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1.
近50年来长江与鄱阳湖水文相互作用的变化 总被引：13，自引：2，他引：11
通过分析1957-2008 年长江与鄱阳湖相互作用的基本特征及其与长江中游、鄱阳湖流域的径流量和气候变化的关系,并用2004-2006 年三峡水库蓄水、放水量的数据,定量地计算和比较了三峡水库运行和区域气候变化对长江与鄱阳湖相互作用的影响程度,得出如下主要结论：1)从年际、年代际尺度上来看,鄱阳湖流域的气候变化和五河入湖流量是鄱阳湖水位和水量变化的主要因素,同时也在很大程度上决定了长江与鄱阳湖相互作用关系及其强弱变化。2) 长江与鄱阳湖的相互作用强度是此消彼长的关系。从季节来看,鄱阳湖对长江的较强作用主要在4-6月,而长江对鄱阳湖的较强作用主要发生在7-9 月。3) 三峡水库运行并没有改变长江与鄱阳湖作用的基本特征,在多数季节三峡水库的影响不足以解释长江径流量变化的10%,但是水库在不同季节的蓄水或放水在一定程度上影响了江湖作用的季节变化和鄱阳湖流域的旱涝机率。4-6月的放水加强了长江作用,由于此时正值鄱阳湖流域的雨季,增强的长江作用在湿润气候的环境下可能增加初夏鄱阳湖流域发生洪涝的概率;7-9 月的少量蓄水则减弱长江对鄱阳湖的作用,降低了湖区洪涝的概率;而10 月份三峡水库的大量蓄水可能增加鄱阳湖流域的旱季干旱发生率。 相似文献
2.
洞庭湖与长江水体交换能力演变及对三峡水库运行的响应 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
运用洞庭湖区与长江干流相关控制站1951-2010 年实测水文数据, 在分析江湖水力关系的基础上, 从不同时间尺度分析江湖水体交换能力的演变特征及其对三峡水库运行的响应。结果表明:① 7-9 月长江荆南三口对洞庭湖的补给能力较强, 1-3 月洞庭湖对长江的补给能力较强;② 江湖水体交换系数具有明显的年代际波动, 其中1951-1958 年、1959-1968 年荆南三口对湖泊的补给能力较强, 而2003-2010 年湖泊对长江的补给能力增强;③ 三峡水库运行后无论是典型年还是在水库不同调度方式运行期, 三口分泄能力减弱, 入湖水量减少, 而因四水入湖水量占绝对优势, 湖泊对长江的补给能力明显增强;④ 尽管影响江湖水体交换能力的因素极为复杂, 但从总体上讲, 除受流域降水波动影响外, 江湖水体交换能力在不同时间尺度上的演变特征及其过程均随着江湖水体交换量的变化而变化, 说明江湖水体交换能力强度与江湖水体交换量之间存在着彼此消长的关系。 相似文献
3.
人类活动对鄱阳湖泥沙收支平衡的影响 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
以鄱阳湖流域内的赣江、抚河、信江、饶河和修水（五河）和鄱阳湖为研究对象,利用水文控制站的水文资料,分析了各流域内主要河流的入湖泥沙和鄱阳湖出湖泥沙特征,对鄱阳湖泥沙收支平衡进行了分析。结果表明：① 1955~2010年五河总入湖泥沙811.69 Mt,其中赣江（占59.7%）>信江（占13.7%）>修河（占10.2%）>抚河（占9.7%）>饶河（占6.7%）;② 径流量是影响入湖输沙量的最主要因素,入湖泥沙与入湖径流的季节特征一致;③ 水库的蓄水拦沙作用是五河入湖泥沙下降的主要原因,但水库对入湖泥沙的影响强度与水库库容和集水区的植被覆盖状况有关;植被覆盖变化对赣江、抚河、饶河和修河的入湖输沙量的影响明显;④ 1955~2010年,鄱阳湖总出湖泥沙560.10 Mt,其中1955~2000年出湖泥沙量呈降低趋势,但受鄱阳湖采砂影响,2001年以来出湖泥沙显著增加;丰水季长江水对鄱阳湖的顶托和倒灌,使出湖泥沙与出湖径流在时间上不同步;三峡工程的运行改变了（长）江（鄱阳）湖之间的水动力关系,长江倒灌泥沙显著减少;⑤ 受鄱阳湖采砂的影响,鄱阳湖泥沙平衡系统由净沉积转变为净侵蚀,1955~2000年入湖泥沙大于出湖泥沙,年均泥沙沉积约为1.41 mm;2001~2010年出湖泥沙大于入湖泥沙,加上采砂输出沙量,2001~2010年鄱阳湖泥沙净减少2 213.65 Mt。 相似文献
4.
