共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
A photochemical scheme which includes a detailed treatment of multiple scattering up to solar zenith angles of 96° (developed for use in a GCM) has been used to study partitioning within chemical families. Attention is drawn to the different zenith angle dependence of diffuse radiation for the two spectral regions <310 nm and >310 nm. The effect that this has on the so-called 40 km ozone problem is discussed. The importance of correctly including multiple scattering for polar ozone studies is emphasised. 相似文献
2.
G. S. GOLITSYN 《大气科学进展》2009,26(3):585-598
The goal of this paper is to quantitatively formulate some necessary conditions for the
development of intense atmospheric vortices. Specifically, these criteria are discussed for tropical
cyclones (TC) and polar lows (PL) by using bulk formulas for fluxes of momentum, sensible heating,
and latent heating between the ocean and the atmosphere. The velocity scale is used in two forms: (1)
as expressed through the buoyancy flux b and the Coriolis parameter lc for rotating fluids convection,
and (2) as expressed with the cube of velocity times the drag coefficient through the formula for
total kinetic energy dissipation in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the quasistationary case the
dissipation equals the generation of the energy. In both cases the velocity scale can be expressed
through temperature and humidity differences between the ocean and the atmosphere in terms of the
reduced gravity, and both forms produce quite comparable velocity scales. Using parameters b and lc,
we can form scales of the area and, by adding the mass of a unit air column, a scale of the total
kinetic energy as well. These scales nicely explain the much smaller size of a PL, as compared to
a TC, and the total kinetic energy of a TC is of the order 1018-1019 J. It will be shown
that wind of 33 m s-1 is produced when the total enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and the
atmosphere are about 700 W m-2 for a TC and 1700 W m-2 for a PL, in association with
the much larger role of the latent heat in the first case and the stricter geostrophic constraints
and larger static stability in the second case. This replaces the mystical role of 26oC as
a criterion for TC origin.
The buoyancy flux, a product of the reduced gravity and the wind speed, together with the atmospheric
static stability, determines the rate of the penetrating convection. It is known from the observations
that the formation time for a PL reaching an altitude of 5--6 km can be only a few hours, and a day, or
even half a day, for a TC reaching 15--18 km. These two facts allow us to construct curves on the plane
of Ts and ΔT=Ts-Ta to determine possibilities for forming an intense vortex. Here, Ta is the atmospheric temperature at the height z=10 m. A PL should have ΔT>20oC in accordance
with the observations and numerical simulations. The conditions for a TC are not so straightforward but
our diagram shows that the temperature difference of a few degrees, or possibly even a fraction of a
degree, might be sufficient for TC development for a range of static stabilities and development times. 相似文献
3.
G. S. GOLITSYN 《大气科学进展》2009,26(3)
The goal of this paper is to quantitatively formulate some necessary conditions for the development of intense atmospheric vortices. Specifically, these criteria are discussed for tropical cyclones (TC) and polar lows (PL) by using bulk formulas for fluxes of momentum, sensible heating, and latent heating between the ocean and the atmosphere. The velocity scale is used in two forms: (1) as expressed through the buoyancy flux b and the Coriolis parameter lc for rotating fluids convection, and (2) as expressed with the cube of velocity times the drag coefficient through the formula for total kinetic energy dissipation in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the quasistationary case the dissipation equals the generation of the energy. In both cases the velocity scale can be expressed through temperature and humidity differences between the ocean and the atmosphere in terms of the reduced gravity, and both forms produce quite comparable velocity scales. Using parameters b and lc., we can form scales of the area and, by adding the mass of a unit air column, a scale of the total kinetic energy as well. These scales nicely explain the much smaller size of a PL, as compared to a TC, and the total kinetic energy of a TC is of the order 1018 - 1019 J. It will be shown that wind of 33 m s-1 is produced when the total enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere are about 700 W m-2 for a TC and 1700 W m-2 for a PL, in association with the much larger role of the latent heat in the first case and the stricter geostrophic constraints and larger static stability in the second case. This replaces the mystical role of 26~C as a criterion for TC origin. The buoyancy flux, a product of the reduced gravity and the wind speed, together with the atmospheric static stability, determines the rate of the penetrating convection. It is known from the observations that the formation time for a PL reaching an altitude of 5-6 km can be only a few hours, and a day, or even half a day, for a TC reaching 15-18 km. These two facts allow us to construct curves on the plane of Ts and △T= Ts - Ta to determine possibilities for forming an intense vortex. Here, Ta is the atmospheric temperature at the height z = 10 m. A PL should have △T > 20℃ in accordance with the observations and numerical simulations. The conditions for a TC are not so straightforward but our diagram shows that the temperature difference of a few degrees, or possibly even a fraction of a degree, might be sufficient for TC development for a range of static stabilities and development times. 相似文献
4.
