首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.  相似文献   

2.
The Tsunami of August 17, 1999 in Izmit Bay,Turkey   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Altinok  Y.  Tinti  S.  Alpar  B.  Yalçiner  A. C.  Ersoy  Ş  Bortolucci  E.  Armigliato  A. 《Natural Hazards》2001,24(2):133-146
The Kocaeli 1999 Earthquake with an Mw = 7.4 caused major hazards throughout the NW of Turkey from Tekirdag to Bolu. Historical data indicates that some of the earthquakes around Izmit Bay have caused tsunamis. In this study, tsunami research for the Kocaeli 1999 Earthquake has been made also taking into consideration historical data. In this research more than about 70 data at 35 localities have been used to determine the tsunami evidences in the bay. Coastal observations indicated runups which were ranging from 1 to 2.5 m along the shores. However, the wave runups are more complex along the south coast due to the presence of coastal landslides (Deirmendere, Halidere, Ulasli, Karamürsel) and subsided areas (Kavakli to Yeniköy) along the shore. West of Yalova, evidence of tsunami rapidly diminished. In addition, possible tectonic mechanism has been determined by using 33 single-channel high-resolution digital seismic reflection profiles which were acquired following the Kocaeli 1999 Earthquake. As a result it has been determined that the Kocaeli Earthquake has created tsunami in Izmit Bay.  相似文献   

3.
Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds   总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2  
The Scotia Arc is one of two regions in the Atlantic Ocean with greater potential for tsunami generation from seismic and volcanic sources. A numerical modeling study was undertaken to determine tsunami generation from postulated sources along the Arc and tsunami wave amplification or attenuation along the Patagonian continental shelf. Sea level oscillation represented by a simple sinusoidal wave function applied at the boundary of the numerical grid, which simulated the tsunami entering the computational domain, was implemented as forcing. The validation of this model was carried out by comparing the maximum amplitudes recorded and simulated at Santa Teresita and Mar del Plata (Buenos Aires province) after the occurrence of earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Sumatra (December 2004). From numerical simulations it can be seen that the tsunami propagation is highly affected by bathymetric refraction on the Patagonian continental shelf and the wave amplitude is significantly attenuated on the inner continental shelf. Maximum amplifications were obtained around Malvinas (Falkland) Islands and Burdwood bank because the wave propagates almost without refracting and the shoaling effect is highly significant there.  相似文献   

4.
  相似文献   

5.
The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.  相似文献   

6.
The tsunami of 2004 in the Indian Ocean transported thousands of meters-long boulders shoreward at Pakarang Cape, Thailand. We investigated size, position and long axis orientation of 467 boulders at the cape. Most of boulders found at the cape are well rounded, ellipsoid in shape, without sharp broken edges. They were fragments of reef rocks and their sizes were estimated to be < 14m3 (22.7t). The distribution pattern and orientation of long axis of boulders reflect the inundation pattern and behavior of the tsunami waves. It was found that there is no clear evidence indicating monotonous fine/coarse shoreward trends of these boulders along each transect line. On the other hand, the large boulders were deposited repeatedly along the three arcuate lines at the intertidal zone with a spacing of approximately 136m interval. This distribution pattern may suggest that long-lasting oscillatory flows might have repositioned the boulders and separated the big ones from small. No boulders were found on land, indicating that the hydraulic force of the tsunami wave rapidly dissipated on reaching the land due to the higher bottom friction and the presence of a steep slope. We further conducted numerical calculation of tsunami inundation at Pakarang Cape. According to the calculation, the sea receded and the major part of the tidal bench (area with boulders at present) was exposed above the sea surface before the arrival of the first tsunami wave. The first tsunami wave arrived at the cape from west to east at approximately 130min after the tsunami generation, and then inundated inlands. Our calculation shows that tsunami wave was focused around the offshore by a small cove at the reef edge and spread afterwards in a fan-like shape on the tidal bench. The critical wave velocities necessary to move the largest and average-size boulders by sliding can be estimated to be approximately 3.2 and 2.0m/s, respectively. The numerical result indicates that the maximum current velocity of the first tsunami wave was estimated to be from 8 to 15m/s between the reef edge and approximately 500m further offshore. This range is large enough for moving even the largest boulder shoreward. These suggest that the tsunami waves that were directed eastward, struck the reef rocks and coral colonies, originally located on the shallow sea bottom near the reef edge, and detached and transported the boulders shoreward.  相似文献   

