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1.
This paper describes the latest progress of a collaborative research program entitled "Modeling Aerosol Climate Effects over Monsoon Asia", under the Climate Sciences agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(in the early 1980 s, Professor Duzheng YE played a critical role in leading and formalizing the agreement). Here, the rationale and approach for pursuing the program, the participants, and research activities of recent years are first described, and then the highlights of the program's key findings and relevant scientific issues, as well as follow-up studies, are presented and discussed. 相似文献
2.
Pathways of Influence of the Northern Hemisphere Mid–high Latitudes on East Asian Climate: A Review 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
This paper reviews recent progress made by Chinese scientists on the pathways of influence of the Northern Hemisphere mid–high latitudes on East Asian climate within the framework of a "coupled oceanic–atmospheric(land–atmospheric or seaice–atmospheric) bridge" and "chain coupled bridge". Four major categories of pathways are concentrated upon, as follows:Pathway A—from North Atlantic to East Asia; Pathway B—from the North Pacific to East Asia; Pathway C—from the Arctic to East Asia; and Pathway D—the synergistic effects of the mid–high latitudes and tropics. In addition, definitions of the terms "combined effect", "synergistic effect" and "antagonistic effect" of two or more factors of influence or processes and their criteria are introduced, so as to objectively investigate those effects in future research. 相似文献
3.
Congbin FU 《大气科学进展》2017,34(10):1159-1168
To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including:(1) the role of climate change in global change;(2) the critical time scales and predictability of global change;(3) the sensitive regions of global change—transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and(4) orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change. 相似文献
4.
《Global Environmental Change》2000,10(2):109-120
This paper identifies challenges inherent in addressing multi-scale environmental problems, and outlines tentative guidelines for addressing such challenges and linking science and policy across scales. The study and practice of environmental assessment and management increasingly recognize the importance of scale and cross-scale dynamics in understanding and addressing global environmental change. These ongoing efforts, however, lack a systematic way of thinking about and addressing the challenges involved in integrating science and policy across multiple scales, for example, in the design of policy-relevant, scientific assessments of problems such as climate change. These challenges include matching scales of biogeophysical systems with scales of management systems, avoiding scale discordance (matching the scale of the assessment with the scale of management), and accounting for cross-scale dynamics. In this paper we propose tentative guidelines for meeting such challenges for both assessors and decision-makers: (1) utilize boundary organizations — institutions which serve to mediate between scientists and decision-makers, and between these actors at different scales; (2) utilize scale-dependent comparative advantages — coordinating the allocation of resources, technical expertise, and decision-making authority to best capitalize on scale-specific capabilities; and (3) employ adaptive assessment and management strategies — constructing long-term, iterative, experiment-based processes of integrated assessment and management. 相似文献
5.
Robert H. Socolow 《Climatic change》2011,108(4):775-790
This article is one of several in this special double-issue that reports the views of “users” of IPCC reports. I am a user
in the sense that I advise the policy-making community and rely on the IPCC reports to provide me with authoritative views
on the state of the science. My principal recommendation for making the IPCC more helpful to the policy-making community is
to strive in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) to communicate fully what the climate science community understands and does
not understand about high-consequence outcomes. This will require the AR5 authors to provide vivid information about future
worlds where high-consequence outcomes have emerged. It will also require the AR5 authors to reveal any disagreements persisting
among them after the give-and-take of the writing process has run its course. In the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) the presentation
of high-consequence outcomes had shortcomings that can be rectified in AR5. 相似文献
6.
The formation of tropical cyclones 总被引：17，自引：1，他引：16
Prof. Dr. W. M. Gray 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1998,67(1-4):37-69
Summary This paper attempts a synthesis of new observations and new concepts on how tropical cyclone formation occurs. Despite many worthy observational and numerical modeling studies in recent decades, our understanding of the detailed physical processes associated with the early stages of tropical cyclone formation is still inadequate; operational forecast skill is not very high. Although theoretical ideas cover a wide range of possibilities, results of new observations are helping us to narrow our search into more specific and relevant topic areas.With 33 FiguresPrologueThis paper is dedicated to Professor Herbert Riehl under whom I studied tropical meteorology at the University of Chicago from 1957–1961 and was later associated with at Colorado State University (CSU). Professor Riehl arranged my first aircraft flights into hurricanes in the late 1950s and gave great encouragment to me to explore the secrets of what causes a tropical disturbance to be transformed into a tropical storm.Herbert would persist in asking me nearly every week or so what causes a hurricane to form? I and my graduate students and research colleagues at CSU have been working to uncover the secrets of tropical cyclone formation ever since. The following article gives my current best estimate of the primary physical processes involved with this topic. 相似文献
7.