Ambrogio VOLONTé Mark MUETZELFELDT Reinhard SCHIEMANN Andrew G.TURNER Nicholas KLINGAMAN 《大气科学进展》2021,38(12):2082-2096
Large parts of East and South Asia were affected by heavy precipitation and flooding during early summer 2020. This study provides both a statistical and dynamical characterization of rains and floods affecting the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). By aggregating daily and monthly precipitation over river basins across Asia, it is shown that the YRB is one of the areas that was particularly affected. June and July 2020 rainfall was higher than in the previous 20 years, and the YRB experienced anomalously high rainfall across most of its sub-basins. YRB discharge also attained levels not seen since 1998/1999. An automated method detecting the daily position of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Front (EASMF) is applied to show that the anomalously high YRB precipitation was associated with a halted northward progression of the EASMF and prolonged mei-yu conditions over the YRB lasting more than one month. Two 5-day heavy-precipitation episodes (12?16 June and 4?8 July 2020) are selected from this period for dynamical characterization, including Lagrangian trajectory analysis. Particular attention is devoted to the dynamics of the airstreams converging at the EASMF. Both episodes display heavy precipitation and convergence of monsoonal and subtropical air masses. However, clear differences are identified in the upper-level flow pattern, substantially affecting the balance of airmass advection towards the EASMF. This study contextualizes heavy precipitation in Asia in summer 2020 and showcases several analysis tools developed by the authors for the study of such events. 相似文献
5.
Dr. T. Murakami 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1990,44(1-4):85-100
Summary Interannual modes are described in terms of three-month running mean anomaly winds (u,v), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and sea surface temperature (T
*
). Normal atmospheric monsoon circulations are defined by long-term average winds (u
n,v
n) computed every month from January to December. Daily winds are grouped into three frequency bands, i.e., 30–60 day filtered winds (u
L,v
L); 7–20 day filtered winds (u
M,v
M); and 2–6 day filtered winds (u
S,v
S). Three-month running mean anomaly kinetic energy (signified asK
L
, K
M
, andK
S
, respectively) is then introduced as a measure of interannual variation of equatorial disturbance activity. Interestingly, all of theseK
L
, K
M
, andK
S
perturbations propagate slowly eastward with same phase speed (0.3 ms–1) as ENSO modes. Associated with this eastward propagation is a positive (negative) correlation between interannual disturbance activity (K
L
, K
M
, K
S
) and interannualu (OLR) modes. Namely, (K
L
, K
M
, K
S
) becomes more pronounced than usual nearly simultaneously with the arrival of westerlyu and negativeOLR (above normal convection) perturbutions. In these disturbed areas with (K
L
, K
M
, K
S
>0), upper ocean mixing tends to increase, resulting in decreased sea surface temperature, i.e.T
*
0. Thus, groups (not individual) of equatorial disturbances appear to play an important role in determiningT
*
variations on interannual time scales. HighestT
*
occurs about 3 months prior to the lowestOLR (convection) due primarily to radiational effects. This favors the eastward propagation of ENSO modes. The interannualT
*
variations are also controlled by the prevailing monsoonal zonal windsu
n, as well as the zonal advection of sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. Over the central Pacific, all of the above mentioned physical processes contribute to the intensification of eastward propagating ENSO modes. Over the Indian Ocean, on the other hand, some of the physical processes become insignificant, or even compensated for by other processes. This results in less pronounced ENSO modes over the Indian Ocean.With 10 FiguresContribution No. 89-6, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii. 相似文献
6.
