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1.
Heilongjiang Province is a major grain production base in China, and its agricultural development plays an important role in China’s social economy. Drought and flood events are the primary disasters in Heilongjiang Province and have considerable impacts on agriculture. In this study, relatively complete monthly precipitation data from 26 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province during the period of 1958–2013 were analyzed using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) combined with principal component analysis, Mann–Kendall trend analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis to determine the spatial and temporal distributions of drought and flood events in this province. The results were as follows: (1) the whole of Heilongjiang exhibited an aridity trend. In northern Heilongjiang, spring and summer experienced a wetting trend, and autumn and winter experienced an aridity trend. (2) The SPI3 exhibited 8- and 16-year periodic variation characteristics in spring, 10- and 22-year periodic variation characteristics in summer, and 10- and 32-year periodic variation characteristics in autumn. In addition to the 10-year periodic variation characteristics in winter, other periodic variation characteristics were observed. (3) The increasing trend in the percentage of stations affected by flood was more obvious than that affected by drought. Therefore, Heilongjiang Province is more vulnerable to flooding. (4) The influence of drought and flood disasters in Heilongjiang Province showed a growth trend, but the flood effect was more remarkable. (5) The agricultural area affected by drought and flood disasters in Heilongjiang Province showed an increasing trend. Although there was a greater increase in flood disaster area, the main types of disasters were drought-dominated.  相似文献   

2.
Huai River Basin, as the sixth largest river basin in China, has a high‐regulated river system and has been facing severe water problems. In this article, the changing patterns of runoff and precipitation at 10 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2000 on the highly regulated river (Shaying River) and less‐regulated river (Huai River) in the basin are evaluated at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales using the Mann–Kendall test and simple linear regression model. The results showed that: (1) No statistically significant trends of precipitation in the upper and middle Huai River Basins were detected at the annual scale, but the trend of annual runoff at Baiguishan, Zhoukou and Fuyang stations in Shaying River decreased significantly, whereas the others were not. Moreover, the decreasing trends of runoff for most months were significant in Shaying River, although the trend of monthly precipitation decreased significantly only in April in the whole research area and the number of months in the dry season having significantly decreasing trends in runoff was more than that in the wet season. (2) The rainfall–runoff relationship was significant in both highly regulated river and less‐regulated river. In regulated river, the reservoirs have larger regulation capacity than the floodgates and thus have the smaller correlation coefficient and t‐value. In Huai River, the correlation coefficients decreased from upper stream to downstream. (3) The regulation of dams and floodgates for flood control and water supply was the principal reason for the decreasing runoff in Huai River Basin, although the decreasing precipitation in April in this basin was statistically significant. The findings are useful for recognizing hydrology variation and will provide scientific foundation to integrated water resources management in Huai River Basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The statistical characteristics of precipitation on the daily resolution play an important role not only in the risk assessment of floods and droughts but also in the land use management. In this study, spatial and temporal patterns of the precipitation concentration in the Yangtze River Basin are investigated by using three indices, i.e. precipitation concentration index (CI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation concentration period (PCP). Based on meteorological data of 147 stations for the period of 1960–2008, non‐parametric trend analysis and wavelet transformation analysis are employed to detect the temporal variation of these indices. Spatial variability of precipitation concentration indices and their trends are analysed and demonstrated with the help of GIS tools. The results indicate the following: (i) The high precipitation CI values mainly distribute in the middle region of the Yangtze River Basin, whereas the lower and lowest CI values are found in the lower and upper regions, respectively. A roughly east–west gradient for PCD value and PCP value varies from 0.26 to 0.77 and from 123 to 197, respectively. (ii) The analysis results of precipitation CI trends for different periods (i.e. recent 40, 30 and 20 years) show that the middle region of the Yangtze River Basin experienced a transition from decreasing precipitation CI to increasing precipitation CI during the last two decades, although the decreasing long‐term trends in the precipitation CI are not significant in most areas during the period of 1960–2008. (iii) The upper basin, middle basin and lower basin are, respectively, dominated by the significant decreasing, increasing and no significant trends in PCD. A dominance of insignificant PCP trends is observed in the entire basin during 1960–2008 despite that a few areas in the upper region are characterized by significant decreasing trends. (iv) Interdecadal oscillations can be found for three precipitation indices, but with no constant periodicity. Furthermore, good positive correlations have been detected between precipitation CI and PCD, whereas insignificant correlation coefficients of PCP with precipitation are common in the basin. The results can provide beneficial reference to water resource and eco‐environment and mitigation to flood or drought hazards in the Yangtze River Basin for policymakers and stakeholders. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Based on historical records and crop harvest scores extracted from historical documents, this study reconstructed the spatial–temporal distribution and severities of floods in the Yangtze-Huai River valley (YHRV) in 1823 and 1849. We also summarized the effects of the floods on society and identified government measures taken to cope with the floods in the context of the economic recession in the period of 1801–1850. The 1823 flood, which was caused by the heavy precipitation of the Meiyu period and typhoons, severely affected areas in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, the 1849 flood, triggered by long-term, high-intensity Meiyu precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, mainly affected areas along the Yangtze River. The 1849 disaster was more serious than the one in 1823. In the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the 1849 flood caused the worst agricultural failure of the period 1730–1852. To deal with the disasters, the Qing government took relief measures, such as exempting taxes in the affected areas, distributing grain stored in warehouses, and transferring grain to severely afflicted areas. These relief measures were supplemented by auxiliary measures, such as exempting commodity taxes on grain shipped to disaster areas and punishing officials who failed to provide adequate disaster relief. The flood disasters disrupted the water system of the Grand Canal and forced the Qing government to transport Cao rice by sea beginning in 1826. This laid the groundwork for the rise of coastal shipping in modern China. With the economic recession of the 19th century, Chinese society was not as resilient to floods as it was in the 18th century. Compared to droughts, floods are more difficult to deal with and pose greater threats to infrastructure and normal life and work in the cities.  相似文献   