7.
Tsunamis are numerically modeled using the nonlinear shallow-water equations for three hypothetical Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitudes and currents are tabulated for 131 sites along the North American coast. Earthquake source parameters are chosen to satisfy known subduction zone configuration and thermal constraints. These source parameters are used as input to compute vertical sea-floor displacement. The three earthquakes modeled are moment magnitude 8.8, 8.5, and 7.8. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitude for theMw = 8.8 earthquake is near 6 m normal to the fault break and maximum current is near 3.5 m/s. Maximum amplitudes decrease by about one-half north and south of the fault break in the source region. Tsunami amplitudes vary along the Alaskan coast from less than 0.5 to 1.6 m. The modeled amplitudes for theMw = 8.8 quake decrease to less than 0.4 m south of Point Conception, CA. TheMw = 7.8 earthquake generates a tsunami with a maximum amplitude of less than 1 m normal to the source. North and south of the fault break the maximum amplitude again decreases by about one-half. In all the models, amplitudes and currents arc less than one-sixth of the outer coast value within Puget Sound.  相似文献   

8.
The Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) of December 2004 has demonstrated that the coasts of Australia are vulnerable to tsunami flooding. As a consequence of the IOT, the Australian Federal Treasurer announced in 2005 that the Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia will jointly develop and implement the Australian Tsunami Warning System. Effective response to tsunami warnings is highly dependent on public awareness and perception of tsunami hazard and risk. At present, no efforts have been made to investigate and publish public awareness of tsunami hazard and risk and as such, emergency managers have little idea of the likely challenges to effecting appropriate tsunami risk management. We develop a short questionnaire survey instrument and trial that instrument in order to investigate its suitability for generating information about the perceptions of tsunami hazard and risk in the Sydney region. We found that the design, layout and format of the questionnaire were suitable for our purpose and should be useful for generating information appropriate to emergency management agencies tasked with the responsibility of developing tsunami education campaigns and risk mitigation strategies in Australia. However, certain limitations, such as individual question design and format, should be considered before a much larger survey of various stakeholders is conducted.  相似文献   

9.
A general approach for the estimation of tsunami height and hazard in the vicinity of active volcanoes has been developed. An empirical relationship has been developed to estimate the height of the tsunami generated for an eruption of a given size. This relationship can be used to estimate the tsunami hazard based on the frequency of eruptive activity of a particular volcano. This technique is then applied to the estimation of tsunami hazard from the eruption of the Augustine volcano in Alaska. Modification of this approach to account for a less than satisfactory data base and differing volcanic characteristics is also discussed with the case of the Augustine volcano as an example. This approach can be used elsewhere with only slight modifications and, for the first time, provides a technique to estimate tsunami hazard from volcanic activity, similar to a well-established approach for the estimation of tsunami hazard from earthquake activity.  相似文献   

10.
Deposits from as many as 50 large tsunamis during the last 7000 years are preserved on the Pacific coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula near the mouth of the Zhupanova River, southern Kronotskiy Bay. These deposits are dated and correlated using Holocene marker tephra layers. The combined, preserved record of tsunami deposits and of numerous marker tephras on Kamchatka offers an unprecedented opportunity to study tsunami frequency. For example, from the stratigraphy along southern Kronotskiy Bay, we estimate frequency of large tsunamis (>5 m runup). In the last 3000 years, the minimum frequency is about one large tsunami per 100 years, and the maximum about one large tsunami per 30 years; the latter frequency occurred from about 0 to 1000 A.D. This time interval corresponds to a period of increased seismicity and volcanic activity that appears to be recorded in many places on the Kamchatka Peninsula.  相似文献   

11.
Tsunamis have proven to represent a significant hazard around the globe and there is increased awareness about their occurrence. The Pacific coast in southern México is no exception, because there is firm evidence of the effects of past large tsunamis. Here we present results from computer-aided modeling of the March 28, 1787-“San Sixto” earthquake and tsunami, and focus on the regions of Acapulco, Corralero, Jamiltepec, and Tehuantepec, located along the Guerrero-Oaxaca coast. The theoretical waveforms suggest wave heights in excess of 4 m and 18 m at specific locations in Acapulco and Corralero, respectively, and wave heights of at least 2 m at locations in Jamiltepec and Tehuantepec. From our modeling results and based on historical documents and the topography of the area, we conclude that these wave heights would have been sufficient to cause inundations that in the case of Acapulco were restricted to several meters inland, but in other areas like Corralero reached at least 6 km inland. Our results are consistent with published and unpublished damage reports that attest to the hazards associated with great earthquakes and tsunamis along the subduction zone in Mexico  相似文献   

