共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 485 毫秒
1.
西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展 总被引：20，自引：2，他引：18
西北干旱区是对全球变化响应最敏感地区之一,研究分析全球变暖背景下的西北干旱区水资源问题,对应对和适应未来气候变化带来的影响具有重要意义。本文通过对西北干旱区气候变暖影响下的水资源形成、转化与水循环等关键问题最新研究成果的总结分析,得出如下结论：(1) 西北干旱区温度、降水在过去的50年出现过“突变型”升高,但进入21世纪,温度和降水均处于高位震荡,升高趋势减弱;(2) 西北干旱区冬季温度的大幅升高是拉动年均温度抬升的重要原因,而西伯利亚高压活动和二氧化碳排放是引起冬季升温的重要影响因素;(3) 西北干旱区蒸发潜力在1993年出现了一个明显的转折变化,由显著下降逆转为显著上升的趋势。气候变暖、蒸发水平增大对西北干旱区生态效应的负作用已经凸显;(4) 西北干旱区冰川变化对水资源量及年内分配产生了重要影响,部分河流已经出现冰川消融拐点。在塔里木河流域,冰川融水份额较大 (50%),可能在未来一段时期,河川径流还将处在高位状态波动。全球气候变暖在加大极端气候水文事件发生频率和强度的同时,加剧了西北干旱区内陆河流域的水文波动和水资源的不确定性。 相似文献
2.
中亚天山山区冰雪变化及其对区域水资源的影响 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
冰川和积雪是构成山区固体水库的主体,对区域水资源稳定性具有调节功能,但深受气候变化的影响。以中亚天山为研究区域,基于长时间序列的观测数据,分别从冰川、积雪、水储量、径流等方面进行分析,并选取阿克苏河、开都河及乌鲁木齐河3个典型流域,研究天山山区冰雪变化对流域水资源的影响。结果表明：① 冰川退缩速率与面积的函数关系为f（x） = -0.53×x-0.15 （R2 = 0.42,RMSE = 0.086）,说明小型冰川对气候变化的响应更为敏感。同时,中低海拔区域的冰川退缩速率大于高海拔区域;② 2003-2015年天山山区水储量的递减速率为-0.7±1.53 cm/a,天山中部区域的递减速率最大,这一结果与该区域冰川急剧退缩相吻合;③ 近半个多世纪以来,冰雪融水径流增加是这3个典型流域径流量增加的主要原因,其中阿克苏河增幅最大（达0.4×108 m3/a）。但自20世纪90年代中期以来,3个流域的径流量都呈减少趋势,与流域内冰川面积减少、厚度变薄及平衡线海拔升高的关系密切。研究结果揭示了气候变化驱动下的山区固态水体储量变化对流域水资源的影响机制,以期为流域水资源管理提供有价值的决策参考。 相似文献
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塔里木河流域冰川变化及其对水资源影响 总被引：34，自引：1，他引：33
在近一个世纪以来全球变暖趋势显著的背景下,1980年代中后期以来新疆等地区的降水、出山径流出现持续增加现象,冰川也呈加速萎缩状态。作者从区域冰川研究入手,研究在这种气候暖湿转变背景下,塔里木河流域冰川变化的响应及其影响。通过应用大比例尺地形图、高分辨率卫星遥感影像及航空摄影照片获得了塔里木河流域3000多条冰川1960年代初以来的变化,表明该流域近30多年来冰川呈总体萎缩状态,冰川退缩已给塔里木河流域水资源变化带来了明显的影响。 相似文献
4.