This paper provides an overview of the impacts of the original works of Professor Duzheng YE on a selected set of observational and model studies with which the present author has been associated over the past several decades. The main themes of these works include atmospheric energy dispersion, air–land interactions over the Tibetan Plateau, and El Ni n?orelated air–sea coupling over East Asia.The dispersive behavior of observed atmospheric fluctuations accompanying cold surge events in East Asia is demonstrated. Cold air outbreaks over Korea and southern China are coincident with the successive downstream development of troughs and ridges, with the group velocity of such wave packets being notably faster than the phase propagation speed of individual troughs and ridges. In a more general context, dispersive features are also discernible from lagged teleconnection charts and cross-spectra of observed and model-simulated geopotential height variations on 10–30-day time scales.Using the output from a high-resolution general circulation model, the relative contributions of condensational, sensible, and radiative heating to the atmospheric energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau are documented. The rapid changes of the upper tropospheric Tibetan anticyclone and East Asian mei-yu("plum rain") precipitation band associated with the development of the Asian monsoon system are described.The principal anomalies in sea level pressure, surface wind, precipitation and sea surface temperature over southeastern China and the Philippine Sea region during El Nio events are presented. The contributions of remote El Nio-related forcing and local air–sea interaction to the occurrence of these anomalies are assessed. 相似文献
8.
Experimentation has emerged as an important strategy of climate governance, and China, with a distinctive experiment-based policy process, is a leading example of a state-led and coordinated approach to low-carbon experimentation. Through a case study of the photovoltaics poverty alleviation (PVPA) initiative—an ambitious and experimental programme that explores the synergy between renewable energy and sustainable development by using photovoltaics to generate income for impoverished households and communities—this paper critically examines this top-down mode of experimentation from a multi-level perspective based on Heilmann's experimentation under hierarchy framework. Drawing from empirical evidence collected over two years from a PVPA pilot, we show that China's multi-level approach to experimentation requires dynamic mechanisms that enable not only the adaptation of national-level models to specific locations but also the incorporation of local implementation lessons in national policymaking. The resulting experimental governance thus extends from a combination of top-down mechanisms of control, local responses, and the broader contradictions that emerge from their interactions. 相似文献
9.
Professor Duzheng YE(Tu-cheng YEH) was decades ahead of his time in proposing a model experiment to investigate whether abrupt seasonal changes of the general circulation can arise through circulation feedbacks alone, unrelated to underlying inhomogeneities at the lower boundary. Here, we introduce Professor YEH's ideas during the 1950 s and 1960 s on the general circulation and summarize the results and suggestions of Yeh et al.(1959) on abrupt seasonal changes. We then review recent advances in understanding abrupt seasonal changes arising from model experiments like those proposed by Yeh et al.(1959). The model experiments show that circulation feedbacks can indeed give rise to abrupt seasonal transitions.In these transitions, large-scale eddies that originate in midlatitudes and interact with the zonal mean flow and meridional overturning circulations in the tropics play central roles. 相似文献
10.
Mass media in the U.S. continue to suggest that scientific consensus estimates of global climate disruption, such as those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are “exaggerated” and overly pessimistic. By contrast, work on the Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge (ASC) suggests that such consensus assessments are likely to understate climate disruptions. This paper offers an initial test of the competing expectations, making use of the tendency for science to be self-correcting, over time. Rather than relying in any way on the IPCC process, the paper draws evidence about emerging science from four newspapers that have been found in past work to be biased against reporting IPCC findings, consistently reporting instead that scientific findings are “in dispute.” The analysis considers two time periods — one during the time when the papers were found to be overstating challenges to then-prevailing scientific consensus, and the other focusing on 2008, after the IPCC and former Vice-President Gore shared the Nobel Prize for their work on climate disruption, and before opinion polls showed the U.S. public to be growing more skeptical toward climate science once again. During both periods, new scientific findings were more than twenty times as likely to support the ASC perspective than the usual framing of the issue in the U.S. mass media. The findings indicate that supposed challenges to the scientific consensus on global warming need to be subjected to greater scrutiny, as well as showing that, if reporters wish to discuss “both sides” of the climate issue, the scientifically legitimate “other side” is that, if anything, global climate disruption may prove to be significantly worse than has been suggested in scientific consensus estimates to date. 相似文献
11.