12.
The results of radiometric dating of granitic rocks around Kotanopan near the west coast of Central Sumatra indicate an average age of 45 million years.Granites from the Lassi Mass in the Padang Highlands, Central Sumatra, and the Lampong Mass, South Sumatra, possess radiometric ages of ca. 112 and ca. 88 m.y., respectively. Granites and other rocks from the offshore areas north of Java indicate an average age of 100 m.y.Late Cretaceous granitic rocks are present in the islands of the Sunda Shelf namely Anambas (ca. 86 m.y.), Tembelan (ca. 85 m.y.) and Natuna (ca. 75 m.y.).Late Paleozoic granites possessing ages of ca. 276–298 m.y. are encountered in the basement rocks near Djambi, South Sumatra.The outcome of this radiometric age dating proves to be significant for it permits a fresh analysis of the geological evolution of Indonesia based on the plate-tectonics concept.The Tertiary volcano-plutonic arc exposed along the west coast of Sumatra can be traced to the south coast of Java. The corresponding subduction zone can be found in the islands west of Sumatra and the submarine ridge south of Java.The Late Cretaceous plutonic belt of Sumatra does not continue to Java but passes north of it, running however parallel to the subduction zone of Java. These two zones merge in the Meratus Mountains of Southeast Kalimantan.Sumatra was already a volcano-plutonic arc during Permian time, suggesting that since this Period the margins of at least four lithospheric plates have remained near the side of the active Sumatran arc.The presence of Permian volcanic and granitic rocks in the Malay Peninsula and West Kalimantan, and the results of the radiometric age determination of granitic rocks from the islands situated in the Sunda Shelf area, point to the existence of other Permian and Cretaceous volcano-plutonic arcs east and north of the arcs previously described in Sumatra and Java. Thus a double volcano-plutonic arc with opposing Benioff zones must have existed during Permian and Cretaceous time in this area.The Schwaner Mountains of West Kalimantan are considered to be the place where volcano-plutonic arcs of different ages have merged together. The correlative subduction zones have to be sought in the so-called Danau Formation of West Kalimantan and the northern part of the Kuching zone, the Sibu zone of Serawak situated north of the Schwaner Mountains.The evolution and complex geology of the western part of Indonesia can only be understood by the supposition of the existence of megaplates and sub-plates generated from spreading centers situated in the Indian Ocean and presumably in the area of the South China Sea, respectively.  相似文献   

13.
The major earthquake-induced tsunamis reliable known to have occurred in and near Greece since antiquity are considered in the light of the recently obtained reliable data on the mechanisms and focal depths of the earthquakes occurring here. (The earthquake data concern the major shocks of the period 1962–1986.) First, concise information is given on the most devastating tsunamis. Then the relation between the (estimated) maximum tsunami intensity and the earthquake parameters (mechanism and focal depth) is examined. It is revealed that the most devastating tsunamis took place in areas (such as the western part of the Corinthiakos Gulf, the Maliakos Gulf, and the southern Aegean Sea) where earthquakes are due to shallow normal faulting. Other major tsunamis were nucleated along the convex side of the Hellenic arc, characterized by shallow thrust earthquakes. It is probably somewhere there (most likely south of Crete) that the region's largest known tsunami occurred in AD 365, claiming many lives and causing extensive devastation in the entire eastern Mediterranean. Such big tsunamis seem to have a return period of well over 1000 years and can be generated by large shallow earthquakes associated with thrust faulting beneath the Hellenic trench, where the African plate subduces under the Euroasian plate. Lesser tsunamis are known in the northernmost part of the Aegean Sea and in the Sea of Marmara, where strike-slip faulting is observed. Finally, an attempt is made to combine the tsunami and earthquake data into a map of the region's main tsunamigenic zones (areas of the sea bed believed responsible for past tsunamis and expected to nucleate tsunamis in the future).  相似文献   

14.
The tsunami sediments deposited after the December 2004 tsunami were sampled immediately in the coastal environment of Tamil Nadu State on the southeast coast of India. Fifty-four sediment samples were collected and 14 representative samples were selected to identify the level of metal contamination in tsunami sediments. The results indicate that the sediments are mainly of fine to medium-grained sand and contain significantly high contents of dissolved salts in sediments (Na+, K+, Ca+2, Mg+2, Cl−) in water-soluble fraction due to seawater deposition and evaporation. Correlation of acid leachable trace metals (Cr, Cu, Ni, Co, Pb, Zn) indicate that Fe-Mn oxyhydroxides might play an important role in controlling their association between them. Enrichment of trace metals is observed in all the locations with reference to the background samples. High values of trace metals in the southern part of the study area are due to the large-scale industries along the coast, and they are probably anthropogenic in nature and of marine origin, which could cause serious environmental problems.  相似文献   