全球气候变暖情景下黑河山区流域水资源的变化 总被引：40，自引：19，他引：21
利用有关水文气象观测资料,对全球气候变暖情景下祁连山区黑河流域水资源的变化特征、成因及趋势进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了未来各种假定气候情景下黑河山区径流变化的计算模式。分析及计算结果表明:黑河山区水资源对全球气候变暖的响应十分明显,但受其特殊地理位置的影响,水资源的变化又有着显著的地域性特征。总体上,山区的气温和降水随全球增温均呈上升和增加的趋势,且气温上升的幅度大于全球平均水平,山区径流亦随降水量的增加而增加,但增幅随着气温升高而逐渐减小,除非遭遇到比较极端的气候情景,如气温升幅与降水减幅同时出现较大值的"暖-干"气候组合或气温降幅与降水增幅的同时出现较大值的"冷-湿"气候组合等。因此,可以预计,未来几十年里黑河山区水资源量虽随着降水、气温的变化而上下波动,但变化相对稳定,其幅度基本在目前出山径流量的±10%左右范围内。 相似文献
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气候变暖对新疆降水和径流影响分析 总被引：13，自引：11，他引：13
全球气候变暖对新疆气候产生了较大的影响，在升温的背景下从20世纪80年代以来本区的降水量、冰川储量、地表径流、地下水资源发生了较大的变化：全区降水总量增加，冰川物质平衡以负平衡为主，局部地区地表径流量明显增加。对比分析不同地区降水量的变化情况，发现新疆不同地区的降水量变化情况存在明显差异，且尚难判断全区降水量是否有稳定增加的趋势。通过对已有资料的分析计算，对比冰川加速消融和降水量增加对本区地表径流增大的贡献，表明引起局部地区地表径流显著增加的主要原因是冰川加速消融。气候变暖打乱了本地的水平衡，使本地洪水和干旱灾害有加剧趋势。 相似文献
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天山的冰川现状与未来气候趋势 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
天山东段哈密庙儿沟、乌鲁木齐河源冰川;中段卡拉格玉格冰川和阿克希拉克山地冰川;西段图尤克苏冰川及其他冰川,本世纪40年代起一直处于退缩状态(较少冰川例外)。冰川物质平衡观察显示出80年代比以前突出的亏损。反映了中亚天山地区气候干暖趋势增强。应用新疆气候、水文和树木年轮研究成果综合分析,预测2000年新疆天山地区气候将出现降水偏多、气温维持平均值或略有下降的趋势。 相似文献
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2006年黑河水系典型流域冰川融水径流与出山径流的关系 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
利用2006年夏季祁连山七一冰川野外观测资料,计算了2006年七一冰川的冰川融水径流模数,为119.85 L·s-1·km-2,是20世纪70年代七一冰川径流模数的2.23倍;依据径流模数估算出2006年冰川融水径流在黑河4条支流出山径流量中的比重为9.6%,大于1991年8.2%的统计值。黑河流域东部河流出山口径流量中冰川融水所占比重变化不大,西部河流冰川融水补给比重显著增大,强烈反映了在全球气候变暖背景下,祁连山冰川对气候变化过程的响应。 相似文献
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新疆北部是我国降雪高频区之一,随着全球变暖降雪量呈显著增加趋势,对新疆气候产生重要影响,由于观测资料限制对该区域小时降雪研究还未开展,影响降雪精细化预报和服务能力提升。因此,利用新疆天山山区及其以北（以下称“新疆北部”）2012年11月—2021年2月50个国家气象站小时降雪观测资料,分析了冷季（11月—翌年2月）小时降雪特征,并按日降雪量从高到低挑选30个大暴雪过程分析其小时降雪特征、影响系统及典型环流配置。结果表明：（1） 阿勒泰北部、塔城盆地、伊犁河谷为降雪小时数（SHN）高频区,可达200 h·a-1以上;天山山区SHN高频区为海拔1800~2000 m的中山带,达127.3 h·a-1,2000 m以上降雪很少。（2） 北疆和天山山区小时降雪量（R）≤1.0 mm·h-1量级SHN占比分别为91.7%和91.9%,对降雪量贡献分别为70.7%和68.9%,R>1.0 mm·h-1为小时极端降雪事件,对北疆和天山山区降雪量贡献分别为29.3%和31.1%。（3） 极端暴雪过程平均SHN为25.5 h,平均降雪量为30.7 mm,雪强约为1.2 mm·h-1,大暴雪过程由长时间降雪导致,降雪持续时间是开展大暴雪研究和进行预报服务的关键点,造成大暴雪过程的影响系统主要有中亚长波槽、中亚低涡、乌拉尔山长波槽和西西伯利亚低涡（槽）,占比分别为30.0%、6.7%、13.3%和50.0%,中纬度长波槽（涡）和北方西西伯利亚低涡（槽）系统各为50.0%。 相似文献
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全球变暖对区域水资源影响的计算分析：以海南岛万泉河为例 总被引：23，自引：0，他引：23
自1985年世界气象组织(WMO)在奥地利召开全球气候增暖的专门会议之后,全球气候变暖对水资源及陆地生态系统的影响成为非常活跃的研究领域。本文利用水量平衡模型,采取假定气候方案方法,分析了万泉河流域水资源状况对全球增暖的响应。结果表明:温度升高将明显导致区域径流量减少、年径流系列的不稳定性增强、土壤蓄水降低,同时径流年内分配也发生变化。为未来全球变暖状况下,区域水资源管理提供依据。 相似文献
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60-year changes and mechanisms of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the eastern Tianshan of China,Central Asia
ZhongQin Li HuiLin Li ChunHai Xu YuFeng Jia FeiTeng Wang PuYu Wang XiaoYing Yue 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):380-388
Worldwide examination of glacier change is based on detailed observations from only a small number of glaciers. The ground-based detailed individual glacier monitoring is of strong need and extremely important in both regional and global scales. A long-term integrated multi-level monitoring has been carried out on Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1) at the headwaters of the Urumqi River in the eastern Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia since 1959 by the Tianshan Glaciological Station, Chinese Acamedey of Sciences (CAS), and the glaciological datasets promise to be the best in China. The boundaries of all glacier zones moved up, resulting in a shrunk accumulation area. The stratigraphy features of the snowpack on the glacier were found to be significantly altered by climate warming. Mass balances of UG1 show accelerated mass loss since 1960, which were attributed to three mechanisms. The glacier