basis of a micro-scale flood risk assessment is made possible. It accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of residential buildings of a community exposed to flood hazard. The feasibility of the methodology was tested using real historical flow records and spatial information of Teddington, London. Vulnerability curves and residual risk associated with a number of alternative extents of property-level protection adoptions are estimated by the application of the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has the capacity to provide valuable information on vulnerability and flood risk that can be integrated in a practical decision-making process for a reliable cost–benefit analysis of flood risk reduction options.  相似文献   

5.
This paper presents a new optimization model to help cities in seismically active developing countries decide (1) How much to spend on pre-earthquake mitigation versus waiting until after an event and paying for reconstruction or simply not rebuilding damaged buildings? (2) Which buildings to mitigate and how? and (3) Which buildings to reconstruct and how? It extends previously developed optimization models to consider the particular issues that arise in such countries. First, the model allows for the possibility that some damaged buildings will not be reconstructed immediately and keeps track of any lost building inventory. Second, buildings can be mitigated to, or when damaged, reconstructed to, any appropriate structural type and seismic design level. Finally, the model objectives include minimizing the chance of an extremely high death toll in any one earthquake and minimizing the average annual death toll across earthquakes. The model is illustrated through a case study analysis for Tehran, Iran.  相似文献   

6.
Kijko  A.  Retief  S. J. P.  Graham  G. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(1):25-41
This is the second part of our study on the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk for Tulbagh, the settlement, located about 90 km N-E from Cape Town, where the strongest and most damaging earthquake known in the existing earthquake history of South Africa took place. This part of our study, which can be read independently from Part I, concentrates on the probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) forTulbagh. The work begins with an introduction and a historical perspective on the estimation of seismic damage to buildings. The methodology for the estimation of expected damage from a probabilistic point of view is then presented. The work closes with an application of the described methodology to a site in the vicinity of Tulbagh.  相似文献   

7.
For risk analyses not only knowledge about the impact of different types of hazards, but also information about the elements and values at risk is necessary. This article introduces a methodology for a countrywide estimation of asset values for commercial and industrial properties using Germany as an example. It consists of a financial appraisal of asset values on the municipal level and a further disaggregation by means of land use data. Novelties are the distinction of 60 economic activities, the consideration of production site sizes and the application of a dasymetric mapping technique for a sector-specific estimation and disaggregation of asset values. A validation with empirical data confirms the feasibility of the calculation. The resulting maps can be used for loss estimations e.g. in the framework of cost–benefit analyses that aim to evaluate hazard mitigation measures or for portfolio analyses by banks and insurance companies. The approach can be used for other countries if the necessary data is available (mainly in industrialized countries). In any case, it reveals the critical points when estimating commercial and industrial asset values.  相似文献   

8.
This study aims to carry out a seismic risk assessment for a typical mid-size city based on building inventory from a field study. Contributions were made to existing loss estimation methods for buildings. In particular, a procedure was introduced to estimate the seismic quality of buildings using a scoring scheme for the effective parameters in seismic behavior. Denizli, a typical mid-size city in Turkey, was used as a case study. The building inventory was conducted by trained observers in a selected region of Denizli that had the potential to be damaged from expected future earthquakes according to geological and geotechnical studies. Parameters that are known to have some effect on the seismic performance of the buildings during past earthquakes were collected during the inventory studies. The inventory includes data of about 3,466 buildings on 4,226 parcels. The evaluation of inventory data provided information about the distribution of building stock according to structural system, construction year, and vertical and plan irregularities. The inventory data and the proposed procedure were used to assess the building damage, and to determine casualty and shelter needs during the M6.3 and 7.0 scenario earthquakes, representing the most probable and maximum earthquakes in Denizli, respectively. The damage assessment and loss studies showed that significant casualties and economic losses can be expected in future earthquakes. Seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete buildings also revealed the priorities among building groups. The vulnerability in decreasing order is: (1) buildings with 6 or more stories, (2) pre-1975 constructed buildings, and (3) buildings with 3–5 stories. The future studies for evaluating and reducing seismic risk for buildings should follow this priority order. All data of inventory, damage, and loss estimates were assembled in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database.  相似文献   

9.
Algeria is a country with a high seismic activity. During the last decade, many destructive earthquakes occurred, particularly in the northern part, causing enormous losses in human lives, buildings, and equipments. In order to reduce this risk in the capital and avoid serious damages to the strategic existing buildings, the government decided to invest in seismic upgrade, strengthening, and retrofitting of these buildings. To do so, seismic vulnerability study of this category of buildings has been considered. Structural analysis is performed based on a site investigation (inspection of the building, collecting data, materials characteristics, general conditions of the building, etc.) and existing drawings (architectural plans, structural design, etc.). The aim of these seismic vulnerability studies is to develop guidelines and a methodology for rehabilitation of existing buildings. This paper presents the methodology followed in our study and summarizes the vulnerability assessment and strengthening of one of the strategic buildings according to the new Algerian Seismic Design Code RPA 99/version 2003. As a direct application of this methodology, both static equivalent method and nonlinear dynamic analysis are performed and presented in this paper.  相似文献   