15.
In this article, we assess the human and economic hazard posed by tsunami waves generated from impacts of sub-2 km diameter asteroids. Annually, on average, 182(+197/−123) people will be affected by impact-induced waves with a corresponding infrastructure loss of $18(+20/−12)M/y. Half of the tsunami hazard stems from impactors with diameters less than 300 m. One near Earth asteroid will survive atmospheric transit and strike somewhere into Earth’s oceans every 5880 years, on average. In the mean generic scenario, the tsunami from the impact affects 1.1 million people and destroys $110B of infrastructure.  相似文献   

16.
Geodynamic status, seismo-tectonic environment, and geophysical signatures of the Bay of Bengal do not support the occurrence of seismogenic tsunami. Since thrust fault and its intensity and magnitude of rupture are the key tectonic elements of tsunamigenic seismic sources, the study reveals that such characteristics of fault-rupture and seismic sources do not occur in most of the Bay of Bengal except a small segment in the Andaman–Nicobar subduction zone. The inferred segment of the Andaman–Nicobar subduction zone is considered for generating a model of the deformation field arising from fluid-driven source. The model suggests local tsunami with insignificant inundation potential along the coast of northern Bay of Bengal. The bathymetric profile and the sea floor configuration of the northern Bay of Bengal play an important role in flattening the waveform through defocusing process. The direction of motion of the Indian plate makes an angle of about 30° with the direction of the opening of Andaman Sea. The opening of Andaman Sea and the direction of plate motion of the Indian plate results in the formation of Andaman trench where the subducting plate dives more obliquely than that in the Sunda trench in the south. The oblique subduction reduces significantly the possibilities of dominant thrust faulting in the Andaman subduction zone. Further, north of Andaman subduction in the Bengal–Arakan coast, there is no active subduction. On the otherhand, much greater volume of sediments (in excess of 20 km) in the Bengal–Arakan segment reduces the possibilities of mega rupture of the ocean floor. The water depth (≈1,000 m) along most of the northern Bay of Bengal plate margin is not optimum for any significant tsunami generation. Hence, very weak possibility of any significant tsunami is suggested that based on the interpretation of geodynamic status, seismo-tectonic environment, and geophysical signatures of the Andaman subduction zone and the Bengal–Arakan coast.  相似文献   

17.
A series of elevated imbricated boulders were investigated on the Otago coastline, southeast New Zealand, through field surveying and optical luminescence dating. By using established hydrodynamic relationships of sediment transport the energy required to move the clasts was calculated and compared to the historic record of marine inundations of that coast. The boulders are platy in shape and are over 2 m long in some cases, and are sourced from a locally outcropping conglomerate unit which appears to be the only lithology on this section of coast that erodes to produce clasts of this size. It is estimated that the boulders were deposited by a tsunami between 2 and 3 m high during the latter part of Marine Isotope Stage 5. They therefore represent the first pre-Holocene tsunami deposit and one composed of large boulders described on the New Zealand coastline.  相似文献   

18.
The 2004 earthquake left several traces of coseismic land deformation and tsunami deposits, both on the islands along the plate boundary and distant shores of the Indian Ocean rim countries. Researchers are now exploring these sites to develop a chronology of past events. Where the coastal regions are also inundated by storm surges, there is an additional challenge to discriminate between the deposits formed by these two processes. Paleo-tsunami research relies largely on finding deposits where preservation potential is high and storm surge origin can be excluded. During the past decade of our work along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the east coast of India, we have observed that the 2004 tsunami deposits are best preserved in lagoons, inland streams and also on elevated terraces. Chronological evidence for older events obtained from such sites is better correlated with those from Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, reiterating their usefulness in tsunami geology studies.  相似文献   

19.
Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.  相似文献   

20.
The potential impacts of tsunamis along the Catalan Coast (NW Mediterranean) are analysed using numerical modelling. The region is characterized by moderate to low seismic activity and by moderate- to low-magnitude earthquakes. However, the occurrence of historical strong earthquakes and the location of several active offshore faults in front of the coast suggest that the possibility of an earthquake-triggered tsunami is not negligible although of low probability. Up to five faults have been identified to generate tsunamis, being the highest associated possible seismic magnitudes of up to 7.6. Coastal flooding and port agitation are characterized using the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis approach. The results show a multiple fault source contribution to tsunami hazard. The shelf dimensions and the existence of submerged canyons control the tsunami propagation. In wide shelves, waves travelling offshore may become trapped by refraction causing the wave energy to reach the coastline at some distance from the origin. The free surface water elevation increases at the head of the canyons due to the sharp depth gradients. The effects of potential tsunamis would be very harmful in low-lying coastal stretches, such as deltas, with a high population concentration, assets and infrastructures. The Ebro delta appears to be the most exposed coast, and about the 20% of the delta surface is prone to flooding due to its extremely low-lying nature. The activity at Barcelona port will be severely affected by inflow backflow current at the entrance of up to 2 m/s.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号