To cherish the memory of the late Professor Duzheng YE on what would have been his 100 th birthday, and to celebrate his great accomplishment in opening a new era of Tibetan Plateau(TP) meteorology, this review paper provides an assessment of the atmospheric heat source(AHS) over the TP from different data resources, including observations from local meteorological stations, satellite remote sensing data, and various reanalysis datasets. The uncertainty and applicability of these heat source data are evaluated. Analysis regarding the formation of the AHS over the TP demonstrates that it is not only the cause of the atmospheric circulation, but is also a result of that circulation. Based on numerical experiments, the review further demonstrates that land–sea thermal contrast is only one part of the monsoon story. The thermal forcing of the Tibetan–Iranian Plateau plays a significant role in generating the Asian summer monsoon(ASM), i.e., in addition to pumping water vapor from sea to land and from the lower to the upper troposphere, it also generates a subtropical monsoon–type meridional circulation subject to the angular momentum conservation, providing an ascending-air large-scale background for the development of the ASM. 相似文献
12.
Amy Luers 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):13-19
The US climate movement has failed to create the political support needed to pass significant climate policy. It is time to reassess climate advocacy. To develop a strategy for philanthropy to strengthen climate engagement, I interviewed over 40 climate advocates,more than a dozen representatives from the foundation community, and a dozen academics. My assessment led me to conclude that climate advocates have focused too narrowly on specific policy goals and insufficiently on influencing the larger political landscape. I suggest four ways to improve climate advocacy: 1) Increase focus on medium and longer-term goals; 2) Start with people and not carbon; 3) Focus more on values and less on science; and 4) Evaluate what works and share what we learn. To accomplish these strategies, social scientists and advocates must work together to build a culture of learning. Meanwhile, philanthropy must empower experimentation and incentivize knowledge sharing. 相似文献
13.
Nan WANG Zhenhao LING Xuejiao DENG Tao DENG Xiaopu LYU Tingyuan LI Xiaorong GAO Xi CHEN 《大气科学进展》2018,35(9):1145-1159
Historical haze episodes(2013–16) in Guangzhou were examined and classified according to synoptic weather systems.Four types of weather systems were found to be unfavorable, among which "foreside of a cold front"(FC) and "sea high pressure"(SP) were the most frequent( 75% of the total). Targeted case studies were conducted based on an FC-affected event and an SP-affected event with the aim of understanding the characteristics of the contributions of source regions to fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)) in Guangzhou. Four kinds of contributions—namely, emissions outside Guangdong Province(super-region), emissions from the Pearl River Delta region(PRD region), emissions from Guangzhou–Foshan–Shenzhen(GFS region), and emissions from Guangzhou(local)—were investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting–Community Multiscale Air Quality model. The results showed that the source region contribution differed with different weather systems. SP was a stagnant weather condition, and the source region contribution ratio showed that the local region was a major contributor(37%), while the PRD region, GFS region and the super-region only contributed 8%, 2.8% and 7%, respectively, to PM_(2.5) concentrations. By contrast, FC favored regional transport. The super-region became noticeable,contributing 34.8%, while the local region decreased to 12%. A simple method was proposed to quantify the relative impact of meteorology and emissions. Meteorology had a 35% impact, compared with an impact of-18% for emissions, when comparing the FC-affected event with that of the SP. The results from this study can provide guidance to policymakers for the implementation of effective control strategies. 相似文献
14.