5.
The Itajaí River basin is one of the areas most affected by flood-related disasters in Brazil. Flood hazard maps based on digital elevation models (DEM) are an important alternative in the absence of detailed hydrological data and for application in large areas. We developed a flood hazard mapping methodology by combining flow frequency analysis with the Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND) model – f2HAND – and applied it in three municipalities in the Itajaí River basin. The f2HAND performance was evaluated through comparison with observed 2011 flood extent maps. Model performance and sensitivity were tested for different DEM resolutions, return periods and streamflow data from stations located upstream and downstream on the main river. The flood hazard mapping with our combined approach matched 92% of the 2011 flood event. We found that the f2HAND model has low sensitivity to DEM resolution and high sensitivity to area threshold of channel initiation.  相似文献   

6.
东南沿海水库下游地区基于动态模拟的洪涝风险评估   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
我国东南沿海地区大多为一些中小流域,这些流域上游多建有水库工程,下游则为人口稠密的平原区,流域调蓄能力小,汇流时间短.同时,随着近年来城镇化快速发展,洪涝风险不断加大.因此,迫切需要开展水库下游不同暴雨重现期下的洪涝风险评估研究,以便为防洪决策提供技术支撑.为此,本文利用遥感、GIS、水文水动力学模型等相关技术方法,建立洪涝动态模拟模型来评估洪涝危险性;采用层次分析法和因子叠加法,从洪涝危险性和洪涝易损性两方面开展洪涝风险综合评估分析.研究表明,通过多学科与多技术手段相结合方法,来模拟预测不同暴雨重现期洪水动态淹没过程,再结合相关社会经济属性,可以有效地评估研究区洪涝灾害的风险,从而为水库调度及流域防洪减灾提供有力支撑.  相似文献   