has been contracting at an accelerated rate since 1962, resulting in a total reduction of 0.37 km2 or 19.3% from 1962 to 2018. Glacier runoff measured at the UG1 hydrometeorological station demonstrates a significant increase from 1959 to 2018 with a large interannual fluctuation, which is inversely correlated with the glacier's mass balance. This study analyzes on the changes in glacier zones, mass balance, area and length, and streamflow in the nival glacial catchment over the past 60 years. It provides critical insight into the processes and mechanisms of glacier recession in response to climate change. The results are not only representative of those glaciers in the Tianshan mountains, but also for the continental-type throughout the world. The direct observation data form an essential basis for evaluating mountain glacier changes and the impact of glacier shrinkage on water resources in the interior drainage rivers within the vast arid and semi-arid land in northwestern China as well as Central Asia. 相似文献
12.
近20年天山地区冰湖变化特征 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
主要基于Landsat TM/ETM+影像等数据,分析1990-2010 年来天山地区冰湖变化特征及其对冰川融水径流的影响。近20 年来,天山冰湖面积平均以0.689 km2a-1 或0.8% a-1的速度扩张,其中一半以上是由东天山(0.352 km2 a-1) 贡献的,其次为北天山,面积年均增率为0.165km2 a-1,西天山和中央天山的面积年均增率最小,分别为0.089 km2 a-1和0.083 km2 a-1。除在相对较低海拔(< 2900 m) 和高海拔(> 4100 m) 范围内冰湖面积出现减少的现象,其他各高度带的冰湖面积均在扩张,其中增率最快的在3500~3900 m之间,平均增速达1.6% a-1。冰湖扩张是本区气候变暖和冰川普遍退缩共同作用的结果,以中小规模的冰湖(< 0.6 km2) 对冰川退缩响应最为敏感。冰湖扩张能在一定程度上延缓因气候变暖而导致的区域冰川水资源的亏损,每年大约有0.006 Gt 的冰川融水滞留在冰湖中,约占天山冰川年消融量的2‰,但也将加剧本区冰湖溃决洪水/泥石流灾害的频次和强度。 相似文献
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西北地区山区融雪期气候变化对径流量的影响(英文) 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Water resources in the arid land of Northwest China mainly derive from snow and glacier melt water in mountainous areas. So the study on onset, cessation, length, tempera-ture and precipitation of snowmelt period is of great significance for allocating limited water resources reasonably and taking scientific water resources management measures. Using daily mean temperature and precipitation from 8 mountainous weather stations over the pe-riod 1960?2010 in the arid land of Northwest China, this paper analyzes climate change of snowmelt period and its spatial variations and explores the sensitivity of runoff to length, temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period. The results show that mean onset of snowmelt period has shifted 15.33 days earlier while mean ending date has moved 9.19 days later. Onset of snowmelt period in southern Tianshan Mountains moved 20.01 days earlier while that in northern Qilian Mountains moved only 10.16 days earlier. Mean precipitation and air temperature increased by 47.3 mm and 0.857℃ in the mountainous areas of Northwest China, respectively. The precipitation of snowmelt period increased the fastest, which is ob-served in southern Tianshan Mountains, up to 65 mm, and the precipitation and temperature in northern Kunlun Mountains increased the slowest, an increase of 25 mm and 0.617℃, respectively, while the temperature in northern Qilian Mountains increased the fastest, in-creasing by 1.05℃. The annual runoff is also sensitive to the variations of precipitation and temperature of snowmelt period, because variation of precipitation induces annual runoff change by 7.69% while change of snowmelt period temperature results in annual runoff change by 14.15%. 相似文献
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天山冰川与湖泊变化所示的气候趋势 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
天山山系深居亚洲大陆腹地，受中亚自然地理环境的制约，在变性西风气流的影响下，７０年代至今山地冰物质平衡负值，伴随着气温的变化而增大。湖泊则是随着山区降水量的增加，其面积渐增。气温与降水的相互作用，使得整修天山山系的水资源总量趋于正常略偏多。预期这种气候趋势将会延续到下世纪初期。 相似文献