Roger N. Jones 《Climatic change》2011,108(4):733-743
The latest iteration of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uncertainty guidance is simpler and easier to use
than the previous version. However, its primary focus remains assessing “what is at risk” under climate change, thus is most
suitable for dealing with the scientific uncertainties in Working Group I and part of Working Group II findings. I distinguish
between tame and complex risks, arguing that the guidance is most suited to assessing tame risks. Climate change is a complex
risk, and as such as can be divided into idealized, calculated and perceived risks. While science has claims to objectivity,
risk has a specific value component: when measuring gain and loss, calculated risks compete with risky options to manage those
risks. The IPCC is charged with calculating risk (IPCC 2007, p22) but the communication of key findings takes place in an environment of competing perceived risks. Recommendations for
managing this complex environment include separating scientific and risk-based findings, treating uncertainties for each separately;
strengthening the philosophical basis of uncertainty management; application of a methodical scientific research program;
clearly communicating competing findings, especially in the social sciences; and application of multiple frame to policy-relevant
findings as reflected in the literature. 相似文献
15.
杜祥琬 《气候变化研究进展》2016,12(2):79-82
论述了现代气候变化科学对人类新型发展观的贡献,中国对“发展”的新觉悟与国际发展观的演进相会合,从战略层面提高了对应对气候变化的认识,有力推动了巴黎气候大会的成功。本文归纳了《巴黎协定》所确立的新气候机制的4个要点和会后国际气候谈判面临的5个需要及时深化研究的新问题。中国确立的关于应对气候变化和低碳发展的目标,对创新我国发展路径具有战略意义,本文论述了这些发展目标的科学性。“十三五”是绿色、低碳转型的关键期,提出了需要抓紧做好的5个方面的工作。强调低碳与改善大气质量有很强的协同性,应对气候变化的国内外两个大局是互相促进、互相支持的,做好国内的事是根本。 相似文献
16.
While mainstream scientific knowledge production has been extensively examined in the academic literature, comparatively little is known about alternative networks of scientific knowledge production. Online sources such as blogs are an especially under-investigated site of knowledge contestation. Using degree centrality and node betweenness tests from social network analysis, and thematic content analysis of individual posts, this research identifies and critically examines the climate sceptical blogosphere and investigates whether a focus on particular themes contributes to the positioning of the most central blogs. A network of 171 individual blogs is identified, with three blogs in particular found to be the most central: Climate Audit, JoNova and Watts Up With That. These blogs predominantly focus on the scientific element of the climate debate, providing either a direct scientifically-based challenge to mainstream climate science, or a critique of the conduct of the climate science system. This overt scientific framing, as opposed to explicitly highlighting differences in values, politics, or ideological worldview, appears to be an important contributory factor in the positioning of the most central blogs. It is suggested that these central blogs are key protagonists in a process of attempted expert knowledge de-legitimisation and contestation, acting not only as translators between scientific research and lay audiences, but, in their reinterpretation of existing climate science knowledge claims, are acting themselves as alternative public sites of expertise for a climate sceptical audience. 相似文献
17.
It is widely recognized that rainfall over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) strengthens considerably during the decaying summer of El Niño, as demonstrated by the catastrophic flooding suffered in the summer of 1998. Nevertheless, the rainfall over the YRV in the summer of 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998, despite the intensity of the 2016 El Niño having been as strong as that in 1998. A thorough comparison of the YRV summer rainfall anomaly between 2016 and 1998 suggests that the difference was caused by the sub-seasonal variation in the YRV rainfall anomaly between these two years, principally in August. The precipitation anomaly was negative in August 2016——different to the positive anomaly of 1998. Further analysis suggests that the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016 could be attributable to the distinct circulation anomalies over the midlatitudes. The intensified "Silk Road Pattern" and upper-tropospheric geopotential height over the Urals region, both at their strongest since 1980, resulted in an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over midlatitude East Asia with anomalous easterly flow over the middle-to-lower reaches of the YRV in the lower troposphere. This easterly flow reduced the climatological wind, weakened the water vapor transport, and induced the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016, as compared to that in 1998. Given the unique sub-seasonal variation of the YRV rainfall in summer 2016, more attention should be paid to midlatitude circulation——besides the signal in the tropics——to further our understanding of the predictability and variation of YRV summer rainfall. 相似文献
18.