7.
随着气候变化和人类活动的加剧,城市化地区水文过程受到较大影响,极端水文事件发生频率显著加大,探究城市化地区洪水演变和驱动机理对于防洪减灾具有重大意义。本文以长江下游快速城市化地区的秦淮河流域为例,分析了1987—2018年期间该流域年最大日径流的演变特征,构建多元线性回归模型和广义可加GAMLSS模型识别了关键驱动因子并量化其贡献作用。结果表明:(1)城市化背景下秦淮河流域年最大日径流呈现显著上升趋势,平均增长速率为14.77 m3/(s·a),并于2001年发生显著突变。(2)汛期降水量和不透水面率是年最大日径流变化的关键驱动因素,最优模型显示前者贡献率超过了70%,表明了降水改变的决定性作用,而不透水面率贡献率超过20%则表明了下垫面的改变对年最大日径流演变存在显著影响。(3)不透水面的增加对年最大日径流和汛期降水量响应关系的影响程度从突变前的6.7%增加到突变后的10.4%,快速城市化已显著改变了流域降水-径流响应过程。研究表明,随着城市发展秦淮河流域的年最大日径流受到人类活动显著影响,洪涝威胁日趋增大,研究结果可为城市化地区防洪减灾提供一定参考。  相似文献   

8.
1960-2012年鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件时空演变特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
王容  李相虎  薛晨阳  张丹 《湖泊科学》2020,32(1):207-222
基于鄱阳湖流域五河7个主要入湖控制站19602012年的实测径流资料,通过短周期旱涝急转指数,结合TFPW-MK趋势检验法及集合经验模态分解法,分析了鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件的时空分布、演变趋势、强度及周期变化等,并探讨了旱涝急转指数的不确定性及旱涝急转事件的成因.结果表明:鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件主要分布在310月,其中36月主要表现为“旱转涝”,710月主要表现为“涝转旱”,且不同年代间存在一定的时空差异;五河以轻度旱涝急转事件为主,重度旱涝急转事件发生频率较低,主要发生在抚河、信江和饶河流域,且多以“涝转旱”事件为主;在年代际上,鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件在1990s发生的频率最高,在2000s最低.同时,除饶河外,鄱阳湖流域年最强“涝转旱”事件的发生强度呈减弱趋势,而年最强“旱转涝”事件的发生强度在赣江和修水北支有减弱趋势,在饶河和修水南支有增强趋势.五河旱涝急转的变化存在2个特征时间尺度,分别为1 a和21~35 a,而年最强旱涝急转事件的发生强度具有3 a左右的周期变化特征.这些变化与流域降水的不均匀性及强烈的人类活动等有关.本研究结果有助于全面系统认识鄱阳湖流域在全球变暖背景下极端水文事件的发生机制和变化规律,可为鄱阳湖区防汛抗旱减灾提供重要的科学依据.  相似文献   

9.
Spatiotemporal changes in climatic extremes in the Yellow River Basin from 1959 to 2008 were investigated on the basis of a suite of 27 climatic indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data from 75 meteorological stations with the help of the Mann–Kendall test, linear regression method and GIS technique. Furthermore, the changes in the probability distribution of the extreme indices were examined. The results indicate: (1) The whole basin is dominated by significant increase in the frequency of warm days and warm nights, and dominated by significant decrease in the frequency of cold days and cold nights. Although trends in absolute temperature indices show less spatial coherence compared with that in the percentile-based temperature indices, overall increasing trends can be found in Max Tmax (TXx), Min Tmax (TXn), Max Tmin (TNx) and Min Tmin (TNn). (2) Although the spatial patterns and the number of stations with significant changes for threshold and duration temperature indices are also not identical, general positive trends in warm indices (i.e., summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), warm spell duration indicator and growing season length) and negative trends in cold indices (i.e., frost days, ice days and cold spell duration indicator) can be found in the basin. Annual nighttime temperature has increased at a faster rate than that in daytime temperature, leading to obvious decrease in diurnal temperature range. (3) The changes in precipitation indices are much weaker and less spatially coherent compared with these of temperature indices. For all precipitation indices, only few stations are characterized by significantly change in extreme precipitation, and their spatial patterns are always characterized by irregular and insignificant positive and negative changes. However, generally, changes in precipitation extremes present drying trends, although most of the changes are insignificant. (4) Results at seasonal scale show that warming trends occur for all seasons, particularly in winter. Different from that in other three seasons, general positive trends in max 1-day precipitation (Rx1DAY) and max 5-day precipitation (Rx5DAY) are found in winter. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of indices for 1959–1983 and 1984–2008 indicate a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and a less pronounced tendency toward drier condition during the past decades. The results can provide beneficial reference to water resource and eco-environment management strategies in the Yellow River Basin for associated policymakers and stakeholders.  相似文献   

