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1.
Salgado-G&#;lvez Mario A. Zuloaga Daniela Henao Sebastian Bernal Gabriel A. Cardona Omar-Dar&#;o 《Natural Hazards》2017,93(1):5-24
A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city.
相似文献2.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez Daniela Zuloaga Sebastian Henao Gabriel A. Bernal Omar-Darío Cardona 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(1):5-24
A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city. 相似文献
3.
Mabel C. Marulanda Omar D. Cardona Miguel G. Mora Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2071-2088
Understanding and evaluating disaster risk due to natural hazard events such as earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. The use of models for earthquake risk evaluation allows obtaining outputs such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, which are probabilistic metrics useful for risk analyses, for designing strategies for risk reduction and mitigation, for emergency response strategies and for risk financing. This article presents, based on probabilistic risk models, the design and implementation of a risk transfer instrument to cover the private buildings of the city of Manizales, Colombia. This voluntary collective instrument provides financial protection to both, the estate tax payers and the low-income homeowners through a cross-subsidy strategy; besides, it promotes not only the insurance culture but also the solidarity of the community. The city administration and the insurance industry are promoting this program using the mechanism of the property tax payment. This collective insurance helps the government to access key resources for low-income householders recovery and improve disaster risk management at local level. 相似文献
4.
This article describes a new performance-based approach for evaluating the return period of seismic soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) data. The conventional liquefaction evaluation methods consider a single acceleration level and magnitude and these approaches fail to take into account the uncertainty in earthquake loading. The seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic method clearly shows that a particular acceleration value is being contributed by different magnitudes with varying probability. In the new method presented in this article, the entire range of ground shaking and the entire range of earthquake magnitude are considered and the liquefaction return period is evaluated based on the SPT and CPT data. This article explains the performance-based methodology for the liquefaction analysis – starting from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the evaluation of seismic hazard and the performance-based method to evaluate the liquefaction return period. A case study has been done for Bangalore, India, based on SPT data and converted CPT values. The comparison of results obtained from both the methods have been presented. In an area of 220 km2 in Bangalore city, the site class was assessed based on large number of borehole data and 58 Multi-channel analysis of surface wave survey. Using the site class and peak acceleration at rock depth from PSHA, the peak ground acceleration at the ground surface was estimated using probabilistic approach. The liquefaction analysis was done based on 450 borehole data obtained in the study area. The results of CPT match well with the results obtained from similar analysis with SPT data. 相似文献
5.
Seismic risk assessment of buildings in urban areas: a case study for Denizli,Turkey 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
This study aims to carry out a seismic risk assessment for a typical mid-size city based on building inventory from a field
study. Contributions were made to existing loss estimation methods for buildings. In particular, a procedure was introduced
to estimate the seismic quality of buildings using a scoring scheme for the effective parameters in seismic behavior. Denizli,
a typical mid-size city in Turkey, was used as a case study. The building inventory was conducted by trained observers in
a selected region of Denizli that had the potential to be damaged from expected future earthquakes according to geological
and geotechnical studies. Parameters that are known to have some effect on the seismic performance of the buildings during
past earthquakes were collected during the inventory studies. The inventory includes data of about 3,466 buildings on 4,226
parcels. The evaluation of inventory data provided information about the distribution of building stock according to structural
system, construction year, and vertical and plan irregularities. The inventory data and the proposed procedure were used to
assess the building damage, and to determine casualty and shelter needs during the M6.3 and 7.0 scenario earthquakes, representing
the most probable and maximum earthquakes in Denizli, respectively. The damage assessment and loss studies showed that significant
casualties and economic losses can be expected in future earthquakes. Seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete buildings
also revealed the priorities among building groups. The vulnerability in decreasing order is: (1) buildings with 6 or more
stories, (2) pre-1975 constructed buildings, and (3) buildings with 3–5 stories. The future studies for evaluating and reducing
seismic risk for buildings should follow this priority order. All data of inventory, damage, and loss estimates were assembled
in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database. 相似文献
6.