辽宁中部城市群城市体系中规模与距离关系的研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
以城市人口规模、城市间距离为指标,通过多元回归模型,定量分析辽宁中部城市群中城市规模与空间距离的关系,以及城市与“最近城市”的距离和“距离位序”之间是否存在类似“城市位序-规模律”的定量关系。研究发现：① 城市i的规模Pi与“最近城市”n的规模Pn、距离Di-n以及区域中心城市c的距离Di-c有关,与首位城市的规模和距离无关,其中Pn、Di-n为正向影响,Di-c为负向影响。就影响力而言,区域中心城市c的影响大于“最近城市”n,这一点区别于国内其他城市群。② 城市群中存在“城市距离-位序律”的定量关系。③ 利用城市规模与距离的定量关系可以测算理论人口规模和影响范围,为辽宁中部城市群的人口预测和空间结构划分提供有益参考。 相似文献
5.
HIMS模型参数的不确定性及其影响因素 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
模型参数的不确定性及影响因素分析对无资料流域水文预报具有重要意义。本文以澳大利亚3 个流域为例,采用GLUE方法分析HIMS模型参数的不确定性,在此基础上探讨流域物理属性对参数取值的影响。研究发现:① HIMS模型9个参数的不确定性都比较大,属于敏感参数;② 降雨量、森林覆盖度和表层土壤最大有效蓄水量大的流域,土壤蓄水容量Wsm取值大;土壤饱和导水率和森林覆盖度高的流域,产流系数R、r的取值较大;温度低、森林覆盖度小的流域,实际蒸散发系数ε取值大;易透水、森林覆盖度高的流域,马斯京根汇流系数C2取值大。这些结论能为今后在无资料流域应用HIMS模型进行水文预报提供一定参考。 相似文献
6.
长江干流河道对流域输沙的调节作用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用长江干流和主要支流上测站1956~2004年的输沙量资料,对干流未测区域的来沙进行了估计。根据泥沙平衡 (Sediment budget) 概念,对长江干流河道的冲淤对来水来沙的响应以及对入海泥沙的影响进行研究发现,长江干流屏山至大通河道平均淤积速率为88.58×106 t/a,河道淤积占总的来沙量及大通站输沙量比例分别为14%与21%。由于河道淤积,大通站输沙量减少了17.5%。总体来说上游淤积较轻,宜昌至汉口区间淤积严重,汉口至大通区间为微冲。长江干流的河道冲淤与流域总的来沙具有显著的相关关系,但各段河道的冲淤对流域来沙的响应各不一样。上游的冲淤与流域的径流量和来沙量均没有很好的相关性,宜昌-汉口段河道冲淤的变化与宜昌站的来沙具有显著的相关性;影响汉口-大通间河道的冲淤变化的主要因素是流域的来水量,河道的冲淤与大通站径流量的存在显著的负相关关系。三峡水库蓄水后整个长江干流的冲淤形势发生了根本的变化。三峡水库的蓄水运用有效地减轻了洞庭湖的泥沙淤积,同时也降低了洞庭湖的对长江干流泥沙的调节作用;长江上游干流河道淤积增强,中下游河道出现冲刷,但不同的河段表现不一;中下游河道冲刷量小于预测值,三峡水库的蓄水运用直接导致了长江入海泥沙的减少。 相似文献
7.
论文基于长江上游271个气象站点1961—2017年逐日降水量数据及三峡水库日入库流量资料,辅以差异t检验、合成分析、相关分析和聚类分析等方法,就长江上游降水对三峡水库入库流量的影响进行了分析,结果表明：① 三峡水库蓄水期关键月的入库流量受同年8月及9月的降水影响最为明显;② 依据降水特征将长江上游进行分区的结果是在沿江及以南遵循自然流域划分,长江以北则不同,6个区分别为：I区(嘉陵江流域南部)、II区(金沙江上游、岷沱江北部、嘉陵江北部)、III区(重庆—宜昌)、IV区(乌江)、V区(宜宾—重庆)、VI区(金沙江流域中下游);③ 6个区对三峡水库蓄水关键月的入库流量贡献：I区和III区的降水量最大,汇流距离短,相较其他4个区,贡献最大;II区站点稀疏,降水量最少,汇流距离长,贡献最小;其他3个区(IV、V、VI区)贡献相近;④ 分析2003年以来蓄水期遭遇的3次流量峰值超50000 m3/s的洪水过程,其中2014年9月11—18日I区出现连续强降水,同时叠加III区过程性强降水,导致了19—20日三峡水库入库出现超过50000 m3/s的超大洪峰,证实了I区和III区降水对三峡入库流量的高贡献影响分析结论可靠,该结论也对三峡水库合理蓄水调度具有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
8.