10.
A scheme for meteorological drought analysis at various temporal and spatial scales based on a spatial Bayesian interpolation of drought severity derived from Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values at observed stations is presented and applied to the Huai River basin of China in this paper, using monthly precipitation record from 1961 to 2006 in 30 meteorological stations across the basin. After dividing the study area into regular grids, drought condition in gauged sites are classified into extreme, severe, moderate and non drought according to SPIs at month, seasonal and annual time scales respectively while that in ungauged grids are explained as risks of various drought severities instead of single state by a Bayesian interpolation. Subsequently, temporal and spatial patterns of drought risks are investigated statistically. Main conclusions of the research are as follows: (1) drought at seasonal scale was more threatening than the other two time scales with a larger number of observed drought events and more notable variation; (2) results of the Mann–Kendall test revealed an upward trend of drought risk in April and September; (3) there were larger risks of extreme and severe drought in southern and northwestern parts of the basin while the northeastern areas tended to face larger risks of moderate drought. The case study in Huai River basin suggests that the proposed approach is a viable and flexible tool for monitoring meteorological drought at multiple scales with a more specific insight into drought characteristics at each severity level.  相似文献   

11.
Understanding precipitation variations on various timescales and their correlations is important for assessment of flood risk and utilization of water resources. In this study, the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation concentration in the upper reaches of the Huai River, China, were investigated using two indices: the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI) for measuring seasonality and daily heterogeneity using monthly and daily precipitation series, respectively. In particular, the trends of PCI and CI were tested by the Mann–Kendall method, and relationship among PCI, CI and percentage of precipitation contributed by the rainiest days was analyzed by the linear correlation analysis. The results show a significant seasonality of the rainfall distribution and very in homogeneous temporal distribution of the daily rainfall in the south part of the study area, especially in the three reservoirs. Positive trends in the PCI and CI were found at most stations, although none of the PCI trends were statistically significant. Daily heterogeneity of the rainfall in a year is highly correlated with the heavy rainfall amount of the 15 % rainiest days, and seasonality in rainfall distribution over a year can be partly explained by the daily rainfall heterogeneity.  相似文献   

12.
Impact assessment of urbanization on flood risk in the Yangtze River Delta   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
The Yangtze River Delta region is the region with highest urbanization speed in China. In this study, 6 typical urbanization areas in Yangtze River Delta were selected as the objectives of study. Flood risk assessment index system was established based on the flood disaster formation mechanism, and analytic hierarchy process was utilized to define the weight of indices. The flood hazard, the exposure of disaster bearing body, the vulnerability of disaster bearing body and the comprehensive flood risk corresponding to three typical years in different urbanization stages, 1991, 2001 and 2006 were assessed. The results show that the flood hazard and the exposure of disaster bearing body in the 6 areas are all with an increasing trend in the process of urbanization, among which, the increasing trend of the exposure of disaster bearing body is especially obvious. Though the vulnerabilities of disaster bearing body in the 6 areas are all with decreasing trend owe to the enhancement of flood control and disaster mitigation capability, the comprehensive flood risks in the 6 areas increased as a whole, which would pose a serious threat to urban sustainable development. Finally, effective countermeasures for flood risk management of urbanization areas in Yangtze River Delta were put forward based on the assessment results.  相似文献   