Vulnerability index and capacity spectrum based methods for urban seismic risk evaluation. A comparison 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
This article contributes to the development and application of two latest-generation methods of seismic risk analysis in urban
areas. The first method, namely vulnerability index method (VIM), considers five non-null damage states, defines the action
in terms of macroseismic intensity and the seismic quality of the building by means of a vulnerability index. The estimated
damage degree is measured by semi-empirical functions. The second method, namely capacity spectrum based method (CSBM), considers
four no damage states, defines the seismic action in terms of response spectra and the building vulnerability by means of
its capacity spectrum. In order to apply both methods to Barcelona (Spain) and compare the results, a deterministic and a
probabilistic hazard scenario with soil effects are used. The deterministic one corresponds to a historic earthquake, while
the probabilistic seismic ground motion has a probability of exceedence of 10% in 50 years. Detailed information on the building
design has been obtained along years by collecting, arranging, improving, and completing the database of the dwellings of
the city. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has been customized allowing storing, analysing, and displaying this large
amount of spatial and tabular data of dwellings. The obtained results are highly consistent with the historical and modern
evolution of the populated area and show the validity and strength of both methods. Although Barcelona has a low to moderate
seismic hazard, its expected seismic risk is significant because of the high vulnerability of its buildings. Cities such as
Barcelona, located in a low to moderate seismic hazard region, are usually not aware of the seismic risk. The detailed risk
maps obtained offer a great opportunity to guide the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation
in Barcelona, and for emergency planning in the city. 相似文献
7.
In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.
相似文献8.
In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging. 相似文献
9.
A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. 相似文献
10.
The use of the possibility theory to investigate the epistemic uncertainties within scenario-based earthquake risk assessments 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper presents a methodology to represent and propagate epistemic uncertainties within a scenario-based earthquake risk
model. Unlike randomness, epistemic uncertainty stems from incomplete, vague or imprecise information. This source of uncertainties
still requires the development of adequate tools in seismic risk analysis. We propose to use the possibility theory to represent
three types of epistemic uncertainties, namely imprecision, model uncertainty and vagueness due to qualitative information.
For illustration, an earthquake risk assessment for the city of Lourdes (Southern France) using this approach is presented.
Once adequately represented, uncertainties are propagated and they result in a family of probabilistic damage curves. The
latter is synthesized, using the concept of fuzzy random variables, by means of indicators bounding the true probability to
exceed a given damage grade. The gap between the pair of probabilistic indicators reflects the imprecise character of uncertainty
related to the model, thus picturing the extent of what is ignored and can be used in risk management. 相似文献
11.
抗震设防决策中的模糊信息处理 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
抗震设防决策过程中涉及到许多对整个分析过程都具有重要意义的模糊信息 ,本文提出一种结合模糊信息进行地震危险性概率分析与抗震设防决策的方法 ,介绍了用模糊集模拟模糊信息的原理 ,以及进一步处理模糊信息的区间分析顶点法。作为一例 ,这些方法结合基于泊松分布的地震烈度发生概率模型 ,应用于南京市区未来 5 0年的地震危险性与抗震设防效益分析 ,提供模糊的结论供设防决策参考。 相似文献
12.
Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima. 相似文献
13.
Shafiq Ur Rehman Muhammad Khalid Asif Ali Abd El-aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(9):3481-3492
Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s. 相似文献
14.
土石坝抗震安全的设计一般立足于预防结构的倒塌,如何使土石坝结构地震破损控制在可接受的风险水平是一个值得研究的重要课题。应用地震风险分析理论,建立了土石坝地震风险分析方法,包括地震危险性分析、地震易损性分析和地震灾害损失评估3个方面。在场地地震危险性分析基础上,将基于性能的抗震设计思想应用于土石坝结构地震易损性分析中,以土石坝坝顶相对沉陷为评价指标,划分土石坝震损等级,最后结合地震经济损失分析,建立了土石坝地震风险计算模型,在技术和经济上对土石坝地震破损风险进行分析计算。以某高土石坝为例,用该模型对大坝的震害和经济损失进行了预测分析,其结论可为土石坝安全评价及投资决策等提供依据。 相似文献
15.
A probabilistic model is presented to obtain a realistic estimate of earthquake insurance rates for reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey. The model integrates information on seismic hazard and information on expected earthquake damage on engineering facilities in a systematic way, yielding to estimates of earthquake insurance premiums. In order to demonstrate the application of the proposed probabilistic method, earthquake insurance rates are computed for reinforced concrete buildings constructed in five cities located in different seismic zones of Turkey. The resulting rates are compared with the rates currently charged by the insurance companies. The earthquake insurance rates are observed to be sensitive to the assumptions on seismic hazard and damage probability matrices and to increase significantly with increasing violation of the code requirements. 相似文献
16.