Summary In this paper, the thermal features of the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau in summer and their effects on the general circulation are reviewed. Some recent research results are reported. It is shown that the Plateau acts as a heat source in summer. Particularly the strong surface heating makes the air stratification very unstable and produces strong near-surface convergence and positive vorticity and upper layer divergence and negative vorticity. Intense convective activity generated thereby not only maintains such particular large-scale circulation pattern over the Plateau, but also transports large amounts of sensible heat, moisture, chemical pollutants, as well as air with low ozone concentration from near-surface layers to upper layers. A minimum centre of total ozone concentiation and a huge upper layer anticyclone with a warm and moist core are thus observed over the Plateau in summer. The strong divergent flow and anticyclonic vorticity source in the upper atmosphere have a strong influence on the general circulation over the world via meridional as well as longitudinal circulations, and energy, dispersion on a spherical surface. It is shown that the surface sensiole heating of the Plateau is essential for the occurrence of the abrupt seasonal change of the general circulation there, and for the persisten maintenance of the Asian monsoon. It is also reported that the elevated heating of the Tibetan Plateau together with its mechanical forcing cause the early onset of the Asian monsson to happen over the eastern coast of the Bay of Bengal, which then generates a favorable circulation background for the monsoon onset over the South China Sea. The Indian monsoon onset flows aftervards.With 13 FiguresWhile I visited USA in the summer of this year (97) the sad news of the death of Professor Riehl came to me. This was a great shock to me. Herb was my esteemed colleague and friend. During the later half of my stay at the University of Chicago in the 40s I spent most of the time with Herb and worked with him. Every weak we have several discussion through which I learnt a lot from him. I cannot forget our discussions in one morning. This discussion helped me to formulate a paper The circulation of the high troposphere over China in the winter of 1945–1946 which was published in Tellus (1950). This paper demonstrated for the first time the existence of a strong jet stream around the southern periphery of Tibetan Plateau. This jet stream is usually called southern jet stream in China, because there is also a northern one to the north of the Tibetan Plateau, These two jet streams merge into one downstream of the plateau forming the stronges jet stream in the northern hemisphere. This Tellus paper and a paper by Bolin, which also appeared in Tellus (1950), stimulated my interest in studying the role of the Tibetan Plateau in the general circulation for several decades. Because of Herb's stimulation, a colleague of mine and I write this review article in the volume in memorizing Herb's big contribution to meteorology.Because of the adoption of Pinyin in the 1960s, Yeh T. C. became Ye D.-Z 相似文献
19.
Mankind's impact on climate: The evolution of an awareness 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
William W. Kellogg 《Climatic change》1987,10(2):113-136
The first inklings of an understanding of the role played by infraredabsorbing gases in maintaining the warmth of the surface of our planet were voiced early in the 19th century, and by the turn of this century quantitative calculations had been carried out that demonstrated how a change in atmospheric carbon dioxide would alter the earth's mean temperature. However, it was not until the 1960s that much attention was paid to this matter, and in the early 1970s two important summer studies dealing with environmental change fired the imagination of the scientific community. Since then the science (or art) of modeling the climate system has made great strides, aided by faster computers, greater knowledge of the factors involved, and global observations from space of the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere. This effort has also been bolstered by studies of the behavior of the climate system in the past. There is now a strong consensus that the observed increase in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other infrared-absorbing trace gases is indeed warming the earth, and that this change is caused by mankind. The next set of questions are now being seriously addressed in national and international forums: what are the regional patterns of the changes to be anticipated, especially in terms of rainfall and soil moisture? And what should the countries of the world do about the situation? There is already a sharp debate between the activists, who would take action worldwide to avoid the climate change (or at least slow its advance), and those who would simply wait and see what happens and perhaps take what local measures are necessary to mitigate the effects. 相似文献
20.
本文在回顾科学成果传播方式与模式的基础上,以科学成果集成、网络传播和公众科学素养提升为出发点分析了当前科学传播面临的挑战与时代需求。基于对未来地球计划科学组织模式的解读,分析了未来地球计划成果传播模式的特点,并从科学研究、社会认知和科学决策层面探讨了科学成果推广和普及机制。有针对性地提出了充分引入利益相关者参与、推进创新科学成果推广机制与平台建设等科学传播相关政策建议。 相似文献