Marengo Jose A. Torres Roger Rodrigues Alves Lincoln Muniz 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1189-1200
This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.
相似文献7.
Gideon Calder 《Climatic change》2015,133(3):525-533
8.
Air,Water and Soil Environmental Pollution and Regulation Mechanisms in Beijing and Its Ambient Area
《中国气象科学研究院年报》2001,(1)
1 Physical and Chemical Structural Characteristics of Urban ABLObtained preliminarily the atmospheric dynamic structure of the urban ABL: Urban heat island and urban wind, the zero-plane displacement and roughness of urban building blocks, the distribution and dynamic and thermal impacts of urban fog. In the aspect of city-scale simulation research, the effect of the topography around the outskirts of Beijing on the urban wind field and the effect of buildings on the urban atmospheric circulation are studied. The possible influencing mechanisms of the U-shaped mountains to the west and north of Beijing on the daily variation of the urban wind field, and the formation, transport and cumulation of urban pollutants are analyzed and some distribution charts are obtained. 相似文献
9.
The question of whether and to what extent global warming may be changing tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of great interest
to decision makers. The presence of a possible climate change signal in TC activity is difficult to detect because interannual
variability necessitates analysis over longer time periods than available data allow. Projections of future TC activity are
hindered by computational limitations and uncertainties about changes in regional climate, large scale patterns, and TC response.
This review discusses the state of the field in terms of theory, modeling studies and data. While Atlantic TCs have recently
become more intense, evidence for changes in other basins is not persuasive, and changes in the Atlantic cannot be clearly
attributed to either natural variability or climate change. However, whatever the actual role of climatic change, these concerns
have opened a “policy window” that, if used appropriately, could lead to improved protection against TCs. 相似文献
10.
11.
Empirical equations relating runoff,maximum river stageand peak flow to rainfall were developed for the Tao riverdrainage basin at Li Jia Cun.A basin recession curve wasderived and a frequency analysis of extreme flood events wasconducted.Results showed that storm runoff was highlycorrelated with rainfall.However,maximum river stage andpeak flow were not as well correlated with rainfall.It wasfound necessary to separate rainfall into stratiform andconvective types.The magnitudes of the once-in-50 year,once-in-100 year and once-in-200 year events,calculated by thelog Pearson type Ⅲ distribution were closely equal to thoseestimated from a log-probability graph.Recommendations forimproving the predictive ability of the empirical equations arepresented. 相似文献
12.
Karen Akerlof Edward W. Maibach Dennis Fitzgerald Andrew Y. Cedeno Amanda Neuman 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):81-91
For most people, the direct and personally observable signals of climate change should be difficult to detect amid the variability of everyday weather. Yet, previous research has shown that some people believe they have personally experienced global warming. Through four related studies, our paper sheds light on what signals of global warming some people believe they are detecting, why, and whether or not it matters. These studies were conducted using population survey and climatic data from a single county in Michigan. Study 1 found that 27% of the county's adult residents felt that they had personally experienced global warming. Study 2 – based on content analysis of people's open-ended responses – found that the most frequently described personal experiences of global warming were changes in seasons (36%), weather (25%), lake levels (24%), animals and plants (20%), and snowfall (19%). Study 3 – based on NOAA climatic data – found that most, but not all, of these detected signals are borne out in the climatic record. Study 4 – using the survey data – found that personal experience of global warming matters in that it predicts perceptions of local risk of global warming, controlling for demographics, political affiliation, and cultural beliefs about national policy outcomes. We conclude that perceived personal experience of global warming appears to heighten people's perception of the risks, likely through some combination of direct experience, vicarious experience (e.g., news media stories), and social construction. 相似文献
13.
14.