社会—生态脆弱性相互关系的计量推断方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文在系统分析社会生态脆弱性综合方法研究进展后指出,综合指数法可作为代表某时期在社会和生态脆弱性两方面的指标,解释总体水平下的脆弱性等级,但无法反映指标间相互影响的程度和影响方向;相关系数分析能解释两指标间的相互关系,但无法解释其因果关系;由最小二乘法得到的解释指标变动系数,但由于解释指标和被解释指标选择的主观性,其相互作用的方向性仍无法判断。针对上述关系计量推断中存在的问题,本文探讨了工具变量估计参数的可行性,通过实例证实该方法能揭示社会脆弱性和生态系统脆弱性指标之间相互影响的方向。结果表明,社会脆弱性(SoVI)对生态脆弱性(NPPI)的影响强度大于反方向的影响作用,从1980 s到2000 s,NPPI对SoVI的作用由强减弱,其作用显著省区由5个减少至2个;而SoVI对NPPI的作用由弱增强,其作用显著省区由1个增加为7个。定量且具备相互影响方向的推断方法有利于揭示社会系统和生态系统相互作用的机理。 相似文献
9.
近10 年来长江口水下三角洲的冲淤变化 ——-兼论三峡工程蓄水的影响 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
根据对近10 年来长江入海泥沙量和河口冲淤的对比分析, 探讨水下三角洲冲淤对长江入海泥沙锐减以及三峡工程运行的响应。结果表明: (1) 三峡水库蓄水导致长江入海泥沙减少1×108 t/a 量级; (2) 1995-2000 年、2000-2004 年和2004-2005 年研究区淤积(冲刷) 面积分别占75.5% (24.5%)、30.5% (69.5%) 和14% (86%), 垂向冲淤速率(负为冲刷) 分别为6.4 cm/a、-3.8 cm/a 和-21 cm/a。(3) 由于地形和水动力的变化以及工程的影响, 研究区内冲淤对河流来沙减少的响应存在显著空间差异。结论包括: 三峡水库蓄水加剧了长江入海泥沙的减少; 入海泥沙的锐减是水下三角洲从淤积为主向侵蚀为主转变的主要原因。随着水库拦沙能力的增强等流域人类活动的影响, 长江入海泥沙将进一步下降, 河口口门区的冲刷可能加剧, 值得有关部门重视。 相似文献
10.
长江中下游夏季降水变化与亚洲夏季风系统的关系 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
以长江中下游流域实测降水数据和亚洲季风指数为基础,采用Mann-Kendall检验、线性相关和偏相关分析、小波分析等方法,揭示长江中下游夏季降水的时空变化特征及其与亚洲季风系统之间的相互关系和影响差异。结果表明,近50 a来长江中下游夏季降水量呈显著的增加趋势,其与亚洲主要夏季风指数之间均呈负的线性相关关系,且显著性影响范围东亚夏季风大于南海夏季风大于南亚夏季风。不同亚洲夏季风子系统间存在复杂的相互作用关系,尤其是东亚夏季风和南海夏季风之间的相互作用对长江中下游夏季降水产生了重要影响。长江中下游夏季降水量与亚洲主要夏季风指数存在2~4 a时间尺度上的显著相关性,且以反位相关系为主。此外,长江中下游夏季降水量与东亚夏季风的相干性最为突出,在小于8 a的时间尺度上,两者之间的相关性在近50 a来呈现减弱的趋势,特别是自20世纪80年代中后期以来。 相似文献
11.