13.
This study aims to determine temporal trends and spatial distribution of the annual and monthly precipitation in the Haihe River Basin, China, during 1951–2008. A significant decreasing trend was observed for the annual precipitation, mainly attributed to the abrupt decrease in the flood‐season precipitation (June–September) around the year of 1979. No significant trend was revealed for precipitation within Period I of 1951–1979 and Period II of 1980–2008. Results of this study indicated that the relative contributions of the flood‐season precipitation decreased temporally with time and spatially with elevation. This study also identified a potential movement of storm centers from east to west portions of the basin. In addition, analysis on the precipitation anomalies also suggested a redistribution of the non‐flood season precipitation over the study area. Compared with the west portion of the basin, generally, the east received relatively more precipitation during the non‐flood season, while similar trend of precipitation redistribution was not observed in the flood season. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Drought is one of the most devastating climate disasters. Hence, drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigating some of the adverse effects of drought. Data-driven models are widely used for drought forecasting such as ARIMA model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, wavelet neural network (WANN) model, support vector regression model, grey model and so on. Three data-driven models (ARIMA model; ANN model; WANN model) are used in this study for drought forecasting based on standard precipitation index of two time scales (SPI; SPI-6 and SPI-12). The optimal data-driven model and time scale of SPI are then selected for effective drought forecasting in the North of Haihe River Basin. The effectiveness of the three data-models is compared by Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test, Kendall rank correlation, and the correlation coefficients (R2). The forecast results shows that the WANN model is more suitable and effective for forecasting SPI-6 and SPI-12 values in the north of Haihe River Basin.  相似文献   

15.
杨迈里  黄群 《湖泊科学》1997,9(2):147-151
女山湖地处淮河中、下游交界段右岸、属淮河支流池河水系统。由于该地区为北亚热带向暖温带过渡气候区,研究其降水、旱涝的长期变化有重要意义。北宋以来千年间,该地区是我国东部旱涝灾害、尤其是洪涝频繁高发地区,据历史文献记载,自９６０Ａ．Ｄ．以来,共有旱７４７年,三年二灾。  相似文献   

16.
江淮流域是我国暴雨频发的地区之一,而乌拉尔山阻塞高压和西太平洋副热带高压是北半球两个主要的大气环流系统.本文统计分析了1971~2003年期间乌山阻塞高压和西太平洋副高的逐日强度变化特征,研究了乌山阻塞高压和西太平洋副高对江淮流域强暴雨过程的响应关系.结果表明,江淮流域多数强暴雨过程发生在乌山阻高的减弱期,在乌山阻高的建立和加强期较少有持续性暴雨发生.乌山阻高的突然减弱是江淮流域强暴雨过程发生的强信号之一.同时,西太平洋副热带高压的加强西伸登陆是江淮流域强暴雨过程发生的必要条件之一.  相似文献   

17.
On the basis of the disaster system theory and comprehensive analysis of flood risk factors, including the hazard of the disaster-inducing factors and disaster-breeding environment, as well as the vulnerability of the hazards-bearing bodies, the primary risk assessment index system of flood diversion district as well as its assessment standards were established. Then, a new model for comprehensive flood risk assessment was put forward in this paper based on set pair analysis (SPA) and variable fuzzy sets (VFS) theory, named set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model (SPA-VFS), which determines the relative membership degree function of VFS by using SPA method and has the advantages of intuitionist course, simple calculation and good generality application. Moreover, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was combined with trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the weights of assessment indices, thus the weights for flood hazard and flood vulnerability were determined by the fuzzy AHP procedure, respectively. Then SPA-VFS were applied to calculate the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with rank feature value equation and the confidence criterion, respectively. Under the natural disasters risk expression recommended by the Humanitarian Affairs Department of United Nations, flood risk grades were achieved from the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with risk grade classification matrix, where flood hazard, flood vulnerability and flood risk were all classified into five grades as very low, low, medium, high and very high. Consequently, integrated flood risk maps could be carried out for flood risk management and decision-making. Finally, SPA-VFS and fuzzy AHP were employed for comprehensive flood risk assessment of Jingjiang flood diversion district in China, and the computational results demonstrate that SPA-VFS is reasonable, reliable and applicable, thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk assessment, and moreover has potential to be applicable to comprehensive risk assessment of other natural disasters with no much modification.  相似文献   