10.
Qi  Wenhua  Su  Guiwu  Sun  Lei  Yang  Fan  Wu  Yang 《Natural Hazards》2016,86(1):107-139

This paper presents the development of an “Internet+” approach to mapping exposure and seismic vulnerability of buildings in a context of rapid socioeconomic growth. This approach is a combination of the following interdependent components: (1) extraction of footprint areas of a large number of buildings from high-resolution Google Earth images; (2) estimation of floor numbers of these buildings with an integrated use of high-resolution Google Earth images, Tencent/Baidu Street Views, crowdsourcing data, and associated building-relevant local knowledge; and (3) identification of structural types of these buildings by a combined use of crowdsourcing data and associated building-relevant local knowledge. The efficacy of this “Internet+” approach was demonstrated through an application in Tangshan, China. Field-based verification indicated that the overall mean absolute percentage error of the proposed “Internet+” approach in assessing the total floor area of the addressed buildings was 4.64 %. The verification also showed that the overall consistency between the estimated structural types using the proposed approach and the actual structural types of the buildings with structural type uncertainties could reach 97.54 %, with a kappa coefficient of 0.94. Because of its good accuracy, noteworthy speed, substantial labor savings, negligible cost and distinctive capability in covering large areas in near real time, this “Internet+” approach might have promising prospects in actual seismic loss risk reduction challenges.

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11.
Flood risk assessment for informal settlements   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
The urban informal settlements are particularly vulnerable to flooding events, due to both their generally poor quality of construction and high population density. An integrated approach to the analysis of flooding risk of informal settlements should take into account, and propagate, the many sources of uncertainty affecting the problem, ranging from the characterization of rainfall curve and flooding hazard to the characterization of the vulnerability of the portfolio of buildings. This paper proposes a probabilistic and modular approach for calculating the flooding risk in terms of the mean annual frequency of exceeding a specific limit state for each building within the informal settlement and the expected number of people affected (if the area is not evacuated). The flooding risk in this approach is calculated by the convolution of flooding hazard and flooding fragility for a specified limit state for each structure within the portfolio of buildings. This is achieved by employing the flooding height as an intermediate variable bridging over the fragility and hazard calculations. The focus of this paper is on an ultimate limit state where the life of slum dwellers is endangered by flooding. The fragility is calculated by using a logic tree procedure where several possible combinations of building features/construction details, and their eventual outcome in terms of the necessity to perform structural analysis or the application of nominal threshold flood heights, are taken into account. The logic tree branch probabilities are characterized based on both the orthophoto recognition and the sample in situ building survey. The application of the methodology is presented for Suna, a sub-ward of Dar es Salaam City (Tanzania) in the Msimbazi River basin having a high concentration of informal settlements.  相似文献   

12.
We developed a model to estimate seismic vulnerability of health facilities in Mexico City, Mexico, following these steps: (1) designing a theoretical framework (TF) to measure structural, non-structural, functional, and administrative-organizational vulnerabilities; (2) measurement of the vulnerability conditions of the analyzed facility by using the TF; and (3) estimation of the hospital’s seismic vulnerability by comparing the measured vulnerability to the TF’s vulnerability indicators by taking into account the optimal case. The TF was developed considering a scoring system and international standards for risk management in hospitals. The methodology establishes the degree of vulnerability of the analyzed institution as well as its interrelations with external infrastructure systems. This tool also identifies existing failures to estimate expected damage. The methodology was applied to the National Cardiology Hospital, the Children’s Hospital “Dr. Federico Gómez,” and the “Hospital de Jesus” of Mexico City. The vulnerability problems in these three hospitals are common within them, and some of the main causes of vulnerability found are: (1) the lack of technology to resistant seismic shaking; (2) the need to develop or update disaster response plans; (3) the need of periodic and proper maintenance to hospitals’ buildings; (4) the lack of sufficient financial resources for vulnerability reduction projects and autonomous operations of the hospital during 3–5 days after a disaster occurs. We believe that vulnerability in these health facilities can be reduced with low-cost procedures and that the methodology developed here will support the decision-making processes to reduce seismic risk in Mexico City.  相似文献   

13.
Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima.  相似文献   

14.
This paper is concerned with an investigation of the damage to residential buildings in two areas within Gilan and Zanjan provinces, Iran, caused by the Manjil-Rudbar earthquake of 20 June 1990. A statistical correlation between the observed ground motion and the damage to the residential buildings is derived for overall damaged buildings and expressed as the vulnerability function. The loss function is calculated by combining the seismic hazard with the vulnerability function.The study of vulnerability and annual seismic hazard shows that the specific annual risk for the range of motion of 0.18 to 0.5 g is equal to 0.02. This indicates that the specific risk for semi-engineered residential buildings with a lifetime of 20 years is about 33%. This study also shows that in large cities, such as Tehran, located in seismic areas, the extent of damage according to the vulnerability function will be 45 and 70% for expected maximum accelerations of 0.3 and 0.4 g, respectively.  相似文献   