17.
Intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region occur in response to stress generation due to descending lithosphere
beneath the southeastern Carpathians. In this article, tectonic stress and seismicity are analyzed in the region on the basis
of a vast body of observations. We show a correlation between the location of intermediate-depth earthquakes and the predicted
localization of maximum shear stress in the lithosphere. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the region is
presented in terms of various ground motion parameters on the utilization of Fourier amplitude spectra used in engineering
practice and risk assessment (peak ground acceleration, response spectra amplitude, and seismic intensity). We review the
PSHA carried out in the region, and present new PSHA results for the eastern and southern parts of Romania. Our seismic hazard
assessment is based on the information about the features of earthquake ground motion excitation, seismic wave propagation
(attenuation), and site effect in the region. Spectral models and characteristics of site-response on earthquake ground motions
are obtained from the regional ground motion data including several hundred records of small and large earthquakes. Results
of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are consistent with the features of observed earthquake effects in the southeastern
Carpathians and show that geological factors play an important part in the distribution of the earthquake ground motion parameters. 相似文献
18.
This article presents the results of deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (DSHA and PSHA) of the city of Hamedan and its neighboring regions. This historical city is one of the developing cities located in the west of Iran. For this reason, the DSHA and PSHA approaches have been used for the assessment of seismic hazards and earthquake risk evaluation. To this purpose, analyses have been carried out considering the historic and instrumented earthquakes, geologic and seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 100?km, keeping Hamedan as the center. Therefore, in this research, we studied the main faults and fault zones in the study area and calculated the length and distance of faults from the center of Hamedan. In the next step, we measured the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) using both DSHA and PSHA approaches and utilized the various equations introduced by different researchers for this purpose. The results of DSHA approach show that the MCE-evaluated value is 7.2 Richter, which might be created by Nahavand fault activities in this region. The PGA value of 0.56?g will be obtained from Keshin fault. The results of PSHA approach show that the MCE-evaluated value is 7.6 Richter for a 0.64 probability in a 50-year period. The PGA value of 0.45?g will be obtained from Keshin fault. Seismic hazard parameters have been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using Gutenberg?CRichter relationship method. The ??a?? and ??b?? parameters were estimated 5.53 and 0.68, respectively. 相似文献
19.
Integrating long-term seismic risk changes into improving emergency response and land-use planning: a case study for the Hsinchu City, Taiwan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Hung-Chih Hung Ming-Chin Ho Yi-Jie Chen Chang-Yi Chian Su-Ying Chen 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):491-508
An increasing number of rapidly growing urban areas in Asia are becoming more vulnerable to seismic hazards in their development process. However, local authorities rarely integrate seismic risk into the procedure of emergency and land-use planning. This article explores the question of whether seismic risks for urban areas are increasing or diminishing over time, while trends such as population growth and land development in hazard-prone areas increase the potential for loss in disasters. The net effects of such urbanization factors are examined through the use of simulation models that estimate building inventory and seismic loss changes. Seismic losses are modeled for a comparative analysis under the same hypothetical earthquake events hitting at different points in a city area’s long-term development. A case study of seismic risk assessments is illustrated by the Hsinchu City, Taiwan. Results of a prospective analysis indicate that, for the same seismic events, overall risk is expected to increase due to a forecast 2.9 % growth in building inventory. This increment in loss is largely attributed to a large amount of initial buildings predicted to be developed into commercial and industrial uses. However, the spatial pattern of risk would change slightly; particularly, the southeastern, eastern, and some older core areas would be the most vulnerable and risky both at current and future time periods. The approach here enables city planners to incorporate seismic risk analysis into predisaster emergency and land-use planning to encourage risk-reduction strategies. 相似文献
20.
Kasım Armağan Korkmaz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,61(3):467-476
A significant proportion of the urban areas in Turkey is subject to high seismic risk. An important step for seismic risk
mitigation is to define the hazard and damage after an earthquake. This paper proposes an integrated seismic hazard assessment
and disaster management processes for Turkey. The proposed methodology utilizes information technologies in its seismic assessment
component that provides fast results for assessment. First, image process methodology by using satellite images was implemented
in the seismic assessment process for fast evaluation right after an earthquake. Second, the seismic assessment process was
integrated with disaster management process. As a result, through integrated seismic hazard evaluation and disaster management
procedure, an effective, fast and dependable estimation of loss for Turkey was planned. 相似文献