18.
中国异常增暖来年江淮流域易发生大洪水   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
在1987年以来全球气温明显增高的同时，中国气温也显著增高，1997年达到了峰值，2006年又出现了次峰值.为搞清异常增暖对中国旱涝等灾害的发生可能带来的影响，本文重点统计分析了中国年平均气温对全球年平均气温的响应关系，并分析研究了1951～2006年期间中国月年平均气温的年际变化特征和汛期主要多雨带类型及发生严重洪涝区域之间的对应关系.结果发现：（1）3个中国年平均气温异常偏高但8月气温不高的来年汛期主要多雨带和严重洪涝区域都发生在淮河流域（3/3）；（2）5个年平均气温偏高且8月气温也明显偏高的来年汛期长江流域发生了大洪水和严重洪涝（5/5），特别是其中2个8月气温特高的来年（1954、1998年）汛期长江流域发生了特大洪水和严重洪涝（2/2）.对这个前兆强信号的发现和揭示，不但证明了全球和中国异常增暖对来年中国汛期水旱灾害的重大影响，也对准确预测中国汛期主要多雨带分布类型和江淮流域的大洪水和特大洪水有特别重要的应用价值.  相似文献   

19.
Projecting changes in the frequency and intensity of future precipitation and flooding is critical for the development of social infrastructure under climate change. The Mekong River is among the world's large-scale rivers severely affected by climate change. This study aims to define the duration of precipitation contributing to peak floods based on its correlation with peak discharge and inundation volume in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). We assessed the changes in precipitation and flood frequency using a large ensemble Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF). River discharge in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) and flood inundation in the LMB were simulated by a coupled rainfall-runoff and inundation (RRI) model. Results indicated that 90-day precipitation counting backward from the day of peak flooding had the highest correlation with peak discharge (R2 = .81) and inundation volume (R2 = .81). The ensemble mean of present simulation of d4PDF (1951–2010) showed good agreement with observed extreme flood events in the LMB. The probability density of 90-day precipitation shifted from the present to future climate experiments with a large variation of mean (from 777 to 900 mm) and SD (from 57 to 96 mm). Different patterns of sea surface temperature significantly influence the variation of precipitation and flood inundation in the LMB in the future (2051–2110). Extreme flood events (50-year, 100-year, and 1,000-year return periods) showed increases in discharge, inundation area, and inundation volume by 25%–40%, 19%–36%, and 23%–37%, respectively.  相似文献   

20.
太湖流域位于长江入海口,地处中国沿海经济带和长江沿线内陆经济带的交汇处,是中国高度城镇化地区之一.流域汛期降水受到多重天气系统的影响,不同的天气系统带来时空分布各异的降水,给该地区城镇防洪排涝工作造成了巨大的挑战.本文基于Copula理论对太湖流域汛期洪涝风险进行研究,考虑了因降水主导因素不同所造成的流域洪涝风险的时空差异性.在时间角度,采用降水主导因素发生时间的概率分布,将汛期划分为梅汛期和台汛期;在空间角度,通过Copula函数,对研究区进行聚类划分;在此基础上,根据太湖流域防洪规划,对流域梅汛期和台汛期的洪涝风险进行分析.研究结果表明:①太湖流域的汛期划分为:6月24日7月21日为梅汛期,7月22日9月22日为台汛期;②根据各分区降水和太湖水位的联合分布函数拟合效果的优劣,在梅汛期,太湖流域被划分为P-Ⅰ区、P-Ⅱ区和P-Ⅲ区;在台汛期,整个流域的降水作为一个整体,不分区;③到2025年,太湖流域在梅汛期和台汛期出现排涝不利情境的风险概率分别为2.4%和1.1%.本文的研究方法可以为太湖流域设计暴雨的调整、洪水资源的利用以及防洪排涝实时调度的决策提供科学参考.  相似文献   

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