鄱阳湖流域水文变化特征成因及旱涝规律 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7
本研究分析了1960-2008年鄱阳湖流域的气候和水文变化特征,用水量和能量平衡关系解释和印证了这些特征,并由此揭示了鄱阳湖流域水文变化特征的成因及干旱和洪涝发生的规律.得到以下主要结论:1)正常或偏湿年份鄱阳湖流域6月份容纳水量能力已达到饱和,若6-7月降水量超出正常年份,则流域超饱和,洪涝发生.长江中上游降水量7月份的异常偏多会对鄱阳湖流域的洪涝起触发和强化作用.2)鄱阳湖流域7-10月蒸发量大于降水量,特别是7-8月蒸发量大于降水量的一倍以上,所以若4-6月流域降水量少于平均年同期量的20％以上,则累积效应使秋旱发生.当初冬(11月)降水偏少时,秋旱可持续到来年的初春,形成严重的春旱.长江中上游降水量对鄱阳湖流域的春旱没有直接影响,但7-8月降水量偏少时则对秋旱起重要的强化作用.3)长江对鄱阳湖流域的水文过程和旱涝的发生、发展的影响主要在7-8月的“长江与鄱阳湖耦合作用”时期和9-10月的“弱长江作用”期. 相似文献
12.
The complex relationship between the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake controls the exchange of water and sediment between the two,and exerts effects on water resources,flooding,shipping,and the ecological environment.The theory of energy is applied in this paper to investigate the physical mechanisms that determine the nature of the contact between the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake and to establish an energy differenceindex to quantify the interactions between the two systems.Data show that Fe values for this interaction have increased since the 1950s,indicating a weakening in the river effect while the lake effect has been enhanced.Enclosure of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)has also significantly influenced the relationship between the river and the lake by further reducing the impacts of the Yangtze River.The river effect also increases slightly during the dry season,and decreases significantly at the end of the flooding period,while interactions between the two to some extent influence the development of droughts and floods within the lake area.Data show that when the flow of the five rivers within this area is significant and a blocking effect due to the Yangtze River is also clearly apparent,floods occur easily;in contrast,when the opposite is true and the flow of the five rivers is small,and the Yangtze River can accommodate the flow,droughts occur frequently.Construction and enclosure of the TGR also means that the lake area is prone to droughts during September and October. 相似文献
13.
Applying energy theory to understand the relationship between the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The complex relationship between the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake controls the exchange of water and sediment between the two, and exerts effects on water resources, flooding, shipping, and the ecological environment. The theory of energy is applied in this paper to investigate the physical mechanisms that determine the nature of the contact between the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake and to establish an energy difference (Fe) index to quantify the interactions between the two systems. Data show that Fe values for this interaction have increased since the 1950s, indicating a weakening in the river effect while the lake effect has been enhanced. Enclosure of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) has also significantly influenced the relationship between the river and the lake by further reducing the impacts of the Yangtze River. The river effect also increases slightly during the dry season, and decreases significantly at the end of the flooding period, while interactions between the two to some extent influence the development of droughts and floods within the lake area. Data show that when the flow of the five rivers within this area is significant and a blocking effect due to the Yangtze River is also clearly apparent, floods occur easily; in contrast, when the opposite is true and the flow of the five rivers is small, and the Yangtze River can accommodate the flow, droughts occur frequently. Construction and enclosure of the TGR also means that the lake area is prone to droughts during September and October. 相似文献
14.
三峡工程建设背景下的洞庭湖区治水方略探讨 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
在长江三峡工程建设的大背景下,本文分析了洞庭湖区的水灾减灾机制,探讨了洞庭湖区的治水方略,提出应充分发挥三峡水库的调蓄功能,协调江湖关系,改善冲淤关系,加强水利工程建设,实现三峡水库与湖南四水水库的优化调度 相似文献
15.
CHANG Jiang LI Jingbao LU Dianqing ZHU Xiang LU Chengzhi ZHOU Yueyun DENG Chuxiong 《地理学报》2010,20(5):771-786
Based on the measured hydrological data from 1951 to 2008, the chain hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake is analyzed by comparative method after the Three Gorges Project operation. The result indicates that 1) the scouring amount in Jingjiang River made up 78.9% of the total from Yichang to Chenglingji, and its average scouring intensity was higher than the latter; 2) the water and sand diversion rates at the three outlets of the Jingjiang River were reduced by 2.33% and 2.78% separately; 3) the proportion of multi-year average runoff and sediment through the three outlets in the total into the Dongting Lake decreased by 7.7% and 24.4% respectively; 4) in Dongting Lake, the speed of sediment accumulation was lowered by 26.7%, in flood season, the runoff amount was 20.2% less than the multi-year average value, leading to seasonal scarcity of water year by year. The former prolonged the lake life, while the latter induced droughts in summer and fall in successive years, shortage of drinking and industrial water, shipping insecurity, as well as ecological problems such as decrease of birds and quick increase of Microtus fortis; 5) The multi-year average values of sediment and flood transporting capacity at the lake outlet were respectively increased by 26.6% and 3.7%, the embankments were protected effectively. Then, to adapt to the new change of the river-lake relation, some suggestions were put forward, such as optimizing further operation program of the Three Gorges Reservoir, reexamining the idea of river and lake regulation, and maintaining connection of the river and the lake. 相似文献
16.
The hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake during the initial period of Three Gorges Project operation 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Jiang Chang Jingbao Li Dianqing Lu Xiang Zhu Chengzhi Lu Yueyun Zhou Chuxiong Deng 《地理学报(英文版)》2010,20(5):771-786
Based on the measured hydrological data from 1951 to 2008, the chain hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting
Lake is analyzed by comparative method after the Three Gorges Project operation. The result indicates that 1) the scouring
amount in Jingjiang River made up 78.9% of the total from Yichang to Chenglingji, and its average scouring intensity was higher
than the latter; 2) the water and sand diversion rates at the three outlets of the Jingjiang River were reduced by 2.33% and
2.78% separately; 3) the proportion of multi-year average runoff and sediment through the three outlets in the total into
the Dongting Lake decreased by 7.7% and 24.4% respectively; 4) in Dongting Lake, the speed of sediment accumulation was lowered
by 26.7%, in flood season, the runoff amount was 20.2% less than the multi-year average value, leading to seasonal scarcity
of water year by year. The former prolonged the lake life, while the latter induced droughts in summer and fall in successive
years, shortage of drinking and industrial water, shipping insecurity, as well as ecological problems such as decrease of
birds and quick increase of Microtus fortis; 5) The multi-year average values of sediment and flood transporting capacity at the lake outlet were respectively increased
by 26.6% and 3.7%, the embankments were protected effectively. Then, to adapt to the new change of the river-lake relation,
some suggestions were put forward, such as optimizing further operation program of the Three Gorges Reservoir, reexamining
the idea of river and lake regulation, and maintaining connection of the river and the lake. 相似文献
17.
《地理学报(英文版)》2010,(5)
Based on the measured hydrological data from 1951 to 2008,the chain hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake is analyzed by comparative method after the Three Gorges Project operation.The result indicates that 1) the scouring amount in Jingjiang River made up 78.9% of the total from Yichang to Chenglingji,and its average scouring intensity was higher than the latter;2) the water and sand diversion rates at the three outlets of the Jingjiang River were reduced by 2.33% and 2.78% separately;3) the proportion of multi-year average runoff and sediment through the three outlets in the total into the Dongting Lake decreased by 7.7% and 24.4% respectively;4) in Dongting Lake,the speed of sediment accumulation was lowered by 26.7%,in flood season,the runoff amount was 20.2% less than the multi-year average value,leading to seasonal scarcity of water year by year.The former prolonged the lake life,while the latter induced droughts in summer and fall in successive years,shortage of drinking and industrial water,shipping insecurity,as well as ecological problems such as decrease of birds and quick increase of Microtus fortis;5) The multi-year average values of sediment and flood transporting capacity at the lake outlet were respectively increased by 26.6% and 3.7%,the embankments were protected effectively.Then,to adapt to the new change of the river-lake relation,some suggestions were put forward,such as optimizing further operation program of the Three Gorges Reservoir,reexamining the idea of river and lake regulation,and maintaining connection of the river and the lake. 相似文献
18.
The geological and meteorological setting of the Jianghan–Dongting lake area leads to high precipitation and siltation, but poor water discharge, thus the area is frequently flooded. In the past the river–lake relationship of the Middle Yangtze has been variable but has deteriorated recently under increasing human influence. The Jianghan Plain of the Middle Yangtze becomes a waterlogged lowland under the constant threat of flooding from the perched Jingjiang River. Due to siltation and land reclamation the Dongting Lake has lost most of its regulatory function for the river and has become increasingly vulnerable to flood disasters. The Middle Yangtze River has been undergoing siltation, resulting from a downstream decline of sediment transport capacity, resulting in the elevation of the flood level above the lowlands. Heightening of the levees has caused further siltation of the channel.The Three Gorges Reservoir will provide a buffering period of 50–80 years, during which much of the silt will be trapped in the reservoir and scouring downstream may occur. We should utilize this period to work out an overall resolution to the problem. Construction of a water and silt diversion project in the Honghu Lake and surrounding areas may resolve this problem in the dangerous Chenglingji–Wuhan Segment of the Yangtze. Widening the canals connecting the Middle Yangtze and Han Rivers may function as a discharge-dividing channel of the Yangtze, which may prove to be beneficial. 相似文献