15.
The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making.  相似文献   

16.
We performed large-scale earthquake economic loss estimations for France and cost–benefit analyses for several French cities by developing a semiempirical, intensity-based approach. The proposed methodology is inexpensive and easily applicable in case of a paucity of detailed information regarding the specific regional seismic hazard and the structural characteristics of the building stock, which is of particular importance in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions. The exposure model is derived from census datasets, and the seismic vulnerability distribution of buildings is calculated using data mining techniques. Several hypothetical, large-scale retrofit scenarios are proposed, with increasing levels of investment. These cities, in their respective reinforced states, are then subjected to a series of hazard scenarios. Seismic hazard data for different return periods are calculated from regulatory accelerations from French seismic zoning. Loss estimations for the original (non-reinforced) configuration show high levels of expected building repair and replacement costs for all time spans. Finally, the benefits in terms of damage avoidance are compared with the costs of each retrofit measure. Relatively limited strengthening investments reduce the probability of building collapse, which is the main cause of human casualties. However, the results of this study suggest that retrofitting is, on average, only cost-effective in the parts of France with the highest seismicity and over the longest time horizons.  相似文献   

17.
The site amplification functions at 48 sites of NCR have been estimated in this study using the waveforms of locally recorded 23 earthquakes. Due to the absence of a suitable reference site in the region, the widely used horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique has been used for this purpose. The maps showing the spatial distribution of predominant frequencies and the site amplifications at different frequencies corresponding to the natural frequencies of the different-storey buildings have been presented. The predominant frequencies in general are found to be in the range 2.5–7.5 Hz with an average of 4.4 Hz for the region having older alluvium sediments and in the range 1.1–6.4 Hz with an average of 3.3 Hz for the region with the younger alluvium deposits. The average value of the site amplifications for the frequency band 3.0–10.0 Hz is in the range 2.0–5.3 for the sites with significant soil cover, while the spectral amplification corresponding to the predominant frequency varies from 2.5 to 7.5 at most of the sites. The spectral amplification level lies in the range 2.0–3.0 for the sites with less or no sediment cover. The spectral amplification levels presented for the different-storey buildings may be used for the mitigation of seismic hazard in the region. The estimated site amplification functions may be used in the simulation of the site-specific strong ground motions and therefore useful for the evaluation of seismic hazard of a region.  相似文献   

18.
Overview of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  
The National Science Council (NSC) of Taiwan started the HAZ-Taiwan project in 1998 to promote researches on seismic hazard analysis, structural damage assessment, and socio-economic loss estimation. The associated application software, “Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES)”, integrates various inventory data and analysis modules to fulfill three objectives. First, it helps to obtain reliable estimates of seismic hazards and losses soon after occurrence of large earthquakes. Second, it helps to simulate earthquake scenarios and to provide useful estimates for local governments or public services to propose their seismic disaster mitigation plans. Third, it helps to provide catastrophic risk management tools, such as proposing the seismic insurance policy for residential buildings. This paper focuses on the development and application of analysis modules used in early loss estimation system. These modules include assessments of ground motion intensity, soil liquefaction potential, building damage and casualty.  相似文献   

19.
In natural hazard risk assessment situations are encountered where information on the portfolio of exposure is only available in a spatially aggregated form, hindering a precise risk assessment. Recourse might be found in the spatial disaggregation of the portfolio of exposure to the resolution of the hazard model. Given the uncertainty inherent to any disaggregation, it is argued that the disaggregation should be performed probabilistically. In this paper, a methodology for probabilistic disaggregation of spatially aggregated values is presented. The methodology is exemplified with the disaggregation of a portfolio of buildings in two communes in Switzerland and the results are compared to sample observations. The relevance of probabilistic disaggregation uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated with the example of a simple flood risk assessment.  相似文献   

20.
A number of high-profile seismic events have occurred in recent years, with a wide variation in the resulting economic damage and loss of life. This variation has been attributed in part to the stringency of seismic building codes implemented in different regions. Using the HAZUS Earthquake Model, a benefit?Ccost analysis was performed on varying levels of standard buildings codes for Haiti and Puerto Rico. The methodology computes expected loss assuming a Poisson event process with lognormally distributed event magnitude and idealized damage?Cmagnitude response functions. The event frequency and magnitude distributions are estimated from the historical record, while the damage functions are fit using HAZUS simulation results for events with systematically varying magnitudes and different seismic code levels. To validate the approach, a single-event analysis was conducted using alternative building codes and mean magnitude earthquakes. A probabilistic analysis was then used to evaluate the long-term expected value for alternative levels of building codes. To account for the relationship between lives saved and economic loss, the implicit cost of saving a life is computed for each code option. It was found that in the two areas studied, the expected loss of life was reduced the most by use of high seismic building code levels, but lower levels of seismic building code were more cost-effective when considering only building damages and the costs for code implementation. The methodology presented is meant to provide a basic framework for the future development of an economic-behavioral model for code adoption.  相似文献   

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