As managed retreat programs expand across the globe, there is an urgent need to assess whether these programs are reducing exposure to climatic hazards, enhancing adaptive capacity, and improving the living conditions of communities in a just and equitable manner or are they exacerbating existing risks and vulnerabilities? Strictly speaking, are retreat programs successful? Using an expansive intersectional justice approach to examine 138 post-resettlement case studies published between 2000 and 2021 across the Global North and South, we identified five typologies of success – techno-managerial, eco-restorative, compensatory, reformative, and transformative – and their trade-offs and synergies. Our meta-analysis incorporated a variety of metrics: relocation types, funding, decision making, socio-economic class, land use change, livelihood options, and social impacts. We found 26% of cases failed, 43% were successful, and 30% are on-going and therefore success was undetermined. The techno-managerial cases, while successful in the limited terms of relocating residents, paid little attention to equity and justice. The eco-restorative and compensatory cases reduced hazard exposure but revealed the synergies and tensions associated with social, ecological, and intergenerational justice. The reformative and transformative cases improved community wellbeing, rootedness, and access to livelihoods while incorporating diverse justice concerns to different degrees. By intersecting these typologies with multiple dimensions of justice, this study advances a novel planning and analytical tool for assessing the potential success or failure of current and future retreat programs. 相似文献
15.
16.
The objective of this paper is to better understand the various individual and household factors that influence resilience, that is, people⬢s ability to respond adequately to shocks and stressors. One of our hypotheses is that resilience does not simply reflect the expected effects of quantifiable factors such as level of assets, or even less quantifiable social processes such as people⬢s experience, but is also determined by more subjective dimensions related to people⬢s perceptions of their ability to cope, adapt or transform in the face of adverse events. Data collected over two years in Fiji, Ghana, Sri Lanka and Vietnam confirms the importance of wealth in the recovery process of households affected by shocks and stressors. However our results challenge the idea that within communities, assets are a systematic differentiator in people⬢s response to adverse events. The findings regarding social capital are mixed and call for more research: social capital had a strong positive influence on resilience at the community level, yet our analysis failed to demonstrate any tangible positive correlation at the household level. Finally, the data confirm that, like vulnerability, resilience is at least in part socially constructed, endogenous to individual and groups, and hence contingent on knowledge, attitudes to risk, culture and subjectivity. 相似文献
17.
《Climate Policy》2002,2(1):35-49
This paper examines three issues in quantifying project-level emissions reductions (ERs): baseline and additionality determination, leakage assessment, and measurement of net emissions. It finds no systematic differences between land use change and forestry (LUCF) and energy projects in addressing these issues. Rather, the ease of quantification depends on the following:
- •The level and distribution of direct financial benefits that result from the project, since this is a key determinant of additionality.
- •The degree to which the project is integrated with a broader physical and economic system, since this determines the amount of leakage.
- •The internal homogeneity and geographic dispersion of the project components—a key determinant of measurement costs.
18.
Abstract Two years of subtidal sea‐level data from Nain, Labrador, are analysed in terms of local atmospheric pressure and the two components of geostrophic wind or stress. Frequency‐dependent response coefficients are determined by multiple regression analysis involving inversion of the cross‐spectral matrix of the inputs. At very low frequencies the response to pressure is isostatic and the wind stress coefficients are consistent with those determined by Thompson et al. (1985) from analysis of a longer series of monthly means. There is very little change in the response between icy and ice‐free seasons. The wind, or stress, coefficients correspond to geostrophic set‐up by a narrow longshore current but do not show as much of an increase of phase lag with increasing frequency as expected. The pressure response is less than isostatic and lags as the frequency increases from zero to about 0.02 cph. Possible reasons for this are discussed. Removal of wind as well as pressure effects ffom the sea‐level data makes only minor changes to the monthly mean residual sea‐level. 相似文献
19.
Are violent conflict and socio-political stability associated with changes in climatological variables? We examine 50 rigorous quantitative studies on this question and find consistent support for a causal association between climatological changes and various conflict outcomes, at spatial scales ranging from individual buildings to the entire globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an anomalous millennium. Multiple mechanisms that could explain this association have been proposed and are sometimes supported by findings, but the literature is currently unable to decisively exclude any proposed pathway. Several mechanisms likely contribute to the outcomes that we observe. 相似文献