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Studying the response to warming of hydrological systems in China’s temperate glacier region is essential in order to provide information required for sustainable development.The results indicated the warming climate has had an impact on the hydrological cycle.As the glacier area subject to melting has increased and the ablation season has become longer,the contribution of meltwater to annual river discharge has increased.The earlier onset of ablation at higher elevation glaciers has resulted in the period of minimum discharge occurring earlier in the year.Seasonal runoff variations are dominated by snow and glacier melt,and an increase of meltwater has resulted in changes of the annual water cycle in the Lijiang Basin and Hailuogou Basin.The increase amplitude of runoff in the downstream region of the glacial area is much stronger than that of precipitation,resulting from the prominent increase of meltwater from glacier region in two basins.Continued observations in the glacierized basins should be undertaken in order to monitor changes,to reveal the relationships between climate,glaciers,hydrology and water supplies,and to assist in maintaining sustainable regional development. 相似文献
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乌鲁木齐河源区径流是供给中下游地区和乌鲁木齐市的重要水源。通过对河源区3个水文断面（1号冰川、空冰斗和总控）有观测记录以来的径流变化研究,一方面提供径流观测的最新资料,使人们对乌鲁木齐河源区径流近期变化有新的认识;另一方面通过对气候、冰川变化的综合分析,揭示乌鲁木齐河源区径流近50 a变化事实和可能的原因。结果表明：河源区3个水文断面径流自有观测记录以来整体上呈增加趋势,其中总控水文断面径流虽有增加,但不显著。影响3个水文断面径流变化的因素不同,1号冰川水文断面径流变化受控于冰川区热量条件,当消融期气温大于2 ℃时,径流呈加速增长。1号冰川径流不仅包含了冰川对气候变化的瞬时响应,也包含了冰川对气候变化的滞后响应,由冰川物质平衡和面积计算的冰川体积损失量变化较好地验证了径流变化。对于空冰斗融雪径流,降水量多寡是导致径流变化的主导因素,但冰斗区固态降水多,气温亦起着不可忽视的作用。总控水文断面径流大小与气温和降水关系比较复杂,表现为近年来气温和降水增加,径流却有下降趋势,这可能与河源区实际蒸散增强、冰川快速退缩导致径流峰值已经出现、大范围冻土消融导致的地下渗漏量增多等原因有关。 相似文献
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Simulation and analysis of river runoff in typical
cold regions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
QiuDong Zhao BaiSheng Ye YongJian Ding ShiQiang Zhang ChuanCheng Zhao Jian Wang ZengRu Wang 《寒旱区科学》2011,3(6):0498-0508
It is generally agreed that global warming is taking place, which has caused runoff generation processes and apparently total runoff
amount changes in cold regions of Northwestern China. It is absolutely necessary to quantify and analyze earth surface hydrological
processes by numerical models for formulating scientific sustainable development of water resources. Hydrological models
became established tools for studying the hydrological cycle, but did not consider frozen soil or glacier hydrology. Thus, they
should be improved to satisfy the simulation of hydrological processes in cold regions. In this paper, an energy balance glacier
melt model was successfully coupled to the VIC model with frozen soil scheme, thus improving the models performance in a cold
catchment area. We performed the improved VIC model to simulate the hydrological processes in the Aksu River Basin, and the
simulated results are in good agreement with observed data. Based on modeling hydrological data, the runoff components and
their response to climate change were analyzed. The results show: (1) Glacial meltwater recharge accounts for 29.2% of runoff for
the Toxkan River, and 58.7% for the Kunma Like River. (2) The annual total runoff of two branches of the Aksu River show increasing
trends, increased by about 43.1%, 25.95×106 m3 per year for the Toxkan River and by 13.1%, 14.09×106 m3 per year
for the Kunma Like River during the latter 38 years. (3) The annual total runoff of the Toxkan River increased simply due to the
increase of non-glacial runoff, while the increase of annual total runoff of the Kunma Like River was the result of increasing glacial
(42%) and non-glacial runoff (58%). 相似文献